The European Union imposed sanctions on Russia in October following the poison attack on opposition politician Aleksej Navalny. Russia has now reacted with sanctions of its own.

The Kremlin’s sanctions include entry bans for representatives from Germany and other EU countries. The Russian Foreign Ministry said it had decided to “extend the list of representatives of EU member states who are banned from entering the Russian Federation.”

The Navalny Poisoning

Navalny was poisoned in August with a chemical nerve agent developed in Russia by the Novichok group. For this reason, the EU issued sanctions against senior members of the Russian  government in October. The sanctions included targeted restrictions against the first deputy head of the presidential administration Sergei Kiriyenko, director of the domestic intelligence service Alexander Bortnikow and against two deputy defense ministers.

The EU sanctions include entry bans and asset freezes. In addition, Europeans are no longer allowed to do business with those affected.

Lavrov Hinted at Russian Counter-Sanctions in November

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov then announced potential counter-sanctions in November. At a press conference, he had said: “Because Germany was the locomotive for the EU sanctions in connection with Navalny and because the sanctions affect senior employees of the Russian presidential administration, our answer will mirror it.” He also announced sanctions for France.

Germany has repeatedly called on Russia to investigate and explain the attempt on Navalny’s life. Russia, on the other hand, has denounced the EU’s accusations against them as baseless.

Details on Russia’s Sanctions

According to the Foreign Office in Berlin, the Russian sanctions that have now been issued include “entry bans on German government agencies”. Meanwhile, the German government believes that the measures are “unjustified”.

“We continue to call on Russia to clarify the use of a chemical warfare agent on Russian territory against a Russian citizen,” the foreign office said.

It is still unknown who exactly these sanctions will hit on the German side. Likely, the persons concerned will only notice punitive measures upon entry, a common practice by Russia.

The Moscow Foreign Ministry previously invited the chargé d’affaires of the German embassy and representatives of the embassies of France and Sweden to an interview to inform them about the sanctions.

Russia’s Past Actions

Russia had already responded to sanctions by the EU and other countries following a poison attack on former double agent Sergej Skripal in Great Britain with similar counter-sanctions in 2018.

Meanwhile, the attack on Navalny continues to cause waves: Navalny said on Monday that an employee of the Russian domestic intelligence service, FSB, whom he had contacted under a false name, had admitted that he was involved in the poison attack.

The opposition leader published a recording of a phone call on December 14 in which he posed as an assistant to the head of the Russian Security Council in order to gain the man’s trust.

The FSB described the phone call as a fake and a “planned provocation” to discredit it. An investigation is reportedly being launched.

Russia Says it is the Victim of a Geopolitical Hit Job

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also said that confidence in the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had fallen further because it was again “hostage” to those who used them for geopolitical interests.

In October, the OPCW had detected the poisoning of Navalny with a neurotoxin from the Novitschok group, and thus confirmed the results of laboratories in Germany, France, and Sweden.

Navalny collapsed on a domestic flight in Siberia in August. In the now published phone call, the alleged FSB man said that the poison was attached to the inside of Nawalny’s underpants. The 44-year-old opposition member probably only survived because the flight did not last long enough, and paramedics quickly took care of him.

Several media outlets published research in the past week that alleged that at least eight Russian intelligence agents had attacked Navalny. Only last week, President Vladimir Putin spoke of his sharpest critic but ruled out poisoning via Russian intelligence officials. Navalny has repeatedly referred to the Kremlin chief as the mastermind behind the attempted murder.

L'articolo Russia Imposes Sanctions on Germany and Other EU Members proviene da InsideOver.

Mass protests in Belarus against the reelection of Alexander Lukashenko have now entered their fifty-second consecutive day. The former Soviet state has now fallen deeply into the post-Cold War proxy war involving Russia and the West.

The European Union (EU) stated that Lukashenko – who has been in power for 26 years – must resign. Brussels refuses to acknowledge the election result due to alleged election fraud. Russia, meanwhile, is ready to intervene in the Belarus crisis as a last resort. 

Russian leader Vladimir Putin added that Lukashenko asked him to form a  law-enforcement reserve force, but said that Russia will not deploy the special unit unless the situation becomes uncontrollable.

Why do Russia and the West care so much about Belarus? To answer that a brief overview is necessary.

How Did the Belarus Crisis Begin?

The current political turmoil in Belarus began when a state-sponsored poll showed that Lukashenko had been reelected, securing his sixth term in office. He beat reform-minded politician Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, whose husband was jailed by the Lukashenko regime.

Lukashenko’s triumph triggered a nationwide protest, with widespread accusations that the election was neither free nor fair. The 66-year-old also arrested several opposition figures such as Viktor Babaryko and Maxim Znak, with the latter being detained by a masked man.

More than 100 have been arrested for protesting against the election result. Demonstrations and scores of arrests have also spread to numerous other cities in Belarus.

On Wednesday night, September 23, thousands of Belarusians took to the street protesting Lukashenko’s secret inauguration. Protesters formed a human chain that blocked several roads and caused congestion. Similarly large protests are still ongoing.

Belarus-Russia Ties: a Rocky Road

After the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus and Russia maintained close ties. Even though Lukashenko sometimes annoys Putin – like accusing Russian mercenaries of planning a terror act ahead of the poll and refusing to host a Russian airbase – Belarus needs Russia to support its economy, given that Russia supplies 80 percent of Belarus’ energy needs.

Belarus and Russia signed a Union State Treaty in 1997, aimed at boosting both countries’ cooperation, especially in socioeconomic, international relations and defense. It is expected that the treaty will also lead to a similar currency and legal system.

However, the relationship strained after Russia was not ready to continue subsidizing Belarus’ energy without a deeper economic integration. Lukashenko refused a deeper economic integration, leading to Russia’s decision to suspend oil shipments to its traditional ally temporarily.

Even though Lukashenko is trying to balance his policy by cooperating with the West, he is turning to Russia for help in facing these prolonged protests.

The West vs. Russia in Belarus

What is happening in Belarus may not be overly surprising in terms of the Western response. Indeed it has become common for the West to oppose any leaders endorsed by Russia. Venezuela is one example of how the West is trying to oust a legitimate president using the rigged election allegation.

The West is using the strained Belarus-Russia ties to exert its influence. Carnegie Moscow stated that Belarus has tried to boost its national identity instead of being under Russia’s shadow for the past few years. This represents a potential point of entry for Western influence and involvement. 

Crimea’s annexation by Russia from Ukraine in 2014 triggered sharp condemnation from the West, given Crimea’s strategic location surrounded by the oil-rich Black Sea.  Even though Russia may refrain itself from intervening militarily in Belarus and Putin has urged the conflicting sides in Belarus to seek peaceful solutions, the West is concerned and doesn’t want to lose even more ground in the post-Soviet sphere. 

As long as Europe and Russia continue trying to exert greater influence on Belarus, it is likely that Belarus’s internal conflict will only continue and intensify.

L'articolo Why Does Belarus Matter to Russia and the West? proviene da InsideOver.

In what would normally seem like an unlikely alliance, France and Russia have been not-so-secretly allying with each other in the Libyan civil war. While the UN recognizes the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Russia has openly supported rogue General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA). While France has not officially admitted its support of Haftar’s forces, French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly issued calls for Turkey to cease its support of the GNA.

The Start of Something New

On Friday, June 26, Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a video call and pledged to work together on Libya in addition to other global hotspots, as the New York Times reported.

“If we want to achieve positive results, we need to combine our efforts,” Putin told Macron. “I know about your intention to organize joint work on many of those issues. We will fully support your proposals.”

The two leaders discussed the anniversary of the UN Charter, which is now 75-years-old, and the coronavirus pandemic that prevents Macron from visiting Moscow, which he intends to do once the threat of the virus subsides. When the discussion turned to Libya, however, Macron ironically expressed the need to prevent foreign interference, by which he means Turkey.

Macron Calls on Putin to Help End ‘Dangerous Cycle’

Calling it a “dangerous cycle,” Macron appealed to Putin to work with him in what has quickly become a lost cause for the GNA and its allies. Thanks to Ankara’s bolstering support of the GNA, Haftar’s forces have been locked out of Tripoli and their attacks repelled.

France’s embroilment with Russia and its refusal to side with the GNA are two oddities in modern geopolitics. Firstly, Russia has meddled or attempted to meddle in nearly every foreign state it can. In the 2016 US elections, Moscow was there sponsoring social media disinformation campaigns and the same with Brexit.

It attempted to assassinate a former operative in Salisbury, England, and then managed actually to do so in Berlin. It has tried to undermine NATO at every opportunity and annexed part of Ukraine without consequence. In short, Russia is indisputably an enemy of the West, which begs the question: why is Macron turning to Putin as if he is an ally?

Choosing Russia Over Turkey

Turning to the Libya situation, the West has made it abundantly clear that it supports the UN–recognized government. The GNA was created with unanimous consent from the UN Security Council, of which both France and Russia are permanent members. Russia’s refusal to back the GNA should come as no surprise, because the situation quickly deteriorated into a ‘West vs Others’ proxy battle for political influence over the African state.

France’s defection is more curious, however. It is one part an economic move and another part Macron’s first attempt to usher in a new era for French influence. When Macron came to power, the GNA was still newly minted under Macron’s predecessor. Indeed, Macron invited Haftar to Paris as an attempt to secure a peace accord, as POLITICO reported.

‘Half Naiveté, Half Opportunism’

“Macron was misadvised into thinking that Libya could be a quick win for his charisma,” said Tarek Megerisi, a Libyan researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “He underestimated the complexity of the country. It was half naiveté, half opportunism. He tried to rely on military personnel to solve a political problem.”

It was also an attempt to correct former French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s perceived error in being too lenient with late Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi.

Economic concerns, primarily oil-related, led Macron to believe backing Haftar is the best chance for stability in Libya. The reality is that Paris’ support of the general has put France in a precarious position and oddly given it justification for building a bridge between Paris and Moscow.

Their budding friendship unites not only in Libya, but also on a regional scale against Turkey. Macron has used the opportunity to criticize Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but Ankara actually stands with the UN in this rare case. The French president has also used it as an opportunity to call Turkey’s NATO obligations into question.

“Turkey is supposed to be a NATO partner, so this cannot continue,” an official for Macron said.

Turkey Gains Upper Hand in UN

GNA forces have already maintained control of the military situation on the ground, but soon the Libyan government may gain an upper hand in the UN. Although it was already the UN-recognized government, the recent election of Volkan Bozkir, the first Turkish president of the UN General Assembly, could alter the power dynamic.

Bozkir, a close Erdogan ally and fierce defender of Ankara, comes into his new post with a strong bias. He declared his intention to pursue International peace and where better to start than Libya? It would be difficult to imagine Bozkir supporting anything other than the GNA and restoration of Tripoli’s rightful government which will also be an easy point to sell to the West. 

Macron, who has been positioning France as an international power capable of cutting deals and keeping the peace, will have to reconcile his continued devotion to Haftar’s cause. In the larger scheme, Paris will also be faced with the challenge of defending its new ties with Russia, a well-known adversary of the West and NATO.

L'articolo Macron Builds Closer Ties with Russia, Starting in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Some of the most important living American strategists such as Henry Kissinger and Steve Bannon have long tried to lobby the Trump administration to end its arm wrestling against Russia. Moscow is currently pursuing a powerful alliance with China, and despite several occasions to take advantage of a modern-day Sino-Soviet split, none have been exploited thus far. 

The COVID-19 pandemic might have been the West’s last opportunity to listen to Kissinger, but the die is cast: China has been blamed for letting the virus spread worldwide and allegedly hiding the truth about the experiments conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, whereas Russia has been accused of spreading disinformation and fostering divisions within the European Union and is witnessing its own growing encirclement.

The War of Narratives

Contrary to China and the US, Russia didn’t engage in a global face mask diplomacy, but limited the delivery of humanitarian aid and assistance to the countries within its own sphere of influence. But there have been some exceptions as shown by the huge operation From Russia With Love destined to Italy, and by the cargo sent to the US itself. The Kremlin has been trying to exploit the crisis not to pursue an imperialist agenda ⁠— as various other powers are trying to do ⁠— but to reset the relationship with the West.

It failed.

In both cases, the Russian engagement has been source of harsh controversies and the country has been accused of aspiring to divide the NATO and the EU from within via disinformation campaigns. Conversely, it is arguable that effective information warfare did take place ⁠— but against Russia. The Italian press tried to present the high risk humanitarian operation as the starting point of a military invasion and spread many other fake news items which crossed the national borders and received such a bitter welcome in Moscow that it sparked a diplomatic row.

The Italian press, backed by some politicians, missed the point: the Kremlin does know that Italy is unreliable and no political shift is likely to happen because of a humanitarian mission, that’s why is it possible to believe that the operation may have been truly designed for humanitarian reasons or to counter China’s over-exposition.

EU Accusations Against Russia

In the meantime, the External Action Service of the European Union claimed that Kremlin-linked media are staging information warfares across the member states with the goal of aggravating “the public health crisis, specifically by undermining public trust in national healthcare systems — thus preventing an effective response to the outbreak”.

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean the things didn’t go better and it has been the US Ministry of Defense, Mark Esper, to lead the anti-Russian ⁠— and anti-Chinese ⁠— front. The Pentagon has repeatedly accused Russia of backing the Chinese efforts to spread disinformation in the West to the detriment of alliance’s cohesion, whereas the most popular newspapers are being published sensational articles whose titles are even more meaningful, like The New York Times‘ “Putin’s Long War Against American Science“.

Esper, interviewed by the Italian press, expressed his viewpoint about the Russian engagement: “Unfortunately, Russia and China are both taking advantage of a unique situation to advance their own interests. Russia provided medical assistance to Italy but then attempted to use that assistance to drive a wedge between Italy and its allies with a disinformation campaign.”

Competition Instead of Cooperation

Against the background of the disinformation-related accusations, Russia has witnessed to its growing encirclement from every front: Arctic, Balkans, Eastern Europe, Central Asia.

On May 1, the US Navy and the British Royal Navy conducted a considerably large-sized military operation near the Norwegian Arctic, officially to assert the freedom of navigation. The fleet entered the Barents Sea for the first time in the post-Cold War era, a very remarkable moment. Some 1,200 soldiers aboard three destroyers and other means, including one Poseidon P-8 and one nuclear submarine, took part in the mission. The mission is merely the US’ latest show of force in the Arctic, whose hegemonic relation represents a top-priority for the country since the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House.

Hydrocarbon → Nuclear

Moreover, in the days of the pandemic the US has extended the energy dominance doctrine from the hydrocarbon industry to the nuclear energy, releasing a plan to weaponize the uranium production and counter the Kremlin’s nuclear diplomacy in the developing and underdeveloped country.

Then, in the Balkans, Turkey is forwarding a smart mask diplomacy addressed to Russian-influenced countries like Serbia, Moldova and Bosnia, which have quickly become open-air battlefields where cargoes are delivered in accordance with ethnic and religious criteria. Whereas the Kremlin greenlights loans and aid to Chișinău, Ankara sends shipments to its little dominion, the Turkish-inhabited Gagauzia; the same scenario is repeating in Bosnia and Herzegovina where the Russians are focusing the provision of aid to the Serbian republic and the Turks to the Bosnian Muslims.

The post-pandemic destiny of both countries is being written right now as shown by the already-visible effects produced by Turkey’s mask diplomacy: Sarajevo has recently stopped the border-trespassing of a Russian mission destined to the Serb republic, pushing the Russian embassy to intervene, whereas the Gagauz authorities have accorded Turkey to open a consulate in the republic’s capital of Comrat.

The same strategy is being pursued in Central Asia via the Turkic Council and is bearing fruit. Kazakhstan has recently reached an agreement with the Turkish defense giant Aselsan for the provision of remote weapon platforms, and talks are underway to strengthen and enhance the regional infrastructure network in the post-pandemic to raise the trade among the member states. Turkey has also sent aid to Ukraine, with which the partnership is more and more intense and extended, from trade to defense, from industry to the Crimean question.

There is only one interpretation possible to explain Ankara’s engagement in the Russian space: Turkey is the instrument with which the West is entering areas otherwise hard to infiltrate. Such hypothesis is corroborated by the outcomes produced by the Turkish actions which essentially work against the Kremlin’s interest and undermine its influence.

The Missed Opportunity

The war of narratives and the decision to put aside cooperation in favor of an ever-increasing competition have been shortsight-caused strategic mistakes whose consequences will materialize fully in the post-pandemic. The West had the opportunity to reset the damaged relation with Russia but it preferred to go on with the neo-containment, and it did so despite the awareness of some China-targeting discontent in the Kremlin with regard to the outbreak of the COVID-19.

Now, in the post-pandemic world order Russia will find itself more encircled than ever before whereas China will confront a very Chinese-unfriendly global panorama. The likely effect will be the countries’ further rapprochement. In fact, in 2020 — as in 2014 — it’s the West that is pushing the two centuries-old rivals together, prompting them to put aside their deep-rooted mutual hostilities in the name of realpolitik.

L'articolo How the West and the Pandemic are Strengthening the Russo-Chinese Axis proviene da InsideOver.

Nine Russian military planes landed in Italy on March 22 in an aid operation to the coronavirus pandemic in Italy.

From Russia With Love

“From Russia with Love” — as coined by Moscow —the Ilyushin Il-76 transport planes carried medics, medical supplies and equipment for diagnostics and disinfection as well as healthcare specialists in infectious diseases from Russia.

Italians Are Not Satisfied by the EU’s Coronavirus Response

A recent poll by Monitor Italia concluded that 88% of Italians think that the European Union has not done enough to assist their country. The same poll revealed that 67% of Italians now believe Italy’s membership with the EU to be a disadvantage — a major rise from 47% in November.

As of March 25, Italy has more than 75,000 cases of coronavirus, nearly as much as China’s 82,000 cases. The country has suffered more than 7,500 deaths, resulting in a fatality rate of 10%, more than double the global 4.5% fatality rate. Over half of the world’s coronavirus death toll has occurred in Italy and Spain, as their death tolls top the global rates.

Italy’s Chief of Defense Thanks Russia

“I would like to express my gratitude on behalf of the entire Italian people for Russian assistance at such a difficult moment,” Italy’s Chief of the Defense Staff, General Enzo Vecciarelli, who personally received the emergency aid said.

In Italy, hospital and medical staff are unable to meet up with patients’ medical needs. France and Germany initially refused to send face masks and other medical equipment to Italy, explaining that these supplies were needed in their countries. Although both countries later lifted these restrictions, with Paris sending Italy 1 million masks and 200,000 gowns, the EU, however, was unable to successfully communicate its u-turn.

“On the issue of solidarity, we had a narrative weakness,” an Elysee adviser told reporters. “Europe hasn’t, as a group, communicated enough on the concrete efforts it was making at the local or regional level towards one another. Germany has sent masks to Italy, France has sent masks to Italy, as many as China has so far.”

Germany is Also Helping Italy Cope With Its Crisis

On March 24, German hospitals with spare beds accepted their first Italian patients,” the adviser to President Emmanuel Macron continued. “A lot has been done, so we need to get out of this Europe-bashing, because that’s not right.

“Mistakes were made for sure, there was some flip-flopping, hesitations, but that’s the case everywhere in the world. When we see what’s going on in the United States today, Europe is not the continent that’s the least organised.”

With EU integration and cohesion currently dishevelled, Russia, Cuba and China have been accused of taking advantage to further their political aims. On March 23, the Kremlin denied that its aid was a plot to manipulate Rome to help lift EU sanctions on Moscow, sanctions imposed in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea.

“We’re not talking about any conditions or calculations or hopes here,” Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov explained. “Italy is really in need of much more wide scale help and what Russia does is manageable,” he said.

“This is all about perception,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian Institute of International Affairs in Rome. “This medical help from Russia is nothing compared to the 750 billion euros of assets the ECB is going to buy. But it’s very hard to convey the importance of that to the public.”

Anti-Pandemic Efforts Double as Soft Power Moves

On March 22, more than 50 Cuban doctors and paramedics arrived in Milan to help a coronavirus-hit Italy. Today, the Cuban Medical Brigade is present in a total of 59 countries worldwide. Like Russia, the Latin American island has been accused of using its anti-pandemic efforts as a tool for lifting decades-long US sanctions against it.

One Cuban official described US sanctions as “the main obstacle not only to respond to major health crises like COVID-19, but the main obstacle to the country’s development at any area.”

“The lifting of the blockade against Cuba would have an extraordinarily positive impact on Cuba and mostly in the health sector, which has been one of the most damaged areas since the establishment of the blockade almost 60 years ago with more than 3 billion in economic losses,” the official added.

China, on the other hand, has not been subtle with using the pandemic to strengthen diplomatic and financial relations with Italy. President Xi Jinping, in a March-telephone call with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, reiterated that China wants to build a “Health Silk Road” to fight Italy’s pandemic-battle. Defying EU and American allies, Italy was the first G7 nation to endorse China’s $900 billion “One Belt One Road” New Silk Road project last year. At the signing ceremony with President Jinping, Prime Minister Giuseppe said that the agreement would “build a better relationship” between China and Italy.

Time to Work Together for the Greater Good

As leaders used the pandemic to forge diplomatic relations, the global, financial, health and humanitarian costs of Covid-19 grow increasingly higher, ensuring there would be no nations to lead if political chess games are not put aside for the greater good. A true measure of anti-pandemic global unity can be seen with Cuba, whose efforts in global healthcare has been proven in its decades-long consistence for promoting global and almost-free healthcare.

The mental strain the virus has wrought on Italy’s national identity cannot be left to be soothed by countries who stand to gain huge financial and political rewards at the dismemberment of the European Union. The EU must begin to effectively communicate its extensive assistance to Italy. At the same time, the Italian people must not give in to propaganda targeted against their own best interests.

L'articolo Anti-EU Sentiments Up in Italy as Russia and China Offer Coronavirus Aid proviene da InsideOver.