L’Iran chiude, per ora, a un negoziato diretto con gli Stati Uniti sul nucleare dopo che la ripresa delle sanzioni europee ha di fatto posto fine al Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Jcpoa), l’accordo sulla gestione del programma atomico di Teheran concluso nel 2015 con il benestare dei presidenti Barack Obama e Hassan Rouhani.

La strategia negoziale di Araghchi

Il ministro degli Esteri iraniano Abbas Araghchi, alternando il volto del duro a quello dell’abile mediatore, ha espresso la nuova linea della Repubblica Islamica: rilanciare sull’uso della leva nucleare come strumento di negoziato e deterrenza. Parlando ad Al Jazeera Araghchi ha dichiarato che l’Iran “non intende negoziare direttamente con gli Usa” e “non fermerà l’arricchimento dell’uranio”.

Washington e i Paesi europei, questi ultimi spesso dimenticando le clausole del Jcpoa di cui erano firmatari, hanno più volte chiesto all’Iran la completa de-nuclearizzazione come segno della buona volontà circa il rifiuto di costruire una bomba atomica. Il Jcpoa consentiva l’arricchimento dell’uranio al 3,67% per fini di nucleare civile e per Araghchi questa soglia va conservata.

“Siamo pronti a negoziare per dissipare le preoccupazioni sul nostro programma nucleare e confidiamo nella sua natura pacifica”, ha aggiunto il navigato diplomatico, ricordando però che la formula proposta dall’Iran è la stessa interrotta dall’attacco israeliano a giugno: colloqui indiretti, come quelli andati in scena in Oman e a Roma, senza contatto diretto tra le diplomazie e con un Paese terzo operante da pontiere.

L’Iran non vuole disarmare

L’Oman si è più volte offerto, mentre indiscrezioni di stampa dei giorni scorsi riportavano che Donald Trump abbia chiesto a Giorgia Meloni di tenere aperto un canale diplomatico indiretto via Italia tra Usa e Iran. La sensazione è che la guerra lanciata da Israele e la posizione occidentale non ostile all’assalto ordinato da Benjamin Netanyahu al nucleare iraniano, a cui si è aggiunto il 22 giugno scorso il raid americano con l’operazione Midnight Hammer, abbiano suscitato profonda sfiducia negoziale nell’élite iraniana, della cui posizione Araghchi prova a fare una somma.

Dunque: sì al principio negoziale, no al bilaterale con chi, gli Usa, è accusato di aver violato il patto. No alle richieste unilaterali, sì al pragmatismo. Significativamente, Araghchi ha aggiunto che “non negozieremo mai il nostro programma missilistico e nessun attore razionale disarmerebbe”. Il richiamo agli attori razionali è una sponda alla diplomazia, che sembra chiamare fuori qualsiasi possibile convergenza con chi “razionale” non è ritenuto, e qua il riferimento va a Israele.

Araghchi deve tenere conto sia di chi nel regime vuole usare la resistenza della Repubblica Islamica alla guerra dei dodici giorni come un volano nazionalista che dei fautori del rilancio dell’attivismo anti-israeliano e dell’ala più moderata della politica, a cui peraltro appartiene anche il presidente Massoud Pezeshkian.

La strategia negoziale dell’Iran

Cosa unisce queste correnti? Un “valore d’uso” dato allo strumento nucleare e la presa di consapevolezza del fatto che la guerra con Israele è ritenuta un successo per Teheran che ha potuto impedire a Tel Aviv, nella percezione iraniana, di conseguire i suoi obiettivi strategici: “Non possiamo fermare l’arricchimento dell’uranio e ciò che non può essere ottenuto con la guerra non può essere ottenuto con la politica”, ha detto Araghchi, che una volta di più deve tenere insieme gli istinti contraddittori della politica iraniana e le pressioni degli scenari internazionali.

La scommessa iraniana è che Israele abbia passato il solco per gli Usa con la condotta a Gaza degli ultimi mesi e non goda più di linee di credito politiche paragonabili al passato, dunque ogni sua iniziativa bellica sarà disincentivata.

Nel frattempo, per l’Iran, colpito duramente da Tel Aviv nella sua proiezione regionale dal Libano allo Yemen dall’attivismo militare di Israele, il nucleare diventa giocoforza strumento di proiezione e leva negoziale di fronte al resto del mondo. Aver evitato l’annientamento del programma a giugno è stato un risultato e Araghchi lo ha ricordato: “i materiali nucleari sono rimasti sotto le macerie degli impianti nucleari attaccati e non sono stati trasferiti altrove. La tecnologia esiste, nonostante le perdite”, ha detto ad Al-Jazeera. Il messaggio iraniano è chiaro: Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan sono stati colpiti ma non obliterati completamente: da questo dato fatto, volendo, si potrà negoziare. Ma con passo cauto.

Noi di InsideOver ci mettiamo cuore, esperienza e curiosità per raccontare un mondo complesso e in continua evoluzione. Per farlo al meglio, però, abbiamo bisogno di te: dei tuoi suggerimenti, delle tue idee e del tuo supporto. Unisciti a noi, abbonati oggi!

L'articolo “Non fermeremo l’arricchimento dell’uranio, no a negoziati diretti con gli Usa”: l’Iran gela Washington proviene da InsideOver.

This year hasn’t really been a great year for anyone, but for Tehran it has been extraordinarily bad. Beginning with the assassination of top General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the powerful revolutionary guards, followed by an initial surge in coronavirus cases and then the second wave, the Islamic Republic is under pressure from all sides — geopolitical, economic, health — with an aggressive Washington trying to force it into submission. 

Iran’s Nightmare Scenario: Arab States Allying with Israel

It was in this context the latest agreement known as the Abraham Accord arrived, normalizing diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Unsurprisingly, it was brokered by the US. Of late, Abu Dhabi and other Gulf capitals have become increasingly inclined to partner up with the Jewish state as a means of containing Iran’s regional influence. 

The Abraham Accord was just the beginning. Reports began emerging in the media of other countries in the region soon normalizing relations with Israel. To lobby for that cause, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo embarked on his Middle East tour from Aug 23 to 27, beginning with Jerusalem where in a presser with Netanyahu, Iran was referenced for its “malicious influence”. 

“This is the alliance of the moderates against the radicals, against the – those who use violence and aggression to further their aims against those who believe that we can offer a better people – a better future for our people through cooperation,” the Israeli Prime Minister said of his latest partnership, while taking a clear dig at Iran. 

Pompeo’s Alliance-Building Efforts

In addition to meeting his Emirati counterpart, Pompeo also held discussions with leaders of Sudan, Bahrain and Oman to further rally his cause. Confronting Iran was at the crux of the talks, as the Sunni majority countries in the region feel insecure about Iran’s growing sphere of influence. At the same time, the Trump administration kept the pressure up on the Islamic Republic by trying to trigger snapback sanctions against Tehran, even though the US has already pulled out of the JCPOA. 

While Iran had kept calm as far as the reshaping of regional alliances was concerned, the threat of sanctions did rile it up. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote a 29-page letter to the UN Secretary General, affirming his country’s position that the US has no right to trigger the mechanism given that it withdrew from the nuclear deal. 

“US justifications for its self-abrogated right to the “reapplication of the provisions of terminated resolutions” on Iran have no credibility or legitimacy, and need to be rejected by the Council,” the document read. 

The Current Situation

Washington’s obsession is in trying to corner Tehran could have serious consequences with respect to the country’s nuclear weapons program, as it has previously hinted at enriching uranium. But for now, the United Nations has rejected the US bid and Iran has also been fairly cooperative. In fact, just on August 26, it agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to two sites suspected of carrying out illicit work in the past. 

For now, even the US efforts regarding fresh diplomatic alliances in the region seem to be unsuccessful as Bahrain emphasized its commitment to the Arab Peace of Initiative of 2002 and refused to recognize Israel until there is a solution for Palestinian statehood.

Sudan too excused itself from any such deal with Israel, saying the issue is beyond the mandate of the current transitional government. How permanent their stances are going to be is anyone’s guess since Washington wouldn’t want to throw away the momentum it has already gained.

Until then, Iran hangs on, dodging bullets shot its way while exercising as much restraint as possible.

L'articolo Iran in a Tough Spot as US Cranks Up Diplomatic Pressure proviene da InsideOver.

On Thursday, August 6 US Special Envoy to Iran Brian Hook announced his resignation, although a senior government official claimed that Hook had been asked to step down due to his alleged failure to give maximum pressures on Iran.

The senior official also told Washington Post that Iran had violated a uranium enrichment limit, accumulation, and production.

Pompeo Praises Hook

However, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo thanked Hook for the service for two years and praised him for successfully negotiating with Tehran for the release of two Americans.

“He successfully negotiated with the Iranians the release of Michael White and Xiyue Wang from prison. Special Representative Hook also served with distinction as the Director of Policy Planning and set into motion a range of new strategies that advanced the national security interests of the United States and our allies,” Pompeo said, adding that “he has been a trusted advisor to me and a good friend. I thank him for his service.” 

Hook to be Replaced by Elliott Abrams

The departure of Hook—who will be replaced by Elliott Abrams, a special representative for Venezuela and an anti-Iran hardliner—shows the Trump administration’s dissatisfaction over Iran. This is especially true given that US sanctions did not deter Iran from building its military and enriching uranium after the US left the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 — the Joint Comprehensive Plans of Action (JCPOA). Despite slamming the agreement as ineffective in pushing Iran to actually halt its nuclear ambitions, US withdrawal and sanctions have also not succeeded thus far.

China’s Military Base in Iran

Indonesian international affairs lecturer Yusran told InsideOver that the US is panicking over China’s plan to build a military base in Iran, given that Washington and Beijing have been involved in several spats, from trade and technology to the military showdown in the contested South China Sea.

“From what I heard China is going to set up a military base in Iran, which makes the US panic. Also, we see the sanctions will not stop Iran from building its military and enhancing its uranium even though Tehran allows an inspection from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),” the lecturer at Budi Luhur University stated.

The military exercise held by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) two weeks ago also sent a warning that Iran is continuing to equip its military with sophisticated weapons.

Could There be a New Nuclear Deal?

The answer is uncertain and it is unlikely to happen unless all the JCPOA signatories can sit together to solve the dispute.

“European countries — particularly Germany and Russia which are signatories to the deal — can put pressure on the US to negotiate,” Yusran said.

Germany is seen as the most influential power in the continent, with a stable political situation. European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen is also from Germany. 

While Russia is respected as one of the world’s nuclear powers and military powerhouses, Russia, as well as China also has a good relationship with Iran and the three nations held a joint military exercise at the end of 2019.

Yusran hailed the JCPOA as the most effective deal, signed by the Obama administration in 2015. The agreement stipulates a limit on the extended time needed by Iran to produce a nuclear bomb.

How Worried is the US About Iran?

The US is the world’s military powerhouse. However, Washington is concerned that a nuclear Iran will threaten the Middle Eastern stability.

“Of course, the US is above all. However, when it comes to uranium enrichment, the US may have worried that it would trigger a nuclear war in the volatile Middle East,” the head of the Indonesian International Affairs Association (AIHII) stated.

“The military option will not create a stable region as we see how the situation is going on in the Middle East. Look at Syria, Libya, and Lebanon. Also, many countries are entering the region to exert their influence. For example, China and Turkey,” he added.

US Withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal Sparked Worldwide Protests

The White House departure from the JCPOA sparked a worldwide protest. Trump alleged that Iran had violated the deal despite the IAEA saying the opposite.

The European Union protested Trump’s unilateral withdrawal. The bloc set up a mechanism that facilitates financial transactions with Tehran without avoiding the US sanction aimed at maintaining Europe’s interest in Iran.

“European countries also want to maintain a good relationship with Iran since they have companies operating in Iran. They also want to protect their assets in Iran,” Yusran said.

Maximum Pressure on Iran and the US Election

Yusran elaborated that Trump would use the Iran issue to boost electability among Conservative voters since the real estate mogul’s popularity has declined, mainly due to the COVID-19 mitigation and the mass protest against police brutality last May.

“Foreign issues can be utilized to boost votes ahead of the 2020 presidential election,” Yusran stated.

Trump has unilaterally withdrawn from several international agreements such as the JCPOA and the INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces). The most recent is the U.S announced its formal withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) in July 2021.

“When it comes to foreign affairs, Trump seems to take an anti-mainstream measure by unilaterally abandoning the international agreement. We will see whether his ‘breakthrough’ will help him in the election,” Yusran said, wrapping up the interview.

L'articolo Behind The Resignation of the US Special Envoy to Iran Brian Hook proviene da InsideOver.

As July was starting there were two Iran-related developments that went without the proper coverage considering their international importance.

Big Decision by the IAEA

One week ago, the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) supported a motion initiated by the UK, France and Germany opposing Iran’s decision not to allow nuclear inspectors in its territory. This marked the first time EU’s main powers sided with the United States, since the latter pulled out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (commonly known as the Iran deal). This move was considered by pundits and experts as a change in behavior from the EU countries towards Iran. Only Russia and China voted against the motion, which raised “serious concerns” about Iran’s refusal to “cooperate fully.”

Moreover, Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union announced at the end of last week that Iran had triggered a dispute mechanism in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The mechanism is a clause inside the deal through which a complaint regarding a potential violation of the deal could be resolved. According to the deal, the mechanism allows for any disagreement to be resolved withing one month, which could be prolonged if all parties agreed. As the Washington Post reported in January, the UK, France and Germany activated the mechanism at the beginning of the year, when Iran announced that it was no longer bound by limitations on uranium enrichment, as stipulated in the deal. However, they later suspended the mechanism.

Obama’s Weak Deal

The fact that Iran did not allow the IAEA inspectors in its nuclear facilities should not come as a surprise. It all comes down to the weak deal that Barack Obama negotiated in 2015, together with his European allies. The former American President was perhaps the weakest in US history, especially when it came to his foreign policy. Living in a dream world, Barack Obama hoped that even a bad deal would be better than no deal with respect to Iran. He believed that when sanctions had been removed, Iran would join the international community as a partner, giving up its ambitions of becoming a nuclear power.

This line of reasoning made the grave and naïve mistake of considering that Iran would act in good faith and simply abide the rules of the deal. Iran is a sponsor of terror with billions of dollars going to Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. Security experts have linked Iran to terror attacks in five continents. It would be absurd to believe that a weak deal would be enough to restrain it.

Why Was the Iran Deal Bad?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action had three main flaws. It allowed for inspections from nuclear inspectors, but only if Iran were to allow it. So, Iran has to decide which sites are to be inspected and when. It is like suspecting someone has committed a crime and the suspected criminal decides which will be given as proof to the police and when.

Secondly, the deal has an automatic sunset provision, through which most of the restrictions will expire. Since Iran was allowed to keep its nuclear sites and the progress made until 2015, nothing would impede it to resume where it had left, in a decade or so. Thus, the US and its allies were admitting that their attempt to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons were only temporary.

Thirdly, it did not restrict Iran’s ballistic missile program. Indeed, Iran has continued performing missile tests in the years subsequent to the deal coming into effect, including as recent as after the killing of the top Iranian official and declared terrorist, Gen. Qasem Soleimani. Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East and is committed to building a formidable cruise missile force, reaching 2,000 km, which would put many NATO members in Europe within range.

According to Special US envoy Brian Hook, Barack Obama’s nuclear deal significantly weakened prohibitions on uranium enrichment and ballistic missile testing imposed on Iran by UN Security Council Resolutions pushed through by the Bush administration. By pulling out of the deal, Trump simply reverted to the much more effective restrictions in place before 2015.

Giving Iran $150 Billion

In return, Iran was given 150 billion dollars by unfreezing its assets which undoubtedly were used to finance terror related activities. Furthermore, the Heritage Foundation back when the deal was approved, estimated that “the renewed ability to sell more oil on the open market could wind up bringing $300 to 400 billion into the Iranian economy, bolstering the Iranian government”. In this context, Trump was right to pull out of the deal. Iran’s current actions of defiance prove that the deal was easily breakable from the Iranian part, giving more proof to the fact that the mistake was on the European part for sticking to the deal. And that is the root of the problem.

The West is not reacting in a unified way with a common strategy. The deal has been proven to be pointless and even counterproductive. Instead of joining the US’ maximum pressure policy, the EU continued down the unproductive and careless path of appeasement to a theocracy. It is this division between the West and the failing appeasement policy of the EU, together with a terrible deal that have emboldened Iran and explain recent actions.

IAEA: Iran’s Enriched Uranium Stockpile is Growing

In addition, while the EU keeps the worthless deal in place, according to IAEA, Iran’s stockpile of low enriched uranium has grown far above the limit of 300 kilograms stipulated in the nuclear deal, reaching 2,324.9 kilograms. Based on the Institute for Science and International Security analysis, Heritage Foundation reports that the quantity gathered is more than enough to build a nuclear weapon if further enriched, a process that would take three months. Also, these reports show that the number of centrifuges enriching uranium has increased beyond the allowed level under the deal. Therefore, it is obvious why Iran will not allow IAEA inspectors inside the country.

It is an observable pattern that Trump does not like involving America in unnecessary wars. In fact, he is the first President since Gerald Ford not to start a war. However, this does not mean his methods are weak. President Trump believes in peace through strengths. As Heritage points out in their analysis of the President’s policies, Trump uses his rhetoric to scare, confuse and confound his adversaries. This is balanced with back-channel talks and coercive actions.

Europe Needs to Get Real

However, actions by the United States alone are not enough. Not when Iran threatens to escalate its dangerous behavior unless the EU helps it evade US oil and bank sanctions. So, the real problem is Europe. Instead of accepting the offer to work together, the leading countries of the EU are more concerned with bashing Trump. They forget that peace and stability in the Middle East are vital first and foremost for Europe itself more so than for the US. This division created by Europe benefits only Iran, which has chosen the policy of waiting for Trump to finish his term, and possibly have a more sympathetic President in the White House like Joe Biden, who is part of the establishment who allowed the Iran mess to worsen throughout the decades. Iran is more than happy for Europe to continue its appeasement policy, continue enriching its uranium, strengthen its ballistic missiles and wait for a new President in the US.

Meanwhile, as EU leaders appear closer in their thinking to Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement policy with Adolf Hitler, Trump appears to be the smartest player in the field. He is implementing his peace though strength policy, showing his willingness to escalate sanctions to the highest levels. According to an Iranian estimate, US sanctions have cost the country $200 billion. Iran may say it can wait, but the Trump administration is in no hurry for a deal either, being confident in the effectiveness of its policies, as Iran continues to prove it is breaking the deal.

Future Solutions

The only solution going forward is a new more restrictive deal that would permanently and indisputably prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The path towards this is by maintaining the maximum pressure policy, keeping the arms-transfer ban, and for Europe to put an end to the current deal. There are a few subtle hints that at least the UK is getting closer to the US way of thinking and will convince Germany and France as well. It is inevitable that in the future this will happen. However, the sooner it does the better for international stability’s sake. Iran is currently one of the greatest threats to world peace and Europe is preventing the real, decisive and definitive actions that are necessary to solve this problem once and for all.

L'articolo Dealing with Iran: America’s Maximum Pressure vs. EU’s Policy proviene da InsideOver.

US President Donald Trump removed America from the Iranian Nuclear Deal in May of 2018, but that might not stop his administration from arguing it is still a member of the accord. In an unusual tactic, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is preparing to justify America’s continued participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in an attempt to force the UN to renew an arms embargo on Tehran, as the New York Times reported.

Flip-Flopping

Nearly a month ago, Pompeo indicated the Trump administration would consider easing some sanctions on Iran to help it fight COVID-19. Now, Pompeo is back to waging President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, however. Since the Middle Eastern state has been sanctioned nearly every way possible from Washington, Pompeo has turned to the expiring UN arms embargo on Iran.

The embargo, established at the same time as the JCPOA, is set to expire in stages — restrictions on small arms will be lifted in October with missiles embargoed for an additional three years. An updated copy of the resolution reads: 

“Iran shall not supply, sell or transfer, directly or indirectly, from its territory, by its nationals or using its flag vessels or aircraft, any arms or related matériel, and that all member states shall prohibit the procurement of such items from Iran by their nationals, or using their flagged vessels or aircraft, and whether or not originating in the territory of Iran.”

Pompeo wants the UN to extend the embargo, but in anticipation of Russia and China objecting, he is readying another option. If the US was still a member of the JCPOA, it could exercise a “snapback” provision in the deal. Doing so would essentially return all UN sanctions that existed before the agreement including sanctions on oil and banking.

“We cannot allow the Islamic Republic of Iran to purchase conventional weapons in six months. President Obama should never have agreed to end the U.N. arms embargo,” Pompeo told the New York Times. “We are prepared to exercise all of our diplomatic options to ensure the arms embargo stays in place at the U.N. Security Council.”

Expecting Resistance

According to the New York Times, Moscow has already signaled interest in selling arms to Tehran once again. Both Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council alongside the US. If a single member disagrees with passing an embargo extension, the measure will fail.

Pompeo understands this and, more pertinently, he knows the proposed extension will come under heavy scrutiny when pitched to the UN. Both Russia and China have already called the Trump administration out for escalating tensions and argued the sanctions are unjust.

“I think [the Trump administration] will get tremendous pushback, because the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement,” said Wendy Sherman, the lead negotiator for the JCPOA and director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard. 

On May 8, 2018, Trump said “I am announcing today that United States will withdraw from the nuclear deal.” He justified it by declaring “we have definitive proof” of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons and called the JCPOA  “one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made.” He also said it was “nuclear blackmail.” 

When a reporter asked how withdrawing from the JCPOA would make America safer, he only replied that it would, offering no details.

In tearing up the deal, Trump hoped to forge a new one bearing his name. In the same speech he announced the US withdrawal, he said Pompeo had been dispatched to North Korea to create a deal. No deal has been signed between the US and North Korea, other than a vague pledge to recommit to peace between the two states.

Pompeo’s mission to portray the US as still involved in the nuclear deal may seem impossible given Trump’s own statements on the issue. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif highlighted the perceived hypocrisy in his reaction. He said Pompeo and Trump were “dreaming that their ‘max pressure’ would bring Iran to its knees. Given that policy’s abject failure, he now wants to be JCPOA participant.”

Biding Time

If the other members of the UN Security Council refuse grant an extension for the arms embargo, it the ball would be back in Trump’s court. At that point, if Pompeo isn’t bluffing, he would try to force UN members to restore sanctions, effectively nullifying the agreement. Achieving that would be questionable, however, as some European states, notably France, have taken on more of a mediator role on the issue.

The UK, Germany, Russia, China, EU, and France are all still parties to the nuclear deal and have urged both sides to reconcile. Even as Tehran exceeded limits and became non-compliant, the signatories refused to rollback the agreement and restore sanctions. 

While Pompeo can threaten to undercut the deal, assuming the remaining signatories even entertain the idea of the US having not withdrawn, it would still be up to other states to enforce it. On paper, UN sanctions could be restored, but Washington might find itself pitted against the rest of the world in that case.

What could Trump do if other states refuse to honor sanctions Pompeo is arguing for? The global economy is already wrecked for the foreseeable future, so threatening trade wars would not be as effective. Furthermore, with an election in November, other states could simply refuse to comply and wait until the election plays out. By that point, they could conceivably only have two months left of Trump before a more reasonable successor takes office.

For Tehran, a lifting of the embargo in October would open up an economic avenue in a time when it has few options. It’s economy has plummeted to unimaginable depths and could certainly benefit greatly. However, continuing with an embargo extension would likely have little effect. There aren’t stockpiles of weapons and factories spun up in anticipation of a sudden boom in sales. Tehran isn’t as invested yet in the embargo being lifted.

L'articolo Pompeo Insists US Still Part of Iranian Nuclear Deal in Ploy to Extend Arms Embargo proviene da InsideOver.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has never been interested in promoting democracy in the Middle East. Instead he has focused on stability, which is why the Russian President has always wanted his country to be on an equal footing with the US regarding its influence in the region. Putin believes that American interventions in the Middle East have had a destabilizing effect.

Russia’s Intervention in Syria

In 2015, Russia took advantage of the deteriorating Syrian Civil War and sent its air force and a limited number of ground troops to Syria. Putin’s intervention prevented Syrian President Bashar al Assad from facing certain defeat.

The Russian Government was also one of the key signatories of former US President Barack Obama’s Iran Deal, and Donald Trump’s exit from this agreement has caused him to face a collision course with his Russian counterpart. That is because Putin wants to continue to exert his influence over the Islamic Republic by supporting the deal.

The Number of COVID-19 Cases in Russia is Skyrocketing

With the coronavirus spreading across the globe, many nations were distracted with domestic responses to this pandemic as Russia once seemed to remain relatively unaffected by COVID-19. In March, they only had seven confirmed cases. Putin used the virus as an opportunity to further spread his influence across the globe as he sent medical supplies and staff to Italy and Serbia. He also sold equipment to the US.

Since then, the number of COVID-19 cases in Russia has skyrocketed. The country currently has more than 21,100 officially registered cases and 170 deaths. The outbreak appears to still be in its early phase and has the potential to expand to a much higher number.

With the Russian economy likely to shrink by 0.8 percent this year, the Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov told Al-Jazeera that the oil boom and the prosperity his country enjoyed during the 2000s is unlikely to return. Having lost billions of dollars to Western sanctions as well, the coronavirus could not have come at a worse time for Russia.

Putin’s Attention Could Shift Away from the Middle East

With the chances of a domestic crisis brewing, this could well mean that Putin will focus his attention on national priorities and this will affect his Middle Eastern strategy.

His ventures abroad have not earned him much praise either. An August 2019 poll conducted by Public Opinion Foundation discovered that only 10 percent of respondents thought his intervention in Syria was a success. If the Russian President continues to focus on foreign interventions, his support is likely to sink further.

What Can Trump do about Putin’s Middle Eastern strategy?

If Russia does retreat from the Middle East as a result of the coronavirus, this is also an opportunity for the US to reassert itself as the predominant external power in the region, regardless of who is occupying the White House.

Washington should stress that Moscow should be responsible for rebuilding Syria. As Charles W. Dunne of the Arab Center Washington DC argues, Russia might undergo a trajectory change in its policies with a bit of payback from the US, whether bilaterally or via an international forum such as the UN.

The Trump administration also needs to start drawing some red lines with its allies. For example, it threatened Egypt with sanctions for acquiring Russian weapons.

Russia will no doubt become an electoral issue again in November and both Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden are likely to have different views on Moscow. Both candidates must make clear that preventing Putin from having a free rein in the Middle East will be one of their top priorities.

COVID-19 represents a significant setback for the Russian President’s Middle Eastern strategy, but once the US shifts its priorities away from tackling the virus, it is also an opportunity for Washington to start preventing Russia from influencing Syrian politics further in the future. If Trump receives a fresh mandate from the American electorate in November, he must prove that he is not in Putin’s pocket and match his rhetoric with action.

L'articolo How the Coronavirus Could Transform Putin’s Middle East Strategy proviene da InsideOver.

Battling sanctions, the threat of regional powers and the coronavirus, Iran is currently at the center of a crisis that’s unfolding across the world but affecting it the most. The coronavirus which made its way through China has resulted in the deaths of at least 2,517 people in Iran as of March 28.

Iran’s Coronavirus Crisis

The first Iranian case of the coronavirus was reported in February in the city of Qom. Since then, the city has become the epicenter of the virus in the Middle East. The devastating impact that the virus has brought to the country can be seen as the country is now in a lockdown with schools, universities, markets and all public spaces closed to prevent the further spread of the virus. However, one stark issue that is visible is the fact that the government has refused to quarantine entire cities and intercity traffic continues to flow. Flights to China, where the outbreak first began are also not canceled — putting the lives of millions of Iranians at risk.

The Coronavirus Has Hit Iran Especially Hard

With many prominent political figures having contracted the coronavirus in Iran it gives on pause and the urge to determine what went wrong. The virus claimed the life of Mohammad Mirmohammadi, a close aide of Supreme leader Ali Khamenei and a member of the expediency council. Furthermore, it has also put in jeopardy the stability of the Revolutionary Guard Corps as the virus claimed the life of General Nasser Shabani, a senior commander with over 35 years of experience.

What remains behind are people languishing in quarantine, missing out on Norouz celebrations and longing for the desire to meet loved ones. One virus managed to do what no sanctions or pressure campaigns could. On March 22, the Iranian government announced that over 33 million have taken the test for the coronavirus. Despite these staggering figures, there remain cases which haven’t been detected yet and there are still numerous people who have gone on feeling unwell for days without getting tested.

Iran’s Anti-Coronavirus Measures

A brief description of the outlook in Iran paints a clearer picture. All religious sites of worship have been closed indefinitely. The Revolutionary Guard Corps have been asked to take to the streets to monitor the situation and to tackle any shortcomings. Furthermore, the Special Forces have also been given the task to disinfect all spaces to contain the drastic effects of the virus.

However, there’s one thing which comes to everyone’s minds. Why is Iran in this position in the first place? The simple answer is that it is mainly due to the American sanctions imposed on the country. Iran’s Foreign Minister says the healthcare sector has been depleted of resources due to American actions. He says the sanctions have depleted the country of its economic resources. Was the virus’ rapid growth also due the late response on behalf of the government or were people carelessly moving around? This debate is another story because for now the damage has been done.

Khamenei: Coronavirus is a Targeted Genetic Bioweapon Designed to Kill Iranians

The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei earlier refused American assistance, saying that the virus was designed by the United States in the first place after years of researching Iranian genetics. He went on to say, “I do not know how real this accusation is but when it exists, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medication?” The response by Iran’s Supreme Leader came after President Donald Trump said that the United States was willing to offer any assistance to Iran and a great team would be at their service if they asked for help.

Tensions between the US and Iran have continued to rise since Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018. This led to Iran enriching its nuclear capabilities and tighter US sanctions. It reached boiling point earlier this year in January when Iranian-backed militias responded by attacking American bases in Iraq following the killing of top commander Qasem Soleimani in an American drone strike.

Coronavirus is Now Affecting All 31 Provinces of Iran

Iran’s Supreme Leader who runs the show in the country says his nation has the capability to defeat and overcome any sort of crisis but President Hassan Rouhani appealed this week to the United States and other international leaders to assist. It can clearly be witnessed that Iran will not be able to cope on its own to overcome the disease which has now spread to all 31 provinces. So far, assistance has poured in for the country with the UAE, Turkey, Azerbaijan, France, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Qatar and Russia coming to help with donations.

Doctors Without Borders has also pledged support in terms of an inflatable hospital and masks while the World Health Organization is currently in constant contact with those in Iran says the country’s ambassador to the United Nations Majid Takht-Ravanchi. An unlikely situation also developed just recently, where reports emerged that the United States has waived off sanctions for certain countries while dealing with Iran so that it will be possible for them to distribute the basic medical supplies to Iran. However, that report was denied by the Trump Administration which said there was no deal on the table regarding the matter.

Desperate Iranians are also Dying From Trying to Self-Medicate with Dangerous Products

As Iran struggles to cope with the daily deaths and numerous problems that it faces on a daily scale, this week around 400 people also lost their lives after ingesting methanol or cheap alcohol which they believed would cure them from the coronavirus. At this point in time there are many vulnerable people in the country who are in dire need of basic supplies. The European Union, if it does not take measures and if the Americans don’t remove sanctions then it can easily be said that they will be held responsible for those who were killed.

While Iran’s battle against the virus continues on a large scale, it has also asked the IMF for a funding of $5 billion. Iran currently needs respirators, nebulizers, masks and other protective equipment to face the battle that it is in. While the Trump Administration is adamant on not waiving off sanctions, some Democrats including Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders have called on Trump to waive the sanctions to save the lives of millions of people across the country.

Iran will have to struggle deeply in the coming days and weeks, but hope must not be lost. Rouhani has allocated around $3 billion, which will be paid to businesses which have collapsed, to unemployment funds and to low-income families. The damage being suffered in this battle is real and the countermeasures also need to be comprehensive in order for Iran to reclaim some of what it has already lost in this war and minimize the lives that will be lost in the coming days and weeks.

L'articolo Iran’s Coronavirus Conspiracy Theory and the Refusal to Accept American Assistance proviene da InsideOver.

In a televised speech on Sunday, March 22, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed his thoughts on the United States’ recent offer to help Iran battle the coronavirus, calling the offer “strange” and American officials “charlatans and liars.”

“Several times Americans have offered to help us to fight the pandemic. That is strange because you face shortages in America. Also you are accused of creating this virus,” said Iran’s ruler.

Ayatollah: ‘Our Number One Enemy is America … Its Leaders Are Terrorists’

“Our number one enemy is America. It is the most wicked, sinister enemy of Iran … its leaders are terrorists … Liars and charlatans,” Khamenei was quoted as saying by Reuters on Sunday.

Tensions between Tehran and Washington have been on the rise particularly since 2018 when President Trump withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran in aims to bring its economy down. The other major recent event which shaped Iran’s ongoing negative perceptions of the United States was the killing of the Revolutionary Guards’ top commander Qasem Soleimani in a U.S. drone strike on January 3.

The United States is said to have offered Iran humanitarian aid for a few weeks now, but Iran kept rejecting those offers.

Pompeo Says US Has Repeatedly Offered Help to Iran

In late February, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Washington was ready to help Iran to combat the coronavirus.

“We’ve made offers to the Islamic Republic of Iran and we make clear to others around the world and the region that humanitarian assistance to push back against the coronavirus in Iran is something that the United States of America fully supports,” Pompeo told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Friday, February 28.

But Tehran denounced the offer as “ridiculous” and “hypocritical” and said it was part of a political and psychological game carried out by Washington against the Islamic Republic, the Tehran Times reported later in early March.

Iran has been unwavering in its position that, if the United States was willing to help Tehran, it should first lift the economic sanctions that have crippled its economy so far.

Iranian President Rouhani: ‘American Leaders are Lying’

On Monday, March 23, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani joined Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in rejecting the U.S. late offer and reiterated his position that the United States could only help by lifting those sanctions so that Iran can manage the coronavirus outbreak.

“American leaders are lying,” President Rouhani said in a televised speech. “If they want to help Iran, all they need to do is to lift sanctions.”

“You have blocked Iran’s oil exports, you have stopped Iran’s banking transactions… Your help offer is the biggest lie in the history,” he added.

Rouhani has previously called on Americans to urge their government to lift the economic sanctions it imposed on Tehran, blaming the United States of knowingly hindering Iran’s efforts to contain the coronavirus.

China and Russia Urge US to Relax Iran Sanctions

Other powers such as China and Russia had called on the United States to lift sanctions immediately after the coronavirus outbreak in Iran earlier this year. But the United States remained uncompromising and said last week it would not lift those sanctions, which have long aimed to bring Iran’s energy exports to “zero,” even amidst the current crisis.

“Our policy of maximum pressure on the regime continues,” Brian Hook, the U.S. Special Representative for Iranian Affairs, said in a press conference on Friday, March 20, adding that those sanctions were “not preventing aid from getting to Iran.”

Iran’s Massive Coronavirus Death Toll

Iran is the Middle Eastern nation worst hit by the coronavirus, with over 1,800 deaths and 23,049 infected people as of Monday, March 23. The Iranian Health Ministry said one person is dying from the virus every 10 minutes in Iran.

The outbreak there has even reached the higher echelons, infecting a number of senior officials, politicians, lawmakers, clerics and members of the elite Revolutionary Guards, with a dozen reported deaths.

Rejecting the United States’ offer to help, Iran said it was equal to defeating the virus regardless.

“The Islamic Republic has the capability to overcome any kind of crisis and challenges, including the coronavirus outbreak,” Khamenei said on Sunday, as he called on people to stay at home.

Regional Rivals and EU Help Iran

Other regional foes have already put their differences with Iran behind them to help the Middle East’s epicenter of the coronavirus. Earlier this month, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar offered humanitarian airlift and medical equipment and supplies to Iran despite their tense relations.

On Monday, the European Union also said it was willing to send €20 million in humanitarian aid to Iran to help alleviate the coronavirus outbreak, and will support Tehran’s request for I.M.F. financial help.

The E.U. Minister of Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said the European Union agreed “in supporting the request by Iran and also by Venezuela to the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) to have financial support.”

Iran also said the offer it received from Washington was insincere because the U.S. healthcare system is finding it hard to contain the virus there.

The United States has now more confirmed cases than Iran, though with fewer deaths, with 42,000 infections as of Monday, and 559 deaths. The State of New York is the U.S. epicenter of the coronavirus, accounting for about half of the national cases and 6% of global cases with 20,875 cases as of Monday morning.

On Tuesday, The World Health Organization said that the United States could even become the next global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.

L'articolo Sanction-Stricken Iran Calls U.S. Help Offer Hypocritical proviene da InsideOver.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to marshal the might of American manufacturing. The law, though used periodically for non-wartime endeavors, was passed in 1950 to aid America during the Korean War. At the time, US troops lacked supplies and resources. Through the DPA, Washington was able to provide loans, materials, and workers for companies in their new wartime duties.

‘Wartime President’

Trump himself previously used part of the DPA in June, 2017 to create the US Space Force. His predecessor, President Barack Obama, also leveraged the DPA to force telecommunication businesses to reveal the sources of their hardware and software in an effort to prevent foreign states from spying on US networks. 

Trump’s use of the DPA this week was part of a larger effort by the American leader to portray himself as a grand leader. During a press conference, he referred to himself as, “in a sense, a wartime president.” Those words came after he opened the briefing by declaring the US is waging “war against the Chinese virus.”

As one show of force against the enemy, he announced the deployment of two Navy hospital vessels, one of which will be dispatched to New York. 

Economic Woes Sparked the Change

Trump’s base is his base: MAGA hat-wearing, flag-toting conservatives and nationalist populists who stand by him through thick and thin.The new coronavirus has changed that, though. Under Trump, unemployment reached record lows and the stock market hit record highs, and he took credit for it all, but now he is eight months away from an election and all those gains since he took office have been wiped away within a two-month span.

The economy was always Trump’s bread and butter ⁠— or so he claimed. By Trump’s accounts, he is a successful businessman and reality TV host. He knew how to make America win again by renegotiating trade deals and putting American businesses back to work. It is no exaggeration to say that the Republican Party since Reagan has been a sort of economic cult believing in trickle down economics and big business without government regulations. Indeed, that belief has been a tent-pole feature of the Republican brand.

Trump’s Re-election Campaign is in Deep Trouble

With a failing economy, what can Trump hang his hat on in November? He built a wall that military families have paid for, not Mexico. He removed the US from the Iranian Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) that a majority of Americans supported. He started a trade war with China that hurt American farmers so badly the administration spent $16 billion bailing them out.

Trump has the answer: war, and in true Trump fashion, it’s the best war America has ever seen because no US troops are in danger. The coronavirus has given Trump a new reason to rally his supporters. 

“Every generation of Americans has been called to make shared sacrifices for the good of the nation,” Trump said. “Now it’s our time. We must sacrifice together, because we are all in this together, and we will come through together.”

He didn’t need to mention World War II (although he did) to invoke the image of a wartime president. As Gabby Orr and Lara Seligman observed for Politico, both the White House and the Trump campaign changed their tones overnight to adopt a more warlike posture.

Vice President Mike Pence also joined Trump’s call for sacrifice to ensure the safety of all Americans and the Republican National Committee commended the new “wartime footing.” Undoubtedly they believe the war line of messaging can benefit Trump in the election. Sure, any form of cohesive messaging is better than the chaotic way the administration began handling the crisis at the onset. Wartime presidents, in particular, have proven themselves invincible when running for reelection — no wartime president has ever lost.

Is Covid-19 Really Equivalent to a World War?

The jury is out on this because we simply haven’t encountered such a scenario before. Obama didn’t market himself as a wartime president after fighting the H1N1 virus, for example. The differences between H1N1 and Covid-19 are rather stark, for obvious reasons. However, if it Covid-19 is to be compared to war, it is a war on the home front, something the US has not witnessed in nearly 200 years. 

It is also difficult to conjure up a wartime image without putting a face on the enemy. Perhaps that is why Trump is insistent on labeling it the “Chinese virus.” 

But Americans aren’t reacting to the Chinese like they did with the Japanese after Pearl Harbor. Their anger can’t be conjured up and directed at a virus they can’t see. And Trump’s survival depends on Americans getting stoked up and turning up at polls ready to vote for their commander-in-chief. That won’t happen with Covid-19.

The best case scenario for Trump is that he establishes himself as presidential — a quality some might argue he has never embodied. If he does that, then his chances of victory increase, but he didn’t need a war to accomplish that.

L'articolo Trump Brands Himself as a ‘Wartime President’ proviene da InsideOver.

The Conservatives seem to have secured early gains in Iran’s 2020 parliamentary elections. Partial results show conservative allies of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei are likely to secure the majority.

Iran’s Domestic Political Reality: Low Turnout and Apathy

The Conservatives’ win is being attributed to low turnout due to coronavirus fears and populations’ general apathy towards the parliament’s ability to solve their problems. Some media reports claimed the elections saw the lowest voter turnout since 1979 when the-then Ayatollah toppled the Shah of Iran in a revolution.

The historically low turnout shows Iranians seem to have lost faith in their electoral process. But how does Iran select and elect its parliamentarians? The elections were held for 290 seats of which around 285 are directly elected whereas the remaining five are reserved for religious minorities.

The election campaigns were run on issues like bread and butter availability, rising cost of living, the state of the economy and delivering on meaningful change despite threats posed by the United States, sanctions and potential conflicts.

How to Qualify as a Candidate

To qualify as a candidate in Iran, an individual must be an Iranian citizen between the age of 35-70, have a masters degree or equivalent, prove his allegiance to Islam and must have served in the army in case of a man.

With these boxes ticked, the candidate then seeks permission from the country’s 12-member guardian council. The council considers religious and political inclinations and aspirations while rejecting or accepting a candidates’ eligibility to run for parliament or as it is called in Iran, shoora. The council consists of 12 members: six are nominated directly by the Supreme Leader whereas the remaining six are elected by the parliament.

However, securing council’s approval can be very difficult and the odds are always 50:50. For the 2020 elections, around 12,000 candidates filed their papers to the council. Of which, the council rejected 9,000 including 90 members of the current parliament. The extremely high number of qualifications are unprecedented — most since the 1979 revolution.

Generally in most cases, the Supreme Leader and loyalist council screens out any candidates who are perceived as too reformist or moderate for the regime. But some applications by the less popular reformist candidates are also accepted who favor negotiations with the West.

For example, Ali Motahari, a vocal critic of the republic was barred from participating in elections this year. The rejections have made it more difficult for reformists to secure a louder voice in the country’s internal and external affairs.

Campaign 2020

This time around, the campaign has revolved primarily around financial issues. With inflation at 33.5pc and GDP growth rate at negative nine percent in 2019, the population is eyeing some relief from the rising cost of living and financial hardships.

The campaign was therefore focused on these issues with all factions contesting the elections vowing to turnaround the economy. But with the mass disqualifications of the reformist candidates, the conservatives have gained ground selling anti-West rhetoric. Instead of an reconciliation approach to ease voters’ worries, the conservatives doubled down on anti-West statements blaming the ills on the US anti-Iran policies such as the abrupt withdrawal of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA).

Still, many question the conservatives’ ability to deliver on the promised beyond issuing statements. With the US sanctions now coupled with the Financial Action Task Force’s blacklisting of Iran, the country’s financial woes are likely to get even worse than they already are at the moment.

Balloting and Counting

The total number of eligible voters in 2020 elections were around 58 million. For any candidate to win, she or he must secure at least 25 percent of the total votes. If no candidate gains votes above the 25 percent mark, a second round is held those constituencies. The candidates serve a four-year term before resubmitting their papers with the guardian council to become eligible for re-elections.

Iranian elections can be described as democratic in terms of the fact that voters cast votes for their candidates, but multiple interventions in the form of the guardian council and closeness to the Supreme Leader challenge the fairness and transparency of the entire process.

L'articolo The Ins and Outs of Iran’s Recent Elections proviene da InsideOver.