Though hardly ever prosperous and stable, the last five years or so have been particularly harsh on Yemen where a civil war has ensued between the Saudi-supported government and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. 

The resulting violence has taken over 100,000 lives and displaced millions, largely attributable to ruthless airstrikes by Saudi Arabia, creating one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Attempts at diplomacy have been scarce and half-hearted but the end of 2019 offered some reprieve to Yemenis following a scale-down in the war. 

However, only a few months after relative calm following the first Houthi (or possibly Iranian) airstrike that hit Saudi Arabia in its jugular vein — oil — and then the Riyadh agreement which tried to mend the differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia and it’s back to business as usual in Yemen: horrific war.

Conflict is Re-Intensifying in Yemen

Building up since late January, the conflict has been intensifying with each passing day with close to a hundred fighters from both sides killed in just the last two weeks. This death toll included an attack on Yemeni defence minister which took the lives of his six guards, which came just a day after battle near the port of Hodeidah that killed 18. 

Since the attack on Aramco’s oil facility at Abqaiq — which Houthis claimed responsibility for but the Kingdom blamed on Iran — Saudi Arabia had gone a little under the radar, toning down its aggression by a notch or two. But of late, things seem to have changed as the conflict in Yemen escalates and airstrikes resumed. 

US Support Encourages Riyadh

Much of Saudi Arabia’s aggression is thanks to the confidence boost Saudis received after the US increased its military presence both in the Kingdom and around the region after taking out Iranian General Qasem Solemani. And that certainly looked like the case too when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Saudi Arabia on Feb 21 and discussed the rise in conflict in Yemen with his hosts, including the king, crown prince and the deputy defense minister. 

In a show of strength and cooperation with Riyadh, Pompeo also touched down at Prince Sultan Airbase where some 2,500 American troops are stationed, signalling that Washington stands strong with its allies. The message was heard clearly in Sanaa and Tehran. 

Meanwhile, Ambassador Abizaid talked about the threat to Saudi territory from Houthi rockets, which he traced back to Iran. “We’ve just recently interdicted two dhows down there filled with Iranian-produced equipment that is being used by the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia.  So I think it’s really important for us to understand who is the aggressor in the region, and it’s no doubt it’s the Iranians,” he said on Feb. 20 in a press briefing. 

“…a lot of people don’t understand there’s been an awful lot of missile strikes that have been supplied by missiles, supplied by the IRGC Qods Force launched from Yemen, 400 strikes, as a matter of fact, on – about – on Saudi Arabia,” the ambassador continued.

And just like that, he put the onus of responsibility on Iran giving clean chit to the Saudis in Yemen’s theater of war. 

The Multi Polar Yemen Conflict

Adding another layer of complexity to the conflict is the internal divide between the coalition. Where Saudi Arabia has its weight behind the Hadi government, the UAE is supporting separatists in the south. And despite their common animosity with the Houthis, the two haven’t always been able to see eye to eye. 

The Riyadh Agreement, signed in November 2019, was a major step to bridge those differences but a missile attack in Marib on Jan. 18 that killed 118 men  has cast doubts on its sustainability. So far the two Arab states have done just enough to keep the coalition alive, intervening in time before things go out of control. However, the window of opportunity might be closing. Unless a more comprehensive pact, with a streamlined execution timeline is framed, Yemen could very well see a many-sided and intensified war with strings pulled by three regional capitals.

L'articolo Peace On Knife’s Edge as Yemen Conflict Re-Escalates proviene da InsideOver.

Stark was the reality of the actual decision-makers and operators of all but the Houthis in war-torn Yemen at the signing ceremony held in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Nov. 5. The figurehead Saudi-backed president of the internationally recognized Yemeni government Abd Rubbo Mansour Hadi was present as his government and UAE-backed Transitional Council of South Yemen signed a peace deal following months of intensive fighting for the control of Yemeni strategic cities and ports. Although the man looked incapacitated as the two strong men of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) and the UAE Muhammad Bin Zayed (MBZ) Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, ran the show.

Personal Agendas Over Conflict

It is not clear how the peace deal orchestrated by the two most powerful players within the Saudi-led coalition in the four-year-old war on Yemen will help end the conflict that has generated one of the worst humanitarian disasters since World War II. While the two Gulf nations and their proxy militias have engaged in bitter fighting for territorial control, Houthi rebels and the Yemeni national army have scored major advances and victories in recent months. Last September alone, three Saudi-backed and coalition brigades fell to the Houthis and thousands of soldiers and proxy fighters surrendered in a humiliating defeat in the Jizan province close to the Yemeni borders with Saudi Arabia. It was then reported that MBS kept the humiliatingly embarrassing news away from his ailing father, King Salman of Saudi Arabia.

Following a series of military blows and a series of successful ballistic missile and suicide drown attacks against vital Saudi oil installations and airports, the United Arab Emirates drew down their troops in Yemen. Most recently, Sudan pulled out many of its forces fighting alongside the Saudis in the country amid signs of deep fractures in the Saudi-led coalition sunk deeper into the Yemeni quagmire for the fourth year running with no sign of a decisive victory yet. In August, the Yemeni separatist movement, backed by MBZ, which seeks self-rule in southern Yemen, targeted government forces as they seized their interim seat in the strategic port city of Aden. The bloody clashes sounded alarm bells in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, raised fears of further undermining the already fractured anti-Houthi alliance along with any chances for working out a negotiated settlement to the catastrophic war in Yemen which has drawn mounting international outrage and criticism.

Therefore, this week’s peace deal between the Yemeni government and the separatists seeking an autonomous rule in the south, seems more of an effort to unite forces and close ranks against their main enemy in Yemen, the Iranian-backed Houthis who reign supreme in the capital Sanaa and other parts in the north. However, the Saudi Crown Prince described the agreement as a crucial step towards a political solution to end a power struggle and eventually Yemen’s bloody war. “This agreement will open a new period of stability in Yemen. The kingdom of Saudi Arabia stands with you,” the Saudi Crown Prince told the Yemeni signatories at the ceremony in Riyadh aired on state television.  Despite this optimistic rhetoric, MBS himself failed to explain how this agreement will effectively help end the war in Yemen at large; that is unless he was referring merely to the southern part of the country and the Saudi-Emirati power struggle there.

Main Points of the Peace Deal

The ‘loosely worded and open to interpretation’ agreement, if successfully implemented on the ground, states that all military and security forces will be incorporated into the defence and interior ministries, introducing a government reshuffle to include the separatists with equal representation, and their armed forces will be placed under government control. It does little more than solve two short-term problems; It prevents a war-within-a-war between the southern separatists and Hadi’s government, and provides more credibility to any future government negotiations with the Houthis.

The UN special envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, congratulated the two sides on the deal. “The signing of this agreement is an important step for our collective efforts to advance a peaceful settlement to the conflict in Yemen,” he said in a statement. “Listening to southern stakeholders is important to the political efforts to achieve peace in the country.”

More realistically, the peace agreement will help the Saudis and Emiratis to refocus on fighting the Houthis on Saudi Arabia’s border, and minimize systematic, painful and embarrassing rebel missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities, airfields, military and oil installations which have remarkably increased both scale and damage-wise in recent months. This is due to seriously shake the Saudis self-confidence and their trust in the massive, mainly US-supplied arsenal that has cost the oil-rich Kingdom trillions of dollars and abysmally failed to shoot down cheap-to-buy Houthi killer drones.

L'articolo Deal Unites Yemeni Government and Separatists Against Houthis proviene da InsideOver.

In an unprecedented turn of events, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan visited both Tehran and Riyadh to facilitate talks between the two regional arch-rivals.

After years of hostility and competition for influence in the region, both Tehran and Riyadh have hinted at indirect talks to reduce tensions. The thaw in icy-cold relations came after top officials from Pakistan and Iraq said the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman had asked the leaders of the two countries to speak to Iran on the possibilities of de-escalation.

Khan was in Tehran on the weekend to meet the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Afterwards, on Tuesday, he met with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) to deliver a message from Iran.

Rouhani, in a joint press conference with Khan, said that Iran is ready to sit on the negotiating table but added that “the key to regional issues is ending the war in Yemen, immediate cease-fire and helping the Yemenis, which can be a good start.” He went on to add that, “any kind of goodwill and good speech will be responded with good, suitable speech.”

Speaking at the conference, Khan also said that Islamabad will take every effort to ensure peace in the region and deescalate the situation. Pakistan is wary of a potential conflict between Riyadh and Tehran and has long sought to solve the differences between the two rivals to avoid another war at its doorstep.

Khan also invited both sides to Islamabad, which he said can be used as a neutral venue to iron out differences.

Iran and Pakistan share a 560-mile border and have had amicable relations in the past, but Saudi Arabia has been Islamabad’s key ally in the region. By mediating between the two neighbors, Pakistan seeks to maintain its neutrality in the ongoing regional tussle.

“Iran has always been a friendly neighbour to Pakistan and supported us in hard times,” Khan said in Tehran.

On the other hand, the statements following his meeting with the MBS avoided any mention of Iran. The comments made on the regional issues were kept purposefully vague and emphasised upon the “strong ties between the two brotherly countries,” while adding that the two sides “also discussed the latest developments in the region.”

Iran and Saudi Arabia — apart from the proxy wars in countries from Lebanon to Yemen — have allegedly attacked each other’s oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red and Arabian Sea. The insecurity along the shipping routes poses massive risks to global crude supply chain, as more than 21 million barrels per day of oil travels through the narrow chokepoint of Hormuz.

On Friday, an oil tanker owned by the National Iranian Oil Company was hit by two missiles in the Red Sea. Iranian Foreign Minister said the attack was sophisticated, state-sponsored and was carried out by “one or more governments.”

On the other hand, on Sept 14, a small army of drones attacked the state-owned Aramco oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais located along the eastern border of the Saudi peninsula cutting the global oil supply by almost five per cent. Although, the attacks were claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the US and Saudi Arabia both blamed Iran for the attacks citing intelligence reports.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting proxy wars in the Middle East. However, Yemen, where Iranian-backed militia is head-to-head with the Saudi-led coalition since 2015, has become a battleground for both nations to one-up each other.

However, Khan, following the meetings, acknowledged that both sides have shown their willingness to settle mutual disputes through diplomacy and negotiations.

But for Tehran and Riyadh to peacefully co-exist in the region, they will have to make compromises.

L'articolo Tehran and Riyadh host Imran Khan to discuss deescalation proviene da InsideOver.