As the UK embarks upon leaving the EU via Boris Johnson’s amended version of Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, which removes the Irish backstop that became a sore point for many Brexiteers in the Conservative Party, it is important to analyse what does and does not change for Britain at 12am on February 1st.

The whole of the UK will leave the EU’s customs union. This means that Britain can start forging trade deals with countries that have been keen to negotiate one with the UK since June 23rd 2016. These nations include Australia, New Zealand and the US.

In practice, goods won’t be checked at ‘points of entry’ on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Taxes will only have to be paid on items deemed ‘at risk.’ The British Government would have to refund any taxes on items labelled as risky, though a joint committee will determine at a later date which products should be classed as dangerous.

For Northern Ireland, much will not change in the short-term as they would have to keep to EU, as opposed to British rules, on goods.

However, the Stormont Assembly would be able to vote on these arrangements four years after the end of the transition period.

Furthermore, EU law on VAT will apply to Northern Ireland, but only on goods, not services. Yet they could have different VAT rates to the rest of the UK.

Although many pro-Brexit MPs complained that the original Withdrawal Agreement did not ensure Britain leaves the EU immediately, the Prime Minister eventually discovered that it was the best deal he was going to get in the short-term, and that removing the backstop would be the only way for it to be acceptable to both sides of the Tory Party. This is why Boris’s agreement will also retain the status quo in many ways.

Britain will have to abide by EU rules and pay into the bloc’s budget until the end of December 2020. But because the UK will not be a member of any European institutions, it will have no say over how the club is run.

Also, freedom of movement will remain until December 2020, and EU citizens will retain their residency and social security rights after Brexit.

Passports will still be valid to travel throughout the world if they have six months of validity remaining on them.

The true impact of leaving the EU will not be felt until the end of the year when both sides have either succeeded or failed to draft a free trade deal. Whilst there are many advantages to Brexit, Leave’s victory was based on a narrow margin as many Remainers feared the economic impact of leaving the bloc, and the failure to conclude a deal will have consequences.

In such an event, many have argued Britain would have to face the EU’s external tariffs and this could lead to delays at the border. But Brexit Central’s Edgar Miller argues this is pure scaremongering as the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, the WTO Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement and the Kyoto Convention of the World Customs Organisation commit the EU and all 187 WTO countries to making border processing activities as streamlined as possible.

Yet the border between Northern Ireland the Republic of Ireland would then remain unresolved and neither side intends to implement any physical infrastructure post-Brexit. Simon Clarke MP suggested a hard border would not be legal under the WTO’s Agreement on Trade Facilitation, which allows for technological arrangements to prevent two countries from erecting a ‘hard’ border.

If both parties fail to agree on a trade deal, they need to work hard to dispel the myths that a no-deal Brexit would be the disaster many Remainers predict, and there is scope within the WTO to ensure this outcome would be as smooth as possible for both London and Brussels.

L'articolo Brexit Day: What does (or doesn’t change) for the UK today? proviene da InsideOver.

Despite Boris Johnson’s determination to deliver Brexit on October 31st after having struck a deal with Brussels that is suitable to most Tories, parliamentary arithmetic has made it impossible for the Prime Minister to fulfil a pledge that lifted him to victory during the Conservative Party’s leadership contest. Boris said he would rather ‘die in a ditch’ than delay leaving the EU, but European Council President Donald Tusk has now provided Britain with a flexitension that means the government has until January 31st 2020 to get his deal approved by Parliament.

This is not the outcome the Prime Minister wanted, but he should not resign just because Britain’s EU exit has been delayed beyond October. Another Tory leadership election would halt Brexit beyond the beginning of 2020 and devastate the Conservative Party’s reputation as the only party capable of ensuring the UK leaves the EU. Furthermore, Boris has public opinion on his side. A ComRes study for The Daily Telegraph discovered eight in ten voters would blame Parliament if leaving the EU had to be delayed beyond October 31st, and seven in ten would blame Remain-supporting MPs. Interestingly, two-thirds would blame the European Commission.

Last week’s defeat of the Prime Minister’s parliamentary table to ensure his deal is approved by MPs has thwarted the Third Reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. The latter would have enabled opposition MPs to attach amendments like a second referendum and the option for the UK to remain in the Customs Union anyway. This proves Boris is being hamstrung by Parliament.

He has no choice but to call a general election to make Brexit a reality.

However, an election is also a huge gamble for Boris. As proven during the 2017 General Election, there is no guarantee that a campaign with a central Brexit theme can deliver the Conservatives a majority. It became clear that year that voters still cared about education, health and other matters, which is why pledges like ‘the dementia tax’ had a negative effect on Theresa May’s ‘strong and stable’ message. The BBC referred to it as one of the most important reasons why May lost her majority that year. Any other messages the former Prime Minister wanted to communicate to people were overshadowed by a policy that meant elderly citizens would have to sell their homes to pay for their social care.

In 2017, the Conservatives were confident the threat of UKIP had been quelled, but Nigel Farage has since re-emerged with the Brexit Party that will campaign for a no-deal Brexit and nothing else. They cost the Tories the Peterborough and Brecon by-elections earlier this year and could do further damage to the party in many key seats.

Despite all these obstacles, holding an election is the best decision Boris can make in such challenging circumstances. A lack of a majority has caused the Government to become dependent upon the DUP to remain in office and they are also a significant threat to Boris’s deal having voted against it last week. The 2017 General Election’s outcome meant that Brussels was never going to take May seriously and she had no mandate to leave the EU without a deal.

The odds of victory are in the Tories’ favour. An Opinium poll conducted between October 23rd-25th found the Conservatives 16 points ahead of Labour at 40 per cent. They snatched 16 points from the Liberal Democrats. If the Conservative Party conduct a more sophisticated campaign than they did in 2017, victory could be theirs again.

Last week, there was a majority of 30 in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, and that is without a Tory majority. Boris’s deal could be approved by MPs much quicker if the Conservatives had one. Therefore, an election is the only way to break this Brexit impasse.

L'articolo How a General Election with a Tory Majority Can Deliver Brexit proviene da InsideOver.

EIRE’s Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, told Irish broadcaster RTE that it will be ‘very difficult’ for the UK and the EU to reach a Brexit agreement before the October 31st deadline. This is because ‘big gaps’ remained between the two sides. Although he reassured Boris Johnson during a 45-minute phone call on Tuesday that he would ‘strive until the last moment’ to reach a deal with Britain, he would not do so at Ireland’s, Northern Ireland’s or the EU’s expense. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also informed the Prime Minister that his plans for a deal are ‘overwhelmingly unlikely’ to be approved by the European Council on October 17th.

The Irish backstop has become the stumbling block that is preventing Brussels and London from reaching a post-Brexit deal. Since it was proposed as part of Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement (WA), it has been loathed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Conservative Party’s European Research Group (ERG).  May wasted her time trying to persuade Parliament to accept her deal, even though it was rejected three times. She also failed to suggest her own alternative to the backstop. May continually delayed Britain’s date of departure and European leaders made clear that the WA was the only deal that they could accept. After taking no-deal off the table, the EU knew the former Prime Minister was never serious about the following motto: ‘any deal is better than a bad deal.’

Since becoming Prime Minister, Boris has recognised how damaging the backstop is to persuading his Westminster colleagues to approve of the WA. During the Conservative Party Conference, he stated how he would replace it. He proposed to replace the backstop with a protocol on Northern Ireland/Ireland grouped around five central points, one of them being a commitment to not implement a hard border between EIRE and Ulster to preserve the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

The Irish protocol aims to create an all-island single market with the same rules north and south of the border for farming, food production and manufacturing. This would mean goods produced and animals raised in Northern Ireland would not be subject to compulsory EU checks if exported to EIRE, and vice versa. Furthermore, the all-island single market can only be triggered if Stormont consent to it at the end of the transition period in December 2020. Boris’s deal would also ensure that this country leaves the Customs Union and the Single Market completely. Because this idea earned the DUP’s and ERG’s support, it shows that the Prime Minister broke the Brexit impasse among his colleagues.

Ireland’s refusal to support this protocol is disappointing because a no-deal Brexit will harm their economy. 2 to 2.5 per cent of their GDP could be wiped out in 2030 and it could be 1.5 per cent lower in general by 2021. Businesses are demanding their share of Ireland’s €10.4 billion corporate tax intake reserved for businesses trading in both directions that could be hit by tariffs after Halloween. John McGrane, the Director General of the British Irish Chamber Commerce, proposed that the Irish Government can shore up indigenous companies most at risk from Brexit. But these are unnecessary costs to the Irish taxpayer just because Varadkar refuses to compromise.

The Taoiseach would do well to listen to Bertie Ahern, who is one of his predecessors. The Irish Times reports that Ahern believes Boris’s proposals should be examined carefully before he calls an election claiming that the EU rejected them. He called on Brussels and the Irish Government to clarify their position on the Prime Minister’s protocol. If Dublin and the EU refuse to budge on the Irish backstop, the impact a no-deal Brexit could have on Ireland will be devastating. They will only have themselves to blame if the UK quits the trading bloc without a deal on October 31st.

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As the Conservative Party Conference came to an end, Prime Minister Boris Johnson set out the details of his ‘final’ negotiating offer to Brussels in pursuit of a ‘fair and reasonable’ Brexit compromise. If he can achieve this, he will be able to resolve the stumbling block that caused the Conservative Party’s European Research Group (ERG) and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to abandon Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement. He told a DUP fringe meeting at the conference that this will enable the UK to ‘move on’ after October 31st and ensure the public are ‘no longer taken for fools.’ He also said he hopes to agree a deal with the EU over the next few days.

The new plan will aim to avoid creating customs posts on either side of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Boris stated that Britain wanted ‘clearance zones’ for goods as part of a package of alternative arrangements. Once the UK leaves the EU, customs checks will be inevitable, but new technology should enable them to be kept to an absolute minimum, as the Prime Minister suggests.

Despite this, Boris faces many hurdles in persuading the EU to accept this new deal. The BBC reports that the mood in Brussels is ‘not optimistic.’ But this has been the main issue throughout the entire Brexit process; Brussels has demonstrated its unwillingness to compromise. By abandoning the threat of no-deal, May had no trump card during the negotiations. This has meant she was forced to surrender on many of the red lines the EU issued from the beginning; protecting EU citizens’ rights, the divorce bill and the Irish border. This was a deliberate attempt by Brussels to force Westminster to accept any deal that they offer them. Though EU leaders have insisted from the beginning that they offered May a free trade deal, if they were serious about their argument, they would have discussed how trade would continue post-Brexit, and then aim to resolve those three issues once it was clear what the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU looked like.

Nonetheless, there is still the possibility the EU could agree a deal at the very last minute at the next European Council meeting on October 17th. Brussels is aware that a no-deal Brexit threatens them more than the UK. With Chancellor Sajid Javid and the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, assuring Tory delegates that Britain is prepared for leaving the EU without a deal, the Government can ease the damage it could cause by offering VAT and corporate tax cuts and by reaching settlements, like it has with France, that ensures the smooth flow of goods over the English Channel.

This is why it is in Ireland’s best interest to resolve the backstop. It is predicted that 2 to 2.5 per cent of their GDP could be wiped out in 2030. Their GDP could also be 1.5 per cent lower in 2021. With Italy €2 trillion in debt, and a slowdown in the German economy and US tariffs crippling their trade, the EU cannot afford anymore economic disruption. They have three choices on October 17th: accept Boris’s new deal, veto it or agree upon an extension. The Prime Minister has vowed to accept no delay to the Halloween deadline, and if he exploits the loopholes in the Benn Act that The Spectator discussed, he would have to leave with no deal.

The EU is renowned for being notoriously slow at concluding trade agreements. Even if the Council cannot agree on Boris’s deal, the Prime Minister could still persuade them that no-deal would be a short-term solution, and then they can agree upon a trade deal after October 31st. But will the 27 member states agree? The chances of avoiding an extension are slim, but if Brussels has any sense, they would accept the UK’s final offer.

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Britain’s Supreme Court has ruled that Boris Johnson’s advice to the Queen to prorogue Parliament until October 14th was ‘unlawful, void and of no effect.’ Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn then demanded that the Prime Minister resign. However, at the UN General Assembly in New York, he soldiered on and suggested he might try to suspend Parliament for a second time, thereby disagreeing with the Court’s decision. With the establishment against him, the chances of delivering Brexit by October 31st are becoming increasingly slim.

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox announced on Wednesday afternoon that the Government will seek approval from MPs for an early election. If the Conservatives win a majority, this will provide them with a mandate to ensure that no-deal is kept on the table during the ongoing EU negotiations. But Sky News political correspondent Lewis Goodall tweeted that the opposition will resist one until the Benn Act, which requires the Prime Minister to seek an extension to Britain’s EU withdrawal date and prevent no-deal, has been amended.

If an election is called, the Tories must seek a mandate to overturn the Benn Act. This will present the electorate with a clear choice between leaving the EU altogether under Boris’s Conservative Party, Labour’s muddled policy of retaining the UK’s Single Market and Customs Union membership, and the Liberal Democrats who intend to reverse Brexit altogether. Regardless, there is one party that could cost the Tories a majority at the next election; the Brexit Party. The only way for the Tory leader to gain a majority is through a pact between both parties.

Nigel Farage impressed many political pundits by quickly mobilising a political party in the space of six weeks and then winning this year’s European election. Videos his party have shared on social media prove that they are gearing for an election. If the Conservatives are returned to Parliament without a majority and have to depend upon the DUP for survival again, the opposition can then argue like it did after the 2017 election that the Government does not possess a majority to legislate a no-deal Brexit. Westminster will witness a repeat of the events that have continually delayed Britain’s EU exit. Therefore, Boris might have no choice but to ensure the UK leaves the EU via a heavily-amended version of Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement (WA).

Certain elements of the WA do help deliver Brexit. It ends the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy as well as the free movement of people. Yet it also provides the EU with a veto over when Britain leaves the bloc. The WA ensures this country must remain part of ‘a customs union’, it provides the European Court of Justice with an element of jurisdiction over this nation, and it retains the Irish backstop that separates Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. If Boris wants to make May’s deal a reality, he needs to remove these aspects of her document. It is unclear how likely Brussels is to agree to this.

The Daily Express reports that at the upcoming European Council meeting on October 17th, French President Emmanuel Macron is likely to reject another Brexit extension. With little time and no majority to amend the WA, plus a possible election, the UK’s best chance of leaving the EU could lie with the French. But this is just speculation for now.

Boris is right to remain optimistic. Despite all the attempts to thwart leaving the EU, he still has a couple of realistic options left to ensure this country leaves on October 31st. The next month will determine the fate of British politics for generations to come.

L'articolo Can Boris Still Ensure Britain Leaves The EU on October 31st? proviene da InsideOver.

Following his recent visit to Ireland, Boris Johnson told Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar that a no-deal Brexit would be a failure that both their respective governments would be responsible for. The Irish backstop remains a sticking point for the British government as they try to use the time remaining before October 31st to avoid leaving the EU without a deal. Dublin is insistent that the backstop must remain part of the Withdrawal Agreement Theresa May negotiated during her premiership, but they have not suggested a suitable alternative to this proposal whilst London has stressed the backstop must be removed.

The EU has said it will consider other solutions to the Irish border problem, but only once the Withdrawal Agreement has been signed off. However, there could be a ‘Norwegian-Swedish solution’ to the Irish backstop that both London and Brussels should consider.

Both May and Johnson stressed that the UK is leaving the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union, and if this happens, it will be impossible for Britain to imitate the Norwegian-Swedish border arrangement as Norway is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA). This means it has to abide by many of the EU’s rules regarding the free movement of people, goods, capital and services, though it can pick and choose which ones it wants to implement. It is also a member of the Schengen zone that disables all passport controls between EU and EEA states. But because Norway is not part of the Customs Union, this means border checks are necessary, which proves neither Ireland nor Britain can hope to retain an ‘invisible border’ post-Brexit.

Despite this, one advantage of being outside the Customs Union for Britain is that it can impose taxes on goods being smuggled into the UK illegally. Politico reported on Swedish smugglers loading their vans with alcohol ready to transport to Norway’s black market. Within the EU, citizens can load up as much alcohol as their vehicles can safely carry and legally drive it over internal borders, as long as they can credibly claim it is for private consumption. But because Norway is outside the Customs Union, it imposes higher tariffs on cigarettes and alcohol. In 2017, Norwegian customs seized 322,000 litres of beer and 47,000 litres of spirits. Post-Brexit, it would be the UK’s discretion which goods receive heavy tariffs (if any) and which don’t.

There have been many arguments for deploying technology to ease British-Irish border tensions. The Svinesund customs office located to the south of Orje, Norway, told Voa News that frictionless borders do work, but they require development and lots of legislation. Much export information is available to Norwegian customs houses digitally, but the problem is they all use different computer systems. Also, export checks are difficult to operate when goods in one vehicle are not uniform. For the UK to mimic such a system, it would take a considerable period of time and it would be costly. A report by Kommerskollegium, the trade board for Sweden, compiled a 2017 report based on a survey of 2,000 Swedish companies that identified customs as the main problem hampering trade with Norway.

Therefore, the Norwegian-Swedish border is one possible model the UK and Ireland could imitate to a certain extent. It demonstrates the advantages leaving the Customs Union has for Britain as they can impose their own customs checks on goods they do not want to enter their borders. Though it could encourage illegal trading in the short-term, the success Norwegian customs officials have had in clamping down on alcohol in 2017 highlights how effective customs checks can be in discouraging this sort of behaviour. It is almost impossible to argue that border checks will not be necessary post-Brexit. It will take time to build the technology necessary to allow for frictionless trade. This is why it is in both Brussels’ and London’s best interests to reach a free trade deal, and fast. As Johnson said, both the British and the Irish governments can avoid a hard border.

L'articolo Is There a Norwegian-Swedish Solution To The Irish Backstop? proviene da InsideOver.