The world’s main arms industries sold more weapons in 2018 than in the previous year. Especially in the US, the numbers are rising exponentially.

The world’s top 100 defense companies have increased their global arms sales by nearly five percent over the past year. In 2018, they sold armaments and military services worth a total of $ 424 billion (€ 383 billion) according to the Stockholm-based peace research institute Sipri and its statement released on Monday. The amount represents an increase of 4.6 percent compared to the previous year. Since 2002, sales have increased by almost 47 percent overall.

The world’s leader in sales remains the United States. For the first time since 2002 – the year Sipri has started to utilize comparable data including material from Russia – corporations based in the United States occupy the top five positions among the leading defense companies with sold defense assets worth a total of $ 149 billion (€ 134 billion) combined. In total, US companies make up $ 248 billion (€ 224 billion), or 59 percent of all sales in the Top 100, an increase of 7.2 percent from 2017.

Researchers see an important trend in the USA in the fact that larger arms companies take over smaller companies in order to prepare for the arms modernization program President Trump announced in 2017. The mergers will allow the companies to produce the new generation of weapons systems, and thus be in a better position to win contracts from the US government.

Arms sales from Russia, on the other hand, remained almost unchanged, with the ten Russian companies listed in the top 100 sold goods and services worth a total of $ 36.6 billion (€ 33 billion), corresponding to a minimal decline of 0.4 percent. Five of the companies reported growth, five losses.

Besides the United States and Russia, Europe accounts for 24 percent of global arms sales. The 27 European arms producers on the list sold goods worth $ 103 billion (€ 93 billion), a slight increase of 0.7 percent.

By contrast, the figures for the four listed German companies decreased by 3.8 percent overall. Increasing deliveries of military vehicles to the German Armed Forces are counteracting a current decline in shipbuilding sales. As a result, Germany’s world’s arms sales of 2 percent rank behind Italy, Japan and Israel, but ahead of India and South Korea. It is noteworthy that Airbus is listed as a “trans-European” company in the Sipri evaluation due to being based in more than one European country.

Meanwhile, sales of British defense companies decreased by 4.8 percent, inter alia, due to delays in the arms modernization program. Despite a rise in French companies by 2.4 percent, the UK remains Europe’s number one weapon vendor.

The Sipri report did not take into account the goods of companies from China as these still lack sufficient data for reliable estimates. Despite the imposed secrecy by the Chinese government, it is estimated that China’s share remains infinitesimal at this stage since the country had to establish and stabilize other industries first. In the future, however, China will likely become an additional major player on the arms market.

L'articolo Global Arms Sales Continue to Surge proviene da InsideOver.

A Middle Eastern arms race could be brewing according to Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs. Zarif, the face of Tehran’s foreign affairs, gave an interview with Al Jazeera on Monday in which he contemplated the current levels of military spending by neighboring states while taking into consideration current geopolitical issues that have seen increased involvement of western powers. 

Spending Surge

Zarif’s main point fixated on the spending levels of his nation contrasted with that of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The divide between Iran and states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE stretches back to the death of Prophet Mohammad, after which there was a split in who would be the rightful successor. This conflict saw the rise of two opposing sects of Islam, each following a different leader: Shia (Iran) and Sunni (UAE and Saudi Arabia, among others). 

Fast-forward to modern times, and Iran stands largely on its own, although China and Russia are common vocal allies. The United States and its allies have largely backed two major powers within the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and both are incredibly opposed to Tehran. It is this support with particular regard to weapons sales that Zarif blames for a potential arms race breakout. 

“Let’s make a comparison; Iran spent last year $16 billion on all its military with almost one million people in the army,” Zarif stated. “The UAE with a total population of one million spent $22 billion, Saudi Arabia spent $87 billion.”

He also made a point of America’s contribution to the region: $50 billion worth of weapons sales. US President Donald Trump appeared very eager to drum up more business with Riyadh when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman toured the US. During a White House Meeting, the American leader spent a majority of the press conference boasting about selling more arms to Riyadh and even had graphs illustrating the increased revenue for the US Supposedly, this would lead to an increase in jobs as well, although analysts dispute those claims.

Nuclear Shift

Deploying weapons to the Middle East is nothing new and Trump is not the first president to do so, even if he is the first to lament lavishly on the weapons agreements. However, he is the first to begin the transferring nuclear expertise to an Arab state. His administration has approved seven permits authorizing American companies to lend nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. In a deliberate and clear attempt to keep these permits under the radar, the White House did not broadcast them with the same flair that Trump praised weapons purchases, most likely because they knew the backlash that would come from it. 

That backlash came, but the US Senate is far from having a veto-proof majority when it rebukes Trump. The Yemen Civil War, murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, arms sales, and now nuclear technology transfer to Riyadh have turned many in Washington against Trump on the issue of the support of Saudi Arabia in particular, yet they seem powerless to a president who simply does whatever he pleases. 

When it comes to Saudi Arabia and Iran, the shift to nuclear could have irreversible consequences. By bypassing the legislature and perhaps even advisors, Trump’s support of a nuclear Saudi Arabia could very well push Iran to develop its own program. It is already much farther along than Saudi Arabia and could be under a year away from having a nuclear warhead. It was bad enough that Trump walked out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, but by giving Tehran more reasons to pursue nuclear weapons, he is drastically raising the probability of more conflict in the region. As a businessman who has time and time again emphasized the value of weapon sales, perhaps this is what the American president desires: more war and conflict are good for American weapon manufacturers. 

Shipping Protection 

As the US continues to arm Iran’s regional enemies, to say nothing of Israel’s suspected nuclear stockpile, Washington is also designing a naval operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf for oil shipments. Naturally, Iran is heavily opposed to the idea of an increased US military presence directly off its coast and some European allies have even admitted to the potential for the increased tension as a result. Germany backed out of Operation Sentinel and, lacking European support, the US has reportedly turned to Israel to join the maritime strategy. 

The idea of Israel patrolling waters next to Iran is entirely unacceptable to Zarif and would most certainly lead to military confrontations. Israel is already happy to boast about killing Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, so it has no qualms about going to war against Tehran. The combined threat of Israel in the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear technology going to Saudi Arabia, and its regional adversaries outspending it on weapons create a situation which backs Iran into a corner. With the walls closing in, Tehran may have no choice but to increase its own stockpiles and possibly go nuclear, a capability that the UAE and Saudi Arabia do not yet have. 

“If you are talking about threats coming from the region, the threats are coming from the US and its allies who are pouring weapons in the region, making it a tinderbox ready to blow up,” Zarif said.

That tinderbox may be great for the American military-industrial complex, but will likely guarantee future Middle Eastern conflicts. Right now, a war between Israel and Iran, Iran and Saudi Arabia, or a combination of the two grows more likely as US allies continue to provoke it.

L'articolo US Weapons Sales to Middle East Puts Iran In A Corner proviene da InsideOver.

Every year, the United States Congress must allocate money to the US Department of Defense in what is known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). These series of legislation provide funding for all aspects of the military and national security agencies. At times it can be controversial, such as in 2011, when the subject of indefinite detention for American citizens without charge was slipped into the bill. This year’s NDAA is no different, bringing several issues to light which may delay its passage and possibly cause more conflict with China. 

The US House of Representatives approved its version of the bill, which includes a limit on the president’s power to attack Iran. The Senate version of the bill (both houses must agree on a common bill to send to US President Donald Trump) does not include such wording, as Trump’s party controls the Senate. Even if it were to make it into the bill, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would likely refuse to even hold a vote on it, as he has repeatedly done with legislation that he considers too liberal. Taking it a step further, if the Senate were to somehow approve the NDAA with a provision requiring Congressional approval before attacking Iran, it would most definitely be vetoed by Trump, without a veto-proof majority to overrule him. Going this route would threaten to delay pay for military and defense services.

The situation between Iran and the US has continued to deteriorate, after Tehran shot down a US drone that may have been flying over international waters. Trump rapidly ordered the Pentagon to strike back, but backed down at the last moment after raising fears of a full-scale Iran – US war. Twenty-seven Republicans joined their Democrat colleagues to support the measure of curtailing the president’s war powers. Matt Gaetz, Republican representative from Florida, promoted the idea. 

“If my war-hungry colleagues – some of whom have already suggested that we invade Venezuela, North Korea and probably a few other countries before lunch time tomorrow – if they’re so certain in their case against Iran, let them bring their authorization to use military force against Iran to this very floor,” Gaetz declared during the voting process. 

Most Americans are against the idea of attacking Iran unless it strikes US troops first, and have grown tired of nearly two decades of conflict in the Middle East. With war hawks such as National Security Advisor John Bolton surrounding the president, the possibility of engaging Iran on the battlefield hangs overhead. 

Both the Senate and House versions of the NDAA also feature a provision to provide arms sales to Taiwan in a move that has riled Beijing. It includes $2.2 billion worth of tanks, missiles, and other related equipment, which China said violates its sovereignty. Taiwan has historically had a complicated relationship with China. At the end of World War II, the Republic of China government lost control of China to the Communist Party of China and fled to Taiwan. There, the ROC continued to assert itself as the legitimate ruling party of China. In the decades that have followed, China has maintained the position that Taiwan is part of China and regularly holds military exercises to deter Taiwan from holding a referendum on independence. 

China promotes a One China policy and the US government actually supports this by refusing to recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, yet Beijing claims the arms sale violates this principle. In retaliation, it announced that it would sanction US companies involved in the deal. The agreement to supply Taiwan’s military comes during a time of increased tension between Beijing and Washington, after a year of engaging in a trade war. 

“The US arms sale to Taiwan has severely violated the basic norms of international law and international relations,” said Geng Shuang, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, in response to the bill’s provision.

The US Department of State defended the sale by pointing to the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. This agreement forces the US to defend the breakaway territory, mostly against threats of a Chinese military invasion. 

“Our interest in Taiwan, especially as it relates to these military sales, is to promote peace and stability across the strait, across the region,” said Morgan Ortagus, spokeswoman for the department.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen visited New York City on Friday during the middle of her trip to Caribbean nations which recognize Taiwan’s government. Tsai has long-rejected Beijing’s calls for reuniting Taiwan with mainland China, even under a framework similar to that of Hong Kong. Beijing protested not only the arms sale, but also her visit to the US. 

“Hong Kong’s experience under ‘one country, two systems’ has shown the world once and for all that authoritarianism and democracy cannot coexist,” Tsai commented. Citizens in Hong Kong recently protested proposed extradition legislation which many viewed as Beijing taking control of the government. The measure ultimately failed after millions rallied against the bill. Tsai said the Taiwanese fully supported their Hong Kong brethren in resisting mainland China. 

Supplying the Taiwanese military is likely less of a show of force by the US government in the wake of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea or the ongoing trade war, but more of it simply adhering to the prearranged defense agreement. “Taiwan stands in the frontline of China’s ambitious expansion and faces enormous threats and pressure from Beijing,” the Taiwanese foreign ministry said in a statement. 

Nonetheless, the increased defense support will likely be a sticking point in future negotiations between Beijing and Washington. China is not one to take it lightly. 

The NDAA will not be official until it bears Trump’s signature. Considering its contents and the political divisions in Congress, the process may take a while, as both sides attempt to hammer out a bill that can pass both houses while also appeasing the president.

L'articolo China to Sanction US Companies Supplying Weapons to Taiwan proviene da InsideOver.

Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions continue to inch closer to realization. The U.S. Department of Energy revealed this week that the Trump Administration had approved a total of seven permits pertaining to the transfer of nuclear expertise to the Middle Eastern kingdom. The ties between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Riyadh counterpart, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, have always raised eyebrows, but this time politicians from both parties are irked.

One reason is the timing of the permits, called 810 authorizations. The first was approved only two weeks following the murder of Washington Post journalist and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi. Following international outcries, Mohammed bin Salman eventually accepted responsibility for the killing which took place at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, but continues to insist it was an accident. Only a few months before that event last October, the crown prince was on a world tour including two weeks in the U.S. courting business magnates and politicians alike.

During a stop at the White House last March, Trump and the Mohammed bin Salman discussed a host of issues including Iran and human rights, but mostly the business relationship between the kingdom and U.S. weapons manufacturers. $400 billion worth of purchases was pledged by Saudi Arabia, a staggering number that Trump boasted about during a press gathering. The president made a point to associate the arms with benefits to the U.S. economy.

“We’re talking about over 40,000 jobs in the United States,” Trump said.

Whether that number is statistically accurate or not, there is no slowing down the flow of U.S. technology and expertise to Riyadh. Trump’s cozy business relationship with the kingdom has faced unprecedented scrutiny, not only on the suspicion of backdoor arrangements, but also due to both Khashoggi’s murder and Saudi involvement in the Yemen Civil War.

Both houses of Congress passed a historic War Powers Resolution in April to curtail U.S. involvement, legislation which Trump promptly vetoed.

While U.S. weapons sales were on the rise even before he assumed office – U.S. weapons exports rose 30 percent during 2013-2017 over the previous five-year duration – Trump has been emboldened by unchecked power. With his own party holding power in the Senate, veto power over any binding legislation that does happen to pass, and emergency powers that Republicans refuse to rein-in, Trump’s administration practically taunts any notion of corruption investigations with deals between Washington and Riyadh. Take for instance Westinghouse Electric Company: the nuclear company declared bankruptcy in 2017 yet the company that bought it out, Brookfield Asset Management, spent $1 billion to rent a Manhattan property owned by Jared Kushner.  Perhaps coincidentally, Trump met with the company in February.

Westinghouse’s bankruptcy was pinned on failed nuclear reactor deals in the United States. It just so happens there’s another place welcoming nuclear installations with open arms: Saudi Arabia.

In 2011, the late King Abdullah devised a plan to construct 16 reactors in the kingdom with the stated goal of using it to supply energy for his country. At that time, his country’s oil exports were steadily on the rise, hitting record highs for the decade, but Abdullah declared that the kingdom should use less and export more. While the plan was later downscaled to only two reactors, Riyadh has continued its pursuit.

Naturally this has furrowed some eyebrows across the international community because while nuclear energy can certainly power a nation, it can also lead to the development of nuclear weapons. According to Mohammed bin Salman, it is not a current goal of Saudi Arabia, but in the event that Iran develops its own nuclear weapons, Riyadh would do so as well.

Saudi Arabia’s advancement towards potentially becoming a nuclear state could certainly hinder any discussions with Iran. Trump recently cancelled the Iranian nuclear deal and imposed harsh sanctions that are beginning to cripple the Iranian economy. Thus far, diplomatic discussions have yet to resume, although Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani have both spoken publicly about their willingness to meet.

Surely when they do, the Washington’s relationship with Riyadh, a longtime adversary of Iran, will be called into question. A nuclear Saudi Arabia, should it go down that path, would make it the first Middle Eastern state to develop its own weapons. Presently, Israel is only thought to have the capability with no official determination. The closest neighbors possessing nuclear arms are India and Turkey, which is a part of NATO’s nuclear weapons sharing program enabling it to possess them, but not develop their own.

Mohammed bin Salman has not shied away from ambitious pursuits to transform his nation. At times these have been markedly positive, such as permitting women to drive and allowing cinemas. However, the manner by which he is pushing Saudi Arabia to regional dominance has the potential to harm even the economics of its neighbors. For instance, Riyadh rallied some of the gulf countries to end all relations with Qatar over its alleged support for the Muslim Brotherhood. In today’s world, Saudi Arabia has the power to accuse and punish other states for supporting terrorism, a sobering notion. With nuclear capabilities, it would have ultimate regional dominance and Trump seems perfectly content with this as long as the money continues to flow.

The U.S. Congress has limited options at its disposal to break up the Washington – Riyadh relationship, and Trump has proven he can circumvent just about anything it throws his way. While the 810 permits do not allow the transfer of equipment or technology, only expertise, it’s the first sign that the romance has entered a new stage and it has the power to disrupt Iranian negotiations and regional stability, to say nothing about the continuing humanitarian conflict in Yemen.

One form of recourse that House of Representatives might try is to place conditions within its annual national defense budget, or even refuse to pass the annual National Defense Authorization Act entirely. This military funding legislation must be renewed for the Department of Defense to continue operations.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi hasn’t publicly admitted to considering the option yet, but her spokesperson said that any options available to Congress would be considered to end U.S. involvement in Yemen. Until then, a group of seven senators from both parties will hold votes of disapproval for 22 individual weapons transactions with Saudi Arabia. Although the votes have no binding power, they will publicly rebuke the continued support of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican and staunch Trump supporter, has even added his support for the measure.

Saudi Arabia can obtain nuclear technology and know-how from a number of other states including China and Russia, so preventing it from obtaining the technology is perhaps impossible. It doesn’t have to be with U.S. support, however, and certainly not at a time when it is suffocating Iran for having a fully-IAEA compliant nuclear program.

L'articolo Nuclear Power Rising: Trump’s Relationship with Saudi Arabia Called into Question proviene da InsideOver.