Nine months ago, Germany hosted the first Libya Conference in Berlin. On Monday, October 5, it was time to assess how to advance stability further in the war-torn North African nation. However, although a ceasefire is currently in place, various actors are continuing to pursue their interests in the Libyan conflict and standing in the way of progress.

Libya’s War-Torn Reality

The people of Libya long for a better future. Their country has degenerated into a hell, used as a pawn by international actors. Crime is rising. The economy is in ruins, and jobs are scarce. It is no surprise that the people of Tripoli have been protesting against the government, against mismanagement, and the infrastructure’s deterioration for weeks. The fact that two protesters were recently shot dead by government security forces only fueled their anger.

After nearly a decade of war and chaos, Libyans long for peace, security, and economic prosperity. The previous month provided some hope. Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA) Fayez al-Sarraj announced his resignation at the end of the month. His power was crumbling, and thus the resignation is not necessarily entirely voluntary. Moreover, Sarraj fell out with his interior minister and felt pressure from armed groups within Tripoli.

Even Sarraj’s recent military successes did not help. With the help of Turkey, he was able to stop the offensive of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and its leader Khalifa Haftar who were advancing on the capital. Sarraj even forced Haftar’s troops into retreat. As a result, Sarraj can now control the flow of refugees to Europe – powerful leverage, as his supporter Erdogan knows.

Showdown in Sirte

Hafter, on the other hand, has maintained control over the rich oil reserves in the east. The two camps now face each other on the front-line town of Sirte. Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt support Haftar as their interest lies – among other things – in Libya’s gas and oil.

However, fighting Islamic militias is another important reason for them. Hence, Russia and the Emirates have sent military equipment and mercenaries into the region despite the arms embargo.

Despite all the saber-rattling on both sides, and the staggering amount of weapons and mercenaries sent to Libya, no one is interested in an escalation, let alone a protracted proxy war with Turkey on Libyan soil. It is one of the reasons why a window opened for diplomacy in August when both sides, although Haftar only agreed to a ceasefire and negotiations under strong international pressure.

The Battle for Power and Money

Since then, envoys from both warring parties have been looking for compromise lines in Morocco and Egypt through mediation. It is a tough battle for power and money. After months of blockade, Haftar has now resumed oil production. Both sides should benefit from it. An exchange of prisoners is also on the agenda, as is the formation of a unity government and, in the end, elections.

Numerous questions remain, however, particularly regarding the military on both sides. Who will be in charge of the Libyan army? How will the military units of the West and the East be integrated? Will they play a similar role as the armed militias are currently playing within the security apparatus? These are tough questions, and the potential process will need to find answers for them.

Aiming for a Diplomatic Solution

Nonetheless, the negotiating climate at the recent meeting was described as constructive. Representatives from 16 states and international organizations seek to take ownership of the situation starting on October 5 at an international conference.  This comes almost nine months after the Berlin Libya Conference, at which the participants could only agree on soft summit resolutions.

All actors involved are cognizant that a political solution’s chances of success are significantly better than a military solution. A quick breakthrough is nonetheless unlikely. The conflict is too complicated, the interests too conflicting, the mistrust too great. However, the chances of a peaceful settlement in the crisis-ridden country have never been as great, for better or worse.

L'articolo The Quest for Stability in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Military and police teams from Libya’s warring rivals held UN-brokered security talks in Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Hurghada this week. The talks came amid international pressure on the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar and their regional backers to avert an attack on the oil-rich city of Sirte.

What Did the Two Sides Agree On?

The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said a host of recommendations have been reached during the discussions to be presented to UN-brokered military talks in Geneva next week. This includes the release of all prisoners captured during military operations before the end of October and a halt of all hate speech campaigns.

The two sides also agreed to expedite the re-opening of air traffic and land transportation lines across all Libyan cities to ensure freedom of movement for all citizens. The talks also tackled the tasks and responsibilities of the Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG) in order to ensure uninterrupted oil production. UNSMIL said the two Libyan sides have demonstrated “a positive and proactive attitude aimed at de-escalation of the situation in central Libya.”

Efforts to Counteract Turkey’s Increased Intervention in Libya

The Hurghada talks were part of international efforts to reduce Turkey’s increasing military intervention in the Libyan conflict, which has irked several regional players, including Libya’s next-door neighbor Egypt.

“The Libyans reject Turkey’s blatant interference in the Libyan affairs and we are looking for solutions to unify the Libyan military establishment,” Major-General Khaled Mahjoub, the head of LNA mobilization department, said. “There is an agreement to disarm the militias and maintain the weapons in the hands of the Libyan army only,” he said.

The Pentagon estimates that Turkey has sent at least 5,000 Syrian mercenaries to Libya to fight on the side of the GNA. However, according to Mahjoub, Turkey-backed foreign mercenaries have already begun to leave Libya. “Around 3,000 mercenaries have left the country recently,” he said.

Libya’s Civil War

Libya plunged into civil war in 2011 after a NATO-backed uprising led to the ouster and subsequent killing of strongman Muammar Gaddafi, with two rival administrations emerging in Tripoli and the eastern city of Tobruk.

The situation escalated last year when Turkey signed controversial maritime and security agreements with the GNA, in response to a military offensive launched by Haftar on the capital Tripoli. The Turkish military support to the GNA helped it tip the balance of war in its favor, forcing Haftar’s LNA to retreat to Sirte.

The Turkish military intervention, however, has prompted Egypt to threaten to militarily intervene in the Libyan conflict. The Egyptian threat has forced the Turkey-backed GNA forces to halt their advance towards Sirte amid a military build-up on the frontlines.

As a result of the threat, intensive diplomatic efforts began to intensify in an attempt to avert an escalation of the military situation on the ground and push the warring rivals to reach a political settlement to their conflict. These efforts resulted in mutual ceasefire announcements by GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and Speaker of the Tobruk-based Parliament Aguila Saleh.

The Bouznika Talks

As the situation on the ground remained precarious, delegations from the two rival administrations held UN-brokered talks in the Moroccan city of Bouznika to explore ways of de-escalating the situation and reaching a roadmap for elections. The two rivals plan to start a second round of the talks this week.

In a move that helped to ease tension, Haftar announced on Sept. 18 the resumption of oil production and exports on condition that the revenues are fairly distributed among the three Libyan regions and not used with the aim of funding militias or in operations marred by corruption.

An agreement was also concluded with the GNA to form a committee tasked with overseeing the distribution of oil revenues and their proper use until the end of the current year, as well as to unify the exchange rate, open lines of credits in banks and carry out bank clearing operations away from any kind of discrimination.

Egypt’s Perspective

The Egyptian government, which backs Haftar, also invited the strongman and his ally Saleh to Cairo in a move aimed to build on efforts to reach a political settlement to the conflict in Libya. “Egypt seeks to avoid an escalation of the military situation and grant all Libyan parties the opportunity to reach a Libyan-Libyan peaceful solution,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said.

In June, Egypt proposed an initiative to solve the crisis in Libya following the GNA military gains on the ground. This initiative called for a ceasefire, respect of an arms embargo on Libya and working towards a political settlement in the war-torn country. This initiative, however, was quickly rejected with the GNA and its backer Turkey.

With international involvement, the situation in Libya has stopped from escalating for now. But the question now remains about how far the foreign backers, particularly Turkey, are willing to help deescalate the situation and reach a permanent settlement to the conflict in the oil-rich country.

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The Turkish and Qatari Defense Ministers recently visited Tripoli to meet the head of the Government of National Accord, Fayez al-Sarraj. Specifically, Hulusi Akar and Khalid Bin-Muhammad al-Atiyyah discussed what kind of support Doha and Ankara could provide to the Tripoli-based government. The discussion was held with the Libyan leader and other key figures of the GNA administration.

After examining the trilateral military cooperation agreement that was eventually signed, we can understand more about the long-term Turkish plans increasing their influence in North Africa.

Main Objectives of the Meeting

Akar was accompanied by Turkish Chief of General Staff Yaşar Güler. Both played a crucial role in the outcome of the meeting. Libyan Deputy Defense Minister Saladin En-Nemrush also took part in the meetings and provided insights into the current readiness of GNA forces in terms of structure, personnel, equipment, and operational capabilities. The defense ministers of the supporting countries agreed to provide the GNA forces with cross-functional support, from logistics and military equipment to operational planning and training through expat military advisors.

The long-term objectives of this strategic partnership include the complete restructuring of the quasi-organized GNA forces to build them into an appropriately structured and fully operational army. One of the largest challenges of the Libyan framework is related to the numerous autonomous military subgroups belonging to different local tribes and clans.

All these separate armed elements will be streamlined and structured in a unique entity that will set the base for the Libyan Armed Forces under the current GNA. This was the primary purpose of the agreement, which sets the strengthening of al-Sarraj-affiliated forces as one of its main conditions. Ankara and Doha are expected to play a key role in achieving this goal, as outlined in the recent deal.

Long-Term Turkish Plans

Shortly after the deal, Turkish President Recep Erdogan mentioned that Turkey is willing to officially deploy Turkish forces to Tripoli, if the GNA asks for it. So far Ankara has been supporting the Sarraj forces in a rather informal context, considering the standing ban on foreign military involvement in the Libyan conflict. A recent key fact that has probably gone unnoticed was the transfer of approximately 190 cadets to Turkey who survived a massive assault from Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) forces last July. All 190 surviving cadets have moved to Turkey to complete their studies.

Examining the Libyan-Turkish-Qatari deal we can clearly see that Erdogan is seeking to tighten his grip on Libya, so that if and when the GNA forces take control of the country, Ankara will have already secured a de facto devoted ally and another military base in the Mediterranean.

Erdogan’s plan will be materialized through a long process, where several different moves need to be made, one step at a time. Following the memoranda of understanding and the maritime deal with the GNA in the previous months, the latest trilateral deal indicates that Ankara is looking into engaging in the essential infrastructure of the state, which will potentially emerge once the civil war is over.

Turkey is actually looking to build one of the key institutions — the armed forces — in the part of Libya under the rule of the GNA, in a similar way that they helped the Azerbaijani army to be built back up in 1993. Taking advantage of the long and bitter Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Ankara stepped in, providing the necessary military assistance and guidance to the newly-sovereign Baku. Since then, Azerbaijan has been politically and militarily dependent on Turkey to a great extent. The same scenario is now taking place in Libya, where Ankara is gradually compiling the necessary political capital to be utilized under the right circumstances at a later date.

The Role of Qatar

Doha has been taking steps to boost the Qatari armed forces since 2015. Further to the mandatory military conscription applying to all the country nationals, a Turkish military base was also established back in 2015. It’s a base that has been building up year by year to eventually turn into a robust force under the Qatar-Turkey Combined Joint Force Command. It combines elements of army, navy and air force. The Turkish presence, alongside the deployed US forces in Al Udeid Air Base are two factors that have significantly contributed to the operational capabilities and deterrence capacity of the Qatari military.

Following the 2017 Qatari exodus from the Gulf Cooperation Council, Doha has been somewhat isolated in the region. Therefore it is completely reasonable for Qatar to seek expansion of its international standing and influence, through new alliances. This is especially true when Turkey, a long-term and trusted ally, is setting the scene.

However the planned Qatari military participation in the Libyan conflict by providing army experts and consultants, according to the deal, is rather questionable for a country who is partly relying its domestic defense on foreign deployed forces. Looking further into the latest pact, we can see that the Qatari involvement in the trilateral deal will come mainly in terms of financial assistance and material support. If Turkish military involvement has tipped the balance in favor of Sarraj, then the Qatari economy should be seen as the vital leverage to further push the power of these mutual Turkish and GNA claims at this crucial point of the battle.

The strong political and security ties that Ankara has built with Doha are now being utilized in a moment when the Turkish economy is stagnating. Turkey has used its close diplomatic relations with Qatar — one of the richest Gulf states — to secure further funding for the Libya front. Considering the currently grim position of the Turkish economy, the latest Qatari involvement in Libya and the ensuing tripartite agreement comes as a life-saving boost for Turkish plans in North Africa.

L'articolo Turkey’s Strategic Plan for Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Germany, France and Italy are increasing pressure to resolve the conflict in Libya, at least officially: Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Marcon and Italy’s Guiseppe Conte have stated openly that states that violate the UN arms embargo on Libya should be seriously punished. The only question now is how exactly this would happen.

Will Sanctions Be Enough to Enforce a Libya Ceasefire?

Germany, France and Italy have threatened to punish countries that fail to abide by the UN arms embargo on Libya. Chancellor Merkel, President Macron and Premier Conte said on the sidelines in a joint statement that they were ready to “consider imposing sanctions” should violations of the embargo at sea, on land or in the air continue of the EU special summit was published.

However, names of states that could be considered for sanctions are not mentioned in the declaration, even if the suspects are widely known. France, for example, has long accused Turkey of violating the arms embargo by delivering arms to the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). Turkey, in turn, accuses countries such as the United Arab Emirates and France of supplying the opposite side of the Libyan National Army (LNA) with weapons.

What About Operation Irini?

The EU launched Operation Irini in spring to monitor the Libyan arms embargo. The primary aim of the military operation is to stabilize Libya and to support the UN-led political peace process. In addition to arms smuggling, the EU operation is designed to prevent illegal oil smuggling. Moreover, the Libyan Coast Guard and Navy personnel will continue to be trained to help break the business model of trafficking and trafficking networks.

If the sanctions were actually enforced they would presumably be imposed on persons or companies involved in arms deliveries to Libya in the EU framework. Those affected should fear asset freezes and EU entry bans. The punitive measures could be based on reports from the United Nations on violations of sanctions. In this way, the knowledge gained during the EU operation Irini is also transmitted to New York for evaluation.

The Reality of the Libyan War

In Libya, an internationally recognized but almost powerless government is fighting in the capital, Tripoli, and a counter-parliament in the east of the country is dominating led by General Khalifa Haftar. The latter control the oil wells in the east and recently tried to conquer Tripoli, which did not succeed. For weeks, both sides have been preparing for a fight for the city of Sirte, which is essential for oil exports and is considered key to the outcome of the war.

Both warring parties are supported logistically, financially and militarily by foreign actors. Turkey and Qatar are behind the GNA government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Haftar and the LNA are supported by Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The USA had also helped Haftar in the fight against the Islamic State.

Proxy War Intensifies

Some of the foreign countries that support one of the warring parties are becoming increasingly aggressive in the Libyan civil war. The US military recently announced that Russian mercenaries were said to have laid landmines around Tripoli. The so-called Wagner group, a private unit equipped by the Kremlin, made 800 to 1,200 fighters available to Haftar, according to UN experts. Russia, as usual, denies playing a role in the conflict.

The situation could now come to a head again, as threats have been coming from Egypt since Monday that Cairo will go straight into the conflict after Parliament approves an intervention. In keeping with this, the Haftar camp in Egypt recently called for military operations to begin in the neighboring country.

The Importance of Egypt’s Role

The parliamentary mandate only provides that the Egyptian armed forces only have the right to intervene in Libya if they see “an immediate threat to security.” In Egypt’s view, however, this seems to be the case. Turkey has invaded Libya militarily, has occupied the country and is now threatening Egypt, Cairo claims.

Last month, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt warned that an attack by Libyan government forces on Sirte was a “red line.” Haftar’s troops have held the city so far but were pushed back with Turkish help after their failed offensive on Tripoli.

Civil war has raged in Libya since the downfall of long-term ruler Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. After a temporary relaxation of the situation, the violence escalated again. In 2014, a general election failed, and numerous militias began to fight for influence. By now the violence has spiraled completely out of control. While Europe has a key interest in stabilizing the country, Russia and Turkey, in particular, are continuously attempting to subvert European effort – albeit for different reasons.

L'articolo EU Seeks to Impose Sanctions Over Libya Ceasefire Violations proviene da InsideOver.

As tension heats up in Libya, the conflicting sides are finding themselves in a race against time. Despite the unceasing negotiations and the international pleads for ceasefire, Government of National Accord (GNA)-affiliated forces are getting ready for a major offensive in Sirte, the most crucial strategic point for Libyan National Army (LNA) leader General Khalifa Haftar at the moment.

Over the last few months, a massive recruitment operation has been taking place in several areas of Syria, as a desperate effort by the LNA to bolster its manpower and establish a new balance in the operational theater across Libya. The deployment of foreign fighters to Libya is also closely related to the proxy nature of the Libyan conflict, with the roles of Turkey and Russia being  especially fundamental.

Ankara Deployed First Mercenary Forces From Syria to Libya

Haftar wasn’t the first to use mercenaries in the Libyan conflict. By late 2019, when Turkish President Recep Erdogan made clear that the Turkish aspirations towards Libya were far from superficial or simplistic. To that end, a significant number of Syrian rebels were recruited by Turkey and sent to Tripoli. The individuals to take over this mission had previously formed a part of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, fighting against President Bashar al Assad in Syria, and allegedly participating in anti-government and anti-Kurdish operations in Afrin, Azaz, Idlib, Manbij and tal Abyad.

Even though the GNA and Turkey have consistently denied that Syrians fighters were transferred to Libya, according to reliable reports thousands of Syrian rebels who had been formerly fighting in the Syrian civil war have joined the Libyan conflict over the last six months. The foreign fighters are lured by a mixture of religious and political motivations, alongside an attractive financial deal. Ankara is playing the card of radical Islamism and adding support to the transnational movement of the Muslim Brotherhood, while an impressive — by regional standards — salary of approximately 2,000 USD per month is being provided to the hired fighters. According to the same sources, despite the fact that Turkey is responsible for the total funding of these grey operations, the GNA handles all payments to the deployed forces.

Haftar Forces on the Verge of Collapse and the Massive Russia-Backed Recruitment Operation

While the developments on the ground indicate Haftar could ultimately prevail in the long-lasting conflict, the gradual GNA gains since last March have gradually shifted the balance drastically. At the moment LNA forces are under severe pressure, struggling for their very survival. Since the first signs of this balance shift appeared, an aggressive Russian-coordinated effort began to deploy Syrian mercenaries in support of Haftar in Libya.

According to Syrian sources, the recruitment process is being conducted and overseen by Russian authorities through an umbrella network of Syrian security companies. The recruits are coming from several rural areas and villages across Syria, such as As-Suwayda, Harran, Nimreh, Qanawat, and Shaqqa. There are also instances of recruitment taking place in major Syrian cities with a strong Russian presence, including Damascus, Homs, Lattakia, and Tartus. The recruits agree to join various operations starting from simple tasks, such as guarding oil facilities and other targets of high importance, and expanding to actual engagement in battle.

How Does Recruitment Work?

Once recruited the fighters are going through a 2-week training course in the Khmeimim Air Base and then they are flying directly to Benghazi. As most of the recruits have already participated in military operations, during the decade-long severe Syrian civil war, it seems that the training is not a priority considering the time-sensitive nature of their scheduled deployment. There are instances of recruits who flied to Libya without undergoing any training at all, as part of their recruitment process. It has been confirmed through local sources that Khmeimim Air Base is being predominantly used as the primary training facility and point of departure.

Cham Wings Airlines, has been reported to be involved in the air transfer of the mercenaries from Latakia Governorate to Western Libya. Earlier this year, Cham Wings opened an office in Benghazi. In an official statement in March the GNA Ministry of Interior accused the company of transferring mercenaries from Syria to the Libyan front. Cham Wings is a private Syrian company, which has been sanctioned by the US Government over alleged ties with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; the airline has also been accused in the past of transferring fighters from Russia to Syria, possibly members of the “Wagner Group,” to support the government forces in the Syrian conflict. Key Russian players coordinating the whole operation are reportedly acting on behalf of either the GRU, the Russian Military Intelligence Service, or the infamous “Wagner Group.”

Motivation and Coercion

Leaked documents indicate that the contracts which Syrian mercenaries are signing -issued in both Arabic and Russian — provide a monthly salary ranging between 2,000 and 3,000 USD. Even though inconsistencies in payment have been reported, with some unconfirmed statements suggesting that the salary received has been only a fraction of the agreed sum of money, there is no solid evidence to back this claim.

What we do currently know is that numerous contractors have left from Khmeimim to Libya, receiving a stipend of 500 USD each prior to their deployment and a promise that they will receive the rest of the agreed compensation upon their return. There are also additional provisions in the contract covering for any medical support that the contractors might need and providing a reimbursement to the fighters in case they are seriously injured, and a compensation to the family in case a contractor is killed in service. There are no clear indications around the insurance reparations, however according to the data available the figures do not seem to be particularly high.

At the same time, local sources have confirmed on condition of anonymity that in many instances the recruiters are choosing Syrian citizens who have been subject to criminal prosecution or investigation. This way the individuals can be indirectly forced to accept their deployment to Libya and the contract terms can be negotiated accordingly.

As additional rapid developments are set to take place in the Libyan front quite soon, it remains to be seen if the massive recruitment of Syrian mercenaries could pay off for the Libyan National Army and its foreign backers.

L'articolo The Syrian Mercenary Battleground in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

An end could be in sight for the civil war in Libya as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently said that “some agreements” have been reached with his US counterpart Donald Trump. According to Erdogan, these developments could herald a “new era” in Libya. Both the US and Turkish Presidents did not provide any details about what their agreements entail, but it shows that Washington can still play a positive role in international affairs as its reputation for intervening in the Middle East has been damaged in recent decades. Either way, both Turkey and the US are likely to strengthen their cooperation in Libya in the foreseeable future.

In a further boost to the Libyan peace process, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed on Monday that it is vital for both their nations to create the necessary conditions for peace through collaboration.

More Countries are Supporting Peace

The two foreign ministers also agreed that a new United Nations envoy must be appointed quickly.

Furthermore, Erdogan hinted that he would discuss Russia’s role in Libya with President Vladimir Putin, including the supply of Russian planes and Pantsir air defenses to Haftar’s forces.

Egypt had called for a ceasefire on Monday, as part of an initiative that proposed an elected leadership council for Tripoli. Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), who also support the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Khalifa Haftar’s leadership also welcomed the idea.

Although all the participants in the Libyan conflict appear to be preparing for peace, Putin is not reducing his support for Haftar. The LNA lost al Watiya on May 18, and then they retreated from Tripoli when the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) drove them out of the capital. This triggered the arrival of Russian combat aircraft in eastern Libya.

The GNA is the Lesser of Two Evils

That is why Trump’s intervention in Libya is welcome at this time. Haftar is a threat to American interests and he is not the hero that he claims to be. As Frederic Wehrey and Jeffrey Feltman of the New York Times suggest, his army depends heavily upon militias who have committed war crimes. The LNA general opposes democracy and totalitarianism is an inadequate solution to long-term peace in the Middle East. A Haftar victory would also strengthen Putin’s interests in the Middle East, which is why the weak GNA could be seen as the lesser of two evils in this conflict. 

With the Turks and the Russians both pursuing their own interests in Libya, America has an opportunity to act as an honest broker between both sides.

US Intervention Can Make a Difference

The US has a track record of helping the GNA. In the summer of 2018, when Haftar’s forces seized oil reserves in central Libya, both American diplomats and the UN envoy prevented these resources from falling into the LNA’s hands.

But America should have also issued sanctions against Haftar sooner. They only threatened to do so in March, but considering other Libyan militia leaders have had similar measures imposed on them, so should the LNA. Haftar has violated many UN Security Council resolutions and that is why both US and UN sanctions apply to him.

The Libyan peace process would also be more legitimate with participation from the Libyan people, too. As Thomas M. Hill of the U.S. Institute of Peace argues, the peace agreement negotiated in Morocco in 2015 was viewed as illegitimate because it was negotiated by political elites who failed to consult their own constituents.

The Libyan People Should be More Involved

Many Libyans have also mediated between tribes to prevent conflict and to generate opportunities for shared economic growth in the southern city of Ubari. They have also collaborated to solve problems like the indiscriminate use of celebratory gunfire in the city of Sebha.

Therefore, the US still has a part to play in Libya, even if it means working with the GNA and Erdogan, because the alternative under the Russian-backed LNA is much worse. But the time has also come for the Libyan people to participate more actively in the peace process.

L'articolo Can Trump Collaborate with Erdogan to Achieve Peace in Libya? proviene da InsideOver.

Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) forces are continuing their advance in Libya, strengthening their authority across the country. Recent significant GNA gains have pushed the intractable leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar to hold back from military action for a while and instead seek a solution through diplomatic means.

Recapturing the Tripoli Airport, as GNA’s Strategic Gains Increase

On June 3, GNA forces recaptured Tripoli’s main International Airport in Qasr Bin Ghashir, which has been held by Haftar’s Libyan National Army for over a year now. The Libyan armed forces under the command of the UN-recognized Tripoli government then launched a major counter-attack operation to retake vital points across the administrative districts of the Libyan Capital. The GNA has achieved several successes obtaining strategic points in the country, reverting the balance of the ongoing conflict. After the recapturing of the Al-Watiya airbase last month, the GNA Army scored another strategic victory on Wednesday. Securing the Tripoli International Airport, entails that the Tripoli government will not be relying on the inferior Mitiga International Airport, located approximately 8 miles east of Tripoli. This development significantly enhances the operational and logistical capabilities of the GNA’s military and represents another crucial setback for the Libyan National Army.

As of June 4, the GNA also controls Ain Zara and other key areas south of Tripoli, consolidating the dominance of the UN-backed government all over the administrative district of Tripoli. The Turkish support to Prime Minister Fayez al Sarraj has been vital for these advances and created a new status quo on the ground that has brought LNA forces to a stalemate.

Sarraj in Ankara and Maetig in Moscow

At the same time, the GNA side is seeking to capitalize on the recent strategic gains on the ground. With a boosted presence in the battlefield that has been built up over the previous months — with Turkish support being the catalyst for this GNA recovery — top officials of the Tripoli-based government are seeking to turn their military successes into diplomatic and political milestones through their presence abroad.

Al Sarraj, the Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord, is meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on June 4, for further coordination on the ongoing cease-fire talks, amid these increasing GNA achievements. Even though Sarraj and GNA officials are seeking to keep a modest approach in their public statements, taking into account the current fragile context and the ceasefire efforts, the Turkish side is purposefully not being that considerate. In a recent televised interview, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stated that Haftar — who is backed by Russian mercenaries — does not seek a political solution and will be eventually defeated by the Turkish-supported GNA forces.

Ankara’s Ambitions

By supporting the GNA and establishing a key presence in Libya, Ankara is pushing its own foreign policy objectives. This is being done at the expense of the rival neighbors, namely Cyprus, Greece and Egypt. So far, the top Turkish priority in this direction is the beginning of drilling activities south of the island of Crete, covering parts of the Greek and Cypriot EEZ and creating a harsh de facto situation for Athens and Nicosia.

At the same time, Ahmed Maetig, Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord also visited Moscow on June 3, declaring the intentions of the Tripoli-based Government to restart the negotiations. The fragile ceasefire proposal has been put forward again recently, after the major LNA losses. This new situation on the ground has pushed the uncompromising LNA leader Haftar back into making concessions.

UN-Backed Talks

Talks between the UN delegation and representatives from Haftar’s side took place on June 3; UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric has been optimistic about the latest talks pointing that both sides are moving to the right direction. According to Dujarric all parties, under the pressure of the UN and the international community, are taking steps to mitigating the scope of the conflict and putting an end to the agony of the Libyan people. The UN highlighted that the most worrying factor amidst the negotiation process, is the violation of the arms embargo from both sides. This very violation has prompted the escalation of the conflict during the previous months, and is currently posing a considerable risk, that could turn the situation out of control instantly. However, Dujarric clarified that the return of the opposing parties in the table of negotiations, alongside the UN efforts, could eventually bring a solution, as per the February 2020 UN ceasefire plan.

French Concerns

Following the most recent events, it is apparent that the chief foreign players in the Libyan field are Turkey and Russia. Especially after the wide-scale deployment of Russian jet fighters in the country — amid international controversy and US criticism — the Kremlin no longer seems focused on making the Russian footprint in the country go unnoticed. Through the combination of military and diplomatic means Moscow has gradually built a remarkable presence across the Mediterranean that could be seen as a substantial strategic victory if examined alongside Russia’s successful policy in Syria.

The leading role, which Kremlin and Ankara have achieved respectively, is seemingly worrying other foreign actors with vested interests in Libya. French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian warned last week that there is the risk of seeing a repeat of the Syrian play in Libya. Le Drian’s concerns of a potential “Syrianization” of Libya, are rather controversial, considering that Libya still constitutes a failed state, while Damascus managed to end a bitter decade-long conflict and get back to the state-building process. The most appropriate interpretation of French concerns only fits in the context in which Russia and Turkey will be the central foreign players in a potential truce between the conflicting parties. French worries can be summarized in a scenario where the negotiating power of Paris and its overall role in Libya would be seriously downgraded.

L'articolo Strategic GNA Gains Bring Libya’s Haftar Back to Negotiating Table proviene da InsideOver.

The Daily Sabah reports that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov both expressed support for an immediate ceasefire in Libya during a phone call on Thursday night. The two politicians also called for the resumption of the United Nations political process in the African state.

Their calls for peace come as the Russian-backed Libyan National Army (LNA) declared that it was preparing to launch a significant air campaign against Turkish targets “in the coming hours,” according to Bloomberg. 

The statement suggests a likely escalation in the battle between the Turkish-backed government in Tripoli and the eastern-based LNA forces led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who may be seeking revenge following the loss of a crucial airbase southwest of Tripoli on Monday. 

Libya: Proxy War Central

Since Muammar Gadhafi was ousted from power in 2011, Libya has become a political playground for both Turkey and Russia. Haftar not only has the support of Russia, but Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli enjoys international recognition.

Turkey and Russia pushed for a resumption of peace talks in January, but the peace process collapsed after the ceasefire was repeatedly violated, and the GNA and the LNA’s foreign supporters continued sending weapons to the country.

The only nation that seems to have gained anything from this conflict is Turkey. The Jerusalem Post’s Seth J. Frantzman argues that Ankara appears to be winning in the African state because it sought to prevent Tripoli from falling to Haftar. This was nothing more than an opportunity for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to prove that he can embarrass major players in the Middle East.

For example, he proved to the US that his nation could slaughter Washington’s former Kurdish partners in the country, and that he can control Iraq’s airspace by bombing it.

Has Russia Lost the Libyan War?

Russia, Egypt and the UAE, meanwhile, seem to be interested in waging a proxy war in Libya to keep the conflict going. It was always unclear what Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aims in the country were. Equally, Putin sold Turkey S-400s and agreed to allow Ankara to occupy Afrin, Idlib and Tel Abyad in Syria.

Regardless, Ankara is able to request a ceasefire from a position of strength and this will transform Russian-Turkish relations further. It is difficult to predict what the outcome of a Libyan ceasefire would be, but Turkey would be in a powerful position to dictate peace terms considering it has technically won the war there.

Putin must now accept that Moscow is not the only player battling for control over the Middle East, but both Moscow and Ankara have been allowed to fight over the region because the US has retreated from the global stage.

Russian-Turkish Relations Likely to Strengthen

Like with Syria, both Turkey and Russia have squeezed the US out of Libya. Beyond a potential ceasefire, both nations have an opportunity to collaborate with Iran and exert their control over the Middle East.

Ankara and Moscow are collaborating on a pipeline under the Black Sea called TurkStream, whilst Tehran is seeking to boost trade with Ankara by $30 billion from the $10 billion figure in 2017.

Russia’s war in Libya has been a catastrophic failure and they can only succeed in breaking the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces’ grip over Syria with Turkish help. Moscow must accept that it can either collaborate with Turkey in the long-term or, like with the US, witness its influence in the Middle East being eradicated by an arguably more prominent player. Putin has met his match in Erdogan.

Either way, the US should be deeply concerned that two autocratic regimes are determining events in the Middle East. The 2003 Iraq War and the 2011 Libyan conflict may have killed US voters’ appetite for wars, but without American involvement in the region, Russia and Turkey are only likely to strengthen their ties and become the new superpowers that dominate Middle Eastern geopolitics.

L'articolo What Would a Libyan Ceasefire Mean for Turkish-Russian Relations? proviene da InsideOver.

Turkey will likely increase tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean as it is set to begin drilling off the coast of Libya and asserting what it assumes its economic rights in the region.

What Exactly is Going On?

Turkey has submitted a request to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) to start drilling in areas outlined in a maritime delimitation memorandum of understanding between the two sides. Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said seismic surveys would take place in the Eastern Mediterranean, including in areas identified in the memorandum.

The two sides signed the memorandum in November of last year. They also signed another memorandum for security cooperation. The two pacts prized rapprochement between Ankara and the GNA and marked a turning point in the conflict over Libya.

The legality of the two pacts is questionable, especially with the eastern Libya parliament saying that the GNA does not have the legal right to sign deals with other governments. However, the memos have increased security cooperation between Turkey and Tripoli and are now opening the door for more Turkish economic presence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Getting Ready to Drill

Donmez said the process to license drilling in the region by the Turkish Petroleum Corporation had already begun. The first seismic survey activity would begin, he said, as soon as it is completed.

The official Turkish news agency, Anadolu, quoted him as adding that Turkey had already made preparations in this regard.

“Turkey is committed to its plans both in the Mediterranean and in the Black Sea,” he said.

Donmez revealed that drilling activities in areas outlined in the maritime boundary delimitation memo between Ankara and the GNA would begin in July.

Growing Eastern Mediterranean Tensions

Turkey submitted the drilling request to the GNA two days only after five nations, namely Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, France and the United Arab Emirates criticized Turkish drilling off the coast of Cyprus.

The five countries said in a joint statement that Turkish drilling violated international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. They described Turkish drilling off the coast of Cyprus as “illegitimate.”

Turkey will be raising tensions in the region, even more by drilling in other areas in the light of the maritime boundary delimitation memo with the GNA. This tension will increase the militarization of the Eastern Mediterranean, with regional states Egypt, Greece and Cyprus acting to protect their rights against Turkish encroachments, analysts said.

“Natural gas is becoming the focal point of growing tensions in the region,” said Ayman Abdel Wahab, a researcher at Egyptian think tank, Ahram Center for Political Strategic Studies. “Turkish involvement in Libya and the conflict between Turkey, on one hand, and Greece and Cyprus, on the other, are all interconnected.”

Turkey’s Risky Move

The drilling request by the Turkish Petroleum Corporation is probably the end goal of Turkey’s involvement in Libya.Turkey has come out empty-handed of all the major natural gas discoveries made in the territorial waters of some regional states in the past years.

Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus have discovered sizable amounts of natural gas off their coasts, amid expectations that the region will be the world’s next energy hub.

This has apparently watered the mouths of decision-makers in Ankara. Turkey has used the security cooperation memo with the GNA to increase military support to the Tripoli-based government, including by sending thousands of mercenaries from Syria.

Turkish support is upending the course of battles between the Islamist militias allied to the GNA, on one hand, and the Libyan National Army, which has its own regional sponsors and is trying to overrun Libyan capital Tripoli, on the other.

The Worst is Yet to Come

Expected Turkish drilling in the region will widen the scope of tension in it and put Ankara on a collision course with other countries, analysts said. This is especially true with regional states getting ready for confrontation or defensive action.

In January this year, France sent warships to the Eastern Mediterranean for joint drills with Greek and Cypriot vessels. Greece is also taking measures, including by sending naval units to the Cypriot coast to guard against Turkish encroachments, amid intensified Turkish drilling. Egypt is also boosting its navy to protect its economic interests in the Mediterranean. On May 15, Egypt launched a locally built corvette.

The Gowind class corvette was built in cooperation with France, a sign of growing strategic and military cooperation between the two nations. An advanced German submarine joined the Egyptian navy a few days earlier, giving insights into the ongoing modernization of the Egyptian navy in the face of growing regional threats.

Turkish regional moves, analysts said, would provoke other regional states and open the door for confrontation.

“Turkish practices are very dangerous, leading to major instability in this region,” said Ahmed Qandil, another researcher from Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. “There is an urgent need for dialogue on the best means of deterring Ankara and preventing it from causing further unrest.”

L'articolo Turkey Makes Another Risky Move in the Eastern Mediterranean proviene da InsideOver.

The Mediterranean mission Irini off the coast of Libya has the potential to initiate a dangerous escalation between Turkey and the European Union, particularly without NATO’s involvement. This is mainly due to Ankara.

Irini is Different Than Past EU Mission Sophia

The previous week the European Union announced that its new Mediterranean mission Irini had commenced, intending to monitor the United Nations’ arms embargo in Libya. However, unlike the EU’s previous mission Sophia, which has also been trying to contain the smuggling of weapons since 2016, NATO will no longer offer reconnaissance and logistics, such as refueling, for Irini.

In EU circles, this is seen as a setback for the much-touted new cooperation between the EU and NATO. It is also regarded as an unfavorable political signal to the rest of the world — friends as well as foes. The reason for NATO’s absence was reportedly considerable opposition from NATO soldiers both within the alliance and in the EU, Irini being the EU’s flagship of its defense policy.

The operation is said to cease arms transports to Libya from the air, by satellite, and especially at sea — and to help facilitate peace in the civil war-torn country. Europeans remain highly interested in ending the escalation as the war continues to drive more and more refugees from Libya to Europe.

The Significance of NATO’s Absence

The fact that NATO is now holding out is a setback, especially since the alliance is already present in the Mediterranean with ships as part of its Sea Guardian operation, which deals with maritime surveillance, training and the fight against terrorism. Further cooperation between the EU and NATO would have been practically possible. On NATO’s side, however, Ankara opposed the support of Irini, which was sufficient, as unanimity would have been necessary for a decision.

Turkey’s rationale is obvious: an interruption of Turkish arms transports to Libya via NATO or EU ships is to be avoided at all costs, as Turkey continues to support Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and his Government of National Accord. It can be argued that without Turkey’s help, al Sarraj would have long ago lost to Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army – who, in turn, are supported by Russia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and France. Since November, Turkey has been supporting al-Sarraj in exchange for “delimited areas of influence” in the Mediterranean.

Turkey’s Interests are Evolving — and Not in a Peaceful Direction

Turkey’s interests today are thus different than at the time of Sophia. This dampens hopes of peace anytime soon. Due to the constant increase in international actors contributing to an escalation, the spiral of violence and hindering efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict are exacerbated.

However, there was also internal EU opposition against NATO’s support of Irini. France raised concerns, but the mission was rejected by Greece and Cyprus in particular. Both countries are concerned that Turkey — as part of a cooperation between NATO and the EU — would obtain valuable information and could direct its arms transports accordingly around the embargo.

Most importantly, however, it remains entirely unclear what happens if EU soldiers stop NATO member Turkey’s smugglers and Turkey is unwilling to relinquish the weapons. This could result in a violent conflict. Moreover, weapons from the Emirates continue to enter the country by air and from Egypt across the land border, complicating the issue.

The EU Doesn’t Have the Answer

The situation remains volatile. Both the internationally recognized government of al-Sarraj and Haftar are unsurprisingly strictly against the new EU operation Irini, as both sides seek further access to heavy weapons — despite all pledges and international efforts to bring an end to the war.

As for now, despite Irini, an end to Libya’s war is not in sight. Irini itself remains a symbol for a noble but toothless idea that once again illustrates the lack of a coherent European answer to today’s foreign policy challenges.

L'articolo EU’s Flagship Mission Irini and its Pitfalls with Turkey proviene da InsideOver.