Iran and Venezuela have enough in common with US sanctions slapped on both of them that they have decided to form an oil partnership. Both states have remarkable similarities, each having their heavily dependent oil economies disrupted by the Trump administration. For Venezuela, however, the situation is far worse as President Nicolás Maduro has not only ostracized his nation from the US, but also from Russia.

Buying Time for Venezuela’s Economy

As Venezuelan society continues its slow-motion collapse, Iran has sent five oil tankers as part of a new business relationship. The first, the Fortune, arrived Monday and was hailed as a savior, as the New York Times reported.

“Thanks Iran,” Maduro tweeted on Sunday. He also said that “only the brotherhood of free peoples will save us.”

At first glance, it may seem odd that Caracas needs oil. After all, the state boasts the world’s largest supply of oil reserves. Unfortunately, severe mismanagement by the government and brutal US sanctions that deterred foreign investment have essentially caused all its refineries to shutter.

Venezuela direly needs refined oil, but Iran wins too with the deal by receiving gold. Money seldom flows into Tehran these days after Trump’s sanctions have pushed away most buyers of Iranian oil. The exchange of gold for oil benefits both ailing states.

US Reaction

Understandably, the US is displeased with the news that five tankers sailed around the globe from one sanctioned regime to another, raising questions of what, if anything, the Trump administration will do. America already has a contingent of Navy and Coast Guard vessels in the region that are operating a drug interdiction campaign. However, these ships were not ordered to engage the Iranian tankers.

The Trump administration is likely to let the transgression slide while pursuing the larger goal of unseating Maduro, which it has made little progress toward. In reality, Tehran’s shipment will not be enough to sustain Caracas longer than a month, and there aren’t enough gold reserves for Venezuela to continue the scheme for long. This month’s shipment likely cost $700 million according to Russ Dallen, partner at Caracas Capital Markets, a Florida-based monitoring agency.

If the shipment is a one-time affair, it would make sense for Washington to take care not to overreact. US President Donald Trump hasn’t faired well when he’s tried his hand at foreign policy. Since taking office, he’s managed to escalate tensions with nearly every other nation that he’s tried to secure a deal with — China, North Korea, Iran.

The US–Iran relationship in particular reached new lows this year after the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani. With only months before the American election, it makes sense to keep the relationship as diplomatic as possible. Furthermore, Iran has made overtures to deescalate tensions since April in ways that would have been unimaginable in January.

Maduro Holds On

The larger issue for the Trump administration is Maduro’s continued hold on the Venezuelan government. In truth, Iran’s economic partnership will help sustain Maduro and is a cause for concern for Washington.

“The president has made clear the United States will not tolerate continued meddling by supporters of an illegitimate regime,” a senior US official said. Trump’s National Security Council also tweeted that the gasoline importation was done in “desperation.”

Washington, while it draws up plans for how to counter continued support of Maduro’s state, is playing the wait-and-see approach. If more tankers make a run for Caracas next month, then American intervention could be likely.

As for Maduro, Washington is burning up its options at a rapid pace. Now it’s left with only economic measures, but those have already been leveraged and by every account working. Trump also put a bounty on Maduro’s head, an incredibly rare move for the US government to do for a head-of-state. That in and of itself is a telling sign that the US really has few options for dealing with Maduro.

Venturing America’s Sphere of Influence

A new issue arises with Iran’s support of Venezuela that could force Washington into action: Tehran’s venture into the Western Hemisphere. For the most part, Iranian influence is limited to the Middle East and Africa. The late Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez did sign agreements with Tehran, but little came of them except some foreign investment.

During the recent depression, Iranian companies that did operate in Venezuela pulled out. The recent gasoline shipment marks the first sign of life in the partnership.

“It’s striking that the Iranians feel confident enough that the Trump administration is not going to get in their way and is willing to take this risk and come into what is traditionally thought of as the U.S. sphere of influence,” said Risa Grais-Targow, Venezuela analyst at the Eurasia Group.

Iran, therefore, is taking the largest risk. It has already been in the Trump administration’s sights since his first day in office and he seems to enjoy any excuse to hit Tehran with more sanctions. So far, the US has only condemned the transaction through the US State Department.

“Venezuelans need free and fair presidential elections leading to democracy and economic recovery, not Maduro’s expensive deals with another pariah state,” said spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus.

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US President Donald Trump denied that Washington had played a role in a recent failed coup attempt to oust Venezuela’s leader Nicolas Maduro. Trump’s denial followed the arrest of former American soldiers and other labeled as “terrorists” accused by Venezuela of trying to kidnap the incumbent socialist president.

In footage aired by Venezuela’s state TV station Wednesday, May 6, one of the US mercenaries, Luke Denman, revealed that he had been hired to train Venezuelans in Colombia before planning to seize the airport and take Maduro out of the country.

“I was helping Venezuelans take back control of their country,” Denman, an Iraq War veteran, admitted.

US Interventions in Latin America: a Brief Overview

The US involvement in Latin American’s regime change cannot be separated from the Monroe Doctrine, enacted in 1823 under the presidency of James Monroe. The policy was instituted after Monroe was pressured to recognize the independence of Latin American nations from Spain or Portugal, such as Argentina, Peru, and Mexico in 1822.

Previously, Russia, Austria, and Prussia formed a holy alliance after the defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte in 1815.

However, the U.S and Britain worried that Europe’s powers would exert their influence in the Western Hemisphere. In his speech, Monroe stressed that the American continent should be freed from Europe’s colonization.

“The American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintain, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for colonization by any European powers. Any attempt by a European power to exert its influence in the Western Hemisphere would, from then on, be seen by the United States as a threat to its security,” Monroe stated.

US-backed Regime Change in Latin America

Venezuela (2002)

Maduro’s accusation that the US tried to topple him sounds plausible, given that Washington orchestrated a coup to topple his predecessor Hugo Chavez in 2002.

The effort failed, and Chavez was back in power 48 hours after his temporary removal. Chavez, who was also a close friend of Cuba’s Fidel Castro, had been the most adored socialist leader in his home country and across Latin America due to his welfare program.

In 2004, a declassified document disclosed that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had known that Venezuelan opposition groups’ planned to assassinate Chavez, as the New York Times reported. However, The Bush administration snubbed the allegations and slammed the popular leftist figure for his downfall.

Chavez was known for his welfare policy, thanks to Venezuela’s oil revenue. However, the decline in global oil prices a year after his death plunged the country into serious crisis which was worsened by the political turmoil and a punishing US-backed embargo.

Maduro took office in 2013, replacing Chavez. In 2018, Maduro’s reelection sparked controversy from Venezuelan opposition backed by US and its Western allies due to the vote-rigging allegation. Such a political crisis has worsened the situation following the economic crisis caused by the decline in global oil prices in 2014.

The uncertainty in Venezuela has divided the world and Latin American in particular: The US and other right-wing governments in Latin America, such as Colombia, Brazil, Chile, and Peru supported self-proclaimed president Juan Guaido, while Russia, Turkey, and left-wing administrations such as (then) Bolivia, and Mexico backed Maduro, the former close aide of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Chile (1973)

In 1970, socialist Salvador Allende was democratically elected as Chile’s president, supported by several leftist parties such as the Communist Party, the Social Democratic Party, and many more.

Allende’s victory was the victory of Chilean workers, indigenous communities, and farmers. His priorities focused on providing free healthcare and education to all, nationalization of large-scale industries, and land redistribution for farmers.

His populist policy succeeded in lifting the country’s economy and reducing the unemployment rate. However, Allende’s nationalization angered Washington. The then-Richard Nixon Administration reacted by lowering global copper’s prices and imposing an economic embargo on Chile.

The sanction crippled Chile’s economy, given that the country relied on copper export. The embargo also stopped investment and triggered a political crisis, deepening the country’s political division.

On September 11, 1973, Chile’s military launched a coup to overthrow Allende. Fire blanketed most parts of the La Moneda Palace. Allende was later found dead with his hand holding an automatic weapon.

Tens of thousands of Allende’s supporters were killed and kidnapped. The late CIA-backed General Augusto Pinochet took office until 1990. Under his rule, many activists were killed, kidnapped, and jailed without trial.

Former CIA agent in Chile, Jack Devine, admitted that all the coup instructions came from the White House. The operation to oust Allende was inspired by the mass killings president targeting leftist activists in Jakarta, Indonesia between 1965 and 1966, leading to the downfall of then-Indonesian-President Sukarno.

Argentina (1976)

The democratically-elected leader of Argentina Isabel Martinez de Peron was overthrown in a military coup in March 1976, leading to the disappearance of around 600 people. Eight days before the coup, Argentine Navy Chief, also the chief of the operation Emilio Eduarto Massero visited the US ambassador to Argentina, Robert Hill to discuss the coup plan.

Jorge Videla ruled the country with an iron fist. His anti-subversive policy led to the killing of Peron’s supporters. Around 30,000 Argentines had been killed, kidnapped, and died under his rule.

The Videla dictatorship triggered the establishment of a human rights organization called “Asociación Madres de Plaza de Mayo (AMPM)” or Mothers of Plaza del Mayo. The organization consisted of mothers who lost their children under the military regime.

However, massive corruption protests against human rights abuses, the loss to Britain in the Falkland War put the Videla regime in the worst crisis. In 1982, civil liberty was restored, and a year later, Raul Alfonsin was elected as the country’s president, marking the end of the darkest period under the military rule.

In April 2019, the U.S transferred thousands of files related to the Washington-backed military dictatorship to Argentina, the biggest-ever handover of documents ever to another administration, as France24 reported.

Brazil (1964)

The CIA played a significant role in the assassination of then-Brazil’s president Joao Goulart in March 1964, due to Goulart’s close ties with communist figures.

National Security Archive cables showed that the instructions to remove Goulart came directly from the then-US President Lyndon Jonhson.

“I’d put everybody that had any imagination or ingenuity…[CIA Director John] McCone…[Secretary of Defense Robert] McNamara” on making sure the coup went forward, Johnson was recorded giving instructions to the undersecretary of State George Ball.

Guatemala (1954)

Col. Jacobo Arbenz was the president of Guatemala in 1951. He was known for agricultural reform that demanded fair compensation to low-wage laborers. Such a policy posed a threat to the American firm United Fruit Company, which later lobbied the White House. In the CIA document published by the NSA, the US intelligence community arranged the plan to remove and kill Arbenz in 1952.

The CIA-backed coup succeeded in ousting Arbenz in 1954. Washington-backed Col. Carlos Castillo Armas replaced Arbenz, who once seized land controlled by United Fruit Company. Then-US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles and his brother Allan Dulles (former CIA director) were also investors in the United Fruit Company.

Bolivia (1971)

In 1971, a brutal CIA-backed military coup removed Bolivia’s leftist president Juan Torres, who only ruled the Andean country for a year. Torres was known for his anti-liberalism stance and nationalization policy. He was replaced by Gen.Hugo Banzer, trained at the pro-US School of the Americas.

Was the West Behind Evo Morales’ Resignation?

More than 40 years later, Evo Morales decided to resign after weeks of protest against his re-election in October 2019 due to the vote-manipulation allegation. Morales, who started taking office in 2005, was one of the most famous socialist leaders in Latin America, along with Hugo Chavez (Venezuela), Lula da Silva (Brazil) and Nestor Kirchner (Argentina) when the left gained popularity in the region in mid-2000.

Morales succeeded in reducing the poverty rate by around 25 percent during a decade. However, he then became unstoppable by refusing the referendum result on the limit of presidential terms in 2016.

Many left-wing figures raised suspicion that Morales had been ousted in a Western-backed coup. Morales accused the US of masterminding his downfall, adding that his removal was due to the lithium industry. Bolivia is the country with the most abundant lithium reserves in the world. Morales was sure that his plan to nationalize the sector was the motive behind the coup against him.

“That’s why I’m convinced it’s a coup against lithium,” Morales stated.

L'articolo List of US Interventions in Latin America proviene da InsideOver.

The United States has further increased pressure on Venezuela’s President Maduro. On Thursday, Maduro was charged with drug trafficking. Moreover, the United States is paying up to $15 million in rewards for his capture as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced.

Details of the Drug Trafficking Charges

Maduro and the other defendants have been charged by the U.S. judiciary with leading a drug trafficking ring since at least 1999. In addition to Maduro, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, the country’s Supreme Judge Maikel Moreno, army officials, and two Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia aka FARC) leaders are also being charged.

The US judiciary has long planned to indict Maduro, according to US Attorney General Bill Barr. Maduro is accused of working with Colombian drug cartels to “flood the United States with cocaine,” which the Justice Department has labeled “narco-terrorism.” The Maduro regime is “full of corruption and crime,” said Barr.

Barr also stated that Maduro and other Venezuelan leaders had worked with the now-defunct Colombian FARC guerrillas for over two decades. The group was responsible for the export up to 250 tons of cocaine across the US border per year.

Prosecutor: Maduro Used Cocaine as a Weapon Against the United States

Chief Prosecutor Geoffrey Berman said Maduro sought to “flood” the US with cocaine to harm the health and wellbeing of the nation. Maduro had deliberately used cocaine as a “weapon” against the USA.

The indictment of a current head of state is a rare occurrence and thus a new apogee of escalation between the US government and the Maduro regime. The United States has repeatedly accused Maduro of turning his own country into a “drug swamp” to offset US sanctions on the country’s oil sector.

The United States and many allies, including European countries, seek to force Maduro out of the office and instead officially recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s president. Guaido appointed himself interim president in January last year and has been fighting for power with Maduro ever since. A rapid change in Caracas with the help of the Venezuelan military was initially expected. Guaidó denies Maduro’s legitimization as head of state because his re-election did not meet democratic standards. So far, he has not been able to prevail against Maduro, however  ⁠— above all because the Venezuelan military has remained loyal to the president ⁠— as have Russia and China.

The oil-rich Venezuela is in the grip of a dramatic economic crisis under Maduro’s socialist leadership and tough US sanctions, among others against the Venezuelan financial system, the state’s oil company and the Maduro government. Many people have fled the country, while many of those who have remained are suffering under severe poverty.

Maduro: Trump is a ‘Racist Creep’

Maduro responded to the charges by the United States almost immediately and called President Trump a “creep”, a “cowboy” and a “racist” during a televised speech, while also accusing the US president of utilizing extortion methods in international relations. Maduro also denied the charges brought against him. The whole “extremist” indictment was based on “false accusations”, he stated.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza also attacked Donald Trump and accused him of “once again attacking the Venezuelan people and their democratic institutions”. The actions taken by the United States was nothing more than an attempt to commit “a new form of coup d’état”.

The opposition, meanwhile, welcomed the indictment. “Maduro stands for drug trafficking, Maduro stands for organized crime,” said Julio Borges, the country’s representative for opposition leader and president-in-waiting Juan Guaidó.

While it remains highly unlikely that Maduro will ever see the inside of a US courtroom, the measures taken will increase the pressure on him severely. Most importantly, one can rest assured that the indictment will not be the last attempt by the US to unseat Maduro ⁠— indeed, even in the current crisis American policy remains determined to oust Maduro and facilitate a Guaidó presidency.

L'articolo The US Charges Maduro with Narco-Terrorism proviene da InsideOver.

President Trump has warned Venezuela that the US is preparing “crippling” and “impactful measures” to force Nicolás Maduro from power. His warnings came during his meeting with opposition coalition leader Juan Guaidó, who met with Trump at the White House this past Wednesday.

“We are probably halfway to what maximum pressure [on Maduro] could look like,” a senior administration official told the press earlier. “We are only moving in one direction and that is forwards.”

Guaidó’s Repeated Failures

So far, Juan Guaidó’s multiple US-backed coups in Venezuela have all failed. The final failure came in January when journalists claimed that Guaidó faked an incident in which he claimed he was blocked from entering Venezuela’s National Assembly by security forces. The staged incident was in response to learning that the opposition lawmakers were replacing him as National Assembly president. Guaidó was hoping the stunt would gain him support from international leaders.

What actually happened is that Guaidó had refused to enter the National Assembly unless permitted to enter with eleven former members of the National Assembly. They included members who had been barred from serving by Venezuela’s Supreme Court, after allegedly concocting a voter-buying scheme in their elections. Other members of the eleven-strong group had parliamentary immunity stripped from them after participating in another Guaidó-led uprising in April last year.

Maduro’s 2018 Re-election

During the 2018 Venezuelan presidential elections, President Nicolás Maduro was democratically and constitutionally re-elected, after agreeing to the opposition demanding an early election. Maduro, the late President Hugo Chávez’s mentee, won by a wide margin with 67.48% of votes, followed by Henri Falcón’s 20.93% of votes.

During this time, Guaidó illegally declared himself interim president, despite none of the constitutional conditions for doing so being met. US Vice President, Mike Pence, would go on to congratulate Guaidó on becoming interim president.

Guaidó’s Unsuccessful 2019 Coup Attempt

By April 2019 Guaidó would attempt another unsuccessful coup, stating that: “The time to topple Maduro’s regime is right now.”

Presently, authorities have stripped Guaidó of parliamentary immunity, and are carrying out multiple investigations against him. Like Guaidó, Venezuela’s opposition are currently in total disarray.

Dr. Francisco Eissa-Barroso, a lecturer in Latin American History at The University of Manchester said: “I don’t know if the US will succeed in placing a US-backed president in power in Venezuela, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do.

“Short of a military intervention—either openly carried out by US forces, which seems unlikely, or covertly by providing arms, equipment, training and tactical support to the still small group of Guaidó supporters within the Venezuelan armed forces—I struggle to see what Trump could do in the short term to achieve his aim. In the medium run, however, it seems likely that whatever replaces Maduro’s regime will be much more to the US’s liking,” Eissa-Barroso added.

The Roots Of Venezuela’s Current Conflict

For Eissa-Barroso, however, the situation is far more complicated than reported, and dates back to Venezuela’s deeply-entrenched socialist ideologies, and its long-standing history with the US.

“In the 2015 legislative election when Maduro lost control of the National Assembly to what would have been an opposition qualified [two-thirds] majority, rather than accept the result of the election, Maduro used the Supreme Court to deprive four members of the opposition of their seats so that opposing parties no longer held a qualified majority,” Eissa-Barroso explained.

‘Maduro’s Decision Not To Accept The Result Of … 2015 Election’ Were The Beginning Of The Current Problems

“When the Assembly refused to accept this decision, the Court deprived the Assembly of its legislative powers and claimed them for itself until they could be transferred to the new Constituent Assembly. Maduro’s decision not to accept the result of the 2015 legislative election marked the beginning of the current political crisis,” Eissa-Barroso said, adding that “as for the 2018 presidential election, yes, Maduro won it fairly and relatively democratically … but his stronger challengers were excluded from running in the first place.”

‘The Very Real Achievements Of Chávez’s Government’

Eissa-Barroso believes part of the failure of US attempts to oust Maduro rest in the past achievements of Chávez.

“I think the more interesting issue here, is why US attempts to overthrow Maduro by providing political support to the right-wing opposition, and tightening economic restrictions, have failed. To do so, we need to remember the very real achievements of Chávez’s government in terms of redressing long standing economic and political inequality in Venezuela up to 2008 or 2010,” Eissa-Barroso said.

“The very tangible benefits that Chávez delivered to poorer sectors of the country’s population, alongside what turned out to be a very successful anti-American rhetoric, are what explain the sustained support for Maduro despite his unquestionably inept management of the economic and political situation since he came to power,” Eissa-Barroso added, noting that “an intrinsic dislike of the US as an exploitative and interventionist power is ingrained in large sectors of Latin America’s population, particularly the huge sectors which haven’t benefited from US investment, intervention and US-backed neo-liberal policies.”

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