Rivalry between India and China has always been marred by tension and border disputes, which culminated historically in three military conflicts between the two Asian heavyweights.

Rising Tension Between Nuclear-Armed Neighbors

While New Delhi is growing wary about Beijing’s strong relations with India’s arch foe Pakistan, China looks with suspicion at Indian military and economic activities in the disputed South China Sea.

Tension between the nuclear-armed neighbors escalated in deadly clashes along their lengthy frontier earlier this year, with the two countries trading accusations for who was to blame for the violence.

China and India Competing to Gain Influence in Oil-Rich Iran

Now, the two rivals are turning to oil-rich Iran, where the Asian giants are completing to gain a foothold. India and China see Tehran as a strategic gateway to boost their influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Their rivalry now focuses on the strategic Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran.

Located on the Gulf of Oman, the port serves as Iran’s only oceanic port and is close to international waters in the Indian Ocean. The seaport consists of two separate terminals, each of which has five berths built in an area of 485 hectares.

India’s 2016 MoU to Develop Chabahar Port in Iran vs. China’s 2015 Deal With Pakistan to Build Gwadar Port

In 2016, India signed a $1.6-billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tehran to develop the Chabahar port, which is located 1,400 kilometers from India’s commercial capital Mumbai. The MoU also included the construction of a railway line between the port city of Chabahar and Zahedan in southeastern Iran.

The agreement came months after China signed an agreement with India’s neighbor Pakistan in 2015 to develop Gwadar port, which is located only 350 km by land and 140 km by sea from the port of Chabahar.

India sees the development of the Chahabar port as an opportunity to secure connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.

India also signed a trilateral agreement with Iran and Afghanistan in 2016 for the transfer of Indian goods to Afghanistan via Chabahar port, ending New Delhi’s dependence on Pakistan’s ports.

US Withdrawal from the Iran Deal and India’s Changing Relationship With Iran

In May 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Despite the fact that Washington had agreed to a waiver for the Chabahar port and the Chabahar-Zahedan rail project, India halted its oil purchases from Iran in compliance with the US sanctions.

Angered by the Indian move, Iran moved to drop New Delhi out from the Chabahar-Zahedan railway project along the border with Afghanistan in July of this year, citing India’s delay in fulfilling its financial obligations under their agreement.

“I never thought that an independent country like India would be willing to follow the US footsteps and refuse to buy oil from us,” Iran’s First Vice President Ishaq Jahangiri said in statements that reflect Tehran’s anger over the Indian decision to halt oil purchases from Iran.

China and Iran Sign $400 Billion Strategic Partnership

One month after the move, reports emerged that energy-hungry China and Iran signed a $400-billion strategic partnership pact. According to media reports, China will invest $120 billion into transport and manufacturing infrastructure in cash-strapped Iran as part of the deal. The agreement will also allow Tehran to facilitate the infusion of about $280 billion from Beijing, which wants to buy oil from Iran.

Several reports also emerged about Chinese-Iranian talks over China’s participation in the Chahabar-Zaheden railway project as well as Beijing’s interest in taking part in the development of the Chahabar port.

India Scrambles to Respond

These reports have troubled India, leaving Indian officials scrambled to save their country’s share in the Chahabar port and keep China away from the port development project. The Indian worries were evident in the surprise visit by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh to Iran for talks with Iranian officials earlier this month. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar also made a stopover in Tehran for talks with officials there.

The visits reflected India’s growing concerns from being dropped out of the Chahabar port development and being replaced by its geopolitical rival China.

According to observers, China’s elimination of India from the Chahabar port project will be a major success to Beijing as it will mean denying New Delhi access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, something India does not want to lose.

So far, Iran did not exclude India from the Chahabar port project. On the contrary, Tehran is using this card to pressure New Delhi to ignore the US sanctions and fulfill its financial obligations in the project or risk losing its share to its geopolitical rival China.

L'articolo China, India Compete for Influence in Cash-strapped Iran proviene da InsideOver.

A recent report in Wall Street Journal notes that Venezuela is entering a post-oil era, and now produces only 10% of what it did two decades ago. From one of the original co-founders of OPEC to a sanctions-ravaged nation that’s also struggling with the coronavirus pandemic and endemic poverty.

The Current Situation

Over five million Venezuelans have found ways to leave the country in the past five years and the remaining population mostly lives below the poverty line. Gas shortages are common and many houses don’t have enough propane to cook food with their rudimentary propane tank stoves.

The biggest American company still operating in Venezuela is Chevron – which has been active in the country for almost a century – but the others took the exit door more than a decade ago when former leader Hugo Chávez amended their contracts to terms they did not agree with. Chevron will be closing up most of its in-country operations by December of this year due to increasing sanctions pressure which will also hit other key oil companies which have been helping Venezuela turn its crude oil into dollars.

Brief Historical Snapshot

In the 1970s, Venezuela had the highest GDP in South America, but still had festering poverty and income inequality between its booming upper class and everyone else. When military man and committed socialist Chávez took the helm in the late 1990s he distributed oil income to the people and subsidized the cost of gas to make it cost almost nothing.

Chávez also strengthened ties with Cuba and by 2006 he began using legislation and contract amendments that hiked royalties to make doing business in Venezuela unprofitable in order to force foreign oil firms to turn over their wells to the state oil behemoth Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PdVSA). Most did turn over control and summarily left the country.

Corruption by government insiders and a failure to really pay attention to the vast oil infrastructure under PdVSA control led to a revenue decline and after Chávez’s death in 2013, the global oil price drop in 2014 delivered the knockout punch to the Venezuelan economy.

Chávez’s successor Nicolás Maduro — facing ongoing US and Western efforts to install Juan Guaidó as president in his stead including by new US envoy to Venezuela and war criminal Elliott Abrams — has taken action to get around sanctions by selling to allies like Cuba and getting help from Iran, as well as cracking down strongly on domestic dissent. The Trump Administration put a $15 million bounty on Maduro several months ago.

As some turn against Maduro and blame him for the poverty and political repression in the country, others support his government more strongly and agree with him that Western imperialism is at the root of Venezuelans’ suffering.

Income Implosion

The Venezuelan government is now faced with taking in significantly less money than it has in the past, with their lack of input to OPEC quickly being made up by other members and rising US refinery production quickly offsetting any Venezuelan gap.

Cars, buses and trucks are seen much less on the roads now that gasoline is being sold at near market prices. Despite plans to fix the industry, so far it continues to suffer under sanctions and the Venezuelan economy is in ruins. Private industry was significantly weakened by government seizures and policies and

Has the Bolivarian Revolution Lost Popular Support?

Problems of getting enough food, electricity, running water, medicine, medical care and the loss of the good times under Chávez have certainly taken their toll, and the growth of opposition groups in the country can’t only be ascribed to foreign meddling, but also as a reaction to the dire situation in the country, rash of extrajudicial killings and a lack of coherence within the ruling United Socialist Party.

Many farmers aren’t even harvesting most of their fields, since there’s not enough gas to get it to market in the cities and many essential workers are also having trouble getting to work because of the cost of gas. Maduro is facing international isolation on an intense scale, and the US is still working hard to put Guaidó in charge via a “transitional government” structure that would sponsor transparent elections.

Chávez formed a strong base of support through an authoritarian military-led socialist government, but without the economic underpinnings to sustain support it’s fair to say that Venezuelans are far from united around the current government.

Status Quo and Collapse

If the status quo continues, full collapse is possible and more emigrants rushing to leave is a likely scenario. If allies can help get Venezuela’s government through this time and money from drugs and black market mines flows sufficiently along with a heavy hand by security forces that stay loyal then collapse could be averted. Still, if nothing is done it is fully possible Venezuela will become a power clash between many different groups and see increased intervention from Russia and Cuba.

Another option is for Maduro to use the US transition mechanism to bargain for time, talk more to the opposition and buy himself time. This could also be used by Washington as a way to slowly oust him from power and bring about regime change, although it could also lead to the current government digging in its heels even further or leading to a cobbled together government of Chávista (including anti-Maduro Chávistas such as Somos Venezuela “We are Venezuela” who have grown disillusioned with his government) and opposition elements trying to keep the country together as it continues to buckle under sky high inflation that neared 10 million percent by the end of last year.

What Does the Future Hold for Venezuela?

Another option US analysts consider possible is for a temporary government to be set up that would hold fair elections where Maduro, Guaidó and others could run for office in return for lifting sanctions and helping out financially with the country. Armed colectivos enforcing government dogma must also be disarmed in order to prevent chaos breaking out.

The truth is that cynicism against US involvement in Latin America and world affairs has become so high – for partly valid reasons – that bad actors around the world are able to exploit fear of change or transition to cling to power. In order to truly believe in a free or fair scenario, the current government and array of opposition groups would have to trust in a range of conditions including justice and an independent judiciary that will be there for the victims of the current government and inclusion of as many different voices as possible who will agree to non-violent and non-corrupt involvement.

For such trust to happen, however, the regime would have to see more of an upside to relinquishing a grip on power than to holding on, which is quite unlikely at this point.

The current disintegration of Venezuela’s oil economy is part of a broader portrait of a country in collapse.

L'articolo Venezuela’s Oil Sector Grinds to a Halt proviene da InsideOver.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has few allies in the international community, and fewer still who can economically assist his starving nation. When Iran came to his aid by sending oil tankers loaded with gasoline, for a brief moment there was a glimmer of hope for Caracas. Now it is clear how the Trump administration is determined to stop the Venezuelan oil trade.

New US sanctions on shipping companies caused a wave of tankers, some of which were set to retrieve Venezuelan oil, to turn away from the state this week over fears of being blacklisted.

Blacklisting Works

The Trump administration has often used tariffs and sanctions as political tools to punish adversaries. Iran and Venezuela have both found themselves on the receiving end of them. In Venezuela’s case, Washington views Maduro’s presidency as illegitimate. In retaliation, the US has applied the same maximum pressure that it has successfully wielded against Iran to cripple its economy.

After five tankers ferrying gasoline from Iran successfully made port in Venezuela last week, the Trump administration initially took a reserved approach. The US has a contingent of vessels already off the coast of the state to interdict drug shipments, but the American ships were not ordered to stop the fuel shipments.

This week, the Trump administration threatened to blacklist dozens of tankers, as Reuters reported. The mere threat of blacklisting ships has already caused ripples in China, which is considering the possibility of denying to use any vessel that has made port in Venezuela over the past three years.

Washington is Not Backing Down

The threats from Washington also serve to stymie the small trickle of Venezuelan oil that is shipped to a few customers across the globe. The state-owned PDVSA refinery company saw exports fall to 452.000 barrels in May, the lowest point since 2003. Simply put, customers are afraid to accept shipments from Venezuela now over possible repercussions from Washington.

Tipco Asphalt, a Thai refinery company, is making plans to replace a vessel owned by Greek-based Thenamaris Ships Management. It was set to transport 1 million barrels of Venezuelan crude in Malaysia.

Some vessels were already blacklisted two weeks ago. The Seahero, owned by Thenamaris, and the Novo, owned by Dyncom Tankers Management Ltd, were on the receiving end of Trump’s maximum pressure campaign. Refineries often do not own their own fleets so they rent vessels, like the Seahero and Novo. When these become blacklisted, it’s not the refinery companies that are hurt the most, but the shipping companies.

“Anything on the potential sanctions list will just become toxic,” an oil company source told Reuters. “No one will touch it until it’s clear what the rules will be.”

No Trade Partners Left

The move will likely cut off the little help that Iran provided. Venezuela faces dual, competing problems. First, it has a severe gasoline shortage, which is where Tehran came in to help. There were some flaws with the strategy, notably that Maduro raided the state’s gold reserves to fund the shipment. Those wouldn’t last forever, experts warned, and therefore couldn’t be a long-term solution.

The second problem ties into the first; money isn’t coming in for the Venezuelan economy because the US has tightened its grip on exports. The states that did buy it, now will be unable to over threats of blacklisting vessels.

The powerful effect of blacklisting ships has even reached China, which is not a consumer of Venezuelan crude. Chinese oil companies will reportedly refuse to charter vessels that have been to Venezuela over the past year, according to a report from Al Jazeera.

US sanctions and the threat of retaliating against any vessel that sets sail for Venezuela will undoubtedly deter any future Iranian help in addition to suffocating the state’s main source of revenue. Going forward, Maduro’s economy will be entirely reliant on trade partners who are willing to risk breaking the rules and sacrificing ships to do so.

Tehran is not such a partner. Iran has been the closest resemblance of an ally that Venezuela had, but now it will be powerless to help. It would be foolish to risk losing a fleet of tankers to help a dictator barely clinging to power.

Maduro’s Days are Numbered

The move from Washington to completely eliminate trade with Venezuela leaves the question of how long can Maduro remain in power?

The state has gold reserves, but not all of it can be readily accessed. As it stands, Caracas is forced to beg the Bank of England to sell some of its reserves to buy food and humanitarian supplies, according to Al Jazeera. Whether the bank allows it remains to be seen. It could be on the receiving end of Trump sanctions if it is perceived as helping the Maduro regime.

Maduro’s hold on the Venezuelan presidency will last only as long as he is able to pay the military that defends his position. Once their paychecks stop, the military will have an incentive to install Juan Guaido, whom 50 states recognize as the rightful winner of the 2018 election.

That moment may come sooner now that the small flow of tankers will dry up completely. The nation already had a fuel shortage and incredibly low exports. International businesses including American and Russian oil companies pulled their operations from the state. At this point, there is very little left to lose, economically, for Maduro, who also has a US bounty on his head.

Maduro’s days are numbered. At some point his people and the military that keeps him in power will turn on him. That timeline seems to be moving up as the Trump administration continues to take aggressive action against the few trade partners Maduro has left.

L'articolo US Blacklists Vessels in Plan to Cut Off Venezuelan Oil Trade proviene da InsideOver.

Before US President Donald Trump tore apart his predecessor’s Iran Deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran, the mean average rate of recovery across all of Iran’s oil fields was 5.5 percent. According to Oil Price, it has now dropped to 4.5 percent following the end of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Enormous Economic Pressure on Iran

The Iranian Government is under pressure to boost economic activity again following Trump’s sanctions. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently disqualified most of the reformist candidates standing in his country’s parliamentary elections on February 21, in a bid to improve support for his regime. This is because he knows that US sanctions have upset the Iranian economy and could lead to a surge in support for reformists. This would weaken Khamenei’s grip, too. Therefore, the timing of the government’s latest announcement is no coincidence.

Iran’s Plan to Boost its Energy Industry

Iran’s Petroleum Minister Bijan Zanganeh declared he is awarding a $1.3 billion contract to improve oil recovery at two onshore oil fields in Khuzestan to Iran’s main infrastructure company, MAPNA Group. The Government plans to increase its own mean average recovery rate to 25 percent within the next three years.

There are many ways that this plan could work. The Islamic Republic has access to the oil and engineering expertise of China and Russia, two nations which have friendly relations with Iran and did not follow Trump’s lead in reimposing sanctions on Tehran.

Siemens also has a good relationship with MAPNA and recently signed an agreement to manufacture F class gas turbines in the country. If the MAPNA Group succeeds in boosting Iran’s oil recovery, it will be a devastating blow to the US President’s strategy for the country, which was also damaged by the Senate’s triumphant bid to restrict Trump’s war powers.

Rouhani: Tehran is in a ‘Better Situation’ Than Last Month

At a press conference last Sunday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani mocked the US President’s bid to apply maximum pressure on Iran. Though he acknowledged that Trump does not want war with his nation, Rouhani said that Tehran is in a “better situation” than it was last month. Furthermore, Rouhani stated that he is aware that declaring war on Iran would jeopardize the Republicans’ chances of winning the 2020 election.

Trump has few options left to him to apply maximum pressure on Iran and his weakness on this issue could be something that plays into his opponents’ hands, especially if Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg win the Democratic nomination. Both candidates have foreign policy knowledge and experience that matches Trump’s.

Despite this, Trump has succeeded in scrapping the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and he ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani last month.

Time for Iran and US to Take Macron’s Deal?

However, the time has come for both the US President and Rouhani to consider the option of an expanded deal outlined by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Macron has working relationships with both leaders. In September 2017, he raised the possibility of expanding the Iran Deal to incorporate Iran’s ballistic missile program. He also produced a four-point document that would ensure the US lifts all of its sanctions against Tehran. The text stated that both sides would have to comply with the agreement and the Islamic Republic would have to end its destablization activities in the Middle East.

It is an ambitious plan and if Rouhani and Trump can agree on a precondition for their meeting, like the partial lifting of US sanctions, it could be a success for both sides, especially for an American President who is facing the polls this year.

Trump claims to be a man who understands the “art of the deal.” But at some point he must sit down with his Iranian counterpart and thrash out a new agreement if he wants to prove that true.

L'articolo How an Oil Recovery Could Shatter Trump’s Iran Strategy proviene da InsideOver.

In 1953, after Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh threatened to limit the oil reserve control of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now BP, British Petroleum) and threatened to nationalize the country’s oil industry, the United States CIA put “Operation Ajax” (“Operation Boot” in the United Kingdom) into action. This successful coup d’etat put the Shah of Iran back into power and reestablished Iran’s oil policy in a favorable direction for Anglo-American interests. Thus began US involvement in attempting to control the Iranian government that holds approximately 10 percent of the world’s oil reserves and is “too close for comfort” to America’s closest ally in the Middle East with its vehemently anti- Israel position.

America’s Desire To Recapture Control Of Iran

The Western puppet regime of the Shah stayed in power in Iran for 26 years, until the 1979 Iranian revolution deposed the Shah and Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini took over, establishing the Islamic Republic. Since then, the United States has been tightening the economic and political noose around Iran to varying degrees. In response to the 1979 revolution, President Jimmy Carter placed economic sanctions on Iran. Put another way, he engaged in “economic warfare,” with the country. These sanctions included the freezing of assets, including property.

In 1987, President Ronald Reagan placed a second round of sanctions that were expanded in 1996 to include any firm doing business with Iran.

A third round of sanctions in 2006 were expanded to encompass banking and insurance transactions, shipping and web-hosting services in addition to the preexisting sanctions on oil, gas, the export of refined petroleum products and any dealing with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

Trump’s Intensification Of Iran Sanctions

These already crippling sanctions were expanded for the fourth time in September of 2019 after President Trump withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal and the country was subsequently alleged to have perpetrated an attack on a Saudi oil field. These new sanctions specifically targeted the Iranian National Bank with the US threatening to sanction “any country that purchases oil from Iran.”

This type of sanctioning or “economic warfare”, isn’t unique to Iran. Currently, America has about 8,000 (7,967 as of March 2019) sanctions in place around the world. While this is a lot, under President Bill Clinton it’s estimated that around 40 percent of the world’s populations (2.3 billion people) were subjected to some form of US sanctions. Nonetheless, given the tumultuous nature of the Middle East, Iran’s oil reserves, and the country’s strongly anti-Israeli stance, Iran is undoubtedly currently the biggest target for sanction by the US.

What Is America’s Sanctions Strategy?

America uses these sanctions to disrupt not just Iran’s national government but to impact all areas of the affected country, typically with a desire to cause unrest in the populace and change the regime. This economic strangling in place of an active or sponsored military coup d’etat has been the preferred method for the US government for decades now. Naomi Klein refers to the disruption of both the economy and the sociopolitical environment as “the Shock Doctrine” and is explained in detail in her book by the same name.

While “economic warfare” had been practiced for decades, the marriage between the economy and the sociopolitical aspect of a country began to take full shape in Indonesia and Greece in the 1960s. The strategy was fully realized by Milton Friedman and his “Chicago Boys” who assisted the CIA in the overthrow of socialist President Salvador Allende in Chile in 1973 through a combination of economic and sociopolitical manoeuvring and subversion. The successful coup resulted in the death of the Chilean leader. He was replaced with the American-endorsed dictator General Augusto Pinochet. Pinochet promptly privatized all of what Allende had nationalized. This allowed Western multi-national companies to bilk the country of both resources and money. Under the guise of “free-market capitalism”, this is the desired end game of Friedman’s plan and the US sanctions philosophy.

Overthrow, Replace, Plunder: Different Justifications, Same Strategy

Under the guises of “anti-communism” and the Drug War, Friedman’s ideas became the template for most of Latin America or anywhere America determined a threat. Today, “anti-terrorism” has been added to the list of reasons to enact this model of economic warfare.

Often requiring some element of military force to be effective, economic warfare prevents growth, prohibits manufacturing and causes businesses to fail which results in higher unemployment. Sanctions and economic strangulation also squeezes the middle class. Ironically, while these sanctions are designed to punish a regime or government, a disproportionate amount of the burden of them lands at the doorstep of the poorest and most vulnerable.

The efficacy of sanctions or this type of “economic warfare” remains questionable. In almost every case, some form of the military advisor or involvement was required to see the sanctions fully realized. The military involvement was either sanctioned and sponsored by America or was direct use of American troops. For example, during the Salvadoran Civil War from 1979 to1992, the US-supported and financed the creation of a junta to change the political environment. More recently, 13 years of international sanctions against Iraq in the 1990s and early 2000s starving and slowly killing hundreds of thousands of its population still ended up with the 2003 US-led invasion.

Iran’s Economic Nosedive And Resulting Civil Unrest

In Iran, the Milton Friedman boilerplate of strangling a country into submission by using both the economy and sociopolitical measures has seen the country spiral into an economic nosedive. This, in turn, has led to civil unrest. While these current sanctions were meant to bring Iran to the negotiating table to discuss their nuclear program, it’s not working. According to the NY Times, “the Iranians may be trying to reassemble the elements of the nuclear program and they have not yet re-engaged in negotiations. But the uprisings are soaking up political time and attention.”

These most recent sanctions on Iran have pushed Iranian citizens into the desired result of open protests, but the Iranian government and military have responded differently than other countries have in the past. Instead of ceding ground they have responded with even more ruthlessness. In November of 2019, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini summoned his forces to “do whatever it takes” to quell the current uprising. They did this by opening fire on unarmed Iranian protesters. While both the US State Department and Amnesty International put the death toll in the hundreds, the Iranian Interior Ministry reported to Reuters that the crackdown has led to a death toll closer to 1,500.

Sanctions Are Hurting Iranians More Than The Iranian Government

It seems as though the traditional model of sanctions and “economic warfare” is working as designed but not having the desired outcome of regime change. While citizens feel the brunt of them, they have only strengthened the resolve of Iranian hard-liners. They argue that “any negotiation” with America is futile because all the US wants is regime change and is vociferously “anti-Islam.” Moreover, because of America backing out of the nuclear deal, Iran’s government can often successfully argue that America’s government is inherently untrustworthy.

No one anticipated the resolve of the Iranians. Despite negative economic growth, the halving of Iran’s oil output and the skyrocketing cost of gas for its citizens that led to the current uprising, Iran’s leaders show no sign of acquiescing to American demands or caving into international condemnation and pressure.

Trump Is Strengthening Iran’s Hardliners

Almost unwittingly, combined with everything else, these latest sanctions by President Trump have almost made America an ally in Iran’s “quest for political dominance.” While these crippling sanctions continue to force Iran towards the edge of economic collapse they’re also leading Iran to align itself with the two largest foes of America: China and Russia.

As Iranian leadership continues to spout anti-American rhetoric, its citizens continue to suffer and the economy marches toward certain implosion, the Iranian Navy is preparing for four days of naval exercises with America’s two other adversaries, Russia and China.

It’s fair to say that Iran is facing its toughest period since the 1979 revolution. It’s also fair to say the current situation is not America’s desired result of the ongoing economic sanctions.

L'articolo Iran Uses Economic Sanctions To Become Third Biggest American Adversary proviene da InsideOver.

Iran began a joint naval exercise with China and Russia for four days starting December 27. The drills are being held in the northern part of the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman amid U.S-imposed sanction and ongoing tension in the Middle East.

The Reason For The Naval Exercises

Iran’s military spokesman General Abolfazl Shekarchi said the first joint military drill is aimed at promoting regional security. Such an act is seen as a response to the ongoing U.S maneuver of sending troops and defense equipment to its ally Saudi Arabia.Shekarchi said the two locations have been chosen for strategic reasons: “the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman are among the world’s key trade routes and many countries commute in the [two] regions and therefore establishing security there is important and vital.”

Iran Seeks Closer Ties With China And Russia

The dispute between Iran and the U.S follows particularly from the latter’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear pact (also known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) in 2018. US President Donald Trump claimed the agreement was not enough to effectively curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Washington’s sanctions and hostility toward Iran have pushed Tehran to boost ties with China and Russia. Russia and China are still doing business with Tehran, defying sanctions. Both see Iran as a key partner in the energy and infrastructure sectors. Both Beijing and Moscow are temporarily in a strategic partnership to counter the US influence, even though it is unlikely that China and Russia will form an enduring alliance, given their competing ambitions to exert influence in the region.

Russia and China both support for Iran and oppose the US-backed sanctions on Tehran. Newly-appointed Iran ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali, stressed the importance of the Tehran-Moscow cooperation to fight against what he called “Washington-led economic terrorism”. The US has also slapped sanctions on Moscow for allegedly poisoning former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia.

The Joint Naval Drill Sends A Strong Message To The US

Iran is trying to send a warning that the country is not isolated militarily and politically despite the prolonged US-led economic embargo. Two years ago, China and Iran held a joint military drill near the Strait of Hormuz following the US accusation that Iran had sent fast attack boats to disturb American ships there.

The four-day exercise at the end of this year comes after the attack on Saudi Aramco’s oil facility in September. Washington keeps accusing Iran of masterminding the attack despite the U.N investigation claiming that there have been no Iranian weapons used in the incident.

The timing of the joint exercise may be a bit sensitive, and some may also take it as a show of China’s support for Iran should there be any military conflicts in the near future. But it might well also simply be a regular military exchange between the nations if it is held in international waters and without targeting another country,” naval expert Lie Jie told SCMP.

Are The Naval Drills Prep For A Possible Attack From The US Or Israel?

This is the trickiest question, and it is too early to speculate on such a possibility. Also, there is no guarantee that China and Russia will defend Iran should an attack from either the US or Israel take place. However, the military drill at least has shown that Beijing and Moscow would potentially move to back up Iran if it is attacked.

Both Moscow and Beijing are cautious in responding to the current hostilities in the Middle East, including to characterize the naval exercise with Iran, due to the volatility of the circumstances in the Gulf as well as the sensitive timing of the training. Unlike Iran, both Russia and China did not immediately release an official statement regarding the naval drill.

Russia and China also maintain a good relationship with Iran’s adversaries, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Therefore, Moscow and Beijing are trying their best to balance their interests and prevent the conflict from spreading.

As Iran-focused defense analyst Farhad Rezaei explained: “First, China and Russia are also partners of Saudi Arabia and Israel as well, and they are not happy with Iran’s harassing of the kingdom and its verbal attack on Israel. Second, the Chinese are not happy with Iran’s actions in the waters and its alleged attack on Aramco, because that will cause a remarkable increase in the oil price.”

L'articolo What Iran-Russia-China Naval Exercises Mean For The US And The Middle East proviene da InsideOver.