Joe Biden has become the 46th President of the United States. Shortly before noon EST on Jan. 20, Biden was sworn in and delivered an impressive inaugural speech that not only marked a profound contrast to Donald Trump’s tone in recent years but contained one central message: unity.

‘Democracy Has Prevailed’

Biden said that there could be no peace without unity and no progress in his inaugural address, only bitterness and anger. He pledged to work with all his heart for unity and reconciliation.

“With unity, we can do great things, important things,” said Biden. “This is our moment in history. And unity is the way forward.” American had overcome past challenges with unity.

“I will be a president to all Americans,” Biden promised, including for those who did not vote for him – extending his arms to Trump voters. “This is the day of democracy.” It is not a candidate’s victory that was celebrated, but the victory of democracy. “Democracy has prevailed.”

Remembering the Victims of COVID-19

Biden also remembered the people who had lost their lives in the coronavirus pandemic. He denounced the inequality between the ethnic groups and called on his fellow citizens to rethink: “Let’s make a fresh start, everyone together.”

Even though the president did not mention his predecessor by name, it was apparent that Biden was focused on a fundamental departure from the past four years’ political spirit and about a paradigm shift, a return to normalcy.

Biden also spoke out against the spread of false reports and conspiracy theories, which had caused the country tremendous problems: “We have to reject the culture in which facts are manipulated and even fabricated,” he said. America must be better than that.

And he also promised America’s partners a fresh start – “we will go into the world again”, he said and announced that the USA would be a “strong partner for security and peace.”

An Unprecedented Inauguration

Biden’s inauguration at the Capitol took place under unprecedented security precautions. Two weeks ago, violent supporters of Donald Trump stormed the building. The fear of further violence was, therefore, significant. The center of Washington was cordoned off on a large scale. In addition to numerous police officers, thousands of the National Guard members were deployed. Instead of hundreds of thousands of spectators, around 200,000 small US flags represented the people in and around the National Mall. But despite appearances by Lady Gaga and Jennifer Lopez, the presence of 25,000 National Guardsmen in the capital always reminded one of the carnage the country had recently faced.

Biden takes over the most powerful office in the world in an unprecedented time of crisis. With more than 400,000 coronavirus-related deaths, the US is the country with the highest number of victims worldwide and is in a devastating economic crisis.

In regular times, Biden’s day would have ended with attending numerous inaugural balls in Washington. Today, Biden has already announced a whole series of decisions for the first day intended to mark a break with Trump’s politics – for example, on the fight against the coronavirus, racism, and climate policy. Biden knows he has to hurry, as the pressure is on from day one.

Fortunately for him, Democrats now possess majorities in the Senate and the House. Most of Biden’s plans are thus fairly conceivable to realize. However, part of Biden’s presidency will emphasize bipartisan efforts to tackle the crises ahead. His attendance of a church service in Washington with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders, including powerful Republican Senator Mitch McConnell prior to his inaugural on Wednesday morning, was a first powerful sign in this direction.

“It’s a new day in America,” wrote Biden on Twitter.

Whether unity amongst the parties is temporary or achievable remains to be seen – and the upcoming Trump impeachment trial in the Senate will be the first litmus test.

L'articolo Joe Biden Becomes the 46th President of the United States proviene da InsideOver.

What transpired in Washington on Wednesday was a modern-version day of infamy: Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to prevent a joint session of Congress from confirming the electoral college’s votes certifying Joe Biden as President.

After several hours of violent occupation by Trump supporters on Wednesday evening, the Capitol in Washington was declared safe again. Heavily armed police officers cleared the building and also used stun grenades and tear gas.

What Happened?

Chaotic scenes played out in the Capitol Wednesday after numerous Trump supporters made their way into the building where a joint session of Congress was getting ready to confirm the result of the presidential election in November and Joe Biden’s victory, a purely formal act.

Instead, Senators and Members of the House had to be brought to safety from an angry mob made up of extremists who call themselves patriots.

TV pictures showed how rioters smashed windows, ransacked parliamentary offices, and posed in the vacated Senate Chamber. For hours, parts of the building were in the hands of the mob. Unarmed Trump supporter Ashli Babbit sustained a gunshot wound during confrontations and died hours later.

A curfew was put into effect in Washington since 6 p.m. local time, and neighboring states also sent the National Guard and state police to the capital.

According to the police, several weapons were seized, and according to media reports, the FBI also defused at least two explosive devices.

What Caused the Riot?

The protests escalated after Trump called on his supporters during a “Stop the Steal” rally on Wednesday morning to protest against the confirmation of Congress’s election. Trump also repeated his conspiracy theory that he had been cheated out of winning the election.

When the looting started, the president tweeted, “These are things and events that happen,” claiming again that his “landslide victory” was stolen. According to Trump, his supporters were “great patriots” who have long been treated unfairly, he wrote. Previously, Trump had called on the people at the Capitol – also via Twitter – to be moderate. “Stay peaceful!” He wrote, calling on them to support the police and security forces.

After the unrest, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube took an unusually tough stance and deleted Trump’s posts in which he again disseminated his unsubstantiated claims about electoral fraud. Twitter even blocked the president’s account for the next twelve hours. In the event of further violations, the account could be blocked entirely, the company said.

The election confirmation process continued after Vice President Mike Pence condemned the events in an unusually harsh manner.

Biden: Riots Were an ‘Unprecedented Attack’

President Joe Biden spoke of an “unprecedented attack” on US democracy. The violence must end, said Biden. “Storming the Capitol, breaking windows, occupying offices, occupying the United States Senate, rummaging through the desks of the House of Representatives in the Capitol, and threatening the safety of duly elected officials is not a protest,” Biden noted. “It’s a riot.”

Wednesday’s occurrences were the culmination of four years in which President Trump tried everything to divide America, weaponize hatred against institutions and benefit off the people’s outrage.

There is simply no denying that he is greatly responsible for one of the darkest hours in America’s history. By repeatedly claiming the election was stolen, the self-proclaimed president of law and order encouraged these insurrectionists.

In terms of actions, right now, anything should and must be on the table, from impeachment and censure, to invoking the 25th Amendment and removing the president from office.

The US will only be able to revitalize its norms that have been eroded over these past four years if it holds Donald Trump accountable. Accountable for having fulfilled his promise of not accepting a peaceful transition of power and for having turned the US into a “banana republic,” as former president George W. Bush wrote in reaction to the events that unfolded.

L'articolo Under Siege: Trump Supporters Storm the Capitol proviene da InsideOver.

The United States is split in two. On the one hand are Donald Trump’s supporters and on the other side are Joe Biden’s. America is an increasingly polarized and divided country. In the effort to better understand what is happening in America — and beyond — InsideOver interviewed Gabriele Segre, director of the Lugano-based Vittorio Dan Segre Foundation, which seeks to extend and promote a culture of political and social coexistence.

Is coexistence still possible for the American people?

It’s very simple. What is happening at present repeats what happened during the months of the election campaign, when the opponent was delegitimized, refusing to recognize his values and intrinsic dignity. But this goes far beyond America. It is the same dynamic that appears in any competition, whether political, social or in human relationships.

Could you clarify that point?

When you delegitimize the other’s ability to manifest their identity, to express it fully, you create a rupture. When you delegitimise this ability, you are removing the basic conditions for coexistence. We see it in every type of identitarian manifestation: identities are multiple, mutating, they change over time. So each of us is the bearer of dozens and dozens of identities on an individual level, let alone on the social level. Our identities are religious, social, gender, political and so forth. When we refuse to recognize some of them rather than others, we’re playing a very dangerous game. We’re creating the need to legitimize our identity by the negation of the other’s. Moreover, historically, identities have also been affirmed through conflict.

Could you explain that?

Most conflicts, including wars, are the result of social interaction. When it is internal to a society, it takes on the terms of civil war, riots, protests, upheavals. We see it in America today, without reaching the extreme consequences of a civil war that hopefully will be avoided. When there is a confrontation between identities, historically, either there is a clash and war breaks out and whoever wins has a supremacy of identity deligitimization or, to overcome the conflict or clash of identities, a space is created above identity that encompasses all other identities. These two forms of identity relationships are unstable and inevitably create social instability, a level of disagreement at first individual and then collective that leads to a clash. Because as an individual you feel lost in a society that doesn’t keep you safe, that fails to acknowledge your needs. This is what is happening in America.

Speaking of coexistence, there is a phrase from Terence, the Latin playwright, which I believe is pertinent: “Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.” It means “I am a man, I do not consider anything human alien to me.” Is it on this basis that coexistence is founded?

It certainly is. Humanism is another of the main factors in the culture of coexistence. There is a mistaken interpretation of humanism in the conventional wisdom. We’re all human and so being members of the human race is sufficient to guarantee coexistence. That isn’t the case. Coexistence is based on three principles. First: the dignity of a specific identity. Second: the mutual recognition of the dignity of the other. Third: humanism. Humanism is fundamental, it is central, but be careful not to identify humanism with human identity. Human identity is one of many identities.

The fact that I am human must not downgrade whatever else I am, man or woman, Italian or American, Democrat rather than Republican. Each of these identities is at least as valid as my human identity. This understanding of humanism is fundamental to recognizing that there is a lowest common denominator, but that it should not detract from everything else. Which is a bit of a risk when we talk about human rights. A problem is created which is equal to that of the non-recognition of humanism. It becomes an ideal totalitarianism that must be avoided.

How can we live together in the time of COVID-19?

The virus has hit the nodes of relationships in society. We had built an ecosystem that had its own logic and balance, certainly fallacious and perfectible, but it was still in place. The cultural, social, educational, generational and political dynamics that existed in society have been undermined by the infiltration of the virus. The related connections and relationships have also become unhinged. Intervention on one element had a domino effect on all the others.

So we find ourselves in a completely new reality in the making, in which we ask ourselves how we can strike a balance between the different parts of the system? This concerns first of all identities, with the ability to read and understand which parts and positions are at stake, and then to understand their relationships. Promoting a coexistence between them, the ability to find an ecosystem balance, is a task that lies with the public institution, the state, and we knew this before. But the state alone is not enough. We have developed the concept of the economy of impact, which existed even before the virus. The virus, in this case, acted as a catalyst for a dynamic that was already taking place.

And what happened next?

The state is no longer able to shoulder the agenda of total public interest, meaning the relations between different identities. It is no longer able to create a system of sustainable coexistence. Therefore each identity has to shoulder its own piece of responsibility, not as a passive subject, but as an active player in the relationship between identities. In the sense that the world of economics must no longer be irreconcilable with the private interest, it is necessary to develop a vision of the state in which the private interest coincides with the public interest.

Please note, we are not talking about socialism: the segment of corporate activism has to take charge of what the state is no longer able to take responsibility for. This is true of the third sector, schools, corporations and trade unions — whatever the type of representation.

Does this mean that private individuals have to replace the state to some extent?

Private interest as such no longer exists. Under the principle of coexistence, the virus has removed the possibility of watertight compartments, it has removed the correlation of private interest with someone else’s private interest. This today determines a new level of symbiosis, of interdependence that has to be faced differently.

What are the biggest risks for coexistence?

That there is no discussion. This is because coexistence is first of all culture. There is no appropriate recipe in terms of living together. There is the possibility of understanding the reasons for living together and interpreting them in specific areas of action. The first thing to do would be to look at people through the lens of the culture of coexistence so that they engage in coexistence, but this is not happening.

Are there examples of coexistence around us?

Yes. In the business world, for example, coexistence is becoming an increasingly important concept. There is greater attention to the role that has to be played in internal relations. Companies are also taking care of the needs of their workers, obviously as far as possible, where the state fails to offer its assistance, say. Companies are now increasingly taking responsibility for the community in which they operate. I am not speaking only of the environment, but also of society.

The world of finance itself is developing a new understanding of what is profitable. If we think that three years ago the president of BlackRock said to all its subsidiaries: “It is not enough for us that you are sustainable from an economic or environmental point of view. We need to see that our business has a positive impact on society.”

This completely changes the dynamics of relations between work and the impact it has. So there is a direct interest of the company to do something good within society. Good not in Christian terms, but in terms of a positive impact on the public interest. This is because this is the way business models are measured. That’s how they get their investments.

Before the coronavirus emergency exploded, there was a lot of talk about the relationship between people and the environment, about coexistence between nature and humanity. Is this also a form of coexistence?

Definitely. But be careful not to confuse the culture of coexistence. Coexistence with the environment should not be confused with coexistence in the environment. Because the concept of coexistence presupposes mutual understanding. And in the relationship with nature there is no understanding and so no coexistence.

There is coexistence between human beings within nature, as well as within the context of the virus. We have to start thinking of our relationship with nature in these terms. If I pollute the air I’m not usurping the air, I’m usurping someone else’s ability to breathe clean air because I have polluted it. So it’s always a human relationship, but in different contexts.

Action can be taken to develop an awareness of the environment from the Paris Accords on. It has to be done, but it needs to be accompanied by a strong investment in the culture of coexistence. It is not just about saving the planet, but about saving the planet to save the coexistence between us.

L'articolo Coexistence: a Possible Lesson from the Recent US Election proviene da InsideOver.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris swooned as a drone swarm spelled out “BIDEN” in the shape of the continental United States, lighting up the night sky above Wilmington, Delaware on Nov. 8. Coldplay’s “Sky Full of Stars” blared as supporters cheered. Biden spoke of national unity and being a president for all Americans. It seemed almost like a return to regularly-scheduled programming: back to the type of generic commander-in-chief from the movies with his practiced turns of phrase, comforting gestures and grand rhetoric.

The Biden-Harris victory rally was accompanied by celebrations of many Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans, Independents and neoconservatives, all of them busy cheering on the impending departure of the “Cheeto King”. Former US National Security Adviser and Secretary of State in the George W. Bush administration Condoleezza Rice — who previously motivated support for America’s military mission in Iraq by claiming that a lack of action would result in nuclear attacks on American cities — called for “respect” and “empathy” in celebration of Biden’s win.

A ‘Win for the World?’

The Biden-Harris win was supposedly a “win for the world.” (Insert “arc of justice” phraseology, smirking European self-righteousness and other overblown silliness here). No more mean tweets or largely rudderless, erratic leadership characterized as “authoritarianism”: the world is saved. There’s even support for Biden from former National Security Adviser and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

Tik Tok users posted about how different it was to watch Biden’s typical speech after “four years of fascism.” No word on why anyone would feel safe to express such views in a truly fascist system, especially if the handover of executive power has not yet taken place. It’s almost like the Trump administration is just enough fascism to be scary and super bad and show that you’re an incredible person for opposing it but not quite enough to actually result in you being shoved you in an unmarked van and disappeared for dissident speech. Interesting.

Voter Fraud Allegations

Overly credulous support for allegations of widespread voter fraud have been just as disquieting as smug certainty that there was no voter fraud. It’s clear that at least some voter fraud against Trump and the Republican party did take place. Although it seems accurate that Trump is drawing out the situation in order to leverage political capital and hang on to an illusory hope of still winning in the courts, it is true that he could still end up victorious in Arizona and Georgia. Some kind of miracle recount comeback in Pennsylvania (despite some claims of mass fraud) and Wisconsin seems like pie-in-the-sky, but the Trump team’s attempt isn’t as completely insane as some pundits have asserted.

The idea that controversy is purely imaginary is somewhat presumptuous, and — even despite that — the millions of Americans who still believe the election was stolen and will continue to believe that regardless of what transpires in the coming weeks presents a major roadblock to Biden’s supposed “unity” and healing. Should Trump concede? At this point the chance of actually overturning the election look miniscule, so yes he should. Will he? Likely not for some time yet, and don’t hold your breath to see Trump at Biden’s inauguration, either.

What’s Next in America?

The Civil War touted by many is nowhere to be found. Gun stocks have even been falling because of the lack of all-out chaos some were predicting. It’s been a bathetic outcome so far. Stop the Steal rallies have been largely harmless, despite some incidents. What would have happened if Trump had won is a far different story, and one can only imagine suburbanite BLM activists boosting the antifa and left-activist hardliners in intensifying the chaos that already swept the nation after the death of George Floyd.

The 242,000 Americans who have died from COVID-19 are undoubtedly the main reason Trump lost the election. Although 96% of those who have died also had underlying health conditions, officials have been alarmed at the surge in excess deaths caused by the comorbidity of the coronavirus and caution that most of the 96% likely would not have died without contracting coronavirus.

Trump owns the grassroots of the GOP despite his loss. Record high voter turnout shows that Americans are engaged and energized by the electoral process, and record high minority votes for Trump also show that Democratic narratives about the president fell flat for many Hispanic, Black and other minority voters. Politics increasingly seems to be equally or as much about generalized class and cultural confrontation as specific policy beliefs.

Conservatives Have an Opportunity

The Biden Administration won’t have carte blanche. With Mitch McConnell still heading up the Senate Biden is going to have to compromise on many core legislative proposals. His plan to create “millions” of jobs with green and renewable energy projects could pay off, but Biden’s continuing flip-flopping on the bizarre “Green New Deal” calls into question exactly what his mass projects would entail and how they would affect fair competition with existing industries.

Conservatives also have an opportunity to push back on everything from critical race theory to overwrought woke dictates in education and other sectors that are likely to come from the Biden administration. The new president will be in a largely awkward position where it’s near impossible to pass meaningful leftist legislation but his base wants results and eventually tires of repeating that Harris is the first woman of color female vice-president. As Biden attempts to satiate its foaming-at-the-mouth hard-left base by giving them socially-left-wing cotton candy while as much as possible avoiding any real systemic economic or corporate reform this will present a growing field of opportunities for conservatives to push back institutionally and legislatively.

The Future of the GOP

There is no reason to believe the GOP will remain fundamentally united following this defeat. It is increasingly likely that partisan politics will continue on a trajectory of inter-partisan politics, with the Trump and national populist wing of the Republican party splitting off and forming its own media empire, platform and candidates and the establishment “polite” wing of the GOP currying favor at the Biden administration and trying to carve out a new slice of the electorate that’s not fully liberal on all issues but shies away from the red meat of full-on Trumpism.

As stated, Trump now owns the activist base of the GOP and Reaganism is not coming back at the grassroots level. Trump has re-appealed to minority, working class and forgotten voters who had drifted from the GOP and his legacy could ostensibly be used to build a national populist coalition of socially conservative and economically populist voters who disagree with establishment Republican and Democratic cosmopolitanism and economic free market dogma.

Despite losing, the fact that there was no “Blue Wave” is promising for the Republican party once midterms and 2024 roll around.

The Future of the Democrats

By gaining power the Democrats have been able to temporarily patch over their own fractured party, at least for now. The idea that the American center and left has truly formed a grand coalition is, of course, pure fantasy. The far left still wants “Death to America” and to think they will be assuaged by a Biden-Harris administration is absurd.

Nonetheless, the Democrats will likely be able to keep the corporate train rolling despite clashes that are likely to continue to occur in the future in places like Portland. Presumably some mix of identity politics, coronavirus panic measures and papered-over neoliberalism with occasional nods to environmentalism and pro-abortion rhetoric will manage to satiate their activist left base and allow them to continue sidestepping actual positive reforms for the working class. Essentially the Democrat’s win means they can now fake it for four years, whereas the broken Republican party no longer has that luxury.

The longer-term view, however, is one in which the Democratic party increasingly starts losing immigrants, minorities and social democrats who are no longer satisfied by woke rhetoric or agree with the Democrats on some issues but find their compliance with foreign military adventurism and strident intolerance of socially conservative views off-putting.

Party On?

The Big Tent concept of American politics is barely holding together. Look for hyper-partisan politics to increasingly become inter-partisan politics, with surging numbers of voters disillusioned with both major political parties. The Sanders and Trump voters have burned their memberships at the Donkey & Elephant Country Club and there’s not much chance of getting them to rejoin.

L'articolo Party in the USA proviene da InsideOver.

It took Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu twelve hours before congratulating President-elect Joe Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris. Even though the writing of President Donald Trump’s defeat had been on the wall, Netanyahu needed a moment to accept that the time of generous gifts and the president’s almost undivided attention has come to an end.

Certain policies affecting Israel are about to change, however, under Joe Biden, the Jewish state will not become irrelevant.

Netanyahu on Trump: ‘Israel’s Best Friend Ever in the White House’

Netanyahu, who did not get along well with President Obama, chose his words deliberately when he assessed what the Trump presidency meant to his country: “Israel’s best friend ever in the White House.”

And understandably so. For in the past four years, the Trump administration has strengthened the Jewish state’s position in the Middle East to an arguably unprecedented extent.

Trump advocated Israel’s sovereignty over the controversial Golan Heights, which the country captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War. Also, in contrast to Obama and Biden, Trump approved the building and expansion of Jewish communities in the West Bank. Trump also kept his campaign promise and moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Meanwhile, his Middle East plan, the “deal of the century,” was also widely seen as beneficial to Israel.

Trump’s Crackdown on the Palestinian Authority and Brokering of Arab-Israeli Peace Deals

The White House also demonstratively suspended its financial contributions to the Palestinian Authority and its share of United Nations aid to Palestine. Most recently, Trump brokered “normalization agreements” with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, strengthening Israel’s position and further isolated the Palestinians.

Hence it does not come as a surprise that Israel is mainly pro-Trump. Indeed, according to a National Democracy Institute survey, 70 percent of Jewish Israelis had wanted another term for him.

Biden is a Dedicated Supporter of Israel

However, not all is lost for the Jewish state. Those who feel Biden could engage in a spree of revocation, reversing all of Trump’s policies, or even question America’s unconditional support for Israel do not seem to know the President-elect and his devotion to Israel.

Biden has already made it clear that he will not reverse the decision on America’s embassy in Jerusalem. Nor will the Golan Heights be up for discussion.

Biden’s commitment to Israel goes so far that he applauded the agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. He called the deal a “historic breakthrough” and pledged to convince more countries in the region to sign similar agreements.

What About the Two-State Solution?

However, Biden and Harris do support the two-state solution. The annexation plans of parts of the West Bank, which Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had, should thus be off the table under his administration.

Nonetheless, Netanyahu does not need to fear any demands of significant concessions to the Palestinians from Biden, as Obama attempted.

Biden made this clear during the Democratic primaries when Senator Bernie Sanders – a notorious critic of Israel – suggested that the US use its Israeli support as leverage and seek concessions in favor of the Palestinians.

Biden’s answer was concise and unmistakable, calling Sanders’ idea “bizarre.”

How Will Biden’s Policies Toward Israel Differ from Trump’s?

However, Biden’s policies will differ regarding a reversal of the Trump-instigated withdrawal of economic and humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. Moreover, Biden has also pledged to reopen the US Consulate in East Jerusalem and permit representation of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in Washington.

Accordingly, Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas quickly announced that he could hardly wait to work with Joe Biden.

Assessing the Biden-Netanyahu Relationship

What will also likely change is the relationship between Netanyahu and the White House. While Biden and Netanyahu have known each other for over 40 years, both Biden and the Democratic Party have not forgotten how Netanyahu fully sided with the Republican party in recent years. Netanyahu also openly supported Mitt Romney in 2012 and railed alongside Republicans against the Iran nuclear deal during his speech in Congress in 2015.

Netanyahu’s open dislike of Obama broke one basic rule of Israeli and American politics: fostering consistently good relations with Republicans and Democrats, like all Israeli prime ministers before him.

However, a US paradigm shift away from unconditional support for Israel towards prioritizing the Palestinians is as inconceivable under Biden as it would have been under Trump, even though the tone and diplomatic approach are about to change.

Moreover, with Biden’s pledge to tackle the coronavirus and help the economy regain traction, the new administration’s focus will undoubtedly shift towards the domestic side for the foreseeable future.

L'articolo What Does the Biden Presidency Mean for Israel? proviene da InsideOver.

Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States. According to CNN, NBC, Fox News, and the AP, he prevailed against incumbent Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania and thus obtained the required majority in the electorate.

The Key Role of the Keystone State

The state of Pennsylvania was decisive for Biden’s success. Biden was able to prevail against Trump and thus achieve the required majority in the electorate. While four states are still counting votes, Biden now has obtained 290 electoral votes, with 270 required for victory. Trump remains unchanged at 214 electoral votes.

In the days before the election, the signs were increasingly pointing to Biden’s victory. However, in states such as Pennsylvania, a neck-and-neck race transpired until the last votes were counted.

Biden: ‘I Will Be a President for All Americans’

In an initial response on Twitter, Biden said he was honored. “We have hard work ahead of us,” he wrote. “But I promise you, I will be a president for all Americans – whether you voted for me or not.”

In a separate statement, Biden said it was time to unite and heal the country. “Now that the campaign is over, it is time to leave the anger and harsh rhetoric behind and come together as a nation.” He went on to write, “We are the United States of America. And there is nothing we cannot do if we do it together.”

Trump’s Reaction to Biden’s Victory

Meanwhile, Trump is still not inclined to accept Biden’s victory. According to the president, no state has formally confirmed Biden as a winner. There will be recounts, primarily in the contested states, and his election campaign team has “submitted valid and lawful legal challenges, the president continued.

A recount of votes cast in Georgia is indeed conceivable, as Trump and Biden are less than 0.5 percentage points apart. In this case, the state’s electoral law requires a recount.

However, the state has yet to conclude the counting, and Biden’s lead is likely to increase, not decrease due to it.

Trump Team to Begin Taking Legal Action to Dispute Results

From Monday on, Trump’s campaign team will also start taking legal action against the counts.

Trump and his team complain above all that election observers were allegedly kept away from the counting room and that some illegal ballot papers were cast. Neither the president nor his team provided valid evidence for either allegation. The chances of success of his team’s lawsuits are accordingly low.

Biden Supporters Celebrate

Just seconds after several US media had declared Biden the winner of the election cheers broke out in many major cities across the country. On the streets of New York and Washington, people clapped and screamed with joy. Hundreds flocked to Times Square and Black Lives Matter Plaza to celebrate.

Congratulations to Biden quickly came from all over the world, such as Paris, Berlin, and London. The leaders of the EU also called for a closer transatlantic partnership. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on Twitter on Saturday:

“The EU Commission is ready to intensify cooperation with the new government and the new Congress” to address challenges such as the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, digital transformation, Address security, and the multilateral system.

Historical Election

It is an election that will go down in history. Not only due to President’s Trump unprecedented conduct or because Joe Biden received the most votes of all time, but also because Senator Kamala Harris is now the first woman and black American to take over the office of vice president. In an initial reaction to the election victory, she promised the citizens that she would serve the country with Biden.

“This election is about so much more than Joe Biden and me. It’s about the soul of America and our willingness to fight for it,” she wrote on Twitter. “We have a lot of work to do. Let’s get started.”

The work for President-elect Biden has already started. According to media reports, he wants to present a council of experts to contain the coronavirus pandemic on Monday.

The establishment of the body before the announcement of the personnel election for the first cabinet positions underscores the importance Biden plans to give to the fight against the pandemic in his first year in office.

L'articolo Joe Biden Beats Donald Trump for the Presidency proviene da InsideOver.

The Rust Belt used to be the industrial heart of the US. President Trump exceeded expectations here in 2016 as he promised to revitalize the struggling region and create jobs and prosperity. Four years later, these promises are on the ballot for many in the region, and the polls ought to concern the incumbent.

Where is the Rust Belt?

The Rust Belt area begins in New York State and runs west through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, Indiana and Michigan. It ends in northern Illinois, eastern Iowa, and southeast Wisconsin. It was formerly home to America’s most important and core industries, such as steel and automobile manufacturing, and once comprised the nation’s industrial heartland. However, it has seen a sharp decline in recent decades due to the increased cost of domestic labor and capital-intensive manufacturing.

To this day many manufacturers in the Rust Belt are still utilizing expensive and outdated equipment and machinery and struggle with local labor and materials. To compensate for this, the majority of them began to look elsewhere for cheaper steel and labor, namely from foreign sources.

Globalization’s Pressure on the Rust Belt

Globalization also led to increased capital flows in the US capital markets. This benefited the US service sector but contributed to a higher dollar and less competitive US industries. While once a hub for people from the rest of the country and from abroad, the increasing crisis led to an exodus of people from the region. Hundreds of thousands of well-paid worker jobs have been eliminated, forcing people to move away, searching for work and better living conditions.

As a result, the Rust Belt is now dominated by a declining US manufacturing industry. The economic losses, falling population and ruination of cities like Detroit created a deep crisis consisting of a shrinking population, falling incomes, spiking social issues, and high unemployment in the once-booming area.

Key Swing States in the Rust Belt

Several political swing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan are part of the Rust Belt. Since these states are often the deciding factor in presidential elections, the Rust Belt plays a crucial role in US politics.

The population structure, which is characterized by white industrial workers, used to be considered a stronghold of the Democrats and part of the so-called “blue wall.” Donald Trump shattered the blue wall in 2016, which made his election possible.

Four years ago, Trump’s strategy was to promise these people a better future. However, not much of it has materialized.

Trump’s Unfulfilled Economic Promises to the Rust Belt

One of Trump’s significant economic policies over the past two years has been protectionism. He introduced 25 percent tariffs on steel imports from China and Europe in 2018, claiming this would help domestic steelmakers reduce competition from imports and cut several regulations the Obama administration had introduced.

The US steel industry temporarily ramped up production – and then quickly went down again – and with it the prices. Although the volume of steel imports has decreased, there is little evidence that the domestic steel industry and its workers actually benefit from Trump’s policies.

While employment and wage growth continued nationally under Trump, unemployment in the steel industry in the Rust Belt states had remained significant, even before COVID-19 hit the economy. Before the corona pandemic in March 2020, the unemployment rate was around six percent – as it was when Trump took office in January 2017. But the many well-paid new jobs that Trump had promised, do not exist, especially not in the steel industry.

‘Promises Made, Promises Kept?’ Hardly

Thus, one cannot speak of “promises made, promises kept,” and the polls reflect this. In almost every Rust Belt state, Biden’s lead is either comfortable or, at best, the situation is a coin toss between the incumbent and the challenger Joe Biden.

What these polls are actually worth will be seen on Tuesday, when the same workers are asked to vote and put their faith in either Trump for a second term or Biden for a first. One thing is for certain: neither of them can win the elections without strong support in the Rust Belt states.

L'articolo What is the Rust Belt and Why Does it Matter on Election Day? proviene da InsideOver.

After the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump went down not only in infamy but in history last week, it will now be up to running mates Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris, to convince the American people.

Snapshot of Vice-Presidential Debates

The first vice presidential debate dates back to 1976, and for the vast majority, they trailed in viewership behind the presidential debates. In 2016, 37 million people watched the vice-presidential debate between then-Indiana Governor Pence and Senator Tim Kaine, comprising 44% less than the audience for the lowest-rated Clinton-Trump presidential debate of 2016, which had a viewership of 66.5 million.

The only exception to this rule was in 2008, when more people (69.9 million) watched the vice-presidential debate between Senator Biden and Governor Sarah Palin than those who watched any of the three debates between Senator Obama and Senator John McCain.

How Important are VP Debates in Swaying Voters?

However, despite the still high ratings, the debate – so far – does not seem to pose much significance for voters historically and seldom influences voter’s decisions. A 2012 Gallup study concluded that in presidential campaigns between 1976 and 2008, debates rarely altered voter support for a Republican or Democratic vice-presidential candidate by more than a percentage point or two.

In 2010, a study published in Presidential Study Quarterly confirmed this trend. Between 1968 and 2008, VP candidates influenced less than 1 percent of the cases on whether voters changed their political decisions, meaning those who switched from one party and candidate to the other after the debate.

The Unique Nature of the Upcoming Debate

The debate that takes place on Wednesday, October 7, at 9 p.m. Eastern Standard Time will be unlike any other past VP debate, however. The circumstances are unique. Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, the country’s crisis, and the fact that both the incumbent and challenger are 74 and 77 years old, respectively, are a clear reminder that either Pence or Harris could find themselves as Commander-in-Chief before the next executive terms finishes in 2024.

Starting with John Adams, who succeeded George Washington in 1797, fourteen Vice Presidents became the Commander in Chief – though for different reasons. A scenario in which either Harris or Pence is next on that list is by no means inconceivable, and hence the stakes for the debate are arguably higher than usual.

What to Expect in This Debate

If last week’s debate was an indicator of what to expect, the public ought to expect carnage. However, anyone expecting the kind of reality show similar to that between Trump and Biden is likely to be disappointed. Harris is going to be aggressive but will not reach a Trumpian standard, nor will Pence counter-attack by telling her to “shut up” or calling her “a clown.” Instead, one might even learn about a political vision, and both participants are potentially able to conclude a sentence – also a pleasant change from the previous week.

For the aforementioned reasons, both candidates are under considerable pressure. Due to Biden’s age, Americans are rightfully interested in whether Harris is presidential material. During the debate, Harris hence needs to conduct a balancing act. One the one hand, she needs to utilize her rhetorical skills but has to exude a certain (presidential) gravitas. On the other hand, this accomplished immigrants’ daughter has to motivate other people of color to vote. That, in turn, requires aggressiveness.

Hitting Pence in His Weak Spot

Harris’ agenda is likely to expose Pence’s primary handicap. Since April, as head of the White House’s coronavirus task force, he has regularly forecasted that the pandemic would end soon. In May, he spoke of “enormous progress” in the fight against the virus. In the meantime, more than 200,000 Americans have now died of COVID-19 and, since last week, various Trump staffers and other Republicans have contracted the virus after an event in the Rose Garden announcing new SCOTUS pick Amy Coney Barrett. Harris will very likely address all of these topics and more.

Pence is a Skilled Debater and Politician

With that being said, Pence also has several advantages over Harris. After four years at Trump’s side, he has tremendous experience with key political challenges, particularly those related to the economy and foreign policy. Moreover, Pence has already had a vice-presidential debate. In 2016 he debated Tim Kaine and distinguished himself as a veritable candidate who knew how to defend the then-presidential candidate Trump skillfully.

Pence has been a highly talented politician throughout his career, and he certainly does not consider the vice presidency to be the apogee of his career. One can anticipate him to continuously reiterate not only on Trump’s success but also on his role, all to establish himself as a future president – and it will be on Harris to poke holes in that narrative.

Two Competing Perspectives

Harris cannot win a debate on experience. She has only been in Washington since 2017, marginalized in a Republican-controlled Senate. She appeared in debates when she ran for Senator and Attorney General and the Democratic Primaries. However, the bottom line is that Harris runs on talent and prospects, not on experience and policy success.

For Harris, Wednesday is a casting in which she is not merely advocating for Biden and his presidential qualities, but for herself and the possible scenario of becoming the first female and African-American president in American history. On the other hand, Pence will do his utmost best to defend Donald Trump and the status quo – also with at least one eye on the actual potential prize: the presidency.

L'articolo Talent vs. Status Quo: Why the Vice Presidential Debate Matters proviene da InsideOver.

Donald Trump loses one of his most important campaign tools with the announcement of his COVID infection: his public appearances. This is a disaster considering the president needed to throw the kitchen sink at his challenger Joe Biden over these next five weeks.

The Coming Weeks Could Decide the Election

The White House set out a roadmap for these last weeks before election day, including Trump rallies in key states such as Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The president was set to speak to his supporters and turn his campaign around. On Friday, the Trump team canceled these appearances. The impact could be severe. 

It did not come as a surprise, however. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) official stipulation is that anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 must be in quarantine for at least ten days, depending on the disease’s course.

Ten days may not sound significant. However, with 30 days until the election and the president trailing in all relevant polls, ten could end up being the deciding factor. More importantly, these ten days is the minimum, and depending on the president’s health status, even restrictions may or may not apply beyond.

How Sick is Trump?

According to the White House, Trump is showing mild symptoms, and the coming days will indicate how the infection progresses, according to the statement on Friday morning. However, by late Friday afternoon, it was announced that the president went to the Walter Reed Medical Center to stay there for “a few days”. The only certainty in this is that nobody currently knows what impact the virus will have on the president, which automatically puts significant question marks on his campaign. 

Friday’s events are a shock for the Trump campaign and may have sealed the president’s defeat. Not only can Trump not fuel his base personally but collecting campaign donations will now become more difficult. Moreover, further infections in Trump’s campaign have occurred, including campaign manager Bill Stepien and other GOP operatives as well as Trump staffers.

Various Theories About Trump’s Illness

The fact that the president is infected can moreover, be assessed differently in political and tactical terms. On the one hand, it’s about Trump’s credibility. His illness leads the president’s previous negligent attitude towards the coronavirus to absurdity. On the other hand, some already suspect the infection as a political scam, to use a possible, quickly overcome infection to downplay the virus again and praise his fitness ultimately. 

Others even go as far as suggesting that Trump could have just made up the infection as a political maneuver. A post by filmmaker Michael Moore, for example, pointed out Trump’s numerous proven lies and warned that Trump could use the infection – real or not – to postpone the election.

The latter, of course, is not only a preposterous claim by Moore but also inconceivable. The hurdles for postponing the election are incredibly high because the date has been set by law since 1845. A change would need congressional approval, which would arguably be challenged in court.

Most importantly, the House of Representatives is controlled by the Democrats who will have no interest in postponing Biden’s election since he is in the lead in the polls. Moreover, there would only be a few weeks to be gained in this way, because the rest of the schedule is laid down in the constitution and is therefore even more rigid.

Moreover, the disease is detrimental to Trump’s status quo as it will likely prevent him from conducting major political decisions shortly before the election. The latter concerns – inter alia – the delicate question of the appointment of the next Supreme Court Justice and Trump’s campaign against mail-in voting is likely also brought to a halt. Moreover, the two remaining presidential debates with Joe Biden – the next one scheduled on October 15 – will likely be canceled or altered in their format.

Trump Has No Reason to Fake an Illness

Thus, the benefit of staging an infection appears non-existent – unless the president has pretty much conceded defeat and attempt to establish an excuse – which appears rather far-fetched, even for today’s standards.

How severe the impact of the illness on the election campaign will depend on how the president recovers from the virus. Since there is no obligation to make the state of health of the president public, one ought not to expect detailed (read: necessarily truthful) daily updates. However, an unexplained prolonged absence of the president would inevitably lead to an even bigger political crisis close to the election. Moreover, any attempt to hide severe damage to Trump’s health, as was the case in 1919 after President Woodrow Wilson’s stroke, appears problematic to facilitate these days considering the leaking that has been omnipotent in Trump’s White House.

Can Trump Still Stage a Political Comeback?

On the bright side, if Trump’s illness remains mild, his campaign could somewhat be organized from quarantine. Tweet, stream speeches, interviews on Fox, all of which are possible. However, these are no substantial prerequisites for Trump, who needed to find a spark to transform a lackluster campaign into a winner through his presence and direct contact with his base.

Perhaps even more importantly, there does seem to be any political advantage to Trump’s infection. When Ronald Reagan got shot in 1981, the whole nation seemed to turn Republican and displayed its solidarity with the president. Reagan’s approval ratings rose to 73 percent. However, the degree of schadenfreude and outright repulsive hate communicated by many of the public since Friday does not indicate an increase in approval. A Reagan effect hence appears utterly inconceivable, and the chances for a second term are now declining with any day the president is not actively campaigning.  

L'articolo How His COVID Diagnosis Changes the Election for Trump proviene da InsideOver.

It’s still over a month before we know whether President Donald Trump will get reelected or whether challenger Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States. What is known, however, is that this election has the potential to push the country into a severe constitutional crisis, as the president has continuously questioned its validity.

The actual result could perhaps never precisely be determined, according to Trump. It is a message that aims at two particular goals.

Why is Trump Highlighting Doubts About Electoral Integrity?

Trump has repeatedly expressed doubts about the election results due to the new and unprecedented number of unsolicited ballots sent to voters this year. Due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, a massive increase in postal votes is expected in the elections on November 3. Mail-in voting is considered to be very safe and established — after all, it has been used since the times of the Civil War. Republicans, in particular, have had extremely positive experiences with the procedure. In the 2016 US election, almost one in four voters voted by post without any noteworthy irregularities.

Because of his repeated attacks, Trump has been accused of sowing doubts about the election’s legitimacy, which could lead to an unprecedented test of American democracy. In line with this, Trump has repeatedly left open when asked by journalists whether he would concede defeat — most recently in the first debate against Joe Biden on Tuesday, September 29. If he wasn’t to concede, anything is possible afterward. And what Bill Maher insinuated two years ago — namely that Trump would not leave the White House even if he were defeated — has become a conceivable scenario. This is despite all this taking place in a country in which constitutional checks and balances have long been regarded as a protection mechanism against authoritarian elements.

Trump is Likely to Lose the Election

A loss against Biden is quite likely and in all the relevant polls, the incumbent is trailing. Thus, Trump has been preparing the ground for a possible defeat not to be recognized by already questioning the legitimacy of the election results. Trump’s message to his supporters is clear: either he wins on November 3, or the election was rigged. It’s a similar strategy to what he utilized against Clinton in 2016 also.

The President likes to refer to momentum and the support his base provides. His supporters would go to the polling station, but his opponents might forego it, and only cast their vote for Biden if it can be done conveniently by letter. So Trump fears that it could be made too easy for Biden voters. He seeks to keep voter turnout as low as possible because he expects a low turnout to be advantageous to his potential victory. The Constitutional crisis he is conjuring up due to his rhetoric seems to be irrelevant, collateral damage in his quest for reelection from his perspective.

What Will Happen on Election Day?

If the result on election night is close, one can expect that the election outcome will be contested. The American electoral system has a two-step counting process. In a first step, the 50 states plus the District of Columbia capital district determine the presidential candidate who received the most votes. Then, in a second step, the electoral votes are distributed to the respective winner. According to the relevant law, all electors meet on December 14 to choose the formal winner of the presidential election in the Electoral College. Hence, Trump would have enough time to sabotage the process between election day on November 3 and the Electoral College meeting.

Ultimately, the Supreme Court could step in. In a dispute over the outcome of the election, it could take on the arbiter’s role if the conservative majority agrees. The last time this happened was in the 2000 presidential election year when George W. Bush ran against Al Gore.

In any case, Trump has already weakened confidence in the system to such an extent that he will present himself as the winner no matter what happens. Even if Joe Biden wins and moves into the White House, a large number of Trump voters will consider him illegitimate and believe the election was rigged.

The damage currently being caused will be difficult to repair no matter what the outcome is on election day.

L'articolo Why is Trump Continuing to Question the Election’s Validity? proviene da InsideOver.