North Korea’s recent military parade was attended by leader Kim Jong-un and was an opportunity for the regime to restore some pride back to a nation that has had a devastating summer as a result of a long monsoon season and economic damage wrought by the coronavirus.

However, the parade also provided observers with a frightening insight into the militaristic ambitions of its leader.

Dramatic Display of ‘Massive’ Long Range ICBMS

The parade was meant to mark the 75th anniversary of the Workers’ Party, but correspondents say that previously unseen “massive” long range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) were displayed. This is typical of North Korea’s regimes to use parades to show off new missiles and weaponry.

North Korea had not featured ballistic missiles in its parades since US President Donald Trump and his North Korean counterpart held their first summit in 2018.

Pyongyang’s Plans Military Buildup

Kim said during a speech to those who attended the parade that Pyongyang would continue to “strengthen its military for self-defense and deterrence.”

The recent military display was immediately condemned by US officials. One senior US government figure called on Pyongyang to commit itself to total denuclearization immediately.

Meanwhile, experts said that the new, larger ICBM is likely designed to carry multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs), allowing it to attack more targets and making interception more difficult.

Markus Garlauskas, a former US intelligence officer for North Korea, told the Daily Mail that the new ICBM is intended to dispel doubts about Pyongyang’s ability to strike the US, and that they are preparing to test the missile.

The US-North Korean Peace Process is Over

Either way, North Korea’s military parade is a clear sign that the US-North Korean peace process that Trump has been overseeing for the last two years is over. Victor Cha, who was the director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007, believes that Trump cannot hope to achieve a successful outcome in North Korea without the help of China. Yet a coordinated response between Washington and Beijing to end Pyongyang’s nuclear program seems out of the question for now.

Both Trump’s 18-month trade war with China and the coronavirus have caused US-Chinese relations to reach an all-time low, and over the weekend Beijing proved that it has no interest in persuading Kim to scale back his military ambitions. In a congratulatory message to the North Korean leader for the anniversary, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that he intended to ‘defend, consolidate and develop ties’ with North Korea.

At a time when the world seems to be turning against China, Beijing has few allies left and it is no wonder that they are keen to develop their relationship with North Korea.

Trump deserves a lot of credit for his extraordinary efforts to bring peace to the Korean peninsular. He has been accused of sucking up to dictators by his opponents, but he is the first US president to enter North Korea by taking 20 steps into the nation.

Ending Pyongyang’s Nuclear Program is No Longer a Realistic Goal

Also, Trump almost succeeded in securing an agreement with Kim during the Hanoi summit in February, but he failed to do so because the US president would not compromise on sanctions relief.

Despite this, Kim expressed his willingness over the weekend to foster peaceful relations with South Korea. Whoever wins the US election in November should prioritize ending the hostilities between Seoul and Pyongyang, as ending the latter’s nuclear program seems like an unrealistic prospect. One benefit of such a policy could be that it slowly steers North Korea away from Chinese influence.

The Trump administration is paralyzed at the moment and it cannot continue to develop its foreign policy toward North Korea until the outcome of the US election has been decided. Unless the next US president can defy all odds and commit Pyongyang to an agreement that cuts back its nuclear weapons, thwarting Kim’s military ambitions seems like a lost cause now. Fostering peaceful relations between Pyongyang and Seoul, however, could be achieved as long as Kim does not go back on his word, and many observers know he is renowned for that.

L'articolo Why North Korea’s ICBM Missiles Ruin Any Chance of Peace with US proviene da InsideOver.

With all the contradictory reports about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un bombarding the media right now and the lack of transparency from the country’s regime in general, it is difficult to ascertain the truth about the state of the dictator’s well-being.

Conflicting Reports about Kim Jong-un’s Health

According to The Sun, Kim is in a coma as North Korea prepares to hand power to his sister, Kim Yo-jong. Rumors about Kim’s health have been circulating since April, with some reports suggesting that he is in a “vegetative state” following a botched heart operation.

Although late South Korean President Kim Dae-jung consistently insisted that the rogue state is hiding the truth about their leader’s health, it has been confirmed by South Korea’s spy agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), that Kim has already gradually started to transfer authority to his 33-year-old sister, with the North Korean leader determining events in the background.

Kim’s Departure Won’t Change Anything

These rumors have been triggered by the North Korean leader’s lack of public appearances this year, though North Korea News reported last week that Kim presided over a plenary meeting of the country’s ruling Workers’ Party on August 19 where members discussed “an issue of crucial significance.”

Regardless of whether Kim is in good health or not, a leadership change is not the answer to North Korea’s growing problems. Even if Kim Yo-jong is starting to enjoy more responsibility while her brother supposedly remains in critical condition, her consolidation of power will represent business as usual for the country’s regime.

Kim Yo-jong Will Also Likely Fail to Get a Nuclear Deal with the US

Considering US President Donald Trump failed to make any progress with Kim in persuading North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, Kim Yo-jong would almost definitely be an even bigger obstacle for the US’s ambitions in the Korean peninsular.

In 2017, the dictator’s sister was made a member of the politburo, the Workers’ Party’s senior ruling committee, which provided her with greater power over state security.

However, Kim Yo-jong was then demoted in 2019 after she was held responsible for the failure of the Hanoi Summit, which saw Trump scrap denuclearization talks. If Kim’s sister was ineffective at reaching progress with the US as a member of the politburo, she would be even worse at this task if she became North Korea’s leader.

Kim Yo-jong’s Remarkable Comeback

Despite her past demotion, Kim Yo-jong has had a rapid return to favor after falling out of grace with her brother. Kim’s sister was elected to the Supreme People’s Assembly as a representative for Killimgil in 2019.

In April 2020, she was reinstated to the Workers’ Party’s politburo.

Since becoming a prominent figure in Pyongyang again, Yo-jong has taunted neighboring South Korea. In July, she made her first public statement, referring to Seoul as a “frightened dog barking” after the South Korean Government protested about the North’s live-fire military exercise. While her brother has made strides with the South, these actions prove that a North Korean regime led by Kim’s sister would reverse progress both sides of the Korean peninsular have made in recent years.

The US and South Korea Should Worry About Kim Yo-jong

Kim Yo-jong has a talent for transforming her political fortunes, but because she is an influential member of the Workers’ Party and Kim Jong-un’s sibling, there will be no pragmatic solutions to North Korea’s problems, which include food shortages, the economic impact of the coronavirus and flooding. There is no evidence to suggest that her beliefs are any different to her brother’s, which means that if Kim does have to resign, then Pyongyang will miss out on an opportunity to introduce any genuine changes.

As soon as the North Korean leader became ill, he was never likely to let his grip over his country’s regime loosen. This is why his sister is the best person to potentially succeed him as their ideological outlooks are practically the same. But the US and South Korea should worry about Kim Yo-jong becoming North Korea’s leader, as she could thwart all the progress Washington and Seoul have made to try and normalize relations with Pyongyang.

L'articolo Why Fresh Leadership in North Korea Won’t Change Anything proviene da InsideOver.

US Cities Within North Korean Striking Range

The report, which cited claims from anonymous nations, was penned by “an independent panel of experts” tasked with overseeing states sanctioned by the UN, as Reuters reported. If it is true that North Korea has developed nuclear weapons that can be launched within ballistic missiles, the dynamic of the US–North Korea relationship may be forever altered.

“The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is continuing its nuclear program, including the production of highly enriched uranium and construction of an experimental light water reactor. A Member State assessed that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is continuing production of nuclear weapons,” according to the report, which was forwarded to the UN Security Council North Korea sanctions committee.

The report has not yet been made public, though Reuters reviewed a copy of it.

Pyongyang’s miniaturized arsenal could put American cities within striking distance according to Newsweek. Combined with its armament of intercontinental ballistic missiles, North Korea “achieved a plausible enough ability—even if it was not perfectly reliable—to be able to hold the U.S. homeland at risk,” said Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at MIT and a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

‘This is Not a Theory, it’s Almost Certainly a Fact’

That development should not come as a shock, however, as experts monitoring the situation have long-suspected Pyongyang possesses the capabilities. 

“To be quite honest, I am shocked this is even news at this point,” said Harry Kazianis, the senior director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest.

“The only question now is how accurate would the delivery of a nuclear device be and how many hundreds of thousands of people—if not millions—would die in such an attack. This is not a theory, it’s almost certainly a fact,” Kazianis added.

Creating a Deterrence

The Kim dynasty has dreamed of nuclear weapons since the state’s founding, but Kim and his father, Kim Jong Il significantly quickened the development pace. The late leader’s ambitions resulted in UN sanctions in 2006, but that only increased the state’s push for nuclear armament. However, the last known nuclear test by Pyongyang was in September 2017, suggesting either that the state has abandoned its nuclear program or achieved its goal.

The UN report gives credence to the latter. In fact, although North Korea demolished tunnels at a nuclear test site in May 2018, the report states that one observer nation found the installation can be rebuilt within three months. The tunnel demolition was only for show—Pyongyang had no earnest intention to shutter its nuclear program.

In July, Kim declared his state had achieved its nuclear goal, NBC News reported.

“Thanks to our reliable and effective self-defense nuclear deterrence, the word war would no longer exist on this land, and the security and future of our state will be guaranteed forever,” Kim said. 

At the time, some observers may have misconstrued his words to be more of the same: propaganda with no real substance behind it, like when Kim promised the US a “Christmas gift” last year. The new UN report, however, means that Kim wasn’t bluffing when he celebrated the nuclear achievement.

A History of Relationship Failures

Given that North Korea now possesses miniaturized nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US mainland, Washington must change its approach to Pyongyang. Previous American administrations tried an array of strategies from preparing for war to pursuing normalization.

After Kim ascended to office, relations became more dicey as he shed notions of diplomacy in pursuit of nuclear weapons. American President Donald Trump brought a fresh approach to handling Kim by reaching out in an almost friend-like manner. The two exchanged correspondence, with Trump bragging about letters on several occasions. Trump and Kim thrice met in what had appeared to be hopeful negotiations. 

All of that was for not, however as talks broke down without a signed agreement. North Korean officials have since blamed the US for being unwilling to offer enough concessions to stop pursuing nuclear weapons. More recently, Pyongyang has said it refuses to hold further talks because Trump is only engaging in them for political theater, not to actually resolve the dispute between the two powers.

Since the June 2019 meeting between Trump, Kim, and South Korean President Moon Jae In at the DMZ, Washington has effectively turned a blind eye to North Korea. While the Trump administration has tackled crises and invited trouble with a handful of other states—Iran, China, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Russia, Turkey, and Germany, to name a few—North Korea hasn’t received the attention it once did. 

Time for America to Rethink Its NK Strategy

Washington must rededicate itself to pursuing diplomacy with Pyongyang, however, given the threat it now seems to pose.

“US strategy towards North Korea’s nuclear program needs to be radically re-imagined, as we operate today as if North Korea can’t build, won’t build or hasn’t built nuclear weapons—a type of nuclear denialism that quite frankly is dangerous,” Kazianis told Newsweek. He went on to suggest that since the US coexists with a nuclearized Russia, China, and Pakistan, North Korea should receive the same treatment. 

Ignorance of the situation, denial of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and bullying disguised as negotiating are all tactics that simply will not improve the US–North Korea relationship. Moreover, Washington’s treatment of Pyongyang will only further serve to reinforce its resolve that nuclear weapons are the only way to engender respect from America.

The problem, however, is that now that it has nuclear capabilities, if the US doesn’t honor that reality, North Korea could be compelled to make a show of force. Nuclear weapons for the Kim dynasty have always been about becoming equal to China, Russia, and the US. It wants a seat at that same table and has viewed nuclear armament as a means to that end.

The time to start listening to North Korea is now, before it’s too late. A renewed approach that respects Pyongyang rather than patronizes it could return diplomatic dividends.

L'articolo North Korea’s Miniaturized Nuclear Weapons Demand a New Approach from Washington proviene da InsideOver.

Kim Yo Jong is the younger sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Her father was Kim Jong Il, the country’s former Supreme Leader, while her grandfather was Kim Il Sung, the “eternal president” and founder of the nation.

Miss Kim’s face appeared on televisions around the world at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Below the 38th parallel, the woman met South Korean President Moon Jae In and was photographed together with American Vice President Mike Pence. On this occasion, Yo Jong took the place of her brother, who is believed to be the architect of the Hermit Kingdom’s communications strategy, both at home and abroad.

Over the years Kim’s sister has climbed up several positions within the North Korean political system, becoming a senior Central Committee official (March 2014), director of the Party’s Agitation and Propaganda Department (July 2015) and an alternate member of the Politburo (2017). According to rumors, Kim Yo Jong also holds an unspecified vice-ministerial position.

L'articolo Who is Kim Yo Jong? proviene da InsideOver.

Bringing peace to the Korean peninsula could have been one of US President Donald Trump’s crowning achievements during his first term in office. He has gone to extraordinary lengths to try and secure a peaceful outcome with North Korea and taken unprecedented steps that none of his predecessors would ever have dreamed of. For example, he symbolically entered North Korean soil to shake hands with the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

Peace is Still a Long Way Off

With a presidential election only months away, it is looking increasingly unlikely that Trump can brag to his electorate that he has become the first American leader to officially end the Korean War. Instead of clamping down on its nuclear program, CNN reports that there has been activity at an undeclared North Korean facility that researchers suspect is being used to build nuclear weapons.

The Korean Peace Process is at a Stalemate

The peace process has reached a stalemate for other reasons as well. The US is ready to continue stalled nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang, according to Stephen Biegun, Washington’s envoy to North Korea, who made the comments during a visit to South Korea. He is hoping to get talks started again before the US general election in November.

Meanwhile, Kim has been making far fewer public appearances than usual. On Wednesday, it was reported that he marked the anniversary of the death of his grandfather, North Korea’s founding leader Kim Il Sung, by visiting his mausoleum at Pyongyang’s Kumsusan Palace of the Sun. The North Korean leader has also recently refused to meet with his US counterpart again.

However, Trump’s attention throughout his entire presidency has been distracted by another authoritarian regime in Asia- China. The US President triggered an 18-month trade war with Chinese President Xi Jinping which ended with Phase 1 of a US-China trade deal in January. Nonetheless, the coronavirus triggered another dispute between both nations.

Trump Cannot Have it Both Ways

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hinted earlier this week that the US must adopt a different approach to Beijing which contrasts with the one previous administrations have taken to open up China’s economy to the world. Without revealing too much in advance what the American President wants to do with Beijing, the Secretary of State suggested that the Trump administration is considering banning Chinese social media apps like TikTok. This was then confirmed by Trump himself on Thursday as part of a series of measures his administration will be rolling out to punish China for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

The problem with the Trump administration’s twin-track approach of tackling China whilst attempting to end the Korean War is that the US President needs Chinese involvement in the Korean peace process to ensure the latter reaches a successful conclusion. Unless US-Chinese tensions can end peacefully, it will be difficult for the Trump administration to ask Beijing to help them in Korea in any meaningful way.

Trump Needs China On Side if He Wants North Korean Peace

Victor Cha, the former director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007, also believes that Trump needs China to restore peace in Korea. If China and the US could cooperate more on this issue, then the Trump administration could persuade Xi to end his country’s payments to Pyongyang until the latter has cut back on its nuclear program.

At some stage, Beijing should also be persuaded to clamp down on Chinese individuals doing business in North Korea. For example, the US successfully shamed four Chinese citizens who attempted to evade US sanctions in September 2016.

The simple truth is that Trump cannot have it both ways on China and North Korea. Pyongyang has no incentive to end its nuclear program while Washington continues to deploy sanctions against them. The peace process needs more stick now, and only China can provide it because Chinese payments to North Korea help preserve Kim’s regime. For now, the Korean peace process will continue to remain an unresolved problem that will haunt future US presidents.

L'articolo Why Trump Can’t Have Peace with North Korea while Also Tackling China proviene da InsideOver.

North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un has rarely been seen in public as of late. His most recent appearance reportedly occurred during a military meeting – during which the country’s nuclear deterrence strategy was in focus. At a meeting of the military commission in North Korea, Kim — who has been submerged in the media spotlight for several weeks — reportedly discussed putting the strategic armed forces on high alert.

Heightening of North Korea’s Military Readiness

North Korean state media reported on Sunday that Kim chaired an extended meeting of the Labor Party’s military commission that outlined a new policy for further expanding the country’s nuclear power and its deterrence.

The reports also stated that the meeting discussed the options of putting the strategic armed forces “on high alert” effective immediately. How and when the new policies are to be implemented was not reported. However, South Korean intelligence assumed the meeting took place on Saturday, May 23, as North Korea often only reports on important meetings or events a day later.

The internationally isolated leadership of North Korea reportedly held the meeting after analyses had shown “a series of deficits in the military and political activities of the general armed forces” in the country. Accordingly, the main agenda for North Korea was now to improve the capabilities to militarily deter the threatening foreign forces such as South Korea and the United States. Significant measures were reportedly taken during the meeting to increase the firepower of the people’s artillery effective immediately.

North Korea’s Current Status

North Korea remains subject to severe United Nations Security Council sanctions for its nuclear weapons program. In its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, which was destroyed two years ago, the country had carried out its six nuclear tests, the last and most significant so far in September 2017.

Negotiations with the United States about nuclear disarmament have led nowhere since the failed summit between Kim and President Trump in Singapore in 2018 and Vietnam in February 2019. Neither side could agree on an agreeable roadmap for Pyongyang’s nuclear disarmament.

Kim, who, according to South Korean intelligence, is 36-years-old, has rarely been seen in public in the past two months. His appearance at the inauguration of a fertilizer factory on May 1 had put an end to speculation abroad about his demise. After these reports had transpired, however, Kim disappeared from North Korea’s stage again. It is speculated that he will significantly limit his appearances and otherwise typical inspection trips through the country due to the coronavirus pandemic in the coming weeks and months. North Korea has so far, reportedly has had no confirmed infections.

Trump Considering First US Nuclear Test in Almost Three Decades

The reports about North Korea’s military meeting occurs after a Washington Post reported that the United States considered its first nuclear test since 1992 as a warning to Russia and China. According to the paper, President Trump’s administration discussed this possibility at a meeting on May 15, which quoted a senior government official and two former US officials.

Arms Control Association non-governmental leader Daryl Kimball told the Washington Post that such a decision would likely disrupt negotiations with Kim, “who may not be forced to adhere to his nuclear test moratorium.”

Korea was divided by the United States and the Soviet Union — similar to Germany after the Second World War — and a division followed soon after by the Korean War from 1950 to 1953. The war — which is technically still ongoing — cemented the status quo of North and South Korea to the present day. The United States has historically been an ally of South Korea, while China has been an ally of the authoritarian Communist North. According to international law, the state of war continues to exist as the 1953 ceasefire between the North and the South was never followed up with a signed peace treaty.

L'articolo North Korea Seeks Increased Nuclear Deterrence proviene da InsideOver.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made news this week by simply appearing at an event. There had been a great deal of discussion and rumors that he had died or was brain dead. But Kim visited a fertilizer plant with only a mysterious mark on his wrist. Given his family’s history of heart disease the mark was likely a right radial artery puncture, which is performed to get a blood sample for analysis for a cardiovascular procedure. His mysterious disappearance has reinserted North Korea and Trump’s negotiations back into the news once again.

Diplomacy With North Korea

Despite the breaking news of Kim’s reappearance, the fundamentals of North Korean foreign policy haven’t changed. President Donald Trump is focusing on the effects of coronavirus and reelection, which puts him and US policy in a holding pattern. This diplomacy involves several intractable problems with little immediate solutions. North Korea is armed with nuclear weapons, heavily fortified and is a hedgehog of artillery and other weapon systems within easy range of Seoul. All of which makes military options less effective and the risk for retaliation high.

Boosting South Korea

The US has decreased the threat by placing missile defense systems in South Korea. The US can further reduce the threat by removing American personnel from South Korea and informing South Korea government officials that they should prepare by moving their people into bomb shelters and safer locations. These latter factors are important to watch for, since they are good indications that a strike by the US is imminent.

But there is an avenue for progress tied to the relationship between Trump and Kim. The exchange of notes in the past summit didn’t lead to any breakthroughs, but seems to indicate greater trust and maybe even friendship between the two leaders. Before the first summit the Korean Peninsula was predicted by many analysts to be the next place for war. But now there is reasonable hope of a deal and an unlikely friendship between the two leaders despite the different stances they have on two key issues.

Taking Off Sanctions?

The first major issue included revolves around the removal of sanctions. North Korea argues they would have frozen the research at the Yongbyan site in exchange for a partial loosening of sanctions. The fact that North Korea is so keen on having sanctions lifted suggests they are meaningful despite failing to change the North Korean regime or stop their program, as will be discussed below.

The other key point besides sanctions was the gradual decommission of their nuclear program. North Korea has promised freezes in the program, particularly around the key Yongbyan nuclear reactor. But this didn’t satisfy the United States in the most recent negotiations. The deal under former President Bill Clinton, for example, shutdown that site, but it was rather inexpensive and relatively easy for them to reactivate it at a later time. This is probably why President Trump wasn’t ready to accept that concession as meaningful, or as reason enough to at least partially loosen the sanctions.

Can Great Leaders Shift History Despite Underlying Factors?

The high-level negotiations represent the great person view of history, but the underlying economics most closely resembles the larger factors involved. The great person view of history often focuses on the actions of key leaders such as Reagan and Gorbachev in the driving events. It is countered by a discussion of larger forces like economic trends.  We see the interplay between both of those models here because high level negotiations can lead to improvements, but the matters discussed are often the result of larger trends like long term sanctions.

While those sanctions haven’t yet incentivized Kim to shut down the program, they are still painful which is why they are ready to make concessions to have them partially lifted. The average citizen in North Korea is both poor and malnourished, some analysts say they are even starving, and even Chairmen Kim can’t live as luxuriously as he would like with sanctions on key goods.

Is Change Still Possible?

These sanctions act as an important tool to produce changes in the regime, or regime change itself. Their removal also acts as an important carrot. But their inability to produce change over the last 25 years has produced a need and opening for interpersonal diplomacy, or the great person model of foreign policy. If impersonal economic factors don’t affect Kim, and he seems indifferent to the suffering of his people, perhaps a friendship and meeting with Trump might produce change.

Many years from now and especially if Kim decides to change, then this event will be viewed as a “tear down this wall” moment. But even then, the long-term economic suffering of North Korea will leave Trump’s critics plenty of reasons to argue that Trump didn’t affect the US-North Korea equation.

In the end, Trump’s focus on politics and helping guide America through the virus allows those long-term forces to work in North Korea. That and the combination of high-level diplomacy such as Trump welcoming Kim back via Twitter represent the best hope for a North Korean breakthrough.

L'articolo North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un is Alive: is There Still a Chance for Peace? proviene da InsideOver.

With global coronavirus fears hitting fever pitch, news of another seismic threat ⁠— this one wholly man-made ⁠— received little attention last week. On Monday March 2, two short-range ballistic missiles arced high over the Korean Peninsula, flew 149 miles, then splashed down into the sea. 

North Korea is Still a Threat

A stark reminder of North Korea’s nuclear intentions, it was the pariah state’s first weapons test of 2020. And yet, just days later, noises from America were conciliatory. The United States is “ready and willing” to resume denuclearisation talks, State Department official Christopher Ford said on Thursday. Later that day, South Korea and leading European nations at the UN joined the call for renewed diplomacy.

For a full year now, the negotiating table has been empty. Three meetings between US President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un broke decades of deafening silence between the two nations. However, no meaningful breakthrough was achieved.   

Since then, the autocratic leader has adopted a characteristically aggressive stance, expanding his missile capability in response to “gangster-like” US pressure. Over the past nine months, the North has conducted an estimated 14 ballistics tests.

Coronavirus: the X Factor in North Korea Negotiations

But outwith the world of US and North Korea tensions, there have been developments that could have an impact; namely the coronavirus. The contagion’s onset led America and South Korea to cancel their yearly regional military drills, which invariably see retaliatory posturing by the North. Though Kim did fire a missile, it was a less provocative measure than he’s taken in the past ⁠— a response, perhaps, to the allies’ postponement of their exercises.    

The outbreak has also forced Korea’s warring neighbors to engage on a humanitarian level. In an unprecedented move, the North has permitted the entry of Red Cross personnel and resources to help fight the virus’s spread. Though a modest gesture, it’s an indication that dialogue is ongoing and, it seems, reaching common ground.     

For real progress to be made, however, many feel that Trump’s approach must be rethought. Washington has adopted a sharp economic edge in its dealing with Korea, refusing to lift a single financial sanction on the impoverished North, and demanding that the South cover the costs of hosting US troops on the peninsula. Critics worry that rather than expedite a solution to the fragile situation, Trump’s financial focus is simply allowing Kim time to expand his arsenal.   

Regardless, there seems little likelihood of a change in tact prior to November’s presidential election. Trump’s ‘America First’ mantra served him well in 2016, as did his promise to untangle the US from volatile foreign conflicts. Besides, American voters seem to be worrying less and less about North Korea: 13% of those polled recently said that the reclusive state presents the world’s “greatest threat”, down from 59% in 2017. 

Does Kim Jong-un Want War With America?

Indeed, most experts agree that Kim does not want a war with America. Facing off with the world’s predominant military power, he could never come out on top. But he feels his only way of winning concessions is by building a nuclear arsenal – one that could end thousands of American lives with a single strike. 

Despite the man’s totalitarian instincts, a compromise must be sought. Loosening the noose of economic sanctions could be the goodwill gesture that sparks real progress, experts believe. But with Russia and China advocating that approach, there seems to be no chance of Trump ⁠— famously recalcitrant as he is ⁠— falling into line.    

But again, the coronavirus might be the unforeseen factor that could elicit genuine change. Economically stunted, North Korea is dependent on Chinese trade for survival. Should the contagion sever that commercial link, Kim’s back would be well and truly against the wall. At that stage, a return to the negotiating table might be his best option.  

L'articolo Could the Coronavirus Help Restart Peace Talks with North Korea? proviene da InsideOver.