Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory shocked many. The billionaire had no political background and introduced an anti-immigration policy and other controversial issues during the campaign.

After four years in office, Trump has slammed numerous international agreements and taken bold steps by quitting the Iran nuclear deal signed in 2015 (JCPOA) and pulling out from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, a Cold War treaty meant to terminate the US and Russia (then the Soviet Union) short-range and medium-range missile stock. Trump pulled out after accusing Russia of violating the agreement.

Despite his controversies, numerous countries will be severely hit if Trump loses in this November’s election.

North Korea

Despite the failure to find peace at their three summits, ongoing sanctions, and North Korea’s missile testings, Pyongyang would prefer Trump to Biden, who has vowed not to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un unless the young leader offers a concession.

Biden is expected to adopt his former boss (then US President Barack Obama) policy called “strategic patience” by refusing to meet with the North Korean leader unless Kim has something to offer or the regime slowly collapses.

Arry Bainus, an international relations professor at Padjajaran University, Bandung, Indonesia, appreciated Trump’s courage to meet face to face with Jong-Un.

“Regardless of the summit’s results, at least Trump is willing to hold talks face to face with Jong-Un. They can express what’s on their minds,” Bainus told InsideOver two days before the final debate of U.S. presidential candidates.

Even though Jong-Un has tested missiles several times, Bainus claimed that the tension in the region was not that worrying thanks to the summit regardless of the outcome.

Trump and Jong-Un met three times (2018 in Singapore and 2019 in Vietnam and the demilitarized zone). Those summits faltered due to both countries’ different views on denuclearization.

The US wants a total ban on nuclear arsenals while North Korea wants a gradual economic embargo lift.

China

Trump accused China of conducting unfair trade practices. Then he imposed a stricter tariff on imported goods from China, triggering the trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.

However, China would benefit from Trump’s ongoing presidency, given the billionaire’s unilateral decision to quit several international agreements. Trump’s exit from international treaties and organizations paves the way for China to exert its global influence.

If Biden wins, Bainus said the tension might focus on China’s alleged repressive act on Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang Province and Tibet, as Democrats presidents often talk more about human rights issues.

Russia

Russia has been accused of being behind Trump’s unexpected win in 2016. Even though US-Russia ties have experienced some highs and lows (such as the demise of the INF), at least there is a positive side from the relationship under Trump.

Russia and the US have agreed on each other’s proposals to extend the New START treaty after Moscow expressed its willingness to freeze its warheads.

“I would expect the US to align more closely to the EU and be more hostile to Russia. This would be consistent with the nation’s stance toward the end of the Obama Administration,” said Marc Joffe, a senior policy analyst at reason.org, in an e-mail interview with InsideOver.

Russia has been hit by sanctions several times, from the annexation of Crimea (2014), the meddling in the U.S. election (2016), and the allegations that Moscow was behind the poisoning of a former Russian agent and his daughter (2018).

Saudi Arabia and Israel

Saudi Arabia and Israel will likely suffer if Trump loses the upcoming election as Biden will reactivate the JCPOA, the Iran deal signed under the Obama administration. This deal is strongly opposed by both Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

In addition, Biden may decide to focus on human rights issues such as the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi which shocked the world in October 2018. Turkey and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) reports claimed that Saudi’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was involved in the killing.

Foreign Policy Unlikely to be Biden’s Focus

If Biden wins, Joffe predicted that the 78-year-old politician will focus more on domestic issues as the US is dealing with the increase in the new numbers of coronavirus cases.

“Also I think there will not be much focus on foreign policy in 2021. The US is preoccupied with the coronavirus and the economic dislocations it has caused. Biden has an aggressive domestic agenda, which will take a lot of work to implement.”

“The situation is very different from 2009 when Democrats were elected, in part, because voters were unhappy with the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars,” Joffe explained. “Now that the US has fewer troops in these theaters and takes far fewer casualties, interest in foreign policy issues is much less.”

L'articolo Which Countries Will be Most Affected if Trump Loses Next Week’s Election? proviene da InsideOver.

The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — better known as the Iran nuclear deal— will rely heavily on the result of the US presidential election this November, according to a former Iranian nuclear negotiator.

Iran: Carefully Thinking Over Its Options Regarding the Deal

The Iranian official—who was also a former nuclear negotiator—said that Tehran is politically and technically ready to pull out from the treaty following the US withdrawal, as Reuters cited. However, the official argued that Tehran should be smart and not be trapped by Washington’s trap that will push Iran to leave the agreement.

The statement came amid US President Donald Trump’s threat to reactivate a snapback clause after the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) failed to pass Washington’s proposal to restore the arms embargo on Iran.

Trump and his Democratic contender Joe Biden — a former two-term vice president under Barack Obama — will run as the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election. Many wonder whether Biden will return to the JCPOA if elected given that then-Barack Obama administration signed the deal in 2015 when Biden was the vice president.

The JCPOA: a Brief Overview

In 2015, Iran, the US, the UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany signed a long-term nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.

Under the agreement, Iran was only allowed to possess 300 kilograms of uranium compared to 100,000. The deal restricted Iran’s uranium enrichment up to 3.67 percent and stipulated that it must be used only for energy, far from the more than 90 percent needed to produce a nuclear weapons arsenal.

Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allowed inspection from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange for the removal of economic sanctions.

However, Trump decided to abandon the deal unilaterally in 2018, slamming it for being ineffective in halting Iran’s nuclear ambition. Trump also criticized the JCPOA as the most embarrassing agreement in history.

In July 2019, Iran retaliated by deliberately enriching uranium above the limit stipulated in the agreement. In November 2019, NPR reported that Iran announced its plan to enrich uranium up to 5 percent.

The deal’s remaining signatories complained to Iran for not sticking to the agreement. However, those signatories still hope to save the agreement and opposed Washington’s unilateral withdrawal.

Biden’s Views on JCPOA

As the US election nears, many are hoping that the US will return to the JCPOA if Biden is elected. There is considerable belief that he may do so, given his experience as vice president under the Obama administration who helped to craft and sign the agreement in 2015.

“If Iran comes back into compliance with the deal, then yes, Joe Biden said we would do the same thing, but we would use that as a platform to try to build a stronger and longer deal working with our partners,” Biden’s foreign policy adviser Anthony Blanken told CBS News.

During his presidency, Obama called for a new chapter of the US-Iran relations. He uploaded the video on the Youtube account The Obama White House, which sent a warm message to Iranians.

However, if Biden is elected, he and his administration will face a tough challenge since US-Iran ties have reached a very low level under the Trump administration.

There are three main issues to be addressed should the Biden administration plan to restore the JCPOA; Iran’s undermining activities in the region, and the country’s continued strategy to produce its ballistic missiles, and the sunset clauses that remove restrictions on Iran’s nuclear enhancement program in 2025.

Joseph Rank, former acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy (2017-18), stated that offering some sanctions’ relief is the best way to persuade Tehran to return to the negotiating table.

JCPOA’s Signatories Should All Be Involved

Indonesian international affairs expert Yusran told Insideover that Germany, Russia, and China can play a role in pushing the US and Iran to return to the negotiating table due to their global influence.

“Germany is politically stable and has resources to be maximized. While Russia and China are among the world’s nuclear powerhouses,” Yusran said.

L'articolo The Future of the Iran Deal After the 2020 US Election proviene da InsideOver.