On a recent trip to Asia, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo campaigned for support for the Trump administration’s anti-China course.

Washington’s Increasing Anti-China Focus

Amid a simmering conflict with China, India is getting military support from Washington. During the recent visit by Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper to New Delhi on Tuesday, the two states signed an agreement designed to significantly boost India’s missile systems’ efficacy.

The agreement provides that the Indian army can access high-precision satellite data from the Americans in real-time. The government in New Delhi hopes this will give it an advantage in the border dispute with China, which has escalated several times this year.

Pompeo presented himself as a helpful partner: It was a matter of working with India to counter “the threats to security and freedom posed by the Chinese Communist Party,” he said at a meeting with his Indian counterpart.

Growing US-India Defense Cooperation

With China growing in the region, India and the US have been working together more closely on defense matters for several years.

China’s and India’s relationship is strained after a fatal incident on the Himalayas’ shared border in June. For Pompeo, India was the first stop on an Asia tour that also took him to Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Indonesia. The goal: to compete for allies in the geopolitical competition with China.

In Indonesia, Pompeo praised the country for its determined behavior in the battle for areas in the South China Sea claimed by China. Over the past few years, Indonesia has repeatedly driven Chinese fishing and patrol boats in the waters of the Natuna Archipelago out of its territory or destroyed the boats.

“All law-abiding nations reject the illegal claims of the Chinese Communist Party in the South China Sea,” said Pompeo after a meeting with his Indonesian counterpart Retno Marsudi in Jakarta. The US welcomed the example of Indonesia “to take decisive measures to preserve its maritime sovereignty around the Natuna Islands,” said Pompeo.

Beijing recognizes Indonesia’s sovereignty over the area but does not want to accept the exclusive economic zone – citing “traditional Chinese fishing grounds”. As early as 2016, however, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague decided that there was no legal basis for China’s alleged “historical rights” to the region’s resources.

China’s Claims Over the South China Sea

China claims practically the entire South China Sea for itself. Neighboring countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and the Philippines, reject Beijing’s claims. However, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno had already stressed in August that Indonesia did not want to be involved in the rivalries between Washington and Beijing.

Before Pompeo arrived in Indonesia, he had previously visited Sri Lanka and the Maldives. In the Maldives, Pompeo announced the United States would, for the first time, open an embassy in the Indian Ocean archipelago, yet another testimony of how serious Washington is taking increased Chinese influence and what Pompeo called “its lawless and threatening behavior” in the Indo-Pacific region.

Pompeo: China is a ‘Predator’

Just hours earlier in Sri Lanka, Pompeo had accusing China of being a “predator” in smaller countries by exploiting them with loans and development projects intended to benefit the Chinese more than the intended recipients.

On Thursday, Pompeo traveled to Vietnam.  Here his tour concludes on Friday. Vietnam also has numerous concerns about Chinese policies in the region, ranging from Beijing’s territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea to its development activities along the Mekong River.

Meanwhile, Beijing does not want to accept the efforts of the Americans defenselessly: like Washington, it is trying to bind the states of South and Southeast Asia closer to itself – with a charm offensive and generous offers, such as access to millions of doses of vaccine against the coronavirus.

L'articolo Pompeo’s Quest for Partners in Asia and Against China proviene da InsideOver.

US President Donald Trump recently told his aides that he is willing to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin ahead of the presidential election which takes place this November.

A trusted source revealed that one of the main topics discussed in the upcoming event is the expansion of the nuclear arms control treaty or New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty).

The meeting is expected to be held next month in New York.

Brief Overview of the New START Treaty

On July 31, 1991, the US and Russia (formerly known as the Soviet Union) signed an agreement that reduced nuclear arsenal possession that can harm human civilization. In the same year, the Soviet Union split and left only four independent states with nuclear weapons; Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

In 1993, then-US President George H.W Bush and then-Russian leader Boris Yeltsin signed the START-II, which slashed 3,000-3,500 warheads. After the treaty’s ratification by the U.S. Congress in 1996, then-President Bill Clinton and Yeltsin extended the treaty deadline until 2007, and start negotiation on the START-III for further reduction.

The New START is the only arms control treaty left after the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF). The US dumped the INF after accusing Russia of violating it.

Based on the New START—signed in 2010—the US and Russia agreed to halve the numbers of strategic nuclear missiles and limit the quantities of strategic nuclear warheads deployed to 1,550. The deal expires in February 2021.

Will Trump Target China?

The meeting between Trump and Putin seems to target China, given Trump wants to include Beijing in the extended New START.

China currently has world’s second highest defense spending according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The country spent $ 261 billion last year. The increase in China’s military expenditure represents around 5.1 percent growth, SIPRI estimated.

SIPRI recorded that Russia is the country with the highest numbers of nuclear warheads with 6,735—1,570 on standby position. The US came second with around 5,800 nuclear warheads with 1,750 on standby position.

China has 320, up 30 from 290 in 2019, followed by India with 150 (up from 130-140) and Pakistan (160), and Israel (90). However, Washington believes that Beijing possesses more warheads that the official record shows.

“Trump also has several considerations and calculations based on the intelligence analysis on China’s nuclear warhead. Even though the U.K. and France have warheads more than China, Trump believes the intelligence data revealed China possesses warheads more than the official figures. Therefore, Trump wants to involve China in the treaty,” Indonesian international affairs expert Yusran told Insideover.

China is planning to deploy its DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, which will carry three to six multiple reentry vehicles, as the Hill reported.

 Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said China would likely double its nuclear stockpile over the next decade. China is planning to produce 100 DF-41missiles, each equipped with six warheads.

China is Willing to Join the New START — With One Big Condition

 A senior Chinese diplomat expressed Beijing’s willingness to participate in a trilateral arms control treaty with Washington and Moscow.

However, China will join the treaty if the US is ready to reduce its nuclear weapons to China’s level, which seems unlikely for Washington.

“I can assure you, if the US says that they are ready to come down to the Chinese level, China would be happy to participate the next day. But actually, we know that’s not going to happen,” Fu Cong, head of the arms control department of Chinese foreign ministry, told journalists in July.

Will Russia Invite China to the New START?

Trump may hope that Russia will bring China to the negotiating table. Unfortunately, it is unlikely to happen as Russia and China share something in common; to contain Washington’s influence.

Despite competing to be one of the global superpowers, China and Russia will support each other from Washington’s hostility. Last June, Russia stated that it would not push China to join the trilateral arms control treaty as the numbers of China’s warheads are relatively small compared to those of the US, Russia, France, and the UK

Moscow will prioritize France and the U.K. as both are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and possess nuclear arsenals too.

“As an essential element of our position on the future of nuclear arms control, we insist that the United States’ closest NATO allies possessing nuclear weapons should join these hypothetical talks. They are France and the United Kingdom,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS News Agency.

L'articolo What to Expect in the Upcoming Trump-Putin Meeting Next Month proviene da InsideOver.

In the US–China relationship, the only certainty for the past few years has been tension and aggression. American President Donald Trump took office in 2017 and immediately set about upending the diplomatic and economic ties between them.

America’s Moves Against China

Since then, Washington has managed to turn the world against Chinese technology giants Huawei and ZTE and to threaten Chinese social media apps WeChat and TikTok.

In short, the US approach toward China has been entirely, relentlessly opposed to all things Beijing. What began as a trade war with tariffs slung as ammunition, has devolved into a mission to cripple Beijing at every opportunity.

As the US election draws nearer, China could be hoping for a respite under a possible Biden administration. However, the presumptive Democratic nominee is more likely to continue Washington’s assault on Beijing.

Changed Mindset?

Although it was only last year that presidential candidate Joe Biden said the Chinese are “not bad folks … they’re not competition for us,” Biden has since come around to a more opposition-minded approach to China, however, as Foreign Policy reported. In a Democratic primary debate, he called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug.”Furthermore, an advisor said the candidate would maintain US sanctions that were leveraged as a response to Beijing’s takeover of Hong Kong.

In truth, the recent clampdown on democracy by Xi has likely altered Biden’s approach to China. Whereas Biden was a member of the first American delegation to Beijing in 1979 after the relationship was normalized, the status quo has changed considerably in the decades that have followed. 

The Fate of US Tariffs on China Under a Biden Presidency

As Trump has already taken the fall for introducing tariffs, which have been a staple of Trump’s economic policies, Biden could walk into office in January and leave them in place, Don Lee suggested for the Los Angeles Times. In doing so, the new president could use them as leverage to bring Beijing to the bargaining table. 

Biden, as a career politician and former vice president, would sport a more diplomatic tone than Trump. The change would be a welcome one for Beijing, which has been subject to the president’s bullying on issues ranging from 5G networks to the coronavirus.

“Their stylistic differences are so great. It will certainly seem different,” said James Mann, a China expert and fellow at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “It will still be conflict-ridden, maybe at times confrontational, but certainly ridden with conflicts in ways that either weren’t there or were downplayed a decade ago.”

In the past, Biden has criticized Trump’s use of tariffs, complaining that they exacerbate the economic problem between the two states. However, even if he does roll them back — either in part or whole — Biden will certainly take China to task in other ways. 

One such way might be to renegotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Devised by former President Barack Obama, the policy would have brought together 12 nations within the Pacific. At the time, it failed to come to fruition because Democrats wouldn’t support it. However, times are different and both parties are unilaterally opposed to Beijing on nearly every issue: security, democracy, and human rights, to name a few.

‘A Special Challenge’

In an editorial for Foreign Affairs, Biden specifically mentioned China as one of the greatest threats to the US and identified ways he would handle it.

“China represents a special challenge. I have spent many hours with its leaders, and I understand what we are up against. China is playing the long game by extending its global reach, promoting its own political model, and investing in the technologies of the future,” Biden wrote.

“The United States does need to get tough with China,” Biden noted, further adding that “if China has its way, it will keep robbing the United States and American companies of their technology and intellectual property.”

The best way to do that would be to “build a united front of US allies and partners” to take on Beijing, according to Biden. A new TPP would be a solid start in that direction. Trump has actually laid the footwork for coordinating allies against China by courting Australia and the UK to its cause. Adding global pressure to Washington’s rage could stir China to reverse its ways in terms of human rights, but economically, it will take more.

Focus on Supply Chain

While the Trump administration has been concentrated on cutting China off from the US, a Biden presidency would be more focused on building a supply chain independent of China, the Brookings Institution concluded in an analysis. That remains the missing piece from Trump’s plan for China. While some manufacturers have left China for other Asian states, there has not been a concerted effort to bring companies to the US.

Biden has made rebuilding US supply chains for critical products such as pharmaceuticals and personal protective gear a platform issue, Axios reported. While the COVID-19 pandemic has certainly highlighted the urgency for self-reliance in terms of medical products, Biden’s policy could translate to a long-term effort of shifting away from China.

Although Biden will undoubtedly reintroduce a more tactful voice to the Oval Office, his presidency would still need to maintain pressure on China. However, Biden would likely find other ways of doing that instead of tariffs and executive orders. By establishing meaningful relationships with allies and implementing domestic policies geared at increasing production, a Biden presidency could tackle the China issue more effectively than Trump.

L'articolo What Would a Biden Presidency Mean for China? proviene da InsideOver.

The Trump administration recently dispatched Alex Azar to Taiwan in what became the most high profile visit in nearly 50 years. The US Secretary of Health and Human Services visited Taipei on the pretense of investigating the coronavirus pandemic.

Breaking with Tradition to Embrace Taiwan

Reading between the lines on Azar’s visit, however, it’s apparent that the secretary’s travel to Taiwan was about more than the island state’s handling of COVID-19.

The fact that Washington chose to send a top-tier official to Taiwan speaks volumes about how it views its current relationship with China, which claims the nation as its own. The US is actually one of the few states that refuses to recognize China’s ownership of Taiwan, even after it lost its place in the UN 50 years ago.

“China firmly opposes any official interactions between the US and Taiwan. This position is consistent and clear. China has made stern representations with the US side both in Beijing and in Washington,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said before the visit.

“I want to stress that the one-China principle is universally recognized by the international community. Any attempt to ignore, deny or challenge that principle is doomed to fail.”

The Direct Approach

While past American administrations have at times tip-toed around the issue, and none of them dared send high-level representation, President Donald Trump has taken a more firm approach with Beijing with fewer punches pulled. The result: Azar landed in Taipei, upsetting China, and stoked even more anger by criticizing Beijing’s response to the coronavirus.

Azar’s message for Taipei was one of unity, regardless of Beijing’s objections. That was the point: to prove to China that the US is unafraid of it. In a strong way, Azar’s visit to Taipei was more of taunt to Beijing than it was a courtesy for Taiwan.

A Mission to Preserve Democracy

“There are three overarching themes for this trip. The first is to recognize Taiwan as an open and democratic society, executing a highly successful and transparent COVID-19 response,” Azar said.

“The second is to reaffirm Taiwan as a long partner and friend of the United States, and to highlight our history of broad collaboration on health and public health. The third is to note that Taiwan deserves to be recognized as a global health leader with an excellent track record of contributing to international health.”

Taiwan’s Difficult Position

Azar’s first tenet was perhaps the most important. Beijing continues to encroach on island states in the Pacific Ocean. They are indisputably threatened by the Communist Party of China’s territorial ambitions and claims to International waters. 

Additionally, Beijing has shown no hesitation in suffocating democracy in Hong Kong. Naturally, Taiwan could be next and China has said as much, even going so far to threaten the use of force to reunite it with the mainland. 

Washington’s renewed relations with Taiwan comes amid a complete reshaping of US policy in the South China Sea. America is now highly keen to increase its support of state’s like Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines to deter further Chinese expansionist plans.

Virus Misgivings

Azar also seized the opportunity to attack Beijing over the coronavirus, which has become a popular tactic for the Trump administration.

“The Chinese Communist Party had the chance to warn the world and work with the world on battling the virus. But they chose not to, and the costs of that choice mount higher every day,” Azar said.

He added that if the virus had originated in the US or Taiwan, it would have been easily defeated. Although the virus has run rampant across America, the island state quickly took control of the situation when the virus reached it. While it boasts a population of 23 million people, only seven have died with a mere 480 cases. 

China Moves to Isolate Taiwan

Even still, China blocked Taiwan’s admission to the World Health Organization as an observer. The decision is one of several attempts to weaken the government of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Simply put, Beijing has sought to isolate Tsai wherever possible. As a result, America has an impetus for increasing its support of Taiwan.

“This behavior is in keeping with Beijing’s approach to WHO and other international organisations. The influence of the PRC (People’s Republic of China) far outweighs its investment in this public health institution – and it uses influence not to advance public health objectives, but its own narrow political interests,” Azar said.

Shoring Up Support for Taiwan

The Trump administration’s decision tp send Azar was about more than simply COVID-19. The virus pandemic simply gave Washington an excuse to shore up support for Taiwan at a critical juncture. After Hong Kong fell to Beijing, Taiwan could soon follow if it does not have proper assistance.

Unfortunately, most of the international community respects China’s claim over the island state, leaving few to help outside the US. Azar’s words, while harsh on Beijing’s coronavirus management, were more directed at maintaining a democratic Taiwan than its response to the virus.

L'articolo Azar’s Visit to Taiwan More About Democracy Than Coronavirus proviene da InsideOver.

Advisers to US President Donald Trump are pushing forward the idea of delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges unless they comply with American auditing procedures. Washington has been considering the measure since May when the Senate unanimously passed legislation with the same goal in mind.

Setting a Deadline for Non-Compliant Chinese Stocks

The Treasury Department and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the administration’s intention to proceed with  the idea on Thursday. Their coordinated efforts are the result of direction from Trump himself who instructed them to devise a list of possible options, as Reuters reported. Their announcement Thursday fulfilled a 60-day ultimatum the president set in June.

Crucially, officials have decided upon a Jan. 1, 2022 deadline for Chinese companies to come into compliance. Should the refuse to satisfy the conditions set forth by the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), which all US companies must abide by, these companies will be delisted according to plans laid out by the Treasury Department and SEC.

US: ‘We Are Simply Leveling the Playing Field’

Chinese companies that are filing for their first-time listings will have to immediately comply with US auditing regulations. Congress has sought ways to bring Chinese companies in-line with their US counterparts, particularly as economic and diplomatic relations between the US and China continue to sour.

“We are simply leveling the playing field, holding Chinese firms listed in the U.S. to the same standards as everyone else,” a Treasury official said on Thursday.

Little Fairness in China

Although the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said it has no rules barring China-based audit firms from working with the PCAOB, the US organisation feels differently. Despite a 2013 agreement between Washington and Beijing that was written to facilitate easier audit access, the PCAOB has often had their requests for information denied. 

China locking out the US regulatory agency is not new, nor is it a response to increased tensions. In fact, the PCAOB has struggled for years, but now Washington has taken notice and decided to act, as the Financial Times reported.

China: ‘What They are Doing is Political Manipulation’

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs argued delisting the nation’s companies is a political maneuver.

“Some US monitoring authorities are failing to comply with their obligations,” it responded. “What they are doing is political manipulation. They are trying to force Chinese companies to delist from the US market. It will harm US investors’ interests.”

The ministry offered no evidence of US favoritism, and while it argued the move will hurt American investors, the Trump administration is actually taking the step to protect its citizens. As more American, empowered by stimulus checks, began to invest in the stock market, Chinese stocks became popular. 

They haven’t all been on the up-and-up, however. Take, for instance, the case of Beijing-based Luckin Coffee. The company appeared on the Nasdaq exchange last year. This spring, the stock price rocketed skyward as the company reported stellar 2019 revenues. The problem? Most of its financial data was fabricated.

The company has since been delisted and booted several top executives including CEO and chairman Zhengyao Lu.

No Fault in Trump’s Decision

The Trump administration’s plan to hold Chinese companies accountable to US audit procedures was a long time coming. Beijing has managed to play by a different set of rules than US companies for too long, but evaded retaliatory action because Washington was too afraid of upsetting China.

Trump is not afraid, however. Democrats may hold many grudges against the president, but everyone, regardless of party, is in agreement that action is needed against China. Consequently, legislation passed the Senate unanimously and Trump will find widespread report for stricter auditing practices.

Furthermore, the move to delist non-compliant Chinese stocks cannot reasonably be construed as unfair. Unlike tariffs, sanctions, and other trade-related policies, requiring Chinese businesses to comply with the same accounting policies as US companies is in no way unreasonable.

Critics Don’t Understand the Move

In the worst case scenario, delisting Chinese companies only makes it more difficult for American investors, but not impossible. Yen Nee Lee argued that the move would be “pointless” in an article for CNBC, citing a report form the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 

But they miss the point. While they claim delisting will not hurt China or lockout American investors, those aren’t the goals of the administration’s move to delist non-compliant companies. The goal is simply fairness, that all companies no matter their origin are playing by the same set of rules, and protecting American investors from fraudulent businesses.

No Response Needed from Beijing

Ultimately, there are few options for Beijing to use as retaliation. The Communist Party of China already has the state in a stranglehold and nothing happens without its blessing. American companies listed in Hong Kong, for instance, will have already been subjected to enhanced scrutiny. 

It could impose more tariffs or even sanctions, but on what basis? If Washington had asked for something onerous an argument could be made that a response is needed. However, that is not the case here.

Establishing procedures within the SEC and bringing companies up to compliance will be a painstaking and long process that will consume the better part of next year. Unlike tariffs that can be leveraged immediately, the regulatory change is a slow-moving beast. 

In the end, legitimate Chinese companies will find a way to open their books to the PCAOB and comply. The ones that don’t can simply court US investors from the Hong Kong exchange. 

L'articolo Trump Moves Forward with Plan to Delist Non-Compliant Chinese Stocks proviene da InsideOver.

The closure of consulates the previous week will not have been the apogee in a series of clashes between Washington and Beijing. Instead, the last remaining hegemonic power and the aspiring superpower will keep the world busy with its ongoing showdown — while the European Union is destined to watch.

Beijing

Since the violent suppression of the democratic movement on Tiananmen Square in 1989 and the fall of the Soviet Union, the Communist Party of China (CPC) has waged an ideological war against enemy forces. Under the new head of party and state leader Xi Jinping, the conflict is intensifying. In a 2013 speech on “Defense and Development of Socialism” to members of the CPC Central Committee, he said that the Chinese system would ultimately triumph over capitalism. However, the party had to prepare for “long-term cooperation and debate between the two systems.” In the end, the CPC also tries to win the duel between the political systems in order to legitimize its authoritarian rule in China.

Of geostrategic importance are China’s claim to Taiwan — a democratic state that is not recognized by China and supported by the United States — as well as Beijing’s territorial aggression in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Here, China is attempting to extend its sovereign rights over the internationally determined airspaces and territorial waters.

It builds infrastructure on uninhabited or artificial islands in order to claim sovereign rights and natural resources in the South China Sea —  despite an international court ruling that puts China in violation of international law.

As a result, several dangerous military situations with warships and military jets from neighbouring countries as well as the United States and European countries have occurred during attempts to force China to respect international airspace and international trade waters. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a keynote speech to democracies in Europe and Asia asking to oppose China in a joint effort with the United States.

Washington

Compared to previous US governments, President Donald Trump has tightened the approach towards China – albeit not in regard to human rights and religious freedom. President Barack Obama acted more conciliatory and sought cooperation with Beijing in the global financial crisis. Trump, on the other hand, is using punitive tariffs to exert pressure on China to open its markets to Western products, just as China claims access to its goods in western economies. Trump’s constant attacks on China regarding COVID-19 — though justified — have further exacerbated the situation.

In addition to Trump’s combative course, the objective situation has also changed. Two decades ago, China had still been seen as a developing country, the kind of which does not question the technical and geostrategic dominance of the West — which is why one can react with caution if China does not adhere to the same standards in terms of trade rules, social regulations, environmental and climate requirements hold. Today China is technically and economically as strong as the USA or the EU. Unequal rules are considered a competitive disadvantage at the expense of America and Europe. Whoever believes that the conflict between China and the US will disappear once Joe Biden is in office, might be in for a rude awakening.

Brussels

The EU, meanwhile, is a bystander in this clash between the world’s two dominating forces. Its member states have such different interests that it is difficult to position them jointly on key issues. It would have been Germany’s task in its current EU presidency to find a common position for the EU-China summit initially planned for September. However, the summit has now been postponed due to the pandemic, and without a joint declaration, there will be no common European position – a further increase in tensions between Washington and Beijing notwithstanding.

The previous EU commission was cognizant of these aforementioned issues. In March 2019, it published a ten-point paper that aimed to counter China’s political and economic struggle for power in many fields. China is a partner, competitor and systemic rival, it says. However, national governments are often not guided by the EU decision, which emphasizes the importance of human rights and demands a level playing field. At the same time, China is influencing and dividing the EU. Investments from Beijing are very welcome in Italy, but also in other southern and eastern European countries. These investments make these governments mildly friendly when it comes to criticizing China.

The EU’s Lack of Unified Foreign Policy

When it comes to geopolitical interests, the EU does not fulfil the global political role that ought to be expected from an economic powerhouse. It simply is not capable. Accordingly, the idea that the EU could act as a global political pole between the United States and China is utterly preposterous, mainly as no real EU foreign policy even exists.

It also explains why Germany is not inclined to follow the US blindly. Berlin has emphasized that China remains an important partner in international politics, such as climate protection and the nuclear deal with Iran, and an important economic partner. The USA, on the other hand, is essential for Germany as a guarantee of security and shares common values, even if the friendship has suffered severely under the current administration.

With that being said, the conflict between China and the US will continue to exacerbate in the foreseeable future. And while the tone and decorum in the White House could significantly elevate from January 2021 onward if Biden is elected, American geopolitical interests will remain the same.

L'articolo US-China Relations Get Tenser, while Europe is Doomed to Watch proviene da InsideOver.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently called on “free nations” to triumph over the threat of what he calls “a new tyranny” from China. The speech was intended to be provocative and US-Chinese relations are set to deteriorate further.

Pompeo’s Provocative Timing

His remarks coincide with Washington and Beijing’s tit-for-tat over the closure of consulates in their respective countries. On Friday, the Chinese Government ordered the closure of the US consulate in the south-western city of Chengdu. They argued it was a “necessary response” to the US, which ordered the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas, on Tuesday, July 21, giving the embassy 72 hours to shut down all operations.

The Trump administration argued that its decision was provoked by unidentified individuals being filmed burning papers in bins in the building’s courtyard.

The Coronavirus Has Changed the West’s Relationship With China

The coronavirus has cast a light on the West’s relationship with China and the one nation that has been the most proactive in following the US’s lead is the UK. During his first foreign visit since lockdown restrictions across the world started to ease, Pompeo complimented the British Government for recent actions on China when he visited British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday. The US Secretary of State heaped praise on British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab for his government’s decision last week to ban equipment supplied by Chinese technology giant Huawei from the country’s high-speed wireless network.

Other decisions that the British Government has taken in recent months have also provoked anger from Beijing. China’s ambassador to London Liu Xiaoming, had lashed out at Britain on Monday night, accusing its government of meddling in Chinese internal affairs and violating international law in its opposition to China’s new security law that clamps down on Hong Kong’s freedoms. China’s behavior in Hong Kong triggered the British Government into offering the island’s 3 million inhabitants passports.

Pompeo faces many challenges elsewhere

Whilst the US can always depend on the UK as a close ally, Australia is also shifting its strategic approach toward China. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison launched the Defense Strategic Update and the Force Structure Plan in response to the deteriorating security environment along the Indo-Pacific region.

However, Pompeo’s greatest challenge lies in convincing the US’s European allies to support Washington’s stance toward China. The EU faces a dilemma over China as it intends to prioritize trade whilst defending the rights of Hong Kong’s citizens.

The European Council and China’s diplomatic mission to the EU announced that a bilateral trade agreement had been signed between the two mega markets. Considering relations between US President Donald Trump and the EU have soured over the last three years due to differences over trade tariffs, Brexit and quite recently over Trump’s decision to pull US troops out of Germany, his administration has had a difficult time persuading the EU to support his stance toward China.

This is NATO’s Opportunity to Play a More Proactive Role

Despite this, the EU is carving out its own defense policy because of the growing threat of China. In response to the Hong Kong security law, Brussels is preparing to restrict the sales of products that could be used for “internal repression.” This coordinated package is expected to be enacted before the end of July.

Although he has been critical toward NATO in the past, Trump needs this alliance more than ever to tackle Beijing and there are many ways he can deploy its effectiveness against China. For example, he could establish a NATO-China Council that would respond to China’s growing influence. The alliance should also deepen its engagement with its Pacific partners with more regular military exercises. NATO should also establish military headquarters in the Indo-Pacific region. But given that his relationship with so many of his NATO allies has deteriorated in recent years, Trump has a lot of rebuilding to do here.

The West is gradually waking up to the threat of China and Pompeo’s words have not completely fallen on deaf ears. But Washington still has a lot of work to do in building up a coherent strategy against China.

L'articolo Will Pompeo Succeed in Uniting the West Against China? proviene da InsideOver.

There seems to be no new week without an exacerbation in the increasing US-China conflict. The State Department confirmed on Wednesday that it had ordered the Chinese consulate in Houston to be closed. According to Chinese media reports, diplomats were only given three days to leave the United States.

China Reacts: ‘Outrageous and Unjustified Move’

A spokesman for the State Department in Beijing spoke of an “outrageous and unjustified move that will sabotage China-US relations.” Washington simultaneously called for the decision to “immediately withdraw”. Otherwise, one would respond with a “legitimate and necessary response.”

China and the United States have sanctioned diplomats in the past, but closing a consulate is a very unusual move. The developments had a negative impact on the US stock exchanges, particularly on the soybean trade — one of the essential US export products to China.

The US Department of State has yet to comment on whether a specific new occasion led to the decision to close the consulate. “President Trump insists on fairness in US-China relations,” said State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus.

US: ‘Trump Insists on Fairness and Reciprocity in US-China Relations’

Her full statement on Wednesday said: “The United States will not tolerate the PRC’s violations of our sovereignty and intimidation of our people, just as we have not tolerated the PRC’s unfair trade practices, theft of American jobs, and other egregious behavior. President Trump insists on fairness and reciprocity in US-China relations.”

However, there is a possibility that the closure might be related to Tuesday’s charges against two Chinese hackers. The US accuses hackers of attempting to sabotage US coronavirus research on behalf of the Chinese government. The charge is the first time the US has accused hackers of working on behalf of the Chinese government.

In addition, a link between the charges and the closure is also supported by the fact that Senator Marco Rubio, Acting Chairman of the Senate Secret Service Committee, wrote on Twitter on Wednesday that the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston is necessary because it is a central hub of the giant Beijing’s spy network.

Getting US Allies Onboard the Coalition Against China

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is currently in Europe, where he is promoting a harder course towards China. It is still unclear how Beijing will react to the recent escalation. It is possible to close US consulates in China, such as in the city of Wuhan.

The Chinese consulate in Houston is responsible for eight states in the southern United States, including Texas and Florida, and Puerto Rico. It is officially the first consulate to be founded in 1979 after the US and China established diplomatic relations. Previously, there was only one liaison office in Washington, DC.

The Significance of Ordering the Consulate Closed

The Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said the US government surprisingly requested Tuesday that the Chinese consulate general “shut down all operations and events.” The move violates international standards and the consular agreements between China and the United States.

The United States spokesman said the United States has been harassing China’s diplomatic and consular personnel for some time. The unilateral closure of a consulate in such a short time was an “unprecedented escalation of the latest action against China.”

The United States spokesman said the United States had twice imposed restrictions on US diplomatic personnel last October and June. For his part, he accused American diplomats in China of “interfering” in China and “infiltrating” Chinese society. There are also more personnel in the US diplomatic missions in China than vice versa.

China’s new security law for Hong Kong, which has been criticized internationally for restricting freedoms in the Special Administrative Region, has recently fueled tensions. The USA has, therefore imposed sanctions on China. In addition, both sides remain on a collision course – inter alia – over trade disputes, China’s handling of the Muslim Uyghur minority, US espionage speculations against the Chinese 5G network builder Huawei and Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea.

L'articolo US Orders China to Close its Consulate in Houston proviene da InsideOver.

Bringing peace to the Korean peninsula could have been one of US President Donald Trump’s crowning achievements during his first term in office. He has gone to extraordinary lengths to try and secure a peaceful outcome with North Korea and taken unprecedented steps that none of his predecessors would ever have dreamed of. For example, he symbolically entered North Korean soil to shake hands with the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

Peace is Still a Long Way Off

With a presidential election only months away, it is looking increasingly unlikely that Trump can brag to his electorate that he has become the first American leader to officially end the Korean War. Instead of clamping down on its nuclear program, CNN reports that there has been activity at an undeclared North Korean facility that researchers suspect is being used to build nuclear weapons.

The Korean Peace Process is at a Stalemate

The peace process has reached a stalemate for other reasons as well. The US is ready to continue stalled nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang, according to Stephen Biegun, Washington’s envoy to North Korea, who made the comments during a visit to South Korea. He is hoping to get talks started again before the US general election in November.

Meanwhile, Kim has been making far fewer public appearances than usual. On Wednesday, it was reported that he marked the anniversary of the death of his grandfather, North Korea’s founding leader Kim Il Sung, by visiting his mausoleum at Pyongyang’s Kumsusan Palace of the Sun. The North Korean leader has also recently refused to meet with his US counterpart again.

However, Trump’s attention throughout his entire presidency has been distracted by another authoritarian regime in Asia- China. The US President triggered an 18-month trade war with Chinese President Xi Jinping which ended with Phase 1 of a US-China trade deal in January. Nonetheless, the coronavirus triggered another dispute between both nations.

Trump Cannot Have it Both Ways

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hinted earlier this week that the US must adopt a different approach to Beijing which contrasts with the one previous administrations have taken to open up China’s economy to the world. Without revealing too much in advance what the American President wants to do with Beijing, the Secretary of State suggested that the Trump administration is considering banning Chinese social media apps like TikTok. This was then confirmed by Trump himself on Thursday as part of a series of measures his administration will be rolling out to punish China for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

The problem with the Trump administration’s twin-track approach of tackling China whilst attempting to end the Korean War is that the US President needs Chinese involvement in the Korean peace process to ensure the latter reaches a successful conclusion. Unless US-Chinese tensions can end peacefully, it will be difficult for the Trump administration to ask Beijing to help them in Korea in any meaningful way.

Trump Needs China On Side if He Wants North Korean Peace

Victor Cha, the former director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007, also believes that Trump needs China to restore peace in Korea. If China and the US could cooperate more on this issue, then the Trump administration could persuade Xi to end his country’s payments to Pyongyang until the latter has cut back on its nuclear program.

At some stage, Beijing should also be persuaded to clamp down on Chinese individuals doing business in North Korea. For example, the US successfully shamed four Chinese citizens who attempted to evade US sanctions in September 2016.

The simple truth is that Trump cannot have it both ways on China and North Korea. Pyongyang has no incentive to end its nuclear program while Washington continues to deploy sanctions against them. The peace process needs more stick now, and only China can provide it because Chinese payments to North Korea help preserve Kim’s regime. For now, the Korean peace process will continue to remain an unresolved problem that will haunt future US presidents.

L'articolo Why Trump Can’t Have Peace with North Korea while Also Tackling China proviene da InsideOver.

There was much confusion emerging from the White House over the US-China trade deal on Monday. Before the coronavirus pandemic worsened relations between both nations, US President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed Phase One of a US-China trade agreement that slashed some US tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Chinese commitments to purchase more of American farm, energy and manufactured goods.

However, COVID-19 shifted the US’s attention away from establishing a free trade agreement with China. The US President’s rhetoric toward Beijing subsequently worsened. In April, Trump claimed to have evidence that the coronavirus started in a Chinese lab, but he offered no details. Later on in the month, he also stated that China “will do anything” to stop his re-election as the row between the US President and Chinese President Xi Jinping worsened.

Trump’s China Stance Thrown Into Confusion

But as Trump’s priorities started to shift toward liberalizing trade between America and China, which was one of his central campaign pledges, trade advisor Peter Navarro did not help matters when he declared that a trade deal between both countries was over this past Monday. Navarro told Fox News that the turning point came when the Trump administration learned about COVID-19’s existence after a Chinese delegation left Washington following the signing of Phase One of the deal on January 15.

The comments caused US equity futures to drop on Monday night, but they soon rebounded on Tuesday as major future indexes indicated a gain of 0.9 percent, coming back from being down 400 points on the Dow. Asian markets like Japan’s Nikkei responded with gains as well, adding 0.5 percent on Tuesday.

Navarro’s Fox News interview also provoked a reaction from the US President himself, who tweeted later on Monday evening that the trade deal is still in place.

Phase One of the Trade Deal is Still Intact

The special advisor provided CNN with a statement that his comments “had nothing to do with Phase One of the deal,” and said that they were targeted at the lack of trust Washington has in the Chinese Communist Party for hiding the true extent of the coronavirus’s impact.

A trade pact between the US and China will improve trade between both countries in the long-term to a certain extent. It halves tariff rates on $120 billion worth of goods, but most of the steeper duties — which affect $360 billion of Chinese goods and more than $100 billion worth of US exports — remain intact. This trade agreement is only the first step toward improving trade relations between both sides and foreign relations in general. But it will be difficult to achieve the former unless the latter improves substantially, and there are still many factors hindering that outcome.

Not only has the coronavirus caused a rift between Beijing and Washington, but the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour refers to a “new cold war” between both sides. As China asserts itself in Hong Kong and on the border with India, the US realizes that it has a new menace to deal with. Trump is already inviting nations to join its anti-China alliance, but as Mira Rapp-Hooper wrote in her book Shields of the Republic, the US President has insulted so many of his country’s allies that he will find it difficult to rally them behind a new alliance to tackle China.

Trump Needs to United US Allies Against China

After 9/11, George W. Bush rallied NATO behind him to tackle the threat of terrorism before the 2003 Iraq War caused him to drift apart from certain nations. The US now needs a leader who can do the same with China, and it needs a strategy on how it is going to tackle the rising threat of Beijing.

The coronavirus has caused many Western nations to rethink their relationship with China, but should Trump win a second election, he needs to repair relations with his European allies and persuade them to support his new bid to thwart China’s rise to power. This is the opportune moment for him to do so.

If US-Chinese relations in general continue to deteriorate, it will be hard to see how both sides can cooperate on trade. Trump may have downplayed Navarro’s comments for now, but that does not mean the US-China trade pact won’t end at a later date.

L'articolo Why US-Chinese Relations Depend on More Than a Trade Deal proviene da InsideOver.