President Donald Trump recently indicated he wants a withdrawal of the remaining US soldiers in Afghanistan by Christmas. “We should have the small remaining number of our brave men and women serving in Afghanistan at home by Christmas!” the president tweeted on Wednesday, without any additional details. The Taliban welcomed the president’s announcement as an “important step.” 

Accelerating the Planned Troop Withdrawal

Facilitating the president’s ambitious plan would significantly accelerate the withdrawal agreement of troops between the US and the Taliban. In the past few years, Trump has repeatedly stated his proclivity to cease America’s “endless wars” and bring home the troops. The president’s statement on Wednesday surprised even US officials, however. At the beginning of August this year, the US Department of Defense announced a reduction of US soldiers in Afghanistan from the current 8,600 to 5,000 by November. 

Based on the agreement signed with the radical Islamic Taliban on February 29, the United States will gradually withdraws its armed forces from the Hindu Kush until mid-2021. In return, the Taliban have agreed to conduct peace negotiations with the government in Kabul. The negotiations started on September 12 in Qatar. However, the talks lack progress, and the Taliban are continuing their attacks, which have repeatedly killed Afghan security forces and civilians.

What Does Washington Want?

Washington also demanded a guarantee that Afghanistan would not become a sanctuary for terrorists from all over the world, similar to the Taliban’s previous reign. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, yielded the invasion of the US armed forces in Afghanistan as part of the Global War on Terror. The United States and its allies defeated the Taliban, who gave shelter to the terrorist network Al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden and liberated large areas of the nation from the extremists.

After 19 years of US troop presence in Afghanistan, Trump’s plan of withdrawal is now a bipartisan consensus including on the part of his challenger Joe Biden.  

The president ran on the promise to bring home the troops first in his campaign against Hillary Clinton. His current campaign also emphasizes withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq. However, Trump failed to deliver his campaign promise, particularly in the case of Afghanistan and the announcement on Wednesday, and indeed the confusion it caused, points to this being a reckless campaign maneuver without any actual plans for facilitation. 

Fluctuating US Troop Levels in Afghanistan

When President Barack Obama left office in January 2017, around 8,400 US soldiers remained in Afghanistan. In his early years in office, Obama dramatically increased the US presence, from just over 30,000 to more than 100,000 at its peak in 2011. Contrary to President Trump’s election rhetoric, his administration increased the troops compared to Obama’s 8,400. It needed the February agreement with the Taliban that the US military reduced its number in Afghanistan from 12,000 to now around 8,600. 

The president’s remarks appear particularly ill-advised given the occurrences the past weekend. Two bomb attacks killed at least 18 people in Afghanistan. Authorities announced that 13 people – including three civilians – were killed in northern Sar-e Pul province on Saturday when an explosive device exploded next to a passing vehicle. Three soldiers were also wounded. An hour-long firefight with the Taliban preceded the casualties.

Moreover, an explosive device recently went off in the southern Helmand province roadside when a bus drove by. According to the Afghan government, at least five people died. The government blamed the Taliban for the attack.

The situation in Afghanistan remains highly volatile, and the peace talks continue to stall. The US President’s comments, purely for election purposes, cannot be helpful. The fact that the Taliban expressed support for the president’s ideas is a warning sign and one ought to be extremely cautious about this kind of development, particularly in the White House.

Moreover, the Afghanistan engagement is not a partisan issue in the US. The upside of the president’s pernicious remarks is thus infinitesimal at best. The downside is that this statement results in even less leverage for Qatar’s intra-Afghan negotiation: considering the Afghan government is dealing with extremists it is sufficiently complex already without the president’s self-serving and reckless tweets. 

L'articolo Trump Suggests Early Troop Removal from Afghanistan proviene da InsideOver.

US president Donald Trump is likely to announce a massive drawdown in the number of troops stationed in Afghanistan “with or without” a deal with the Taliban. US Secretary of Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the withdrawal is almost certain last month, arguing that the Afghan security forces are becoming more and more capable in dealing with the country’s unstable security situation.

US Senator Lindsey Graham said he would support Trump’s decision to reduce the number of troops by around 3,500 to 8,600 from the existing 12,000. Speaking in Kabul last month, Graham said the withdrawal will not negatively affect the security situation in the country. He also guaranteed that “Afghanistan would not become a launching pad for another attack against the US homeland.”

US In Afghanistan: 2001 to 2010

From the initial campaign against the Taliban following the 9/11 attacks in Afghanistan that brought around 1,300 troops in to Afghanistan in November, 2001, the number of US troops in the next twelve months increased to around 10,000. By April, 2004, this number had swelled to more than 20,000.

However, American attention shifted with the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the number of US troops in Afghanistan remained unchanged after 2004 for a few years at around 20,000. As US attention focused on Baghdad, the Taliban began to attack allied bases in Afghanistan. By 2008, the number of US fatalities had increased to 153. The number peaked in 2010 at 496.

The rise in death of US servicemen led to a sharp increase in the number of US boots on ground. By May, 2009 the number increased to 50,000. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda continued to attack US positions in the country. By December, 2009, President Obama ordered another 33,000 troops in the country to counter the resurgent Taliban, and by 2010, the number of US troops in Afghanistan had risen to 100,000.

US In Afghanistan: 2010 to 2019

As the decade turned, the renewed US military presence in Afghanistan coupled with the help of precise drone strikes on terror camps contained and limited the Taliban’s abilities. Subsequently, US causalities began to fall. However as success increased, the US military and civil administration began to grow restless and sought ways to end the war. With the decrease in number of causalities, and the success of drone strikes, President Barack Obama’s administration began to decrease the number of troops in the country and withdraw.

By 2013, as US casualties in the war declined to 120 from its peak of 496 in 2010, the US withdrew around 54,000 personnel from the country. Then, in May, 2014, Obama announced his plans to pull virtually all of the US troops from the country by 2016. By October of 2015, the number of US troops in the country had fell to 9,800.

Trump’s Afghanistan Flip-Flop

With the arrival of new American President Donald Trump, however, the US began to backtrack on its plans to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan. Trump, warning against a “hasty withdrawal”, said the conditions on the ground—not arbitrary timetables—will guide US strategy from now on. Trump, going against the Obama era plans, decided to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan. By September, 2019, he increased the number to 12,000. Now Trump wants once again to withdraw large amounts of US troops.

Implications Of The US Drawdown In Afghanistan

Trump’s decision to decrease troops from Afghanistan at a time when the US and Taliban are discussing a peace deal is likely to work in favor of the insurgent group. The Taliban is eager to regain its lost political relevance in Afghanistan. With American withdrawal, the Taliban will become more brazen in pressing its authority and brutality in Kabul. It has also shown no commitment to a ceasefire and continues to blatantly attack US personnel and airfields. Only last month a Taliban suicide bomber detonated an explosive-ridden truck in front of the key US base at Bagram Airfield, killing two civilians and injuring around 73 others.

Road To Afghan Peace?

The negotiations for developing a peace agreement have gone back and forth between the Taliban and the US over the last year, but the insurgent group’s failure to cease attacks have sabotaged all attempts to finalize a deal. In September of last year, Trump in a bizarre turn of events was poised to invite the Taliban to a leadership at Camp David to shake hands on the “Peace Deal.” However, the meeting was called off after an attack by the Taliban killed a US soldier and 11 other people.

The Taliban’s brash attacks despite the presence of US troops in the country begs the question as to what will the future look like once Trump decides to completely withdraw US forces from the country.

L'articolo Taliban Stand To Gain From Withdrawal Of US Troops proviene da InsideOver.