Questions are being raised again over the effectiveness of sanctions against North Korea after a recent United Nations (UN) report revealed that North Korea has successfully built miniature nuclear weapons. The UN document also states that the North Korean regime has achieved a key breakthrough in its nuclear program by creating a nuclear warhead small enough to be carried on a nuclear missile.

The Recent Revelations

The UN said on Monday that Pyongyang is violating international sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear program by exceeding a cap on petroleum imports and sending its workers overseas, including a former Juventus footballer.

Furthermore, the UN Security Council said an annual 500,000 barrel cap on imports of refined petroleum products had been broken in the first five months of 2020 alone.

Considering US President Donald Trump has committed himself to bringing peace to the Korean peninsula, the world would normally look to his country for a reaction to a report like the one the UN has produced recently. Regardless, his administration is powerless until the winner of the November election has been declared.

Sanctions Against North Korea are Failing

Nonetheless, this news, alongside a series of revelations in the last month that have exposed how North Korea is evading US sanctions, calls into question the US’s approach toward North Korea. Earlier this month, NBC News obtained a trove of confidential bank documents which revealed how North Korea moves illicit cash across borders despite international sanctions to block Pyongyang’s access to the global financial system.

The suspected laundering by North Korea-linked organizations totaled more than $174.8 million over several years, with transactions approved by American banks like JPMorgan Chase and the Bank of New York Mellon.

Yet that does not mean sanctions have had no effect on Kim Jong-un’s regime.

North Korea’s UN Ambassador Kim Song told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that despite his country’s “reliable and effective war deterrent for self-defense,” international sanctions were a hindrance to the North Korean leader’s plans to accelerate his nation’s economy. This could be interpreted by the Trump administration as an admission that sanctions are damaging North Korea’s economy.

Nonetheless, regardless of who wins the US election in November, peace seems unlikely for many reasons.

Cooperation with China is Out of the Question

Firstly, the West needs Beijing’s help to tackle North Korea, but a coordinated response with China is out of the question for now. Even if Joe Biden wins the US election, he will be forced to adopt a tough stance toward Beijing because of the coronavirus originating from there. Yet China provides North Korea’s economy with a critical lifeline, so assuming the current tension between Beijing and Washington does not escalate into a cold war, cooperation between the two powers may be necessary at some stage.

Kim is aware that the number of sanctions against his regime will increase if there are no cuts to Pyongyang’s nuclear program, yet that has not stopped him from supposedly developing miniature nuclear weapons. It is clear he cannot be trusted to commit himself to peace, which means negotiations are a waste of time.

North Korea’s Regime Must Go

The only way peace can become a reality would be if North Korea’s regime collapsed, and this looks like a strong possibility. A long monsoon season damaged 96,300 acres of farmland and 16,680 homes, including roads and rail lines. Also, food shortages caused Kim to respond by ordering pet dogs to be confiscated for food.

This is a regime in trouble and if it refuses to accept outside help, its end is inevitable.

The more North Korea defies international sanctions, the less likely its leader is to commit to a reduction in its nuclear program. No matter who occupies the White House from January onward, they will probably struggle to ensure Kim commits to ending his nuclear program. To give peace a chance, the current regime in Pyongyang must go, and it must go as soon as possible.

L'articolo Does North Korea’s Mini-Ballistic Missile Program Make Peace Unlikely? proviene da InsideOver.

September 21, 2020 marked the 75^th anniversary of the United Nations Organization, with leaders from all over the world taking the opportunity to celebrate the occasion mainly through recorded messages, as the COVID-19 pandemic is still raging worldwide.

The Signing of the UN Charter in 1945

The signing of the UN Charter in San Francisco in 1945 saw the world coming out of the Second World War with great resolve for a fresh start. A series of significant developments have occurred during these 75 years, with the United Nations having contributed to the end of colonialism, the universal declaration of human rights, mediation and peacekeeping missions in conflict areas across the globe, aid programs for developing countries and more recently the fight against climate change. The UN also managed to prevent a direct superpower conflict between the United States and the USSR during the Cold War despite the arms race and numerous regional conflicts.

The UN’s Many Accomplishments

Another major UN accomplishment was the adoption of the Millennium Development Goals in 2000, which were succeeded by the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015. The latter cover a wide range of issues, such as poverty, health, education, climate change, energy, livable cities, natural ecosystems, good governance, and partnerships. Seventeen in total, they constitute a roadmap for any nation wishing to safeguard its prosperity in the long term.

The year 2015 also marked by the adoption of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, aiming to “combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions needed for a sustainable low carbon future.”

The UN’S Serious Challenges

Despite the aforementioned key moments and undeniable breakthroughs, the UN has been facing some serious challenges, especially since the rise to power of US President Donald Trump and other like-minded world leaders who question their countries’ international commitments and pursue more unilateral economic, trade and security policies. The European Union is now the strongest proponent of multilateralism and diplomacy, however its endemic disunity prevents it from articulating a coherent voice on the global stage.

The UN’s 75^th anniversary finds the organization at a critical point. The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated in the most flagrant manner how interconnected and interdependent our world has become. It has also shown how vital cooperation and concerted action proves to be when dealing with border crossing phenomena, while exposing at the same time preexisting inefficiencies and leadership gaps.

Looking Forward

The ability to intervene effectively in terms of peace, security, sustainable development and human rights issues will determine the UN’s chances to survive in a constantly changing and perplexing world. Possible inability to do so could mean global anarchy, the prevalence of power over international law, the dismissal of international treaties and agreements, uncontrollable conflicts and even full-scale warfare.

Seventy-five years of peace should not be taken for granted. As challenges and expectations continue to change, the same should be expected from the United Nations and the multilateral, rules-based system as a whole.

Past accomplishments do not guarantee a successful future and a quick revisiting of history books is enough to remind us of how quick humanity is to nurture its self-destructive instincts.

L'articolo UN Celebrates 75th Anniversary In Search of New Identity proviene da InsideOver.

The United Nation’s General Assembly has produced its fair share of unique moments during its existence and the opening of the 2020 session did not disappoint. The omnipresent dispute between China and the US culminated in President Trump’s calling for the UN to hold China accountable for COVID-19.

Trump: China Must be ‘Held Accountable’ for Unleashing a ‘Plague’ on the World

The president reiterated his allegations against China for the global spread of the coronavirus. China needed to be “held accountable” for unleashing the “plague” on the world, and for not having stopped it, Trump said in his video message.

Trump also accused China and the World Health Organization of having incorrectly informed about the nature of the coronavirus’s spread. Both had initially stated that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission of the virus. Furthermore, later mistakenly stated that individuals without symptoms would not spread the disease.

WHO ‘Practically Controlled by China’

The intense tone against the WHO did not end there, however. The president also accused the WHO of being  “practically controlled by China” and urged the United Nations to hold China accountable for its actions.

While the latter fits into the anti-China rhetoric the White House has implemented into its reelection campaign, it will remain without any UN repercussions. With China being one of the permanent Security Council members, it would veto any potentially binding resolution against Beijing.

The president’s words are nonetheless the most recent example of the significant deterioration in relations between Beijing in Washington over the previous months, partly due to the coronavirus.

US-China Relations at a Record Low

The conflict now affects almost every aspect of the relationship between the two. After punitive tariffs, Washington has begun to impose tough political sanctions. Recently, the dispute over the popular Chinese app Tiktok caused a stir.

It was hence fitting that at the start of the general debate on Tuesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of a “cold war” between the US and China. Both sides were moving into a “perilous direction”. The world cannot afford a future in which the two largest economies “split the globe” and cause an economic divide that had the potential to transform into a military one, Guterres said.

Trump went on to say that 75 years after the end of World War II and the founding of the United Nations, a major global struggle had once again emerged. Nonetheless, a bitter fight was waged against the “invisible enemy.” In the US, the pandemic had led to the most monumental mobilization since World War II, the president stated.

US Promises Coronavirus Vaccine Will be Released Soon

Trump also announced that they would soon have a vaccine, defeat the virus, and leave the pandemic behind before entering a “new era of unprecedented prosperity, cooperation and peace”.

Besides China and the pandemic, Trump furthermore underlined his administration’s efforts for peace. America was fulfilling its “destiny as a peacemaker,” but it was “peace through strength.” He highlighted the breakthrough in the agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Israel and the two Arab states have agreed to normalize their relations through Trump’s mediation.

A “peace agreement between Serbia and Kosovo” had also been reached, he claimed. However, while Serbia and Kosovo agreed to normalize their economic relations through the White House mediation, no peace agreement has been concluded at this point.

The High US Death Toll of COVID-19

According to the Johns Hopkins University, around 200,000 Americans have died after being infected with the virus in the USA since the beginning of the corona pandemic. In addition, there were more than 6.8 million confirmed infections with the Sars-CoV-2 pathogen in the country.

Due to the pandemic, this year’s General Assembly is taking place virtually. The representatives of all 193 member states — including well over 150 heads of state and government — did not speak as they normally would at the UN headquarters in New York, but instead utilized pre-recorded video speeches. This did nothing to stop the war of words, however.

L'articolo Trump Slams China at 2020 UN General Assembly Opening proviene da InsideOver.

At the start of August, the most influential month of German foreign policy for years ended. In the previous months, Germany chaired the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the second time during its two-year temporary membership in the highest decision-making body of the UN.

Germany’s Big Month on the World Stage

It was a month that already started intensely; after all, the Security Council agreed on day one and approved a corona resolution. Members had argued about it for months — a milestone in two ways. On the one hand, the resolution could be passed directly. On the other hand, it was agreed to follow a ceasefire so that the international community could concentrate on combating COVID-19.

The other task last month was less than satisfactory. The reason:

The resolution, which ensures that humanitarian aid for millions of Syrians is extended, was only passed after tough negotiations. Everything is even more complicated because Russia, as an ally of Syria’s ruler Bashar Assad, dictated the conditions. It was only at the last second that it became clear that in the future, this aid would only run through one — instead of two border crossings. Once again, an optimal solution could not be found. The good news, however, is that the aid has been secured for at least another year.

Trying to Find Peace in Libya

On the subject of Libya, too, the Security Council brought the Berlin conference participants back together in the most powerful way. Germany was able to set an example here last month. Germany made it clear that they want a Security Council that works and that the answer to today’s questions is not isolationism but multi-lateralism.

Germany is particularly interested in issues that do not revolve around current sources of fire. Moreover, they called on staff: Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer warned that human rights should be respected when the peacekeeping forces deployed. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas appealed for a more substantial fight against sexual violence in conflicts.

Germany’s Desire to Tackle Climate Change

And then there is climate change. Here, too, Germany is playing a pioneering role. Many see the topic as perhaps the most pressing issue for the world. Moreover, the aspect of “the impact of climate change on security” is one that Germany wants to tackle in the Security Council.

The resolution for a climate early warning system remained in the German drawer. The US blocked the proposal. Still, the idea is not off the table. The issues will not be forgotten just because Germany is no longer on the Security Council. These issues are now set as priorities on the agenda going forward — at least that is what Berlin hopes.

Moreover, something else will remain: for the first time since the corona pandemic, the first meetings were held under the German chairmanship at which the members were present.

What will also remain is that German foreign policy depends on conditions that can significantly diminish or ultimately stifle their impact. It is tied to internationally legitimized institutions and the principle of collective cooperation.

Heiko’s Big Move

At a time when the recklessness and arrogance of important actors are growing, the latter leads to a loss of influence and creative power. Foreign Minister Maas tried to organize a counter-movement to the autocrats: an alliance of multi-lateralists. However, even such an initiative needs a sense of community and leadership to counter the determination of the ruthless with an equal and opposite force.

Unfortunately, Germany has yet to get over its reluctance to lead. What is needed from Berlin is the confidence and the self-awareness worthy of a country that has economic leverage and the nobility of having been an example of courage, strength, and support for so many other nations.

The latter should have been a bigger part of Germany’s time as chair in the UNSC. It was not.

L'articolo Germany’s Missed Opportunity at the UN Security Council proviene da InsideOver.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz has been a source of tension between the US and Iran for some time. The US military’s Central Command recently published a black-and-white video showing that the Iranian Navy boarded and briefly seized a Liberian-flagged oil tanker called the MT Wila in the Strait.

The video also showed that special forces were fast-roping down a helicopter onto the MT Wila, whose last position appeared to be off the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates near the city of Khorfakkan.

The Iranian Navy captured the vessel for approximately five hours before releasing it on Wednesday, according to a US military official who spoke to the Associated Press. So far, no reason has been given for the vessel’s seizure.

US Sanctions are Having a Limited Effect

In July, an oil tanker wanted by the US was “hijacked” off the coast of the United Arab Emirates after supposedly smuggling Iranian crude oil.

US President Donald Trump has provided no response to this latest incident so far, but with a presidential election around the corner, he has a limited amount of time to tackle Iran’s action.

The US President recently pledged to strike a new nuclear deal with Tehran “within four weeks” if he is re-elected in November, according to a video of his remarks from inside a New Jersey fundraiser that was reported on by the Independent. Regardless, it is unclear what a new deal would look like, but it is needed fast if Trump is serious about curbing the threat that Iran poses to peace in the Middle East.

One option that is available to Trump in the meantime is that he could impose more sanctions on Iran. It is clear that the Iranian economy has been badly damaged by both the coronavirus and preexisting US sanctions. Focus Economics states that US sanctions and the coronavirus will cause the Iranian economy to contract sharply for the third consecutive year by 7.3 percent.

Iran is Breaching its 2015 Deal

Whilst US sanctions have succeeded in slowing down the Iranian economy, they are not a long-term solution to the problem. It is clear that they are not preventing Tehran from developing its nuclear program.

Bloomberg’s Jonathan Tirone discovered that the Iranian Government is moving to boost production of nuclear fuel at a crucial facility in Natanz which was struck by apparent sabotage last month. Iranian engineers have already installed piping needed to accumulate higher volumes of material that will be generated by three new centrifuge cascades. This represents an apparent breach of the 2015 Iran Deal that Barack Obama signed during his tenure as US president.

For now, Washington has no choice but to exercise all diplomatic options available to them to exert pressure on Iran. The Trump Administration recently revised a resolution that would extend a UN arms embargo on Iran for an indefinite period of time. The original resolution is due to expire on October 18. The UN Security Council will vote on this resolution on Friday, but Tehran’s allies, China and Russia, have the power to thwart such a proposal and they have already voiced strong opposition to it.

The Trump Administration has few Options Left

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has already warned of consequences if the UN approves of such a measure.

The resolution does have the support of Saudi Arabia as the country’s UN ambassador, Abdul Aziz Al-Wasel, said during a conference held in Geneva that Tehran smuggles weapons to militias to destabilize peace in the Middle East.

The Trump administration is right to prioritize a deal with Iran should the US President succeed in getting re-elected in November. But until Trump can produce a coherent plan to achieve this aim, it seems like his options are limited, at least until later on this year. This is why Iran is bold enough to continue to seize oil tankers and enrich its nuclear fuel. Whoever wins the US election this year has an enormous challenge ahead of them.

L'articolo How Should Trump React to Iran’s Seizure of Another Oil Tanker? proviene da InsideOver.

In what would normally seem like an unlikely alliance, France and Russia have been not-so-secretly allying with each other in the Libyan civil war. While the UN recognizes the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Russia has openly supported rogue General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA). While France has not officially admitted its support of Haftar’s forces, French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly issued calls for Turkey to cease its support of the GNA.

The Start of Something New

On Friday, June 26, Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a video call and pledged to work together on Libya in addition to other global hotspots, as the New York Times reported.

“If we want to achieve positive results, we need to combine our efforts,” Putin told Macron. “I know about your intention to organize joint work on many of those issues. We will fully support your proposals.”

The two leaders discussed the anniversary of the UN Charter, which is now 75-years-old, and the coronavirus pandemic that prevents Macron from visiting Moscow, which he intends to do once the threat of the virus subsides. When the discussion turned to Libya, however, Macron ironically expressed the need to prevent foreign interference, by which he means Turkey.

Macron Calls on Putin to Help End ‘Dangerous Cycle’

Calling it a “dangerous cycle,” Macron appealed to Putin to work with him in what has quickly become a lost cause for the GNA and its allies. Thanks to Ankara’s bolstering support of the GNA, Haftar’s forces have been locked out of Tripoli and their attacks repelled.

France’s embroilment with Russia and its refusal to side with the GNA are two oddities in modern geopolitics. Firstly, Russia has meddled or attempted to meddle in nearly every foreign state it can. In the 2016 US elections, Moscow was there sponsoring social media disinformation campaigns and the same with Brexit.

It attempted to assassinate a former operative in Salisbury, England, and then managed actually to do so in Berlin. It has tried to undermine NATO at every opportunity and annexed part of Ukraine without consequence. In short, Russia is indisputably an enemy of the West, which begs the question: why is Macron turning to Putin as if he is an ally?

Choosing Russia Over Turkey

Turning to the Libya situation, the West has made it abundantly clear that it supports the UN–recognized government. The GNA was created with unanimous consent from the UN Security Council, of which both France and Russia are permanent members. Russia’s refusal to back the GNA should come as no surprise, because the situation quickly deteriorated into a ‘West vs Others’ proxy battle for political influence over the African state.

France’s defection is more curious, however. It is one part an economic move and another part Macron’s first attempt to usher in a new era for French influence. When Macron came to power, the GNA was still newly minted under Macron’s predecessor. Indeed, Macron invited Haftar to Paris as an attempt to secure a peace accord, as POLITICO reported.

‘Half Naiveté, Half Opportunism’

“Macron was misadvised into thinking that Libya could be a quick win for his charisma,” said Tarek Megerisi, a Libyan researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “He underestimated the complexity of the country. It was half naiveté, half opportunism. He tried to rely on military personnel to solve a political problem.”

It was also an attempt to correct former French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s perceived error in being too lenient with late Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi.

Economic concerns, primarily oil-related, led Macron to believe backing Haftar is the best chance for stability in Libya. The reality is that Paris’ support of the general has put France in a precarious position and oddly given it justification for building a bridge between Paris and Moscow.

Their budding friendship unites not only in Libya, but also on a regional scale against Turkey. Macron has used the opportunity to criticize Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but Ankara actually stands with the UN in this rare case. The French president has also used it as an opportunity to call Turkey’s NATO obligations into question.

“Turkey is supposed to be a NATO partner, so this cannot continue,” an official for Macron said.

Turkey Gains Upper Hand in UN

GNA forces have already maintained control of the military situation on the ground, but soon the Libyan government may gain an upper hand in the UN. Although it was already the UN-recognized government, the recent election of Volkan Bozkir, the first Turkish president of the UN General Assembly, could alter the power dynamic.

Bozkir, a close Erdogan ally and fierce defender of Ankara, comes into his new post with a strong bias. He declared his intention to pursue International peace and where better to start than Libya? It would be difficult to imagine Bozkir supporting anything other than the GNA and restoration of Tripoli’s rightful government which will also be an easy point to sell to the West. 

Macron, who has been positioning France as an international power capable of cutting deals and keeping the peace, will have to reconcile his continued devotion to Haftar’s cause. In the larger scheme, Paris will also be faced with the challenge of defending its new ties with Russia, a well-known adversary of the West and NATO.

L'articolo Macron Builds Closer Ties with Russia, Starting in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Much ink has been spilled over Turkey’s aggressive foreign policy and involvement in the conflicts in Syria and Libya. With clear indications that Turkey has committed several violations of the UN-imposed arms embargo in Libya and with repeating calls for disengagement of any foreign powers from North Africa being ignored by Turkey, Ankara has attracted much international criticism over the past several years.

Yet Volkan Bozkir was elected on June 17 as President of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), being the first Turk to win this position. Bozkir’s future appointment constitutes a clear message that the alleged Turkish isolation in the international system is nothing more than wishful thinking of its rival countries.

Bozkir’s Background, Past Statements and Relations with AKP

Bozkir graduated in 1971 with a Law Degree from Ankara University. From his very first professional steps, it was evident that he would pursue a career in the field of foreign affairs. Bozkir’s notable past experience in foreign policy includes serving as Turkey’s Consul General in New York, Ambassador in Bucharest, Deputy Director General for EU Political Affairs, Minister of European Union Foreign Affairs for Turkey and Chief Negotiator for the Turkish Accession to the EU.

Bozkir is considered to be a close ally of President Recep Tayyep Erdogan; he was elected as an MP for Istanbul with the Justice and Development Party –Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi or AKP– for three consecutive terms, namely the 24^th, 25^th and 26^th Parliaments of the Republic of Turkey. Erdogan has strongly backed Bozkir’s candidacy for the Presidency of the UNGA; this could be interpreted as an aspect of the Turkish President’s long-term strategic effort to promote Turkish interests and positions abroad through a combination of diplomatic, political and military means.

Bozkir Backs Erdogan

Bozkir himself has openly defended President Erdogan in several instances; last year Bozkir said that the US positions have been irrelevant, unfair and out of the limits with regards to the American reaction over the S-400 dispute. Also there have been numerous cases where Bozkir’s statements have provoked international controversy and disapproval. For example back in 2015, while serving as Minister of EU Affairs, Bozkir personally denounced Pope Francis and the Argentinian people as a whole. The reason was the Pontifex’s reference to the Armenian Genocide, an accusation that Turkey has constantly rejected and downplayed. In another 2016 remark, amidst negotiations around the Turkish EU membership, Bozkir declared that the Turkey-EU migrant deal was facing a very dangerous moment, indirectly blackmailing the European Union with a potential major refugee influx unless Turkish interests were served.

Reaction of Fellow UN Members to Bozkir’s Election

A couple of weeks prior to the vote for the new UNGA President, three UN members submitted a letter to the UNGA to formally complain about Bozkir’s candidacy. The permanent representatives of Armenia, Cyprus and Greece submitted their objections in an attempt to block Turkey from holding such a prominent role in the UN. As stated in the links provided, the three countries stressed the destabilizing role of Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean region and MENA.

Armenia and Cyprus also particularly tackled, in their joint letter, their domestic grievances; Yerevan noted that Turkey not only keeps refuting the Armenian genocide, but also is currently strangling the country financially through imposing a long-term blockade across the land border with Armenia, on the pretext of protesting the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Nicosia, from her side, highlighted the 1974 invasion and unlawful occupation ever since of the northern part of the island, which constitutes the self-proclaimed  — recognized only by Turkey  —  Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

On the other hand, Athens focused on the current Turkish provocations with regards to the Greek territory. H.E. Mrs. Maria Theofili, the Greek Ambassador and Permanent Representative in the UN, mentioned that there have been over 300 violations of Greek airspace by Turkish fighter jets in the last five months alone. The Ambassador also emphasized that the State-owned Turkish Petroleum Corporation published in the Official Gazette several illicit applications for a hydrocarbon exploration license on May 30. The application referred to parts of the Greek continental shelf and specifically, certain areas in the proximity of the Greek islands of Crete, Karpathos, Kassos and Rhodes. It should be noted that all three countries clarified that their complaint was referring to Turkish policy and not to Bozkir personally.

On June 17, Volkan Bozkir was elected head of the UNGA by an overwhelming majority of 178 out of the 192 voting UN member states, after a secret election process. The exact result was 178 votes, 11 abstentions and 3 invalid ballots, probably attributed to Armenia, Cyprus and Greece. Bozkir was the sole candidate for the position. His appointment was silently approved by all the member states back in February 2020, when it was officially confirmed that he would be the only nominee.

Bozkir’s New Position Boost Turkey’s Role Internationally

Bozkir’s election has been received enthusiastically in his home country. Despite the concerns that Turkish aggression has been causing over the last years and Erdogan’s opportunistic policy that has caused Ankara to be perceived as an unreliable and unpredictable partner, this latest development emphasizes that Turkey has indeed emerged as a notable regional player with significant international standing.

Shortly after his election, Bozkir stated that he would contribute to international peace and stability, and would pursue equal representation for all member states. The impact of the first Turkish President being elected in the UN General Assembly remains to be seen; however, I highly doubt that this change will limit the Turkish expansionist aspirations or persuade Turkish policymakers to follow a more moderate policy, in accordance with international law and UN guidance. The most realistic scenario is that Bozkir’s presidency will have exactly the opposite effect.

L'articolo Volkan Bozkir: the First Turkish President of the UN General Assembly proviene da InsideOver.

US President Donald Trump removed America from the Iranian Nuclear Deal in May of 2018, but that might not stop his administration from arguing it is still a member of the accord. In an unusual tactic, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is preparing to justify America’s continued participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in an attempt to force the UN to renew an arms embargo on Tehran, as the New York Times reported.

Flip-Flopping

Nearly a month ago, Pompeo indicated the Trump administration would consider easing some sanctions on Iran to help it fight COVID-19. Now, Pompeo is back to waging President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, however. Since the Middle Eastern state has been sanctioned nearly every way possible from Washington, Pompeo has turned to the expiring UN arms embargo on Iran.

The embargo, established at the same time as the JCPOA, is set to expire in stages — restrictions on small arms will be lifted in October with missiles embargoed for an additional three years. An updated copy of the resolution reads: 

“Iran shall not supply, sell or transfer, directly or indirectly, from its territory, by its nationals or using its flag vessels or aircraft, any arms or related matériel, and that all member states shall prohibit the procurement of such items from Iran by their nationals, or using their flagged vessels or aircraft, and whether or not originating in the territory of Iran.”

Pompeo wants the UN to extend the embargo, but in anticipation of Russia and China objecting, he is readying another option. If the US was still a member of the JCPOA, it could exercise a “snapback” provision in the deal. Doing so would essentially return all UN sanctions that existed before the agreement including sanctions on oil and banking.

“We cannot allow the Islamic Republic of Iran to purchase conventional weapons in six months. President Obama should never have agreed to end the U.N. arms embargo,” Pompeo told the New York Times. “We are prepared to exercise all of our diplomatic options to ensure the arms embargo stays in place at the U.N. Security Council.”

Expecting Resistance

According to the New York Times, Moscow has already signaled interest in selling arms to Tehran once again. Both Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council alongside the US. If a single member disagrees with passing an embargo extension, the measure will fail.

Pompeo understands this and, more pertinently, he knows the proposed extension will come under heavy scrutiny when pitched to the UN. Both Russia and China have already called the Trump administration out for escalating tensions and argued the sanctions are unjust.

“I think [the Trump administration] will get tremendous pushback, because the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement,” said Wendy Sherman, the lead negotiator for the JCPOA and director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard. 

On May 8, 2018, Trump said “I am announcing today that United States will withdraw from the nuclear deal.” He justified it by declaring “we have definitive proof” of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons and called the JCPOA  “one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made.” He also said it was “nuclear blackmail.” 

When a reporter asked how withdrawing from the JCPOA would make America safer, he only replied that it would, offering no details.

In tearing up the deal, Trump hoped to forge a new one bearing his name. In the same speech he announced the US withdrawal, he said Pompeo had been dispatched to North Korea to create a deal. No deal has been signed between the US and North Korea, other than a vague pledge to recommit to peace between the two states.

Pompeo’s mission to portray the US as still involved in the nuclear deal may seem impossible given Trump’s own statements on the issue. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif highlighted the perceived hypocrisy in his reaction. He said Pompeo and Trump were “dreaming that their ‘max pressure’ would bring Iran to its knees. Given that policy’s abject failure, he now wants to be JCPOA participant.”

Biding Time

If the other members of the UN Security Council refuse grant an extension for the arms embargo, it the ball would be back in Trump’s court. At that point, if Pompeo isn’t bluffing, he would try to force UN members to restore sanctions, effectively nullifying the agreement. Achieving that would be questionable, however, as some European states, notably France, have taken on more of a mediator role on the issue.

The UK, Germany, Russia, China, EU, and France are all still parties to the nuclear deal and have urged both sides to reconcile. Even as Tehran exceeded limits and became non-compliant, the signatories refused to rollback the agreement and restore sanctions. 

While Pompeo can threaten to undercut the deal, assuming the remaining signatories even entertain the idea of the US having not withdrawn, it would still be up to other states to enforce it. On paper, UN sanctions could be restored, but Washington might find itself pitted against the rest of the world in that case.

What could Trump do if other states refuse to honor sanctions Pompeo is arguing for? The global economy is already wrecked for the foreseeable future, so threatening trade wars would not be as effective. Furthermore, with an election in November, other states could simply refuse to comply and wait until the election plays out. By that point, they could conceivably only have two months left of Trump before a more reasonable successor takes office.

For Tehran, a lifting of the embargo in October would open up an economic avenue in a time when it has few options. It’s economy has plummeted to unimaginable depths and could certainly benefit greatly. However, continuing with an embargo extension would likely have little effect. There aren’t stockpiles of weapons and factories spun up in anticipation of a sudden boom in sales. Tehran isn’t as invested yet in the embargo being lifted.

L'articolo Pompeo Insists US Still Part of Iranian Nuclear Deal in Ploy to Extend Arms Embargo proviene da InsideOver.

The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) recently reported that COVID-19 will adversely affect women more than men. The study laid bare a swath of undesirable effects including rises in domestic violence and female genital mutilation (FGM). The virus’ attack on women begins on the frontline where 70% of medical personnel are women, said Dr. Ramiz Alkbarov, UNFPA deputy executive director.

‘Catastrophe Within a Catastrophe’

According to the report, “Women and girls have unique health needs, but they are less likely to have access to quality health services, essential medicines and vaccines, maternal and reproductive health care, or insurance coverage for routine and catastrophic health costs, especially in rural and marginalized communities. Restrictive social norms and gender stereotypes can also limit women’s ability to access health services. All of this has particular impacts during a widespread health crisis.”

The pandemic has forced the closure of facilities that provide services to women and the ones that remain open are fielding more calls than usual. If the lockdown continues for 6 more months, UNFPA estimates there will be 7 million unplanned pregnancies and 31 domestic violence cases against women, as Time reported.

“These issues aren’t exclusive to the developing world. Inequality is less pronounced in the developed world but it’s still there. It’s a catastrophe,” said Alakbarov. “Women are the first to lose their jobs during these crises, they’re the first to stand up for the family, they take most of the brunt economically. But this report is a catastrophe within a catastrophe.”

Even before COVID-19, women earned less and were more likely to fall into poverty around the globe, he said. Now, with a lack of job opportunities combined with school closures, their duties have increased as they are often forced into roles providing more unpaid care for the family, such as looking after children.

Long-Term Losses

The impact on women’s health could have long-lasting consequences. With prevention programs closed, another 2 million girls and women are at risk of FGM and 13 million child marriages could be carried out. Unwanted pregnancies could compel women to take dangerous actions.

“As well as resulting in an increased risk of abortions, hemorrhages, and miscarriages,” Alakbarov told Business Insider, “unwanted pregnancies effectively raise maternal mortality. Children and households will be left without mothers. It launches up a whole vicious circle.”

The deadly cycle won’t stop once lockdown measures are lifted or even by the end of the year, the report concludes. UNFPA expects increases in violence and abuse to continue for the next decade, a sign of how quickly positive gains can be lost.

“Many women are being forced to ‘lockdown’ at home with their abusers at the same time that services to support survivors are being disrupted or made inaccessible,” the report reads. 

In a typical year, UNFPA estimates violence against women and girls costs the global economy $1.5 trillion per year.

Women-Focused Recovery

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said women must be at the centre of recovery efforts. To counteract the looming disaster for women across the world, he recommended having women leadership take charge. Women in power is the first step at putting women at the centre of recovery efforts he said. 

“Progress lost takes years to regain. Teenage girls out of school may never return,” Guterres said.

Economically, social safety nets and economic relief measures should provide for women. Governments should take care to ensure vital services for women remain open. This entails allocating more money for organisations providing essential care. 

“Reprioritization of national budgets is needed,” Alakbarov said. “Governments have to reconsider [their priorities], as well as citizens and private sectors. If we don’t over the next six months, we will see the above projections come to fruition.”

For each dollar spent on women’s education and health, $3 is returned to economies, he added. “It’s pretty much the smartest investment any government or society can make.”

L'articolo UN Report: COVID-19 a Disaster for Women proviene da InsideOver.

So far, Africa has suffered less coronavirus deaths and infections compared to other continents. However, the continent will not escape the looming economic slump as the pandemic continues to cripple economies around the world.

On March 13, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) warned that the unfolding coronavirus crisis could seriously dent Africa’s already stagnant growth.

“Africa may lose half of its GDP, with growth falling from 3.2% to about 2% due to a number of reasons which include the disruption of the global supply chain,” said the Commission’s Executive Secretary, Mrs Vera Songwe.

African Countries are Vulnerable to Global Disruptions

Experts are blaming this on Africa’s over dependence on imports from outside the continent. According to UNCTAD, intra-African trade, which is defined as the average of intra-African exports and imports, was around 2% compared with 68.1% in Europe, 59.4% in Asia and 55.5% in America. This means that African countries are vulnerable to global disruptions caused by activities such as pandemics and terrorism.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first half of 2019, China’s total import and export volume with Africa was $101.86 billion, up 2.9% year on year. China’s exports to Africa were $52.86 billion, up 5.2% year on year. With China’s economy devastated by the coronavirus, the volume of exports to Africa will go down, resulting in lower consumer spending.

This exposes Nigeria’s economy which relies heavily on Chinese commodities. China accounts for almost a quarter of Nigeria’s imports. As the virus continues to spread across the country, economic growth will slow down, and borrowing costs will increase because of reduced imports from China.

The Demand for African Goods is Set to Fall Considerably

On the other hand, the demand for African goods is set to fall considerably as major trading partners outside the continent implement lockdowns and restrict flights.

South Africa’s top export destinations are China ($17.1B), the US ($8.21B), India ($8B) and the UK ($7.97B). All these countries have been hit had by the coronavirus, forcing them to introduce measures to prevent its spread. This is a major disruption to the foreign export markets for South Africa whose economy is already in recession.

70% of Kenyan flowers are sold in Europe, mostly though an auction in the Netherlands. Now the coronavirus has grounded shipments and most European governments have banned public gatherings exceeding two people. Flowers are now cut and left to rot in farms.

“This being a living product, we cannot stop the entire operation,” Sachin Appachu, general manager of Bliss Flora Ltd, told France 24.

In an interview with the AFP, Clement Tulezi, the director of the Kenya Flower Council, said: “We are cash-strapped. We are losing over 250 million shillings ($2.3 m). People in Europe have two immediate needs: that is food and their own safety. The rest are luxuries. And so they are looking at flowers as a luxury.”

How Will Travel and Tourism Be Affected?

The impact of the coronavirus on the travel and tourism industry is also expected to leave a huge dent on Africa’s economy. African governments have imposed travel bans on countries such as China and Italy, thereby reducing the number of people visiting the country for business and tourism. Before the pandemic, tourism in Africa was growing at 5% per year.

In Egypt, the Minister for Tourism and Antiquities, Mr Khaled el-Anani, said that monthly tourism losses due to the lockdown would reach $1 billion. “We lost a lot of money, especially since the monthly tourism revenue is $1 billion, but the health of Egyptians is more important,” he told Al-Monitor.

In Luxor, a major Egyptian tourist hotspot and one of the cities that were greatly affected by the coronavirus, one tour guide called Mohamed Said complained: “The coronavirus has really affected tourism here. Many hotels reservations have been cancelled and tourists can barely be seen at tourist sites.”

Central banks of various African countries are taking measures to cushion the economy from the effects of the pandemic. The Central Bank of Kenya last week lowered its lending rates to 7.25 from 8.25% to shield borrowers. This will ensure money is easily available to citizens to encourage spending. To prop up the tourism sector, the Egyptian Central Bank yesterday provided loans to tourist companies with repayment terms of up to two years and a six month grace period. It also slashed its main interest rates by 300 basis points.

L'articolo Impact of Covid-19 on Africa’s economy proviene da InsideOver.