On July 21, 2020 Antalya NAVTEX (Navigational Text Message) Station issued a Navigational Warning, effective between July 21 and August 2 for seismic survey being done by R/V ORUÇ REİS, ATAMAN and CENGİZ. The survey encompasses a wide area offshore the island of Kastelorizo, and covers several parts of the Greek Continental Shelf. As tension in the Eastern Mediterranean is rising, the international community is standing by and expecting further moves from each side.

A Pre-Announced Provocation from Turkey

The Turkish NAVTEX warning and the scheduled deployment of seismic research vessels in the Greek Continental Shelf is nothing new at all and should not be surprising to Athens. Turkish President Recep Erdogan himself already pre-announced the move almost eight months ago. Specifically, Erdogan announced at the time that Turkey was planning to start drilling activities near Greek islands.

This claim was reinforced by the controversial Turkish-Libyan Memorandum of Understanding, and Ankara has declared that the drilling plans would proceed by August-September 2020. The lukewarm Greek — and international — reaction to the Turkish-Libyan MoU encouraged Ankara to go ahead with these plans. According to the Turkish approach the Greek islands have limited — if any — Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) rights. Furthermore, the Aegean is an open sea where Turkey has expanded influence due to its vast continental territory, as opposed to the small Greek islands. This claim cannot be backed under any circumstances by international law and the Conventions on the Law of the Sea, however Ankara keeps pushing these claims, while Greece is hardly responding and the international community stands by. There is nothing truly unexpected in the current Turkish moves, and Athens should be well-aware by now that the Turkish President never makes a statement or warning without the intention to act accordingly.

Greece Heightens Combat Readiness

Shortly after the Turkish NAVTEX warning was issued, the Hellenic Armed Forces were mobilized and the combat readiness level was raised in several units across the country. The Greek reaction aims to make clear to Turkey that unless Ankara abandons the plans for research and drilling within the Greek Continental Shelf, then the Hellenic Armed Forces are ready to engage with any Turkish vessels in the area.

The scope of the Greek deployment of the forces indicate that the Greek side is potentially getting ready for more than a short-term incident somewhere in the Eastern Mediterranean or among one of the Aegean Islands. The Greek mobilization is also taking place on the north land border of the country in the river Evros area, and other sensitive locations countrywide, while the most effective operational units are already standing by to be deployed.

Greece and Cyprus Issue Anti-NAVTEX Message

At the same time Greece and Cyprus have issued an anti-NAVTEX in the same area where Turkey had already covered in its warning. As per the Turkish response, the Greek-Cypriot action has been totally ignored by the Turkish Authorities, which stated that the anti-NAVTEX was issued by an unauthorized station and the July 21, 2020 navigational warning by the Antalya Station is still valid and effective.

Even though the Greek administration is carefully monitoring all the Turkish moves and the Hellenic Armed Forces are ready to react to any Turkish provocation, there is a strategic miscalculation happening on the Greek side. Athens is standing by and waiting to respond depending on the Turkish  moves; essentially Ankara is currently dominating the situation and shaping the possible developments, with Greece simply getting ready to act in the most appropriate way and react according to the Turkish course of action. In military terms, Ankara currently holds the initiative and could dictate the direction of the events, at least in the initial stages of a potential engagement.

Decisive Military Response and Proposed Economic Sanctions

Under the current circumstances, Athens should be considering implementing a balanced force projection strategy alongside the necessary diplomatic means. The Hellenic Navy should make clear that a decisive strike against the Turkish Forces will certainly take place in the likely scenario that the research vessels are accompanied by Turkish frigates. Being completely covered by international law, Greece has every right to protect its sovereignty by any means.

Ankara has repeatedly shown that when in a dispute, its moves are always adjusted depending on the tolerance of the other parties involved; and it should be noted that Turkey adopts this approach consistently regardless of the nature of the dispute, from a religious-political disagreement — see the recent example of the decision to turn the Hagia Sophia into a mosque — to a wide-scale military operation, like the major offensive in Idlib, Syria and the subsequent ceasefire deal.

The Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stated shortly after the Turkish incitement that the European Union would have no other choice but to impose economic sanctions on Ankara if the Turkish drilling plans go ahead. This was a rather ill-advised statement, considering that the sanctions on Turkey over a dispute between the two sides — or three when including Cyprus — have been negligible and barely affected the Turkish decision-making process. In the meantime, a representative of the US Department of State asserted yesterday — responding to journalists’ questions around the issue — that Turkey should cease any activities in “disputed waters.” Even though this statement has been received by major Greek media as an affirmation that Washington is backing Greece, the term “disputed waters” indicates that the US is indirectly accepting the Turkish claims, considering that the area which prompted the tension in the region is clearly and undoubtedly part of the Greek continental shelf.

At the moment that this article is being written, Turkish research vessels are moored offshore at Antalya. We can expect to see rapid developments in the days that follow. During this time, Greece needs to move fast and decisively, comprehending that at the current stage that the sole utilization of soft power tactics and diplomatic channels could lead the country to major and unprecedented territorial and strategic losses.

L'articolo Turkey Issues Provocative Warning as Tension Rises in the Eastern Mediterranean proviene da InsideOver.

Lebanese civilians fear there could be another war between Israel and Hezbollah after the discovery of rich offshore oil and gas reserves on disputed territory.

International oil and gas exploration company, Energean, announced in November, 2019 that the waters near Lebanon’s southern border contains recoverable resources of 0.9 trillion cubic feet of gas, and 34mm barrels of light oil and condensate. The oil and gas reserves – worth tens of millions of dollars – is present in a triangular area of water known as Block 9.

Israel And Palestine Both Claim The Reserves

The offshore borderline is disputed between both countries, because of its incredible oil and gas wealth. Although Lebanon is a signatory of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Israel is not. Article 3 of the UNCLOS concludes that, “every State has the right to establish the breadth of its territorial sea up to a limit not exceeding 12 nautical miles, measured from base lines determined in accordance with this Convention.” Israel, however, operates under international maritime law.

“We will not hesitate to use our force and strength to protect not only the rule of law but the international maritime law,” Israel’s Minister of National Infrastructures, Uzi Landau, said years before.

“I Think That There Would Be A War”

Speaking about the conflict last year, former Lebanese army general, Eliad Farhat, said emphatically: “I think that there would be a war.” The Foreign Policy Research Institute argued last month that Israel’s border dispute is an issue of financial security. It wants to solidify its economic and political power on the national stage.

For Lebanon, however, the stakes are even higher. The nation was driven to mass protests at the end of 2019, as protesters, fed up with decades-long economic, social and environmental crises, demanded revolution. At an estimated 155 percent of gross domestic product, Lebanon is one of the world’s most indebted countries. Its government has been accused of decades of corruption, sectarianism and mismanagement of public funds.

“I am taking part because over the last 30 years warlords have been ruling us. I am about to be 30 and my parents still tell me tomorrow will be better. I am not seeing better days ahead,” said Sylvia Yaqoub, 29, a laboratory manager taking part in the protests. “We want back the money they stole because 30 families are ruling five million people. We won’t accept this any longer,” she added.

Lebanon’s Utilities Company: A Financial Black Hole

The country’s infrastructure is also severely lacking, under a government that refuses to diversify its rentier economy, with an equal dependence on remittances from its emigrant population. Its estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees are an additional financial and infrastructural strain on Beirut’s already failing government. Arabian Industry has called the government’s utilities company a huge financial drain and “major source of the nation’s ballooning debt”.

“The electricity sector in Lebanon is undergoing a transition from heavy fuel oil to natural gas,” the Lebanese Petroleum Administration wrote in a statement.

“Most of the existing power plants and all the planned plants are equipped to run on natural gas. A prospective natural gas discovery is expected to first fulfill the needs of the local market, in particular the electricity sector, which is the main off-taker of natural gas.”

Additionally, access to this natural gas reserve would increase Lebanon’s export and revenue, reducing the country’s debt and unemployment problem.

Crisis Point: South Lebanon

South Lebanon, Hezbollah’s heartland – and bordering Israel – has been a war zone for forty years. In 2018, attacks from both sides of the border saw a one-day battle between Hezbollah and Israel, in a sign of the diminishing relationships between leaders of both countries. Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Shi’ite Muslim movement, and Amal, both received support in last year’s protests.

“If we don’t work towards a solution we’re heading towards a collapse of the country, it will be bankrupt and our currency will not have any value,” Hezbollah leader, Sayeed Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech targeting the nation “The second danger is a popular explosion as a result of wrong handling of the situation,” he added.

Lebanon’s problem is multi-generational. It is a shared problem between its government, its banks, its militia-leaders and its wealthy elite. Its disputed oil and gas reserves may improve the country’s financial standing, but there is no guarantee that an already broken government and political system would be able to economically manage such a big responsibility for the benefit of the people.

Partly a failure of international laws, where two different laws override the same jurisdiction, the problems facing both sides of the border are multi-faceted and driven by deeply nationalistic and tribalistic sentiments. Diplomatic talks have been tenuous and unsuccessful, yet threats of war, attacks and violence have been plenty. The only sure thing going forward is that civilians on both sides of the dispute will suffer the consequences of both nations’ actions.

L'articolo Fears Of Another Israel-Hezbollah War After Discovery Of Large Oil Reserves proviene da InsideOver.