The airplane that was hit by Iranian missiles above Tehran is not “just” a disaster that killed hundreds of innocent people. Its effects are much more significant than they might seem, with a government that’s staggering before the accusations of the West and before a population that quickly forgot its united objective after the death of Qasem Soleimani, turning its rage towards the authorities.

That night in Tehran seemed like it would never end. After Soleimani was murdered, time seemed to stop in Iran and was stuck in a nightmare that the ayatollah system seems unable to bounce back from. And those who have been weakened first are the Revolutionary Guards, the Pasdaran, who have lost not only their leading figure in the Middle East and their connection to foreign powers and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but also a level of credibility that is fundamental for remaining tethered to the system of power that has been constructed in recent decades.

The Ukraine Airlines plane was hit by a missile that left a nearby Revolutionary Guards base. And the Pasdaran air force commander, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, has assumed “full responsibility” for the hit. “We assume full responsibility for the error, and whatever the government decides, we are ready to obey,” said the official at a dramatic press conference. And he also revealed that he would have preferred dying after seeing what had happened.

Hajizadeh did not die. But his position is now particularly weak, especially because masses are calling for the heads of those who shot down the airplane and hid the evidence. But, more than anything, the public are starting to have little faith in the strength of the Pasdaran. And this is a particularly significant problem for an Islamic Republic that is experiencing a considerable systemic crisis due to the protests this past winter (unofficial sources spoke of hundreds dead) and sanctions that are strangling the economy, and which awaits next month’s elections with much up in air. Reaching this crisis with Soleimani dead, Hajizadeh weakened and with a Supreme Leader who has been blamed by part of the population complicates the life of the Guards and that of Khamenei himself. Never has he been harassed and his strengths hit so hard as this.

With the death of Soleimani, Khamenei lost his connection between Tehran and the Middle East and one of the men who was closest to him politically. The general was a strategic threat to the United States and Washington’s allies in the Middle East, starting with Israel. And he was the only one who was capable of reversing the fate of the war against Isis in Iran’s favor, infiltrating all countries with a strong Shiite community. In addition to Soleimani’s political and military experience and skill, there was the strength of Hajizadeh, the head of one of the most feared branches of the Guards, the Aerospace Force (Afagir).

As leader of the Irgc missile program, Hajizadeh has directly threatened to hit bases and cities in the United States (in the past few days) and Israel (over the years) many times. And he is, in essence, the head of the second most dangerous force of the Pasdaran after the Quds.

Tunnels for launching the missiles, new technology for shooting down drones, the ballistic capabilities demonstrated (according to some) in raids against bases in Ein al-Asad and Erbil and especially the program that led Iran to develop the ability to hit US bases in the Gulf and all the largest cities in the Middle East are all elements that made the Pasdaran Aerospace Force a key part of the ayatollahs’ strategy. It’s true that the goal of the US sanctions and of the negotiations for the agreement with Tehran is the missile program.

The nuclear program, the missile program, the network of regional allies and the system of central power have always been the main goals of the political, military and financial siege laid by the United States. These are the cornerstones of the “anti-Iran” agenda. And in just two nights, in an endless dark week for the Islamic Republic, this system has faltered. The Quds force has been decapitated, the aerospace force has been gravely weakened in their leadership, the image of the Pasdaran has been wounded and Khamenei’s close circle of supporters has shrunk. Soleimani has paid in blood and Hajizadeh with an error that will surely be a permanent stain on his career in the eyes of Iranians.

The impression is that in Iran there is something much more important than the protests. There is a change of power in the state within the state, which has always been the target of the United States, the Revolutionary Guards, with the final goal of perhaps definitively weakening Khamenei. However, it’s unclear whether this will be done from within or from the outside, or just by tragic fate.

Translation by Alexa Ahern

L'articolo The Secret Side of the Night in Tehran proviene da InsideOver.

The killing of General Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike seemed to have united and rallied Iranians behind their Supreme leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani.

As the body of the revered military leader arrived in Tehran, thousands took to the streets, beating their chest and chanting death to America. Iran was a nation united by grief and patriotism.

However, the admission by the military of shooting down the Ukrainian Boeing jetliner has opened a can of worm which could spell doom for the regime.

Hundred’s of Iranians expressed their anger with the way the government had responded to questions about the air crash, coming out on the streets to demand the resignation of their leaders. “Commander in chief resign” and “death to liars”, they shouted. Perhaps the anger was intensified by the fact that almost 130, victims of the crash were Iranians of dual nationalities.

The mainly anti-government protests could easily bring back the memory of 1979 when a series of violent strikes and protests led to the overthrow of Iran’s last monarch Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in what is today known as Iran’s Islamic Revolution.

With the journalists also joining the criticism the government has a reason to fear. A statement by  the Association of Iranian journalist  read, “The publication of false information has had a severe impact on public opinion, and more than ever shook the media’s shaky position.”

The statement was issued as two journalists working for the state broadcaster IRIB, announced their resignation for being used by the state to tell lies.

When reports about the air crash emerged last week, US, Canada and UK, issued statements saying they strongly believed the jetliner was brought down by a missile. Lending credence to their claims was the fact that it happened just hours after Iran launched ballistic missiles against US military targets.

To some experts, the way the debris of the plane were strewn over a wide area was a sign that it was brought down by a missile. Furthermore, small halls appearing on the remains of the fuselage were indications of missile fragments. Iran, however, rejected the rumours calling them a “big lie”

The head of the country’s Civil Aviation Organisation, Mr Ali Abedzadeh, told a local TV channel that it was not possible an Iranian missile had hit the jet. “How would the antiaircraft system shoot it? It wasn’t a security area.” Mr Abedzadeh further added that nine other planes were flying in the area at the time while others were flying at an altitude of 25,000 feet. According to him, “If the plane was hit by a missile it would have exploded.”

For days Iran vehemently denied that it was responsible for bringing down the plane. However, with concrete evidence cropping up on social media and from intelligence sources, Iran was forced to admit that the jet was brought down by its air defence system.

This sparked angry riots across Tehran from those who accused the government of cover-up. Riot police quickly responded with tear gas to break the protests.

There’s no doubt that a regime change is something Donald Trump and his administration would love to see. Washington strategy for a regime change has always been, to put pressure on the regime by imposing heavy sanctions which would eventually cripple the economy, making Iranian’s to revolt against the government.

However, America has always denied this with Trump telling reporters last year, “we are not looking for regime. We are not looking at that at all.” Similar sentiments were expressed by Pompeo who stated “The objectives are to change behaviours of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” while the then-White House security adviser John Bolton said, “That’s not the policy of the administration. The policy of the administration is to make sure that Iran never gets close to deliverable nuclear weapons.”

But according to Brookings Institution, despite the denial, “regime change or at the very least regime collapse” is the main aim of Trump’s administration.

When the protests first broke out last week Trump tweeted,” To the brave and suffering Iranian people: I have stood with you since the beginning of my presidency and my government will continue to stand with you. We are following your protests closely. Your courage is inspiring.”

In another Tweet, he wrote, “Do not kill your protesters. Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the world is watching. More importantly, the USA is watching. Turn your internet back on and let reporters roam free! Stop the killing of your great Iranian people.”

In highlighting the state of Iranian economy, Brookings Institutions  said, “The reimposition of U.S sanctions on Iran has already imposed significant costs on the country, gutting the value of its domestic currency, driving off most reputable foreign investors, and severely complicating all international transactions.”

This affects the middle class and with the growing anti-government sentiments nothing can be ruled out. A simple trigger is enough to create a serious wave of dissent that can topple the government.

The Iranian government knows very well how the situation can turn out and has responded with great brutality, firing live ammunition and wounding several protesters. It is a ticking time bomb that has been waiting for a very long time to explode.

In November 2019 Iran faced serious internal strife as many took to the streets to protest against the country’s leadership and increase in fuel prices. Within a matter of hours, the violent protests had spread to 21 cities.

The government responded by killing 1,500 protesters and detaining thousands. To prevent the coordination of the protests and the sharing of information it shut down the internet for almost one week.

Even then the US couldn’t hide its support for the protests with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Tweeting, “The United States is with you, while the White House said, “We condemn the lethal force and severe communications restrictions used against demonstrators. Tehran has fanatically pursued nuclear weapons and missile programs, and supported terrorism, turning a proud nation into another cautionary tale of what happens when a ruling class abandons its people and embarks on a crusade for personal power and riches.”

Trump expressed his support to the protesters by tweeting, “ Iran has become so unstable that the regime has shut down their entire internet System so that the Great Iranian people cannot talk about the tremendous violence taking place within the country.”Iran dismissed all the statements terming them as hypocritical since the protests were caused by the sanctions imposed on the country by America.

Although the protests were brutally crushed, the resurging dissension in the aftermath of Ukraine flight 752 disaster, could pose the biggest threat to the regime. After all, Iran has a revolutionary history that could easily influence the protesters.

L'articolo Ukraine Flight 752 Could Spell Doom for the Iranian Government proviene da InsideOver.

After three days of denial, Iran finally came clean on Saturday about the downing of a Ukrainian civilian airliner earlier on Wednesday, January 8, which it said its forces had shot down errantly while on the alert over Tehran’s recent perilous escalation with the United States.

In a tweet, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called the incident a “crisis” caused by “US adventurism”. Hassan Rouhani, the country’s president, called it a “great tragedy” and an “unforgivable error”.

A Boeing 737-800, the airliner crashed a few minutes following its takeoff, leaving all 176 passengers dead. Iran said on Saturday that its air defenses were fired in error as it was expecting a retaliation from the United States after Tehran had ordered, a few hours earlier, the striking of two Iraqi military bases housing US troops.

Tehran’s downing of the commercial airplane rekindled a new wave of protests during the weekend, a few days after Iranians appeared to unite over the death of Iran’s highest-ranking general, Qassim Soleimani, in a US drone strike on Friday, January 3.

Now Iranians chanted slogans against Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling for his immediate resignation.

Iran’s Fars news agency reported that the anti-government protesters numbered about 1,000 people, whereas banners depicting the assassinated General Soleimani were torn.

Videos posted on social media showed protesters calling Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a murderer. Other footage showed people shouting “death to liars” and “death to the dictator” Such statements could get individuals executed in Iran.

The protests started as vigils, where people mourned the victims who were mostly students. People first gathered near the University of Amir Kabir in Tehran, many carrying candles and placing flowers at the gates of the university and in other public spaces, reported the New York Times.

But the gatherings soon turned into a public objection against the authorities. Iranians were enraged that Tehran had lied about the incident for so long, although a top Revolutionary Guards commander said on Saturday that he had soon informed authorities about the missile strike.

“When the US shot down an Iran plane in the Persian Gulf in 1988, they immediately announced that they were responsible,” a protester told the BBC. “I had hoped the Iranian authorities would have told the people from the very first day,” he added.

Iran previously said the incident was caused by the aircraft’s mechanical problems, as Boeing itself suffers a growing general criticism over reported mechanical failures that had caused several civil airliners to crash recently.

Critics said Tehran only admitted it carried out the strike after an international investigation – which it was leading – neared the conclusion that the Ukrainian airliner was hit by a missile.

Ukrainian officials said on Saturday that they could determine that the crash was due to a missile strike as soon as Thursday, a day following the incident, when they said they found enough evidence, although Iran tried to hinder the investigations, in efforts such as sweeping debris into piles instead of cautiously documenting it.

Ukraine called for compensation, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country insisted “on a full admission of guilt”.

Protesters in Tehran and other cities also blamed Iran for allowing commercial aviation to proceed normally, whereas Tehran had announced security measures over risks of reprisals from the United States.

The international reaction to the crash also overshadowed the sympathy Iran had gained after the killing of Soleimani. Canada, which was the most affected by the incident as 57 of its nationals died, said many questions remained.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday in a news conference that “Canada and the world still have many questions, questions that must be answered.”

Although Canada has not had diplomatic relations with Iran since 2012, Trudeau said he spoke with President Hassan Rouhani, who committed to collaborating with Canadian investigators.

Britain’s Boris Johnson also said that Iran’s “admission that Ukrainian International Airline Flight 752 was shot down by mistake by its armed forces is an important first step.”

Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ airspace unit, said he deeply regretted the incident for which he said he takes full responsibility. Rather than having the incident taking place, Hajizadeh told local media outlets he wished he “was dead”.

On Thursday, January 9, the White House passed a resolution to limit President Trump’s military powers against Iran, giving more authority to Congress to ease tensions in the Middle East. The United States also declared that it was stepping back from military action against Iran, but Trump still seeks direct involvement, even if internally.

“To the leaders of Iran – DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS,” Trump tweeted on Sunday. “Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the World is watching,” the tweet read. “More importantly, the USA is watching.”

Even as many countries have called for a de-escalation in regional tensions with Tehran, Iran now faces a bigger internal turmoil. On Sunday, January 12, more demonstrators were reported to have taken to the streets in Tehran and other cities.

Security forces used tear gas on protesters and cracked down on them, not allowing the mourners to hold vigils, critics said, even as Tehran admitted its wrongdoing. As many as 1,500 protesters were said to have been killed in the protests that erupted in November 2019.

L'articolo In Prospects of Easing Regional Tensions, Tehran Faces Internal Turmoil proviene da InsideOver.

Iran has finally taken responsibility for shooting down the Ukrainian jetliner leading to the loss of 176 lives, on the night it launched missile strikes against US targets.

Although it had been a widely held belief by many, especially in Europe and America that the Boeing jet was brought down by a missile, it took Tehran days to take accountability for the crash.

Iran’s admission is a big step in solving the circumstances that led to the crash. However, recorded cockpit and flight data from the period before the incident will still have to be reviewed and analysed as required by the ICAO regulations governing air crash investigation as laid down at the Chicago Convention of 1944.

This is where we are likely to see a strain in the international protocol requiring cooperation in air crash investigation. One thing that the key players in the current crisis in the Middle East have agreed on is that the plane was shot down by mistake after it was confused for an enemy aircraft.

But still, they have not hesitated to use it to reinforce their stand in the current crisis that arose after the killing of General Qassem Soleimani. While Iran has admitted bringing down the jet by mistake, it has blamed the US for creating the situation that led to the crash. On the other hand, the US has used it to put pressure on Tehran with President Trump tweeting support for the Iranian’s who have come out to protest against the shooting of the aircraft.

Nevertheless, ICAO’s Chicago Convention of 1944, made it clear, that the sole objective of Annex 13 investigations are to prevent accidents and incidents and not the apportion of blame or liability. “Annex 13 investigations result in reports of which the contents are shared to improve safety and best practices.”

According to the 1944 Convention of which both Iran and US are signatories, the country in which the accident occurred, in this case Iran, shall institute an investigation into the circumstances of the accident and be responsible for the conduct of such investigations.

Annex 13, (Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigations) to the Convention gives Iran unlimited independence in the conduct of the investigation and unrestricted authority over how it is conducted. This includes the gathering and analysis of all relevant information relating to the accident, the protection of the crash record, the issuance of safety recommendation, the determination of the cause of the crash, and the compilation of the final report.

On the other hand, it also provides for the involvement in the investigations of the state operating the aircraft, the state in which the aircraft was registered, and the state in which the aircraft was designed and manufactured.

In this case, America is allowed to participate in the investigations on the basis that Boeing manufactured the aircraft, while Ukraine is allowed to take part on the basis that it is the state of registry and also the operator of the aircraft.

The regulations also allow Canada which suffered many casualties to send a representative to take part in the investigations.

This is based on a clause which says, “A state which has a special interest in accident, by virtue of fatalities or serious injuries to its citizens is entitled to visit the scene of the accident, have access to the relevant factual information which is approved for public release by the state conducting the investigation, and receive a copy of the accident final report.”

This means America, Ukraine, and Canada are all interested parties in the investigations.

Black boxes relating to Boeing aircrafts have always been handed to the Boeing company in the US for analysis. But there are situations where countries have refused to send them to the US over for fear of bias. In March 2019, Ethiopian Airlines refused to hand the black box from the Boeing 737 crash in Addis Ababa and instead sent it to France following fears that the US would influence the investigations.

Just after the crash in Tehran, Iran’s head of Civil Aviation Organisation, Mr Ali Abedzadeh declared that Iran wouldn’t send the black box to Boeing, instead saying that they would be assessed in Iran under ICAO rules but would only allow Ukraine to take part in the evaluation of the flight data.

However after it became definite that the aircraft was brought down by a missile, Iran has now decided to include Boeing and the US National Transportation Safety Board NTSB in the investigations of the crash. So far the NTSB has accepted the invitation by stating,” The NTSB has designated an accredited representative to the investigation of the crash.”

According to experts, although Iran has insisted that it wouldn’t send the black box to America, it will need to send the black box to a foreign country in case they are damaged. This appeared to be the case after Iran officials revealed that the recovered flight recorder sustained damage due to the intense fire and the impact of the crash.

They said there was a possibility that data stored electronically in them had been lost, but investigators could access some useful data from the damaged devices.

In such a case,  Iran just like Ethiopia, would most likely send the black box to a neutral country, such as France or Russia to analyse the data. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron have both already agreed that French specialists would help decode the black boxes of the plane.

L'articolo Vested Interests in the Investigations of Ukrainian Flight 752 proviene da InsideOver.

Iran confirmed Saturday what most of the world already speculated to be true – it accidentally shot down a civilian aircraft, killing all 176 passengers. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said as much in a rare television broadcast and Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, also offered the same message.

“I wished I were dead,” Hajizadeh said, taking responsibility for the human error that led to Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 (Flight No. PS752).

Rouhani added, “The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake. My thoughts and prayers go to all the mourning families. I offer my sincerest condolences.”

Admittance and Apology

The admittance came after a video was uploaded by Sky News, which reportedly recorded the moment a missile struck the craft. Iranian authorities initially denied involvement in the attack as officials from both Tehran and Kyiv hurried to explain what happened. Earlier reports, including from the Ukrainian embassy in Iran, cited an engine failure as the reason for the crash, however the aircraft, a Boeing 737-800, is a historically safe model. 

Since its introduction in 1998, the Aviation Safety Network recorded only six prior accidents with more than one fatality. According to the ASN, none of those events were caused by mechanical failure and human error was attributed to all of them. 

The accidental downing of PS752 came at a time when Iran could not afford an international mishap. Onboard were 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, 3 UK citizens, and 3 Germans, according to Canadian-based CBC. 

For a Moment, There was Piece

The immediate affect, and also the most difficult for Tehran to overcome, is wasting of goodwill it had built up during its reaction after the US killed its top general, Qassim Suleimani. After US President Donald Trump decided to assassinate Suleimani, Iran could have responded with a proprotional attack, but instead it lobbed missiles at a US base in Iraq, missiles that did not kill or wound any American soldiers.

Both Trump and Rouhani agreed to put the hostilities behind them and work toward peace as the international community breathed a collective sigh of relief. It was commendable for both parties, even if the situation was manifested by Trump and unwarranted.

For a brief moment in time, the world had reason to appreciate efforts made by Tehran to ensure peace. Although Trump announced he would levy more sanctions on Tehran, the fact is that very few products and officials were not already under some sort of sanction already. If sanctions were the worst to come from the debacle, it would seem far from the predictions of World War Three. 

That changed with the downing of the Ukrainian flight. Canada – and the world – have demanded answers. Rouhani pledged the investigation, still in its infancy, would be carried out, possibly with help from Russia, Canada, France, or Ukraine. Such an undertaking could take 1 to 2 years, as is normal after such an event. 

Rouhani’s Job on the Line

Domestically, protests against Rouhani’s government have reportedly continued after pausing for the mourning of Suleimani. The Times of Israel posted videos and tweets that were shared on social media following the PS752 accident. 

Some Iranians rallied against the dictatorship of Rouhani for a litany of reasons, PS752 included. Others expressed outrage that the tragedy ruined Tehran’s ability to retaliate for Suleimani. 

“You took your revenge from Iranians,” Ahmad Batebi tweeted.

Rouhani’s task has grown incalculably more difficult with the downing of the Ukrainian commercial flight. In 2 weeks, he has gone from dealing with the US-Iran crisis and squashing economic-centered protests, to threats of a new war, to defending both his party and position. 

L'articolo Iran Confirms Downing of Ukrainian Flight proviene da InsideOver.