The United Arab Emirates have changed their region with a course of determined modernization and are becoming a prime example of a better, more peaceful Middle East.

The UAE: an Oasis of Calm in a Troubled Region

In an Arab world torn by war and conflict, the United Arab Emirates is one of the few bright spots. The federation, which was only founded in 1971, is built on a promise of prosperity, good governance, and more social freedoms — if not political freedoms — than in most other Arab states.

Simply put, the United Arab Emirates promises a future. The old Arab states, on the other hand, live from the nostalgia of past greatness. The UAE is now rightfully considered the most influential Arab state by many analysts.

Embracing Constant Change

The UAE is continually changing. The latter is a must. To maintain the order of autocratic rulers, constant change is required. Most recently, the country gave up a decades-long Arab blockade against Israel and, on August 13, declared that they would establish diplomatic relations with the state. For years they had forged closer relationships  and showed no reservations and the Abraham Accord just made it official.

In 2009, for example, the “International Renewable Energy Organization” (Irena) was founded in Abu Dhabi, knowing full well that Israeli ministers would now visit the Emirates regularly and the flag with the Star of David would be placed on conference tables — utterly unthinkable in the majority of the other Arabs States.

Moreover, the secret services and the fight against COVID-19 have also allowed numerous avenues of cooperation between the two states over the past years.

Key Dates in Recent UAE History

Two dates, in particular, shape the United Arab Emirates. The attacks of September 11, 2001 were a wake-up call for the leadership of the Emirates, and they quickly learned two lessons from them. On the one hand, religion was supposed to be more than merely a private matter; on the other hand, it was essential to create a modern, attractive state that would prevent any belief in an allegedly superior and extremist Islamic state from emerging.

Good governance and small government have so far been part of Dubai’s success story and women have been explicitly promoted to advance gender rights.

The second turning point was in 2013. In Egypt, President Husni Mubarak, a friend of the Emiratis, was overthrown, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s Muhammad Morsi was made into the new president. However, above all, Muhammad Bin Zayed and the Emiratis see the Muslim Brotherhood as an existential threat and decided to take the reorganization of the near and Middle East into their own hands.

With their petrodollars and their media, they were the decisive force behind Morsi’s overthrow and the installation of President Abd al Fattah al Sisi. Following this, bin Zayed’s government also got involved in Libya, Somalia, and Yemen.

Using the Power of Oil and Military Might

The UAE’s vast oil reserves are the first requirement for their regional power expansion. A tenth of the world’s oil reserves lies under the soil of the Emirates. The second prerequisite for this was that in 2009 bin Zayed commissioned elite Australian special forces soldier Michael Hindmarsh to rebuild the Emirati armed forces. Together with modern American weapons, they quickly became the most powerful army in the Arab world.

The Iran Nuclear Deal

Then the hour came when President Barack Obama had the nuclear deal negotiated with Iran in 2015. Emirati confidence in the United States melted.

Bin Zayed now made an increasingly independent foreign and security policy, which he coordinated less and less with Washington, but instead with the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. In relation to Iran, the Crown Prince from Abu Dhabi follows a softer line than America and Saudi Arabia since the Emirates would be an easy target for Iran, and they profit from trade with Iran. He made peace with Syria because he prefers Assad as ruler to a possible rule by Islamist rebels.

Not everything that bin Zayed initiated was crowned with success: the boycott did not bring Qatar to its knees; he hastily withdrew the Emirates from the war in Yemen, in which there can be no military victor; and in Libya, the rebel general Khalifa Haftar did not live up to the hopes placed in him. Still, he has shown remarkable success in leading the UAE into the future.

With the official recognition of Israel, the Emirates and Crown Prince bin Zayed have now underscored their claim to be the preeminent leader and pioneer of the Arab world.

L'articolo The United Arabic Emirates: a Role Model for the Whole Region proviene da InsideOver.

This year hasn’t really been a great year for anyone, but for Tehran it has been extraordinarily bad. Beginning with the assassination of top General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the powerful revolutionary guards, followed by an initial surge in coronavirus cases and then the second wave, the Islamic Republic is under pressure from all sides — geopolitical, economic, health — with an aggressive Washington trying to force it into submission. 

Iran’s Nightmare Scenario: Arab States Allying with Israel

It was in this context the latest agreement known as the Abraham Accord arrived, normalizing diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Unsurprisingly, it was brokered by the US. Of late, Abu Dhabi and other Gulf capitals have become increasingly inclined to partner up with the Jewish state as a means of containing Iran’s regional influence. 

The Abraham Accord was just the beginning. Reports began emerging in the media of other countries in the region soon normalizing relations with Israel. To lobby for that cause, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo embarked on his Middle East tour from Aug 23 to 27, beginning with Jerusalem where in a presser with Netanyahu, Iran was referenced for its “malicious influence”. 

“This is the alliance of the moderates against the radicals, against the – those who use violence and aggression to further their aims against those who believe that we can offer a better people – a better future for our people through cooperation,” the Israeli Prime Minister said of his latest partnership, while taking a clear dig at Iran. 

Pompeo’s Alliance-Building Efforts

In addition to meeting his Emirati counterpart, Pompeo also held discussions with leaders of Sudan, Bahrain and Oman to further rally his cause. Confronting Iran was at the crux of the talks, as the Sunni majority countries in the region feel insecure about Iran’s growing sphere of influence. At the same time, the Trump administration kept the pressure up on the Islamic Republic by trying to trigger snapback sanctions against Tehran, even though the US has already pulled out of the JCPOA. 

While Iran had kept calm as far as the reshaping of regional alliances was concerned, the threat of sanctions did rile it up. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote a 29-page letter to the UN Secretary General, affirming his country’s position that the US has no right to trigger the mechanism given that it withdrew from the nuclear deal. 

“US justifications for its self-abrogated right to the “reapplication of the provisions of terminated resolutions” on Iran have no credibility or legitimacy, and need to be rejected by the Council,” the document read. 

The Current Situation

Washington’s obsession is in trying to corner Tehran could have serious consequences with respect to the country’s nuclear weapons program, as it has previously hinted at enriching uranium. But for now, the United Nations has rejected the US bid and Iran has also been fairly cooperative. In fact, just on August 26, it agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to two sites suspected of carrying out illicit work in the past. 

For now, even the US efforts regarding fresh diplomatic alliances in the region seem to be unsuccessful as Bahrain emphasized its commitment to the Arab Peace of Initiative of 2002 and refused to recognize Israel until there is a solution for Palestinian statehood.

Sudan too excused itself from any such deal with Israel, saying the issue is beyond the mandate of the current transitional government. How permanent their stances are going to be is anyone’s guess since Washington wouldn’t want to throw away the momentum it has already gained.

Until then, Iran hangs on, dodging bullets shot its way while exercising as much restraint as possible.

L'articolo Iran in a Tough Spot as US Cranks Up Diplomatic Pressure proviene da InsideOver.

Palestinians had seen it coming for years. The deal which the United Arab Emirates recently signed with Israel not only renders Palestinians hopeless but also makes them even more unaware of what the future might hold for them. But that is just one side of the story.

The “stab in the back” which Palestinians say has crushed their hopes of getting a fair response from the Arab world has many facets. Both regional powerhouses penned an agreement on August 13, paving the way for the normalization of diplomatic ties. After Egypt’s 1979 Peace Treaty and Jordan’s 1994 Agreement, the UAE has become only the 3rd Arab state to normalize ties with Israel.

How Was the Deal Made?

The deal was in the workings for years. Officials involved in the formulation of the agreement known as the Abraham Accord, say cohesion between both sides started picking up pace in February last year during the Mideast Conference in Poland. The main idea behind this deal in the long-run is to strengthen the UAE in terms of security to fight the battle along with ally Saudi Arabia against Iran’s regional influence.

The immediate propositions of this pact will see bilateral direct flights, scientific cooperation, and the establishment of concrete business ties. According to the UAE government, the deal will halt Israel’s annexation plans for parts of the West Bank and will give both sides a chance to negotiate a renewed peace plan.

But one might wonder how efficient these plans actually are?

Israel has shown little to no interest in harmonizing relations. Attacks are still being conducted on a daily basis, the United States embassy was also moved to Jerusalem last year and the Peace Plan was rejected by Palestinians as being “one-sided.” This time around, even the Muslim world remains divided over the stance taken by the UAE.

On one side are countries like Jordan and Egypt which have hailed the deal as a stepping stone to bring peace for the Palestinian cause. On the other, are allies Turkey and Iran which have strongly rejected the deal, saying the UAE has betrayed the Palestinian cause by siding with the Israelis.

International Response to the Abraham Accord

Let’s take a look at how exactly the Muslim world has responded to this political change. To get a better picture let’s divide them into two groups; Pro-deal and Anti-deal groups. Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Oman along with some European countries are the ones who have applauded the deal. Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Pakistan, Malaysia and Kuwait are the ones which have strongly criticized the deal.

Jordan and Egypt released a statement following the confirmation of the normalization of ties. Egyptian President Sisi welcomed the deal, saying it would help bring peace to the Middle East. Jordan’s Foreign Minister Safadi also lauded the agreement saying the deal was an incentive to end occupation once and for all.

Spain, Germany, France and the United Kingdom have also appreciated the effort made by both sides with all agreeing that if the deal is put through, there could be a much more peaceful Middle East which in turn will enable peace between Israel and Palestine once and for all.

Turkey on the other hand said the UAE was playing a dangerous role and President Recep Erdoğan even threatened to call his ambassador back to Ankara from Abu Dhabi. It added that the UAE must remain committed to the 2002 Arab Peace Plan developed by the Arab league. Iran, which is also considered to be a pivotal actor in the deal, termed the move “strategic stupidity.” While Oman backed the normalization of ties between both sides, Morocco released a statement with Prime Minister El Othmani saying that the rights of the Palestinians are a “red line” for his government.

Non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah have also denounced the deal saying it will further increase tensions and bloodshed in Palestine. Pakistan and Qatar have also strongly rejected the deal with the Pakistani government saying it will respond according to the conditions of the Palestinians and how well they are treated by the accord. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry also added that Palestinians must be given their full legitimate rights and the right to self-determination.

What Does the Future Hold for the Volatile Region?

While it’s apparent that the West has welcomed this deal between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv, they might have, in one way or the other, overlooked the real components of this deal. I believe that if the deal is actually to improve the living conditions of Palestinians, to stop annexation and to bring peace and stability in the region, both sides must work hard to achieve that. If the UAE is gaining better diplomatic relations and transfer of resources, then it should also comply with the peace plan and make sure to secure rights of Palestinians in order to legitimize Palestinians and secure a better future for them.

L'articolo Is the UAE-Israel Deal an Actual ‘Stab in the Back’ for Palestinians? proviene da InsideOver.

This has been a busy year politically for the Middle East, with quite a few “groundbreaking” agreements and plans unveiled if you are to believe the Trump administration. From the supposed “Deal of the Century” in January that virtually endorsed the Netanyahu government’s annexation ambitions on Palestinian territories to the recently signed pact that establishes diplomatic ties between Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem, history is apparently being made rather frequently.

Or maybe the standards have been set far too low.

The UAE-Israel Abraham Accord

The deal between the Jewish state and the oil-rich Gulf monarchy is the latest instance of an increasing acceptance of Israel among Arab countries. The Abraham Accord, as it is being called, will establish business, tourism and direct flights between the two nations. 

Trying to save face among Muslims and Arabs, the UAE branded this move as some sort of bargain it struck to stop the Israeli expansion plans. However, soon after Anwar Gargash, the UAE minister of state for foreign affairs, called it “a stoppage of the annexation, not a suspension.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu said he had only “delayed” enlarging Israel’s border, which is still “on the table”. However anyone frames it, there’s no secret the deal at the heart is about containing Tehran, a goal for which Abu Dhabi is willing to go anywhere, including cutting a deal with Israel and betraying the Palestinian cause. 

The Accord Had Been in the Works for a Long Time

Obviously no one is going to buy that narrative since the move had been a long time coming. The two sides had stepped up engagement over the last decade, including meetings between ambassadors and foreign ministers usually in the United States, secret cooperation to counter Iran and even an invitation to Israel to participate in the Dubai 2020 World Expo (now delayed to 2021).

The pressing question is what’s to come for the Palestinian people who have been denied most rights for far too long. With powerful Muslim states getting cozy with Israel turn by turn, without really making any concrete efforts for their brethren, it is indeed a blow but not a new one. After all, they are used to it. Egypt, after years of wars, gave up in 1978 while Jordan made peace in 1994. 

More Gulf Nations Set to Sign Deal with Israel?

Two other Gulf states might follow suit soon. In fact, just on Aug 17, Israeli foreign minister had a call with his Omani counterpart (who was however replaced just a day after in a cabinet reshuffle) regarding strengthening of bilateral ties. 

Saudi Arabia also broke the silence a day ago as the kingdom’s foreign minister ruled out a deal with Israel unless a Palestinian accord has been reached. Despite the kingdom’s own stance on the Jewish state softening over the years, the statement has some symbolic value, given the country hosts Islam’s two holiest sites. 

Meanwhile Turkey, which is increasingly positioning itself to become the leading, or even the sole, voice of the global Muslim community and its issues under Erdogan, threatened to severe ties with UAE. But more than showing solidarity with Palestine and a hardline stance, it represented sheer hypocrisy as Ankara has had strong diplomatic ties with Israel for much of its history. 

Iran, for its part, also registered a strong reaction as far as words are concerned. The question is whether it will have any real impact on the country’s foreign policy, the possibility of which is quite remote. Tehran doesn’t really have the strongest relationships in the region and thanks to the burden of sanctions, it’s not in the best position to cut ties with UAE, which is not only its second largest trading partner but also serves as a transition port to sell its goods abroad. 

The Palestinian Perspective

To Palestinians though, these deals represent little meaning or change in their plight. This was clear from Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas’s statement, who was reported as saying: “We aren’t worried about the nonsense that happens here and there and especially in recent days, when a trilateral agreement between the Emirates, Israel and America was announced.”  

One can maybe hope that things would at least slow down if the Trump administration — which gave a free pass to Israel to do whatever it wants — is gone. But expecting a drastic change would be living in a fool’s paradise. Just a simple look at Biden’s manifesto gives a telling picture as it mentions “settlement” only once while “occupation” is nowhere to be found. On the other hand, the text emphasizes the rejection of the Boycott Divestment Sanctions (BDS) movement, or sustaining “our unbreakable commitment to Israel’s security” among other things. However, Palestinians have long known that it doesn’t matter to their cause which party has its representative in the White House. 

For a long time now the international community tried to sell the two-state solution, even as it turned a blind eye to illegal Israeli settlements. Perhaps this latest development would deal a final blow to any optimist who thought both things can be simultaneously achieved and the world can finally approach the issue as it is: the relationship between the occupier and the occupied.  

L'articolo Understanding the UAE-Israel Deal and Pan-Islamic Politics proviene da InsideOver.