More Turkish army servicemen have fallen in Idlib over the past few days as fighting intensified in the border province following the Syrian army’s recapturing of the strategic town of Saraqib along with a few other villages earlier in the week. Turkish jets have reportedly shot down 3 Syrian fighters, while over 15 state-of-the-art Turkish attack drones were shot down by Syrian air defence units so far. More importantly though, at least 4 Turkish army soldiers were captured and over 67 others were killed in heavy close-range clashes between the Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters on one side and the Turkish army, al Nusra terrorists and other pro-Ankara militants on the other.

The Battle for Saraqib

Hezbollah had publicly confirmed the death of 7 of his fighters in a Turkish drone attack in Idlib during the battle for control of Saraqib which straddles both the M 5 and M4 highways linking Aleppo to the capital Damascus and the Mediterranean port city of Latakia, respectively. Erdogan’s unwavering barrage of threats prior to the important summit this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin to work out an exit of the Idlib dilemma, appear to have done very little to silence the raging guns or minimize Ankara’s heavy losses in the battlefield.

All eyes are now focused on the Russian-Turkish urgent summit planned for tomorrow, and much is hinged on the outcome of the meeting, given the failure of at least 2 previous military and security meetings in Ankara and Moscow between the two sides.

New UN Accusations Haunt Erdogan’s Proxy Militias in Syria

As Erdogan’s Idlib adventure sinks his army deeper into the Syrian quagmire, with heavy personnel and equipment losses, a new UN accusation of war crimes committed in the country by Ankara’s militia, the SNA (Syrian National Army) occupying sways of land in mainly Kurdish-controlled areas in the northern parts of Syria have surfaced this week. Matters were made even worse by Erdogan’s extremist militias fighting in Idlib, when footage of the terrorists beheading of at least 2 Syrian army soldiers ran wild on social media outlets, as well as ISIS terrorists’ badges appearing on the uniform of some proxy fighters crossing the border in Turkish military vehicles alongside Turkish soldiers.

The UN’s Special Investigative Committee in Syria claimed in a statement that the Turkish military operation in northern Syria ( launched last October under code named ‘Peace Spring’) has exacerbated the humanitarian disaster for many Syrians, and that “Ankara should bear full responsibility for war crimes perpetrated by its proxy militias”, Committee member Hani al Majali said Monday.” The Committee has strong reasons to believe that the pro-Turkish SNA militia has committed war crimes in Syria”, Majali added.

The UN Committee’s report concluded that ” should any individuals or group (that committed the reported war crimes) have done so under the supervision or leadership of Turkish forces, side criminal charges might be filed against those commanders”. The UN report also blamed the Trump administration’s decision, last October, to withdraw US forces from the area, thus increasing the number of refugees and making living conditions for those living in Kurdish-run areas, much worse.

Things got even more embarrassing for Erdogan when the Saudi terrorist leader and mentor of jihadists in Idlib, Abdullah al Muheisni appeared in a televised speech that was carried on all pro-Erdogan channels, media outlets and social media sites. Muheisni appealed to Erdogan personally: “You, the grandchildren of the Ottomans, are closest to them, (Syrians in Idlib), so answer their call.” Muheisni is a widely considered the most powerful, influential and wanted figure among extremist terror groups currently operating in Idlib.

Will Ankara Be Left Alone to Fight the Idlib Battle?

NATO is distancing itself from Erdogan’s Idlib operation, now codenamed ‘Spring Shield’, refusing to provide him with Patriot missile systems, and a fragmented internal Turkish front, given the strong opposition of the Turkish military effort in Syria by secular GHP (People’s Republican Party established by Ataturk himself in 1923), and now the right wing MHP, (National Movement Party) warning that losing the Idlib battle will end up by the Syrian army retaking the entire Iskenderun province – snatched by Turkey in 1939 in a deal with colonial France-stretching over 4800 square kilometers.

With all that in mind, let alone the rising economic, political and human cost of the war effort, will Erdogan be left alone to fight the Idlib battle, in which his defeat could spell his own and his AK party’s end once and for all? After all, Turkey is fighting a war of its own, outside its borders, an invading army on the offensive, not under attack within its own borders. Is Idlib strategically worth such cost and risk, and why? Has someone, in the West or in the East, pushed Erdogan into a trap similar to that set for (late Iraqi president) Saddam Hussein when he was encouraged to invade Kuwait in 1990? So many questions need to be answered, and the next few weeks might provide just that.

L'articolo UN Accuses Erdogan’s Militants of War Crimes in Syria proviene da InsideOver.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated his intention to provide military support to Libya’s recognized government in his latest attempt for increased geopolitical relevance and projection of Turkish power. In order to facilitate the deployment of Turkish troops, Erdogan will request the Turkish parliament to vote on the plan early next month. The corresponding law will likely be submitted by the beginning of January Erdogan confirmed in a speech to representatives of his party AKP.

Turkey’s Libya Deployment Timeline

Erdogan stated that “based on the security and military cooperation memorandum, once Parliament opens the first thing we will do is to submit a resolution on the deployment of soldiers.” Specifically, the resolution authorizing deployment to Libya is expected to be passed on January 8 or 9.

Moving forward, Turkey would go to places where it was invited but never anywhere where it was not wanted, Erdogan continued. The latter is his rationale for his Lybia plans, as Libya’s GNA government has invited Ankara to intervene and requested it. It’s an invitation that Erdogan is more than willing to accept. In fact, Turkey will provide the Tripoli government with “any kind of support against a coup-planning general backed by several European and Arab countries,” Erdogan said, adding that “we stand alongside Libya’s legitimate government.” The legitimization of the current government, however, remains a conundrum among the international community.

Libya’s Bloody Civil War

Libya has been suffering from a civil war since 2014. Erdogan already agreed on Sunday to provide more military support to the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, and to examine the possibilities of deploying boots on the ground, as well as air force and navy assets. At this stage, it is hard to predict what type of troops Erdogan will ultimately send. However, as NATO’s biggest army other than the US, Erdogan certainly has several options to explore.

Turkey and the al-Sarraj government in Libya had already concluded on a comprehensive security and military cooperation agreement, which allows Turkey to send military trainers and advisers. The Turkish government also has authorization for joint military exercises and may send weapons and military vehicles to Libya on request. Moreover, Turkey has pledged to help build a protection force to undertake police and military duties. In order to deploy combat troops, Erdoğan’s government requires separate parliamentary approval. The latter can be seen as a pure formality, however, as Erdogan’s AKP and his coalition partner, the MHP command a majority in the Turkish parliament.

Turkish Deployment Could Lead To An All-Out Proxy War In Libya

Nonetheless, Turkey’s increased involvement will likely further complicate the current situation in Libya with the fear of an actual proxy war becoming conceivable. The UN-recognized al-Sarraj GNA government and the powerful opposition Libyan National Army (LNA) forces commanded by dual American-Libyan citizen, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, have been competing for power since the overthrow of Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. Haftar’s Libyan National Army has been trying to capture the capital, Tripoli, since April. According to the UN, more than 280 civilians have been killed and more than 140,000 people displaced since Haftar’s offensive began eight months ago.

Amongst as-Sarraj’s primary supporters are Turkey, Qatar, and Italy. On the other side, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE have been supporting Haftar. Meanwhile, Russia, which also supports Haftar in Libya, has expressed concern about Turkey’s possible involvement. A delegation from the Turkish government traveled to Moscow on Monday to speak to Russian diplomats about Libya and Syria. The latter demonstrates Turkey’s status as an opportunistic power, as Ankara has been increasingly fraternizing with Russia in recent times, a development that is seen highly negatively in the West. The move now appears to be solely in Turkey’s interest.

L'articolo A New Proxy War? Turkey Plans to Deploy Troops to Libya proviene da InsideOver.

US troops guarding al Omar oilfield near Deir Ezzour, Syria’s largest oil installation in the northeastern province came under attack for the first time since President Donald J Trump announced that the United States was “keeping Syria’s oil” following his administration’s controversial decision to pull out most US troops from Syria in October; a decision that was viewed by many as a green light for the Turkish military offensive against Syrian Kurds in the northeastern parts of the country despite wide international outrage and condemnation.

No faction or force has claimed responsibility for Thursday’s four-pronged attack which targeted and destroyed some oil-plundering tanker trucks and at least one US military vehicle at the oilfield, and no official announcement of casualties among American soldiers or their proxy oil transporters has been confirmed. The significance of the attack lies in the fact that it took place soon after Syrian President Bashar al Assad had made it clear that there will be a popular resistance to the presence of US or any uninvited foreign troops in Syria, and his reiteration that “every single inch of Syrian territories shall be liberated”. Trump’s October 6 withdrawal move from Syria has shocked US Kurdish allies who felt abandoned and left in the open to face the advancing Turkish army and its overwhelming military power and drew wide international outcry as well as severe bipartisan criticisms within the USA itself.

Soon, Trump – already under mounting pressure stemming from impeachment procedures and corruption charges and suspicious communications with Russia and the Ukraine – attempted to make amends with his critics by declaring the Syrian oil feat and pressurizing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to curtail his military offensive against Syrian Kurds, with a “carrot and stick” approach. The latest attack on US oil-guardians in Syria is bound to put Trump under more pressure, given the unabated political campaign both against his characteristics as well as his problematic foreign policies. Trump’s image was severely tarnished last week after leaked footage showed leaders of Britain, France and Canada mocking him at a dinner hosted by the Queen on the margin of NATO summit in London. Trump was so outraged as the video went viral on social media that he cancelled a planned press conference and left London unceremoniously, it was reported.

How secure for Trump is Syria’s “secured’ oil”?

Thursday’s attack on US troops at al Omar oilfield and tankers smuggling Syrian oil into Iraq and Turkey followed an air raid earlier last week by Syrian and possibly Russian jets which destroyed a convoy of oil tanker trucks in the northeastern parts of Syria, put into question Trump’s claims that he had “secured” Syria’s oil. “We’ve secured the oil and, therefore, a small number of US troops will remain in the area where they have the oil,” Trump said during an Oct. 23 press conference. “And we’re going to be protecting it, and we’ll be deciding what we’re going to do with it in the future.”

Once again, Trump falters on his promises to the Americans and their allies in the region. US troops at the oilfield that came targeted from four directions are reported to have used all available firepower at their disposal to foil the attack but to no avail. Many Syrian and regional observers believe that Thursday’s daring attack was a clear message to Trump, his allies and proxy oil plunderers, and most likely just “the tip of the iceberg” of what lies ahead for US troops in Syria. The trap of “oil for blood” equation many American have warned against falling into in Syria, seems to have become a painful reality for the snookered Trump administration, with problems creeping in from every nook and cranny; Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Kurdish allies, Turkey and NATO to name a few.

A mini oil war looms in the Syrian offing

Syria’s oil production has plummeted by approximately 90% as a result of the nine-year conflict aggravated by a stringent chain of US-led sanctions against the country. Before the conflict that broke out in March 2011, the country used to produce 385.000 barrels of oil per day. The figure went as low as 14.000 BPD at the worst stage in the war. Although the oil and gas sector has made a humble recovery in recent months following the recovery by the Syrian army and its allies of vast sways of land that had been for years out of government control, much is needed for this vital factor to become fully functional.

The Syrian government has resorted to some drastic austerity measures in recent years and has been importing much of its oil and gas from Iran, Iraq and Algeria to make up for its plundered wealth. The war-torn nation and its badly damaged economy badly need oil and gas resources to maintain the minimum required economic as well as social stability and growth, and can’t afford to leave this essential wealth at the mercy of the Americans or any other foreign power forever. By hook or by crook, through diplomatic means and deals, or armed resistance to make good on its promise to protect its land and natural resources against foreign occupiers and plunderers alike. Thursday’s offensive on US troops and tanker trucks in northeastern Syria could trigger and signal a mini oil war or resistance movement to the American presence and looting the country’s oil in the days ahead.

L'articolo US Troops Guarding Syria’s Biggest Oilfield Under Attack proviene da InsideOver.

In the span of a few months, Iraq has gone from an optimistic state that had won its war against ISIS to a protest-filled nation confronting the possibility of the terror group’s return.

“Iraq has not learned the lesson from ISIS,” said Hisham al-Hashimi, Iraqi expert on ISIS in March. “Especially when it comes to co-existing and civil security, accepting others and apologizing to others, the same reasons that made ISIS a state are still there and growing.”

That statement, made after Baghdad was liberated and life had returned to the city streets, seems particularly ominous now as the terror group rebuilds in a northern valley of Iraq, outside of government control. 

“As we approach politics, its a most serious challenge, the terrorist challenge, I want to point out that Iraqi political life is at a stage of transformation in which victory over terrorism and violence must be strengthened by further reforms and actions that would make it a decisive victory,” said Iraqi President Barham Salih in March.

Since that time, protestors have rallied against poor economic conditions, alleged foreign interference from Iran, and charges of corruption. Demonstrations, now in their second month, have proved the reforms Salih spoke of were merely words and the resurgence of the terror group indicates his administration is incapable of fulfilling the ultimate goal of reshaping the Iraqi government to prevent its return to relevance in his state. 

Resurgence

The failure of the Iraqi government is coupled with the recent Turkish invasion into northern Syria during which an unknown number of ISIS prisoners escaped. Both the military incursion and liberation of imprisoned fighters have caused terrorists to cross into Iraq. The new ISIS home, in a valley between land controlled by the Kurdish and Iraqi Army on both sides, is not patrolled by either faction. 

“They have some tunnels, they have some caves,” said Gen. Sirwan Barzani, commander of the Kurdish peshmerga forces. “And they are moving — especially at night.” 

Kurdish estimates peg the terrorist group at only a couple hundred strong, presently, but that could be enough to spark a resurgence according to Barzani. 

“You can say they are [in] exactly the same situation of ISIS in 2012 in Iraq,” he said. “It’s the same situation there now. They are starting to reorganize themselves.”

The group’s return to power was predicted in a report from the US military in February, which gave a timeline estimate of six to 12 months, barring “sustained pressure” on the militants. 

International Response

The international community is placing blame on the Turkish military incursion into Syria and French President Emmanuel Macron was adamant that Ankara stop the operation. On his behalf, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian met with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi on Oct. 16. The takeaway from the meeting was that the focus should be on limiting the fallout from Turkey’s role in Syria and the spread of ISIS fighters from the country. 

“Concerning the situation in Syria, there was extensive and wide discussions on what the two countries could do considering that France is a main partner in the International Coalition [against ISIS],” Iraq’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed Ali Hakeem said at a joint press conference with Le Drian following their meeting. 

“We were partners in the fight against ISIS, and we have to be partners in the rebuilding phase and the new danger due to Turkey’s incursion into north and northeastern Syria,” Le Drian added. 

He called for an International Coalition meeting on the issue in light of the dangers posed by a possible resurgence. For Iraq, more immediate concerns about protests are taking precedence, however. 

“Iraq shows all too many signs of returning to the kind of internal instability that led to low-level civil war in 2011 and the rise of (Islamic State),” says Anthony Cordesman, analyst for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, “and that undercuts any efforts to bring stability and defeat extremism”.

Salih is preparing to announce an electoral reform law and will likely call new elections, but few have high hopes for the outcome and protests are likely to continue. 

L'articolo ISIS rebuilding in Iraqi valley proviene da InsideOver.