Turkey is one of the countries that benefited the most from Ukraine’s Euromaidan. Since 2014 it has been working hard on turning a geopolitically ambitious and groundbreaking goal into reality: to make Ukraine part of the Eurasia-extended Turkish world.

The accomplishment of this historical task has been made easier by Russia’s forced withdrawal from the country, both politically and culturally, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pursuing a dual-sided strategy to make it happen: the building of a strategic partnership with Ukraine and strong attention devoted to the Tatar question.

Turkey is Against the FSB-Run War on Islamists

Turkey has never recognized the Crimean peninsula’s new Russian status quo and it is very unlikely to have a change of mind in the next future because of an ensemble of reasons, among them the country’s geopolitical alignment, the fear of a Crimea-like scenario within its own borders caused by the Kurdish guerrilla, and lastly the pan-Turkic agenda.

The last point has been prompting Turkey to significantly increase its presence in Ukraine’s internal affairs with the goal of constructing an informal protectorate over the little-but-influential Tatar community, which is the keystone for the control over the country and for the possible turning of Crimea into a Chechnya-like insurrection-plagued zone.

Turkey’s Latest Move on Crimea

The Turkish government’s latest move is the public condemnation of the Fsb-run war on Islamists in the peninsula, that is the war on a terrorist group known as Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT). The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on August 31, voicing concern “about the raids and detentions taking place in Crimea”, which are seen by Ankara as the “latest example of systematic oppression and intimidation policies [on the Crimean Tatar population]”.

The statement was referring to the temporary detention of four Tatars as part of a terrorism and extremism-related investigation. The suspects were taken into custody in the early hours of August 31 and were released by that night. It was a hours-long normal police procedure, as it happens in every country, but it was depicted by Ukraine and Turkey as illegal and as the example of the alleged persecution against the Tatars.

It can be read that “Turkey will continue to stand by its kinsmen, Crimean Tatars, who have been defending their rights and interests by peaceful means and trying to make their voices heard through democratic methods.”

These words prove one fact: Turkey is actively supporting the Tatar underground opposition and has ceased long time ago to limit its solidarity to the verbal sphere.

What is Going on in Crimea?

The very existence of HT threatens Crimea’s security and territorial integrity. It is a foreign-funded caliphate-seeking Sunni fundamentalist organisation whose activities are completely legal and free in many Western countries – but they have been outlawed in the post-Soviet space and in a large part of Asia. Due to its perfectly legal status, HT has been using Ukraine and Turkey as operational bases from which to coordinate the efforts against Crimea and it is infiltrating deep the Tatar expats community and those who are still living in the peninsula.

Despite the outlawing, HT keeps working underground in Russia as shown by the numerous police operations that have taken place over the years. More recently, HT has been accused of plotting terrorist attacks and recruiting foreign fighters to be sent in Syria. It is noteworthy that most of the operations are focused in the Turkic-majority republic of Tatarstan.

FSB Operations in Crimea

As regard to Crimea, several FSB-run operations have been carried out to target the group since the annexation. In 2019 more than 30 Crimean Tatars have been jailed, accused of being HT members and sentenced on terrorism charges. During the raids many weapons were found and seized. This year more than 10 Crimean Tatars have been arrested on the same charges, prompting the Kremlin to start talks at the parliamentary level aimed at strengthening the current national security’s and territorial integrity’s legislation.

Overall, these numbers show that there is the potential for a likely North Caucasus-like insurgency. Indeed, HT’s activism inside the Tatar community is contributing to foster the level of religious radicalization among the minority, whereas the connections with the Jihadist network are making the situation worse.

According to the US-based think tank American Center for Democracy about 100 Crimean Tatars have fought in Syria alongside jihadist-linked anti-Assad rebels, while only in the year 2013 at least 30 joined the Islamic State. It is precisely in Syria that Crimean fighters would have been approached to discuss the opening of a battlefront in the peninsula. The absence of reliable and updated data about this topic makes any estimation difficult, that’s why the FSB seems engaged in a race against time.

Last but not least, it must be emphasized that hundreds of Tatars fled Crimea and Ukraine in order to fight in the Donbass against the pro-Russian rebels and they are known for their closeness to other Muslim-only battalions made up by fighters coming from North Caucasus, many of whom are linked to the jihadist world.

Is Ukraine Headed to the Turkish Sphere?

Apart from the growing conflict in Crimea, Turkey is more and more assertive with and within Ukraine. Many events which took place in the last twelve months suggest that the birthplace of the Russian civilization is becoming part of the Turkic world. The latest news is that the Ukrainian government is interested in joining the Turkic Council, which is Ankara’s main soft-power instrument in the post-Soviet space.

According to Emine Dzheppar, Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Volodymyr Zelensky Government wants to join the entity because “Ukraine is the heir of Turkish culture [and] Crimean Tatars are a bridge between Ukraine and Turkey”. Whereas it’s perfectly understandable the political reason behind the move, which is expected to increase dramatically the quality of Ukrainian-Turkish partnership, Dzheppar’s claim is purely anti-historical and must be read as an identity-washing attempt aiming at rewriting the country’s past, present and future.

The Tatar Revival in Ukraine

Ukraine’s path to the Turkish world is not represented by the mere decision to join the Turkic Council; the 2020 will be remembered as the year of the Tatar revival. In July the Turkish ambassador to Kyiv, Yagmur Ahmet Gulder, declared that Ankara is set to fund the opening of the country-largest mosque in the heart of the Ukrainian capital city. The building is expected to cost $5 million and to have capacity for 5,000 faithful.

In the end, another very important event took place on May 18. Every year on that day the Tatars commemorate the so-called Day of Remembrance of Victims of Crimean Tatars Genocide; for six years now they are no longer alone in the observance of this much-felt date: they are accompanied by Turkish and Ukrainian delegations.

It is no coincidence that Zelensky chose this very important day to announce the birth of a “new Ukraine [in which] anyone may feel citizen”, deciding to start this nation building process by listing in the calendar of public holidays two of the most iconic feasts of Islam: the Feast of the Sacrifice (Eid al-Adha), and the Festival of Breaking the Fast (Eid al-Fitr).

Everything seems to indicate that Turkey is willing to play a major role in the once-homeland of Russian civilization, and if the West would ever green light a destabilization plan aimed at disturbing Russia’s interests in the region, this plan is likely to target the infiltrated and ready-to-explode Crimea.

The FSB-driven war on Islamism must be read for what it truly is: a race against time to prevent a Chechnya-like scenario from taking place in Crimea.

L'articolo Turkey’s Tatar Agenda Explained proviene da InsideOver.

Crimea’s stability is under threat, and the danger is not coming from Ukraine, nor the West, but from the Tatar community. Since the peninsula was annexed to Russia in 2014, the ethnic minority has been showing increasing concern, opposition and criticism against the alleged religiously-motivated persecution campaign launched by local authorities.

Turkey, which has historic hegemonic ambitions over the peninsula, is monitoring the situation very closely, because it is trying to gain greater influence over Turkic peoples. Some factors indicate that Crimea could turn into Russia’s next Islamist hotbed.

The Tatars after the annexation

Tatars, which count for up to 15% of Crimea’s population, did not welcome warmly Russia’s annexation as they still remember a centuries-long mistreatment based on segregation, discrimination and forced population transfers. They largely boycotted the popular referendum held after the occupation to decide the destiny of the peninsula and the vast majority did not renounce to Ukrainian citizenship.

Russian authorities started a crackdown against the minority’s institutions and groups, targeting the main leaders and putting under control mosques and Islamic schools with the alleged goal of fighting political and religious extremism.

More than 20,000 Tatars fled Crimea and found refuge mostly in Ukraine and Turkey because they feared persecution. Some of them were able to escape by belonging to Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT), a London-based religious organisation aiming at uniting Muslims from all over the world into a caliphate and convert non-Muslims through large-scale proselytism. HT operates legally and freely in more than 50 countries, including Ukraine and the United States, but Russia listed it as a terrorist group in 2003.

Despite the outlawing, HT keeps working underground in the country as shown by the numerous police operations that have taken place over the years. More recently, HT has been accused of plotting terrorist attacks and recruiting foreign fighters to be sent in Syria. It is noteworthy that most of the operations are focused in the Turkic-majority republic of Tatarstan.

Since Crimea’s annexation, several FSB-run operations have been carried out to target the group. Only this year, more than 30 Crimean Tatars have been jailed, accused of being HT members and sentenced on terrorism charges. During the raids many weaponswere found and seized.

Furthermore, in 2016 Mejlis, which functioned as the Tatars’ autonomous governing body since the 1990s, was outlawed because it was considered to be an extremist organisation. The body was soon replaced by the Kremlin-controlled Council of the Crimean Tatar People.

But Turkey, Ukraine and the European Union have raised growing concern and have accused Moscow of leading a campaign of repression based on illegal detentions, false charges, disappearances, and social pressure. According to them, the arrested would not be terrorists but political activists whose only fault is to protest against the annexation.

Turkey’s ambitions over Russian Tatars

Turkey is the only Muslim-majority country that has been showing interest in Crimean Tatars and the reasons are both cultural and geopolitical. Tatars are a Turkic ethnic group which was converted to Islam between the 13th and 14th century. Russians conquered the peninsula in 1783, under Catherine II’s imperial expansionist campaign, and overthrew the then-existing Ottoman-controlled Khanate.

Turkey never ceased to pay attention to Crimea, because its control is of critical importance for hegemony over the Black Sea. With the political rise of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, pan-Turkism and neo-Ottomanism have become the leading ideological platforms of the country’s foreign policy and many Russian-owned or -controlled regions are inevitably receiving greater attention.

Ankara focused efforts on the establishment of closer ties with countries hosting large Turkic-speaking peoples, such as the once-Soviet-ruled Turkestan republics, and is trying to pursue the same strategy in Crimea and Tatarstan. The latter is an autonomous republic that is granted the right of having a semi-free foreign policy, but in the recent years such right was limited in light of the growing influence exerted by Turkey through umbrella organizations, such as the International Organization of Turkic Culture, and the radicalization of the Muslim community.

Erdoğan has always declared that he is not going to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea since he considers the annexation as “illegal”, and some days ago discussed the Tatar question with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky during a two-day state visit in Ankara. The Turkish president defined the protection of Crimean Tatars as a priority of his foreign agenda and stressed that the peninsula is their historic homeland. 

The presidents attended the inauguration of the Crimean Tatars’ representative office in Ankara and signed several agreements to strengthen bilateral cooperation – two meaningful messages addressed to Vladimir Putin. A peninsula threatened by a foreign-fostered ethno-religious unrest would be in the interest of both countries since they are looking to outcast Moscow from the Black Sea and the potential for an insurgency is ready to be exploited.

The next jihadist hotbed?

In 2014, Mejlis leader Mustafa Dzhemilev warned that Crimea could be soon affected by Islamist insurgency as he was approached by a number of Tatars interested in fighting through Jihad what they perceived as an illegal occupation. In particular, he was concerned about the increasing influence played by the HT and Wahhabi preachers among Crimean Tatars, that would receive funds from abroad. His claims are supported by two facts; the existence of ascertained ties between local radical Muslims and global terrorist organizations and the online discussions on jihadi forums after the annexation.

Ten years ago, Dzhemilev himself was targeted by Crimea-based radical Muslims because of his activism. An assassination plot was discovered and three people linked to HT were arrested and sentenced. During the house searches the police seized explosives and assault rifles.

According to the US-based think tank American Center for Democracy about 100 Crimean Tatars have fought in Syria alongside jihadi-linked anti-Assad rebels, while only in the year 2013 at least 30 joined the Islamic State. It is precisely in Syria that Crimean fighters would have been approached to discuss the opening of a battlefront in the peninsula.

The post-annexation web monitoring showed that radical Muslims, mostly based in Saudi Arabia, were calling on volunteers to travel to Ukraine and defend the Tatars by using the hashtag #NafirforUkraine. “Nafir” is an Arabic word that Islamist terrorists use as a call to action; its usage was particularly spread and noticed during the early stages of Syrian civil war and experts believe that fostered the arrival of foreign fighters in the country.

The most important reason for which Crimea is likely to become Russia’s next Islamist problem is that all the ingredients for a conflict are present: religious revival, presence of foreign-funded radical preachers, deep-rooted hostility toward Russian rule, increasing social distance between Russians and Tatars, connections with the international Islamist network, rival powers’ interest in exploiting the discontent in order to bring instability. 

L'articolo Why Crimea Could Turn into Russia’s Next Jihadist Hotbed proviene da InsideOver.