Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has appointed Faisal Mekded as his country’s new Foreign Minister, replacing Walid al-Moallem who died almost a week ago, according to Al-Jazeera. 

Mekded has some big shoes to fill as al-Moallem was an adept and stalwart supporter of Assad’s regime. The former foreign minister held his job throughout the last decade, and survived several reshuffles before he died at the age of 79.

The Syrian Government did not specify the cause of al-Moallem’s death, but his health was understood to have been deteriorating for some time.

Mekded is an Experienced Politician

The 66-year-old Mekded also possesses significant political experience. He started his career at the Syrian Foreign Ministry in 1994 and has been deputy foreign minister since 2006.

He shadowed Moallem at most conferences and meetings, and stepped in to make statements when the latter’s health began to deteriorate.

Syria’s new Foreign Minister has an enormous task ahead of him regarding improving his country’s stature in the world. The Syrian Government remains isolated internationally, despite recent attempts to normalize ties with Gulf countries.

Yet the good news for Mekded is that both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain rebuilt their relationships with Syria while Moallem served as the nation’s foreign minister. The UAE reopened its embassy in Damascus in 2018, followed by Bahrain.

Cooperative Opportunities Abound for Mekded

In March, the Syrian President and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan spoke on the phone in March for the first time since the Syrian civil war began in 2011.

As Daniel L. Byman argues for the Brookings Institute, the likelihood is that Syria will remain weak in the near- and mid-term, and probably for another decade. The country is exhausted by civil war and riven by ethnic and communal divisions, its military is paralyzed, and domestic stability will remain the dominant military concern.

The Assad regime does not control the entire country due to interference from foreign powers such as Russia and Iran. These rival states could support warlords or rebel groups against the government to prolong the civil war.

If Mekded is serious about improving Syria’s presence on the regional stage, he should look beyond depending upon Iran for stability. The new Foreign Minister can achieve this aim by uniting Sunnis, Alawites, and others under a common banner: the desire to gradually reduce Tehran’s influence and increase Syria’s self-sufficiency.

Other nations such as Egypt and the UAE may look to strengthen their relationship with Syria as well if Mekded manages to achieve this aim.

Mekded is Unlikely to Improve Syria’s International Reputation

Neighboring states like Jordan fear continued instability in Syria, and Germany’s politicians are facing domestic pressure due to the presence of Syrian refugees in their country. Mekded could bring up the refugee crisis in negotiations, demanding more aid for them should they return, and also pressure for humane treatment for any who return.

Despite this, none of these developments would return Syria to its pre-war status, but they would allow Damascus to increase its autonomy should Mekded choose to adopt these ideas.

Mekded’s Likely Trajectory Going Forward: More of the Same

But considering Mekded has served as Moallem’s deputy for the last decade, the reality is that he will continue with the latter’s legacy. During an interview with the RIA Novosti state news agency in 2018, Mekded revealed that he did not believe that both Russia and Iran were violating Syria’s sovereignty, and that he wanted nations which are opposed to terrorism to remain in the country. Syrian citizens should therefore expect more of the same from their new Foreign Minister.

A new ministerial appointment is always an opportunity for a preexisting government to change its approach to a specific policy, but given Mekded’s track record and loyalty to Moallem and his policies in office, he will probably do nothing to improve Syria’s position on the global stage.

Nonetheless, there are many opportunities Syria can take advantage of, and time will tell whether the new Foreign Minister will exploit them.

L'articolo What Impact Will Syria’s New Foreign Minister Have? proviene da InsideOver.

Aware of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambitions in both Libya and the Middle East, Egypt and its partners have supposedly stepped up their effort to thwart Turkey on the diplomatic front and in Syria and Iraq.

Although the Egyptian Government currently enjoys a constructive relationship with Damascus, Cairo, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also focused on the Syrian Kurds. According to Al-Monitor, Egypt has now sent troops to Idlib, the rebel-held area where Ankara has strengthened its military presence to prevent the Syrian Army from advancing.

Is Egypt Advancing into Syria?

Al-Monitor reports that Kamal Amer, who heads the Egyptian Parliament’s Defense and National Security Committee, denied the report. The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights also stated that its local sources had failed to verify this development.

Regardless of whether these reports are true, it would appear that Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are forming a front to contain the threat that Turkey poses to the Middle East, and it has emerged due to the strained relationship that these three nations have had with Ankara since 2011.

Abu Dhabi and Riyadh both voiced their disapproval at Erdoğan after he declared his support for the Arab Spring of 2011. After Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, was ousted through a military coup led by then Defense Minister Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cairo’s relations with Turkey began to sour.

The Egyptian-Emirati-Saudi Alliance Has Long Been in the Making

Last June, the Emirati ambassador to the US disclosed the UAE’s close cooperation with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) funded by the American billionaire Sheldon Adelson. It has many anti-Turkish sentiments and its chairman, Mark Dubowitz, wrote on Twitter that he wanted the July 2016 coup against Erdoğan to succeed.

Although the Egypt-Emirates-Saudi front’s existence cannot be disputed, the question remains- will it be successful?

The front can serve a useful purpose in counterbalancing the growing interest Turkey has over Syria and Libya. The red line that Egypt has declared at Sirte and al-Jufra in Libya has prevented the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) from advancing further in the war-torn country.

Could an Egypt-Emirates-Saudi Front Succeed?

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan traveled to Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco after a July 27 trip to Egypt, where he reaffirmed Saudi support for Egypt in the Libyan war. This support may be useful to Cairo as the Libyan conflict continues to escalate.

Although the Arab world has not completely resolved its differences with Israel, the Egypt-Emirates-Saudi front earlier this year welcomed US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for the Middle East. The Jerusalem Post reports that the Saudi Foreign Ministry of Affairs called it a ‘comprehensive resolution to the Palestinian cause.’

Meanwhile, Erdoğan denounced the plan due to the impact it could have on Palestine.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE see Iran as the most pressing security challenge and view Israel as a powerful ally in containing Tehran’s regional ambitions. Therefore, the Egyptian-Saudi-Emirates alliance could prevent Jerusalem from being threatened by both Turkey and Iran in the long-term.

Should the US support an Egypt-Emirates-Saudi Front?

The only problem that the Egypt-Emirates-Saudi front has is whether it will enjoy American support in the future. Whilst Trump views Saudi Arabia as a useful ally in his plan to counter the threat Tehran poses to the Middle East, he is also closely aligned to the Turkish President’s views on the GNA.

However, Egypt supports General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA).

Both scenarios have the potential to create a conflict of interest for the Trump administration, and the US President’s support for Erdoğan in Libya could strain his relationship with Saudi Arabia.

The Egypt-Emirates-Saudi front has a lot of potential to contain Turkey, but it would be even stronger if it could depend upon consistent US support. Washington has found itself in a difficult position supporting the GNA in Libya whilst supporting Saudi Arabia’s effort to contain Iran and Turkey elsewhere. It is unclear how the Trump administration can untangle this web and establish a coherent and effective position.

L'articolo Can an Egyptian-Emirati-Saudi Alliance Contain Turkey in the Middle East? proviene da InsideOver.

With the war in Syria decided, a new phase of the conflict has begun: the allocation of spoils. In the middle of it are Iran and Russia. Now, that the war in Syria has been militarily concluded, the actors involved are seeking to convert their successes on the battlefield into political influence and profits during the country’s reconstruction.

Russia’s Efforts

For this purpose, Russian President Vladimir Putin created the post of a special envoy to Syria under his command on May 25 and instructed him to oversee Syrian ruler Bashar al Assad directly. Moreover, the Kremlin instructed the ministers of defense and foreign affairs to negotiate with Damascus — in other words, order it — to secure new military bases, but also economic benefits in Syria in favor of Russia.

Understanding Who Currently Controls Syria

Currently, Syria is divided into four spheres of influence: First, the United States, which is holding its hand over Kurdish self-government in northeastern Syria. Second, Turkey, which is establishing parallel statehood in the northwest of the country. Third, Iran, which controls the region along the Lebanon border, strengthens Hezbollah terrorists and secures the areas around Aleppo that are inhabited by Shiites. Fourth, Russia, which essentially claims the rest of Syria.

The latter makes increased Russian influence for Putin all the more critical since the fight for the distribution of post-war Syria between Russia and Iran has begun. Russia is hence interested in reducing Assad’s scope, particularly when it comes to repaying war debts to Tehran. And not without reason. A member of the Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Policy Committee recently said that Syria should repay Iran “$ 20 to 30 billion” that Tehran reportedly spent to support the Assad regime.

Russia vs. Iran

Accordingly, the main power struggle is occurring between Russia and Iran. It is why Putin currently intends to curtail Iran’s influence in Syria moving forward. Strategically, Russia claims the entire Mediterranean coast of Syria in order to control its ports, from which goods can be delivered to Central Asia. Moscow also plans to operate most of the airports, including those in Qamishli on the border with Turkey, as well as two strategically essential highways, which are expected to generate billions of dollars in tolls each year. Iran, meanwhile, seeks to secure access to the Mediterranean but also plans to advance to the Israeli border in its attempt to destabilize the region further.

Iran Doesn’t Want Peace or Stability in Syria

Moreover, while Russia seeks a stable Syria as a model for its sphere of influence, and is pushing for a reformed Syrian army to counter Iran’s influence, Tehran is not interested in peace, nor in a functioning Syrian state and a Syrian army that can sustain itself. The latter became apparent when Iran and the regime undermined the de-escalation zones and “reconciliation agreements” with which Russia sought to allow some regional autonomy and create order. The project failed, which is one of the reasons for the recent violence and protests in southern Syria, and once again reconfirms Tehran’s status as the region’s primary factor of destabilization.

A New Chapter of the Syrian War

However, Moscow is not only challenging Iran with its plans. Turkey and the USA also continue to play a role. The zones that control Turkey and the United States include the vast oil fields and Syria’s grain chamber. According to the Kremlin’s wishes, both should be in Russian hands in the future. Furthermore, although the United States will probably withdraw its last few troops from Syria — through these plans could change come November — Turkish troops have settled for the long-term in northwestern Syria, much to Putin’s dismay.

And thus, while the war in Syria has been decided, it certainly has not yet ended. The prerogatives are shifting. The humanitarian and geopolitical disaster remain unchanged.

L'articolo Russia and Iran are Conflicted Over Syrian Spoils of War proviene da InsideOver.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sacked Prime Minister Imad Khamis during a time when protesters are demonstrating against Syria’s economic woes. Syria’s state media did not provide a reason for the decision to fire Khamis, but the Prime Minister’s dismissal will have consequences for Assad’s faltering regime regardless.

Furthermore, the Syrian President could not have picked a worse time to dismiss Khamis. Syria has been damaged by numerous factors including nine years of conflict, years of Western sanctions, government infighting and corruption, the coronavirus and an economic downturn worsened by Lebanon’s financial crisis. Fully 80 percent of Syrians are currently living in poverty.

Assad Sacked Khamis at the Worst Time

The Syrian currency dropped to a record 3,500 pounds to the dollar on the black market- compared to 700 at the start of the year.

Rami Makhlouf, Assad’s cousin and the richest businessman in Syria, had his assets seized by the Syrian Government in May due to his ownership of one of the nation’s largest firms called Syriatel. Makhlouf used to bankroll Syria’s infamous security forces who tortured thousands of people during the height of the country’s civil war in 2011. After the Syrian President lost the support of one of the most prominent members of his family, his regime’s legitimacy was further damaged.

US Sanctions on Syria Set to Ramp Up

To add to Assad’s woes, the toughest US sanctions come into effect next week. Washington claims that these sanctions aim to punish the Syrian President and his allies for crimes committed during the nation’s conflict. They prevent anyone from around the globe doing business with Syrian officials and state institutions. They also target anyone involved in smuggling to Syria, mostly from Iraq and Lebanon.

The new law is called the US Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act.

Khamis’s sacking has only made the Syrian President weaker than ever before, though it is not the only factor that has damaged his government over time. The only saving grace that he has is that neither Russia nor Iran are interested in removing him from office for now.

However, in the longer term Moscow and Tehran may carve up Syria between themselves and Turkey. Iran may use the south of the country as a means to threaten Israel, while Russia and Turkey may use the north to resettle refugees. This solution would also be the best way for the three nations to crush the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, but it also proves that Assad is so vulnerable that his fate depends upon Putin.

Assad’s Fate Depends on Putin

Politico’s Charles Lister anticipates that this extraordinary internal crisis could trigger a change at the top. This scenario could happen due to disillusion with the severe poverty crippling Syria and the increasing numbers of people challenging Assad’s regime, but Moscow would need convincing that the Syrian President needs to go due to the leverage the Russians have over Assad’s fate.

It is dangerous for Russia to have so much influence over Damascus, and to make the situation worse China seems to be taking an interest in Syria’s recovery. A warehouse that belongs to Mohammed Jarah and Ahmad Bustati symbolized Beijing’s emergence as the largest supplier of consumer and industrial goods to Syria. The warehouse was stocked with Chinese laser cutting machines.

The US Must Increase Involvement in Syria

The US must shift its priorities toward Syria and take advantage of the Syrian President’s weakened position. The State Department has been consulting with Moscow behind the scenes on a new diplomatic process, and Washington has an opportunity to make clear to the Russians that they can secure some form of power-sharing and a ceasefire to ease the economic costs that maintaining Assad’s regime has on Moscow. By engaging with the Russian Government, political prisoners may be released in the long-term, and the Syrian regime could reform its constitution.

Assad’s weakened position following the sacking of his Prime Minister is an opportunity for America to work with others to bring stability to Syria, which is what is happening in Libya. It is time for Trump to seize his moment.

L'articolo Has Assad’s Sacking of His Prime Minister Made Him Weaker? proviene da InsideOver.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was always able to depend upon the support of his family, and any disputes within his inner circle were hidden from the public. However, that has all changed recently.

Syria’s richest businessman and cousin to the country’s President, Rami Makhlouf, declared at the start of the month that Assad’s regime had seized his assets. Makhlouf has publicly supported his famous relative since Assad became president almost 20 years ago. This represents the latest escalation in a public conflict in the family that has ruled Syria for almost 50 years.

How Makhlouf Became Public Enemy Number One

In recent weeks, Makhlouf has posted a series of videos on social media mocking the regime in which he was a central figure for decades, and he offered a dangerous and unusual public challenge to the Syrian President. He complains that he has been treated in an inhumane way even though he bankrolled Syria’s infamous security forces, who are responsible for torturing thousands of people since the Syrian conflict started in 2011. Robert Ford, who served as the US ambassador to Syria, told Foreign Policy that if Makhlouf was not a member of the Assad family, then he would probably be dead already.

Furthermore, Assad’s cousin said that he will not resign from Syriatel, one of Syria’s largest firms. It was his ownership of this cell network that has likely made him a target of the nation’s regime. The Syrian Government insists that he owes $250 million in taxes; Makhlouf argues that this is a lie being concocted by the security services. Since then, the Syrian Ministry of Justice has imposed a travel ban on him until the case is resolved.

More public statements have emerged since. For example, Firas Tlass, the son of a former defense minister, appeared on Russia Today to confirm that Makhlouf was challenging the President’s wife and brother, Maher.

Assad Has a Lot of Problems to Worry About

Regardless, Syria’s problems cannot be blamed entirely on the President’s family dispute. So far, the nation has experienced 121 confirmed coronavirus cases, with 41 people recovering from the virus. Meanwhile, four people have died from the pandemic. Nonetheless, the Syrian Government still placed the entire country in lockdown.

Even though there are no official figures to reveal the repercussions of the coronavirus on the Syrian economy, the Syrian regime’s reduction of procedures is an obvious sign that the lockdown has severely affected various economic sectors. Enabbaladi reports that Ali Kanaan, the head of the Banking Department at Damascus University, anticipated economic losses in the billions.

Services and shops are now open again and as of April 23, politicians agreed to extend the opening hours of shops until 5pm. The original opening hours were 8.30am to 3pm.

Assad is Safe … For Now

The nine-year Syrian civil war has also had a devastating impact on the economy. Before the coronavirus, the nation’s unemployment rate stood at 8.4 percent. UN statistics reveal that 83 percent of Syrians are living below the poverty line and the coronavirus has made that worse. Many day workers lost their jobs and received no financial support following the imposition of quarantine measures.

Despite this, Assad’s future seems safe for now. The Russians are not interested in regime change because there is no credible alternative to the Syrian President, but the latter’s weakened position means Moscow could carve up Syria with Iran and Turkey. The north of the country could be used by Russia and Turkey to resettle refugees, with Iran using the south as a means to threaten Israel.

Assad is in an unenviable position right now as he has to tackle numerous problems. It is unclear who could replace him, but when a suitable candidate emerges, there is no doubt that the Russians will not waste any time booting the current Syrian President out of office.

L'articolo Assad Has Much More to Worry About Than Family Disputes proviene da InsideOver.