La guerra in Iran sta generando un terremoto energetico che farà presto tremare gran parte dell’Asia. La Cina è soltanto la punta dell’iceberg. Basta dare un’occhiata ai numeri in campo per rendersi conto di quanto potrebbe presto accadere.

Considerando tutti i Paesi coinvolti nel conflitto, o comunque sfiorati dalle tensioni in Medio Oriente, l’Arabia Saudita è il secondo produttore mondiale di petrolio, mentre la Repubblica Islamica rientra nella top 10. Il piccolo Qatar è invece il secondo esportatore in assoluto di gas naturale liquefatto (Gnl), e anche Kuwait, Iraq ed Emirati Arabi Uniti sono importanti produttori.

Dallo Stretto di Hormuz passano solitamente circa 20 milioni di barili di petrolio al giorno – un quinto del consumo globale – oltre al Gnl venduto dai governi qatarioti ed emiratini che vale il 20% dell’export complessivo.

Ebbene, secondo quanto riportato dall’Agenzia Internazionale per l’Energia i Paesi asiatici sono i più esposti in termini energetici, visto che l’80% del petrolio e quasi il 90% del gas che transitano attraverso Hormuz sono destinati a finire il loro viaggio in Oriente.

Chi rischia di più in Asia

La Cina è il principale importatore mondiale di petrolio greggio e la produzione dei Paesi del Golfo rappresenta quasi la metà delle sue importazioni di petrolio. La società di ricerca di mercato Kpler le quantifica al 50%, più o meno come quelle di Malesia (47%) e India (46%).

L’allarme si intensifica per Taiwan, Corea del Sud e Thailandia, che si affidano rispettivamente al greggio proveniente dal Medio Oriente per il 61%, 69% e 60%. Molto preoccupante, invece, è la situazione che riguarda Giappone (91%), Filippine (94%), Vietnam (82%), Myanmar (92%), Bangladesh (91%) e Sri Lanka (100%).

Nei guai, soprattutto se il conflitto dovesse intensificarsi, prolungarsi nel tempo e cristallizzarsi, anche Oman (98%) e Pakistan (93%).

L’India, per dimensioni e tassi di crescita economica, è la nazione più in apprensione. Delhi, del resto, dipende fortemente dal greggio proveniente da Iraq e Arabia Saudita, ancora di più da quando gli Stati Uniti l’hanno spinta a ridurre i suoi acquisti di petrolio russo.

La Cina: un caso a parte

Diverso è il caso cinese. Come ha spiegato il sito Politico, quasi tutto il petrolio esportato dall’Iran, e più della metà di quello del Venezuela, è finito nella pancia del Dragone. L’oro nero di Teheran e Caracas rappresentava nell’insieme circa il 17% degli acquisti complessivi di greggio da parte di Pechino: una quota più che rilevante per il più grande importatore mondiale di questa preziosa risorsa energetica.

Non è dunque un caso, o solo retorica, che il ministero degli Esteri cinese si sia detto “molto preoccupato” per gli attacchi all’Iran e ha chiesto la fine della guerra. La stretta sull’approvvigionamento energetico della Cina arriva tra l’altro anche a poche settimane dal vertice previsto tra Donald Trump e Xi Jinping.

Cosa aspettarsi da una situazione del genere? Qualora i combattimenti in Medio Oriente dovessero intensificarsi è lecito attendersi una maggiore dipendenza cinese dalle forniture energetiche russe. L’Asia farebbe comunque bene a iniziare a prepararsi a un potenziale shock energetico senza precedenti.

L'articolo Perché la guerra in Iran è uno shock energetico per tutta l’Asia proviene da InsideOver.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz has been a source of tension between the US and Iran for some time. The US military’s Central Command recently published a black-and-white video showing that the Iranian Navy boarded and briefly seized a Liberian-flagged oil tanker called the MT Wila in the Strait.

The video also showed that special forces were fast-roping down a helicopter onto the MT Wila, whose last position appeared to be off the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates near the city of Khorfakkan.

The Iranian Navy captured the vessel for approximately five hours before releasing it on Wednesday, according to a US military official who spoke to the Associated Press. So far, no reason has been given for the vessel’s seizure.

US Sanctions are Having a Limited Effect

In July, an oil tanker wanted by the US was “hijacked” off the coast of the United Arab Emirates after supposedly smuggling Iranian crude oil.

US President Donald Trump has provided no response to this latest incident so far, but with a presidential election around the corner, he has a limited amount of time to tackle Iran’s action.

The US President recently pledged to strike a new nuclear deal with Tehran “within four weeks” if he is re-elected in November, according to a video of his remarks from inside a New Jersey fundraiser that was reported on by the Independent. Regardless, it is unclear what a new deal would look like, but it is needed fast if Trump is serious about curbing the threat that Iran poses to peace in the Middle East.

One option that is available to Trump in the meantime is that he could impose more sanctions on Iran. It is clear that the Iranian economy has been badly damaged by both the coronavirus and preexisting US sanctions. Focus Economics states that US sanctions and the coronavirus will cause the Iranian economy to contract sharply for the third consecutive year by 7.3 percent.

Iran is Breaching its 2015 Deal

Whilst US sanctions have succeeded in slowing down the Iranian economy, they are not a long-term solution to the problem. It is clear that they are not preventing Tehran from developing its nuclear program.

Bloomberg’s Jonathan Tirone discovered that the Iranian Government is moving to boost production of nuclear fuel at a crucial facility in Natanz which was struck by apparent sabotage last month. Iranian engineers have already installed piping needed to accumulate higher volumes of material that will be generated by three new centrifuge cascades. This represents an apparent breach of the 2015 Iran Deal that Barack Obama signed during his tenure as US president.

For now, Washington has no choice but to exercise all diplomatic options available to them to exert pressure on Iran. The Trump Administration recently revised a resolution that would extend a UN arms embargo on Iran for an indefinite period of time. The original resolution is due to expire on October 18. The UN Security Council will vote on this resolution on Friday, but Tehran’s allies, China and Russia, have the power to thwart such a proposal and they have already voiced strong opposition to it.

The Trump Administration has few Options Left

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has already warned of consequences if the UN approves of such a measure.

The resolution does have the support of Saudi Arabia as the country’s UN ambassador, Abdul Aziz Al-Wasel, said during a conference held in Geneva that Tehran smuggles weapons to militias to destabilize peace in the Middle East.

The Trump administration is right to prioritize a deal with Iran should the US President succeed in getting re-elected in November. But until Trump can produce a coherent plan to achieve this aim, it seems like his options are limited, at least until later on this year. This is why Iran is bold enough to continue to seize oil tankers and enrich its nuclear fuel. Whoever wins the US election this year has an enormous challenge ahead of them.

L'articolo How Should Trump React to Iran’s Seizure of Another Oil Tanker? proviene da InsideOver.

From ruling out the possibility of talks with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un over nuclear deal and declaration of hope of a US-China trade agreement after the U.S. presidential election in November 2020 to gleefully agreeing for signing the first phase of the USA-China trade agreement and flying down to Hanoi to meet Kim Jong-un, history stands testimonial to the fact that mercurial Trump does the opposite of what he says.

After issuing threats of dire consequences if Iran attacks its establishments in the Middle East due to Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani’s assassination, Trump later backed off after Iran’s attacks. This gives enough indications that Trump’s actions are meant with an eye on electoral politics, and Trump cannot take major strategic decisions on his own.

According to political observers, shooting down of a U.S. drone by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in June 2019 and the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz during a war of words with the U.S. showed that Iran means what it says and can execute its warning. Potential disruption of oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz would have a considerable, negative impact on the global economy. Located north of Oman and south of Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is the most significant waterway for energy supply and the only way through from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. This has given Iran the advantage of using the threat of Hormuz as its war strategy.

After boasting of acquiring sophisticated weaponry, Trump, in a televised statement, said the United States “is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it.” The president sounded as keen as the Iranians to avoid a conflict that threatened to embroil the Middle East in a full-fledged war.

Iraqi parliament’s vote and domestic pressure

Iraq’s Parliament has voted to expel 5,000 American troops from the country and the U.S. House has voted to limit Trump’s war powers on Iran, which have further tied Trump’s hands. Despite America’s sanctions, European leaders remain committed to the 2015 Iran Nuclear Pact; they are urging Iran to honor the agreement and showing least interest to take on a more significant role in the Middle East. All these have positioned Trump as a lone warrior against Iran with the majority of USA allies backing off from a confrontation with Iran.

According to analysts, the two sides may have avoided a military clash in the short term, but the conflict may not subside so quickly. Iran has many proxy groups that could create problems for American troops or allies in the Middle East. President Hassan Rouhani of Iran made it clear that his country will not rest until the United States is driven out of the Middle East. “Our final answer to his assassination will be to kick all U.S. forces out of the region,” Mr. Rouhani wrote on Twitter.

Iran is making threats of mass escalation to unleash Hezbollah in Israel and Shiite militias in Iraq if the war escalates— a clear indication that Iran is prepared for any eventuality. With the cost of long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan still fresh in the memory of the USA, Trump appears to have buckled under the domestic pressure to avoid entanglement in the Middle East, as that would prove to be a further drain (created by Iraq-related borrowing) on the U.S. economy. The disruptive effects on world oil markets, the rehabilitation cost of injured veterans, and repair costs for the military seem to have influenced Trump’s decision not to escalate tensions with Iran further.

With all said and done, the operation against General Qasem Soleimani may have consequences beyond all imagination and calculations. It remains to be seen what would be the next move of the combative Iran regime and an impulsive Trump– both are known for not thinking about possible consequences before acting.

L'articolo Why Trump Backed Off from Further Strikes on Iran proviene da InsideOver.

Amidst growing western and international concerns regarding the safety of shipping in the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz, through which some one third of world oil supplies are transported, Australia has announced its intention to join the US military effort to safeguard shipping in the strategic water way. The US endeavor entails deploying an international task force including warships, troops and warplanes in an already tense part of the Middle East.

The US administration has been raising stakes and beefing up military presence following incidents involving  the seizure of two oil tankers, Grace 1, an Iranian super tanker snatched by the British navy in Gibraltar, at the demands of American officials and later released by the local Supreme Court, and the second, the British-flagged Stena Impero tanker seized by Iran in the  Strait of Hormuz in reciprocation.

Breaking international law

Some critics of military involvement in shipping activities have voiced their objection and reservations concerning such a move that will almost definitely r complicate matters with Iran much further, breach international law, and escalate things to a completely new level of risks and dangers with a potential military confrontation no one, except for a bunch of hawks within the Trump administration may be.

Many countries, including some regional and international US friends and allies have shunned away or blatantly turned down the American request to join in.  Australia, however, has pledged to send troops, ships and planes to the Gulf region, as a “modest, meaningful and time-limited” contribution to the United States-led mission in the Strait of Hormuz aimed at protecting freedom of navigation. The United Kingdom and Bahrain are the only other countries to join the US in the Strait of Hormuz. The British government has lobbied and appealed to its European allies to join the US-led mission for safe shipping lanes. IMSC task force shall be stationed in Bahrain, hosting the US 5^th Fleet’s regional command.

Triggering the hornet’s nest

Any escalation-building step will be closely monitored by the watchful eye of the Iranians who have maintained a steadfast position regarding security in this maritime lifeline. Iranian military and political leaders have reiterated their readiness to confront, at any cost, any potential threat to their sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, or their oil exporting activities despite US sanctions.

“The government has been concerned over incidents involving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over the past few months,” Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison said on Wednesday as he announced that his country would send forces to the Middle East because of what he called “destabilizing behavior” in the Gulf that constitutes a threat to Australian interests. “Freedom of navigation through international waters is a fundamental right of all states under international law,” he said.

“The government has decided it’s in Australia’s national interests to work with our international partners to contribute to an international maritime security mission in the Middle East.”  Morrison pointed out that some 15% of crude oil and 30% of refined oil destined for Australia came through the Strait of Hormuz. Instability in the region was an economic threat that needed to be confronted, Morrison elaborated. Australia has committed a frigate, surveillance and patrol aircraft and personnel as part of the US-led mission in the Middle East, known as International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC).

Iran’s anticipated response

Such a step will be regarded, at least by the Iranians, as an ” act of aggression in breach of international law”, some critics of Morrison’s decision have pointed out, emphasizing the potential danger it implies, including the possibility of a military showdown that could easily undermine regional security and cause an unpredictable turmoil in international oil market with potentially devastating consequences on many economies of various sizes and capacities worldwide.

Although Tehran has relatively toned down its belligerent rhetoric following its success in forcing the release of its super tanker despite the huge US pressures on Gibraltar’s authorities not to let Grace1 free, its unquestionable resolve to deter any threat emanating from anywhere to its strategic assets, including the Strait of Hormuz remains as solid as a rock.

The June 20^th shooting down by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps of a RQ-4A Global Hawk, American state-of-the-art surveillance and spy drone over the Strait of Hormuz, without and retaliatory US response, followed by the daring snatching of the British-flagged  oil tanker some 4 weeks ago, are a two prime examples which unequivocally demonstrate that, whenever needed, Tehran lives up to its threats, means business, and that triggering the hornet’s nest is no picnic anymore.

L'articolo Australia to Join US-led Shipping Safety Mission proviene da InsideOver.

Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most vital shipping channels – continues to unfold in incremental measures. Iran and the United States have each become defensive of the international waters that border Iran and flow into the Persian Gulf. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, was in New York this week to meet with US negotiators to put an end to the turmoil between the two nations. Even Thursday, the second day of Zarif’s US visit, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a ship smuggling Iranian oil, although it appeared to be a smaller vessel rather than a large tanker.

“The vessel that Iran towed to its waters after receiving a distress call was later seized with the order from the court as we found out that it was smuggling fuel,” Iranian authorities reported.

Zarif downplayed the event, telling reporters that it happens a few times every week and is done as a countermeasure against smugglers. However, last week Iran also targeted a British tanker which had to be defended by the Royal Navy. As a response, the British military deployed two additional vessels to the strait and the US increased its military involvement. Tankers are frequently escorted throughout the shipping channel and the practice has been justified in a year of tanker attacks, some from Iran, others by an unknown state actor.

Thursday evening, US President Donald Trump revealed that an American naval ship, the USS Boxer, took down an Iranian drone by using an electronic jammer. Trump said the drone approached the ship from a distance of 1,000 yards while ignoring multiple warnings.

“This is the latest of many provocative and hostile actions by Iran against vessels operating in international waters,” Trump declared. “The United States reserves the right to defend our personnel, our facilities and interest and calls upon all nations to condemn Iran’s attempts to disrupt freedom of navigation and global commerce.”

That commerce is the largest concern with volatility in the region. A mere whisper of the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz seems to cause a spike in oil prices. Wednesday, Zarif addressed the idea in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

“We certainly have the ability to do it, but we certainly don’t want to do it because the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are our lifeline,” Zarif said.

Security is paramount to keeping the passage open, he elaborated, but this means secure transit waters for everyone, not only Western countries. Overcrowding exacerbates the problem. Zarif recalled the 1988 incident in which the USS Vincennes destroyed Iran Air Flight 655, a commercial airline, killing 290 civilians after mistaking it for an Iranian fighter jet. The presence of several navies, oil tankers, military and civilian aircraft, and now drones creates an atmosphere that could easily lead to mishaps on top of the intentional military engagements.

While it’s unlikely Iran would close the strait, Zarif likely mentioned it to keep the idea fresh on the minds of American diplomats so they would remember the stakes involved in their negotiations. Brining up the 1988 incident, a time when the US was patently in the wrong, was a move designed to show the world that America is infallible.

Most importantly, during Zarif’s visit, he made the first effort of either side to reach a substantive deal which would hopefully see an end to the tit-for-tat attacks between Washington and Tehran. As part of the agreement pitched by Zarif, Iran would allow enhanced inspections of its nuclear programme. Furthermore, he said that the Iranian Parliament would ratify the Additional Protocol of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This component would give inspectors more access to Iranian facilities to verify that no nuclear weapons are in development. Tehran actually already complies with the Additional Protocol as part of the Obama-era nuclear deal, but Zarif hopes that solidifying it through legislation will make his deal more appealing to Trump. Under the previous nuclear deal, Iran was set to ratify the protocol in 2023 in tandem with the US Congress lifting sanctions.

Zarif proposes both sides take those measures now without waiting four more years. The deal he put forth may be enough to win over Trump, but it is still a far cry from the 12-point list of demands that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made last year. Aside from nuclear restrictions, those conditions primarily focus on an end to Tehran’s support for proxy militias, including the Houthi rebels in Yemen whom Saudi Arabia is currently fighting.

Neither Trump nor officials from his administration have issued an official response to Zarif’s proposal yet. Regardless, Zarif’s visit to the US and his willingness to open the negotiation process is a positive sign that an agreement might be achievable.

L'articolo Iran’s Foreign Minister Looks for a Deal in New York Amid Strait of Hormuz Conflict proviene da InsideOver.