China is sailing into the Pacific Ocean to win over smaller island countries as it wants to establish a new world order that has a lesser influence of the US and its allies. However, trouble is brewing in its backyard. China is fast losing trust among the South East Asian countries. Hegemony and imperialistic attitude are major reasons.

The resentment in these ASEAN countries has been on the rise since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. They fear the rising economic and political clout of China, generally translates into aggravated threats to their economic interests and sovereignty. Many of these countries have already lodged their complaints about China’s rising militarization and assertiveness in the South China Sea as Beijing used its military might to encroach upon exclusive economic zones of these nations as well as make claim on various islands in the sea.

China, survey and South East Asia

The share of people in South East Asia who dislike China grew from 51.5 per cent in 2019 to 63 per cent in 2021; found a survey carried out by Singapore-based SEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. About 69 per cent of respondents demanded that “China should respect my country’s sovereignty and not constrain my country’s foreign policy choices”.

South East Asian countries are wary of China’s rising economic clout since they are subjected to economic coercion. China is undoubtedly influential, but distrusted in the region, said Bilahari Kausikan, a retired Singaporean diplomat. “Beijing has behaved aggressively in pursuit of its interests. And there is also a certain cultural autism in Chinese diplomacy in Southeast Asia, that has accentuated the anxieties of the region,” he said.

ASEAN and China

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has members like Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia and Thailand, may act as a strong deterrence to increasing Chinese hegemony. However, their response has been quite trepid so far. This has led these nations to go close to the US. This does not come as good news for Beijing as the US is China’s rival and has been trying to counter China in South China Sea and East China Sea.

The trust about the US has been growing quite fast among the South East Asian nations. The SEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute survey showed over 55 per cent of respondents expressed confidence in the US as a strategic partner and provider of regional security. 3 There are reasons for these nations to be wary of China. When the entire world was fighting an unprecedented coronavirus pandemic—South East Asian nations too being vulnerable due to lack of required medicines and resources, Beijing had stepped up brinkmanship in the region and mounted pressure on these countries through military activities. China aims to coerce its relatively weak neighbours to give up their claims and territorial rights so it can bring almost the entire South China Sea and resources under its control.

China’s presence

Satellite imagery has shown China has made efforts to increase its presence in the South China Sea, by making violations of maritime territories of South East Asian countries. The grievances of the ASEAN nations are not limited to their sovereignty. Chinese encroachment on the vast reserves of natural gas and oil, strips them of the valuable marine resources that can boost their economic development.4 China has threatened countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam for even carrying out economic activities such as drilling in their own maritime territories that are authorised by The Hague’s international arbitration court.

Beijing issues direct threats of military attack if ASEAN countries do not stop their activities of oil drilling or exploration. China sends its vessels across the South China Sea, often violating maritime boundaries, and takes over disputed islands to build military bases. Chinese aeroplanes also carry out incursions in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of these nations.

China resorted to economic coercion through bans on imports from these countries when they refused to buckle under Chinese military pressure. Allowing China to control over 85 per cent of the South China Sea according to its “Nine-Dash” proposition leads these countries to lose revenue generated through sea trade also since one-third of global shipping occurs in the South China Sea.8 While these nations do not have the courage to stand up to Beijing’s bullying, the general mood has been quite against China. This can be of concern for Beijing amid the growing influence of the US and its allies in South China Sea region.

L'articolo Resentment against China grows in South China Sea region proviene da InsideOver.

Chinese strategy can be hard to grasp, with wildly different views from politicians and analysts, lots of scary headlines — lots of letters and numbers like the J20, THAAD or the F35 — as well as a certain mysterious quality and lack of knowledge about Chinese history.

But it isn’t as intimidating when you keep in mind a few key concepts.

China’s History Holds Crucial Clues

China boasts a history dating back thousands of years and has arguably the longest continual cultural tradition on the globe. But you don’t have to memorize the names of dozens of dynasties. (Perhaps if you really want to impress the ladies you could). The most important summation of thousands of years of history is to realize that they were the dominant power in Asia for much of their history and the government references this frequently in modern policy discussions.

The most important parts of modern Chinese history include two specific periods. From 1843 to 1949 China entered a period of weakness and civil war that only ended with the Communists taking power under Mao Zedong. During this time, the dynasty was largely helpless to stop Western intrusions. Chinese textbooks still cite the Opium War fought by the British. Various Western powers carved up spheres of influence. The US was the least offensive of these powers, but they still demanded and received open trading ports.

Matters became worse after the last leader of the dynasty fell in 1911 and the result was a general perception of weakness in contravention to much of Chinese history and an earned, but overused complaint of being victims. (See point #3.)

China’s Geography

That weakness made the second period, from 1949 to the present, much more pressing for China.  When they finally had a strong government and unified country for the first time in 100 years they set about reasserting their dominance. China has fought offensive preemptive wars with every one of their neighbors to settle territorial disputes or (re)assert their primacy. Many of these events tried to change the terms of what they call, unequal treaties, made with imperialist powers during their period of weakness.

The border with India was established when the British ruled there, and China tried to change the terms of the Sino Soviet Treaty of Friendship made when China was the much weaker partner. Regions like Mongolia, the Taiwan Straight, and Korea and Vietnam also represent historically important areas to China they considered part of their strategic interests.

The Difference Between Rhetoric and Reality

Points 1 and 2 combine to form this point. While China seems to be acting in a manner that recalls the traditional vigorous and expansionist early stages of dynasties, they do so under the old Confucian rhetoric which claims China is beset by foreigners and simply asserting their national rights against bullying imperialists. Knowing the simple difference between the rhetoric of being a victim, and their assertive and even aggressive actions explains their defense of those actions.

For example, the last time the US affirmed international law by sailing in international waters the Chinese claimed they fired two missiles as a defense against US aggression. The difference between true defensive measures and aggressive claims such as those in the South China Sea is that China violate maritime law to expand territory, while the US affirms international law to make sure territorial claims aren’t settled by force — which would naturally favor Beijing since it is the biggest power in the region.

China’s Mastery of Technology

Rhetoric verses reality also applies to weapon systems. The most common way Americans learn about China is some fearmongering article that promises to be a game changer, make the carrier obsolete, or expose a fundamental flaw in US strategy. The Chinese are fielding numerous impressive planes and plan to swarm US forces with overwhelming amounts of missiles.  But missiles are not a new technology. They might be faster, and harder to track, but the US defenses are also upgrading their tracking technology, adding numerous, low cost defensive layers like lasers, and obtaining better interceptors.

This is a response and counter response between China and America, not innovative game changing technology from one or the other. But newspapers are much like politicians, and find that scary, breathless articles get more clicks than nuanced analysis.

As far back as Santa Anna’s Mexican army invading Texas and as recently as Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, there have been supposedly large and advanced armies promising the mother of all battles only to evaporate upon contact with the US military.

Challenges to Chinese Power

That leads to the final point: any potential conflict between the United States and China won’t be fought by weapon systems. Thousands of years ago the classical Confucian scholar Guanzi advocated for a “broad knowledge” of history instead of simply focusing on weapons. Even the robots of the future such as unmanned aerial vehicles, and subs often have a human driver.

China faces similar problems to many of those in Western countries plus a few that are unique to them. Recruits from a sedentary and urban society on average are larger and have more breathing problems. Because of the one child policy many Chinese adolescents have also been spoiled and have what is called little emperor syndrome. One a larger scale, the one child policy is creating a demographic time bomb.

Like other Western countries, China relies on immigrant labor to fill key gaps in the economy, though unlike the West China puts many of them in forced labor camps. Thus, even if it has the best weapons Beijing may not have the best economic foundation or skilled soldiers to fight an actual hot war.

Conclusions

This basic primer on history, geography, rhetoric, technology, and broader knowledge should prepare you for the next breathless article about a mysterious Chinese weapon system, their supposed victimhood, or another flare up in the South China Sea.

L'articolo Five Keys to Understanding Chinese Strategy proviene da InsideOver.

On a recent trip to Asia, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo campaigned for support for the Trump administration’s anti-China course.

Washington’s Increasing Anti-China Focus

Amid a simmering conflict with China, India is getting military support from Washington. During the recent visit by Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper to New Delhi on Tuesday, the two states signed an agreement designed to significantly boost India’s missile systems’ efficacy.

The agreement provides that the Indian army can access high-precision satellite data from the Americans in real-time. The government in New Delhi hopes this will give it an advantage in the border dispute with China, which has escalated several times this year.

Pompeo presented himself as a helpful partner: It was a matter of working with India to counter “the threats to security and freedom posed by the Chinese Communist Party,” he said at a meeting with his Indian counterpart.

Growing US-India Defense Cooperation

With China growing in the region, India and the US have been working together more closely on defense matters for several years.

China’s and India’s relationship is strained after a fatal incident on the Himalayas’ shared border in June. For Pompeo, India was the first stop on an Asia tour that also took him to Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Indonesia. The goal: to compete for allies in the geopolitical competition with China.

In Indonesia, Pompeo praised the country for its determined behavior in the battle for areas in the South China Sea claimed by China. Over the past few years, Indonesia has repeatedly driven Chinese fishing and patrol boats in the waters of the Natuna Archipelago out of its territory or destroyed the boats.

“All law-abiding nations reject the illegal claims of the Chinese Communist Party in the South China Sea,” said Pompeo after a meeting with his Indonesian counterpart Retno Marsudi in Jakarta. The US welcomed the example of Indonesia “to take decisive measures to preserve its maritime sovereignty around the Natuna Islands,” said Pompeo.

Beijing recognizes Indonesia’s sovereignty over the area but does not want to accept the exclusive economic zone – citing “traditional Chinese fishing grounds”. As early as 2016, however, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague decided that there was no legal basis for China’s alleged “historical rights” to the region’s resources.

China’s Claims Over the South China Sea

China claims practically the entire South China Sea for itself. Neighboring countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and the Philippines, reject Beijing’s claims. However, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno had already stressed in August that Indonesia did not want to be involved in the rivalries between Washington and Beijing.

Before Pompeo arrived in Indonesia, he had previously visited Sri Lanka and the Maldives. In the Maldives, Pompeo announced the United States would, for the first time, open an embassy in the Indian Ocean archipelago, yet another testimony of how serious Washington is taking increased Chinese influence and what Pompeo called “its lawless and threatening behavior” in the Indo-Pacific region.

Pompeo: China is a ‘Predator’

Just hours earlier in Sri Lanka, Pompeo had accusing China of being a “predator” in smaller countries by exploiting them with loans and development projects intended to benefit the Chinese more than the intended recipients.

On Thursday, Pompeo traveled to Vietnam.  Here his tour concludes on Friday. Vietnam also has numerous concerns about Chinese policies in the region, ranging from Beijing’s territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea to its development activities along the Mekong River.

Meanwhile, Beijing does not want to accept the efforts of the Americans defenselessly: like Washington, it is trying to bind the states of South and Southeast Asia closer to itself – with a charm offensive and generous offers, such as access to millions of doses of vaccine against the coronavirus.

L'articolo Pompeo’s Quest for Partners in Asia and Against China proviene da InsideOver.

The Pentagon’s ambitious plan to boost the U.S. Navy—which came amid the escalating tension in the disputed South China Sea—has raised concern as well as a question over whether both sides will engage in a possible military confrontation.

Major Boost to the US Navy

Pentagon boss Mark Esper revealed the plan to strengthen the US Navy fleet by bringing up the amount of ships to more than 355 from the existing 293. This will require an additional budget of billions of dollars that will be disbursed starting from this year until 2045.

“To achieve this outcome, we must increase funding for shipbuilding and the readiness that sustains a larger force. Doing this, and finding the money within the Navy budget and elsewhere to make it real, is something both the Navy leadership and I are committed to doing,” Esper stated.

Valiant Shield

The Pentagon’s latest information on September 20 stated that the U.S. Navy ship USS Antietam (C.G. 54) Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser carried out a Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile (TLAM) strike plan, with the Farallon de Medinilla range near Guam as the target.

The strike exercise is a part of Valiant Shield, a biennial military exercise focusing on integration involving all military divisions (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force).

Guam’s military exercise strengthens Esper’s statement in his address last week that China poses a significant threat in the Pacific Rim.

The US Navy vs. the Chinese Navy: a Comparison

The Pentagon report submitted to Congress admitted that China has the larger navy with around 350 submarines and ships, including more than 130 main surface combatants.

China is planning to add more vessels to 360 by the end of 2020, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Chad Sbragia said.

The Pentagon even hailed China’s Navy for making significant progress in shipbuilding, ballistic and cruise missile development, and integrated air defense.

However, China snubbed the Pentagon report, calling it full of bias. The information was published during the ongoing tension between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea, where China increased its military activity.

Popular Mechanics reported that China’s defense budget has grown sixfold in the last six decades, focusing on modernizing combat troops and building strength projection-especially for the Navy.

How Would a US-China Naval Conflict Play Out?

Many often speculate about who would win if both countries engage in a confrontation in the South China Sea. Yet, the answer is not that simple.

The US is still considered the world’s foremost military superpower with sophisticated weapon systems equipped with the latest technology. Washington would be unstoppable and undefeated in the case of a war erupting.

China may have more ships, but it cannot beat the US Navy, Esper emphasized.

“Even if we stopped building new ships, it would take the [People’s Republic of China] years to close the gap when it comes to our capability on the high seas. Ship numbers are important, but they don’t tell the whole story,” Esper stated.

At this time the US has 11 active aircraft carriers, while China only has two, while the US has 74 submarines, and China 66.

Even though the US fleet is seen as superior, it is divided around the world. In contrast, China can focus on countering the US in the Pacific.

Closing the Innovation Gap

China’s rapid military modernization has closed the gap with the S. Therefore, innovation is compulsory for the Pentagon

Using Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) and equipping ships and warplanes with a long-range missile to sink an enemy’s ship can be the best option for the Pentagon, as Elbridge Colby wrote in Foreign Policy. 

L'articolo Why is the Pentagon Worried About China’s Navy? proviene da InsideOver.

In the ongoing conflict between Washington and Beijing, another element has now been added which is likely to exacerbate the situation further.

China Launches Missiles into South China Sea

On Wednesday, an incident occurred in the South China Sea, when China launched two medium-range missiles into the highly contested sea area. According to Beijing, the military’s demonstration of strength occurred after China previously rated an incident with an American spy plane as a “provocation.”

The missiles were fired from Qinghai and Zhejiang provinces on Wednesday and landed in a sea area that is currently closed for Chinese military exercises from Monday to Saturday, a source close to the Chinese military reported to the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post. There was talk of a “warning to the USA.”

It was a nuclear-armed medium-range missile of the type DF-26B with a range of 4,000 kilometers and an advanced anti-ship missile DF-21D with a range of 1,800 kilometers, the source reported to the paper which appears to possess high-level contacts.

According to the information provided, both rockets landed in an area southeast of the Chinese island of Hainan and the Paracel Islands.

China’s Complaint of ‘Severe Provocation’ from American Military

The missile launches followed China’s complaints that an American spy plane had entered a no-fly zone for Chinese armed forces’ target practice. In Beijing, a foreign office spokesman complained that the US U2 plane had “seriously disrupted” the maneuvers, resulting in a “severe provocation”.

According to Beijing, the flight at high altitude violated the US-China code of conduct and international practice, and Washington’s behavior could easily lead to misunderstandings and misjudgments — and even trigger accidents on land or at sea. The US should “cease such provocative actions immediately,” a spokesman for the Chinese government stated.

China’s Claims on the South China Sea

China continues to make territorial claims over large parts of the South China Sea through which essential shipping routes pass, and many raw materials can be found. The Hague International Court of Arbitration rejected the territorial claims in 2016. However, China ignored the ruling. The US government has also formally rejected the Chinese claims since mid-July. The sea area lies between China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

The incident occurred in the People’s Liberation Army’s northern command area, which borders Russia, North Korea, and Mongolia. Here, China is currently conducting maneuvers in both the Northeast and the South China Sea, with American naval vessels often appearing to demonstrate navigation freedom on the world’s oceans and thus to deter further Chinese aggression in the area.

US Issues Further Restrictions on Chinese Companies and Visas

The incident occurs on par with the latest sanctions from Washington. Only on Wednesday, the US government issued visa and export restrictions against several Chinese state-owned companies involved in projects in the marine area in the territorial dispute. These include subsidiaries of the construction company China Communications Construction Company, according to communications from the State Department and the Department of Commerce in Washington.

China has created artificial islands on several reefs in the South China Sea and built military facilities, which is severely criticized internationally. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that since 2013 the Communist Party has been utilizing state-owned companies to advance its territorial claims, and thereby “destabilizing” the region, “trampling the sovereign rights of its neighbors and causing immeasurable environmental damage.”

China’s aggressive conduct occurs despite other neighbors such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan also making claims to an individual or multiple islands in the South China Sea.

The American presence and the sanctions are thus not only warranted but needed, particularly in regard to the Taiwanese situation.

Moreover, with President Donald Trump’s election campaign heating up, the tensions between China and the US are more likely to escalate further in the coming weeks and months than to pacify.

L'articolo Beijing Fires Missiles into South China Sea proviene da InsideOver.

The United States has shifted its position in the South China Sea. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that “the world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire …America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law. We stand with the international community in defense of freedom of the seas and respect for sovereignty and reject any push to impose ‘might makes right’ in the South China Sea or the wider region.”

The Importance of America’s Actions

This means that while the US officially remains neutral, they have sided with other claimants like Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam against China. This decision comes with numerous implications including the status of Chinese artificial islands, the importance of Freedom of Navigation patrols and the consequences and dangers of an aggressive Chinese foreign policy.  In particularly, it suggests that instead of need for more caution in response to Chinese aggression, there is a block forming against them.

One of the most frequent points of contention in the region involves the artificially built islands and contested claims in the South China Sea. The region has considerable oil and natural gas reserves and includes traditional fishing regions of the population. As a result, the region includes frequent clashes between fisherman and China’s militarized coast guard. China regularly sends oil exploration vessels with armed escorts in what should be the exclusive economic zones of neighboring countries.

Island Power

An artificial island brings with it territorial claims extending 12 nautical miles and, at least according to the creator of the island, an exclusive economic zone. On top of territorial claims to economic resources these islands could be used as launching pads or key defenses in a potential war. These artificial islands include advanced radar systems, anti-air batteries, shipping docks that can handle blue-water ships, submarine bases and large runways that can support their advanced fighters (which are being built using stolen technology from the F-22 and F-35.) Keep in mind they are doing this in the Spratlys and other islands in the South China Sea that are vigorously disputed. (It’s true that other nations have done so as well, but not to the extent that China has and definitely not with the same degree of militarization.)

Because these islands are proclaimed as Chinese territory, Freedom of Navigation patrols are incredibly important. These are legal maneuvers taken in international waters instead of the 12 nautical miles included in the territorial limit. When the U.S. performs a Freedom of Seas operation, they send an important signal of strength and peace. Because the islands are disputed, the US performs these operations to reaffirm the importance of international law. These prevent the de facto recognition of this territory as China’s. Thus, the statement from the United States in some ways is simply an affirmation of what the Freedom of Navigation Patrols already indicate.

The Inchoate Anti-China Coalition

But it is different in more important ways. It combines with other recent events to suggest a new block is forming against China. Presumably, the United States is willing to tolerate and maybe even forgive non-Chinese artificial islands in the region. The statement from Pompeo is a direct repudiation of aggressive Chinese action. This makes foreign policy analysts wring their hands that this will increase tension with China (as though the fisherman of the neighbors don’t already face harassment from the militarized Chinese coast guard), but ignores the long term trends that favor America and its allies.

Analysts say that militant Chinese aggression with India, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Australia have driven otherwise friendly or neutral countries straight into America’s arms. While they are smaller Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam have shown an indication to work with each other and the United States. Australia has so much tension with China that they are increasing their defense spending. They are focusing on longer range anti ship and new hyper sonic missiles. Both of which directly relate to China’s increasing reliance on blue water naval warships and missile systems. Vietnam has hosted American aircraft carriers several times, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt just a few months ago (in between its crew battling the coronavirus.)  While their militaries are still dwarfed by China, there is a growing sense among them that they will individually collapse if they don’t collectively resist and like Vietnam, they have been growing closer to the US.

The result that is most important regards China’s aggression. Many people worry that China will bully its way into getting what it wants, build up island after island until they present the world with Chinese control of the area. But the US newly sided with China’s opponents, the Freedom Navigation operations, and the consolidating block suggests that China has created a wall of opponents around them that will constrain their aggression and adventurism.

L'articolo Sea Change in the South China Sea proviene da InsideOver.

It was a demonstration of power: two US aircraft carriers conducted an exercise within sight of Chinese warships in the South China Sea on Monday, July 6.

US Naval Show of Force

The conflict between Washington and Beijing in the South China Sea continuous to intensify. Despite China’s warnings, the United States sent the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Nimitz to participate in one of the most extensive naval exercises in recent years — into one of the most severely contested areas on the globe.

The exercises conducted by the US come after the Defense Department recently expressed concern about a multi-day military exercise by China near the Paracel Islands. According to Rear Admiral George Wikoff, the United States seeks to “send our partners and allies an unmistakable signal that we feel committed to regional security and stability.”

China Condemns American Actions

China has condemned the deployment of the carriers. Deputy Director of Foreign Affairs Zhao Lijian spoke of a “demonstration of power with ulterior motives.” According to Lijian, the exercises were a provocation by the United States and undermined peace and stability in the area. The move also promoted the militarization of the South China Sea, Zhao stated. On the other hand, China’s exercises around the Paracel Islands were not objectionable as the archipelago belonged to China. Although Vietnam and Taiwan also claim the islands, Zhao argued that a dispute did not exist. Washington’s criticism of Beijing’s actions “completely ignores the facts.”

An increased destabilization and militarization in the region have indeed been witnessed over the last years. However, contrary to China’s point of view, Beijing is the culprit due to its aggressive conduct and preposterous territorial claims.

Why is the South China Sea Important?

The South China Sea lies between China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Territorial disputes between the neighbors have existed for decades. The islands in question are a collection of mostly tiny reefs, sandbars, and atolls and are located around 330 kilometers southeast of the Chinese island of Hainan. The Spratly Islands extend even further south over a distance of approximately 1,000 kilometers and are significantly closer to the coasts of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia than to China.

As established by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, a state can claim territory from its belt of coastal waters extending at most 12 nautical miles (22 km). China’s claims are hence not only man-made but in violation of international law.

China’s Claims on Islands in the South China Sea

Nonetheless, China has been claiming the islands, since 1947, and despite a judgment by the Permanent Arbitration Court in The Hague that rejected China’s claims in 2016 – a decision Beijing utterly disregards.

Instead, Beijing claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, which remains one of the most relevant international shipping routes, with $3.37 trillion worth of trade passing through every year – amounting to almost one-third of all global maritime trade. Moreover, vast amounts of raw materials such as oil and gas are suspected below the surface. Specifically, the US estimates deposits totaling 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

China Starts Building Man-Made Islands

In 2014, China started to add landmass to the island and subsequently began building military fortifications on them. That build-up occurred despite President Xi Jinping’s pledge to President Barack Obama in 2015 that the islands would not be militarized. Despite the broken pledge and China’s rather apparent interests in the region, Beijing speaks of “peaceful” intentions.

The exercises occur at a time of heightened tensions between the United States and China, primarily due to the corona pandemic and allegations the White House has expressed towards Beijing. Besides the pandemic, persistent trade issues and Beijing’s dealings with Hong Kong continue to escalate. Given that President Donald Trump has played the China card as part of his reelection efforts, these conflicts are unlikely to be alleviated any time soon.

With increased Chinese presence, the US seeks to and must counterbalance Bejing’s hegemonic aspirations. The exercise now is hence not only a display of force and yes, superiority but also a signal to China. A signal that the United States is neither inclined to accept nor willing to succumb to China’s aggression in the region. It is an indispensable message as the US remains the last line of defense between Bejing and its agenda: mastery of East Asia and beyond.

L'articolo America in the South China Sea proviene da InsideOver.

The growing tensions between the US and China in South China Sea could soon lead to war between the two global powers. One American think tank even went as far as claiming this could happen in the next 18 months if the situation continues to deteriorate.

Red Alert: South China Sea

The US Navy has recently deployed its ships twice in the South China sea to challenge China’s influence in the marginal sea that measures approximately 3,500,000 square kilometres. To flex its muscles and in a bid to exert its influence, China is also deploying its two aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong in the sea to conduct military drills.

The war games come at a time when the rift between China and US is widening over the coronavirus pandemic and Beijing’s efforts to tighten its control over Hong Kong by introducing new security laws. Behind the current schism is China’s attempts to build its influence in the South China Sea by controlling the busy sea route and annexing some of the contested Islands .

The fact that US has defense pacts with some of the countries that are currently engaged in disputes with China over the control of the islands makes war even more likely.

Simulated Chinese Invasion

In mid may a Japanese online newspaper revealed that the People Liberation Army of China was planning to conduct a simulated invasion of the Dongsha Islands in August . Although Dongsha Islands are under the control of Taiwan which considers them part of Dongsha Atoll National Park, Beijing claims them as part of its Guangdong province.

On May 13 China’s state controlled Global Times reported that the Chinese Army Chief  had announced that  Dongsha Islands are strategically located and the Chinese army could annex them if Taiwan secessionists insists on secession. This was in response secessionists who have been calling for Taiwan’s total independence from China, something Beijing has ruled out.

Similar remarks were made by Li Zhansu chairman of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress who said, “There is only one China in the world and both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. We sternly warn Taiwan secessionists that Taiwan independence is a dead end. Those who defy the law are bound to receive harsh punishment.”

American Obligation to Defend Taiwan

Under the Taiwan Relations Act enacted in in 1979 by the US Congress, US considers Taiwan a sub-sovereign foreign state. This means the US treats Taiwan as one of the “foreign countries, nations, states, governments, or similar entities” and not as an extension of China.

The Act states that , “United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities.”
However it remains vague on whether the US could come to Taiwan’s aid in case China decides to go ahead with an invasion.

This was intentionally done to dissuade Taiwan from declaring itself independent and to deter Beijing from unifying Taiwan with People’s Republic of China. Instead the nature of military support the US is could give Taiwan in case of invasion was left upon the President and the Congress to decide.

This means that if China and Taiwan were to clash over the Dongsha, it would be upon Trump and the Congress to decide. With the Republicans controlling the Congress the final decision would almost be unilateral. The US under Trump has been more pro-Taiwan, and there’s no doubt that any invasion of Taiwan could attract a strong response.

Would the US Really Step Up to Defend Taiwan?

However , questions have been emerging about US’s ability to protect Taiwan. In early May one Pentagon source quoted by The Times said, “the US would lose a war with China fought in the Pacific and is unable to defend Taiwan.” Almost simultaneous with the revelation was Trump’s announcement that US is building an advanced missile which he said would be 17 times faster than its current missiles.

Apart from Taiwan, China has also been targeting the Islands of Paracel and the Spratlys which are claimed by a number of countries. Although these islands are largely unoccupied, it is claimed they hold large reserves of minerals apart from being home to major fishing grounds. In claiming the Islands China has always based its argument on a 1947 historical map which it says shows the two islands within its territory.

The claims have, however, been disputed by Vietnam which argues that Beijing only started claiming the ownership of the Islands after the 1940s. According to Vietnam, the islands have been under its control from the 17th century .

Another claimant is Philippines which cites its proximity to the contested Islands as proof of ownership. In 2013 , it took China to an arbitration tribunal constituted under the Annex VII to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The tribunal ruled in Philippines’ favour accusing China of violating Philippines’ sovereign rights. China rejected the decision and vowed not to abide by it.

Again if a was to erupt between China and Philippines’ over the contested Islands, then US could find itself at the center of it. This is because US and the Philippines have a defence pact that states that both nations would support each other if one of them come under attack.

The Chance of War is Real

Apart from disputes over the islands, a war could erupt between China and US because of their efforts to control the South China sea shipping route, which accounts for one third of global trade by sea. According to data every year an estimated $5.3 trillion worth of goods transit through the South China Sea, with $1.2 trillion accounting for trade with the US.

According to US think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), “ the United has a strong interest in preventing China from asserting control over the South China sea.” This is because “maintaining free and open access to this waterway is not only important for economic reasons, but also to uphold the global norm of freedom of navigation.”

This was recently  made clear in a statement issued by Lt. Anthony Junco a spokesperson for the US Navy’s 7th fleet , who said that by conducting operations in the South China Sea, the “United States demonstrated that these waters are beyond what China can lawfully claim as its territorial sea. “

To avoid the two nations going to war, CFR says US can handle the situation better by preventing “Chinese expansion, ideally while avoiding a dangerous confrontation and being prepared to deftly manage any crises should they arise.” The preventive options could involve a mix diplomatic and military strategies.

First by deterrence through the threat of punishment, meaning US threatening China that any move would be met by greater force. Second would be deterrence by denial, which would involve US convincing China that it won’t succeed if it tried. Third, the US could tolerate China by convincing it to “accept more limited aims in the South China Sea and pursue those aims through transparent and cooperative tactics.”

Which path will be taken remains to be seen, but there is a real chance of war.

L'articolo US and China Headed for a Clash in South China Sea proviene da InsideOver.

The South China Sea has been a hotbed for aggression in recent years. The issue stems from China’s claim to the waters which border neighboring states such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan. While these nations view the nearby waters, and consequently the resources within them, as theirs by sovereign right, Beijing disagrees. Instead, China holds to a ‘nine-dash line’ which includes roughly 90 percent of the sea. This summer, it has sent several ships into the sea to assert its right to the waters, sinking a Filipino fishing vessel in the process. Now it is Vietnam who must defend itself from Chinese excursions.

Last week, a survey ship was spotted off the coast of Vietnam. The Vietnamese government promptly and repeatedly demanded that China remove it from what it considers its exclusive economic zone. This area is defined by the United Nations as coastal water extended from the baseline to 200 nautical miles. Undeterred, Beijing simply responded by asking Hanoi to respect its right to the sea. It was not the first instance of aggression towards Vietnam; earlier in the week, a Chinese-flagged coastguard ship was patrolling the waters in the vicinity of Vietnamese vessels according to Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Over the last several days, the Chinese survey ship, Haiyang Dizhi 8, and its escorts conducted activities in the southern area of the East Sea that violated Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone and continental shelf,” said Le Thi Thu Hang, Vietnamese foreign affairs ministry spokesperson. “This area lies entirely within the Vietnamese waters.”

Vietnam is not the only country to have a confrontation with China recently. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte called on the US for protection after a Chinese vessel sunk a Filipino fishing boat on June 9. As with Vietnam, the Chinese ship was inside the Philippine’s exclusive economic zone, putting the Chinese in the wrong, not only for downing a peaceful boat, but also for intruding upon the territorial waters of the Philippines. The “little maritime accident”, as Duterte referred to it, angered Filipino citizens to the point of them threatening to impeach the president for failing to protect them from Beijing’s attacks.

Duterte taunted them to go ahead with the impeachment so he could have his opponents arrested. From his perspective, the Philippines are not equipped to properly handle the Chinese navy if its excursions turn to armed conflict or war, therefore Duterte opted to not even send his military as a defensive measure. Instead, he publicly asked for America’s support in protecting the fishing and resource rights of the island nation by way of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between the two nations.

“I’m calling now America. I am invoking the RP-US pact, and I would like America to gather their Seventh Fleet in front of China. I’m asking them now,” Duterte said.

In the defense agreement, both the Philippines and US pledged to protect one another if attacked. In 2014, the nations signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement which notably was designed to boost maritime security. As part of the additional measures, the Philippines may host US forces at its military bases if an invitation is extended, which Duterte seems to have done.

There is strong support within the Trump administration for defending island nations threatened by China. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised America’s support “so that these incredibly vital economic sea lanes are open and China does not pose a threat to closing them down,” he said. Beyond the economic concerns that stem from a confrontational Chinese approach to the sea, Beijing’s developments in the region threaten the sovereignty and security of other nations, Pompeo elaborated.

China has been extending its presence by building artificial islands, most of which are used as military bases. With each new island established, Beijing’s reach grows longer and the military and economic might of its neighbors could never hope to compare to that of China. The only real solution, barring action in the United Nations which China could shut down as a member of the Security Council, is support from the United States. However, even an increased American naval presence would be neutered as Washington would be unlikely to risk engaging the Chinese in armed conflict, especially as the trade war continues.

“I think the whole world understands that the Trump administration has made a true commitment to making sure that these seas remain open for the security of the countries in the region and the world, open to commercial transit,” said Pompeo.

For a bit of irony, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lu Kang responded to Pompeo, telling him that outside nations “should not stir up troubles in the region”, as if China has done none of that itself.

Until this point, there have only been promises of greater US support; none of it has materialized yet, allowing Beijing to continue to steamroll over other nations.

L'articolo The South China Sea Dispute Continues proviene da InsideOver.