The Scots are a stoic bunch. On a cold, wet and windy Saturday in January, when only dogs and their owners braved the elements, an estimated 80,000 of them marched through the sodden streets of Glasgow to demand Scottish independence. They came in good voice and brought all their coloured flags, the red and yellow of Catalonia, the blue and white of the Scottish saltire.

When asked, they said remarkably similar things. Why are you marching? ‘Because we voted to stay in Europe (by 62 per cent to 38 per cent) and we are being hauled out against our will. We voted overwhelmingly for the Scottish National Party (SNP) at the general election – the SNP won 48 of the 59 seats available in Scotland – but we, nevertheless, have a Conservative government ruling over us in London.’

John a former coal miner from Glasgow revealed he had once been a staunch supporter of the Labour Party.

“Things have changed now,” He told InsideOver. “I feel that now is the time for independence for Scotland. We are being dragged down a road that we don’t want to go by Westminster. We vote time and again for our own MP’s and we end up with a foreign country ruling us.”

The foreign country in question? England, Wales and Northern Ireland collectively known (with Scotland) as the United Kingdom.

“Independence for Scotland,” John continued. “Means that we are going to… vote in our own government, we can have a Labour government…Conservative government, you can have Liberals…whoever you like. Independence doesn’t mean that Scotland is going to be ruled by the SNP, people must realise this. If we come out with a strong Labour party who have policies and the vision to take Scotland along people would go with that.”

John is not alone in his disaffection with the Scottish Labour Party. As recently as the 2010 UK general election, the party had secured 41 of the 59 Scottish seats available. By 2019 that majority had been reduced to one seat. In nine years they had lost a remarkable 40 seats.

On the day of the march their leader Richard Leonard was trying to steer his party in the direction of a spring conference to, at least, consider and discuss the issue of a second referendum on Scottish independence.
His efforts to find a middle road, however, ended in humiliating defeat.

The Scottish Labour Party, by their actions, seem to want to drive a wedge between themselves and the contemporary sentiments of increasingly large swathes of the Scottish population.

Scottish Labour’s refusal to acknowledge the complexities of Scotland’s political landscape, the debate around independence, and the dissonance between what the Scots’ vote for and what is forced upon them seems shortsighted. It leaves the SNP looking as if they are the only political grouping in Scotland remotely interested in the concerns of the majority of Scottish people and they have sought to capitalise on that.

But the political situation in Scotland is far from simple.

Despite the upbeat atmosphere I couldn’t help but think the weather was symbolic. This was more of a damp, good-spirited trudge than a full-blooded revolution.

Perhaps, it mirrors the near 50/50 split in Scotland between those who demand independence, and certainly a second referendum on the issue, and those who are not so sure and who would – for now – remain as part of the United Kingdom.

Similarly, while the SNP claimed 81 per cent of the seats available, they only polled 45 per cent of the total Scottish vote. The same as they claimed in the referendum for Scottish independence of September 2014.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative government, now firmly installed in parliament with an 80 seat majority following the December 2019 election, has sent a letter to SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon telling her there would be NO second referendum on independence.

Johnston suggested the SNP carry out the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland who voted to remain in the UK in September 2014, and concentrate on running the country properly. He also reminded the SNP that they agreed, at the time, that this would be a once in a generation referendum.

Sturgeon countered by saying that the situation north of the border had changed significantly in the intervening five years plus. So much to warrant indyref2. She believed that Johnston was now ‘denying’ Scotland a democratic say in its future.

Frustrated by this turn of events one Scottish National Party MP Angus MacNeil has suggested that Holyrood organise its own, what he termed as a “legal referendum”. He then suggested that, rather than take the Catalonia go-it-alone route, the Scottish parliament should then wait and see if Westminster challenged the concept of a second referendum in the courts. Mr MacNeil also suggested making the 2021 Holyrood elections a mandate for indyref2.

But, many have been critical of the SNP’s handling of their internal policies, especially concerning Scottish education and health. Many have criticised them for being singularly obsessed with independence to the detriment of the country’s domestic situation.

Questions have also been raised on the nature of the Scottish political landscape given independence. Would there be a bicameral democratic infrastructure? I have asked the nationalists and have still to receive a definitive answer. Some have also asked what currency would be used, and how would all the attendant dangers of launching Scottish money be avoided (sufficient reserves and so on)? Yet others have been alarmed by and questioned the present £12.5 billion deficit, seven per cent of GDP – six times the level in the rest of the UK – which would, on current rules, and ironically, prevent an independent Scotland from re-entering the European Union.

Key moments will come when the UK finally leaves the European Union and the May 2021 elections to the devolved parliament in Edinburgh.

It would be hard to deny the waves of change battering the shoreline of Scotland. There is unrest, a Scottish Labour Party lost in its march to oblivion, and the SNP, whose nationalist ideology is not universally popular, but present the only glimmer of light disenchanted Scots can gather around.

But it also seems certain that Johnson and his government will not entertain a second referendum in this government’s lifetime, and he, given his 80 seat majority, could be in power for a long time.

L'articolo London Says No To Second Scottish Independence Referendum proviene da InsideOver.

Boris Johnson has just given the Conservative party its largest victory in over thirty years. With all the 650 seats declared, the Conservatives secured 365 seats representing a gain of 47. For Labour, it was the worst performance since 1935. Jeremy Corbyn has already declared that he will not lead the Labour Party into another election and will step down as soon as his replacement is found.

The significant majority now gives Johnson mandate to lead the UK for a full year term of five years. However, his plan to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act means he may not lead the UK into another election in 2024. Nevertheless, the huge majority now gives him the best opportunity to deliver all his promises.

There are already some disquiets from certain quarters that he may misuse his huge majority by disregarding divergent views, and pushing Brexit through parliament on his terms.

“With such a big majority none of the contentions of the past should block Johnson’s path. But expect some amendments, most likely on Northern Ireland trade and the transition period extension decision,” said The Guardian.

Tony Blair the former British Prime Minister had warned about this during the election campaigns urging people to vote tactically for a hung parliament so that the winner of the election would have no majority to govern without considering the interests of others. He feared that Boris had no chance of securing a trade deal with the EU within a year and that a no-deal Brexit is probable.

Similar fears were expressed by Michel Barnier the EU Chief Negotiator who stated that the future trade talks would be difficult and demanding. “Boris’s unpredictability and his erratic behaviour makes it even more likely that he may crush the UK out of the EU without a trade deal if he feels negotiations are taking too long, impeding him from fulfilling his election mantra “Get Brexit Done”.

However, he can still use his resounding victory to secure a Brexit deal by the January 31 deadline.

So what happens next now ?

The new Conservative government is expected to meet the Queen on 17 December, followed by the Queen’s speech on 19 December. The legislation needed for the withdrawal agreement would then be submitted to parliament most probably by 20 December or 23 December for a second reading.

The time table is tight leaving Johnson with only around 16 days to get his withdrawal agreement bill through parliament.

“It will not be fun doing a bill of this kind complexity in a month but is doable,” Brigid Fowler the senior researcher at the Hansard Society told the Guardian. Johnson’s director of legislative affairs had earlier on stated that that passing Brexit legislation through parliament would take 37 days.

To hurry up the process, parliament has been asked to sit on Saturday before Christmas and the House of Lords between Christmas and new year.

Apart from Brexit, another challenge will be the issue of Scottish independence. The performance of the Scottish National Party SNP has renewed, refreshed and strengthened the calls for a second referendum in Scotland.

The party won 47 out of 59 seats, 11 more than what they achieved in 2017. “Westminster has ignored people in Scotland for three years. Last night the people of Scotland said enough. It is time for Boris Johnson to start listening, “said Nicola Sturgeon First Minister of Scotland and the leader of SNP.

“I don’t pretend that every single person who voted SNP yesterday will necessarily support independence, but there has been a strong endorsement in this election of Scotland having a choice over our future; of not having to put up with a Conservative government we didn’t vote for and not having to accept life as a nation outside the EU,”

She had hoped to formally put out the proposal for a second referendum to the UK government before Christmas but held back. Instead, she said, “I have just won an election on the strength of the argument that it’s Scotland’s right to choose. It’s up to the Tories to decide what their Plan B is when my Plan A has just been given a ringing endorsement.”

However in a telephone call with Sturgeon just after returning to Downing Street as Prime Minister, Johnson reiterated that the results of the 2014 referendum were “decisive and should be respected,” This effectively rules out the possibility of a second referendum for Scotland.

Despite Johnson’s intransigence, the calls are getting louder with an online petition demanding independence for Scotland reaching 350,000 signatures.

When Scotland independence referendum was held in 2014, many Scottish voted to stay in the UK. By then the UK had not voted to leave the EU in 2016. Since then, the situation has changed tremendously.

Many Scottish citizens are not happy with Brexit and in case they are given a chance to vote in a second independence referendum, the results would likely be catastrophic leading to the breaking up of the UK.

Perhaps that explains why Johnson is afraid to take a risk. His spokesman said, “The Prime Minister made clear how he remained opposed to a second independence referendum, standing with the majority of people in Scotland who do not want to return to division and uncertainty.”

More than ever the UK needs to take special steps to recover from deep rifts caused by Brexit and a highly contested election. Johnson has already reached out to Remainers and supporters of other parties.

In his first speech as Prime Minister he said, he would use his newfound parliamentary authority to bring the country together and level up opportunities. “The UK deserves a break from politics and a permanent break from talking about Brexit. I urge everyone to find closure and to let the healing begin,” he said.

He told Brexit Remainers, “We in this One Nation Conservative government will never ignore your good and positive feelings of warmth and sympathy towards the other nations of Europe.”

Despite his reconciliatory tone, demonstrators took to the streets of London last night to protest his victory.

L'articolo What’s Next After Boris Johnson’s Victory? proviene da InsideOver.