Scotland is beginning to feel like a different country. They voted by a solid 62 to 38 per cent to stay in the European Union (EU), yet they are about to be dragged out by a Conservative government over 70 per cent of them didn’t vote for in the December 12, general election.

I am on a train heading into Glasgow, Scotland, Friday 13 December, the day after the UK general election. The mood is sombre, no one seems happy, and many seem conflicted by the experience. Two young men directly facing me discuss how ‘Brexit will be a disaster’. They seem utterly dejected by how the events of the previous evening unfolded. I hear one say to the other: ‘I am not British’.

Few could have predicted the outcome of the UK general election and the takeaways are easy. Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have completely crushed the opposition and strolled back into Downing Street with an astounding 80 seat majority, their best showing since 1987. Meanwhile, by contrast, their main opponents the Labour Party have recorded their worst election results since 1935. Jeremy Corbyn and his Labour Party, we discovered, had completely misjudged the mood of the nation, and paid heavily for it, losing seats in the north like Leigh and Blyth, formerly considered watertight, to the Tories.

In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) also enjoyed a landslide victory taking 48 of the 59 seats signalling a clear rejection in Scotland of both Brexit and Boris Johnson.

“It couldn’t really be clearer now,” Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland and leader of the SNP told the BBC. “That the majority in Scotland want a very different future to that…chosen by much of the rest of the UK.” (BBC News, Saturday, December 14.)

Sturgeon had fought the campaign by telling the electorate that only by voting SNP would they be able to block Brexit. Her appeal worked, she got the votes she wanted claiming 48 seats. She took seven from the Conservatives and six from Labour, turning 80 per cent plus of Scotland yellow (the colour of the SNP) in the process.

But the victory had a hollow ring to it. As events unfolded across the nation Johnson’s historic win meant that no one could now stop the UK from leaving the European Union, and it was likely that Brexit would happen by January 31, 2020.

No sooner had the backslapping started and the celebrations underway at Matthew Parker Street, Conservative Campaign Headquarters, than the nationalists were claiming a mandate for a second referendum on Scottish independence.

They made the point that while Scotland had voted to stay within the European Union they were now going to be dragged out against their will with the rest of the UK. They also pointed out that while around 74 per cent of the Scottish electorate had rejected the Conservatives, they were, nevertheless, about to be ruled by a Tory regime they hadn’t voted for and clearly didn’t want.

The only answer to this situation, the SNP now claimed, was to hold a second referendum (the eponymous indyref2) on the issue of Scottish independence and give the Scottish people the opportunity to decide their own future.

To do that, however, the SNP would have to secure the agreement of the UK government. To hold a second referendum on the issue of Scottish independence, the SNP need to apply, for what is known as a Section 30, to the government in power at Westminster. With an 80 seat majority it would be difficult to see a ‘One Nation’ Tory like Johnson agreeing.

“They can’t refuse.” Manny Singh, Director of Operations of the Scottish Independence Movement told Inside Over sounding frustrated. “The SNP will beat them in the courts. It would win us even more votes if Westminster refused.”

I suspect Manny may be right. There are signs that those who don’t buy into or necessarily support the Nationalist ideology, are nevertheless beginning to migrate to the independence cause. Disenchanted with the prospect of leaving the European Union, and facing the prospect of living under another Tory regime this trickle might grow.

Sir John Curtice speaking to Emily Maitlis of the BBC, advised that people watch opinion polls about “attitudes towards independence.” Curtice said to pay particular attention at the time the UK leaves the European Union under Johnston’s leadership. He suggests that public attitudes at this time will be very important to the Conservative and SNP governments alike.

Of course, as he also points out, if opinion polls are indicating a majority willing to vote yes to independence it would be hard to believe that those in power at Westminster would feel that saying ‘no’ would be strategically expedient. Like many, John Curtice also felt that should the impasse continue, and with a majority of Scots wishing a say in their future, the SNP may well take their grievance to court.

At the same time and despite their frustration, there is no appetite in Scotland for a Catalonia style go-it-alone referendum. Michael Russell, Cabinet Secretary for Government Business and Constitutional Relations has told me that is not a route the SNP are planning to take. Mr Russell has said that the Scottish government will abide by the UK constitution.

Much, of course, will unfold over the next few weeks, but this has started to feel oddly different.

At the time of the first referendum on September 18, 2014 the yes group had support from 45 per cent of those who voted while 55 per cent opted to remain in the UK. Five years later at the general election the SNP pulled support from 45 per cent of the Scottish electorate, the same proportion as the ‘yes’ movement got at the first referendum.

Yes, you might say it is oddly symmetrical. But who can doubt that in five years things have changed significantly for the people of Scotland? Against their will the vast majority of them are about to be forced to leave the EU, and against their will the vast majority of them are going to be subjected to a Tory government they don’t want.

That change, the SNP claim, means that the Scots must be given the opportunity to have a say in their own future.

L'articolo As Johnson Celebrates Landslide, The SNP Threaten To Gatecrash The Party proviene da InsideOver.

After the British general election on Thursday, London is on a collision course with Edinburgh, as the First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) Nicola Sturgeon has announced a formal request for a new referendum to break away from the UK. However, Prime Minister Johnson continues to oppose the plan and is unlikely to grant a referendum.

It would be the second referendum since 2014. That year, 55 percent of Scots had voted against the separation from the United Kingdom. Sturgeon argues, however, that the Scots’ majority voted in favor of remaining in the UK and the EU. The situation had changed with the EU referendum in 2016, in which Scotland voted to remain.

Moreover, Sturgeon has been impelled by her party’s election result, where it obtained 48 of the 59 seats available in Scotland. The landslide victory was providing a new mandate for a second referendum on Scottish independence. However, one problem remains. For a referendum to be conducted, Johnson’s approval is required under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

Meanwhile, Sturgeon emphasized she was not asking for permission but asserting the right of the Scots to determine their independence and thus their future.

However, Johnson had emphasized his opposition for a second referendum on Friday night, when one of his spokesmen called Sturgeon to deliver the message. After all, the 2014 result was clear, and it ought to be respected.

Johnson, who must have anticipated this scenario and knew what would be at stake, published a comment in a Scottish newspaper prior to the election in which he ensured the Scottish public that he was a Unionist “to the bone,” who would do everything he could to ensure that the United Kingdom would not break apart under his leadership.

It is a situation that could become a considerable nuisance for Johnson, who, after endless EU negotiations, is facing the next conflict from within and not from Brussels. In any case, Sturgeon will have no interest in pouring water on Scotland’s independency momentum and will likely further exacerbate the situation. However, it is doubtful whether a few thousand people demonstrating on Scotland’s streets will persuade Johnson to grant what Sturgeon is demanding. The risk is too significant, the possible consequences for the United Kingdom too epochal. Thus, the question is, what would have to happen for Johnson to succumb?

He has witnessed a blueprint – though a somewhat suboptimal one in Spain over these last years. Here, the Catalans demanded independence from Spain and were severely hindered by the Spanish government, including the Constitutional Court ruling against a referendum held in Catalonia in 2017. As a result, the fronts have been hardened fronts and wounds, the healing of which will take years, perhaps decades.

Johnson will, therefore, have to put Scotland on the agenda as soon as practicable to nip Sturgeon’s plan in the bud. To do this, he will undoubtedly utilize the following facts: Scotland would not automatically become a member of the EU if it left the United Kingdom, however, would have to participate in an admission procedure that could last years. The latter will only be possible after leaving the United Kingdom, and ergo would leave Scotland practically out by itself in Europe.

Communicating this scenario and making it appear as unattractive as possible will be Johnson’s ultima ratio. Whether it can be sufficient will be seen in the next few weeks, as it will display how great the urge of the Scottish population for independence is.

L'articolo Scotland Seeks Independence… Again proviene da InsideOver.

He was finding it an uncomfortable experience, booed and jeered on the steps of Bute House, the home of Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. It was July 29, and it was Boris Johnson’s first visit to Edinburgh since becoming Prime Minister of the UK six days before.

There were also awkward games being played between the two leaders.

Johnson attempting to display power by ushering Sturgeon into her own residence, Sturgeon resisting. She said something to him, his arm dropped and he sheepishly made his way over the threshold. A symbolic moment? Perhaps. Maybe it was nothing more than the pretence of, apparently, polite politicians with diametrically opposed agendas acting out their own power plays using body language. Or, was it something more significant?

Maybe it was a symbolic confidence that the First Minister displayed, a feeling within and without her government that Scotland is moving firmly toward a renewed demand for a second independence referendum – the so-called Indyref2 (to distinguish it from the first independence referendum the nationalists lost on September 18, 2014).

There is little doubt Boris Johnson’s election as Prime Minister has worked for Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish independence movement.

In a country that voted 62 per cent to 38 per cent to remain in the EU, Johnson’s position as one the major leaders of the 2016 leave campaign has made him extremely unpopular north of the border. Marry this to his own bullish advocacy of a ‘no deal’ exit of the EU and you get some idea of why a growing number of Scots don’t want to be ruled by Johnson or his government.

Earlier this year Sturgeon, picking up on the growing discontent coalescing around the Brexit fiasco, published a bill on a second referendum on May 29. Johnson’s Conservative leadership win and subsequent appointment as UK Prime Minister seems to have strengthened her position.

A recent poll of people living in Scotland has also given Sturgeon and her ruling SNP (Scottish National Party) a boost.

The survey conducted by Lord Ashcroft and published on August 5, suggests that, for the first time since March 2017, there was a majority of Scots in favour of leaving the UK.

Of those polled, 46 per cent said they would say yes in an independence referendum while 43 per cent said they would vote to remain in the United Kingdom. While The National, a pro-independence newspaper declared that those wanting independence was ‘soaring ahead’, the statistics from Ashcroft’s poll were, in the end, inconclusive, with 11 per cent undecided.

Removing those who are undecided from the poll would, of course, give us 52 per cent to 48 per cent in favour of breakaway – as some UK newspapers pointed out. Arguably, however, 11 per cent is a sizeable sample holding sway in what could be a very tight contest, and far too large a grouping to simply ignore.

“The most recent opinion poll is clearly a reaction to the sudden upheaval at Westminster. There have been nearly 100 polls since the first independence referendum and 87 per cent of those have found majority support for remaining in the UK.” Pamela Nash, CEO of Scotland In Union, a pro UK remain group told Inside Over. “The challenges that Scotland would face if we broke away from the rest of the UK remain unchanged. That includes tax rises and public service cuts which would hit the poorest in society, and scrapping the British pound.”

And, she continued:

“Predictably, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP are using Boris Johnson’s victory to launch yet another attempt to divide us… the very last thing Scotland needs is another divisive independence referendum and more constitutional chaos.”

To hold another independence referendum would also require the consent of a London government, but not everyone wants to wait for that.

Former Scottish Justice Minister Kenny MacAskill writing in The Scotsman intimated that he might be inclined to go for a Catalan style referendum, but many among the independence movement view this as foolhardy and irresponsible.

The sight of Nicola Sturgeon, John Swinney, Kenny MacAskill et al being bundled into a car whisked to Glasgow airport and exile in Belgium with Carles Piugdemont is surely the stuff of Hollywood, not Holyrood (The Scottish Parliament).

Conversely, independence movements are happy to play the long game.

“We would Like to see more polls leaning towards yes before making any further moves towards an independence referendum,” Scott McMurray of Saltires for Independence told me. “We do think we would win as it stands, but we want to be sure of it. I think as long as Boris Johnson continues to focus on a no-deal Brexit there will continue to be a steady increase in support for independence.”

Johnson is set to take the UK out of the European Union on October 31 if there is no deal over Brexit. Former Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, has warned that the inflexibility of Johnson and the UK government on this issue might be a tipping point and their actions break up the United Kingdom.

Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon may feel that the political stars are beginning to align for her. But she also knows that she has to make a strong case for another independence referendum based on the perceived will of the Scottish people to self-determine their future. She needs a clear sign from the Scots that they clearly WANT independence.

It would prove difficult in those circumstances for any government in London, even one led by Boris Johnson, to deny any request for Indyref2.

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When the Scots originally voted to remain in the United Kingdom (UK) in September 2014, they did so with the implicit understanding that they would also be remaining in the European Union (EU) as part of the UK.  One of the major counterarguments to Scotland’s leaving the UK was that it was not guaranteed that the EU would admit a separatist Scotland (due to EU member Spain’s ongoing conflict with separatist Catalonia). Now that England has effectively decided for the whole UK to leave the EU over overwhelming Scottish support for remaining in the EU, Scotland’s rationale for remaining in the UK to maintain EU membership no longer holds.

In the June 2016 Brexit referendum, 62% of Scottish voters wanted to “Remain” in the EU. In spite of this sentiment, Scotland’s decision to remain in the UK in September 2014 may have positively influenced the UK’s decision to exit from the EU in June 2016.  Had the Scots decided in the fall of 2014 to forge their own path, the remaining English, Welsh, and Northern Irish may have felt less sure of their united ability to stand as an independent nation divorced from European support. In other words, by voting to remain in the EU, the Scots may have inadvertently propelled the UK towards leaving the EU itself.

Philosophically, the Scots now have a major question to ask themselves: do they feel more secure tethered to a go-it alone United Kingdom; or would they rather strike out with the European Union?  Time may be rapidly running out for the Scots to make their decision; this past week, newly installed British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited a skittish Scotland. In reaction to his visit, First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon stated, “…whatever Boris Johnson might be saying publicly about his preference being to strike a deal, in reality he is really pursuing a no-deal Brexit…I think that is extremely dangerous for Scotland…”  The First Minister also suggested that how Brexit played out would influence the timing of the proposed second Scottish independence referendum.

In other words, Brexit has shaken Scotland’s certainty in even the meaning of its national decision to remain in the UK.  Had the UK voted to remain in the EU, the existential question on Scotland’s place within the UK could have been put to rest. Now, England’s opposing desire to leave the EU has highlighted an inescapable fact: England can always out-vote Scotland on all important matters relating to Scotland’s relationship to the EU.

An ideal tonic for Scotland’s uncertain future relationship with the UK and the EU is clear: the holding of a second Scottish independence referendum currently championed by the First Minister.  In fact, the formal request for one has already been submitted to the British Parliament, which has promptly tabled the question while it does battle upon itself over the implementation of Brexit.  The Scots surely thought, as then-Prime Minister David Cameron did when he originally called for the Brexit referendum, that the UK as a whole would side with remaining within the EU. That this conventional wisdom was proved wrong is all the more reason to give the Scots another chance to weigh their nation’s future in light of recent developments.

In conclusion, ‘facts on the ground’ have evolved to a point where a second Scottish independence referendum is not only politically possible, but necessary to gauge whether Scots wish to remain within the new United Kingdom they find themselves in post-Brexit referendum.  For the British Parliament to refuse them a second referendum in light of the massive impact the impending Brexit event will have on the culture, identity, and economy of Scotland would be a disservice to the Scottish people. The Scots clearly wish to remain members of the European Union; what is unclear is whether they still wish to remain subjects of the British Crown.

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