On Tuesday, November 5, Turkey’s Erdogan said the Kurdish militia YPG (People’s Protection Units) had not yet withdrawn from some areas within the Safe Zone that Turkey aims at establishing in northeastern Syria. The Turkish president also stated that US forces were still patrolling the areas alongside Kurdish fighters.

The agreement Turkey reached with the United States earlier in October to establish a cease-fire in areas of conflict, such as Ras al-Ayn, required that YPG fighters should withdraw from the Safe Zone in return of Turkey stopping its offensive.

Yet President Erdogan, who is expected to visit the White House on November 13, said areas in the Safe Zone were “not cleared of terrorists.” “Terrorists have not been taken out of either Tel Rifaat or Manbij,” he said, referring to two Syrian towns near the Turkish borders where he said Kurdish fighters were still present.

The Turkish president also said that YPG fighters were still present in east Ras al-Ayn, a town that should be under Turkish control according to the Sochi agreement as well. Ankara had reached the agreement with Moscow in late October in Sochi, Russia.

Both the United States and Russia previously said YPG fighters had left border areas. Calling into question both countries’ statements, President Erdogan also said on Tuesday that Turkey would only abide by its deals with Russia and the United States if the two countries keep their promises.

“How can we explain America holding patrols with terrorist organizations in this region even though they made the decision to withdraw? This is not our agreement,” he said.

The Safe Zone

The Turkish incursion into Syrian territory in early October draws from Ankara’s goals of establishing a buffer zone in northeastern Syria along its borders. The idea of instituting a “safe zone” in the region is not novel, and Turkish officials have been enunciating the exact terminology as regards the Syrian frontier since 2015 at least.

But in last spring —after Erdogan’s party the AKP lost a number of seats, including the municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul— the Turkish president and his officials doubled on referring to the safe zone. Other actors in the Syrian conflict appeared to turn a deaf ear so far.

“Our wish is to reach an agreement on the safe zone and put it into action as soon as possible. Otherwise, we will have to do what is necessary by ourselves,” Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said in last July.

In 1998, Turkey had reached a similar deal with Syria —the Adana agreement— following a diplomatic crisis and clashes in the Turkish-Syrian borders. The Adana agreement required shutting down PKK paramilitary training camps in northern Syria and gave Turkey the right to intervene within a depth of 6km in Syrian territory along the whole border.

The 10-point agreement of Sochi is analogous to the Adana one, except for its greater proportions. President Erdogan first initiated the Safe Zone project as we know now in the United Nations in late September this year. With a map in hands, he showed a buffer zone that would run 30km deep into Syrian lands and some 480km along the border.

“Operation Peace Spring”

President Erdogan insisted that Turkey’s objective of establishing the buffer zone – also called “Peace Corridor” – was that of humanitarian measures. When proposing his idea in the United Nations, he said Turkey aimed at resettling some 2 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey in towns located within the Safe Zone.

Turkey currently hosts some 3.6 million Syrian refugees, more than any other neighbouring nation (920,000 in Lebanon, 655,000 in Jordan and 229,000 in Iraq). President Erdogan often threatened to “open the gates of Europe” to the refugees if the European Union calls Turkey’s recent military campaign in Syria an invasion.

Moreover, Turkey dubbed its incursion in northeast Syria “Operation Peace Spring”, and President Erdogan, with this approach, sought not only an international approval, but also that of some Turkish voters who have shown increasing resentment against Syrian refugees amid economic difficulties.

On the same Tuesday of November 5, a survey published by Turkish pollster Metropoll showed President Erdogan’s approval among Turks surged during October (the month in which the cross-border incursion was set off after President Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from northeast Syria).

The survey indicated that the Turkish president’s approval rate among the people rose by 3.7 points to 48% (the highest rate for the president since his re-election last year), whereas his disapproval rate fell by 9.3 points to 33.7% (the lowest since 2016, when President Erdogan underwent a failed coup).

A Conflict-torn “Peace Corridor”

But despite the emphasis on the incursion’s humanitarian and peace-related facet, the areas that fall within the buffer zone currently stand as Syria’s most conflicted. Thousands of Kurdish families fled their homes after Turkey advanced in its incursion.

Some of the raids the Turkish forces have carried out were said to have hit civilians.

The YPG militia has long controlled the area and served as an armed wing to the PYG (Democratic Union Party), a Kurdish party that formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with other political factions in 2015 to fight Islamic State in Syria.

Turkey considers both the YPG and PYG terrorist groups because of their ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been in sporadic conflicts with Turkish authorities since 1984.

By displacing hundreds of thousands of Kurds through conflict and resettling Syrian refugees in areas they are not necessarily from, analysts say, Turkey will also remodel the regional demographics in northeast Syria.

The Kurdish forces have controlled the northeastern region of Syria since 2013, when al-Assad’s forces were driven south in fights against Islamic State. The Kurds also controlled areas in the northwest, such as al-Bab, Jarabulus and Afrin, but Turkey seized those areas after a number of attacks in 2016 and 2018.

For Ankara, having a Kurdish autonomous region at close quarters is a substantial threat, as the whole region could quickly constitute a rear base for the PKK.

Al-Assad’s Bitter Victory

Al-Assad’s regime condemned Turkey’s violation of Syrian territory, yet paradoxically benefits from the Sochi agreement insofar as its plan helps his government forces to regain territories conceded to the Kurds during the war.

The Sochi agreement stated that YPG forces should retreat from the Safe Zone and that Turkey would hold control of an area covering Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn (where Turkey said it would resettle 2 million refugees).

For Russia, which has long vouched for al-Assad’s government, the priority is to turn the tide by helping the Syrian government to regain territory in hopes of reconstituting a major regional ally.

Before Turkey’s incursion, the Syrian government only had about 60% of national territories. Regaining the areas the Kurds held can constitute up to 75% of Syrian land.

As both Turkey and al-Assad’s regime engage in a race to seize territory pushing back Kurdish forces, the Kurds’ aspirations to form an autonomous Kurdistan after the fall of Islamic State seem to be trailing off.

L'articolo Behind Turkey’s Obsession With Syria’s Safe Zone proviene da InsideOver.

Life may never completely return to normal for Syrian refugees displaced by a decade-long civil war, but their plight could at least be treated with dignity and basic respect for humanity. Instead, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has seen fit to use their situation as one would use a card in a game of poker. After receiving approval from United States President Donald Trump, Turkish forces immediately stormed across the Syrian border in an attempt to carve out what Erdogan called a “safe zone.”

Blackmail

As many members in the international community, practically all world powers with the exception of Russia, condemned the wholesale slaughter of Kurds living in a land Erdogan intends for the resettlement of Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey. When European leaders spoke out against the stunning Turkish offensive, Erdogan audaciously tried to blackmail them into silence. 

“We will open the gates and send 3.6 million refugees your way,” Erdogan promised if European leaders continue to label the Turkish attack as an “occupation.” 

Turkey hosts the most refugees of any nation, including 3.6 million Syrians. While it was originally incredibly welcoming of them, Turks have shifted their opinions recently, especially this year, amid an economic downturn. It is difficult to point to one particular factor that has led to economic decline, but the Turks do their best to try by scapegoating Syrians. In the June elections, Syrian refugees were said to be a top issue for voters who turned their fury upon Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, losing him the Istanbul mayorship. 

Now, in his way, Erdogan is telling the world, “Look, I have a solution to our problem, now keep your mouth shut before it becomes your problem.” The President of the European Council would have none of it, however.

German Response

“We will never accept that refugees are weaponised and used to blackmail us,” said Donald Tusk. It is Europe that helped create this problem, though, after it cut a deal with Erdogan in 2016. It promised six billion euros to serve as a buffer between European states and Syria. In many ways that worked – the number of arrivals fell from 1,015,078 to less than 400,000. In return, Ankara was charged with accepting migrants the EU refused, either because they failed to apply for asylum or due to their claim being rejected.

Germany accepted the largest number of refugees, although an overwhelming percentage passed through Greece first by boat. Berlin received 800,000 asylum applications in 2016 alone, almost double its total from the previous year. In many ways, this has helped the German economy by boosting the number of skilled labourers. 

“We have reasons – not just soft, feel-good ones – to assist and help and push refugees into vocational training,” said Günter Hirth, economist for the Hanover Chamber of Commerce. “The German economy needs qualified workers.” 

Deal with the Devil

The situation is not a perfect solution for Syrian refugees, however, nor all states hold the same attitude towards them. The asylum process is long and arduous and families can even be separated as some members are approved to enter Germany while others must stay behind. Refugees live in poverty with an often uncertain future. Naturally, there have also been integration issues as well.

Erdogan has on several occasions claimed that the six billion euros offered by the EU is no longer sufficient to meet the demands migrants impose on the Turkish economy. Therefore, his best idea is to simply get rid of them, whether it be back to Syria or Europe, it matters little to Erdogan. The EU is not without blame however as it simply agreed to pay Ankara to deal with the problem while turning a blind eye to its actions. Furthermore, by cutting a deal with Erdogan in 2016, it showed that the EU is willing to pay to keep the problem off its doorstep and there is money to be made by politicizing the Syrian crisis. 

Some diplomats are warning the flow of migrants through Turkey has already begun to pick up. The UN recorded 45,600 arrivals so far this year. The solution may be to unite Europe under a single asylum policy, one that would include every state carrying its fair share of the burden. 

“If we leave all the countries on the EU’s external border (to fend for themselves), there will never be a common European asylum policy,” German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said. “And if there is no common European asylum policy, there is a danger that uncontrolled immigration will once again take place, throughout Europe. We have seen this before and I do not want it to happen again.”

Regardless of how the EU decides its collective policy, it must also grapple with how to negotiate with Erdogan. As Turkey is not a member of the Protocol to the Refugee Convention, some critics argue the 2015 deal should be null and void as Ankara does not guarantee protection to those under its wing. This detail is of little concern to a dictator who is willing to simply push the problem back into Syria, at the expense of the Kurds, or leverage them against the EU, also by pushing the problem out of Turkey. 

There exists no easy solution when dealing with a strongman like Erdogan, but the EU must deal with him nevertheless. It can either act more forceful than the Turkish president in an attempt to break him or it can be more merciful and accept refugees with open arms.

L'articolo Erdogan Threatens EU with Refugee Flood proviene da InsideOver.

The real purpose behind Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s intransigent attitude regarding the establishment of a so-called Safe Zone in northeast Syria is becoming more evident day after day. The Turkish leader is trying to hit two or more birds with one stone; neutralising the danger of an independent Kurdish entity in the area and resettling millions of Syrian refugees – mainly pro-Turkish – in the vast sways of land largely controlled by US-backed Kurds.

Colourful and promising as these plans might sound, the feasibility on the ground remains extremely doubtful and far-fetched for many reasons. For instance, there is great rejection from a majority of the refugees from Syria’s hinterland, Damascus eastern suburbs and southern provinces, to resettle in a strange area hundreds of kilometres away from their historical hometowns and what they have left behind with the hope of returning home one day.

The massive cost of building an infrastructure for millions in a historically farming region and the opposition by the Syrian government, who views the Turkish-US scheme as direct foreign intervention in its internal affairs, to changing the demographic fabric of the country in a manner that jeopardises the integrity of Syria and breaches its sovereignty are further complicating factors that face the Turkish plan.

“By making east of the Euphrates a safe place, and depending on the depth of this safe zone, we can resettle two to three million displaced Syrians currently living in our country and Europe,” Erdogan told an audience of academics in Ankara on Wednesday.

Turkish Expansionist Greed Revisited

The majority of Syrians suspect the real goals behind Erdogan’s long push for the establishment of the safe zone in northeast Syria. Their doubts are well based, given Turkish annexation 80 years ago of historically Syrian Iskenderun province; 5000 square kilometres (half the size of Lebanon) of Syrian territories were given to Turkey by colonial France in a deal that followed World War 1 in a rigged referendum. The strategic province had belonged to the Aleppo Vilayet (province) and was the city’s only port on the Mediterranean during the Ottoman occupation of Syria. More recently, the recurrent Turkish incursions and later occupation, directly or by proxy, of Efren and other towns and areas close to the Turkish borders in western Syria. Current Turkish plots for Syrian northeast are widely viewed here as another form of occupation that the Syrian government has pledged to confront by all available means.

Patrolling a Minefield

Joint American-Turkish patrols have started monitoring the newly declared safe zone in northeast Syria, following a barrage of Turkish and American reciprocal threats and counter-threats regarding the area that spans hundreds of kilometres along the Syrian-Turkish borders. The Trump administration gave in to Turkish demands here following assurances by Ankara that it will not target the US-backed PYD Kurdish militia and its supporters in the region.

How safe will the safe zone be? Who will convince the Syrian Kurds in the northeast – a historical nightmare for Turkey – to give up their control of Syria’s richest oil and gas lands? The Kurdish dream of an independent entity that not long ago came closer than ever? What will they get in return?

Syrians, Iranians and even Russians insist that the integrity of Syrian territories should not be compromised under any deal or solution to the over 8-year conflict that has ravaged large areas of the country. The safe zone is a blatant breach of that very premise. So many intricate questions need to be addressed and mutually agreed upon before the safe zone can be considered ‘safe’ enough to enjoy any genuine chance of survivability.

Syrian Kurds, Biggest losers?

In a worst-case scenario whereby both big players, the US and Turkey decide to share the riches of the area east of the Euphrates, Syrian Kurds might once again find themselves the biggest losers in a deal between the two top dogs who have long had their eyes on the massiveSyrian oil and gas reserves.

Moreover, given the historical blood-littered heritage between Turkey and Kurds in Iraq, Turkey and Syria, it is difficult to envisage a long-lasting coexistence between the two anywhere, let alone in this strategically important zone.

Paradoxically enough, Syrian Kurds have had good ties with both Russia and the United States. Given the conflicting agendas of the parties involved in the deal, some form of popular resistance or hostilities remains a high probability and the safe zone might well prove to be nothing more a massive minefield for the Turks in particular.

L'articolo How Safe Is Syria’s Safe Zone? proviene da InsideOver.