During a news conference in Moscow on Thursday, Alexey Zaytsev, deputy spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that Russian and Turkish delegations will discuss the Libyan conflict and a possible ceasefire declaration. According to Zaytsev, the third round of consultations will be held in Moscow in the near future as the previous two rounds of consultations were held in Turkey. One was held in Istanbul in June and the other in Ankara in July.

This is a promising development, but if the third consultation goes ahead as planned, there are many obstacles that both countries need to overcome if they want to restore peace and stability to Libya.

The Libyan People Must Be Involved

If they want to avoid the mistakes that were made during the 2015 peace agreement in Morocco and the 2018 Paris summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan need to consult the Libyan people more. It is encouraging that Russian Ambassador Aleksei Erkho recently stated that a political solution to the conflict lies in the Libyan people themselves, and he is the first foreign official to recognize this. Thomas M. Hill of the US Institute of Peace believes that Libya’s citizens have played an active role in making peace a reality through initiatives like successfully convincing young people in the city of Misrata to quit the local militia. Therefore, both Ankara and Moscow should listen to the Russian Ambassador’s words if they want to end tensions in Libya.

Can Turkey Ease Tensions With Egypt?

Before Putin and Erdoğan have any hope of resolving their differences, Turkey should end its hostilities toward Egypt. Both Cairo and Moscow support the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, whilst the Turkish President supports the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Egypt is anxious that the GNA seeks to regain control over the LNA-controlled city of Sirte, which is vital for control over the nation’s oil sector. At the end of July, Egypt sent soldiers to Syria’s northwestern Aleppo province, near Idlib. Some 150 Egyptian soldiers arrived in Aleppo’s rural areas, and some have been deployed in the city of Saraqib to the south of Idlib. This proves that as tensions between Turkey and Egypt escalate, the latter’s forces are arriving closer to Turkish borders. Because of this reason alone, the third consultation would need to proceed as soon as possible to prevent Ankara and Cairo from going to war.

Sirte is the Key to Peace Between Russia and Turkey

The problem Putin has going into the third consultation is that Erdoğan has the upper hand in the Libyan conflict. Since the start of June, increased Turkish support has allowed pro-GNA forces to seize control of northwest Libya, which devastated Haftar’s plans to occupy Tripoli. Equally, Sirte provides Russia with a bargaining chip during the third consultation as the city is a gateway to dominate the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast. Fehim Tastekin of Al-Monitor argues that Turkey could acquiesce to Russian control over the city of al-Jufra in exchange for Turkish control over Sirte.

If the third consultation is a success, another outstanding issue is the interest that the USA and France have in ending this conflict. Considering US President Donald Trump supports the GNA, this provides the latter with leverage as they have the world’s most powerful country on their side. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron backs the LNA. Both leaders could counter the influence Moscow and Ankara have in Libya, but it remains yet to be seen whether Putin and Erdoğan would want them to get involved, especially when you consider France’s recent dispute with Turkey and the USA’s lack of interest in Libya in general.

The Libyan war has been happening for far too long and many nations that have got involved in it have only made it worse. The third consultation seems hopeful, but there is a long way to go yet before peace is restored to Libya.

L'articolo How Can Turkey and Russia Resolve Their Differences Over Libya? proviene da InsideOver.

After Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s soldiers attacked Turkish positions in Syria, Ankara retaliated quickly, followed by a threat from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Syrian Army Killed Turkish Soldiers: Ankara

The Syrian army killed four Turkish soldiers as it advanced to the last major rebel stronghold in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, according to the Turkish government in Ankara. Nine others were injured, one of them seriously, the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced on Monday.

Turkish troops reacted to the attack and destroyed several targets in Idlib. 30 to 35 Syrian soldiers are said to have been “incapacitated,” according to remarks by President Erdogan prior to his trip to Ukraine. It was initially unclear whether these were government soldiers.

Erdogan: ‘We Will Continue To Ask For An Account Of This’

It was not possible to leave such an attack unanswered. “We will continue to ask for an account of this.” To Russia, Erdogan warned: “You should not stand in our way.”

Assad’s forces⁠—supported by Russia⁠—attacked the area despite reportedly having been previously warned of the positions of the Turkish forces. Assad’s forces are advancing with the support of the Russian Air Force and have already taken over dozens of locations, including the important city of Maarat al-Numan. The recent offensive by government forces is driving hundreds of thousands of people to flee. Turkey, which has already taken in 3.6 million Syrians, fears a further influx of refugees from the neighboring country in the south.

Erdogan Threatens Turkish Deployment

Erdogan has threatened a military offensive in northwest Syria if the situation in Idlib was not immediately resolved. “We will do what is necessary when someone threatens our territory,” he said on Friday, noting that this provision includes the possible use of force.

Turkey has twelve observation posts in the Idlib region. The soldiers are said to be keeping a ceasefire in several of the rebel-held areas that have been agreed upon. The Syrian government has accused Turkey of undermining Syrian security by allowing thousands of foreign fighters to fight the Syrian military.

Russia’s Reaction To The Attack On Turkish Troops

The Russian military announced on Monday that the Turkish side had not informed the Russians of their movements and, as a result, came under fire from the Syrian government troops who are targeting⁠—by their accounts⁠—terrorists west of Sarakib in the Idlib province. A lack of communication is thus one explanation for the attack on the Turkish convoy.

A second explanation is that the attack could be a message from Russia to Turkey to stay outside its borders. However, given the relationship Moscow and Ankara have established over the previous year, in particular, it seems inconceivable that Russian President Vladimir Putin would risk jeopardizing the latter by conducting a military operation against Turkey in Syria at this point.

The Importance Of Idlib

Idlib is the last major rebel area after nine years of civil war. Turkey maintains twelve observation posts there, which are supposed to monitor a ceasefire. They were established on the basis of an agreement between Russia⁠—Assad’s main ally⁠—and Turkey in September 2018.

Idlib is controlled by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militia, which is similar to Al Qaeda. Syria and Russia argue that their attacks are against terrorists, and the violence caused by military actions in the province had increased significantly as of late. Even the ceasefire proclaimed by Russia three weeks ago has so far not stopped the violence. Moreover, the latest development displays how volatile the situation remains. Turkey adding another layer of complexity to the conflict by its sheer presence was highly likely, however, few had expected the situation to escalate this rapidly.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of people are on the run from Syria. Turkey⁠— which has already taken in nearly four million Syrians⁠—fears that the situation on its border will result in yet another influx of refugees.

L'articolo Turkey’s Retaliation Kills Up To Thirty-Five Syrian Soldiers proviene da InsideOver.