Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sacked Prime Minister Imad Khamis during a time when protesters are demonstrating against Syria’s economic woes. Syria’s state media did not provide a reason for the decision to fire Khamis, but the Prime Minister’s dismissal will have consequences for Assad’s faltering regime regardless.

Furthermore, the Syrian President could not have picked a worse time to dismiss Khamis. Syria has been damaged by numerous factors including nine years of conflict, years of Western sanctions, government infighting and corruption, the coronavirus and an economic downturn worsened by Lebanon’s financial crisis. Fully 80 percent of Syrians are currently living in poverty.

Assad Sacked Khamis at the Worst Time

The Syrian currency dropped to a record 3,500 pounds to the dollar on the black market- compared to 700 at the start of the year.

Rami Makhlouf, Assad’s cousin and the richest businessman in Syria, had his assets seized by the Syrian Government in May due to his ownership of one of the nation’s largest firms called Syriatel. Makhlouf used to bankroll Syria’s infamous security forces who tortured thousands of people during the height of the country’s civil war in 2011. After the Syrian President lost the support of one of the most prominent members of his family, his regime’s legitimacy was further damaged.

US Sanctions on Syria Set to Ramp Up

To add to Assad’s woes, the toughest US sanctions come into effect next week. Washington claims that these sanctions aim to punish the Syrian President and his allies for crimes committed during the nation’s conflict. They prevent anyone from around the globe doing business with Syrian officials and state institutions. They also target anyone involved in smuggling to Syria, mostly from Iraq and Lebanon.

The new law is called the US Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act.

Khamis’s sacking has only made the Syrian President weaker than ever before, though it is not the only factor that has damaged his government over time. The only saving grace that he has is that neither Russia nor Iran are interested in removing him from office for now.

However, in the longer term Moscow and Tehran may carve up Syria between themselves and Turkey. Iran may use the south of the country as a means to threaten Israel, while Russia and Turkey may use the north to resettle refugees. This solution would also be the best way for the three nations to crush the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, but it also proves that Assad is so vulnerable that his fate depends upon Putin.

Assad’s Fate Depends on Putin

Politico’s Charles Lister anticipates that this extraordinary internal crisis could trigger a change at the top. This scenario could happen due to disillusion with the severe poverty crippling Syria and the increasing numbers of people challenging Assad’s regime, but Moscow would need convincing that the Syrian President needs to go due to the leverage the Russians have over Assad’s fate.

It is dangerous for Russia to have so much influence over Damascus, and to make the situation worse China seems to be taking an interest in Syria’s recovery. A warehouse that belongs to Mohammed Jarah and Ahmad Bustati symbolized Beijing’s emergence as the largest supplier of consumer and industrial goods to Syria. The warehouse was stocked with Chinese laser cutting machines.

The US Must Increase Involvement in Syria

The US must shift its priorities toward Syria and take advantage of the Syrian President’s weakened position. The State Department has been consulting with Moscow behind the scenes on a new diplomatic process, and Washington has an opportunity to make clear to the Russians that they can secure some form of power-sharing and a ceasefire to ease the economic costs that maintaining Assad’s regime has on Moscow. By engaging with the Russian Government, political prisoners may be released in the long-term, and the Syrian regime could reform its constitution.

Assad’s weakened position following the sacking of his Prime Minister is an opportunity for America to work with others to bring stability to Syria, which is what is happening in Libya. It is time for Trump to seize his moment.

L'articolo Has Assad’s Sacking of His Prime Minister Made Him Weaker? proviene da InsideOver.

After Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s soldiers attacked Turkish positions in Syria, Ankara retaliated quickly, followed by a threat from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Syrian Army Killed Turkish Soldiers: Ankara

The Syrian army killed four Turkish soldiers as it advanced to the last major rebel stronghold in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, according to the Turkish government in Ankara. Nine others were injured, one of them seriously, the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced on Monday.

Turkish troops reacted to the attack and destroyed several targets in Idlib. 30 to 35 Syrian soldiers are said to have been “incapacitated,” according to remarks by President Erdogan prior to his trip to Ukraine. It was initially unclear whether these were government soldiers.

Erdogan: ‘We Will Continue To Ask For An Account Of This’

It was not possible to leave such an attack unanswered. “We will continue to ask for an account of this.” To Russia, Erdogan warned: “You should not stand in our way.”

Assad’s forces⁠—supported by Russia⁠—attacked the area despite reportedly having been previously warned of the positions of the Turkish forces. Assad’s forces are advancing with the support of the Russian Air Force and have already taken over dozens of locations, including the important city of Maarat al-Numan. The recent offensive by government forces is driving hundreds of thousands of people to flee. Turkey, which has already taken in 3.6 million Syrians, fears a further influx of refugees from the neighboring country in the south.

Erdogan Threatens Turkish Deployment

Erdogan has threatened a military offensive in northwest Syria if the situation in Idlib was not immediately resolved. “We will do what is necessary when someone threatens our territory,” he said on Friday, noting that this provision includes the possible use of force.

Turkey has twelve observation posts in the Idlib region. The soldiers are said to be keeping a ceasefire in several of the rebel-held areas that have been agreed upon. The Syrian government has accused Turkey of undermining Syrian security by allowing thousands of foreign fighters to fight the Syrian military.

Russia’s Reaction To The Attack On Turkish Troops

The Russian military announced on Monday that the Turkish side had not informed the Russians of their movements and, as a result, came under fire from the Syrian government troops who are targeting⁠—by their accounts⁠—terrorists west of Sarakib in the Idlib province. A lack of communication is thus one explanation for the attack on the Turkish convoy.

A second explanation is that the attack could be a message from Russia to Turkey to stay outside its borders. However, given the relationship Moscow and Ankara have established over the previous year, in particular, it seems inconceivable that Russian President Vladimir Putin would risk jeopardizing the latter by conducting a military operation against Turkey in Syria at this point.

The Importance Of Idlib

Idlib is the last major rebel area after nine years of civil war. Turkey maintains twelve observation posts there, which are supposed to monitor a ceasefire. They were established on the basis of an agreement between Russia⁠—Assad’s main ally⁠—and Turkey in September 2018.

Idlib is controlled by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militia, which is similar to Al Qaeda. Syria and Russia argue that their attacks are against terrorists, and the violence caused by military actions in the province had increased significantly as of late. Even the ceasefire proclaimed by Russia three weeks ago has so far not stopped the violence. Moreover, the latest development displays how volatile the situation remains. Turkey adding another layer of complexity to the conflict by its sheer presence was highly likely, however, few had expected the situation to escalate this rapidly.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of people are on the run from Syria. Turkey⁠— which has already taken in nearly four million Syrians⁠—fears that the situation on its border will result in yet another influx of refugees.

L'articolo Turkey’s Retaliation Kills Up To Thirty-Five Syrian Soldiers proviene da InsideOver.

As Iran’s missiles whizzed over the dark skies of Iraq, President Bashar al-Assad was hosting President Vladimir Putin of Russia who had arrived in the country secretly. It was the first time Putin was visiting Damascus since the outbreak of the uprising that sought to overthrow Assad.

Although he had visited Syria in 2017, his visit was restricted to Russia’s military base at Hmeimim on the Mediterranean coast.

Apart from meeting Russian forces, the two leaders visited the Mariamite Cathedral of Damascus, one of the oldest Greek Orthodox churches in the world.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Damascus for a visit during which he met President Assad at the Headquarters of the Russian forces,” said a statement from the Kremlin.

While the statement did not mention the growing tension between the US and Iran, the timing of Putin’s visit was bound to raise eyebrows, since it happened just a week after the killing of General Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike.

According to the Washington Institute, “In carrying out Russian policy in the Middle East, Putin has always leaned closer to the Iran-Syria bloc. In particular deploying forces to protect the Assad regime has brought the Russian Iranian partnership to unprecedented heights.”

Putin’s visit could be interpreted from two perspectives. First, he was there to reinforce Russia’s strategy in Syria following the weakening of the Iranian position after the elimination of General Qassem.

Qassem was a key player in Moscow’s and Iran’s strategy in Syria and worked hard to achieve the objectives of propping up Assad and protecting his regime. Russia’s response to his death was therefore predictable.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry released a statement condemning America for “an adventurist act” adding that, “The move by Washington is fraught with grave consequences for regional peace and stability. We regard such actions as detrimental to finding solutions to complex problems of the Middle East and rather contributing to escalation in violence.”

Similar views were expressed by Russian Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Mr Konstantin Kosachev, who said “The killing of Gen. Soleimani in Baghdad in no way contributes to the improvement of the situation in Iraq and the entire Middle East. Its negative implications, however, are already obvious.”

In 2011, when Assad’s regime appeared to be on the verge of collapse, Qassem as the head of the Revolutionary Guards foreign wing, Quds Force, organised hundreds of Shiite militias from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran to bolster Assad’s military which was greatly overstretched.

In him, the Russian’s who were greatly opposed to the removal of Assad found a key ally and a military strategist with whom they could work together.

In July 2015, Qassem was invited to Moscow for a secret meeting to discuss Russia’s military involvement in Syria. The meeting resulted in Putin ordering Russian Air Force to carry out major strikes in Syria From Iran. It was the first time a military operation was being staged from Iranian soil since World War II.

Working closely with the Russians, militia forces organised by Qassem captured major cities and hundreds of rebels. When Aleppo was wrestled from the rebels in 2016, it was Qassem who visited the city. Following the victories, the Russian’s considered him a great strategist and thinker, and invited him a number of times to Moscow where he held meetings with senior military officers

His death was, therefore, a major blow to Russia’s efforts. And there was no doubt that in the long term it could disrupt the gains made in Syria. That’s why Putin had to make an unplanned visit to Syria.

However, the Washington Institute believes, “Soleimani’s killing will still present challenges to Putin given his reliance on Iran’s help in propping up Bashar al-Assad. If Iran is weekend, Moscow risks getting bogged down in the type of costly quagmire it has worked hard to avoid.”

Secondly, Putin to assert  Russia’s influence in the Middle East as a global power.

A statement released after his visit to Damascus said, “Putin told Assad that a huge distance has been travelled on the road to restoring Syrian statehood and territorial integrity”

From this statement, Russia was announcing its position as a key player in the region and a reliable partner who can be counted on in times of crisis.

Russia has always used its involvement in Syria as a tool to assert its influence in the Middle East and its ambitions as a global power. Without any clear policy by the US in the region, the whole situation seemed to have worked in Russia’s favour.

“Putin doesn’t need to do much. He is just watching. Everything you’ve seen for the past year or so, since December 2018 when Trump first announced the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, everything has gone the Kremlin’s way. There’s not much to do, there’s nothing to activate. The Russian policy in that region has been to talk to everybody, to capitalise on an American vacuum,” said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey

Russia’s clear policy in the region has allowed Putin to gain favour with the leaders of France and Germany who have always supported America.

He was the first leader the French President Emmanuel Macron called to discuss the situation just after the killing of General Qassem. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was also travelling to the Kremlin to discuss with him the growing tensions in the Middle East and Iran in particular.

L'articolo The Agenda Behind Putin’s Secret Visit to Syria proviene da InsideOver.