What happened when a plane that was travelling from Athens to Vilnius made an abrupt change of course over Belarus to arrest one of its passenger? That the European Union bars Belarusian airlines from flying over or landing in all 27 member states and that the relations between Belarus and the Ue decrease more and more every day. 

It happens that when Aleksandr Lukashenko ordered to divert a Ryanair flight, the International condemnation rose among anger and fear of Lukashenko’ power. The West but not Russia, Mr Lukashenko’s strongest political ally. 

“What the West has done… for political reasons is completely irresponsible and endangers the safety of passengers,” Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at the end of May when the Eu sanctioned Belarus. “It is time for Brussels to learn how to take effective measures to protect citizens against real, not imaginary, threats,” Zakharova added. 

Despite Eu leaders have demanded the release of 26-year-old opposition activist Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend, Vladimir Putin offered Aleksandr Lukashenko support against the West in Ryanair plane standoff saying that the international reaction to the incident was “an outburst of emotion”.

Putin-Lukashenko relations

What’s next for Lukashenko and his dependence on Russia? In a show of his support to Belarus, Vladimir Putin invited Lukashenko to a bilateral meeting that took place in Sochi, the Russian southern city, one of the numerous meeting between the two leaders often held behind closed doors and without comments to the press. Since August 2020, when Belarusians took the streets of Minsk and several other cities to protest against Lukashenko and his nearly three-decade rule over a disputed election, Putin have continued to meet regularly with Lukashenko. 

Russia and Belarus, which are formally part of a “union state”, have been in talks for years to further integrate their nations, despite Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in March of this year that there were no discussions underway about unifying Russia and Belarus. Probably because Belarus is not Ukraine and a unification won’t be seen as it was the annexation of Crimea. 

Russia’s interest in stable relations with Belarus includes economic, military and political elements. As for the military part, on March 2nd, the two countries’ defense ministries signed a five-year strategic partnership agreement. Belarus and Russia have also announced plans to establish three permanent joint military training centers in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod and Kaliningrad regions and in Belarus’s western Grodno Region, which borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

oil and gas dependence

And then there’s the oil and gas chapter: back to 2020 the two countries have failed to reach an agreement over the terms for the year and the dispute over oil and gas prices has been ongoing since 2016. 2021 started with beneficial terms for Belarus on the 2021 deliveries. The agreement signed between Russia and Belarus reads to ship more than 9.8 million tons of refined oil products via Russian ports: beginning of March 2021 Belarus began exporting refined petroleum products through Russian ports in Ust-Luga and Saint Petersburg, showing the Belarusian economy is effectively propped up by exporting heavily subsidized Russian oil and exporting refined petroleum products. 

Belarus citizens might not have the same opinion, but Belarus has greatly benefited from its relationship with Russia in the last decades, at least since Aleksandr Lukashenko is in power. 

And if Lukashenko acted alone forcing the Ryanair plane to land in Belarus’ capital, he knew from the very beginning Eu would have turned its back on Minsk, but not Moscow. We would have to wait for another semi private meeting between Putin and Lukashenko to see their next moves, or hoping for fair elections in Belarus. But for this, we might see another plane case. 

L'articolo Belarus Dependence from Russia proviene da InsideOver.

Vladimir Putin recently announced his plans for reforms that would reduce the powers of his successor, by watering down the presidency and strengthening parliament. This will involve giving the lower house of parliament (Duma) powers to appoint the prime minister and the cabinet.

This will be different from the current arrangement where the prime minister is appointed by the president before being approved by the parliament. Other proposed changes were: limiting the supremacy of international law, amending the rules on the presidential term and strengthening laws that prohibit presidential candidates who have held citizenship or foreign residency permits.

Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev who resigned with his cabinet after Putin’s announcement said: “These changes, when they are adopted, will introduce substantial changes not only to an entire range of articles of the constitution, but also to the entire balance of power, the power of the executive, the power of the legislature, the power of judiciary”.

He said he was resigning together with his ministers to allow Putin to make important decisions. He had served as President several years back before switching roles with Putin, but what has left many people talking is what Putin is trying to achieve with his reforms.

Reports of plans to introduce constitutional reforms that would enable Putin to be able to cling on to power had first emerged mid last year when Bloomberg claimed that his aides and advisors were working on ways to allow him to prolong his rule. It claimed that among the changes that were being considered were electoral reforms that were to give the Kremlin control over parliament thus enabling Putin to extend his rule.

Shortly after, the speaker of Russia’s parliament Mr, Vyacheslav Volodin published an article titled ‘Living Constitution of Development’, in which he proposed changes to the Russian constitution. Among his proposals was for the parliament to be given more powers to appoint cabinet ministers and prime ministers in what he termed as “the participation of the State Duma (parliament) in the formation of the Government of the Russian Federation.”

He justified his proposals by saying, “A greater balance of power does not boil down to the task of providing checks and balances. The main thing that it should is a higher quality of interaction and coordination of the work of the state mechanism. The quality of a democratic government, which in turn is just necessary for the fullest possible realization of rights and constitutional foundations.”

Bloomberg cited two people close to the Kremlin and one legislator claimed, “Keeping a stronghold on parliament would widen Putin’s room for manoeuvrability. It could potentially allow the 66-year-old Russian president to switch roles, keeping the reign of power as head of the ruling party and prime minister with expanded constitutional authority at the expense of the presidency.”

But this appears not to be the case. Putin is not interested in extending his rule or switching roles with Medvedev to return as a powerful prime minister. He aims to leave the government at the end of his term but continue wielding power behind the scene. Why?

Professor Daniel Treisman of the University of California recently said, “For most autocratic leaders, it has been quite dangerous to leave power. Things have to be going extremely well, and the system has to be stable, to get out without any repercussion.”

Putin has a legacy, allies and interests which he will he need to protect even after he leaves the government. They are so entrenched in the Russian political system that the absence of his patronage would result in a serious disruption. Apart from that, remaining powerful could also help him avoid international legal actions that could come calling after he leaves power. Although at home, he will still enjoy immunity from prosecution under a law passed in 2001.

One state vehicle through which Putin will most probably use to pull the strings in the government after his retirement, is the State Council which he currently chairs. According to the Kremlin, “the State Council is an advisory body that assists the President in guaranteeing coordinated functioning and interaction of the various state bodies of powers.”

The composition of the council leaves no doubt about its influence. Among its members are the “Speaker of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the Speaker of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoys to the federal districts, heads of the highest executive agencies of state power in Russia’s federal constituent entities, and the heads of the political parties in the State Duma.”

Although the work of the council has been advisory, in the latest constitutional proposals Putin wants to enshrine it formally in the constitution to give it clear and substantive powers. Leading such a powerful body would place him over his successor as a supreme leader.

One doesn’t have to be serving in the government to be in the council. As the Kremlin states on its website, “State council can be extended to individuals holding senior positions” but also people “who have extensive experience of public service”. So there is nothing to prevent Putin from serving in the council after his retirement.

A deal between Medvedev and Putin in the latest developments is something nobody can deny. The two have enjoyed close working relationship apart from being close political allies, and whatever they have under their sleeves in these new manoeuvres is still being unravelled.

L'articolo The Cabinet and the Constitution: What is Vladimir Putin up to? proviene da InsideOver.

After the surprising resignation of Russia’s government, the Duma has confirmed Mikhail Mishustin as the country’s new prime minister and successor of Dmitry Medvedev. It was a formality, in which the parliament voted for Mishustin with an overwhelming majority. Putin’s handpicked choice obtained 383 votes in favor, 41 abstentions and zero opposing votes. After the vote, President Putin signed a decree, which made the election official. As a result, Russia has its new prime minister within a day of the former government’s resignation.

In his first remarks in the Duma, Mishustin said that the country must preserve macroeconomic stability, maintain inflation around 4%, and accelerate work on President Putin’s signature programs.

Speculations about a potential successor for Medvedev had been circulating for years as Putin’s former castling partner and Russia’s president between 2008 and 2012 had been notoriously unpopular in the country since he became the prime minister in 2012. A circumstance that had been detrimental to the government’s party United Russia, whose chair Medvedev also occupies.

Nonetheless, the timing of the resignation as well of the choice of the successor has surprised even close observers. In a vital democracy, one would have expected an experienced, idiosyncratic politician, someone who could be the government’s face in and outside the Duma. However, in Putin’s Russia, these individuals are not in high demand. What was needed was an unencumbered personality who is willing to implement the president’s agenda.

Mikhail Mishustin appears to satisfy these requirements. The economist, who holds two PhDs, is considered a loyal technocrat who maintains a closeness to the liberals included in the Putin system, but without their attachment.

In the 1990s, he headed the International Computer Club, an organization that promoted digital technologies in Russia. During his career, he has worked in the Russian civil service for more than 20 years and also worked for the tax authorities, the land registry, and until 2008 he chaired Russia’s agency for special economic zones.

Between 2008 and 2012, Mishustin worked in the private sector as president of an investment company before returning to the tax authorities ten years ago, only this time as its chair. As a loyal civil servant, Mishustin made a name for himself by implementing a fundamental reform of tax administration that consistently relied on digitalization.

The authority is now considered one of the most technologically innovative government agencies in Russia and is also recognized internationally as progressive. Not only companies are the beneficiaries, but ordinary citizens who now have been able to pay their taxes online for years, while tax evasion under his leadership had become increasingly cumbersome, both for companies and private individuals.

Mishustin is not the first non-politician to become prime minister under Putin. Mikhail Fradkov and Viktor Zubkov also held the office previously. Both were considered highly competent business people, but without any political ambition to pursue their agenda. Here, one would assume, lies the blueprint for Mishustin and thus one of the primary reasons why he is Putin’s choice: Mishustin does not appear to have any higher political ambitions or hidden agendas either. Moreover, he is inclined to act neutral towards parliament, while also not being a liability during next year’s parliamentary election.

It is thus unlikely that Mishustin is the long-term solution as Russia’s prime minister, but rather a placeholder, who will not stand in Putin’s way. The latter, given yesterday’s developments, is crucial, as the envisioned constitutional changes and the strengthening of the Duma require the new prime minister to cooperate with the Kremlin.

While these developments have not yet indicated in what capacity Putin will reign from 2024 moving forward, it has nonetheless signaled that he will continue to lead the way in Russia – in one capacity or the other.

L'articolo Mikhail Mishustin, Russia’s New Prime Minister proviene da InsideOver.

In an unprecedented major reshuffle of the Kremlin, Prime Minister Medvedev announced that he and the entire government would resign after Putin had announced not only constitutional amendments but a significant shift within the balance of powers in Russia.

The resignation came as a surprise to people in Russia as well as to observers all over the globe. Not even Russian state TV had been informed about the decision beforehand. With the move, Putin aims to provide the Russian parliament with significantly more power while restraining the abilities of future presidents.

Medvedev moves to the Security Council

According to Medvedev, the resignations aims to provide Putin with the opportunity to initiate the necessary changes in the country. At the same time, the current government would continue to conduct its duties in a caretaker position until a new cabinet is in place. The latter, Medvedev has also confirmed, will be handpicked by Putin.

Medvedev had been Russia’s Prime Minister since 2012 when he ceased to be the country’s president. He is also chairman of the Kremlin’s United Russia party. Now, Medvedev will become the Deputy Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, a body where urgent foreign and security policy issues are conducted and where Putin has also been the president.

As Medvedev’s successor, and thus new Prime Minister of Russia, Putin proposed the head of the national tax authority, Mikhail Mishustin, who has already accepted Putin’s request.

Under Medvedev, the government had gotten under immense pressure due to the country’s economic crisis. A controversial pension reform had also caused major political rifts in recent years. The fact that Medvedev himself remained highly unpopular in Russia never helped the government’s cause either.

Powershift away from the presidency towards the Duma

Prior to the resignation, Putin had proposed a referendum on significant constitutional changes during his traditional state of the union speech. The ultimate result aims to redistribute power away from the presidency and any potential successor towards parliament, the Duma. Inter alia, parliament members, in the future, would select the prime minister as well as the cabinet. So far, the prime minister had been the president’s prerogative, while the Duma was only voting on the president’s pick. Moreover, the Federation Council, Russia’s upper chamber, would gain powers over the appointment of security officials. At the same time, the constitutional position of the State Council, which Putin currently also holds, would see increased powers via the envisioned changes, too.

Nonetheless, Putin stated he was seeking to maintain Russia’s robust presidential system. However, the criteria for presidential candidates would be tightened. The president would thus continue to hold significant powers and retains the right to determine the government’s tasks and priorities, while also being in charge of dismissing the Prime Minister and his government. The president would also maintain “direct control” over the military, police, and secret services.

Moreover, Putin emphasized that the requirements for potential successors would be reestablished. Thus, a candidate would not only have to be Russian but a citizen for at least 25 years, with no dual citizenship. Additional changes that Putin mentioned include the limitation of international law, providing the constitutional court the right to verify whether adopted laws comply with the constitution before they are signed by the president, prohibiting civil servants from holding foreign citizenship, and adding a provision to keep minimum wage and pension above the official poverty line.

In the hour-long address, Putin nonetheless avoided a clear statement about his political future, even though he was in favor of a continuous change of power, which he considers to be an “essential prerequisite for a society to develop further.” Russia was “ready” for such changes, Putin stated at the end of his speech.

What the shakeup indicates

Whether or not the resignation is part of a genuine breakup between the top of Russia’s hierarchy or part of a well-choreographed plan by Putin is uncertain at this stage.

However, with Putin’s term as president ending in 2024 and the current constitutional rules stipulate that the president may only serve two consecutive terms, the shakeup carries similarities from 2008, when Putin faced the same issue and overcame it by becoming prime minister.

With the planned changes to the constitution and the strengthening of the Duma, Putin may attempt to ensure that the power of future presidents is restricted, which is also amplified by Putin’s wish to “enshrine” the state council in the Russian constitution.

While it can only be speculated at this point, the proposed changes indicate that Putin could be preparing for his departure as president, while establishing boundaries that guarantee him to maintain his power nonetheless.

The obvious way would be to become prime minister again – who, by then, would have obtained unprecedented power due to the constitutional changes. However, there is also a different path to maintaining control for Putin and without having to deal with social and economic issues but with the country’s grand strategy only.

Putin is already the head of the Security Council as well as the State Council and could seek to obtain either position for life – but also under additional, significant powers. The fact that Medvedev is joining him as number two in the Security Council might be an indication that this option is, indeed, conceivable.

So far, Putin has de facto led Russia since January 2000 – longer than any Russian or Soviet politician since Stalin.

L'articolo Russia’s Government Resigns While Putin Is Preparing His Future proviene da InsideOver.

In a further blow to Donald Trump’s efforts to rebuild America’s relationship with Russia and its President, Vladimir Putin, CNN has revealed that the US government extracted one of its highest-covert sources inside the Kremlin. This was confirmed by Trump administration officials with direct knowledge of the situation. A person directly involved in the discussions between the US President, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the then-Russian Ambassador to the US Sergey Kislyak, in May 2017, said that the removal of the spy was partly driven by concerns that the Trump administration mishandled classified intelligence.

In these circumstances, the US government made the right decision to withdraw the spy immediately if their life was in danger. They were considered the highest level source for the US inside the Kremlin, high up in the national security infrastructure and they had access to Putin. They could even provide images of documents on the Russian President’s desk. The covert source provided intelligence for more than a decade and an attempt to rescue the spy, after exposure concerns, was rebuffed by the informant.

All attempts to blame Trump for the spy’s withdrawal have been rebuked by the CIA. Brittany Brammel, the CIA director of public affairs, told CNN that the President’s handling of America’s most sensitive intelligence drove an alleged exfiltration operation is ‘inaccurate.’ This was also confirmed by White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham, who accused the news channel of inaccurate reporting. Either way, the affair begs the question as to how he should handle information regarding Putin.

Many in the intelligence community are concerned that the President is mishandling information regarding the Russian President in general. At the G20 summit in Hamburg in May 2017, Trump took the controversial step of confiscating the interpreter’s notes, leading to concerns among intelligence officials that he may have discussed classified intelligence with Putin. Yet the problem is that no one can confirm or deny this is what the two leaders talked about now.

The removal of such a valuable source leaves the US increasingly vulnerable to Putin. The US intelligence community regards China and Russia as the two greatest threats to its national security, and they no longer have a source that can provide the most concrete information on the Russian President. Because of the Russian government’s supposed meddling in the 2016 election, an operation that was conducted by Putin himself according to officials, this affair may justify claims the Trump administration has links to the Kremlin.

Furthermore, it leaves the President in a difficult position as to how to approach the Russians. Although Putin and Trump established a good relationship at the 2017 G20 summit, their relations have been damaged along the way by the 2018 Salisbury poisonings that contributed to the deaths of Sergei Skripal, a former Russian military officer and double agent for the UK’s intelligence services, and his daughter Yulia Skripal. This led to the US sanctioning Moscow further. Trump also blanked the Russian leader at last year’s G20 summit after the Russian seizure of Ukrainian vessels. But at this year’s G20 summit, Putin invited the US President to next year’s Victory Day commemorative events in Moscow.

Trump has good intentions when it comes to the Russians. Relations between the US and Russia have been hostile for a considerable period of time and it helps when two of the world’s most powerful nations are cooperating with each other. But the removal of America’s top spy in the Kremlin only adds to speculation that the US President is too soft on Putin and that the former has links to the latter. It is unclear what the Russian President wants out of this relationship when he is inviting Trump to WW2 celebrations whilst attempting to undermine his allies. This is why the extraction of the US’s most useful spy in the Kremlin is a significant loss to the American intelligence community.

L'articolo Has Trump’s Relationship With Putin Suffered Another Blow? proviene da InsideOver.