As the coronavirus (Covid-19) spreads, the media focus has mainly centered on government action such as the response of the US government which recently passed a massive emergency spending bill.  But there are also large concentrations of refugee camps across the world. These people already face economic hardship, are often politically marginalized, and have fewer resources with which to combat the coronavirus. If these refugees end up encountering the virus, they will be especially hard hit.

What is Life Like in a Refugee Camp?

A Syrian refugee called Nour lives in a Jordanian refugee camp for Syrian refugees. She and her seven family members live in a tent the size of a small living room. This means that they cannot quarantine the elderly members of her family should the virus infect the camp. She must walk a great distance to stand in line for bread. This is some of the only food they get for the day, and thus she would be forced into close contact with many other people. People in the West are told to wash their hands frequently. But Nour and her family can’t even shower on a frequent basis, let alone wash their hands. They have little access to showers for much of the week. Their bathing consists of a bucket of cold water.

NGOs provide food and medical supplies but there often isn’t enough. In the event of an emergency the NGOs would have a difficult time traveling to deliver the aid. And their budgets are already stretched to meet people’s basic needs. Nour and her family are lucky that they have no major health problems. But many have skin, digestive, and respiratory problems which make them fertile targets of the virus.

Refugee Communities are Already Struggling — Coronavirus Would be a Nightmare

Even the refugees that don’t live in camps often have difficulty accessing the health care system of their host countries. They are often politically marginalized since they are new residents and often speak different languages. Analysts report that countries like Jordan can no longer afford to subsidize the cost of immigrants’ health care, thus making the already poor refugees pay more for health care. Therefore, the refugee communities would have a hard time getting even basic care should they get infected.

But the lack of health care is a downstream problem resulting from upstream political decisions. The Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad refused to step down and even gassed his own people, sparking a massive number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees. That produced the first migrant crisis. With Russian support, Assad continues to advance in Idlib and the total number of refugees now totals one million.

Russia and Syria Bear Most Responsibility for This Crisis

Turkey has challenged Russian-backed Syrian soldiers who in turn have struck and killed Turkish soldiers and produced a political and military crisis. Even though they are creating the crisis, Turkey is refusing to accept more refugees, and they have encouraged refugees currently living in Turkey to flee to Europe. This means that Greece and potentially other countries like Italy will face another migrant crisis. As recently as January there were reports that Greece was unable or unwilling to provide adequate health care to migrants. That was before the recent wave of immigrants unleashed by the continuing conflict between Turkey and Russian-backed Syria. In short, while many people focus on the plight of refugees, argue over how much health care should be spent on them, or accuse their political opponents of not doing enough for them, the main culprits like the brutal dictators in Russia and Syria continue to wage the wars that produce them.

If the virus spreads to camps it will likely cause as many deaths as the wars that made them flee in the first place. Taking preemptive action is always tough: budgets are stretched thin for a multitude of problems and it is tough to convince voters to spend money on a problem that isn’t massive and immediate. But money spent preparing refugee camps for the coronavirus could save an enormous number of lives.

L'articolo The Coming Refugee Crisis Sparked by the Coronavirus proviene da InsideOver.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan kept his word Saturday, Feb. 29 and opened the border Turkey shares with Greece and Bulgaria, unleashing a wave of 18,000 Syrian refugees. Erdogan had long threatened to send the refugees into the greater part of Europe if European states did not increase their aid for Ankara to support the growing influx of refugees. 

Tidal Wave of Refugees, Live-streamed

As economic conditions in Turkey have worsened, so has Erdogan’s banter with his European counterparts. The two sides reached an agreement in 2016 for refugees who made it to Greece to be returned to Turkey. In return, the EU was to give Ankara 3 billion euros. 

Erdogan, however, alleges that the EU has failed to deliver the full amount. Even so, this was not enough to force Erdogan’s hand and he restrained himself. Idlib, however, was the final straw. 

A Syrian government force recently killed 33 Turkish soldiers in Idlib province where several factions continue to vie for control. The attack and Erdogan’s subsequent response — to throw his hands up, open the borders, and strike harder in Syria — caused the Turkish lira fell to its lowest value in nearly two years and the stock market to slide down 10%. 

Erdogan: ‘We Will Not Close These Doors in the Coming Period’

To put it mildly, the Turkish president has had enough and, unable to win the battle for Idlib, he has decided to take out his fury on Europe.

“What did we do yesterday?” Erdogan said on Turkish television. “We opened the doors. We will not close these doors in the coming period and this will continue. Why? The European Union needs to keep its promises. We don’t have to take care of this many refugees, to feed them.”

According to Erdogan, 18,000 refugees had already made their way into Bulgaria and Greece; the International Organization for Migration estimated 10,000 were on their way. The entire event was live-steamed by Turkish state television in a show of defiance against European states that, according to Erdogan, have done nothing to help Ankara either with refugees or its military campaign in Syria.

Greece and Bulgaria Bear Brunt of Migrant Wave

Greece was the first to respond to the new mass migration. Having endured its own financial crisis 12 years ago and watched the Turkish economy collapse, it’s no stretch to imagine Athens is not enthused about the coming refugee influx.

“The government will do whatever it takes to protect its borders,” Greek government spokesman Stelios Petsas said.

Greek officials said they had successfully prevented 4,000 border crossings, but as Erdogan estimated the number of attempts will reach 25,000 to 30,000 this week, the struggle seems impossible. 

Even before the new exodus from Turkey, Greece was grappling with the refugee problem. In February, it attempted to curb the long-term benefits of seeking refuge there. Current asylum protections extend only to three years, said Notis Mitarachi, Greek migration minister.

Furthermore, returning refugees to their country of origin will begin in the coming months following new European Commisson proposals. Already, 36,000 Syrian refugees are held in Greek camps on five islands. 

Like Greece, Bulgaria is tightening its border controls with more troops and barbed wire. The fence stretching around Bulgaria has been effective in the past at keeping asylum seekers out, but under pressure, more Syrians might make an attempt to cross it.

Turkey’s Growing Conflict with Moscow

Erdogan’s frustration is likely to reach Moscow as well. Although he has opened the door for refugees to cross into Europe in a bid to force the EU to take action, Russian President Vladimir Putin is at the heart of the issue. 

Turkey has been losing the ground war in Idlib as Russian-backed Syrian government forces prevail. Talks between the two factions have yielded no results. Erdogan would rather see Putin throw in the towel in Syria, but there is little chance of that happening. As long as President Bashar al-Assad is winning why would Putin give up now? 

The war is only going to get worse following the attack on Turkish forces. Erdogan has reason now to send more troops and dowse Idlib in even more blood. At this point, Erdogan has few backers on the international stage, and a man with nothing to lose should be feared.

L'articolo Turkey Unleashes Tidal Wave of Refugees On Europe proviene da InsideOver.

According to a new study released by Doctors Without Borders, more than two-thirds of migrants fleeing Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador left their home countries after a family member was murdered, kidnapped or disappeared.

What Does the Study Say?

The study, entitled “No Way Out,” was published earlier this month by Doctors Without Borders. It reveals that more than 40% of Guatemalan, Honduran and El Salvadoran interviewed said they fled after a family member was violently killed in the last two years. This follows a 2015 study conducted by The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) which declares the situation “another protection crisis unfolding in Central America”.

This “surging tide of violence” in all three countries and parts of Mexico, sees its citizens facing gunfights, disappearances, and death threats. Interviewees in the UNHCR study described “seeing family members murdered or abducted and watching their children being forcibly recruited by those groups.”

Authorities Unable to ‘Curb the Violence’

Authorities are unable to “curb the violence and provide redress”, and are accused of widespread corruption, leading, in-part, to the humanitarian crisis.

Marta, a Doctor’s Without Borders (DWB) community worker in El Salvador said: “The police enter this community and, during enforcement operations, they beat up young people who aren’t gang members. They steal their belongings —such as money, cellphones, sound systems— and destroy their homes searching for drugs.

“Sometimes the inhabitants feel more trust towards the gangs and normalize certain situations. This makes it difficult to establish links between the institutions and the community. We are trying to raise awareness about health care and the role of the various stakeholders in this issue.”

2011-2016: 2,249% Increase in Refugees from Northern Central America

Between 2011 and 2016, the number of people from the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA) who have sought refuge in surrounding countries increased by 2,249 percent, according to statistics from the UNHCR. In Guatemala and Honduras alone, there are over 2 million children out of school.

One of the most dangerous regions on earth, the UNHCR reports that, in many cases, children have had to make the journey to neighboring countries alone, making them some of the world’s most vulnerable refugees.

“During their transit through Mexico, 39.2 % were violently attacked and 27.3 % were threatened or extorted. Of those interviewed, 57.3 % had been exposed to some kind of violence along the migration route through Mexico,” the Doctors Without Borders report describes.

“The violence suffered by people living in the NTCA is comparable to that in war zones where [Doctors Without Borders] has been working for decades,” it states.

Central American Women are Particularly Vulnerable to Rape and Murder

Women refugees from Central America are also very vulnerable. Despite paying “exorbitant fees to unscrupulous ‘coyotes’” to move them into neighboring countries, women face being beaten, raped and killed on their journey.

“In my country, killing is ordinary—it is as easy as killing an insect with your shoe,” said one man from Honduras who was threatened by gang members for refusing their demand for protection money. He was later shot three times.

A Honduran patient treated by Doctors Without Borders in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, Mexico, shared: “When we got off the bus, some men grabbed me and my brother and took my sister somewhere else.

“After a few hours, they released me and my brother, but not her. We still don’t know what has happened to her. We paid a US$5,000 ransom, that was all that we had, but they haven’t released her.

“I don’t know who can help us,” she added. “We don’t trust the police here. Our plan was to arrive and begin the asylum application process in the US, but now I don’t want to leave here until I know what happened to [my sister].”

Central America’s Deep History of ‘Social Inequality, Political Instability and Conflict’

DWB explains that the problem is also partly due to NCTA nations facing a deep history of “social inequality, political instability and conflict.”

In some cases, these countries have been “further destabilized by US interventions in the region over the past forty years.” Compounding this problem is the rapid rise, in the last decade, of transnational organized crime syndicates who deal with drug and human trafficking.

Additionally, new immigration policies by the United States and Mexico serve to trap Central Americans in very dangerous conditions, “with severe consequences for their physical and mental health.”

“It’s clear from years of medical data and testimonies that many of our patients are desperately fleeing violence back home,” said Sergio Martin, MSF head of mission in Mexico.

‘These People Deserve Protection and Care’

“These people deserve protection and care, and, at the very least, a fair chance to seek asylum. Instead they face more violence along the migration route, barred from countries where they wouldn’t be at risk,” Martin said. “Now they are trapped in dangerous places with no way to seek safety.”

Doctor Without Borders indicates the severe toll these unwelcoming immigration policies have on Central American refugees, particularly when detained or deported. Many such refugees are detained in terrible conditions in the US, sometimes in frigid cells “with the lights turned on 24 hours a day, with limited access to health care, and without adequate food, clothing, and blankets.”

“These policies to block people from asylum and send them back into danger have worsened the humanitarian crisis in the region,” said Marc Bosch, who oversees MSF programs in Latin America.

“The US and Mexico must end these policies and governments of the region must put people at the center of migration policies and ensure that victims of violence have access to humanitarian assistance, health services, and protection. All people, regardless of their legal status, deserve to be treated with dignity.”

L'articolo Central American Migrants Facing a Global Humanitarian Crisis proviene da InsideOver.

As various media outlets reported over the weekend, the European Union has drastically cut its aid pledges to Turkey for the year 2020. The EU’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell is said to have announced this in a letter to the European Parliament. As the rationale, Borrell cited the dispute over resources in the Mediterranean and Ankara’s military offensive in Syria.

The aid the EU has been paying to Turkey is the so-called IPA program, the pre-accession aid, support for Turkey’s future EU membership, which has been in doubt as of late. According to the reports, 75 percent of the initially planned allocation has been canceled, reducing payments to Turkey this year to 168 million euros. According to the European Commission, 150 million euros of it will be allocated towards the advancement of democracy and the rule of law, while 18 million euros are being allocated towards Turkey’s rural development program.

With the pre-accession aid, the EU seeks to support the reform process of the candidate countries and improve their competitiveness. The accession negotiations with Turkey have been on hold for years, with the EU accusing Ankara of an erosion of the rule of law in the country. The payments, which should initially amount to 3.5 billion euros in the period 2014 to 2020, have thus been controversial in the past years.

Borrell justified the EU’s current reduction with the unauthorized gas drilling of Turkey off the coast of EU member Cyprus as well as with Turkey’s military operation in northeast Syria, which started in October. Nonetheless, in his letter, according to initial reports, Borrell emphasized that EU aid remains relevant due to the positive impact it could continue to make.

Moreover, the payments that the EU makes to Turkey under the refugee agreement remained unaffected by the cuts. According to the European External Action Service, the reduction of funds from the so-called IPA program had already started in 2017 and was reduced by 1.2 billion euros. The Foreign Affairs Council made the last decision on further reductions in October 2019. The EU Commission had made a corresponding proposal.

However, on Sunday, the European External Action Service responded to the reports and the 75% cuts. According to this, Josep Borrell did not send a letter to the European Parliament. Instead, the media reports were based on a response from the Commission to questions from a member of parliament in October 2019. All interpretations that link the reply letter and current events were thus false and misleading. Essentially, the reply states that no decrease in funds would occur besides the reduction of IPA funds from 2017, which had already been imposed.

After more than a decade of complicated talks, Ankara and Brussels negotiated an agreement amidst an unprecedented influx of refugees into the European Union. Turkey agreed to prevent refugees from attempting to move from their coasts to Greece, while the EU would provide funding and accelerate Turkey’s accession negotiations. However, talks have stalled recently, as Turkey has been accused of not adhering to its part of the agreement and the number of refugees entering the EU via Turkey having doubled in the past year.

The EU has also raised concerns about increasing authoritarianism from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while Ankara’s role in Syria and the gas controversy do not make future talks any more comfortable. Moreover, Erdogan has recently repeatedly threatened member states such as Germany to open the borders for refugees into Europe despite the agreements.

The next few days will bring clarity as to whether the initial reports regarding the cuts were indeed incorrect. It would, however, would not come as a surprise if the aid had indeed been decreased, due to the continuous decline of EU and Turkish relations in recent years. Turkey has been officially recognized as a candidate for full membership of the European Union since 1999, and negotiations started in 2005. Nevertheless, Turkey’s EU membership is arguably more inconceivable than ever before at this stage.

L'articolo EU Drastically Decreases Aid Payments For Turkey proviene da InsideOver.

As government troops tighten the noose on Syria’s Idlib province, hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians have been driven from their homes. For the displaced masses, tough choices lie ahead. The northbound road towards Turkey may be their only hope of escape – but targeted daily by Syria’s air force, it’s a gauntlet few will want to run.

A New Refugee Crisis Could Break The Whole System

Beyond that, the picture brightens little. Across the frontier into Turkey – whose president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has closed the border fearing the weight of arrivals – and then, somehow, on to Europe and the hope of a better life. But there awaits only dangerous, disease-ridden refugee camps. These makeshift settlements, situated mostly on tiny spits of land off the Greek coast, are already at breaking point. Should 2020 mark another year of mass migration, there are fears that the system could collapse altogether.

Erdogan has made little secret of the crisis awaiting Europe as Syria’s eight-year civil war draws to a bloody close. Sharing a border with the conflict ridden country, Turkey has absorbed most of those fleeing the violence. Almost four million – the planet’s largest refugee contingent – now reside within Turkish borders. His nation can accommodate no more, Erdogan said pointedly last month.

Erdogan: Turkey Will Not Bear The ‘Migrant Burden’ Alone

If conditions in Idlib continue to deteriorate, Turkey will not shoulder the new “migrant burden” alone, the firebrand leader made clear. “All European countries”, willingly or not, will have to share the weight, Erdogan warned. 

And a great weight it may be. In the final days of December, some 235,000 locals were forced to abandon their homes as Bashar al-Assad’s Russian-backed forces approached. Idlib – currently held by a mix of rebels and jihadists—is the only remaining region to oppose Assad’s totalitarian rule. Estimates put the province’s population at around 3 million, although in the south, where state troops first advanced, settlements are now “almost empty,” according to UN observers.

2015 Refugee Crisis All Over Again?

The numbers portend a refugee catastrophe on the scale of 2015’s. That year, more than a million people entered Europe, leaving behind war and poverty in the Middle East and Africa. In 2016, the EU brokered a deal with Erdogan to address the issue, specifically allotting €6 billion in return for Turkish efforts to stem the flow of migrants moving westward through Turkey. 

But the accord is faltering. Leaked EU documents suggest some 70,000 individuals crossed the Aegean Sea from Turkey in 2019, entering Europe through the smattering of Greek islands along the coast. Reports even point to Turkish complicity in the movement, with government patrol boats allegedly letting asylum seeker vessels pass without challenge. 

The islands they land on are desperately overcrowded. At least 40,000 refugees currently occupy the ramshackle camps, some of which are ten-times over their official capacity. Conditions are deplorable. Medical treatment is often hard to come by, food and water scarce, and sanitation poor. 

Individuals can remain in the camps for years, trapped in an asylum seeking limbo. Those lucky enough to have their applications approved will likely be transported to mainland Greece. Some stay, but many set their hopes on settling in central and western Europe, soliciting people smugglers to move them through the Balkans into Austria and Germany.   

Europe’s Point-Of-View Vs. Turkey’s Point-Of-View

For European leaders battling a rising tide of populist nationalism, these arrivals pose deep political problems. Germany’s Angela Merkel – whose decision to welcome migrants in 2015 elicited a vicious voter backlash – will hope to head off the issue this month, reports suggest, when she meets Erdogan in Turkey. His nation must honour the EU’s deal, she’ll likely demand, but he will be in no hurry to agree.

Having endured a bruising year of electoral defeat, Ankara’s main man faces his own hefty share of political problems. Public sentiment appears to be shifting against the nation’s huge migrant contingent, forcing Erdogan to adopt an ever harder line. Turkey’s Syrian refugees will be repatriated to their country’s northeast, his government has intimated, occupying a band of land recently conquered by Turkish forces. 

Whether this “safe zone” really is fit for mass resettlement, few can say for sure. And what of the new migrant tide scrambling from blood-soaked Idlib? Where they will end up -Turkey, the Greek islands, mainland Europe – remains unclear. 

As a fresh refugee crisis takes shape, uncertainty abounds. One thing is clear, however: 2020 threatens to be a year of untold migrant misery.   

L'articolo Europe’s Migrant Crisis Threatens To Worsen In 2020 proviene da InsideOver.

Her face once inspired hope in the downtrodden – but as Aung San Suu Kyi’s drawn features appeared on screen, the refugee camp erupted in fury. “Liar! Liar! Shame!” rose up the cries from the squalid, Bangladeshi settlement. Half a world away, the protesters’ compatriots—assembled outside the UN’s highest court in the Hague—echoed the message with vigor. 

Suu Kyi: What Genocide?

Myanmar’s leader won’t have heard them, nor the hundreds of her supporters also on the street. With laser-like focus, the one-time champion of democracy systematically denied charges of genocide against the Rohingya people being brought against her nation in the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ). Myanmar’s bloody suppression of its Muslim minority was an internal security matter, she maintained—but few, it seems, are convinced.   

Background On Myanmar’s Campaign Against The Rohingya

It was, in 2017, the world’s fastest growing refugee crisis. Upwards of 700,000 people forced from their homes amid a military campaign of systemic destruction and murder. Most ended up in neighboring Bangladesh’s engorged and under-resourced refugee camps. It was a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing,” the UN later concluded—one that had occurred on Aung San Suu Kyi’s watch. Horrified by the apparent act of genocide, which is said to be unfolding still, Gambia has brought World Court charges against the southeast Asian state.  

Suu Kyi Defends Myanmar Army’s Actions: Lawful Counter-Terror Operation

Electing to represent her nation in person, Suu Kyi is the first national leader to answer a charge of genocide while the crime is allegedly ongoing. Her defence has been unwavering. Yes, hundreds of villages have been destroyed, and yes, disproportionate force may at times have been used, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate conceded, but Suu Kyi has maintained throughout the proceedings that the army’s operation was a lawful counter-terror operation.

Regarding the allegations of systematic sexual violence and rape as a tactic of war, detailed in three agonizing hours of witness testimony, Suu Kyi remained silent. Instead, she used her time to attack the ICJ’s supposed overreach, assailing its judges for meddling in what she claimed is an internal security affair.

Reaction To Suu Kyi’s Defense Against The Charges

Suu Kyi’s spirited defense of the military was well received back home; but for the opposing side, it’s a desperate race against time. Gambia’s legal team are not at this stage seeking official recognition of the genocide, but rather the imposition of “provisional measures” to protect Myanmar’s remaining Rohingya community.

Roughly half a million Rohingya individuals still reside in the country’s westerly Rakhine State. Where once their ancestral villages stood, the court heard that new security bases and government offices have been built. It is a cynical effort to destroy evidence of mass murder, said the Gambian lawyers, who worry the military’s genocidal intentions may actually have strengthened in recent months.   

Suu Kyi disputes this charge, claiming that Myanmar’s generals remain firmly under her control. Her government “actively investigates, prosecutes and punishes soldiers and officers that are accused of wrongdoing,” she told the court, pointing to the conviction of seven servicemen in 2017. The group had massacred ten Rohingya villagers, a crime exposed by two Reuters reporters. For their reporting of the killing, the journalists languished in jail for more than 16 months, significantly longer than the murderous soldiers, who were released only one year into their 10-year sentences. The affair is indicative of Myanmar’s inability to self-police, critics argue.      

“Aung San Suu Kyi says Myanmar is investigating its own crimes… Once atrocities are systematically committed as policy, you lose the credibility to investigate them yourself,” said Mark Kersten of the Wayamo Foundation, an international justice group. “We’d never accept the Nazis investigating the Holocaust, or Milosevic’s Serbs investigating Srebrenica.”

Proving Genocide And Holding Myanmar Responsible

In the cases of the Holocaust and other horrors, genocide’s high benchmark—acting with the “intent to destroy in whole or in part” a community—was proven. With the weight of evidence at their disposal, Gambia’s legal team will be hopeful of a similar verdict against Myanmar. But even if Myanmar is eventually found guilty, the ICJ has no way of enforcing its decisions. Neither the country’s civilian leader nor its military commanders would necessarily be arrested or put on trial.

Foreign sanctions would, however, be a likely consequence—as would severe reputational damage. However, for those suffering in ramshackle Bangladeshi camps or encircled Rakhine homesteads, that means very little. Myanmar’s much-feted leader must be made to call off the dogs, critics say. But whether she will—or even can—is far from clear.  

L'articolo Aung San Suu Kyi Denies Myanmar’s Alleged Rohingya Genocide proviene da InsideOver.

The last round of talks on Syria, the 14^th of its kind to be held in Nur Sultan (former Astana), in Kazakhstan was concluded last week with a framework formula statement endorsed by Russia, Turkey and Iran, the guarantors of the talks aiming at working out a political solution to the nine-year-old Syria conflict. The trilateral talks with the delegates of both Syrian government and opposition factions covered controversial issues such as drafting of a postwar constitution, political transition, security arrangements, resettlement of millions of refugees as well as combatting terrorism. The talks were part of what has become known as the Astana Process which was launched in Turkey in 2017 in support of the UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva which have since yielded limited fruit and humble success on the ground.

Deputy director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, Sanat Kushukumbaev explained that the meeting aimed to “focus on technical issues, in the northern part of Syria, the area of Idlib, and the banks of the Euphrates. It’s about expanding previous agreements regarding the Safe Zone in northeastern Syria. This is a sensitive area where there are Turks, Kurds, and remaining terrorists from the Islamic State (ISIS).” However, many observers and analysts of the communique issued at the end of the last round of talks in Nur Sultan, and the statement made by the official Syrian delegation at the talks, headed by Syria’s UN ambassador Bashar Jaafari, pointed out that perhaps one of the most important achievements at this round was a unanimous agreement on the need to get rid of terrorists in Idlib and elsewhere in Syria, for any political process to be viable and successful.

A Green Light to Start Mother of Battles in Idlib?

Focus has centred for much of the year on the possibility of an imminent launch of Syria’s last major battle in Idlib, delayed for years by political and demographic complications as well as international pressure, and the fact that the three main players, at long last, might have given the green light for a major military operation by the Syrian army and its allies to liberate Idlib from the firm grip of al Nusra fanatics and other extremists terror groups. However, a side-track distraction might have shifted emphasis, temporarily at least, to Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city and economic capital liberated some two years ago in a landmark turn of tide in the war in favour of the Syrian government and its allies.

The Russian defence ministry has confirmed earlier reports of terrorists amassing their forces in the countryside of Aleppo. The ministry spotted the transfer of MLRS (Multiple Launcher Rocket Systems), tanks and armoured vehicles to the western outskirts of the city. The move coincided with growing warnings of a potential ‘chemical plot’ by terrorists in Idlib -similar to previous fabrications- that have induced US and western military strikes against Syrian airfields and other military installations as well as research centres. Recently released documents and confessions have revealed that the chemical verification reports have been tampered with and that White Helmets chemical ploys were utterly fabricated.

Last-minute Attempts to Side-track the Idlib Big Bang

The announcement came straight after the Astana declaration calling for the need to fight terror groups in Idlib, and the need for return of the city under Syrian government control and that the sovereignty of the Syrian state should be respected and maintained. The communique was signed by Turkey as well as by groups under its control. This was interpreted by many observers as a tripartite green light for the Syrian army, who has mobilized massive forces and overwhelming firepower close to Idlib, to launch its Mother of All Battles in the province which harbours some 10000 terrorists including hardcore anti-government fighters who took refuge in Idlib following military defeats or as part of previous reconciliation deals with the government.

Ruslan Mamedov, an expert at the Russian Council for International Affairs, told the official Syrian news agency SANA that “the outcome of all Astana resolutions call for fighting terrorism and liberation of all Syrian territories from terrorists’ control.” “Any settlement in Syria preserve the integrity of Syrian land as well as the sovereignty of the state over every inch of its territories,” Mamedov maintained. Hence, all eyes – despite marginal issues around Aleppo’s western outskirts and east of the Euphrates river- are focused on Idlib and the long-awaited showdown there. The only remaining question, for the time being, is when does the Syrian army and its allies choose the zero hour for the looming big bang.

L'articolo Astana Statement: A Triple Green Light for Idlib Battle proviene da InsideOver.

Life may never completely return to normal for Syrian refugees displaced by a decade-long civil war, but their plight could at least be treated with dignity and basic respect for humanity. Instead, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has seen fit to use their situation as one would use a card in a game of poker. After receiving approval from United States President Donald Trump, Turkish forces immediately stormed across the Syrian border in an attempt to carve out what Erdogan called a “safe zone.”

Blackmail

As many members in the international community, practically all world powers with the exception of Russia, condemned the wholesale slaughter of Kurds living in a land Erdogan intends for the resettlement of Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey. When European leaders spoke out against the stunning Turkish offensive, Erdogan audaciously tried to blackmail them into silence. 

“We will open the gates and send 3.6 million refugees your way,” Erdogan promised if European leaders continue to label the Turkish attack as an “occupation.” 

Turkey hosts the most refugees of any nation, including 3.6 million Syrians. While it was originally incredibly welcoming of them, Turks have shifted their opinions recently, especially this year, amid an economic downturn. It is difficult to point to one particular factor that has led to economic decline, but the Turks do their best to try by scapegoating Syrians. In the June elections, Syrian refugees were said to be a top issue for voters who turned their fury upon Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, losing him the Istanbul mayorship. 

Now, in his way, Erdogan is telling the world, “Look, I have a solution to our problem, now keep your mouth shut before it becomes your problem.” The President of the European Council would have none of it, however.

German Response

“We will never accept that refugees are weaponised and used to blackmail us,” said Donald Tusk. It is Europe that helped create this problem, though, after it cut a deal with Erdogan in 2016. It promised six billion euros to serve as a buffer between European states and Syria. In many ways that worked – the number of arrivals fell from 1,015,078 to less than 400,000. In return, Ankara was charged with accepting migrants the EU refused, either because they failed to apply for asylum or due to their claim being rejected.

Germany accepted the largest number of refugees, although an overwhelming percentage passed through Greece first by boat. Berlin received 800,000 asylum applications in 2016 alone, almost double its total from the previous year. In many ways, this has helped the German economy by boosting the number of skilled labourers. 

“We have reasons – not just soft, feel-good ones – to assist and help and push refugees into vocational training,” said Günter Hirth, economist for the Hanover Chamber of Commerce. “The German economy needs qualified workers.” 

Deal with the Devil

The situation is not a perfect solution for Syrian refugees, however, nor all states hold the same attitude towards them. The asylum process is long and arduous and families can even be separated as some members are approved to enter Germany while others must stay behind. Refugees live in poverty with an often uncertain future. Naturally, there have also been integration issues as well.

Erdogan has on several occasions claimed that the six billion euros offered by the EU is no longer sufficient to meet the demands migrants impose on the Turkish economy. Therefore, his best idea is to simply get rid of them, whether it be back to Syria or Europe, it matters little to Erdogan. The EU is not without blame however as it simply agreed to pay Ankara to deal with the problem while turning a blind eye to its actions. Furthermore, by cutting a deal with Erdogan in 2016, it showed that the EU is willing to pay to keep the problem off its doorstep and there is money to be made by politicizing the Syrian crisis. 

Some diplomats are warning the flow of migrants through Turkey has already begun to pick up. The UN recorded 45,600 arrivals so far this year. The solution may be to unite Europe under a single asylum policy, one that would include every state carrying its fair share of the burden. 

“If we leave all the countries on the EU’s external border (to fend for themselves), there will never be a common European asylum policy,” German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said. “And if there is no common European asylum policy, there is a danger that uncontrolled immigration will once again take place, throughout Europe. We have seen this before and I do not want it to happen again.”

Regardless of how the EU decides its collective policy, it must also grapple with how to negotiate with Erdogan. As Turkey is not a member of the Protocol to the Refugee Convention, some critics argue the 2015 deal should be null and void as Ankara does not guarantee protection to those under its wing. This detail is of little concern to a dictator who is willing to simply push the problem back into Syria, at the expense of the Kurds, or leverage them against the EU, also by pushing the problem out of Turkey. 

There exists no easy solution when dealing with a strongman like Erdogan, but the EU must deal with him nevertheless. It can either act more forceful than the Turkish president in an attempt to break him or it can be more merciful and accept refugees with open arms.

L'articolo Erdogan Threatens EU with Refugee Flood proviene da InsideOver.

Somalians are fleeing to Ethiopia to avoid drought, hunger and extremist group, al-Shabaab.

More than 5,000 Somalis – four times more than in 2018 – have sought refuge in the East African nation this year alone.

Refugee, Barwako Abdi, said: “I left because of my children. I want my children to succeed and have a bright future. Living on the farm when there is drought is always difficult. I have raised my children in hardship. I can’t let them be taken away by the fighters.”

Somali has “one of the world’s most protracted displacement situations” with over 2 million Somalis displaced in the surrounding region in the past two decades. Climate change has deeply affected Somali, resulting in extensive drought in the region. Families, facing the country’s worst drought since the 2011 famine, are also forced to pay illegal taxes to al-Shabaab soldiers, exacerbating an already precarious situation.

“There was a time when we would cultivate the farms. The river would rise, and it would flow, and we survived. We planted maize, tomatoes, sesame and other things along the river. Now the river is dry and there is no more rain. What’s worse is that al-Shabaab forced us to give them the little we had,” another Somali refugee, Shalle Hassan Abdirahman, said

Shalle arrived at The UN Refugee Agency’s (UNHCR) Dollo Ado Reception Centre in Eastern Ethiopia after a three-day journey from Somalia’s Lower Juba region.

The 53-year old farmer grew and sold tobacco until al-Shabaab banned it. Despite facing a loss of income, he was forced to pay al-Shabaab an exorbitant tax of $1,500 which he could not afford. Many families who can not afford this tax are forced to hand over their children for military training.

“My children are growing and are also at risk of being taken away as fighters. That’s why I came here, so they can go to school, so their future can be better,” Barwako continued.

“In today’s changing climate, mass displacement triggered by extreme weather events is becoming the norm,” the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) said in a report published this month. In the first half of 2019, 10.8 million people were displaced globally: 7 million by disasters and 3.8 million by conflict and violence.

“New arrivals never stopped coming to Ethiopia, so every year we have some more coming and reporting the same challenges when it comes to drought, insecurity, shortage of food and water,” said Muhammad Harfoush, Protection Officer, at UNHCR’s Melkadida sub-office.

The UNHCR announced that there is a shortage of available shelters to accommodate Somali refugees arriving in Ethiopia.

“Daily arrivals are accommodated at the reception centre, then transferred to the camp depending on the availability of shelters, so that is a key challenge we have. We are trying to address it,” Harfoush promised.

At the Dollo Ado reception centre, refugees like Shalle are awaiting registration and relocation to one of Melkadida’s five refugee camps. They are overcrowded, camped out on beds pushed against the outer walls of the centre.

“I have been sleeping well since I arrived,” Shalle said of the reception centre.

Other refugees, like Barwako, are temporarily sheltered in Bur Amino Refugee Camp in South-East Ethiopia, in the grounds of a school run by one of UNHCR’s partners, World Vision.

Experts have warned that global displacement is becoming the “norm” as climate change “hazards” worsen in the future.

“With the impact of climate change, in the future these types of hazards are expected to become more intense,” the director of the International Displacement Monitoring Center, Alexandra Bilak, said.

L'articolo Thousands of Somalians Seek Refuge in Ethiopia to Avoid Climate Change proviene da InsideOver.

Weeks after the guns went largely silent following some of the most intensive battles waged in the eight years of conflict in Syria and the major advances made by the Syrian army against militants and Jihadis in rural Hama and Idlib provinces, the humanitarian corridor opened by the Syrian government for civilians wanting to leave Idlib for safety remains largely unused.

The corridor of Abud Duhoor near the town of Souran, Hama close to the Idlib frontier was announced a few weeks ago to enable hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped in rebel-controlled Idlib to leave, should the major battle for Idlib becomes inevitable. Some civilians managed to trickle through the corridor, but the majority have been prevented, by force and sometimes by firepower, from leaving the province. Estimates of civilians there, range between 1.5 and 3 million. Any mass exodus in any direction might well prove disastrous due to the large numbers anticipated to flee the battlefield.

Human Shield for HTS and Affiliates

Previous experiences during the conflict in Syria have proven humanitarian corridors vital in avoiding large civilian casualties, prime examples were implemented in Damascus’s eastern Ghouta, Dar’a, Homs and southern provinces. Hundreds of thousands of civilians were saved through such humanitarian corridors, were resettled by the government which has provided them with shelter, education and necessary supplies ever since.

As in previous cases, hardline militant groups have prevented the majority of civilians from leaving into government-controlled areas. They have systematically been used as a human shield by rebels to avert Syrian and Russian airstrikes and shelling. The few hundreds who have managed to leave through the Abud Duhoor corridor have reported difficulties in the process including the risk of death as they were fired at by rebel groups when they were spotted leaving for safety. Crossing the humanitarian corridor could easily become a matter of life or death for many.

Better or Bitter Choices for Refugees?

As Turkey has formally stated its unwillingness to harbour any more Syrian refugees – it is working on getting rid of the 3.6 million Ankara claims that are already on its territories – following numerous incidents of anger and hostilities by Turks against Syrian workers and refugees alike. And as the al-Qaeda affiliated HTS (al Nusra terrorist group’s new name) has also made it clear that no one is allowed to leave Idlib or lay down their arms or they face the death penalty, civilians find themselves with very little choice of their own.

Traumatised as they may well be, risking the journey through the humanitarian corridor might remain their better choice. Deciding between the better and the bitter choice, the destiny of Idlib civilians hangs in the balance. The Syrian government and Russia have given assurance of safety and support for all families or individuals wishing to leave the rebel-controlled province, although under a continuous campaign of psychological pressure and threats by radical militants, many civilians in Idlib remain sceptical and fear for their lives either way.

Complications Further Exasperated

Recent demonstrations against Turkey and anti-Erdogan slogans chanted by thousands who marched through Idlib rural areas and stormed the border gates with Turkey in Atama and Bab al Hawa a few weeks ago, reveal an unprecedented degree of frustration and anger by the local community following the displacement of some 400000 civilians during the last spate of fighting in Hama and Idlib countryside.

The situation in Idlib, complicated as it is, has been further exasperated because almost half of its current population consists of refugees who have already been displaced or chose to take refuge in the city and its rural areas. Idlib is thought to have become the largest concentration of terrorist and Islamic Jihadis in the world, with estimates of over 75000 well-trained, well-equipped and even suicidal radicals from over 80 countries entrenched in the city. HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) has the upper hand in Idlib, with overwhelming powers, as it has enlisted or exterminated all other rebel groups in the area.

Given the refusal by Idlib’s supreme rulers to accept a demilitarised zone, hand over heavy arms or negotiate any settlement with Damascus or Russia, the situation in Idlib remains as dangerous and volatile as ever.

Any Change After Trilateral Summit?

Idlib and its refugees were two prime topics discussed by the leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey last week in Ankara. Whilst all three presidents agreed on the need to fight terrorism and preserve the integrity of Syrian territories and prevent a mass exodus of civilians from Idlib, things on the ground tell a completely different story.

Turkey, in particular, is systematically undermining the integrity of Syrian land, occupying certain parts and planning to run others under the pretext of resettling millions in the newly formed northeastern ‘safe zone’. The Syrian army and the majority of Syrians who have had enough with fake truces and ceasefires, view all such politically-motivated declarations as no more than time-buying ploys. The Turkish army continues to operate in northern Iraq as well. Two of its soldiers were killed today when an explosive charge hit the convoy they were in.

Social media outlets are full of calls by Syrians for their national army to pursue its military campaign to the very end. However, the intertwined complications of the ‘Mother of all Syrian Battles’ in Idlib, render such an appeal all the more difficult to answer for the time being given its national, regional and even international ramifications.

L'articolo Idlib, Corridor Between Life And Death proviene da InsideOver.