As a sign of how turbulent the Nagorno-Karabakh region has become, a ceasefire that took effect Oct. 18 lasted mere minutes. Fighting quickly resumed with each side blaming the other for violating the truce. While no one expected the arrangement to magically cure decades of squabbling over the territory, there was at least some hope that a pause could take hold and allow for diplomacy.

The truth of the matter is that a ceasefire is simply not enough to considering the forces at work in the Armenian–Azerbaijan conflict. With no one to hold the states accountable for breaking the truce, there was little incentive for them to honor it. It was’t even the first time this month a ceasefire arrangement had been tried; on Oct. 10, a similar deal was struck and like the latest, it too was quickly discarded.

Another Proxy War

With Turkey and Russia stoking opposing sides in the war, the feud will continue until it no longer serves their interests. Although Moscow did broker the Oct. 10 arrangement, it in all likelihood understood it was destined to fail. After all, the Kremlin is fighting proxy battles against Turkey in Libya and Syria. They are one of the ways Russia is expanding its sphere of influence, by challenging Ankara.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not known to back down from a challenge. He annexed Crimea and continues feeling disruptions in Ukraine. Worse, he has carried out both with minimal negative consequences from the international community. Therefore, why shouldn’t Russia continue pushing Armenia to defend itself? 

Put simply, conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is viewed by Moscow as another opportunity — perhaps even an obligation — to stand up to Turkey. That mentality is precisely the reason the fighting won’t simmer down anytime soon.

Unlike Syria and Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh was once part of the Soviet Union. The battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan is amplified when viewed through this lens by which Putin approaches the situation.  To add more justification for Russian support, it has a mutual defense agreement with Armenia, raising the possibility of military support from Moscow. Currently, Russia has ruled out the option, however.

Where Is The Minsk Group?

Russia, alongside France and the US, co-chairs the Minsk group that is tasked with keeping the peace in the region. As Andrew E. Kramer noted for The New York Times, the world became too preoccupied to notice trouble brewing and the Minsk Group similarly was caught off guard. 

The problem with the organisation is that its members are currently ill-suited for the task of keeping and restoring order. Washington is in no place to broker peace with a president who has spent his administration sowing discord. France has the most level-headed of the three powers, but it is presently consumed with a fight it is losing in the Sahel and other African interests, notably Libya. 

Russia is similarly flat-footed as the Kremlin’s resources are spread rather thin. Putin has his state involved in conflicts across the globe from Greece and Libya to Belarus and even domestic protests. 

The Minsk Group was established to be a body dedicated to long-term peace, but with only three members that are all busy trying to be the next superpower, it is incredibly weak and ineffective.

Turkey’s Armenia Problem

Finally, there is the Turkish aspect to the equation. Ankara cast heavy doubts on peace succeeding without the complete withdrawal of Armenians from the region, as Thomas Falk wrote for InsideOver. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan likely views the recent outbreak of renewed conflict as a chance for Ankara to finally have its way in the region.

Turkey has always considered the issue of Armenia a struggle to overcome. Over 100 years after the Armenia Genocide, the Turkish government continues to attempt to disassociate itself with the word, insisting on referring to it as “Events of 1915.”

While Turkey, like the Minsk Group, has called for peace in the region, it would only accept it on its terms, which means Armenians would need to abandon territory they have held for decades.

What Will Peace Take?

Peace in Nagorno-Karabakh will only come when world powers — the Minsk Group and Turkey — resolve that the region will not become a battleground for a proxy war between Ankara and Moscow. Furthermore, after decades in limbo, it is time for the world to recognize the region as independent from Azerbaijan. The state has not had control of it for long enough that it can’t possibly continue to lay claim to it.

Ceasefires in Nagorno-Karabakh are growing shorter and shorter. Soon, there may be an all-out war because the organisation responsible for preventing it is too self-interested and preoccupied to do actively pursue peace.

L'articolo Minsk Group Absent as Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict Continues proviene da InsideOver.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated his intention to provide military support to Libya’s recognized government in his latest attempt for increased geopolitical relevance and projection of Turkish power. In order to facilitate the deployment of Turkish troops, Erdogan will request the Turkish parliament to vote on the plan early next month. The corresponding law will likely be submitted by the beginning of January Erdogan confirmed in a speech to representatives of his party AKP.

Turkey’s Libya Deployment Timeline

Erdogan stated that “based on the security and military cooperation memorandum, once Parliament opens the first thing we will do is to submit a resolution on the deployment of soldiers.” Specifically, the resolution authorizing deployment to Libya is expected to be passed on January 8 or 9.

Moving forward, Turkey would go to places where it was invited but never anywhere where it was not wanted, Erdogan continued. The latter is his rationale for his Lybia plans, as Libya’s GNA government has invited Ankara to intervene and requested it. It’s an invitation that Erdogan is more than willing to accept. In fact, Turkey will provide the Tripoli government with “any kind of support against a coup-planning general backed by several European and Arab countries,” Erdogan said, adding that “we stand alongside Libya’s legitimate government.” The legitimization of the current government, however, remains a conundrum among the international community.

Libya’s Bloody Civil War

Libya has been suffering from a civil war since 2014. Erdogan already agreed on Sunday to provide more military support to the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, and to examine the possibilities of deploying boots on the ground, as well as air force and navy assets. At this stage, it is hard to predict what type of troops Erdogan will ultimately send. However, as NATO’s biggest army other than the US, Erdogan certainly has several options to explore.

Turkey and the al-Sarraj government in Libya had already concluded on a comprehensive security and military cooperation agreement, which allows Turkey to send military trainers and advisers. The Turkish government also has authorization for joint military exercises and may send weapons and military vehicles to Libya on request. Moreover, Turkey has pledged to help build a protection force to undertake police and military duties. In order to deploy combat troops, Erdoğan’s government requires separate parliamentary approval. The latter can be seen as a pure formality, however, as Erdogan’s AKP and his coalition partner, the MHP command a majority in the Turkish parliament.

Turkish Deployment Could Lead To An All-Out Proxy War In Libya

Nonetheless, Turkey’s increased involvement will likely further complicate the current situation in Libya with the fear of an actual proxy war becoming conceivable. The UN-recognized al-Sarraj GNA government and the powerful opposition Libyan National Army (LNA) forces commanded by dual American-Libyan citizen, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, have been competing for power since the overthrow of Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. Haftar’s Libyan National Army has been trying to capture the capital, Tripoli, since April. According to the UN, more than 280 civilians have been killed and more than 140,000 people displaced since Haftar’s offensive began eight months ago.

Amongst as-Sarraj’s primary supporters are Turkey, Qatar, and Italy. On the other side, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE have been supporting Haftar. Meanwhile, Russia, which also supports Haftar in Libya, has expressed concern about Turkey’s possible involvement. A delegation from the Turkish government traveled to Moscow on Monday to speak to Russian diplomats about Libya and Syria. The latter demonstrates Turkey’s status as an opportunistic power, as Ankara has been increasingly fraternizing with Russia in recent times, a development that is seen highly negatively in the West. The move now appears to be solely in Turkey’s interest.

L'articolo A New Proxy War? Turkey Plans to Deploy Troops to Libya proviene da InsideOver.