US President Donald Trump made his maiden visit to Afghanistan on Thursday under a cloak of secrecy to celebrate thanksgiving with US troops stationed at the Bagram Airfield where he announced that he had reopened talks with Taliban.

Less than three months ago in September, an end to 18-year-old US war in Afghanistan had seemed imminent after Trump invited the Taliban to Camp David to shake hands on an agreement for peace. But the meeting was called off in an abrupt announcement by Trump, who poured water on the entire process after a Taliban-led terror attack killed 11 people including a US soldier.

But despite public overtures of anger at the Taliban, backdoor diplomacy continued. US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad also allegedly met with the Taliban leadership in Islamabad last month.

Pakistan’s foreign office, although shied away from officially announcing that the two sides had met, said Khalilzad’s “visit would provide the opportunity to review the progress made under US-Taliban peace talks so far, and discuss the possibilities of resuming the paused political settlement process in Afghanistan.”

The Taliban were also careful in their criticism of Trump after he called off talks on Sept 7 which was seen by observers as the evidence that the group was still interested in a peace deal with the US.

On the other hand, the American diplomats continued their work to rebuild trust by allowing prisoner swaps. On Nov 19, three Taliban prisoners were freed after two western teachers were safely handed over by the insurgent group into the custody of American forces.

Although Trump’s announcement on Thursday did not provide any details on how the talks would resume, he did claim that the Taliban had agreed to a ceasefire.

While speaking to the troops, where he was flanked by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Trump said the Taliban “wants to make a deal very badly,” but added in a nonchalant way that, “if they do, they do, and if they don’t, they don’t. That’s fine.”

The Taliban, however, did not issue any statement to verify Trump’s claims. The Afghan government has long sought a ceasefire from Taliban but the insurgent group refused to agree to it in the past.

On the other hand, the Afghan Peace Process cannot become successful until Afghanistan announces final results of the presidential elections held in September.

For any long-term solution to the war in Afghanistan, the US, Taliban, Afghan government and regional neighbors must all be on the same page.

L'articolo Trump Announces Reopening of Talks with Taliban proviene da InsideOver.

Over the weekend, Iraq’s parliament began the process of electing a new leader following the resignation of the country’s former Prime Minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi. There is severe unrest spreading throughout the nation as security forces killed 45 civilians who were protesting around Nasiriyah on Thursday.

Many demonstrators are angry that Iran continues to influence Iraqi politics. Last Wednesday, government forces showed brute force following the firebombing of the Iranian consulate in Najaf.

When the US liberated Iraq from Saddam Hussein in 2003, they intended to introduce democracy to the nation. With the country divided into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish sects, Iraq’s governance had been determined along sectarian lines. Its institutions were used as fiefdoms by ministers whose political allegiances has often transcended loyalty to the state.

This has resulted in corruption and nepotism throughout the nation’s public sector. Many Iraqis have been robbed of opportunities since the nation’s oil wealth was plundered. Youths are angry that state revenues have been looted, leaving them disenfranchised. 200,000 people have been demonstrating in Baghdad and other cities ever since.

Disenchantment towards Iran has been widespread among many different sectors of Iraq’s population. Tribal leaders have concentrated on murdering security forces in the wake of the killings, which they say were orchestrated by Iranian officials who have played a crucial role in the crackdown. Qassem Suleimani is an example of an Iranian general who initiated a brutal response that began a month ago.

Furthermore, Tehran has been playing an influential role in Iraq’s affairs since the US withdrawal of 2011. The Guardian reports that the Islamic Republic is concerned about Hadi al-Ameri, the leader of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMF), which were formed to defeat the Islamic State, becoming a potential successor to Mahdi.

As the Brookings Institute suggests, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who founded the PMF, cannot dissolve the organisation because doing so would spark a public backlash that could undermine Iraq’s Shia establishment. Although they are loyal to the Iraqi state, there are groups within the PMF who are beholden to Tehran.

US President Donald Trump should be very concerned about Iran’s influence over Iraq. The 2015 Iran Deal Barack Obama concluded failed to tackle Tehran’s interference in neighbouring countries’ elections. Since Trump has scrapped the agreement, all the nations involved in implementing the 2015 deal have failed to negotiate a new one. But the situation in Iraq is an opportunity for Western leaders to curb Iran’s electoral influence.

Iraq’s army is not strong enough to fight Iran-sponsored terrorist groups like Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which has attacked US and Iraqi personnel and civilians since they were founded in 2003. Sistani is Iraq’s best hope of resisting Iran’s influence. He successfully combated US interference in Iraq’s new constitution and ensured his country was governed by an elected assembly instead of Washington-backed elites.

If Trump is serious about thwarting Iran’s dominance, he has a responsibility to protect Iraq from its neighbour. US troops must be temporarily deployed to Baghdad to contain Iran’s proxies, which now control places like Kirkuk.

But there are other actions the US can take to contain Tehran that do not require military intervention. They could help the Iraqi government allocate $1 billion to the PMF from its national budget, but restrict their access to the billions of dollars the international community contributes towards the reconstruction of Iraq. They could also help the PMF shape Iraq’s political system according to their ideologies.

Maybe the US could also work alongside Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shia Iraqi cleric who visited Iran last month and has been a longstanding opponent of Iranian interference. Whilst he is opposed to US dominance in Iraq as well, US veteran Michael D. Sullivan wrote in Foreign Policy that he is the only politician who understands America can help strengthen his country’s security forces. Following Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation, he could play an influential role in Iraqi politics.

Trump should take Iranian influence in Iraq seriously, and he has plenty of options as to how he can tackle this crisis.

L'articolo America and Iran’s Influence on Iraq’s Elections Amid Civil Unrest proviene da InsideOver.

The protesters’ efforts in Algiers and other Algerian cities and towns seem to grow in the face of the approaching presidential elections, which the military vehemently backs, and which people in the streets now march against in their months-long weekly protests.

Last Friday, November 29, marked the 41^st time Algerians took to the streets in peaceful defiance of the country’s ruling elite. The protests, colloquially called “Hirak”, began during the second half of February 2019, after the former president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, announced he was to run for a fifth presidential term.

Once backed by the army, Bouteflika, who had been the country’s president since 1999, was soon compelled to resign early in April, some six weeks after the Hirak started. The protests were expected to peter out after the former president’s departure.

Yet people still took to the street in dissatisfaction with the new caretaker government and the interim president, Abdelkader Bensalah. The elections that were to be held on April were postponed to July following Bouteflika’s departure.

Amid further demonstrations, though, the Algerian Constitutional Council postponed the elections again to December. But people are still taking to the streets every Friday afternoon and in other days, such as Tuesday for students, as the December 12 elections approach.

Although seeking a “true democracy,” the protesters have objected to the upcoming elections, as they see in them an opportunity for the ruling elite to remain in power. They demand a thorough purge of the ruling hierarchy. The “they should all leave” catchphrase is still one of the demonstrations’ most recurrent.

Five candidates were promptly presented on the ballot, with the campaign having officially started by mid-November. But each of these candidates had been either prime minister or minister or senior official under Bouteflika.

“There will be no vote with the gang,” the people now chanted, deeming the candidates’ run but another ploy of the regime to save the status quo.

The protesters say the elections cannot be fair and free as long as the military and senior officials from the old ruling hierarchy, once represented by Bouteflika, remain in power.

The Hirak is leaderless and only aims at a radical change within Algeria’s politics, demanding that corruption ends and that the military quits politics.

The army, now the main actor in the country’s affairs, said the elections were the only way to restore normality, by making an end to the protest movement, and to escape the constitutional limbo that followed Bouteflika’s departure.

With only a few days ahead of the elections, the protesters appear to be stepping up demonstrations, even as the authorities ramp up the number of arrests. Late in November, protesters in Algiers and other cities took to the streets at night, defying the repression that has recently grown in regular daytime protests.

An alarming number of individuals were recently arrested in links to the Hirak, many of whom were detained after they protested against the upcoming elections or the army’s ever more patent interference in Algerian politics.

While some protesters hang garbage bags in places reserved for electioneering, others vandalized those spaces with anti-government graffiti or hanging posters of opposition figures who currently stand behind bars. Many were sentenced to 18-month prison terms on accusations of “disrupting the elections.”

Causing a sweeping controversy in Algeria, the European Parliament recently said it worried about issues of human rights and freedom in Algeria. (An overwhelming majority of Algerians on both sides – anti- and pro-government – agreed that there should not be any foreign interference in such tense times.)

Other protesters were arrested after they held Berber – an Algerian ethnic group – flags during demonstrations, and were detained on accusations of “undermining the integrity of national territory.”

Many others, coming from other cities to the capital Algiers, were often deprived of their freedom of movement, as they were denied access to Algiers during days of protests so that they would not add to the capital’s massive rallies.

The Human Rights Watch and other NGOs also said that the growing number of recent arrests aimed at weakening the people’s aspiration for democracy. The army and the establishment hope for enough participation to legitimize the new president, who would then act to bring an end to the Hirak.

L'articolo In Algeria, Tensions Flare Up as Unwanted Elections Approach proviene da InsideOver.

After over three weeks of violent street protests, Bolivia’s President Evo Morales bowed to pressure and agreed to hold new presidential elections. Claiming to Fear for his life, however, he has now fled into exile.

A damning report by the Organisation of American States (OAS) in which they claimed to have found “serious irregularities” in the October 20 election, made the president’s position untenable. Morales had called for fresh presidential elections but amid a clamour for him to step down he finally resigned and fled the country.

The October 20 election included the 130 seat Chamber of Deputies, the 36 seat Senate, the presidency and vice presidency. Bizarrely, however, the count was halted at 7:40 on October 20 and did not resume until the next day leaving many Bolivians bewildered and suspicious.

International observers were openly concerned by the disruption and voiced their disquiet. The election count was eventually restarted and incumbent president, leftist Evo Morales, the nation’s first indigenous president, was eventually declared to have won the contest by a margin over 10 per cent which was needed to avoid a second round of voting. Many, however, suspected election fraud and Carlos Mesa, leader of Civic Community, a centrist coalition, and the opposition candidate, called for protests. Bolivians across the country took to the streets.

Violence flared when anti-government protestors faced off against pro-Morales supporters. Three people lost their lives in the clashes, including 20-year-old student Limbert Guzman who died in a clinic in Cochabamba on Wednesday, November 6.

Speaking from the Cochabamba, a city of around 632,000, situated about 238 miles southeast of La Paz, one of the anti-government protestors Alvaro (who didn’t want to give his full name) told InsideOver: “He (Limbert Guzman) is from a very humble family. People, in general, have reacted with indignation and he is seen now as a martyr of Bolivian democracy. All-day long we have had fights on the streets, between Morales supporters, who came from the countryside and people from the city.”

In the wake of the deaths furious demonstrators in the small town of Vinto, with a population of around 52,000, doused the local Mayor Patricia Arce, a member of the ruling Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) party, in red paint, cut her hair and marched her barefoot through the town.

The incident reflected the chaos and divisions that have been tearing the South American nation apart since the October elections.

“Luis Fernando Camacho…is trying to see Morales in order to give him a petition of resignation” Alavaro stated on Friday November 8. “Kind of a crazy move but the entire country is crazy.”

Camacho, a local civic leader, had stood at the feet of Christ the Redeemer in Santa Cruz on the previous Saturday, November 2, and described President Morales as a ‘tyrant’. He also said that Morales had “48 hours to resign”.

He had then flown to La Paz to hand the president a letter of resignation to sign. But after arriving at El Alto airport eight miles from La Paz he was blocked from leaving the airport and returned to the eastern city of Santa Cruz. He later returned by plane and this time was able to reach La Paz.

The key turning point in this struggle for power, however, was the mutiny of police on November 8. The rebellion among police – more specifically the elite tactical operations unit (UTOP) – started in Cochabamba, and rapidly spread to Sucre and Santa Cruz. By November 9 it was being reported that many of the elite tactical operations unit had withdrawn from the Plaza Murillo leaving the presidential palace guarded by only a handful of officers.

Defence Minister Javier Zavaleta had said that the government had no intention of sending the army into action, though this decision may have been tempered by warnings from former president Jorge Quiroga.

Quiroga happily reminding the military that several former army chiefs are still being held in prison for their part in the deaths of protestors in 2003.

I could not contact Alvaro on Saturday evening, I tried his mobile phone and left a message and tried to reach him by email but all to no avail.

In the meantime Evo Morales had become increasingly isolated behind the walls of his presidential palace and with support from the police beginning to falter he, of all people, was starting to realise that he was approaching the endgame.

Just as I was about to give up on Alvaro I received an email early Sunday morning. He said: “The last resort of Morales is his own people. But I’m afraid that it won’t be enough. What is unclear now is the constitutional path to solve this crisis, if Morales resigns or simply goes out of the country. The next few hours are crucial.”

He was right. Within an hour of having received his email Morales was announcing his intention to hold fresh elections.

Carlos Mesa, Morales closest rival in the now void election, was not satisfied and almost immediately called for the president and vice president Alvaro Garcia Linera to resign.

Sentiments echoed by Luis Fernando Camacho who demanded Morales step down. He told a cheering crowd in La Paz that only when they were sure that Bolivian “democracy is solid” will they “go home.”

On Wednesday, November 13, Evo Morales finally resigned and fled into exile in Mexico claiming the army had told him of a $50,000 price on his head.

Meanwhile Bolivian senator Jeanine Anez has taken over as interim president, a move Morales’ party, MAS, has said it will not recognise. I fear Mr Camacho may be in La Paz for some time.

Picture by Raul Barrios

L'articolo Bolivian President Evo Morales Agrees Fresh Elections proviene da InsideOver.