September 12 marked the thirtieth anniversary of one of the most significant moments in modern German history. In the Two Plus Four Agreement, the Four Powers renounced all rights they held in Germany, allowing Germany to reunite and become fully sovereign the following year. However, Germany’s reunification did not occur without European reservations.

The Treaty on Final Settlement

The Treaty on the Final Settlement with respect to Germany – also known as the Two Plus Four Agreement – was signed in Moscow on September 12, 1990. It was an epochal day for Germany. The signatures resulted in nothing less than the end of the occupation of the four victorious powers of the Second World War in Germany but simultaneously overcoming the division of Europe and, thus, the end of the Cold War, whose front line ran right through Germany. 

Ronald Reagan’s military build-up in the US and Gorbachev’s perestroika and glasnost in the Soviet Union had created the conditions for what appeared inconceivable for more than four decades: representatives of the two German states and the four victorious powers sat down at one Table and established a consensus.

Skepticism About German Reunification

Early in 1990, considerable reservations still existed about Germany’s reunification, especially in France and Great Britain, had still existed. The latter became apparent when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher declared indignantly at a meeting of the heads of government of the European Community in the presence of Helmut Kohl that the Germans had been “beaten twice” but had now returned, nonetheless. 

In February 1990, at the beginning of the Two Plus Four negotiations, she warned again that Germany would dominate Europe in the future. The French President François Mitterand also registered with a particular fear of what was occurring in the neighboring country. However, unlike Thatcher, he never opposed the German reunification ab initio. 

Kohl’s Strong Relationships With Foreign Leaders

However, what worked in Germany’s favor was a significant relationship between Germany’s Chancellor Helmut Kohl (CDU), Gorbachev, and President George H.W. Bush. Particularly Bush has been widely considered as one of the premier architects of Germany’s reunification. 

France, Great Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States decided on the format two-plus-four in Ottawa at the beginning of February 1990. The aim was to regulate “the foreign aspects of German unity, including questions of the security of the neighboring states with both German states”. The first round of negotiations between the six states began in Bonn in May, followed by others in East Berlin and Paris in the summer and finally in Moscow in September.

The decisive issue was the final recognition of the Oder-Neisse border between Germany and Poland, the extensive withdrawal of the Allied forces from Germany, the waiver of the victorious powers of their reservation rights, and the restoration of Germany’s full sovereignty under international law. In addition, the future membership of a united Germany, the strength of its army, and security guarantees for the neighboring states played a role.

The Final Treaty

The treaty ultimately comprised ten articles in which united Germany recognizes its current borders and undertakes not to raise any territorial claims and forego nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and reduce the Bundeswehr to a maximum of 370,000 soldiers. At the same time, Germany, the GDR, and the Soviet Union agreed to withdraw all Soviet armed forces by the end of 1994.

Finally, Article 7 contains what is probably the most important passage: the termination of all occupation rights and responsibilities of the Allies in Germany that have existed since the end of the war in 1945 and the dissolution of their institutions. The latter enabled East Germany, which belonged to the eastern military alliance “Warsaw Pact,” to become a NATO member in unified Germany, just as the Federal Republic of Germany.

Not Officially a “Peace Treaty”

While the Two Plus Four Agreement is essentially a peace treaty, the governments of both German states avoided this designation at all costs, as the negotiations with all 60 opponents of National Socialist Germany in World War II would have resulted in extensive reparation claims.

After only six months, the foreign ministers of both German states and the four allies signed the agreement on September 12, 1990, in Moscow. The Allies immediately suspended their rights; on October 2, the treaty was also presented to the CSCE states, who took note of it “with great satisfaction.” 

The way to German unity was formally sealed on October 3 – which, to this day, is celebrated as a public holiday.

However, the treaty only came into force six months later on March 15, 1991. The Soviet Union was the last of the six signatory countries to ratify the agreement, just in time for the coup against Gorbachev in the summer and against a volatile mood in the Soviet Union against reunification of Germany. 

This day and the efforts of the parties involved to bring about German reunification will be remembered forever not only in Germany but all over the world.

L'articolo Against All Odds: the Two Plus Four Agreement and Germany’s Reunification proviene da InsideOver.

The US government has announced it will prepare its withdrawal from the Treaty on Open Skies due to Russian violations.

What is the Treaty on Open Skies?

The United States plans to withdraw from the treaty between NATO and former members of the Warsaw Pact for mutual military air surveillance in six months, the White House announced on Thursday, May 21. The Treaty on Open Skies The Treaty on Open Skies is an international military agreement which allows the 34 signatory states — including the United States and Russia — to perform several observation flights annually in the airspace of the participating nations.

As a reason for the decision, President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said that the United States would not abide by agreements that were currently being violated by Russia. A Defense Department spokesman also stated that the Kremlin continued to “shamelessly violate” its contractual obligations under the treaty. Russia limits flights over the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which “reduces transparency in a very militarized area,” according to O’Brien.

Russia Responds

Russia, meanwhile, negated the accusations. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov criticized the US in Moscow on Friday for not providing any evidence for the allegations. Most importantly, the US withdrawal from the control agreement was undermining international security, according to Ryabkov. Russia was inclined to continue its treaty participation, for the time being, Ryabkov noted.

The observation flights of the treaty serve to control arms and build trust in difficult geopolitical times. Representatives of the observing and observed states always take part in all flights. President Dwight Eisenhower had initially proposed the treaty as a confidence-building measure in 1955, however, was rejected by the Soviet Union.

Then in 1992, NATO and the states of the former Warsaw Pact had agreed on mutual military surveillance “from Vancouver to Vladivostok”, following a renewed initiative by President George H.W. Bush in 1989. The treaty entered into force in 2002. Several other countries such as Sweden or the ex-Yugoslav successor states Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina also joined the treaty. For the US itself, overflights for the US military have become less important in recent years, thanks to modern surveillance satellites, however. Already in 2016, the Defense Department commented that the overflights under the treaty primarily provided valuable information for allies and partners who did not possess the same surveillance capabilities as the United States.

International Reaction to Trump’s Move

Internationally, the Trump administration’s plan has been met with objection. Ten European countries expressed regret that the US would exit the treaty and pledged to continue implementing the agreement with Russia. Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said he deplored the announcement by the US government collectively with his colleagues from France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Finland, the Czech Republic and Sweden. Maas considers the treaty as an essential part of the European arms control architecture, as it had contributed to “security and peace” across the northern hemisphere. However, Maas also admitted that there had indeed been difficulties in implementing the treaty on the Russian side in recent years, albeit these did not justify termination, Maas concluded. The contract thus remained “functional and meaningful”, the EU’s joint declaration stated, although Russia was called upon to return to the full implementation of the contract. Besides the EU, NATO also seeks to discuss the future of the treaty shortly.

Germany’s Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer also declared that it was a legitimate question whether Russia had been violating the treaty. Nonetheless, she said that a defective multilateral agreement was more desirable than no agreement at all. In any case, Germany’s commitment to the treaty was undaunted.

The United States has already left various international agreements under President Trump, including the nuclear agreement with Iran, the Paris climate accord and the INF treaty banning land-based mid-range nuclear weapons. The latter was concluded between the United States and the then Soviet Union and was considered the most significant nuclear disarmament agreement for Europe to date.

L'articolo US Seeks to Withdraw from the Treaty on Open Skies proviene da InsideOver.

Sultan Qaboos bin Said, the ruler of Oman, passed away Jan. 10. Oman is a country that barely registers when one thinks of the Middle East, but for good reasons. Under Qaboos’ leadership, Oman was transformed into an exemplary Middle Eastern state in practically all areas of development, including education, health, and economy. Moreover, Qaboos leveraged his nation’s diplomatic power and proximity to regional conflict zones to broker peace. While neighboring states seemed to invite discord, Oman sought stability. Qaboos’ named his cousin, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, as his successor to the throne.

Following in Qaboos’ Footsteps

After assuming the mantle of sultan, Haitham vowed to “follow the same line as the late sultan, and the principles that he asserted for the foreign policy of our country, of peaceful coexistence among nations and people, and good neighborly behavior of non-interference in the affairs of others,” according to a Foreign Affairs report. 

Haitham is no stranger to Oman – he served in the Foreign Ministry and as Heritage and Culture Minister. His appointment also does not come as a shock as he was widely believed to be the first choice as successor. 

“He is described by those who have met him as quiet, steady, and a good listener,” Nikita Lalwani, Josh Rubin, and Sam Winter-Levy reported for Foreign Affairs. 

In the past, the 65-year-old Haitham studied at the University of Oxford’s Foreign Service Programme. In addition to numerous Omani honours, he also received the Order of King Abdulaziz from Saudi Arabia, the Grand Decoration of Honour for Services to the Republic of Austria, and the Honorary Knight Grand Cross of the Royal Victorian Order from Britain. 

Curing an Oil Dependency

While Haitham by all accounts may be as well-liked as his predecessor, likability alone will not solve an oil crisis on the horizon. As is the case with most Middle Eastern states, Oman depends heavily on oil revenues. Haitham attempted to preempt the inevitable outcome of running out of oil while he served in the Foreign Ministry. If any faults can be found in the new ruler, it is his failure to carve out new sources of revenue for his nation. 

Oil accounts for 70 to 85 percent of Oman’s revenues, according to Foreign Policy. A plan outlined by Qaboos, dubbed Vision 2020, was designed to diversify Oman’s economy, but now that the target year has arrived, the plan was extended to 2040. Haitham will have to grapple with creating a path for the future and thus far, no details have made clear what that might entail.

Despite the love of their late sultan, Omanis joined in the Arab Spring protests of 2011 to rally against corruption and unemployment. Qaboos responded by creating more government positions, which largely came through the Royal Oman Police. 

Borrowing a page from the Saudi playbook, Oman instituted an “Omanization” programme designed to curtail migrant workers taking jobs that would otherwise go to Omani citizens. This has arguably hurt private companies more than it has helped citizens. Expats are still prevalent in the workforce, with more than 40 percent of the population being migrants. Often companies will either create unproductive positions for Omanis or simply reduce their foreign worker count and leave the positions unfilled.

While Haitham has inherited a significant economic problem, his predecessor proved even the most difficult and institutionalised problems can be overcome. Qaboos pushed for greater gender equality by giving females the right to vote in 2002, putting women in government posts, and overseeing an employment revolution in which women enjoy equality in opportunities and pay. 

More broadly, Qaboos oversaw the rise of life expectancy from 50 years to 77. When he took the throne, the state had only 10 km of paved road and three schools. Now it boasts 29,000 km of paved roads and education can be considered among the best in the world with 96 percent adult literacy thanks to the establishing of 1,500 schools. 

Diplomatically, Oman helped broker peace between Israel and Egypt, and it mediated talks between the US and Iran during the presidency of Barack Obama, which led to the Iranian nuclear deal. 

Its relationship with the US, in particular, is storied, dating back to the first American president, George Washington. Oman was also the first Arab state to dispatch diplomats to America.

In short, Qaboos handed his successor a prosperous nation, even considering its oil dependence. Haitham, if he makes good on his word to follow the footsteps of his predecessor, will have an easier time than most of his regional neighbors. Continuing Oman’s tradition of peace and diplomacy will allow Haitham to focus his attention on overcoming economic problems, a luxury few are afforded in the current geopolitical climate.

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