North Korea’s Workers’ Party hosted a rare meeting that resulted in the nation’s leader, Kim Jong-un, being awarded a symbolically important position solidifying his authoritarian grip on the nation. It’s been almost a decade since Kim succeeded his father, Kim Jong-il, becoming the third member of the Kim dynasty to rule the country.

But this past weekend, only days after his 37th birthday, Kim was anointed the ruling party’s General Secretary, a post once held by his father and his grandfather, Kim Il-sung.

Takeover Displays Kim’s Growing Confidence

Some analysts have concluded that this move was intended to strengthen his grip on power. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told the Guardian that Kim’s takeover “shows his confidence, that he has now officially joined the ranks of his father and grandfather.”

According to the Charter of the Workers’ Party of Korea, the General Secretary is the Supreme Leader of the Workers’ Party. The Party Congress nominates and elects the General Secretary. The Party Conference is also allowed to nominate and subsequently elect the General Secretary. What this means in practice is that the General Secretary is also a member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau, which is a committee consisting of the top leadership of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

Kim will also act as head of the Executive Policy Bureau. This body manages the work of the Politburo of the Workers’ Party and its Presidium, headed by the Chairman and made up of party secretaries.

Kim’s Made it Clear He’s King of the Castle

Kim has expanded his influence over the management of the Workers’ Party and his latest actions indicate that he has centralized his power base. His recent changes also provide observers with a hint as to what his policy concerns are going to be over the next few years. First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, who was involved in negotiations with Washington, has not been elected to the Politburo. No diplomatic official has been appointed to one of the seven newly created secretary posts. This proves that Kim will focus on economic sanctions and the effects of COVID-19 instead of foreign policy. It is more than likely that he will concentrate on building up Pyongyang’s military forces too.

Despite the fact that Kim has not hurled any insults toward Joe Biden, the incoming US President, he still labeled the US as North Korea’s ‘biggest enemy’ during the first Congress of the Workers’ Party in five years. His challenge to Washington included the prospect of a nuclear-powered submarine, now supposedly in the testing stage. He also intends to build on existing nuclear technology with smaller nuclear warheads.

Kim Intends to Take Full Control of His Country’s Destiny

Although Kim will be focusing on domestic issues, he is still open to the prospect of denuclearization so long as Washington ends its “aggressive” policies toward Pyongyang. US President Donald Trump’s move to meet Kim was ballsy, but it failed to persuade Kim to end his nuclear program. Unless Biden can somehow end the current deadlock, there is no reason why the North Korean leader won’t continue to build up his country’s military arsenal.

What is also interesting is that the North Korean leader removed his sister, Kim Yo-jong, from the Politburo, yet she retained her membership of the Central Committee. Some may argue that this could be interpreted as a demotion, but Yo-jong exercised considerable influence during Kim’s summits with the Trump administration, so it is more than likely that she will oversee Pyongyang’s relations with South Korea.

The timing of Kim’s latest actions is no coincidence. They come just as Joe Biden is about to be sworn in as the next US President. What they also suggest is that Kim intends to take full control of North Korea’s destiny.

L'articolo North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Gets Big Power Boost proviene da InsideOver.

North Korea’s recent military parade was attended by leader Kim Jong-un and was an opportunity for the regime to restore some pride back to a nation that has had a devastating summer as a result of a long monsoon season and economic damage wrought by the coronavirus.

However, the parade also provided observers with a frightening insight into the militaristic ambitions of its leader.

Dramatic Display of ‘Massive’ Long Range ICBMS

The parade was meant to mark the 75th anniversary of the Workers’ Party, but correspondents say that previously unseen “massive” long range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) were displayed. This is typical of North Korea’s regimes to use parades to show off new missiles and weaponry.

North Korea had not featured ballistic missiles in its parades since US President Donald Trump and his North Korean counterpart held their first summit in 2018.

Pyongyang’s Plans Military Buildup

Kim said during a speech to those who attended the parade that Pyongyang would continue to “strengthen its military for self-defense and deterrence.”

The recent military display was immediately condemned by US officials. One senior US government figure called on Pyongyang to commit itself to total denuclearization immediately.

Meanwhile, experts said that the new, larger ICBM is likely designed to carry multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs), allowing it to attack more targets and making interception more difficult.

Markus Garlauskas, a former US intelligence officer for North Korea, told the Daily Mail that the new ICBM is intended to dispel doubts about Pyongyang’s ability to strike the US, and that they are preparing to test the missile.

The US-North Korean Peace Process is Over

Either way, North Korea’s military parade is a clear sign that the US-North Korean peace process that Trump has been overseeing for the last two years is over. Victor Cha, who was the director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007, believes that Trump cannot hope to achieve a successful outcome in North Korea without the help of China. Yet a coordinated response between Washington and Beijing to end Pyongyang’s nuclear program seems out of the question for now.

Both Trump’s 18-month trade war with China and the coronavirus have caused US-Chinese relations to reach an all-time low, and over the weekend Beijing proved that it has no interest in persuading Kim to scale back his military ambitions. In a congratulatory message to the North Korean leader for the anniversary, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that he intended to ‘defend, consolidate and develop ties’ with North Korea.

At a time when the world seems to be turning against China, Beijing has few allies left and it is no wonder that they are keen to develop their relationship with North Korea.

Trump deserves a lot of credit for his extraordinary efforts to bring peace to the Korean peninsular. He has been accused of sucking up to dictators by his opponents, but he is the first US president to enter North Korea by taking 20 steps into the nation.

Ending Pyongyang’s Nuclear Program is No Longer a Realistic Goal

Also, Trump almost succeeded in securing an agreement with Kim during the Hanoi summit in February, but he failed to do so because the US president would not compromise on sanctions relief.

Despite this, Kim expressed his willingness over the weekend to foster peaceful relations with South Korea. Whoever wins the US election in November should prioritize ending the hostilities between Seoul and Pyongyang, as ending the latter’s nuclear program seems like an unrealistic prospect. One benefit of such a policy could be that it slowly steers North Korea away from Chinese influence.

The Trump administration is paralyzed at the moment and it cannot continue to develop its foreign policy toward North Korea until the outcome of the US election has been decided. Unless the next US president can defy all odds and commit Pyongyang to an agreement that cuts back its nuclear weapons, thwarting Kim’s military ambitions seems like a lost cause now. Fostering peaceful relations between Pyongyang and Seoul, however, could be achieved as long as Kim does not go back on his word, and many observers know he is renowned for that.

L'articolo Why North Korea’s ICBM Missiles Ruin Any Chance of Peace with US proviene da InsideOver.

Questions are being raised again over the effectiveness of sanctions against North Korea after a recent United Nations (UN) report revealed that North Korea has successfully built miniature nuclear weapons. The UN document also states that the North Korean regime has achieved a key breakthrough in its nuclear program by creating a nuclear warhead small enough to be carried on a nuclear missile.

The Recent Revelations

The UN said on Monday that Pyongyang is violating international sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear program by exceeding a cap on petroleum imports and sending its workers overseas, including a former Juventus footballer.

Furthermore, the UN Security Council said an annual 500,000 barrel cap on imports of refined petroleum products had been broken in the first five months of 2020 alone.

Considering US President Donald Trump has committed himself to bringing peace to the Korean peninsula, the world would normally look to his country for a reaction to a report like the one the UN has produced recently. Regardless, his administration is powerless until the winner of the November election has been declared.

Sanctions Against North Korea are Failing

Nonetheless, this news, alongside a series of revelations in the last month that have exposed how North Korea is evading US sanctions, calls into question the US’s approach toward North Korea. Earlier this month, NBC News obtained a trove of confidential bank documents which revealed how North Korea moves illicit cash across borders despite international sanctions to block Pyongyang’s access to the global financial system.

The suspected laundering by North Korea-linked organizations totaled more than $174.8 million over several years, with transactions approved by American banks like JPMorgan Chase and the Bank of New York Mellon.

Yet that does not mean sanctions have had no effect on Kim Jong-un’s regime.

North Korea’s UN Ambassador Kim Song told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that despite his country’s “reliable and effective war deterrent for self-defense,” international sanctions were a hindrance to the North Korean leader’s plans to accelerate his nation’s economy. This could be interpreted by the Trump administration as an admission that sanctions are damaging North Korea’s economy.

Nonetheless, regardless of who wins the US election in November, peace seems unlikely for many reasons.

Cooperation with China is Out of the Question

Firstly, the West needs Beijing’s help to tackle North Korea, but a coordinated response with China is out of the question for now. Even if Joe Biden wins the US election, he will be forced to adopt a tough stance toward Beijing because of the coronavirus originating from there. Yet China provides North Korea’s economy with a critical lifeline, so assuming the current tension between Beijing and Washington does not escalate into a cold war, cooperation between the two powers may be necessary at some stage.

Kim is aware that the number of sanctions against his regime will increase if there are no cuts to Pyongyang’s nuclear program, yet that has not stopped him from supposedly developing miniature nuclear weapons. It is clear he cannot be trusted to commit himself to peace, which means negotiations are a waste of time.

North Korea’s Regime Must Go

The only way peace can become a reality would be if North Korea’s regime collapsed, and this looks like a strong possibility. A long monsoon season damaged 96,300 acres of farmland and 16,680 homes, including roads and rail lines. Also, food shortages caused Kim to respond by ordering pet dogs to be confiscated for food.

This is a regime in trouble and if it refuses to accept outside help, its end is inevitable.

The more North Korea defies international sanctions, the less likely its leader is to commit to a reduction in its nuclear program. No matter who occupies the White House from January onward, they will probably struggle to ensure Kim commits to ending his nuclear program. To give peace a chance, the current regime in Pyongyang must go, and it must go as soon as possible.

L'articolo Does North Korea’s Mini-Ballistic Missile Program Make Peace Unlikely? proviene da InsideOver.

Iran and North Korea are once again taking center stage in American politics as US President Donald Trump intends to proceed with issuing an executive order imposing fresh sanctions on Iranians linked to his country’s energy industry, despite key European nations warning that he does not have the legal power to do so.

The President has declared that anyone trading arms with Iran will remain subject to sanctions beyond October, the date the embargo was due to be lifted.

Suspected North Korean Money Laundering

Meanwhile, the effectiveness of sanctions is being questioned after NBC News obtained a trove of confidential bank documents which reveal how North Korea moves illicit cash across borders despite international sanctions to block Pyongyang’s access to the global financial system.

The suspected laundering by North Korea-linked organizations totaled more than $174.8 million over several years, with transactions approved by American banks like JPMorgan Chase and the Bank of New York Mellon.

During a time when Trump is keen to avoid war with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the US President has resorted to sanctions as a method of economic combat with the leaders of the two rogue states.

North Korea Could Be Building up its Military Arsenal

Trump has also used sanctions as a means of persuasion to force Rouhani and Kim back to the negotiating table. Throughout the first term of his presidency, Trump’s sanctions have failed to convince the Iranian and North Korean leaders to negotiate new peace agreements that would lead to a reduction of US sanctions, in exchange for the gradual end of Pyongyang’s and Tehran’s nuclear programs.

The Daily Mail reports that South Korea’s incoming military chief Won In-choul is monitoring developments in North Korea, after satellite photos have revealed a flurry of activity at the Sinpo South Shipyard where Pyongyang builds submarines. This could be the first time that the country’s regime will showcase its largest missiles since 2018.

With only less than two months before a presidential election, it is unlikely that Trump will achieve a landmark deal with North Korea to convince voters that he is the man who can tackle Kim.

Sanctions Can’t Do Everything

When President Obama issued fresh sanctions on Iran in July 2010, Nicholas Burns, the most senior professional US diplomat in the Bush administration, said they failed because countries like China ignored them. Yet the former president was able to eventually persuade the EU, Russia and China to support his 2015 Iran deal.

The BBC’s Jonathan Marcus argued that sanctions can only work if they are universally applied. This is the issue that Trump faces – no other nation is following his lead on Iran or North Korea, mostly because he has fallen out with the nations involved in the 2015 Iran deal. If the US President wins November’s election, he must persuade his country’s allies to follow his lead on Iran and North Korea.

Victor Cha, who was the director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007, said Trump needs China’s help to tackle Jong-un as Beijing supports Pyongyang’s economy. Tensions between Washington and Beijing are only likely to escalate in the future, which means the two nations are unlikely to cooperate on peace in North Korea.

Trump Can’t Solve These Problems on His Own

Given Pyongyang’s recent problems regarding flooding and the economic effects of the coronavirus, it appears that the only way to defeat North Korea now is by hoping that its regime collapses, which means Trump could deploy more sanctions in the future to cripple Kim.

Trump bragged that he will ‘have a deal with Iran within four weeks’ of his re-election, and to do so he must persuade his allies to support a deal that cuts US sanctions in exchange for the gradual end of Tehran’s nuclear program, as outlined by French President Emmanuel Macron last October. Considering the US’s allies refused to support Washington over its latest announcement on sanctions against Iran, it remains questionable as to whether they would support such a deal.

If sanctions are a means to an end, then Trump has failed to deploy them effectively against Iran. North Korea’s money laundering scheme proves they are finding ways to break their own US sanctions. To end the threat that Iran and North Korea pose to Washington, Trump needs to be more imaginative.

L'articolo Have US Sanctions Against Iran and North Korea Failed? proviene da InsideOver.

With all the contradictory reports about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un bombarding the media right now and the lack of transparency from the country’s regime in general, it is difficult to ascertain the truth about the state of the dictator’s well-being.

Conflicting Reports about Kim Jong-un’s Health

According to The Sun, Kim is in a coma as North Korea prepares to hand power to his sister, Kim Yo-jong. Rumors about Kim’s health have been circulating since April, with some reports suggesting that he is in a “vegetative state” following a botched heart operation.

Although late South Korean President Kim Dae-jung consistently insisted that the rogue state is hiding the truth about their leader’s health, it has been confirmed by South Korea’s spy agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), that Kim has already gradually started to transfer authority to his 33-year-old sister, with the North Korean leader determining events in the background.

Kim’s Departure Won’t Change Anything

These rumors have been triggered by the North Korean leader’s lack of public appearances this year, though North Korea News reported last week that Kim presided over a plenary meeting of the country’s ruling Workers’ Party on August 19 where members discussed “an issue of crucial significance.”

Regardless of whether Kim is in good health or not, a leadership change is not the answer to North Korea’s growing problems. Even if Kim Yo-jong is starting to enjoy more responsibility while her brother supposedly remains in critical condition, her consolidation of power will represent business as usual for the country’s regime.

Kim Yo-jong Will Also Likely Fail to Get a Nuclear Deal with the US

Considering US President Donald Trump failed to make any progress with Kim in persuading North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, Kim Yo-jong would almost definitely be an even bigger obstacle for the US’s ambitions in the Korean peninsular.

In 2017, the dictator’s sister was made a member of the politburo, the Workers’ Party’s senior ruling committee, which provided her with greater power over state security.

However, Kim Yo-jong was then demoted in 2019 after she was held responsible for the failure of the Hanoi Summit, which saw Trump scrap denuclearization talks. If Kim’s sister was ineffective at reaching progress with the US as a member of the politburo, she would be even worse at this task if she became North Korea’s leader.

Kim Yo-jong’s Remarkable Comeback

Despite her past demotion, Kim Yo-jong has had a rapid return to favor after falling out of grace with her brother. Kim’s sister was elected to the Supreme People’s Assembly as a representative for Killimgil in 2019.

In April 2020, she was reinstated to the Workers’ Party’s politburo.

Since becoming a prominent figure in Pyongyang again, Yo-jong has taunted neighboring South Korea. In July, she made her first public statement, referring to Seoul as a “frightened dog barking” after the South Korean Government protested about the North’s live-fire military exercise. While her brother has made strides with the South, these actions prove that a North Korean regime led by Kim’s sister would reverse progress both sides of the Korean peninsular have made in recent years.

The US and South Korea Should Worry About Kim Yo-jong

Kim Yo-jong has a talent for transforming her political fortunes, but because she is an influential member of the Workers’ Party and Kim Jong-un’s sibling, there will be no pragmatic solutions to North Korea’s problems, which include food shortages, the economic impact of the coronavirus and flooding. There is no evidence to suggest that her beliefs are any different to her brother’s, which means that if Kim does have to resign, then Pyongyang will miss out on an opportunity to introduce any genuine changes.

As soon as the North Korean leader became ill, he was never likely to let his grip over his country’s regime loosen. This is why his sister is the best person to potentially succeed him as their ideological outlooks are practically the same. But the US and South Korea should worry about Kim Yo-jong becoming North Korea’s leader, as she could thwart all the progress Washington and Seoul have made to try and normalize relations with Pyongyang.

L'articolo Why Fresh Leadership in North Korea Won’t Change Anything proviene da InsideOver.

US Cities Within North Korean Striking Range

The report, which cited claims from anonymous nations, was penned by “an independent panel of experts” tasked with overseeing states sanctioned by the UN, as Reuters reported. If it is true that North Korea has developed nuclear weapons that can be launched within ballistic missiles, the dynamic of the US–North Korea relationship may be forever altered.

“The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is continuing its nuclear program, including the production of highly enriched uranium and construction of an experimental light water reactor. A Member State assessed that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is continuing production of nuclear weapons,” according to the report, which was forwarded to the UN Security Council North Korea sanctions committee.

The report has not yet been made public, though Reuters reviewed a copy of it.

Pyongyang’s miniaturized arsenal could put American cities within striking distance according to Newsweek. Combined with its armament of intercontinental ballistic missiles, North Korea “achieved a plausible enough ability—even if it was not perfectly reliable—to be able to hold the U.S. homeland at risk,” said Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at MIT and a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

‘This is Not a Theory, it’s Almost Certainly a Fact’

That development should not come as a shock, however, as experts monitoring the situation have long-suspected Pyongyang possesses the capabilities. 

“To be quite honest, I am shocked this is even news at this point,” said Harry Kazianis, the senior director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest.

“The only question now is how accurate would the delivery of a nuclear device be and how many hundreds of thousands of people—if not millions—would die in such an attack. This is not a theory, it’s almost certainly a fact,” Kazianis added.

Creating a Deterrence

The Kim dynasty has dreamed of nuclear weapons since the state’s founding, but Kim and his father, Kim Jong Il significantly quickened the development pace. The late leader’s ambitions resulted in UN sanctions in 2006, but that only increased the state’s push for nuclear armament. However, the last known nuclear test by Pyongyang was in September 2017, suggesting either that the state has abandoned its nuclear program or achieved its goal.

The UN report gives credence to the latter. In fact, although North Korea demolished tunnels at a nuclear test site in May 2018, the report states that one observer nation found the installation can be rebuilt within three months. The tunnel demolition was only for show—Pyongyang had no earnest intention to shutter its nuclear program.

In July, Kim declared his state had achieved its nuclear goal, NBC News reported.

“Thanks to our reliable and effective self-defense nuclear deterrence, the word war would no longer exist on this land, and the security and future of our state will be guaranteed forever,” Kim said. 

At the time, some observers may have misconstrued his words to be more of the same: propaganda with no real substance behind it, like when Kim promised the US a “Christmas gift” last year. The new UN report, however, means that Kim wasn’t bluffing when he celebrated the nuclear achievement.

A History of Relationship Failures

Given that North Korea now possesses miniaturized nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US mainland, Washington must change its approach to Pyongyang. Previous American administrations tried an array of strategies from preparing for war to pursuing normalization.

After Kim ascended to office, relations became more dicey as he shed notions of diplomacy in pursuit of nuclear weapons. American President Donald Trump brought a fresh approach to handling Kim by reaching out in an almost friend-like manner. The two exchanged correspondence, with Trump bragging about letters on several occasions. Trump and Kim thrice met in what had appeared to be hopeful negotiations. 

All of that was for not, however as talks broke down without a signed agreement. North Korean officials have since blamed the US for being unwilling to offer enough concessions to stop pursuing nuclear weapons. More recently, Pyongyang has said it refuses to hold further talks because Trump is only engaging in them for political theater, not to actually resolve the dispute between the two powers.

Since the June 2019 meeting between Trump, Kim, and South Korean President Moon Jae In at the DMZ, Washington has effectively turned a blind eye to North Korea. While the Trump administration has tackled crises and invited trouble with a handful of other states—Iran, China, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Russia, Turkey, and Germany, to name a few—North Korea hasn’t received the attention it once did. 

Time for America to Rethink Its NK Strategy

Washington must rededicate itself to pursuing diplomacy with Pyongyang, however, given the threat it now seems to pose.

“US strategy towards North Korea’s nuclear program needs to be radically re-imagined, as we operate today as if North Korea can’t build, won’t build or hasn’t built nuclear weapons—a type of nuclear denialism that quite frankly is dangerous,” Kazianis told Newsweek. He went on to suggest that since the US coexists with a nuclearized Russia, China, and Pakistan, North Korea should receive the same treatment. 

Ignorance of the situation, denial of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and bullying disguised as negotiating are all tactics that simply will not improve the US–North Korea relationship. Moreover, Washington’s treatment of Pyongyang will only further serve to reinforce its resolve that nuclear weapons are the only way to engender respect from America.

The problem, however, is that now that it has nuclear capabilities, if the US doesn’t honor that reality, North Korea could be compelled to make a show of force. Nuclear weapons for the Kim dynasty have always been about becoming equal to China, Russia, and the US. It wants a seat at that same table and has viewed nuclear armament as a means to that end.

The time to start listening to North Korea is now, before it’s too late. A renewed approach that respects Pyongyang rather than patronizes it could return diplomatic dividends.

L'articolo North Korea’s Miniaturized Nuclear Weapons Demand a New Approach from Washington proviene da InsideOver.

Bringing peace to the Korean peninsula could have been one of US President Donald Trump’s crowning achievements during his first term in office. He has gone to extraordinary lengths to try and secure a peaceful outcome with North Korea and taken unprecedented steps that none of his predecessors would ever have dreamed of. For example, he symbolically entered North Korean soil to shake hands with the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

Peace is Still a Long Way Off

With a presidential election only months away, it is looking increasingly unlikely that Trump can brag to his electorate that he has become the first American leader to officially end the Korean War. Instead of clamping down on its nuclear program, CNN reports that there has been activity at an undeclared North Korean facility that researchers suspect is being used to build nuclear weapons.

The Korean Peace Process is at a Stalemate

The peace process has reached a stalemate for other reasons as well. The US is ready to continue stalled nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang, according to Stephen Biegun, Washington’s envoy to North Korea, who made the comments during a visit to South Korea. He is hoping to get talks started again before the US general election in November.

Meanwhile, Kim has been making far fewer public appearances than usual. On Wednesday, it was reported that he marked the anniversary of the death of his grandfather, North Korea’s founding leader Kim Il Sung, by visiting his mausoleum at Pyongyang’s Kumsusan Palace of the Sun. The North Korean leader has also recently refused to meet with his US counterpart again.

However, Trump’s attention throughout his entire presidency has been distracted by another authoritarian regime in Asia- China. The US President triggered an 18-month trade war with Chinese President Xi Jinping which ended with Phase 1 of a US-China trade deal in January. Nonetheless, the coronavirus triggered another dispute between both nations.

Trump Cannot Have it Both Ways

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hinted earlier this week that the US must adopt a different approach to Beijing which contrasts with the one previous administrations have taken to open up China’s economy to the world. Without revealing too much in advance what the American President wants to do with Beijing, the Secretary of State suggested that the Trump administration is considering banning Chinese social media apps like TikTok. This was then confirmed by Trump himself on Thursday as part of a series of measures his administration will be rolling out to punish China for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

The problem with the Trump administration’s twin-track approach of tackling China whilst attempting to end the Korean War is that the US President needs Chinese involvement in the Korean peace process to ensure the latter reaches a successful conclusion. Unless US-Chinese tensions can end peacefully, it will be difficult for the Trump administration to ask Beijing to help them in Korea in any meaningful way.

Trump Needs China On Side if He Wants North Korean Peace

Victor Cha, the former director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007, also believes that Trump needs China to restore peace in Korea. If China and the US could cooperate more on this issue, then the Trump administration could persuade Xi to end his country’s payments to Pyongyang until the latter has cut back on its nuclear program.

At some stage, Beijing should also be persuaded to clamp down on Chinese individuals doing business in North Korea. For example, the US successfully shamed four Chinese citizens who attempted to evade US sanctions in September 2016.

The simple truth is that Trump cannot have it both ways on China and North Korea. Pyongyang has no incentive to end its nuclear program while Washington continues to deploy sanctions against them. The peace process needs more stick now, and only China can provide it because Chinese payments to North Korea help preserve Kim’s regime. For now, the Korean peace process will continue to remain an unresolved problem that will haunt future US presidents.

L'articolo Why Trump Can’t Have Peace with North Korea while Also Tackling China proviene da InsideOver.

North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un has rarely been seen in public as of late. His most recent appearance reportedly occurred during a military meeting – during which the country’s nuclear deterrence strategy was in focus. At a meeting of the military commission in North Korea, Kim — who has been submerged in the media spotlight for several weeks — reportedly discussed putting the strategic armed forces on high alert.

Heightening of North Korea’s Military Readiness

North Korean state media reported on Sunday that Kim chaired an extended meeting of the Labor Party’s military commission that outlined a new policy for further expanding the country’s nuclear power and its deterrence.

The reports also stated that the meeting discussed the options of putting the strategic armed forces “on high alert” effective immediately. How and when the new policies are to be implemented was not reported. However, South Korean intelligence assumed the meeting took place on Saturday, May 23, as North Korea often only reports on important meetings or events a day later.

The internationally isolated leadership of North Korea reportedly held the meeting after analyses had shown “a series of deficits in the military and political activities of the general armed forces” in the country. Accordingly, the main agenda for North Korea was now to improve the capabilities to militarily deter the threatening foreign forces such as South Korea and the United States. Significant measures were reportedly taken during the meeting to increase the firepower of the people’s artillery effective immediately.

North Korea’s Current Status

North Korea remains subject to severe United Nations Security Council sanctions for its nuclear weapons program. In its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, which was destroyed two years ago, the country had carried out its six nuclear tests, the last and most significant so far in September 2017.

Negotiations with the United States about nuclear disarmament have led nowhere since the failed summit between Kim and President Trump in Singapore in 2018 and Vietnam in February 2019. Neither side could agree on an agreeable roadmap for Pyongyang’s nuclear disarmament.

Kim, who, according to South Korean intelligence, is 36-years-old, has rarely been seen in public in the past two months. His appearance at the inauguration of a fertilizer factory on May 1 had put an end to speculation abroad about his demise. After these reports had transpired, however, Kim disappeared from North Korea’s stage again. It is speculated that he will significantly limit his appearances and otherwise typical inspection trips through the country due to the coronavirus pandemic in the coming weeks and months. North Korea has so far, reportedly has had no confirmed infections.

Trump Considering First US Nuclear Test in Almost Three Decades

The reports about North Korea’s military meeting occurs after a Washington Post reported that the United States considered its first nuclear test since 1992 as a warning to Russia and China. According to the paper, President Trump’s administration discussed this possibility at a meeting on May 15, which quoted a senior government official and two former US officials.

Arms Control Association non-governmental leader Daryl Kimball told the Washington Post that such a decision would likely disrupt negotiations with Kim, “who may not be forced to adhere to his nuclear test moratorium.”

Korea was divided by the United States and the Soviet Union — similar to Germany after the Second World War — and a division followed soon after by the Korean War from 1950 to 1953. The war — which is technically still ongoing — cemented the status quo of North and South Korea to the present day. The United States has historically been an ally of South Korea, while China has been an ally of the authoritarian Communist North. According to international law, the state of war continues to exist as the 1953 ceasefire between the North and the South was never followed up with a signed peace treaty.

L'articolo North Korea Seeks Increased Nuclear Deterrence proviene da InsideOver.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made news this week by simply appearing at an event. There had been a great deal of discussion and rumors that he had died or was brain dead. But Kim visited a fertilizer plant with only a mysterious mark on his wrist. Given his family’s history of heart disease the mark was likely a right radial artery puncture, which is performed to get a blood sample for analysis for a cardiovascular procedure. His mysterious disappearance has reinserted North Korea and Trump’s negotiations back into the news once again.

Diplomacy With North Korea

Despite the breaking news of Kim’s reappearance, the fundamentals of North Korean foreign policy haven’t changed. President Donald Trump is focusing on the effects of coronavirus and reelection, which puts him and US policy in a holding pattern. This diplomacy involves several intractable problems with little immediate solutions. North Korea is armed with nuclear weapons, heavily fortified and is a hedgehog of artillery and other weapon systems within easy range of Seoul. All of which makes military options less effective and the risk for retaliation high.

Boosting South Korea

The US has decreased the threat by placing missile defense systems in South Korea. The US can further reduce the threat by removing American personnel from South Korea and informing South Korea government officials that they should prepare by moving their people into bomb shelters and safer locations. These latter factors are important to watch for, since they are good indications that a strike by the US is imminent.

But there is an avenue for progress tied to the relationship between Trump and Kim. The exchange of notes in the past summit didn’t lead to any breakthroughs, but seems to indicate greater trust and maybe even friendship between the two leaders. Before the first summit the Korean Peninsula was predicted by many analysts to be the next place for war. But now there is reasonable hope of a deal and an unlikely friendship between the two leaders despite the different stances they have on two key issues.

Taking Off Sanctions?

The first major issue included revolves around the removal of sanctions. North Korea argues they would have frozen the research at the Yongbyan site in exchange for a partial loosening of sanctions. The fact that North Korea is so keen on having sanctions lifted suggests they are meaningful despite failing to change the North Korean regime or stop their program, as will be discussed below.

The other key point besides sanctions was the gradual decommission of their nuclear program. North Korea has promised freezes in the program, particularly around the key Yongbyan nuclear reactor. But this didn’t satisfy the United States in the most recent negotiations. The deal under former President Bill Clinton, for example, shutdown that site, but it was rather inexpensive and relatively easy for them to reactivate it at a later time. This is probably why President Trump wasn’t ready to accept that concession as meaningful, or as reason enough to at least partially loosen the sanctions.

Can Great Leaders Shift History Despite Underlying Factors?

The high-level negotiations represent the great person view of history, but the underlying economics most closely resembles the larger factors involved. The great person view of history often focuses on the actions of key leaders such as Reagan and Gorbachev in the driving events. It is countered by a discussion of larger forces like economic trends.  We see the interplay between both of those models here because high level negotiations can lead to improvements, but the matters discussed are often the result of larger trends like long term sanctions.

While those sanctions haven’t yet incentivized Kim to shut down the program, they are still painful which is why they are ready to make concessions to have them partially lifted. The average citizen in North Korea is both poor and malnourished, some analysts say they are even starving, and even Chairmen Kim can’t live as luxuriously as he would like with sanctions on key goods.

Is Change Still Possible?

These sanctions act as an important tool to produce changes in the regime, or regime change itself. Their removal also acts as an important carrot. But their inability to produce change over the last 25 years has produced a need and opening for interpersonal diplomacy, or the great person model of foreign policy. If impersonal economic factors don’t affect Kim, and he seems indifferent to the suffering of his people, perhaps a friendship and meeting with Trump might produce change.

Many years from now and especially if Kim decides to change, then this event will be viewed as a “tear down this wall” moment. But even then, the long-term economic suffering of North Korea will leave Trump’s critics plenty of reasons to argue that Trump didn’t affect the US-North Korea equation.

In the end, Trump’s focus on politics and helping guide America through the virus allows those long-term forces to work in North Korea. That and the combination of high-level diplomacy such as Trump welcoming Kim back via Twitter represent the best hope for a North Korean breakthrough.

L'articolo North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un is Alive: is There Still a Chance for Peace? proviene da InsideOver.

North Korea is the most sealed-off country in the world and it is difficult to verify what happens within its borders. Crime stories, secrets, mysteries, leaks, rumors, unconfirmed reports and often fully-fledged fake news frequently emerge and are hard to sort out. It is hard for anybody who does not live in North Korea to verify what happens within its borders. It is for this reason, in other words the chronic lack of confirmed reports, that matters relating to the ”Hermit Kingdom” should always be treated with caution and skepticism.

Manipulating the Western View of North Korea

The North Korean political system has learned quickly to leverage the western media’s atavistic hunger for news to mock their way of thinking. Over the years the script has always been the same: beyond the 38th parallel something strange is happening and as nobody can go there and check what is going on foreign journalists make assumption after assumption. At the end of the day, after all sorts of suppositions have been put forward, everything returns to normal and the supposed oddity proves to be a nothing burger.

This is exactly what happened recently in the case of Kim Jong Un. North Korea’s leader had disappeared from the scene for 21 days before returning to the spotlight at the inauguration of a fertilizer factory. No, it is not the first time that Pyongyang has left so many people at a loss. In the past there have been other mysterious episodes that have given rise to all kinds of speculation.

The Mysterious ‘Death’ of Kim Il Sung

The first thriller worthy of note dates back to 1986 when virtually all the international press wrote that Kim Jong Un’s grandfather and former leader of the country Kim Il Sung had been assassinated. The Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun endorsed the theory that the grandfather of the current North Korean President ”had been killed by high-ranking officers of the armed forces following an alleged pro-Chinese conspiracy by members of the army opposed to the rapprochement between North Korea and the USSR.”

There were various versions of the supposed attack: an assault on the presidential train replete with submachine guns and bombs, an attack on the leader’s armored car, a shootout and even a killing that occurred during an inspection. The North Korean diplomats abroad immediately denied the reconstructions, branding them pure fabrications.

In South Korea the Chosun Ilbo newspaper went further, writing that the loudspeakers on the border between the two Koreas had confirmed the death of Kim Il Sung and that along the border North Korean flags were flying at half-mast as a sign of mourning. The denials issued by Japanese and American sources were of little use: the world thought that Kim’s grandfather was now dead.

Shortly after the international media announcement, Kim Il Sung appeared alive and well at Pyongyang airport where he greeted a Mongolian delegation visiting the country. The South Korean newspaper Chosun did not publish a correction regarding the false news that had been spread. However, the newspaper did finally apologize for the story last month on the centenary of its founding.

The Uncle and Aunt Who Disappeared

As regards more recent times, it is worth focusing on another mystery worthy of note. Jang Song Thaek was — or, according to some, still is — Kim Jong Un’s uncle. In his political career he has held, among other things, the prestigious position of Vice-Chairman of the National Defence Committee. Experts said he should have led the peaceful transition of power from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un. In other words, after the death of Kim’s father, Song Thaek should have prepared the current North Korean leader’s entry into politics.

In realty things went quite differently because Kim Jong Un came to power immediately after his father’s death in December, 2011. Traces of his uncle were lost in November 2013, when, as Daily Nk writes, he was arrested during a Politburo meeting and relieved of all his posts. He would later be tried for planning a coup and executed in the same year at the age of 67. The international media added a rather macabre detail: according to unspecified sources, Kim allegedly had his relative torn to pieces by dogs. Exaggeration or reality? Almost all experts are inclined to support the first option.

In any case, Jong Song Thaek magically reappeared a few years later in a photo released by a documentary broadcast by North Korean state television.

Could it have been a mistake by those who had edited the documentary or a sign that he intended to rehabilitate Kim’s uncle? But above all: was Kim’s uncle really killed or is he still alive?

There are many doubts because, among other things, Kim Kyong Hui, Song Thaek’s wife and Kim’s aunt, received similar treatment. The sister of Kim Jong Il — father of the current leader — disappeared from the scene in 2013, only to reappear in January 2020. In a photo published by North Korean media, the lady was sitting next to her nephew in a Pyongyang theatre on the occasion of new year celebrations.

The Assassination of Kim’s brother

Kim Jong Nam, Kim Jong Un’s half-brother, was killed with nerve gas on February 13, 2017 at Kuala Lumpur Airport in Malaysia. Thanks to the video surveillance footage, the local authorities discovered his killers, two women, Doan Thi Huong and Siti Aisha.

According to the reconstruction of the investigators the killers of Jong Nam caught up with the man at the airport of the Malaysian capital where they threw a deadly substance in his face. Kim’s half-brother died about ten minutes after the actions of the two women. He reported it to airport authorities, but his death occurred in an ambulance while rescue workers tried to transport the prominent North Korean to the hospital. Pyongyang immediately said that it was not responsible for the incident.

For their part, the two women arrested claimed they did not know what substance they had thrown in Jong Nam’s face and explained that the action was supposed to be a TV prank. In the next few days, other people were arrested, including North Koreans. In 2017, the Wall Street Journal revealed a sensational piece of information: Kim Jong Nam was a CIA source but did not add further details. This story too will probably remain an unsolved mystery.

The ‘Death’ of Kim Jong Un

The latest episode concerns Kim Jong Un who reappeared on May 1 after his absence had triggered rumours that he might have been seriously ill or even in a vegetative state. What happened? The leader disappeared from public view on 11 April. Twenty days later, the North Korean state media gave news of the President on the occasion of Labor Day.

North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) claims that Kim attended a ceremony for the completion of a fertilizer factory near Pyongyang with other senior officials, including his sister Kim Yo Jong. Videos and photos show the President wearing a black suit and constantly smiling, walking around the buildings, applauding and cutting a huge red ribbon with some scissors delivered by his sister Kim Yo Jong. Speculation about his health spread across the world after Kim failed to attend the birthday celebrations of his late grandfather on April 15.
Yet despite his appearance, numerous doubts remain. Some claim that photos and videos circulated by Pyongyang are bogus while others speculate that Kim may be alive and well but that he may have undergone an operation. Like so many other things in North Korea the exact truth remains — for now — a mystery.

L'articolo Unsolved North Korean Mysteries proviene da InsideOver.