Her face once inspired hope in the downtrodden – but as Aung San Suu Kyi’s drawn features appeared on screen, the refugee camp erupted in fury. “Liar! Liar! Shame!” rose up the cries from the squalid, Bangladeshi settlement. Half a world away, the protesters’ compatriots—assembled outside the UN’s highest court in the Hague—echoed the message with vigor. 

Suu Kyi: What Genocide?

Myanmar’s leader won’t have heard them, nor the hundreds of her supporters also on the street. With laser-like focus, the one-time champion of democracy systematically denied charges of genocide against the Rohingya people being brought against her nation in the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ). Myanmar’s bloody suppression of its Muslim minority was an internal security matter, she maintained—but few, it seems, are convinced.   

Background On Myanmar’s Campaign Against The Rohingya

It was, in 2017, the world’s fastest growing refugee crisis. Upwards of 700,000 people forced from their homes amid a military campaign of systemic destruction and murder. Most ended up in neighboring Bangladesh’s engorged and under-resourced refugee camps. It was a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing,” the UN later concluded—one that had occurred on Aung San Suu Kyi’s watch. Horrified by the apparent act of genocide, which is said to be unfolding still, Gambia has brought World Court charges against the southeast Asian state.  

Suu Kyi Defends Myanmar Army’s Actions: Lawful Counter-Terror Operation

Electing to represent her nation in person, Suu Kyi is the first national leader to answer a charge of genocide while the crime is allegedly ongoing. Her defence has been unwavering. Yes, hundreds of villages have been destroyed, and yes, disproportionate force may at times have been used, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate conceded, but Suu Kyi has maintained throughout the proceedings that the army’s operation was a lawful counter-terror operation.

Regarding the allegations of systematic sexual violence and rape as a tactic of war, detailed in three agonizing hours of witness testimony, Suu Kyi remained silent. Instead, she used her time to attack the ICJ’s supposed overreach, assailing its judges for meddling in what she claimed is an internal security affair.

Reaction To Suu Kyi’s Defense Against The Charges

Suu Kyi’s spirited defense of the military was well received back home; but for the opposing side, it’s a desperate race against time. Gambia’s legal team are not at this stage seeking official recognition of the genocide, but rather the imposition of “provisional measures” to protect Myanmar’s remaining Rohingya community.

Roughly half a million Rohingya individuals still reside in the country’s westerly Rakhine State. Where once their ancestral villages stood, the court heard that new security bases and government offices have been built. It is a cynical effort to destroy evidence of mass murder, said the Gambian lawyers, who worry the military’s genocidal intentions may actually have strengthened in recent months.   

Suu Kyi disputes this charge, claiming that Myanmar’s generals remain firmly under her control. Her government “actively investigates, prosecutes and punishes soldiers and officers that are accused of wrongdoing,” she told the court, pointing to the conviction of seven servicemen in 2017. The group had massacred ten Rohingya villagers, a crime exposed by two Reuters reporters. For their reporting of the killing, the journalists languished in jail for more than 16 months, significantly longer than the murderous soldiers, who were released only one year into their 10-year sentences. The affair is indicative of Myanmar’s inability to self-police, critics argue.      

“Aung San Suu Kyi says Myanmar is investigating its own crimes… Once atrocities are systematically committed as policy, you lose the credibility to investigate them yourself,” said Mark Kersten of the Wayamo Foundation, an international justice group. “We’d never accept the Nazis investigating the Holocaust, or Milosevic’s Serbs investigating Srebrenica.”

Proving Genocide And Holding Myanmar Responsible

In the cases of the Holocaust and other horrors, genocide’s high benchmark—acting with the “intent to destroy in whole or in part” a community—was proven. With the weight of evidence at their disposal, Gambia’s legal team will be hopeful of a similar verdict against Myanmar. But even if Myanmar is eventually found guilty, the ICJ has no way of enforcing its decisions. Neither the country’s civilian leader nor its military commanders would necessarily be arrested or put on trial.

Foreign sanctions would, however, be a likely consequence—as would severe reputational damage. However, for those suffering in ramshackle Bangladeshi camps or encircled Rakhine homesteads, that means very little. Myanmar’s much-feted leader must be made to call off the dogs, critics say. But whether she will—or even can—is far from clear.  

L'articolo Aung San Suu Kyi Denies Myanmar’s Alleged Rohingya Genocide proviene da InsideOver.

It has been eighteen months since Abiy Ahmed, 43, was inaugurated as Prime Minister of Ethiopia and now a subtle rebellion spearheaded by a 33-year-old naturalized American citizen activist is threatening to upend his government.

In just two days during October, 67 people were killed when Abiy’s supporters and those of Jawar Mohammed crashed after the latter claimed police had surrounded his home and tried to withdraw his government security detail. The violence underscored the dilemma facing Abiy, the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner, who must retain support in Ethiopia’s ethnically, based federal system but not be seen to favour one group.

“The majority of people believe the transition is off track and we are backsliding towards an authoritarian system,” the Reuters News agency reported Jawar saying this October in his heavily guarded home-office in the center of the capital, Addis Ababa.

“The ruling party and its ideology will be challenged seriously not only in the election but also prior to the elections,” he said.

Soon after the clashes, Abiy who is also facing challenges from within the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) – which has uninterruptedly held the helm since 1987- who feel disempowered from new, ethnically-based parties eager to flex their muscles in elections scheduled for May 2020, explicitly warned media owners against “fomenting unrest.”

“Those media owners who don’t have Ethiopian passports are playing both ways,” he said. “We tried to be patient. But if this is going to undermine the peace and existence of Ethiopia […] we will take measures. You can’t play both ways.”

Ethiopian watchers noted that before Jawar returned to his home country this August 5, 2018 after 10 years hiatus, he ran the Oromia Media Network (OMN) from a studio in Minnesota which is credited with organizing street protests. Last year these protests catapulted his once close political confidant to power in April of the same year, after forcing Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn’s resignation on 15 February, 2018.

Ironically, Abiy is the country’s first Oromo prime minister and Jawar, a kingmaker of sorts and an Oromo himself is flexing his muscles after warming his way into the country’s political ecosystem with a caustic form of etho-nationalism uniting around his Oromo ethnic group. Now it is weighing a possibility of throwing the gauntlet, seeking tenancy in the Menelik Palace in crucial elections scheduled for May 2020.

His supporters have stopped believing in Abiy’s promises of reform, he has said, accusing Abiy of centralizing power, silencing dissent, and jailing political prisoners – like his predecessors.

But Abby is determined to hold the elections despite the toxic climate in the country.

“Abiy’s reputation as a reformer will face a serious test in getting the country ready in time for the 2020 elections. The appointment of Birtukan Mideksa, a former opposition party leader, to head the country’s election board demonstrates Abiy’s recognition of the symbolic and political importance of the 2020 polls. The government has also appointed a new, professional electoral board, after consultations with opposition parties,” says Terrence Lyons, associate professor at the school for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University and the author of “The Puzzle of Ethiopian Politics.”

Ominously though, a census scheduled for this year, which was due before the elections, has been indefinably put on hold dampening the mood of elections happening any time soon.

Ethiopia has an estimated 110 million people or 1.43% of the total world population, according to the United Nations estimates and is the continent’s second-biggest populated nation after Nigeria.

According to Dr. Yohannes Gedamu, a lecturer of Political Science at Georgia Gwinnett College in Lawrenceville, GA, U.S., “Ethiopia has more than 80 ethnic groups. Despite recent improvements, it also has a weak economy and an overwhelmingly poor citizenry. If Abiy wants to make a genuine attempt at real democracy he must do away with tribal politics and make stronger strides towards national unity. “

What is telling is that the Oromo are the single largest ethno-national group in northeast Africa. In Ethiopia alone, they are estimated to be 50 million strong, representing 34.4% of the country’s entire population.

With the  EPRDF  which is cobbled up mostly with ethno-regional political parties being dominated by Tigray people, who make up 6% of the population but control the political economy of Ethiopia with the help of the West, particularly the US.

This relationship is strategic to the US who use the Tigrayan-led government’s army as their proxy to fight terrorism in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

Being the largest ethno-national group in the country, the Oromo have been made to feel marginalized, having been denied equal access to their country’s political, economic and cultural resources.

Also, with the loosening of political freedoms, many regional powerbrokers are demanding more influence and resources, fueling ethnically-tinged conflicts around the country.

In June, for example, a rogue state militia leader killed the state president of the Amhara region and other top-level officials in what the government described as a regional coup attempt.

According to David Williamson, a Senior Ethiopia Analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), a global think tank, Ethiopia has serious political problems.

He states: “They stem from unresolved questions about the structure and nature of the state and how to share power between Ethiopia’s various communities. There is now a clear objective to democratize, but it may be a tortuous journey to get there.”

Soon after Abiy’s accession Jawar brazenly claimed – to the dismay of many Ethiopians – that the country effectively now had two governments: one led by Abiy, the other by the Qeerroo, an Oromo term meaning “bachelor”.

Understandably the Qeerroo are supporters of this former political fugitive whose media organization, until recently was labelled a terrorist organization by the ERDF.

With 73,000 followers on Twitter and more than 1.4m on Facebook following him, it’s easy for him to mobilize demonstrators in this landlocked nation of 110 million, the most populous in Africa after Nigeria.

After the fatal clashes, this October the Ethiopian premier warned that increased instability in the country would escalate if the citizens failed to unite for a common purpose.

“We will unswervingly work to ensure the prevalence of the rule of law and to bring perpetrators to justice…There has been an attempt to turn the crisis into a religious and ethnic one. In the process our comrades have become victims in terrible circumstances,” he said in a statement issued by his office.

Furthermore, within Africa’s oldest nation-state was an attempted coup that took place this June, an incident where five government officials including the army chief of staff and the president of the northern Amhara region were assassinated.

Also, last year in June during a rally held in Addis Ababa, the capital, attended to by the prime minister, a grenade attack occurred, reportedly killing one person, wounding 253 others and critically injuring 10, according to Amir Aman the country’s Health Minister.

After the explosion, the prime minister said in a grim address to the nation that this was a “well-orchestrated attack.”

“The casualties are martyrs of love, unity and peace,” he said, urging Ethiopians not to be discouraged and to work toward reforming the country.

Should next year’s elections be free and fair  – as Abiy has promised they will be – they will prove whether the young prime minister can hold together his fractious nation or whether decades of state repression have numbed any sense of participatory democracy.

L'articolo Ethnic Clashes and Political Fears: Abiy Ahmed’s Dilemma in Ethiopia proviene da InsideOver.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced on 11 October in Oslo the award of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize to Abiy Ahmed Ali, Prime Minister of Ethiopia. 43-year-old Abiy was honoured for his efforts to “achieve peace and international cooperation”, in particular the ending of the 20-year conflict between his country and neighbouring Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea, long-time enemies involved in the 1998-2000 border war, restored their relations in July 2018 after years of hostility.

L'articolo Who Is Abiy Ahmed proviene da InsideOver.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance is not the slogan or the appellation given to the policy of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, awarded in spite of the predictions last week of the Nobel Peace Prize, but is the name of one of the projects most controversial and, at the same time, crucial of the whole geopolitical panorama of Africa. It is, in fact, the dam on the Nile, known with the acronym of GERD, whose realization the government of Addis Ababa has commissioned in 2011 to the Italian company salini impregilo, which should represent a real turning point for the whole economy of Ethiopia and its role in the Horn of Africa. However, it is at the centre of long-standing disputes with Egypt which, in the area, plays the part of dominant power.

The project area is located about 500 km northwest of the capital Addis Ababa, in the region of Benishangul–Gumaz along the Blue Nile. At the end of the works, as the website of the construction company says, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be the largest dam of Africa: 1800m long, 155m high and the total volume of 10.4 million cubic meters. The initial cost of the artwork, borne by the Ethiopian Electric Power customer, is estimated at 3.4 million euro.

The project is in its final phase, with the entry into production planned for 2020 and full operation for 2022; with the construction of the dam, capable of producing a power of 6,000 megawatts, Ethiopia would become the largest exporter of electricity of the African continent as a whole, and the government relies on high revenues to develop the rail network and, above all, to achieve a large number of new industrial areas.

The dispute with Egypt

But Egypt fears strongly that the dam will reduce the flow of water received from the River Nile, which provides real vital sap to three countries, starting from the springs on the highlands of Ethiopia, crossing the deserts of Sudan and then reaching the cultivated fields and the reservoirs of the Pyramids Country. Egypt depends 90% of its fresh water on the Nile and expects the water received from the GERD basin to be 40 billion cubic meters, while Ethiopia guarantees the continuation of 35.

“Egypt is dependent on the Nile for its water supply – has explained us in exclusive William Davison, Senior Analyst for Ethiopia of the International Crisis Group – and worries GERD will reduce it, but it is relying on outdated treaties that upstream countries like Ethiopia were not party to. Ethiopia claims the right to use its water resources and doesn’t acknowledge the legitimacy of treaties it did not sign. It sees GERD as a vital project that marks a new era of Nile politics and that can significantly boost domestic and regional power supply and water storage”.

Regarding a possible resolution of the dispute, Davison brings his own and the International Crisis Group’s position: “The solution is, for the two nations and all Nile countries, to sign the Cooperative Framework Agreement and institutionalise cooperation, so they share information on rainfall, river flows, reservoir levels, and planned projects. This will allow them to design mutually beneficial development strategies and synchronise operations of their hydropower dams and other schemes.”

The internal political situation

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali took over the government of Ethiopia on 2 April 2018, after two years of fighting with hundreds of dead and a political stalemate that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Haile Mariam Desalegn, sign of the weakening of the Tigrayan ethnic group, ruling class in the country until that moment. Eighteen months after the installation of Abiy, the situation in Ethiopia is still far from being stable or, at least, under control, as William Davison explains: “The political situation is difficult. Liberalisation promises meaningful lasting change, but it has opened the political sphere to many different actors, some of whom have fundamental disagreements, such as over the ethnic-based federal system. While some political groups such as the Sidama and Oromo highly value the ethnic-regional autonomy it offers, others think the system is driving Ethiopian apart from each other and creating conflict. There are also many grievances, such as those from the Amhara, who believe they have been the victims under the federal system, even though others perceive the Amhara as a formerly privileged power. The resulting rise in Amhara nationalism led to extreme high-level political violence in June and there are considerable tensions between Amhara and Tigray, nominally over Tigrayan territory that’s claimed by some Amhara factions”.

Peace with Eritrea

One year after the peace treaties signed with Eritrea, for which Abiy Ahmed received the prestigious prize, awarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, we tried to draw a balance with the analyst Davison. The clamour and optimism for the reopening of borders and the resumption of bilateral relations, in fact, was followed by a new closure of borders: “The situation is still positive – he explains -, but progress is slow and there are major obstacles. The ruling party of Tigray is a crucial actor and its full cooperation is needed to fully normalise relations and settled border issues with Eritrea, but its relations with the rest of the ruling coalition and the federal authorities in Ethiopia are very bad. There is also a question mark over whether President Isaias is keen to quickly move to full normalisation with Ethiopia, as then there will no longer be a justification for suspending the Eritrean constitution, which means his rule will face challengers that it does not under the current situation”.

The Nobel Prize and the possible negative impact

As soon as we heard the news of the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, we contacted Norwegian Kjetil Tronvoll, Professor of Conflict and Peace Studies at Bjąrknes University College and Director of Oslo Analytica, one of the world’s leading experts on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa in general: “The prize legitimizes the efforts of Abiy, but I don’t think it will necessarily give impetus to the peace process” he told us. A process that, after the trumpets and handshakes of 9 July 2018, with the opening of the borders between Ethiopia and Eritrea two months later, ran aground. The borders have been closed again, to put a stop to the impressive flow of refugees who are pushing to flee the Isaias regime. It is not by chance that the Nobel Prize was awarded only to one of the two contenders in the conflict, Abiy precisely, without Isaias even being mentioned in the Norwegian Committee’s explanatory statement: “For his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea”.

“To move forward with the peace process– explains Tronvoll– both sides need to work in the same direction”, which is not happening right now.

The question also involves the peculiar constitutional order of Ethiopia, with the strong federalism to which we have already referred, for which “Eritrea– explains the Norwegian professor– is not in conflict with Ethiopia, but with the Tigay region”, involved in territorial disputes with Asmara. Abiy has no interest in antagonizing the Tigray Liberation Front (TPLF) and, furthermore, has also had to face an attempted coup in the state of Amhara, another warm area, with Sidama that will vote a referendum for autonomy on 13 November. From this situation, is clear the phrase that William Davison told us: “Before thinking about foreign policy and the idea of reaching an important role in the Horn of Africa, Abiy’s goal should be to internally stabilise Ethiopia. Unify the country, before looking out”.

The Nobel Prize awarded to Abiy, as Professor Tornvoll clearly explains, may even harm the peace process and the internal situation of Eritrea: “Isaias might be insulted since he was not awarded too. Hence, he may become more negative towards Abiy, as he may perceive Abiy has stolen his glory too. Furthermore, the prize gives legitimacy to those who want democratic reforms and change in Eritrea too; hence Isaias has to rule even harder to crack down upon anyone who may use the prize against his policy and arguing for change”. In short, peace is still far away, even if the Nobel Prize has already arrived.

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