On Wednesday, November 11, Moscow published a draft agreement to establish a logistics hub for its navy in the African nation of Sudan.

The agreement, which was signed by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin a week earlier on November 6, envisions the hosting of up to 300 Russian troops and four warships at a time, including those equipped with nuclear capability.

The location coordinates of the navy hub, as per the agreement, suggest that it will be located in the city of Port Sudan, which sits more or less equidistant from Egypt, Eritrea and — across the Red Sea — Saudi Arabia.

Russia will also be able to import and export weapons and supplies for the warships with no payment of a duty or tax and no scrutiny from the country’s authorities.

A Project Dating From al-Bashir’s Time

Schemes for such a project are not recent. Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for three decades until he was overthrown following a coup d’état in 2019, had already made it public in 2017 that he and his Russian counterpart — and key ally — President Vladimir Putin were discussing the prospects of establishing a naval base on the coast of Sudan.

In December of that same year, Russia also signed an agreement with Sudan on developing a nuclear plant in African country. During that time, al-Bashir was still wanted by the International Criminal Court for the Darfur genocide.

Pressed by the West — and, most notably, by the United States — al-Bashir pushed to build stronger ties with Moscow. In his 2017 meeting with Putin, he even offered to construct an airbase for Russia near the Red Sea coast and to re-equip the Sudanese Army with Russian weapons, including SU-30 fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles.

Russia’s Presence in Africa

Russia stands out in Africa as a major supplier of weapons, as it accounts for almost half of the continent’s arms imports. Between 2015 and 2019, 49% of military equipment imported to the continent were from Russia, whereas US arms exports only accounted for 14% and China’s for 13%.

Currently, the Sudanese Army is said to be 60% equipped with Russian — or Soviet — military hardware. Sudan is Russia’s third biggest arms importer in Africa, standing behind Algeria (first) and Egypt.

Russia is also reportedly building military bases in six African countries. According to Bild, a German newspaper, those six countries Central African Republic, Egypt, Eritrea, Madagascar and, besides Sudan, Mozambique.

Bordering Sudan in the south, Eritrea is also expecting a similar agreement to build a logistics base for the Russia navy on its coast, which stands closer to Yemen and the Horn of Africa, whereas Egypt had already signed a deal allowing Russian warplanes to use Egyptian military bases.

With or Without al-Bashir

Although Putin supported al-Bashir throughout the period of protests, he nonetheless recognized the interim Military Transitional Council (MTC) immediately after al-Bashir was ousted in April 2019.

The transitional leaders were then feared to pose a bigger challenge for Moscow, as the interim government seemed friendlier to Riyadh and Washington, in contrast to al-Bashir.

Yet the long-awaited naval deal came even shortly after Sudan was urged to normalize its ties with Israel, one of Washington’s major allies in the region, in order to be removed from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list.

Taking part in a UN anti-piracy effort, the Russian navy is temporarily based in Djibouti, which hosts permanent military bases of major world powers, including the United States and China. But after Djibouti rejected Russia’s request to make the Russian navy’s presence permanent in 2016, Moscow soon approached Khartoum.

Moreover, Russia has also invested significantly in the energy and mineral industries in Sudan, as well as in other African countries. Thus, having its own port in the Red Sea could prove highly profitable.

L'articolo Russia Finds a New Regional Stronghold in Sudan proviene da InsideOver.

The German Navy is in the process of obtaining five new warships. However, the purchase, despite Germany’s latest aspirations, is not intended to initiate a paradigm shift within the Bundeswehr but is instead about German efficiency – unfortunately.

The Currently Subpar Status of Germany’s Military

Germany’s armed forces are currently in a sorry state. Foreign missions that would require combat operations are out of the question. The troops’ reputation in their own country is practically non-existent, and allies know that German soldiers can, at best, be utilized for basic and routine services abroad.

For the first time last year, the country’s leaders opened a serious discussion making the Bundeswehr fit to face the new challenges in the world, but the majority of the population still does not support the idea, and thus the grand coalition remains divided over the force’s future.

Why the Purchase? Buying New Warships is Cheaper Than Repairing the Old Ones

Accordingly, the new warships are not intended to start a larger German present, but because the acquisition costs of 2.8 billion are cheaper than having ailing ships repeatedly repaired.

The Ministry of Defense has already approved a corresponding motion by Christian Democratic Union (CDU) MP Ingo Gädechens. According to this, further action on the file was currently being coordinated by the ministry.

The Bundeswehr currently possesses five K130 corvettes, which they purchased in 2008 to replace 15 speedboats. The 89-meter-long warships are suitable for use near the coast, such as in the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean. They are currently involved in the UN mission outside Lebanon.

The Navy Steps up to the Plate

Defense politicians in Germany have declared their goal to strengthen the Bundeswehr again after decades of saving. Of the Bundeswehr’s armed forces, the Navy has best managed to comply with this declared will.

At the end of 2016, the advance for five additional K130s arrived. They were appointed in 2017, shortly before the general election. The argument: the Bundeswehr has too few ships to increase the number of foreign deployments and Russia’s growing threat. Another argument at the time was that the second batch of five corvettes could be built faster than larger frigates of the multi-purpose combat ship MKS 180.

Four years later, this is no longer unreservedly true. The old corvettes suffer from “obsolescence”; in other words: their technology is out of date. From 2025, they would have to be overhauled. Even the Federal Audit Office has recommended to the Ministry of Defense several times over the past few years to plan new acquisitions at an early stage instead of continuing to operate old weapon systems for decades.

What is certain is that the old corvettes no longer meet the requirements of international missions, so from 2025, they will probably have to go to the shipyard for weeks or even months to modernize. They would not be available for use for so long.

With the second batch order in 2017, the Bundestag also decided that the Bundeswehr should have ten operational corvettes. If a structurally identical third batch of five corvettes were ordered during this legislative period, the Bundeswehr would always have ten corvettes.

In addition: The repair of the old corvettes would not extend the 30-year service life, because of the wear and tear of the ship’s hull, according to the ministry letter. In 2038, the Bundeswehr would need to replace then. The ships of the third lot to be ordered now, which would be delivered from 2025, could, on the other hand, be used until 2055. The opportunity to order new ships is also favorable because the government has promised the armaments industry with the 130-billion-euro economic stimulus package to promptly give them orders.

The Bundeswehr’s Future

Hence, the desperately needed paradigm shift in Germany’s Bundeswehr to address new and existing geopolitical threats and to address German aspirations in the Indo-Pacific has yet to be initiated. With German financial efficiency alone, Berlin will remain without an influential voice outside of the European Union.

L'articolo Germany’s Navy to Add New Warships – for Financial Purposes proviene da InsideOver.

In the ongoing conflict between Washington and Beijing, another element has now been added which is likely to exacerbate the situation further.

China Launches Missiles into South China Sea

On Wednesday, an incident occurred in the South China Sea, when China launched two medium-range missiles into the highly contested sea area. According to Beijing, the military’s demonstration of strength occurred after China previously rated an incident with an American spy plane as a “provocation.”

The missiles were fired from Qinghai and Zhejiang provinces on Wednesday and landed in a sea area that is currently closed for Chinese military exercises from Monday to Saturday, a source close to the Chinese military reported to the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post. There was talk of a “warning to the USA.”

It was a nuclear-armed medium-range missile of the type DF-26B with a range of 4,000 kilometers and an advanced anti-ship missile DF-21D with a range of 1,800 kilometers, the source reported to the paper which appears to possess high-level contacts.

According to the information provided, both rockets landed in an area southeast of the Chinese island of Hainan and the Paracel Islands.

China’s Complaint of ‘Severe Provocation’ from American Military

The missile launches followed China’s complaints that an American spy plane had entered a no-fly zone for Chinese armed forces’ target practice. In Beijing, a foreign office spokesman complained that the US U2 plane had “seriously disrupted” the maneuvers, resulting in a “severe provocation”.

According to Beijing, the flight at high altitude violated the US-China code of conduct and international practice, and Washington’s behavior could easily lead to misunderstandings and misjudgments — and even trigger accidents on land or at sea. The US should “cease such provocative actions immediately,” a spokesman for the Chinese government stated.

China’s Claims on the South China Sea

China continues to make territorial claims over large parts of the South China Sea through which essential shipping routes pass, and many raw materials can be found. The Hague International Court of Arbitration rejected the territorial claims in 2016. However, China ignored the ruling. The US government has also formally rejected the Chinese claims since mid-July. The sea area lies between China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

The incident occurred in the People’s Liberation Army’s northern command area, which borders Russia, North Korea, and Mongolia. Here, China is currently conducting maneuvers in both the Northeast and the South China Sea, with American naval vessels often appearing to demonstrate navigation freedom on the world’s oceans and thus to deter further Chinese aggression in the area.

US Issues Further Restrictions on Chinese Companies and Visas

The incident occurs on par with the latest sanctions from Washington. Only on Wednesday, the US government issued visa and export restrictions against several Chinese state-owned companies involved in projects in the marine area in the territorial dispute. These include subsidiaries of the construction company China Communications Construction Company, according to communications from the State Department and the Department of Commerce in Washington.

China has created artificial islands on several reefs in the South China Sea and built military facilities, which is severely criticized internationally. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that since 2013 the Communist Party has been utilizing state-owned companies to advance its territorial claims, and thereby “destabilizing” the region, “trampling the sovereign rights of its neighbors and causing immeasurable environmental damage.”

China’s aggressive conduct occurs despite other neighbors such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan also making claims to an individual or multiple islands in the South China Sea.

The American presence and the sanctions are thus not only warranted but needed, particularly in regard to the Taiwanese situation.

Moreover, with President Donald Trump’s election campaign heating up, the tensions between China and the US are more likely to escalate further in the coming weeks and months than to pacify.

L'articolo Beijing Fires Missiles into South China Sea proviene da InsideOver.

The German warship FGS Hamburg is en route to join the EU-led Mission Irini. As the German Navy announced, the warship left the port of Wilhelmshaven on August 4 to join the task force. The deployed forces of Operation Irini, form a coalition with primary mission to monitor any illicit movements related to the Libyan civil war and implement the UN arms embargo in the North African country.

Putting the latest developments in a wider context, one must admit that Berlin is clearly trying to showcase that the German role is critical not only in the field of diplomacy but also in the developments on the ground — or in this case in the developments at sea.

FGS Hamburg and the Operational Upgrade of the Mission

FGS Hamburg is a Type 124 Class Guided Missile Frigate (FFG). With a displacement of 5800 tons, FGS Hamburg comes as a considerable addition to the HS Spetsai frigate of the Hellenic Navy and the ITS San Giorgio of the Italian Navy, which are already deployed in the area. The armament of the ship consists of a Mark 41 Vertical Launching System with RIM-66 Standard medium-range surface-to-air Missiles and RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles. Four secondary missile launching systems (Mark 141 and Mark 49) can be also found in the frigate, while OTO Melara 76 mm and Rheinmetall MLG 27 mm machine guns are included in the main weapon systems of the ship. Thales and Atlas Electronic L-long rage and surface radar systems are also used by the FGS Hamburg and will provide an additional benefit to the monitoring power and capabilities of the deployed assets. Finally, 2 Naval Helicopters Westland Sea Lynx Mk.88 will be stationed on the ship for the duration of the deployment.

Apparently the addition of FGS Hamburg to the mission contributes drastically to the operational capabilities of the task force but at the same time Berlin is making a political statement, over-stressing its re-emerging role in the new status quo of the troubled Mediterranean region.

Berlin Looks into Boosting its Role in the Mediterranean

FGS Hamburg will be part of the Operation Irini for five months, with 250 navy personnel being reportedly onboard. Prior to the deployment of FGS Hamburg, Germany has been contributing to the mission with only one P-3C Orion aircraft. The decision for the deployment of the German Navy frigate comes at a moment when Berlin is trying to boost its role in the Mediterranean in several fronts.

Since early 2020, Germany has been playing a pivotal role in the developments of the Libyan conflict During the Berlin Conference, held on January 19, 2020, Chancellor Angela Merkel has hosted a meeting where all the major regional players participated. The ultimate objective of the conference has been to assist the opposing sides coming to an agreement and setting the context for the steps forward, in order peace to be established and the state-building process to start promptly. The conference has addressed the key regional and international factors that have been fueling the crisis, but at the same it highlighted the significance of the German element in international politics.

Berlin as a Gatekeeper of Regional Balance

Following the recent escalation between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean Sea in late July, Berlin has once again emerged as a mediator and a gatekeeper of the regional balance. Germany not only intervened in the aftermath of the provocative Turkish NAVTEX but — as the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu divulged — Berlin has also organized an undisclosed trilateral meeting at some point before mid-July, among Greece, Turkey and Germany.

Last week, Germany took further steps to stress its role in the Libyan de-escalation process. Following the resignation of the UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame, discussions have been taking place for the successor of the Lebanese academic and the very structure of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). The US has reportedly tried to promote a specific candidate to overtake Salame’s role, but Germany responded via Dr. Christoph Heusgen, Germany’s Permanent Representative in the UN. Dr. Heusgen stressed that the UN Secretary-General should nominate the candidate without any US interference.

German Controversies Caused by Berlin’s Previous Actions

The tension in the Libyan front and in the Eastern Mediterranean also coincide with a critical moment in German politics. Since July 1 and until the end of the year, Germany holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Merkel’s close ally, Ursula von der Leyen is currently serving as the President of the European Commission, while Merkel herself is gradually moving to the end of her term without any intention to run for another one in 2021, as per her own statements. In this particular timing, both German institutions and Merkel would like to emphasize the stabilizing role of their country in a regional and international context.

On the other hand, besides the mediation efforts and military support that Berlin has been pursuing in order to secure stability in MENA and the Levant, controversy has been raised with regards to the arms deals that Germany has approved since the start of the year. According to data available from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), Berlin has proceeded forward on arm deals with some of the major foreign actors involved in the Libyan crisis, of a total value of approximately €331 million, specifically €308.2 million with Egypt, €15.1 million with Turkey and €7.7 million with the UAE, respectively. Such a move amid the escalation in the Libyan civil war and knowing the role that the aforementioned countries in the conflict hold has prompted several prominent accusations of misconduct and hypocrisy against Germany.

L'articolo German Navy Boosts Mediterranean Presence with Increased Commitment to Operation Irini proviene da InsideOver.

The United States has shifted its position in the South China Sea. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that “the world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire …America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law. We stand with the international community in defense of freedom of the seas and respect for sovereignty and reject any push to impose ‘might makes right’ in the South China Sea or the wider region.”

The Importance of America’s Actions

This means that while the US officially remains neutral, they have sided with other claimants like Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam against China. This decision comes with numerous implications including the status of Chinese artificial islands, the importance of Freedom of Navigation patrols and the consequences and dangers of an aggressive Chinese foreign policy.  In particularly, it suggests that instead of need for more caution in response to Chinese aggression, there is a block forming against them.

One of the most frequent points of contention in the region involves the artificially built islands and contested claims in the South China Sea. The region has considerable oil and natural gas reserves and includes traditional fishing regions of the population. As a result, the region includes frequent clashes between fisherman and China’s militarized coast guard. China regularly sends oil exploration vessels with armed escorts in what should be the exclusive economic zones of neighboring countries.

Island Power

An artificial island brings with it territorial claims extending 12 nautical miles and, at least according to the creator of the island, an exclusive economic zone. On top of territorial claims to economic resources these islands could be used as launching pads or key defenses in a potential war. These artificial islands include advanced radar systems, anti-air batteries, shipping docks that can handle blue-water ships, submarine bases and large runways that can support their advanced fighters (which are being built using stolen technology from the F-22 and F-35.) Keep in mind they are doing this in the Spratlys and other islands in the South China Sea that are vigorously disputed. (It’s true that other nations have done so as well, but not to the extent that China has and definitely not with the same degree of militarization.)

Because these islands are proclaimed as Chinese territory, Freedom of Navigation patrols are incredibly important. These are legal maneuvers taken in international waters instead of the 12 nautical miles included in the territorial limit. When the U.S. performs a Freedom of Seas operation, they send an important signal of strength and peace. Because the islands are disputed, the US performs these operations to reaffirm the importance of international law. These prevent the de facto recognition of this territory as China’s. Thus, the statement from the United States in some ways is simply an affirmation of what the Freedom of Navigation Patrols already indicate.

The Inchoate Anti-China Coalition

But it is different in more important ways. It combines with other recent events to suggest a new block is forming against China. Presumably, the United States is willing to tolerate and maybe even forgive non-Chinese artificial islands in the region. The statement from Pompeo is a direct repudiation of aggressive Chinese action. This makes foreign policy analysts wring their hands that this will increase tension with China (as though the fisherman of the neighbors don’t already face harassment from the militarized Chinese coast guard), but ignores the long term trends that favor America and its allies.

Analysts say that militant Chinese aggression with India, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Australia have driven otherwise friendly or neutral countries straight into America’s arms. While they are smaller Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam have shown an indication to work with each other and the United States. Australia has so much tension with China that they are increasing their defense spending. They are focusing on longer range anti ship and new hyper sonic missiles. Both of which directly relate to China’s increasing reliance on blue water naval warships and missile systems. Vietnam has hosted American aircraft carriers several times, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt just a few months ago (in between its crew battling the coronavirus.)  While their militaries are still dwarfed by China, there is a growing sense among them that they will individually collapse if they don’t collectively resist and like Vietnam, they have been growing closer to the US.

The result that is most important regards China’s aggression. Many people worry that China will bully its way into getting what it wants, build up island after island until they present the world with Chinese control of the area. But the US newly sided with China’s opponents, the Freedom Navigation operations, and the consolidating block suggests that China has created a wall of opponents around them that will constrain their aggression and adventurism.

L'articolo Sea Change in the South China Sea proviene da InsideOver.

It was a demonstration of power: two US aircraft carriers conducted an exercise within sight of Chinese warships in the South China Sea on Monday, July 6.

US Naval Show of Force

The conflict between Washington and Beijing in the South China Sea continuous to intensify. Despite China’s warnings, the United States sent the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Nimitz to participate in one of the most extensive naval exercises in recent years — into one of the most severely contested areas on the globe.

The exercises conducted by the US come after the Defense Department recently expressed concern about a multi-day military exercise by China near the Paracel Islands. According to Rear Admiral George Wikoff, the United States seeks to “send our partners and allies an unmistakable signal that we feel committed to regional security and stability.”

China Condemns American Actions

China has condemned the deployment of the carriers. Deputy Director of Foreign Affairs Zhao Lijian spoke of a “demonstration of power with ulterior motives.” According to Lijian, the exercises were a provocation by the United States and undermined peace and stability in the area. The move also promoted the militarization of the South China Sea, Zhao stated. On the other hand, China’s exercises around the Paracel Islands were not objectionable as the archipelago belonged to China. Although Vietnam and Taiwan also claim the islands, Zhao argued that a dispute did not exist. Washington’s criticism of Beijing’s actions “completely ignores the facts.”

An increased destabilization and militarization in the region have indeed been witnessed over the last years. However, contrary to China’s point of view, Beijing is the culprit due to its aggressive conduct and preposterous territorial claims.

Why is the South China Sea Important?

The South China Sea lies between China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Territorial disputes between the neighbors have existed for decades. The islands in question are a collection of mostly tiny reefs, sandbars, and atolls and are located around 330 kilometers southeast of the Chinese island of Hainan. The Spratly Islands extend even further south over a distance of approximately 1,000 kilometers and are significantly closer to the coasts of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia than to China.

As established by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, a state can claim territory from its belt of coastal waters extending at most 12 nautical miles (22 km). China’s claims are hence not only man-made but in violation of international law.

China’s Claims on Islands in the South China Sea

Nonetheless, China has been claiming the islands, since 1947, and despite a judgment by the Permanent Arbitration Court in The Hague that rejected China’s claims in 2016 – a decision Beijing utterly disregards.

Instead, Beijing claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, which remains one of the most relevant international shipping routes, with $3.37 trillion worth of trade passing through every year – amounting to almost one-third of all global maritime trade. Moreover, vast amounts of raw materials such as oil and gas are suspected below the surface. Specifically, the US estimates deposits totaling 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

China Starts Building Man-Made Islands

In 2014, China started to add landmass to the island and subsequently began building military fortifications on them. That build-up occurred despite President Xi Jinping’s pledge to President Barack Obama in 2015 that the islands would not be militarized. Despite the broken pledge and China’s rather apparent interests in the region, Beijing speaks of “peaceful” intentions.

The exercises occur at a time of heightened tensions between the United States and China, primarily due to the corona pandemic and allegations the White House has expressed towards Beijing. Besides the pandemic, persistent trade issues and Beijing’s dealings with Hong Kong continue to escalate. Given that President Donald Trump has played the China card as part of his reelection efforts, these conflicts are unlikely to be alleviated any time soon.

With increased Chinese presence, the US seeks to and must counterbalance Bejing’s hegemonic aspirations. The exercise now is hence not only a display of force and yes, superiority but also a signal to China. A signal that the United States is neither inclined to accept nor willing to succumb to China’s aggression in the region. It is an indispensable message as the US remains the last line of defense between Bejing and its agenda: mastery of East Asia and beyond.

L'articolo America in the South China Sea proviene da InsideOver.

The US made news recently by sending the Arleigh Burke Class Destroyer, the USS Russell, through the Taiwan Straits. The destroyer went through the strait right around the 31st anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Massacre; for its part, China called the action a needless provocation. Yet despite the controversy, maneuvers such as this remain an important tool in America and the world’s arsenal for preserving peace and needs to be examined.

The Key Importance of the Taiwan Strait

The Taiwan Strait, as the name implies, runs between Taiwan and mainland China. It also brings up a host of issues regarding Taiwan relations with mainland China. When their civil war ended in 1949 the losers under Chiang Kai-Shek fled to Taiwan and established what they called the Republic of China (R.O.C.). This would be like the American Civil War ending and South Carolina remaining its own country called the Republic of America. The mainland Chinese government feels like Taiwan was always a part of China and will be again. In pursuit of these goals they have prepared several times to invade Taiwan. But in 1954 and 1958 they were dissuaded by the threats of nuclear force from America, and the sailing of a carrier group through the Taiwan Strait. To the mainland Chinese then, the sailing of the Russell recalls earlier interference from the US. Beijing sees this as outside involvement in an internal conflict with a breakaway province.

Criticism of the US Presence in the Strait

Critics of this policy point to the above example and Chinese protests of this “provocative” action as a needless escalation with China when there is already a great deal of simmering tension in the region. But Freedom of Navigation patrols has the best chance of supporting peace! China has a long history of simmering tension and provocative actions with its neighbors in almost every direction. Right now, they have a simmering border dispute with India with whom they fought a war in 1962.

China thumbed its nose at the world court ruling regarding against the Scarborough shoal in the Spratly Islands.  As a response they’ve placed even more weapons systems and missiles on the island even though it was ruled as part of the Philippine’s exclusive economic zone.

Immediately after losing the court case they used their new advanced weapons systems in the East China Sea. Near the disputed Senkaku islands they practiced locating and sinking a ship as an obvious message to Japan, which approved of the ruling. Japan has had to launch their fighter planes almost 1000 times in 2019 in response to mostly Chinese provocation. Japanese fisherman, operating legally in international waters or in their exclusive economic zone, has been harassed by Chinese naval vessels.

China’s Illegal and Aggressive Actions

China has illegally built up islands and placed advanced radar systems, anti-air batteries, shipping docks that can handle blue water ships, submarine bases, and large runways that can support their advanced fighters (which are being built using stolen technology from the F 22 and F 35.)  Keep in mind they are doing this in the Spratlys and other islands in the South China Sea that are vigorously disputed.

When the US performs a Freedom of Seas operation, they aren’t suddenly creating tension or another crisis like many drive by analysts would have us believe. They send an important signal of strength and peace. Because many of these areas are disputed, and Taiwan is given de facto recognition by many countries around the world, the US performs these operations to reaffirm the importance and constraints of international law.

These measures then are incredibly important because they prevent the de facto recognition of the disputed territory as China’s.  If international law is disregarded it will be a free for all in this region where disputes are settled by force. As the biggest military power in the region this would naturally encourage more assertive action by China.  If China aggressively controls the South China sea for example, they could easily cut off shipping in the region, through which almost half of the world’s merchant fleet passes.

Trump is Reasserting Basic International Law

That’s why it is important when Trump says he will stand for the rights to sail in international waters.  He is not picking a fight with China as some people have alleged, (though these Freedom of the Seas operations do have some danger), but simply reasserting basic rights of international law that the China is actively threatening. China has threatened every one of its neighbor, aggressively maneuvers near them, and actively builds bases in disputed territory that can project force. And they could pose a threat to basic freedoms of the see such as trade.  Supporting international law is something most Republicans are accused of ignoring in favor of their cowboy diplomacy. But this is an example that supports international law as an important mechanism in leading to peace.

It’s important to consider how many of the arguments against Trump and American military policy are based on general disdain for American military power and outspoken foreign policy positions, as well as libertarian articles of faith which are not actually based on a sound knowledge of the region. Unfortunately, criticism of US actions in the Strait of Taiwan is one of those cases.

L'articolo US Destroyer Sails Through the Tense Taiwan Strait proviene da InsideOver.

The USS Roosevelt nuclear-powered aircraft carrier came out of quarantine to make a stop recently in Vietnam. This is the second time in recent memory that a ship has visited Hanoi and it signals important changes in the region. Most news stories are about China’s aggression, military buildup, harassing of fishing boats, placement of weapon systems on artificial islands and so forth. But the carrier to the region represents the potential drawbacks to such a policy. This negative is that China could be creating its own set of alliances against their powerful nation.

Why Doesn’t China Have More Friends?

This problem was highlighted by a simple question. After a conference in 2017 where Chinese leadership refused to meet with the South Korean leader during his four day visit analysts asked an insightful question:  “[W]hy is it that for such a big country, there is hardly any neighbor that can be described as China’s friend?” China is a growing power and their military dwarfs their neighbors, but those neighbors are beginning to challenge China’s supremacy and they could form a block that surrounds and contains China. The danger comes from being in a situation similar to Germany before World War One, in that a Chinese fear of being surrounded could create an unstable doomsday machine of alliances and counter alliances that plunge the world into global war.

Parallel: Germany Before World War One

Before World War One, Germany constantly worried they would be surrounded. As a result they aggressively pursued their interests with their neighbors around them. But it often backfired. The First and Second Moroccan Crises sparked international outrage and led to a strengthening of the bonds between Britain and France against Germany. The Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 destabilized Eastern Europe and made Russia even more interested in supporting its remaining ally in the region against Germany and Austria Hungary. The end result of German maneuvers to not be trapped was a strengthening of alliances against them and what Henry Kissinger called a doomsday machine that plunged the world into the catastrophic warfare of World War One.

China claims they are addressing their rights and defending their sovereignty. But they are doing so by aggressively disputing land and maritime territories with most of its neighbors, including South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. Much like Germany before World War One, these actions end up being counterproductive.

Vietnam Boosting Forces to Counter China

Vietnam is specifically building forces meant to counter Chinese strength and is actively seeking allies that face the same threats from China, including India, Japan, and even the US. The visit of the USS Roosevelt solidifies this trend. With the recent trade war and tariffs between the US and China, as well as the significant disruption of Chinese supply chains during the coronavirus, Vietnam has become a sought after trade partner and welcomes investments from Japan and Australia as well, which leaves China with less leverage than many people think.

But Vietnam also has common cause against China in the South China Sea. By partnering with the US as a “cooperative maritime partner” and receiving equipment like the T-6 trainer aircraft and Scan Eagle Unstaffed Aerial Vehicles, as well as a supply of coastguard vessels. These will help counter balance China’s aggressive use of its coast guard that as recently as last month sunk and detained Vietnamese fisherman new the disputed Parcell Islands. In that dispute Washington firmly sided with Vietnam.

The Future of Vietnam-US Cooperation

Future cooperation will help the strategic calculus favor the US though problems remain. Domestically there is concern that allying with Vietnam will look like the US condones their human rights abuses and is becoming too close to a communist regime. This would significantly upset Vietnamese refugees. Vietnam has a long-standing policy of not allying with one foreign power against a third, hosting any foreign military camps, and refusing to change its nonaligned stance by joining with a superpower.

But the direction so far for Vietnam and almost every Chinese neighbor is one of more cooperation with the US against China. South Korea resisted Chinese pressure and allowed America to deploy Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) missiles. These missiles are a key defensive weapon system against China’s preferred strategy that consists of overwhelming amounts of missiles to deny access or destroy American forces. India had a tense ten-week standoff not too long ago in a critical strategic area connecting mainland India to its north eastern states but it was the Chinse that backed down. Japan is looking to move its companies out of China. and seeking new missiles for island defense.

The fear of a string of allied territories surrounding them could temper Chinese rhetoric and lead to more cooperation. But considering Beijing’s heavy handed oppression of Hong Kong protesters such a mellowing of belligerence seems unlikely. If China ends up being as isolated as pre-World War One Germany, they will try to win allies by aggressively pursuing their interests in border disputes, which will end up creating precisely the anti-Chinese block they fear.  Thus, the visit of the USS Roosevelt is incredibly important in signaling the inchoate creation of that block aimed at containing China.

L'articolo USS Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier Visits Vietnam: China Will Notice proviene da InsideOver.