A recent discovery of significant natural gas reserves within the Turkish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Black Sea was the main topic of Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s speech on August 21.

During a televised press conference from the Presidential Complex in Ankara, the Turkish President announced that the drilling vessel Fatih had discovered the largest-to-date energy reserve in Turkish territory. This statement comes at a crucial moment for the Turkish economy and the security and energy landscape in the region.

Erdogan Announces the ‘Good News’

On Wednesday August 19, Erdogan delivered a promising speech in the opening ceremony of the Kalyon Solar Technologies newest giga-facility in Ankara. Erdogan mentioned that he was to announce some very good news by Friday, regarding a development which would bring about a new era for Turkey.

Shortly after his statement, speculations around the context of the upcoming good news have been circulating; a Bloomberg report confirmed by Wednesday evening that the “good news” was related to a significant discovery by a Turkey in an energy field in the Black Sea.

The pre-announcement has partially eased the pressure on the Turkish lira, which momentarily gained more than 2% against US dollar; however the actual statement two days later, has reversed the gains, indicating that the estimations around the energy reserves which Erdogan made public during his Friday speech did not meet the expectations.

The natural gas reserves in Black Sea’s Tuna-1 zone could reportedly be approximately 11.3 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 320 billion cubic meters (bcm). According to Erdogan, this could be just a part of the total reserves in this energy field and could eventually be the catalyst to turn Turkey to a net gas exporter and a substantial energy hub in the wider region.

A Morale Boost for the Struggling Turkish Economy and a Very Optimistic Prediction

The Turkish President has tried to over-emphasize the discovery and imply that this would be game-changer for the Turkish economy, at a moment that both the short-term and macro-economic indicators seems rather grim for Ankara. Erdogan has also stressed the role of his son-in-law and current Minister of Finance and Treasury of Turkey Berat Albayrak. Before his appointment in the Ministry of Finance, Albayrak has served as the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources from 2015 to 2018, and has taken critical steps regarding the exploitation of the recent discovery and the nationalization of the country’s energy industry.

Erdogan has also tried to present a rather too optimistic time-plan for the exploitation of the resources, since he stated that by 2023 the reserves could be fully exploited and natural gas would be available to the domestic and international markets. The fact is that 2023 is a year of particular significance for the Turkish President since it coincides with the centenary of the Republic of Turkey.

Erdogan’s 2023 vision is a personal political bet, as the Turkish President would like to make a direct comparison with the founder of the Turkish Republic Kemal Ataturk and prove that his neo-Ottoman strategy has been much more beneficial for the Turkish people than the Kemalist legacy.

According to experts of the energy industry, gas reserves normally take four to seven years from the time of discovery until the phase of final extraction, and in the case of the latest Turkish discovery, analysts said that this time-frame could be even longer, up to 10 years. We can easily see that the claims of the Turkish President are over-optimistic and primarily aimed at serving his current political agenda.

Comparing Tuna-1 with other Natural Gas Reserves in the Region

In order to gain a clearer idea of the recent discovery it’s worth taking a quick look into other significant discoveries of energy reserves in the region over the past few years. To achieve a better understanding of the sizes we will also refer to the current population of each country, so we can set some very basic parameters for a more accurate comparison.

It’s important to mention once again here that the current estimations regarding Tuna-1 suggest that the reserve holds approximately 11.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. However it has not been clarified yet whether this the recoverable or the overall amount of the field. Turkey has a population of approximately 83 million.

Back in 2010, Israel discovered the massive Leviathan reserve. Leviathan is the largest gas reserve in Israel and holds approximately 22 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. Leviathan delivered gas to the domestic market not earlier than 2019. Israel is a country of approximately 9 million.

In 2015, Egypt discovered the largest natural gas field in the Mediterranean, the well-known Zohr. Zohr holds an estimated amount of more than 30 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. By 2019, Zohr achieved a daily production of 2.7 billion cubic feet per day, and Egypt has a total population of approximately 100 million.

Finally the island country of Cyprus, discovered the Glafkos field in 2019. Glafkos is expected to deliver between 5 and 8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, an impressive amount for the small country with a population of only 1.2 million.

From the Black Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean

The discovery of the natural gas field in the Black Sea comes at a critical moment for Turkey. Since late July, Ankara has attracted much attention, due to the controversial seismic research activities within parts of the Greek continental shelf.

Erdogan is seeking to establish a wide energy zone spanning from the Eastern Mediterranean all the way up to the Black Sea. The combination of grandiose announcements — in the case of Black Sea — and hybrid methods to create a de facto situation in the case of Eastern Mediterranean all fall within the same plan.

Erdogan’s ambitious strategy is to showcase Turkey as a remarkable regional energy hub and a unique energy corridor in a strategic crossroads between the East and the West.

L'articolo Will Turkey’s Gas Discovery in the Black Sea be a Game Changer? proviene da InsideOver.

As the world continues to grapple with coronavirus, another mysterious disease is silently infecting and killing villagers in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin. According to an investigation by The Guardian, the main symptoms of the disease – which one local leader claimed has killed 2000 people since 2014 include bleeding from the mouth and nose and intense yellowing of the eyes and palms.

Disease X

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has named it “Disease X,” a name given to a mysterious pathogen capable of spreading and wreaking havoc across the world.

When Abdi Khadar’s eyes and palms started turning yellow, nobody saw it as a cause for alarm. Soon he started bleeding from his nose and mouth with his body getting swollen. This was followed by a strong fever that made him frail eventually leading to his death. Many of Khadar’s neighbours have claimed experiencing similar symptoms .

Although the cause of the disease is not yet known, there are growing speculations that Poly-GCL, a partly state-owned Chinese company could be responsible. The company is currently engaged in oil and gas prospects in the Ogaden Basin where it has been developing the Calub and Hilala fields since 2013 when it signed a production sharing deal with the Ethiopian government.

Chinese Energy Company Spilling Toxic Waste May Be to Blame

An engineer who worked for the company for three years told the Guardian in confidence that there were regular spillages of sulphuric acid and other deadly fluids. This was reiterated by Ali Hassan Farah who claimed that “local people were dying from raw toxins spilled out of sheer carelessness.”

According to Healthline, long term exposure to toxins can cause scarring of the liver leading to a severe medical condition called Cirrhosis. Symptoms of cirrhosis occur when “the liver is unable to purify the blood, break down toxins, produce clotting proteins, and help with absorption of fats-soluble vitamins.”

Early symptoms include nose bleeds, yellow discoloration, weight loss, decreased appetite. More serious conditions that appear at an advanced stage include abdominal swelling, swelling of the legs, gynecomastia (men developing breasts) and impotence. The complications that could result from cirrhosis include kidney Failure and liver cancer.

Ethiopian Government: We are Not Aware of Any Reports of Toxic Spills

While Poly-GCL refused to comment when contacted, Ethiopian Government through the director of licensing at the federal ministry of mines and petroleum Mr Ketsela Tadesse, said it was not aware of any reports of spillages, also observing that there were no permanent residents in the vicinity of the gas project because people in the area were pastoral farmers.

“We can emphatically state that all the gas wells at Calub and elsewhere in the Ogaden Basin are sealed, safe and secured according to international standards,” said Tadesse. Despite this denial, medical experts in the area have claimed that most cases of the mysterious disease have emanated from the area around the gas project.

But there is also a possibility that the toxins were left by companies that operated in the area many years back before the arrival of the Chinese company. Extensive oil and gas deposits were first discovered in the area almost 90 years ago. The first exploration was undertaken by American Standard Oil in 1920. Further explorations by Tenneco also of America in 1974, led to the discovery of almost 68 million cubic meters of gas.

Could Disease X be Crimea-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever?

Whereas many in the affected areas are blaming such exploration as the cause, there is an implausible belief in some quarters that the disease could be ‘Crimea-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), a viral disease common in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia with sporadic outbreaks in Kosovo, Albania, Iran and Turkey over the years. Its symptoms include bleeding from the upper bowel, blood in the urine nosebleeds and bleeding from the gums.

Even though some of these symptoms could be similar to those of the mysterious disease , a number of factors rule out the possibility of CCHF. One is that the latter has been localized in one area for a very long time unlike CCHF which tends to spread fast across a wide geographical area if not controlled.

Ethiopia’s 2001 Struggle With A Strange Illness

It is not the first time a mysterious disease is being reported in Ethiopia. In early 2000s, a strange illness was reported in the Northern region after people living in the villages began to develop swollen abdomens, losing weight and showing signs of liver disease.

In some cases all members of one family were wiped out by the disease. In 2005 a multidisciplinary team made of Ethiopian medical experts, environmentalists and anthropologists supported by the US Centers for Disease Control, began to carry out investigations in the area to determine the cause.

After two years, the investigations ruled out infectious disease and suggested that the disease may be related to toxins in the diets of the locals. Although no definite cause was found the experts were able to narrow down the list of possibilities. They discovered that grain samples gathered from household farms contained low levels of plant based liver toxins called pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs). Their conclusion was that the cause of the outbreak was exposure to a toxic PA-contaminated grain or animal product.

L'articolo Mysterious “Disease X” Strikes in Ethiopia: What is it? proviene da InsideOver.

President Evo Morales was deposed on November 10 after almost three weeks of protests. The coup d’etat was backed by the US government.

Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, had run for a third consecutive time in office. This was following a ruling in December 2017 when the country’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice overruled the 2009 two-term limit constitution. Under the new constitution, all public offices would have no term limits.

Widespread protests began after the election on 20th of October. Morales, Bolivia’s longest-serving president, was accused of rigging the election, with 47.1% of the votes. With 36.51% of votes, his opponent, Messa, had called for a second-round vote. He would be backed by the USA, Argentina, Brazil and Colombia.

The new coup-backed government, under the leadership of Jeanine Áñez, would begin arresting journalists and politicians, forcing Morales into exile.

During his election campaigns, Morales had promised to return Bolivia to ‘resource nationalism’. Resource nationalism in Bolivia, author, Kevin A. Young, says in Blood of the Earth: Resource Nationalism, Revolution, and Empire in Bolivia “it is a struggle to control the country’s natural wealth.”

Morales’ promise included the protection of the indigenous population, who have historically died when mining resources used, in major parts, by the West.

The mining community, however, saw Morales’ resource nationalism as a threat to their profit. In May 2013, Engineering and Mining Journal (EM&J) reported that Morales’ environmental protectionism as “one of the biggest threats to the global mining industry] in the 21st century”.

“But with heightened awareness of [the mining industry’s] endeavours comes an emerging threat from foreign governments: resource nationalism – the use of tactics from increasing taxes and royalties to tightening exports to outright expropriation – curtailing access to resources for economic or political gain,” the article read.

Morales v. The Mining Industry

Bolivia is home to the largest indium deposit in the world, with the capacity for producing 80 tonnes yearly. The second-largest, in Mount Pleasant, Canada, has the capacity to produce less than half, with only 38.5 tons yearly.

Malku Khota, the site of Bolivia’s indium mine, is capable of producing substantial amounts of silver, indium, lead, copper, gallium and zinc. LCD screens used worldwide, in phones, computers and televisions, are made using indium, a rare metallic element processed out of zinc concentrate.

Before Morales came into power in 2007, resource nationalism was not on the agenda. Global companies operating Bolivia’s mining industry were allowed to profit massively from the country’s resources. Worse, the miners, comprising of indigenous workers, were paid meagerly.

To fulfil his promises of resource nationalism, Morales’s government ensured that the state-owned 51% of all oil and gas firms operating in Bolivia. Profits from mining in the energy sector went back into Bolivia’s public funds. Through these policies, extreme poverty was lowered by more than 50%, and Bolivia’s indigenous-majority population began living above poverty.

Assuaging the West’s neoliberal economic policies, Morales’ policies focused on “indigenous rights”. Under his economic model, the country would no longer be financially dependent on the World Bank, the USA and international mining industries to survive.

On July 10 2012, Morales’ government nationalised the Malku Khota mines, formerly under the ownership of Canada’s South American Silver. “Nationalization is our obligation,” he said.

By November 2018, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague would settle South American Silver’s case against the Bolivian government. Originally asking for $385.7 million, South American Silver would receive $27.7 million from the Bolivian government for the Malku Khota property.

Amid growing concerns of Morales’ nationalisation, in 2007, US Ambassador to Bolivia, Phillip Goldberg, sent a message to Washington. It read:

“Sadly, without dynamite in the streets, it is uncertain whether the Embassy or the international mining companies will be able to attain even this minimal goal [of organising a meeting with Vice President, Álvaro García Linera].”

The struggle over resources in Bolivia is the same story all over postcolonial Latin America. Neoliberalism must win in the region – by soft power or hard power – since Latin America’s resources keep the US wealthy.

L'articolo Bolivia’s Coup was About Who Gets Control of the Country’s Rare Metal, Indium proviene da InsideOver.