China has historically maintained an air of mystery and the nation is a potential competitor to Western power in our day, resulting in many fearful speculations about Beijing’s strategies and capabilities. But a careful analysis of Chinese strategy and US counter responses suggests that US is fairly well-prepared in its defensive maneuvers.

What is A2AD?

Anti Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) is a strategy used to prevent or severely restrict, slow down, or endanger the opponent and prevent their ability to operate in each area. This strategy would include tactics like blacking out American satellites, disabling launch codes on destroyers using hacking, forcing Americans to steer their own ships through difficult straits and shallow shoals, and then sending massive amounts of newer, faster, and deadly missiles including one called the carrier killing missile (which was just tested in the South China Sea.)

In the case of conflict this would mean that US forces would be unable to enter the theater of operations until they degrade those massive numbers of missiles and weapon systems.

The theory then goes, that by the time the US fights its way through that A2AD bubble China would have already seized disputed territory with Japan, Taiwan, or in the South China Sea. They would essentially dare the US to liberate the territory in the face of what would likely be negative world opinion and dropping public support. Hearkening back to Chinese military theory, they use new and unexpected technology to achieve their goal to win without fighting, and maybe without a single death.

US Army Doctrine

But the US isn’t standing idly by as they let China (or Russia) dictate a strategy that gives them a free hand for their imperialist land grabs. The war could be over before the US takes months to build up its forces and is ready to response.  Moreover, adversaries like China would ostensibly seek to use that window to win a short, quick war or seizure of territory. In fact, a short, preemptive war to seize territory has been their strategic signature since 1949.

To counter this strategic blind spot and be able to operate in the A2AD environment the US wants to have forces ready to either survive in theater or be able to project force into the theater. In terms of doctrine, the US Army has called this “multi domain operations.” They emphasize using all assets-land, maritime, air, space, cyberspace- to become a “forward presence and expeditionary [force] to deny enemy objectives within days and achieve an operational position of relative advantage within weeks.”

There is concern about what these forces and the rest of the US military will do in the event a short war turns into a protracted conflict but it remains critical to meet the danger of a short, quick war.

US Navy Changes

In pursuit of this strategy the US Navy is looking to adopt a greater number of smaller and unmanned vehicles (UV). These UVs will present a swarm of low cost counter missile batteries. They could use rail guns which use high velocity projectiles instead of explosives to counter missiles. (They are shot so fast that they can explode the warhead.) Another alternative consists of lasers which new technology has made portable enough for deployment on a variety of air, land, and sea platforms.

The problem with US technology is that many of their missiles cost a million dollars, and their ships billions of dollars, while the swarms the Chinese will use, such as drones, cost as little as 50 dollars. Even if no missiles strike capital ships, the US would have spent billions of dollars in munitions to destroy plastic drones. But rail gun ammunition is extremely cheap, and lasers can fire all day if the power is running on the ships.

Having no (or in some cases limited) crew and a cheap design will make any potential engagement less costly. Some analysts claim this means the Navy is admitting the carrier is obsolete. But the unmanned vehicles will allow the carrier battle group to project power against more selective targets. As the doctrine stated, “to achieve advantage within a few weeks.”

Marine Corps Changes

Ships aren’t the only item to help. The US Marine Corps is also changing their force structure. They don’t want to be a second land army and thus are moving to eliminate tanks, helicopters and some MP battalions. They do want more and lighter amphibious ships that will better survive inside an A2AD environment, and as well as long range missiles that can project power into the A2AD theater. The Marines will also get unmanned air, land and sea platforms. In particular, the leaders envision a Marine force that can survive in a garrison that can headquarter in Okina, Japan but be stationed in small groups across the Pacific with enough weapons to form a bubble that can degrade enemy A2AD operations, or provide their own A2AD space.

This has the danger of them being overrun if the plan doesn’t work, but it could possibly stop the war by having an island of Marines with the tools to immediately stop enemy aggression.

The details are still being formed and they have their share of criticisms. But the new force structure and doctrine is encouraging news. The United States is taking concrete steps to adapt new technologies, like small unmanned vehicles, and integrate them with a force structure like missiles and existing carriers. They are doing this in order to defend allies against China’s strategic signature moves and any potential window of opportunity Beijing would have for a quick strike.

L'articolo US Military Countering China’s A2AD Strategy proviene da InsideOver.

According to a recent story from Bloomberg, Turkey has asked for US Patriot missiles to be deployed in the Turkish border with northern Syria. This request has been made on the grounds that several Turkish servicemen have been killed over the last weeks in the region, and Patriots could work as a deterrence measure to potential airstrikes from the Syrian or Russian Air force. Official US sources, on the base of anonymity, have allegedly confirmed the request.

What Is Ankara’s Strategy in This Case?

Hulusi Akar, the Turkish Defence Minister, stated on 20 February 2020, during an interview with CNN Turk that some of the threats posed in the region, by Syria — or Russia — could be efficiently dealt with after the deployment of the Patriot system. Akar clarified that there is no suggestion whatsoever for the assignment of US troops in the area, a rather obvious conclusion one could say, given the US policy towards Syria and the Turkey-US thorny relations, in the recent past. The Turkish Defense Minister also mentioned that talks between Ankara and Washington about the acquisition of the Patriot system were still ongoing, a highly unlikely scenario under the current circumstances, as will be further explained shortly.

The Patriot statements should not take us by surprise at all, as President Erdogan himself has brought up the issue at least three times after the S-400 agreement. This aligns with the typical — and productive — Turkish strategy of never excluding any of the big players from the table and always trying to achieve a modus vivendi even with diametrically opposing powers. Erdogan seems to be using the Patriot and S-400 cards interchangeably, in order to create the appropriate leverage towards US and Russia. The way the story has been presented by Bloomberg and reproduced by the Turkish state-run News Agency, Anadolu, indicates that Turkey is probably trying to create a context of unpredictability about Erdogan’s next moves and hint at the idea of a rapprochement with the US and the Western block. To this end, Akar in his interview has emphasized the idea that an allied country could provide the Patriot batteries to Turkey as a coordinated effort to protect a NATO member from an external threat.

The T‐LORAMIDS Program: a Long, Complex Story

Still the question must arise: how exactly did Turkey get itself in this current situation? The T-LORAMIDS or (Long-Range Air-and Missile-Defense System) program has been a key aspect of the Turkish strategic defense. Ankara has shifted sides several times since the program was launched. Chinese HQ‐9 SAM have been initially selected back in 2013, considering the efficiency, the cost and the engagement of the Turkish industry in the production and other phases of the project, a critical factor for Ankara. The plan had to be cancelled, though, in 2015, with official sources quoting technical difficulties; the US and European reaction to Turkey deploying such a sophisticated strategic weapon from China should be actually considered as the primary reason.

Another T-LORAMIDS program started in 2016 with the US Raytheon Patriot and Russian Almaz-Antey S-400, being among the bidders. A Turkey-Russia agreement had been signed by mid-2017, for the deployment of four S-400 batteries within the Turkish territory. This deal has provoked most of the NATO allies, and especially the US, who have vigorously opposed this deal since its very beginning. Defence Minister Hulusi Akar has confirmed that since May, 2019 Turkish personnel has been sent to Russia to receive training on the new missile system. Additionally, Erdogan stated in May, 2019 that a joint project for procurement and production of the enhanced S-500 system, was among the top priorities for Ankara and Moscow. The first two S-400 batteries have been delivered to Turkey in July and September 2019 respectively. According to Akar, the weapon will be fully operational by April 2020.

The Patriot system has been offered twice to Turkey, in the context of the T-LORAMIDS programme in 2013 and in 2017 respectively; both times it has been rejected. However, Ankara has been trying to keep open channels with Raytheon and the US defense industry and has suggested in several occasions that a revised offer regarding the Patriot system would be considered.

Talks about the potential sale to Turkey of 20 M903 Launching Stations and four Engagement Control Stations alongside AN/MPQ-65 radar sets have been taking place in December 2018 within the US State Department; however, such a deal did not move forward, due to the acquisition of the S-400 system from Russia. Since then, President Erdogan has repeated his intention to discuss an updated Patriot deal on February and November, 2019, but so far, the US side has made clear that the concurrent use of the S-400 and specific NATO strategic weapons is out of the question; therefore the planned S-400 deployment in April should be a no-go for any Turkish proposals from a US perspective.

Conclusion: Erdogan’s Gambit

The latest developments indicate that Turkey is not looking at these missile systems simply as a strategic weapon that could significantly affect the defense capabilities of the country; instead, Erdogan is using the attention drawn and the debate over these weapons as a geopolitical tool, a means to balance between the East and the West and to put pressure on each side according to the Turkish strategic interests. At this point, it would be interesting to wait for the US reaction, even though Ankara should not anticipate a very accommodating stance from Washington. The current circumstances seem far from ideal for the Turkish side, as the Turkish President has probably already played most of his cards and there is no room for further maneuvers in this power struggle with Russia.

L'articolo Ankara Requests Patriot Support On Syrian Border proviene da InsideOver.

Critics mocked US Senator Ted Cruz when he suggested that space piracy is a concern. This led to funny memes that inserted various sci fi characters into the role of space pirates. But the international treaties regarding space law were based on maritime principles so Cruz’s statement was actually less outlandish than critics made it seem. The giggle factor in discusses outer space is the central problem with any concern of the Space Force. Talk of piracy or using camouflage on space uniforms seem silly when the public encounters them but less so when discussing the actual details and role of the space force.

What Is The US Space Force?

The Space Force is the first newly independent branch of the armed forces since the creation of the Air Force in 1947. Space Force was officially launched on December 20, 2019 and the arguments for and against an independent air force which were advanced back when it was launched are also being argued with regard to Space Force. The main argument against specialized branches of the military is that it concentrates resources on missions with laser like focus, overlooking other aspects. But these arguments discount the variety of specializations that each branch contains. For example, the F35 has variants for each branch of service because the navy operates planes on its carriers, the army trains in amphibious assaults, and the Air Force has security personnel on the ground.

The Space Force’s Role Going Forward

Space Force brings the same positives of specialization and negatives of redundancy. But since the Space Force exists it can now be a branch dedicated to space matters like protecting satellites, exploring the capabilities of US assets in low orbit and testing systems that can be deployed as additional missile defense. They will do so in ways that sometimes compete instead of complimenting the cyber security of the army, missile defenses of fleets, and the air force observations of potential launches against satellites, but the Space Force will still be helpful to US national security.

Space is categorized by extreme heat and cold, lack of oxygen, and low gravity which will benefit from a specialized trained force. The largest threat would be an orbital Pearl Harbor strike against satellites by potential adversaries. One writer described a fictional cyber war in 2030 where China launched preemptive hacking and malware attacks that penetrated satellites using their comparatively primitive microwave system. The counter striking US drones suddenly drop their missiles which harmlessly sink into the sea. China escalates by launches advances missiles at the bulky and exposed satellites. The advanced sensors on the F35 go blank and they can’t relay the needed information to the navy’s overlapping layers of missile defense and the ships themselves have to rely on the sun and the stars to navigate back to port before they are hit by advancing missile swarms.

Space Force: New Defenses Against Cyber Warfare And Missile Attacks

The Space Force would be tasked with developing new defenses against both cyber warfare and missile attacks to prevent that scenario. The software can be updated and stress tested for weaknesses. Space Force could physically harden the satellites leading to potential mocking headlines like “space armor against space pirates.” But it remains vital.

Moving to more proactive measures, the Space Force can design lasers, defensive ballistic missiles, or rail guns that can be based on the ground or in space. Each of these materials has its own benefits and draw backs. Intercepting missiles are the most common in America’s arsenal but as the Saudi’s found in Iran’s drone attack on their oil facilities, it is not perfect. There are some missiles designed to intercept in high orbit such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles. They could be transferred to the Space Force for interception training. Lasers provide unlimited ammunition (as long as they are powered) but are still experimental. This means that American forces won’t have to use expensive, million dollar, missiles to stop other missiles. Rail guns have been tested with launching rockets into space, but they could be used as interceptors for missiles. They can destroy enemy missiles using the energy of its impact, which like lasers, will mean ammunition becomes far less expensive. There are suggestions that they launch projectiles fast enough (near Mach 6) to launch off the moon or in space. The Space Force then will be researching new ways to use weapons to defend satellites.

So far the discussion over Space Force has focused on defense, but one reason why America is so worried about the placement of defensive Chinese weapons in the South China Sea is that defensive weapons also have offensive uses. The Space Force can develop weapons that not only defend against incoming missiles, but assist air, ground and sea forces. This sounds like a dangerous militarization of space. But unfortunately, other powers have already developed weapons with the potential to strike American satellites. Just like the Cold War that produced a rough parity, offensive-minded weapons can provide a deterring effect and bring peace.

Science fiction has presented many ideas over the years, but we are entering a new era where the Space Force makes laser defense, hardened satellites, and rail gun launched counter attacks real. It is imperative that governments understand and take this into account.

L'articolo Space Pirates and Orbital Pearl Harbor: Understanding the US Space Force proviene da InsideOver.