On October 27, precisely one month after the war broke out in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Tehran dispatched its deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi to the capital of Azerbaijan.

In Baku, the Iranian envoy discussed an initiative with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and other Azeri officials to end the relentless conflict in the mountainous enclave between Azerbaijan and Armenia over territories that Tehran still deems to be occupied by Armenian forces.

“We always support Azerbaijan’s efforts to liberate its occupied cities and areas,” Araghchi said in Baku. “The territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan and other countries in the region, and the inviolability of borders are an important and irreproachable principle that must be respected,” he added.

From Baku, Tehran’s envoy then flew to Moscow, which stands out almost alone as Armenia’s supporter against Azerbaijan. In Russia, like in Azerbaijan, the initiative appeared to draw appreciation, as Moscow openly said later that it would welcome the initiative presented by Tehran.

A Viable Balance

After weeks of reticence, Russia finally took a stand favoring Armenia, with which it has significant military deals, whereas Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan seems to know no setbacks.

Unlike Russia and Turkey, however, Iran has more or less equidistant relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it sees a space to fill in the gap left by the two belligerents’ refusal to commit to peacemaking.

Heavily affected by economic sanctions as it still grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic, Tehran could at last bring its diplomacy to restore its reputation on a regional and global scale.

As far as religion and ethnicity are concerned, Iran is doubtless closer to Azerbaijan than it is to Armenia. The majority of the Azerbaijan’s population are Shia Muslim, while the Azeri people constitute the largest ethnic minority in Iran.

Armenia, on the other hand, is one of Iran’s most strategic allies in the region as well as an essential trade partner. In 2018, trade relation between the two countries hit an all-time record high, despite the economic sanctions imposed on Tehran.

Moreover, Iran borders both Azerbaijan and Armenia, and, in addition to its cordial diplomatic ties with both sides, Tehran has a history of mediation in the two countries’ decades-long conflict.

Iran’s Conundrum

If Iran has managed to safeguard equal relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, however, it surely did so on account of the fact that it needs both countries equally — not least in a context of global discontent and economic sanctions.

On October 1, four iranian political representatives from provinces highly populated with Azeri ethnic groups released a joint statement that declared full support for Azerbaijan, claiming the war was an act of aggression from Armenia. Yet, that same day, Iran also reportedly opened its airspace for Russian military supplies bound for Armenia.

In addition to Turkey, which has long been at odds with Iran in Syria by supporting the opposition of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Israel – Iran’s regional arch foe – has also provided significant help for Azerbaijan, with which it has long established economic, military and intelligence cooperation.

Some even expected that Azerbaijan’s relation with Ankara and Tel Aviv would push Iran to stand with Armenia. Yet, in that case, Iran could easily face unrest among its Azeri population, as one of its major concerns regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains a potential spillover of violence into its own national territory.

Moreover, energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, notably in the Caspian Sea, could prove essentially beneficial to Iran in the event that economic sanctions are lifted. Tehran also hopes to join the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline to export energy to EU countries. All the same, Armenia has proved to be a strategic help for Iran to circumvent international sanctions imposed on its energy and banking sectors.

The Minsk Group’s Failure

After his visit to Azerbaijan and Russia, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Armenia, where he met with the country’s Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and discussed the human rights of the Armenian ethnic groups living in the disputed territories.

Echoing Russia, Armenia also said it would welcome Iran’s initiative to end the Nagorno-Karabakh fighting, for which Iran vehemently blames the Minsk Group – save Russia.

“Some of the member countries of this group are not even in the region and their inefficiency has been proven,” Araghchi said in Armenia, conspicuously pointing an accusing finger at France and the United States, who, he added, have “no real desire to establish peace.”

The Iranian envoy then traveled to Ankara, where he met Turkey’s Foreign Minister Sedat Onal.

So far, reports suggest that thousands of people, with civilians among them, have already died in the conflict, as three ceasefire agreements have been breached. Unlike Russia, Iran is less likely to pick one side at the detriment of the other. It could thus bring about the needed neutrality, a sine qua none for ending the conflict.

L'articolo Stagnation in Nagorno-Karabakh Presents a Chance for Tehran proviene da InsideOver.

As a sign of how turbulent the Nagorno-Karabakh region has become, a ceasefire that took effect Oct. 18 lasted mere minutes. Fighting quickly resumed with each side blaming the other for violating the truce. While no one expected the arrangement to magically cure decades of squabbling over the territory, there was at least some hope that a pause could take hold and allow for diplomacy.

The truth of the matter is that a ceasefire is simply not enough to considering the forces at work in the Armenian–Azerbaijan conflict. With no one to hold the states accountable for breaking the truce, there was little incentive for them to honor it. It was’t even the first time this month a ceasefire arrangement had been tried; on Oct. 10, a similar deal was struck and like the latest, it too was quickly discarded.

Another Proxy War

With Turkey and Russia stoking opposing sides in the war, the feud will continue until it no longer serves their interests. Although Moscow did broker the Oct. 10 arrangement, it in all likelihood understood it was destined to fail. After all, the Kremlin is fighting proxy battles against Turkey in Libya and Syria. They are one of the ways Russia is expanding its sphere of influence, by challenging Ankara.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not known to back down from a challenge. He annexed Crimea and continues feeling disruptions in Ukraine. Worse, he has carried out both with minimal negative consequences from the international community. Therefore, why shouldn’t Russia continue pushing Armenia to defend itself? 

Put simply, conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is viewed by Moscow as another opportunity — perhaps even an obligation — to stand up to Turkey. That mentality is precisely the reason the fighting won’t simmer down anytime soon.

Unlike Syria and Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh was once part of the Soviet Union. The battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan is amplified when viewed through this lens by which Putin approaches the situation.  To add more justification for Russian support, it has a mutual defense agreement with Armenia, raising the possibility of military support from Moscow. Currently, Russia has ruled out the option, however.

Where Is The Minsk Group?

Russia, alongside France and the US, co-chairs the Minsk group that is tasked with keeping the peace in the region. As Andrew E. Kramer noted for The New York Times, the world became too preoccupied to notice trouble brewing and the Minsk Group similarly was caught off guard. 

The problem with the organisation is that its members are currently ill-suited for the task of keeping and restoring order. Washington is in no place to broker peace with a president who has spent his administration sowing discord. France has the most level-headed of the three powers, but it is presently consumed with a fight it is losing in the Sahel and other African interests, notably Libya. 

Russia is similarly flat-footed as the Kremlin’s resources are spread rather thin. Putin has his state involved in conflicts across the globe from Greece and Libya to Belarus and even domestic protests. 

The Minsk Group was established to be a body dedicated to long-term peace, but with only three members that are all busy trying to be the next superpower, it is incredibly weak and ineffective.

Turkey’s Armenia Problem

Finally, there is the Turkish aspect to the equation. Ankara cast heavy doubts on peace succeeding without the complete withdrawal of Armenians from the region, as Thomas Falk wrote for InsideOver. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan likely views the recent outbreak of renewed conflict as a chance for Ankara to finally have its way in the region.

Turkey has always considered the issue of Armenia a struggle to overcome. Over 100 years after the Armenia Genocide, the Turkish government continues to attempt to disassociate itself with the word, insisting on referring to it as “Events of 1915.”

While Turkey, like the Minsk Group, has called for peace in the region, it would only accept it on its terms, which means Armenians would need to abandon territory they have held for decades.

What Will Peace Take?

Peace in Nagorno-Karabakh will only come when world powers — the Minsk Group and Turkey — resolve that the region will not become a battleground for a proxy war between Ankara and Moscow. Furthermore, after decades in limbo, it is time for the world to recognize the region as independent from Azerbaijan. The state has not had control of it for long enough that it can’t possibly continue to lay claim to it.

Ceasefires in Nagorno-Karabakh are growing shorter and shorter. Soon, there may be an all-out war because the organisation responsible for preventing it is too self-interested and preoccupied to do actively pursue peace.

L'articolo Minsk Group Absent as Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict Continues proviene da InsideOver.