The previous election result displayed what had been evident for a while: Canada is deeply divided. The coastal regions are progressive, while the oil provinces and conservative countryside are worried about their future. Prime Minister Trudeau has now introduced his Cabinet, with which he seeks to tackle the issues Canada faces. Once again Trudeau has taken a route towards symbolism over Realpolitik.

One month after the Canadian general election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has presented and sworn in his new Cabinet. Its main duties according to Trudeau: Reunite the country, enable economic growth for the middle class, combat climate change, and ensure the safety of Canadian communities.

Rather ambitious plans for a Prime Minister, who will need the support of other parties to facilitate any of his visions. His party lost its majority in the previous election. Now, Trudeau is leading a minority government.

One reason for Trudeau’s fall from grace – besides having been exposed as not being holier than water after all – was that his party could not win a single seat in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Both are the heart of the Canadian oil industry, however, Trudeau’s obsession in favor of a pro-climate course has alienated voters in the region, who are feeling their livelihoods are at stake. Currently, protesters in the two provinces have been holding rallies in favor of a “Wexit”, i.e. a secession of the Canadian West from the rest of the country.

The reappearance of Bloc Québécois, who tripled their seats, has created another issue for Trudeau. The party gained support by promising to defend the concerns of French-speaking Canada. Trudeau’s answer? Ten of the thirty-six ministerial posts in his cabinet are from Quebec in an obvious attempt to immediately cease any emerging secessionism initiated by Bloc Québécois.

Twelve former ministers received new roles, while the cabinet only has seven members who had not been part of the previous administration. As in 2015, Trudeau paid attention to parity. Half of the posts are thus occupied by women.

One of these women is Mona Fortier. She is the Minister for Middle-Class Prosperity. It is a nearly created office, and Trudeau’s answer to an extremely worried middle-class in the country.

Meanwhile, the former Trade and Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland seeks to help him to master the domestic challenges, namely as Minister for Intergovernmental Affairs, while also becoming the new Deputy Prime Minister. Freeland’s successor as Foreign Minister will be the current Infrastructure Minister François-Philippe Champagne.

The new cabinet will meet for the first time in Ottawa on December 5. By then Trudeau also seeks to present to parliament the priorities of his government. As he announced on Wednesday, the first reform will target tax relief for the middle class.

In the face of the deep divisions, the country faces and Trudeau’s subpar election result answers to the question of how Trudeau would now try to bridge these trenches was eagerly awaited in recent weeks.

As so often with Trudeau, however, symbolism has remained on the top of his agenda and the middle-class ministry, as well as French-speaking cabinet members, are a testimony to it. It reminds one more of a campaign promise than a specific task description and it makes one wonder, whether Trudeau received the message the voters provided him with on election night.

Trudeau has become a Canadian left-wing version of Donald Trump. A President not for the country, but his base. It is where the issue lies for Trudeau and he is unlikely to escape the conundrum satisfying the call for even more progressivism on the one hand and traditional, Canadian values on the other.

L'articolo Lesson not Learned: Trudeau Introduces his Cabinet in What will Likely be his last Term proviene da InsideOver.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempt to bring the centrist Blue and White party into a joint government with his own Likud party has come to nothing. His rival, Benny Gantz of the Blue and White party, has now been given the chance to form a new government by the president. This marks the first time that someone other than Netanyahu has been asked to form a government since 2008.

Gantz has until about the end of November to make it work. If he doesn’t, another national election will more than likely be called, which would be the third one in a single year – something unprecedented in Israel’s history.

Such a scenario looks increasingly likely. Israel has many parties with differing interests – and drawing them together will probably hinge more on exhaustion with the political progress than a genuine desire for cooperation.

Gantz’s Gambit

Gantz has said he wants a “national reconciliation” government for the country, where the population is tired of unending political disputes. Unfortunately, the various factions he has to convince to secure such an alliance – secularists, centrists, right-wing Orthodox and Arab factions – are in many cases opposed to being reconciled.

Three possible coalitions have been put forward. Gantz could seek to ally his Blue-and-White Alliance with the Yisrael Beiteinu and Arabic parties to establish the needed 61-seat government. He could, alternatively, form a minority government with the right-wing Orthodox and Arab factions. Finally, he can seek to form a government with Likud – Netanyahu’s party.

None of these seem very likely. Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List – a group of Arab-interest parties – are hostile to one another. The second option, where Gantz achieves a minority government, would be difficult, and only results in a very fragile government. And while Likud would allow Gantz to form a majority government, he has said in the past he would only do so without Netanyahu – who is currently under investigation for three criminal charges, including bribery. As of Monday, there have been some reports that Gantz is reconsidering this position.

Gantz’s lack of political experience and his career in the military also do not recommend him as a peacemaker. As the head of Israel’s military between 2011 and 2015, he is partly responsible for the illegal operations against Palestinians under occupation in Gaza. And while his current political influence developed by positioning himself against widespread corruption: his skill has a diplomat is unproven.

Together, these factors suggest another election will be called by the end of November. But recent polls suggest there is no reason to suspect that will resolve the deadlock, as voters stay loyal to their previous choices. However, frustrated with his inability to create a consensus, the Blue and White party may lose support.

The Future of the Country (and its conflict)

In the meantime, Gantz will continue to seek coalition partners. Over the weekend Gantz met with Netanyahu to try and form a coalition with Likud, but these meetings ended without a conclusive plan. The alliance, if it can be formed, would always be strained: Gantz promised to keep ultra-Orthodox Jewish extremist parties out of government, while they were a significant part of Netanyahu’s movement.

The disruption to politics – and the desperation to move beyond this gridlock may present a window for the various Arab parties – who represent the 21% Arab population of Israel. A potential government could include the Joint List, an alliance of Arab parties, as part of a centrist coalition – while excluding the Arab nationalist Balad, which has historically argued against the existence of Israel.

The slow process of determining Israel’s political future may affect ongoing global relationships. For example, it will halt progress on the proposed “Middle East peace plan” put forward by the US and Trump’s senior advisor, Jared Kushner. The plan attracted intense scrutiny and controversy this year, even before being published, and was rejected by Palestinian political factions as overwhelmingly favouring Israeli interests.

There is an option if Gantz fails, besides calling another election. The president can hand the task back to Parliament, at which point, lawmakers have 21 days to select a new candidate to seek a majority. Exhausted by the gridlock and the desire to avoid a third election: there may be support enough to bring Netanyahu back for a fifth term in office.

L'articolo Why Israel may Face its Third Election in One Year proviene da InsideOver.

While the absolute majority is lost, Trudeau’s party remains the strongest in Ottawa’s parliament. Signs are pointing towards a minority government.

Canada’s election turned out to be the cliff-hanger it was advertised as. The Trudeau-led Liberals defended their position as governing party, receiving 33 per cent of the votes, a minus of 6.5 per cent compared to 2015. Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party received 34.4 per cent (+2.5).

In the traditional sense, Scheer is the election winner. However, Canada’s election system of majority voting will likely keep Trudeau in Office. In Mandates, his party beats his conservative opponent by 157 seats to 121.

Significant gains in votes were recorded by the regional Bloc Québécois, 7.7 per cent (+3) resulting in 32 seats, as well as the Green Party with 6.5 per cent (+3) and three seats. The New Democrats received 15.9 per cent (-3.8) and 24 seats.

The Liberals will continue to set the tone in parliament, however, not with the comfortable majority on which Trudeau could rely after his election victory in 2015. At that time, the Liberals had obtained 184 of the 338 seats in a landslide victory.

Trudeau’s losses did not come as a surprise. Many moments in which the progressive icon himself did not satisfy the lofty moral standards he had established for the country.

Trudeau’s loss of the absolute majority has not only been a statement by the Canadian people, but it will likely result in a minority government. In Canada, minority governments are quite common, while coalitions are uncommon.

While the last two elections have resulted in majorities – in 2015 for the Liberals, previously for the Conservatives – minority governments followed in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections. Every third election since 1921 led to such a constellation.

With the election results from Monday, the Canadian parliament gains additional power over Trudeau’s government. So far, the Liberals controlled all committees and thus their respective agendas. Times on The Hill are set to become very interesting for Trudeau.

Trudeau’s future government is likely to be solidified by the decline of the New Democrats and the starched Bloc Québécois. The New Democrats could even face a leadership crisis after a disappointing result. Hence, re-election would be the worst-case scenario for both parties. This circumstance is likely to be Trudeau’s advantage and could allow him to conduct his minority government with some support.

However, this support comes with a price: a further turn to the left. The New Democrats seek to invest a significant sum into climate-change measures. If Trudeau seeks their support, he will have to comply.

It is what will likely make or break the next government. A further left turn equals an all-in move by Trudeau, as it may not only increase fears in the Canadian financial market but likely fully alienates oil-rich provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan – places that already voted in favour of the Conservatives.

Nonetheless, Trudeau will seek redemption and reinvent himself as the uber-progressive, who won the 2015 election so decisively. Unfortunately, by doing so, Trudeau continues to transform into a phenomenon, he had been highly critical of in the past: a leader, who only serves his base and not the country.

L'articolo Trudeau Wins Canadian Election Despite Significant Losses proviene da InsideOver.