Mali, one of Africa’s prized possessions and once known as the hub of democracy in the continent is facing its worst crisis since 2012. On August 18, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita  and his Prime Minister Boubou Cissé were arrested after some Malian soldiers fired gunshots at a key army base in Kati. The incursion led to a mutiny by another faction of Mali’s armed forces.

The small army town of Kati is located right outside the capital of Bamako and is considered to be one of the most politically important places in the country.

Mali: a History of Never-Ending Problems

Mali is a country which has faced many problems. Islamist insurgency groups, political corruption and mismanagement of basic resources are only some of these issues. There are many militants who returned to the country following the end of Muammar Qaddafi’s reign in Libya in 2011. They were being supplied with weapons to fight the Tuareg rebels in the country’s north.

Nearly half of the country lives in extreme poverty without access to employment, education or healthcare and disruption caused by rebel groups has worsened the situation. The country’s economy is largely dependent on mining, agriculture and gold. Rebel groups in the country say they’ve taken matters into their own hands to fight excessive violence by security forces and widespread corruption by the government.

What Led to the Ouster of Mali’s Government?

In order to understand what led to the ouster of Keita we need to go back to March 2020 when the coronavirus started to spread rapidly across the world. At the same time, parliamentary elections were being held in Mali, where the now deposed president was trying to tighten his grip by gaining the maximum number of seats. The first round of voting went ahead despite the threat of the coronavirus and the frequent attacks by armed groups.

The second round was when all these problems deepened. The second round — which took place at the end of April — was disrupted by numerous incidents which led to the constitutional court overturning the results for 31 key seats and handing these seats to Keita’s Rally for Mali party.

Malians and opposition political parties joined hands in May the following month to form an alliance which was called the “Movement of June 5 – Rally of Patriotic Forces.” The alliance — led by famous Islamic preacher Imam Mahmoud Dicko — called on the president to step down due to his failure in controlling the extensive crises plaguing the country.

Problems Intensify

The months of June and July were extremely troublesome for Mali, with protests — not only in the capital Bamako but across the country — growing violent. The alliance called for civil disobedience and the dissolution of the parliament after Keita floated political reforms. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) called on politicians to form a unity government but that move was also rejected by protesting opposition groups who wanted the direct removal of Keita from office.

Just earlier this month on August 12, security forces clashed with protesters and fired tear gas to disperse thousands of protesters at a square in Bamako. Five days later on August 17 the opposition declared that they would not bow down to the pressure imposed by security forces and the Keita government. The very next day, Keita and PM Cissé were both arrested after some soldiers from the army mutinied and detained them.

The International Community’s Involvement in Mali

France is in Mali as part of Operation Barkhane, a counterterrorism operation against Islamic Jihadists who wish to impose their control in the whole Sahel region. France entered Mali in 2013 and has been heavily involved ever since. It also happens to be Mali’s former colonial ruler.

The G5 Sahel force is also another group of players deployed in Mali to monitor developments. The African Union and the United Nations are also playing a significant role in Mali. The UN is overseeing the implementation of the 2015 Accord, better known as the Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in Mali resulting from the Algiers Process.

This accord was brought forward to control Islamic and ethnic militias operating in Mali. Like all other deals, this one has also failed to quell unrest. Finally, the United States is also a key player in containing the spread of violence, bloodshed and terror that militia groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaeda have continued to spread in the Islamic Maghreb.

The Aftermath of Keita’s Removal

With millions displaced and thousands killed, the future of Mali is on a knife’s edge. For France, this is an opportunity to fix emerging problems. Its presence in the country could be short-lived following the public uproar against the Malian government and its international partners.

Keita failed to clamp down on corruption by installing allies in the government. Despite numerous attempts to satisfy his citizens he failed miserably, proving that there was no democracy left in the country and showing the instability of the country’s institutions.

What’s Next for Mali?

Mali’s ever-growing problems can only be solved if a variety of genuine policies are implemented and long-awaited reforms are put into practice. It can do this by firstly integrating a peace process which would satisfy all stakeholders; the Mali government, the citizens of the country and the armed groups. Negotiations must take place between these groups to carve out a solution that would be beneficial for long-term survival.

Secondly, there should be new actors in Mali, those who are willing to respect the decisions of their people and are knowledgeable in running a country marred by years of civil wars.

Lastly, there should be new guarantors and the 2015 Accord must be used in a manner which takes the needs and wants of people into consideration. The new guarantors could be the United States or the United Nations which will help implement democratic values and oversee Mali’s reconstruction. Given the prevalence of jihadist and militant groups and its continuing political unrest, the road ahead is likely to be tough, but it can be countered if necessary actions are taken by the right leaders and stakeholders.

L'articolo Mali’s Political Crisis and the Long Road Ahead proviene da InsideOver.

President Trump has warned Venezuela that the US is preparing “crippling” and “impactful measures” to force Nicolás Maduro from power. His warnings came during his meeting with opposition coalition leader Juan Guaidó, who met with Trump at the White House this past Wednesday.

“We are probably halfway to what maximum pressure [on Maduro] could look like,” a senior administration official told the press earlier. “We are only moving in one direction and that is forwards.”

Guaidó’s Repeated Failures

So far, Juan Guaidó’s multiple US-backed coups in Venezuela have all failed. The final failure came in January when journalists claimed that Guaidó faked an incident in which he claimed he was blocked from entering Venezuela’s National Assembly by security forces. The staged incident was in response to learning that the opposition lawmakers were replacing him as National Assembly president. Guaidó was hoping the stunt would gain him support from international leaders.

What actually happened is that Guaidó had refused to enter the National Assembly unless permitted to enter with eleven former members of the National Assembly. They included members who had been barred from serving by Venezuela’s Supreme Court, after allegedly concocting a voter-buying scheme in their elections. Other members of the eleven-strong group had parliamentary immunity stripped from them after participating in another Guaidó-led uprising in April last year.

Maduro’s 2018 Re-election

During the 2018 Venezuelan presidential elections, President Nicolás Maduro was democratically and constitutionally re-elected, after agreeing to the opposition demanding an early election. Maduro, the late President Hugo Chávez’s mentee, won by a wide margin with 67.48% of votes, followed by Henri Falcón’s 20.93% of votes.

During this time, Guaidó illegally declared himself interim president, despite none of the constitutional conditions for doing so being met. US Vice President, Mike Pence, would go on to congratulate Guaidó on becoming interim president.

Guaidó’s Unsuccessful 2019 Coup Attempt

By April 2019 Guaidó would attempt another unsuccessful coup, stating that: “The time to topple Maduro’s regime is right now.”

Presently, authorities have stripped Guaidó of parliamentary immunity, and are carrying out multiple investigations against him. Like Guaidó, Venezuela’s opposition are currently in total disarray.

Dr. Francisco Eissa-Barroso, a lecturer in Latin American History at The University of Manchester said: “I don’t know if the US will succeed in placing a US-backed president in power in Venezuela, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do.

“Short of a military intervention—either openly carried out by US forces, which seems unlikely, or covertly by providing arms, equipment, training and tactical support to the still small group of Guaidó supporters within the Venezuelan armed forces—I struggle to see what Trump could do in the short term to achieve his aim. In the medium run, however, it seems likely that whatever replaces Maduro’s regime will be much more to the US’s liking,” Eissa-Barroso added.

The Roots Of Venezuela’s Current Conflict

For Eissa-Barroso, however, the situation is far more complicated than reported, and dates back to Venezuela’s deeply-entrenched socialist ideologies, and its long-standing history with the US.

“In the 2015 legislative election when Maduro lost control of the National Assembly to what would have been an opposition qualified [two-thirds] majority, rather than accept the result of the election, Maduro used the Supreme Court to deprive four members of the opposition of their seats so that opposing parties no longer held a qualified majority,” Eissa-Barroso explained.

‘Maduro’s Decision Not To Accept The Result Of … 2015 Election’ Were The Beginning Of The Current Problems

“When the Assembly refused to accept this decision, the Court deprived the Assembly of its legislative powers and claimed them for itself until they could be transferred to the new Constituent Assembly. Maduro’s decision not to accept the result of the 2015 legislative election marked the beginning of the current political crisis,” Eissa-Barroso said, adding that “as for the 2018 presidential election, yes, Maduro won it fairly and relatively democratically … but his stronger challengers were excluded from running in the first place.”

‘The Very Real Achievements Of Chávez’s Government’

Eissa-Barroso believes part of the failure of US attempts to oust Maduro rest in the past achievements of Chávez.

“I think the more interesting issue here, is why US attempts to overthrow Maduro by providing political support to the right-wing opposition, and tightening economic restrictions, have failed. To do so, we need to remember the very real achievements of Chávez’s government in terms of redressing long standing economic and political inequality in Venezuela up to 2008 or 2010,” Eissa-Barroso said.

“The very tangible benefits that Chávez delivered to poorer sectors of the country’s population, alongside what turned out to be a very successful anti-American rhetoric, are what explain the sustained support for Maduro despite his unquestionably inept management of the economic and political situation since he came to power,” Eissa-Barroso added, noting that “an intrinsic dislike of the US as an exploitative and interventionist power is ingrained in large sectors of Latin America’s population, particularly the huge sectors which haven’t benefited from US investment, intervention and US-backed neo-liberal policies.”

L'articolo Why Juan Guaidó’s Multiple Coups in Venezuela All Failed proviene da InsideOver.

The government of Sudan has decided to seize the assets of the formerly ruling National Congress Party of toppled President Omar al-Bashir. The assets to be confiscated will include the headquarters of Bashir’s party in all Sudanese states, as well as the media institutions of the party also everywhere in Sudan. The media institutions contain several newspapers; TV channels; radio stations, and media companies. The decision to confiscate the assets of Bashir’s party dates back to December of last year when the new government of Sudan approved a law for the dissolution of the National Congress Party and the seizure of its assets.

New chapter

Disbanding the National Congress Party and the confiscation of its assets turns a new leaf in Sudan’s political life and gives this poor African nation a new political beginning, one free from the shadow of the man who ruled Sudan with iron and fire for decades in the past.

Bashir, who was overthrown by the military in April last year after months of mass protests, ruled Sudan for 30 years. He mounted the country’s saddle after a military coup that brought the Islamists, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, to power. During these 30 years, the mismanagement, corruption, and religious extremism of Bashir’s regime turned Sudan into a fearful country where poverty was common and freedom was rare.

The disappearance of Bashir’s party from Sudan’s political stage will open the door for eradicating the covert networks of power, operating within the Sudanese state, ones that continue to be controlled by Bashir’s backers.

Media arm

The Sudanese government has formed a special panel to survey and then disband or confiscate all the institutions affiliated to Bashir’s party, including the media arms of the party.

The panel contains members of the Sovereign Council, which was formed in August last year to oversee the work of the government and chart a new political future for Sudan, and the Forces of Freedom and Change, the main opposition coalition in Sudan during the months of protests against Bashir’s rule.

Panel member Taha Osman revealed that the controversial Ashorooq TV was among the media outlets suspended and confiscated for having links with Bashir’s regime and party. The panel also seized a media company called al-Andalus, which owned several TV channels that were also linked to Bashir, including Tiba or Thebes Channel. The confiscated assets also included companies that issued newspapers, such as the daily al-Rai al-A’am or Public Opinion newspaper.

Return

The confiscation of the assets of the National Congress Party came as party members make efforts to return to the Sudanese political scene. A leaked audio purportedly of a leading member of the party revealed attempts for the party’s return to politics.

Mahdi Ibrahim, also a leading member of Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood, says in the audio that the National Congress Party was blamed for all of Sudan’s problems. “I think we need to go back,” Ibrahim purportedly says in the audio which was aired by the Saudi news channel al-Arabiya on January 6. He suggests giving the National Congress Party a new name so that it can be more acceptable to the Sudanese public.

He even expresses confidence that the new party will be able to function as a magnet for Sudanese citizens.

“We were able to attract citizens to us at every stage and I think general conditions in Sudan now make this very possible,” Mahdi said.

Mahdi notes that the current political parties in Sudan are incapable of leading the African country while it struggles economically and politically in a region full of challenges and conflicts.

L'articolo Sudan Starts Cracking Down On Bashir’s Party proviene da InsideOver.

A leaked audio containing conversation involving Colombia’s senior diplomats stressed the failure of the US-backed effort to oust Venezuela’s incumbent President Nicolas Maduro, as Colombian new outlet Publimetro revealed as translated by Venezuelaanalysis Wednesday (November 27).

Colombian’s ambassador to the US Francisco Santos and the country’s foreign minister Claudia Blum concluded that the military coup is not a solution given that Venezuela’s military is behind Maduro.

“The solution is not a military coup because the military is not going to remove [Maduro]. Nor is the United States going to remove him at the point of an “I don’t know what,” Blum argued.

Covert action to support the opposition could be the best solution to support Venezuelan’s opposition, the ambassador told the foreign minister, adding that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is not playing a role to topple Maduro.

The leaked audio confirmed Latin America’s ideological polarization and the US foreign policy to support far-right regimes and to get rid of socialist leaders.

Venezuela’s prolonged crises: A Brief Overview

Venezuela, once an oil rich-country, has plunged into the worst economic crisis since the sharp decline in global oil prices in 2014. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the country’s hyperinflation could reach 10 million per cent in 2019.

Maduro was the vice president of Hugo Chavez, who passed away in 2013 from cancer. The former took office and had to deal with such an unexpected crisis that has forced millions of Venezuelans to seek refuge in neighbouring countries such as Ecuador and Venezuela.

The former bus driver consolidated his power by holding an election for the Constituent Assembly Council in 2017, aimed at limiting the power of the opposition-dominated National Assembly.

Such a move was condemned as authoritarian. Venezuelan’s Attorney General opposed Maduro’s policy and left for Colombia instead.

In May 2018, Maduro won the election by gaining around 67.7 per cent of the vote, while his contender Henri Falcon earned about 21 per cent after more than 90 per cent of the total votes were counted.

The result sparked controversy. Opposition groups, the US and its allies accused Maduro of rigging the vote, while Russia, China, and Iran backed the incumbent.

Juan Guaido, who did not participate in the election, declared himself as the interim president. The West supports him and most of the Western mainstream media outlets follow suit. Even the CNN report mistakenly said that the Head of National Council won the election after winning the January election (which never happened).

The situation in Venezuela has deteriorated following the US-backed embargoes. The United Nations (UN) slammed Washington for freezing assets of Venezuela’s government.

“I am deeply worried about the potentially severe impact on the human rights of the people of Venezuela of the new set of unilateral sanctions imposed by the US this week,” Head of the UN Human Rights  Commissioner Michele Bachelet said in a statement, adding that the sanctions have hit the most vulnerable groups of people.

Unlike Evo Morales, Venezuela’s military is behind Maduro

The recent situation in Bolivia is a reminiscence of what is happening in Venezuela. In early November, Bolivian President Evo Morales stepped down following the Organization of American States (OAS) report on vote manipulation in the election on October 20 that has triggered bloodshed.

Morales, the socialist politician and the first Bolivian president from the country’s indigenous group, fled to Mexico after being granted asylum and vowed to return for a fresh election. Far-right politician Jeanine Anez declared herself as the interim president.

Both Morales and Maduro have something in common. Both restrict freedom of expression and pressure opposition groups and dub Chavez as their mentor in the welfare-based economy. Also, both stand up to U.S. imperialism.

However, there is one stark difference: Unlike Morales, who lost support from Bolivian military and police during the month-long rallies, Venezuela’s military still supports Maduro despite the international pressure and worsening crises.

According to the Reuters special report, the strong influence of the military in Venezuela stemmed from the era of Hugo Chavez, who was also a former military officer. He controlled the military by intimidating it and bloating it.

Maduro relies heavily on the military. The Washington Post report revealed that Venezuela’s military officers enjoy perks and privileges such as promotion and also take bribes in money.

Selected military officers were handed over the country’s most lucrative sector: oil. A National Guard general and the army deputies now run the all-important national oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA, Reuters report said.

The US role in plotting regime changes in Latin America

The U.S. has a long history in intervening in Latin America’s politics. In 1823, the U.S. issued a Monroe Doctrine, aimed at preventing the establishment of any European colonies in Latin America.

According to Latin American historian at Columbia University John Henry Coatsworth, from 1898 to 1994, the US government had intervened 41 times to change governments in Latin America, 17 of which were direct interventions involving the U.S. military power, intelligence agents, and locals employed by the U.S. institutions.

Therefore, what’s happening Bolivia seems to surprise nobody given the U.S track record in Latin America. However, Maduro is not Morales.

L'articolo Colombian Diplomats Reveal The Failure of US-Backed Effort To Oust Maduro proviene da InsideOver.