The relationship between the United States and Turkey remains tense. After the Senate, by an overwhelming majority, declared Turkey’s behavior towards the Armenians to be genocide and also threatened to impose sanctions on Turkey, it seems to have deteriorated even further.

In response, President Erdogan has now threatened to close an essential airbase for the Americans in the region. “If necessary,” Turkey could shut down the US airbase Incirlik. In particular, if “measures such as sanctions” came into force against Turkey, an adequate answer would be given, Erdogan said candidly on Turkish television.

It is not the first time that there has been a dispute over Incirlik Air Force Base. For years, Turkey has repeatedly used the military base as a means of exerting pressure on its NATO partners and the US in particular.

Should Erdogan follow through on the threat, it could pose severe geostrategic problems for the United States – at least temporarily. The US, despite still operating around 800 military bases worldwide, consider Incirlik as one of its most important ones. However, a potential shutdown would also have implications for Turkey’s status as an ally.

To this day, the military airport on the outskirts of the southern Turkish city of Adana remains a central hub for the United States in the region. According to an agreement from 1954, the US and Turkey share the base, which is about 60 miles from the Syrian border. Besides 5000 military members, the base is also an atomic hub, as the US continues to store 50 nuclear weapons here.

The early years of its existence proved the value of the presence of the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, not only in countering the threat of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, by securing NATO’s southern flank but also having served as a deterrent for more than 60 years to possible Soviet and later Russian expansion. Moreover, Incirlik has been valuable during various crises in the Middle East, such as in Lebanon and Israel.

After September 11, 2001, the base once again became a focus of American operations as it was used as its primary hub for supplying US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. When Turkey joined the anti-IS coalition in 2014, Ankara offered Incirlik as a base for combat operations against the “Islamic State,” which had then brought large areas of Syria and Iraq under its control. Because of the geographical proximity to the areas in which the IS operates, Incirlik offers itself strategically favorably. As of late, the US had utilized Incirlik for a war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

However, the importance of Incirlik extends far beyond military interests. Incirlik has been symbolizing Turkey’s allegiance to the West and its partners. Closing it down for the US would not only severely strain Turkey’s relationship with the US but also likely put its NATO membership in question if not potentially in jeopardy.

Nonetheless, the continues threats from Ankara have led the Pentagon to look for a strategic shift. As a result, the US recently invested 150 million to enhance the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Other bases have also been enhanced in which could be an attempt to mitigate a future change from Incirlik to many other bases in the region. However, the threats are only one side of the coin, though they appear to reaffirm the transformation Turkey has been going through in recent years.

President Erdogan, Turkey’s increasingly autocratic leader, has turned away from both Europe and the United States and has instead attempted to establish a prosperous relationship with Russia’s President Putin. It becomes evident when looking at the fact that the two have met eight times this year already, but also due to Turkey’s decision not to purchase an air defense missile system from the US but Russia. Needless to say, that the latter is incompatible with NATO’s air defense system.

If Turkish were indeed to shut down the base, it would de facto have chosen a side with Russia and against its western allies, by tilting this highly important region in Russia’s favor.

Whether or not Erdogan is willing to take the risk of pledging his allegiance to Putin, remains to be seen as the gamble, without the US’ and international protection, could backfire eventually.

L'articolo Turkey’s Relationship with The US Continues to Deteriorate proviene da InsideOver.

The Arctic has been a theatre of conflict ever since World War II. Currently, it has become the epicenter of a Cold War 2.0, in which climate change could be the deciding factor.

Since the Cold War, the Arctic has been militarised by the superpowers. In the latest episode of actions and reactions in the arctic region, Norway is opening Tromsø and its harbor for US submarines, Norway’s Defense Minister Frank Bakke-Jensen confirmed. Besides widespread criticism from the population, Russia uttered its criticism also. Nevertheless, it is Russia that has arguably caused these developments.

Despite Norwegian statements that there was no intention to establish a permanent American military base in Tromsø, Russia considers a further expansion of NATO powers to be “against the previous practice of neighborly relations,” which would not remain without an answer, Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated in February this year, when the idea was first communicated.

In response to Russia’s concerns, Norwegian Defense Minister Bakke-Jensen stated that nothing had changed. The US mooring in Tromsø was a regular part of allied activities, and the international security regulations were complied with. The submarines that would be expected in Norwegian waters had no nuclear weapons, and the quay in Tromsø would only be needed 4-5 times a year. The 1975 Bratelli Doctrine, which prohibits the entry of warships with nuclear weapons on board, was therefore not being violated

The answer, the Russian Foreign Ministry referred to came in the form of what observers called the largest submarine operation in the North Atlantic since the end of the Cold War in October. At least ten submarines stationed on the Russian peninsula of Kola were involved in conduct that was continuously monitored by Norway and other NATO countries. Further Russian submarines had been discovered in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in what was not a mere military exercise but a demonstration of Russian strength. Moreover, it was meant to display the Russian capability of threatening the US coast via nuclear submarines.

And indeed, the Kremlin has significantly increased its activity in the Arctic. Abandoned bases from Soviet days have been reactivated, new bases have been built, and existing ones were expanded. In March 2017, Admiral Korolyov announced that Russia’s submarines would have reached 3,000 days of patrol in 2016, the same level that the underwater fleet had during the Cold War.

Russia has not been making a secret of the region’s relevance either. In Russia’s Maritime Doctrine of 2015, the Kremlin even considers the Arctic as a region of military conflict in the future. In this case, a potential military conflict is not warranted by traditional casus belli but on current environmental developments that have led to two Russian objectives:

First, climate change suggests that temperatures in the Arctic have increased drastically, with the results that a permanent Northwest and Northeast passage from Asia to America and Europe might open, which could significantly shorten the transport route. Moreover, Russia, which has always claimed parts of the Arctic, aims to levy service fees here. Second, the Arctic is likely to contain large quantities of raw materials, particularly gas, which could become available in the near future.

NATO has been monitoring Russia’s increased activity with concern and significantly expanded its scope of action in return. With the result that the total number of NATO nuclear submarines has decreased around the Arctic Circle also.

Moreover, NATO and its members, above all the United States, have set up new strategies that include increased military exercises and maritime patrols to counter the Kremlin’s maritime operations. Utilizing Tromsø will not be the last attempt in a Cold War 2.0 that is no longer just an arms race but a race for the Arctic and the future.

L'articolo The New Cold War: A Race for the Arctic proviene da InsideOver.

Since 1945, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt promised security in exchange for oil, the United States has maintained an intensive partnership with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. As part of geostrategic agendas, the partnership includes, inter alia, the training of Saudi Arabian military by the US Army. However, after Saudi trainees have killed American soldiers in two separate American locations, the program has sparked concerns and is now being partially suspended.

After the recent fatalities at US military bases, the Defense Department has taken immediate measures that aim to intensively examine the reasons that led to two separate terrorist attacks on US soil. More than 5200 foreign militaries are currently stationed across the United States; approximately 900 of them are Saudi military trainees.

Both nations have been close allies since 1945, particularly with regard to the respective relationships with Iran and the geostrategic balance in the Middle East. Only two years ago, this partnership was emphasized again when the Kingdom agreed to an arms deal worth billions of dollars.

In the current incident, a 21-year-old opened fire in a U.S. Army classroom, killing three American soldiers. Another eight people were injured in the attack before the police killed the perpetrator named Mohammed al-Shamrani. As it subsequently became known, the killer had published a manifesto on Twitter critical of the United States prior to the attack, in which he described the United States as the “nation of evil”.

The FBI is investigating the attack as an act of terrorism; however, the result of the investigation are still pending. Moreover, the FBI is investigating whether al-Shamrani was acting alone or as part of a network that was at higher risk. This worry does not seem unfounded, because the attack was the second within a few days. Shortly before the Florida terror, another Saudi soldier shot two US soldiers at Pearl Harbor Naval Base. Meanwhile, National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien stated that there was “no doubt” that the shooting was an act of terrorism.

In response, members of Congress have already demanded a temporary end to the Saudi Arabian soldier training program in the United States. Senator Lindsey Graham said that the program needed to be suspended until more precise details of what exactly had happened were available.

The Defense Department has reacted, not in the draconian way Graham sought. After Secretary of Defense Esper had ordered a review of the current situation, the Defense Department has suspended all training flights at military bases across the country as well as shooting range training and any other training outside of classroom studies for the Saudi students as a result.

Meanwhile, the Kingdom, dependant on complete reinstatement of the program, has pledged to take “whatever measures are necessary” to ensure that no other Saudi terrorist attack will occur on US soil, as another incident would likely result in the program’s total shutdown.

L'articolo US Military Halts Operational Training for Saudi Students proviene da InsideOver.

The US military prides itself on a global reach and it is undeniable that an expansive network of bases across the world has given America the ability to rapidly deploy forces to nearly any location. This expansive coverage was part of the reason Osama bin Laden cited for his orchestration of the September 11 terrorist attacks; as at the time, Saudi Arabia hosted U.S. troops at Prince Sultan Air Base which housed up to 60,000 soldiers until a complete withdrawal in 2003. Despite the removal of forces from the base, America still maintains forces at five Air Force bases across the nation, a sign that the U.S. never truly leaves a country. 

One of its more secretive bases is not in the Middle East, however, but on a small island in the heart of the Indian Ocean. Diego Garcia has been leased from the United Kingdom since 1966 and it has served as one of the most strategic locations for launching attacks during the Gulf War and War on Terror in Afghanistan and Iraq. Secrecy at the base is such that troops stationed there are forbidden from bringing their spouses with them and journalists are not permitted to visit. 

Slave Beginnings

Diego Garcia is part of the British Indian Ocean Territory. After the French initially settled the island in the late 18th century, the British assumed control following the Napoleonic Wars. The population in 1966 totaled a meager 924 persons who were previously slaves harvesting coconuts for the Chagos-Agalega Company, established by the French. The native people, Chagossians, were considered part of the Chagos Archipelago consisting of seven atolls before the British separated the administration of Diego Garcia. When it did so, it forced the residents from the island with most of them relocated to Mauritius and Seychelles. 

The forced expulsion of 1968 to 1973, drew condemnation from human rights advocates, but former inhabitants found little recourse as most international governing bodies have refused to take up the case. In 1972, Britain set aside £650,000 as compensation for 426 families deported to Mauritius, which the Mauritius government delayed distributing until 1978. After some outrage, £4 million in additional funding was provided, but it was not given out until nearly 10 years after the expulsion.

In their new countries, a large percentage of former Chagossians were homeless and destitute. Some petitioned to return to Diego Garcia, but for a decade, the British courts passed the case around. After the British High Court initially granted them the right to return, the British government used the Royal Prerogative to forbid them from ever returning. Following a few more rounds of court cases which flip-flopped the decision several more times, the ban has stood from as recently as 2016. 

In May, the United Nations ruled that the transfer of the islands to the British was illegal as it was made as a condition of Mauritius’ independence in 1965. Although the UN served an eviction notice to London, it carries no legal weight and would almost certainly never force the British to relinquish Diego Garcia, especially considering its partnership with the US Navy.

In 2010, a diplomatic cable leaked to Wikileaks revealed that the British government planned a “marine park” or “reserve” to protect the wildlife and environment of Diego Garcia. The true intention, according to the leaked cable, was that the government wanted to establish it to prevent former inhabitants from returning to the island. The cable came amid the continued court cases regarding the resettlement of the island.

Military Designs

After the British formalized the transfer of ownership of the island by purchasing it from Mauritius, the UK, and the US quickly set about building a military base which was the sole reason behind the expulsion of Chagossians. Now, the island is almost completely populated by a few thousand US soldiers and their military equipment. Its geographic location puts it squarely in the middle between Africa, the Middle East, Australia, and South Asia providing the perfect spot for deploying forces or refueling military craft. 

A runway over 3 kilometres long caters to B-1, B-52, and ultra-stealth B-2 bombers. A deep-water port allows for docking all sorts of naval craft from nuclear submarines to aircraft carriers. While the island serves as a massive armoury, there are also reportedly massive ships located in the coastal waters which contain enough supplies to mount small invasions including helicopters and tanks. 

Shrouded 

The need for such secrecy at a remote island raises questions, many of which may never be fully answered. However, some information has trickled out from time-to-time about Diego Garcia. Lawrence Wilkerson who served in the administration of former US President George W. Bush revealed that the US Central Intelligence Agency has top-secret prisons on the island which it has used in some cases for the torture of suspected terrorists. The imprisonment of foreign adversaries and their alleged torture is unusual as the island is only leased by America while the UK retains ownership. Traditionally, to avoid international issues, the US prefers to detain prisoners in bases on US-owned soil. Still, as the claims cannot be verified due to the vast shroud of secrecy, the British government is unlikely to face any serious repercussions. 

The US Navy once promoted the island base to recruits as “one of the world’s best-kept secrets” and indeed it has lived up to that claim. As it is rarely discussed, activities at the base are largely speculative with the juiciest revelation being the possibility of a C.I.A. interrogation facility on Diego Garcia. In all likelihood, the base is most-likely kept under wraps because of its critical role in Middle East conflicts. As a staging area for airstrikes including stealth missions, the US military views discretion as paramount. Perhaps more interesting than the current activities at Diego Garcia is its history of human rights abuses against native Chagossians. 

L'articolo Hidden Controversy: a US Navy Base in the Heart of the Indian Ocean proviene da InsideOver.