The United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s international port operator DP World signed an accord on December 23 to develop a new deep-water port in Senegal. The investment by the government-owned firm is seen as the latest bid by the Gulf state to counter arch-rival Turkey’s rising influence in the West African nation.

Details of the New Deep-Water Port Agreement

The leading company said it will invest $837 billion in the first phase to build the port in Ndayane, Senegal, which is located about two hours’ drive southeast of the capital of Dakar. This is the single largest private sector investment in the history of Senegal. This investment will be followed by another $290 million.

The first phase of the project will include a new container terminal with 840 meters of quay and a new 5 km marine channel designed to handle up to 366-meter vessels and capable of accommodating the largest container vessels in the world. Phase 2 will include the creation of 410 meters of additional container quay and a further dredging of the marine channel to handle even larger 400-meter vessels.

DP World said the new port “will further reinforce Dakar’s role as a major logistics hub and gateway to West and North West Africa”. The Emirati firm also plans to develop a special economic zone next to the Ndayane port to further strengthen the attractiveness of Senegal to foreign investors.

Why is the UAE Investing in Senegal?

The mega investment in Senegal was the latest move by the UAE to seek a strategic foothold in Africa. The Gulf state has used its global port operator to win concessions to develop commercial ports and logistics hubs at several sites across the continent, including Somaliland, Algeria, Mozambique and Djibouti.

Abu Dhabi has also built a series of military bases in the Horn of Africa that allow it to project power far beyond its borders, particularly into the Red Sea and the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Analysts view the latest Emirati move to pour investments into Senegal as part of its effort to counter Turkey’s rising role in Senegal and across the African continent. Turkey has been seeking to bolster its relations with Senegal in recent years within Ankara’s efforts to gain economic, political and cultural clout in Africa.

Turkey Has Been Busy Boosting Economic Relations with Senegal

In January 2020, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Dakar for talks with Senegalese officials to enhance bilateral relations. A business forum was held during the visit.

Trade volume between Turkey and Senegal has doubled sixteen-fold in the last decade, with leading Turkish firms undertaking significant infrastructure projects, including an international airport and a 50,000‑seat stadium. As of 2020, there were 29 projects worth $775-million that have been contracted to Turkish firms in the country.

Turkey’s education body, Maarif Foundation, has also opened a series of schools in Senegal as part of its charm campaign to enhance Ankara’s cultural influence in the West African nation. As part of this, the Turkish Development and Cooperation Agency (TIKA) also opened its first office in Western Africa in Dakar in April 2007. Ankara has also been offering scholarships to Senegalese students to study in Turkey since 1992.

Spotlight: UAE vs. Turkey

The UAE and Turkey are regional rivals and are engaged in several proxy conflicts across the Middle East region, including Libya, Syria, Yemen and the eastern Mediterranean.

In Libya, Turkey backs the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), while the UAE supports eastern commander Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan National Army is seeking to oust the GNA.

In Syria, the UAE backs the normalization of relations with the regime of Bashar al-Assad, whose forces have been fighting opposition forces in a deadly civil war since 2011. Ankara, meanwhile, supports opposition forces fighting to remove Assad from power. In Yemen, the UAE is part of a Saudi-led coalition that has launched a massive air campaign against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, which overran much of northern Yemen — including the capital Sanaa — in 2014.

In the eastern Mediterranean, the UAE has joined Greece, Cyprus, France and Egypt is opposing Turkish attempts to drill for energy resources in disputed waters in the region. Turkey sees the alliance as an attempt to exclude it from the gas equation in the Mediterranean.

While Turkey claims that the UAE was sowing chaos in the Middle East and Africa, Abu Dhabi accuses Ankara of pursuing neo-Ottoman imperial policies in the region.

The main cause of animosity between the two rivals is related to support for political Islam. Whereas Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) is ideologically related to the Islamist movement of the Muslim Brotherhood, the UAE and its allies such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt see the group as an extremist and terrorist threat, which Abu Dhabi has been determined to crush across the greater Arab region since 2011.

L'articolo Senegal Becomes New Focus of UAE-Turkey Rivalry in Africa proviene da InsideOver.

In a devastating blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s premiership, Likud Member of the Knesset (MK) Gideon Sa’ar — long seen as the Prime Minister’s nemesis in the Likud Party — announced he was quitting the party and will form his own right-wing party. Sa’ar’s new party will be called New Hope and he will run under its banner for the premiership in the next election, which looks likely to come soon.

The former leading Likud minister said his party had become a “tool for the personal interests of the person in charge, including matters relating to his criminal trial,” and has fostered a “cult of personality” around Netanyahu.

Sa’ar will also be resigning his Knesset seat because he felt it was right for him to step down as he was elected to parliament for Likud.

Sa’ar: ‘Replacing Netanyahu is the Order of the Hour’

Sa’ar, who failed in a leadership challenge against the current Prime Minister last year, said the current coalition had wasted its parliamentary support, and failed in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Replacing Netanyahu is the order of the hour,” he declared, adding that the dangers of overly protracted leadership create a moral hazard.

There are many reasons why Netanyahu should be worried about Sa’ar’s leadership bid. Israel elects its governments using proportional representation, which means that the number of seats a party receives in the Knesset is proportional to the number of votes it wins.

Sa’ar Could Pose a Direct Challenge to Netanyahu

On their own, New Hope might not receive a lot of votes, but Sa’ar’s new party will aim to join forces with other existing political factions before the next election. Derech Eretz MKs Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel — who quit the Blue and White list when they joined the Netanyahu-led government in May — may also join New Hope.

Israel looks likely to be heading towards its fourth election in two years. Last Wednesday, the Knesset gave initial approval to a bill to dissolve the parliament amid a budget crisis and call a new vote.

Though the polls currently suggest Likud would be the largest party after a fourth election, Sa’ar could split the vote for Netanyahu. The Prime Minister is fighting back against Naftali Bennett’s Yamina, which is the official opposition party. Bennett has made significant gains in recent polls and he also poses a challenge to Netanyahu.

Has Netanyahu’s Luck Run Out?

Despite this, Israelis have little faith in either Netanyahu or his Blue and White counterpart Benny Gantz. The Israel Voice Index survey shows that 62 percent of Israelis view the Prime Minister as having very low or moderately low credibility, while 60 percent say the same for the Defense Minister. These low levels of support for both figures will affect how both of their parties perform during a fourth election, especially when Bennett’s credibility is rising in some polls.

Many political analysts told The Times of Israel that the current Likud-Blue and White coalition might incline more toward a compromise in the light of the electoral threat posed by Sa’ar’s party. If both parties do this, it is unclear what impact this will have on the state budget, which is due to be rejected on December 23. Once it is rejected, an election would automatically be called for March 23. Either way, both Gantz and Netanyahu realize that Sa’ar poses a threat to their coalition.

Netanyahu has been fortunate enough to win the last three elections over the last two years. Until now, he has also been the favorite to win a fourth election. The Prime Minister has survived many different scenarios over the last two years and with Sa’ar now leading his own party, maybe Netanyahu’s luck is about to run out, but that may not be a bad thing given how much his credibility has been damaged recently.

L'articolo What Impact Will Israel’s New Right-Wing Party Have on Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

It took Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu twelve hours before congratulating President-elect Joe Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris. Even though the writing of President Donald Trump’s defeat had been on the wall, Netanyahu needed a moment to accept that the time of generous gifts and the president’s almost undivided attention has come to an end.

Certain policies affecting Israel are about to change, however, under Joe Biden, the Jewish state will not become irrelevant.

Netanyahu on Trump: ‘Israel’s Best Friend Ever in the White House’

Netanyahu, who did not get along well with President Obama, chose his words deliberately when he assessed what the Trump presidency meant to his country: “Israel’s best friend ever in the White House.”

And understandably so. For in the past four years, the Trump administration has strengthened the Jewish state’s position in the Middle East to an arguably unprecedented extent.

Trump advocated Israel’s sovereignty over the controversial Golan Heights, which the country captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War. Also, in contrast to Obama and Biden, Trump approved the building and expansion of Jewish communities in the West Bank. Trump also kept his campaign promise and moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Meanwhile, his Middle East plan, the “deal of the century,” was also widely seen as beneficial to Israel.

Trump’s Crackdown on the Palestinian Authority and Brokering of Arab-Israeli Peace Deals

The White House also demonstratively suspended its financial contributions to the Palestinian Authority and its share of United Nations aid to Palestine. Most recently, Trump brokered “normalization agreements” with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, strengthening Israel’s position and further isolated the Palestinians.

Hence it does not come as a surprise that Israel is mainly pro-Trump. Indeed, according to a National Democracy Institute survey, 70 percent of Jewish Israelis had wanted another term for him.

Biden is a Dedicated Supporter of Israel

However, not all is lost for the Jewish state. Those who feel Biden could engage in a spree of revocation, reversing all of Trump’s policies, or even question America’s unconditional support for Israel do not seem to know the President-elect and his devotion to Israel.

Biden has already made it clear that he will not reverse the decision on America’s embassy in Jerusalem. Nor will the Golan Heights be up for discussion.

Biden’s commitment to Israel goes so far that he applauded the agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. He called the deal a “historic breakthrough” and pledged to convince more countries in the region to sign similar agreements.

What About the Two-State Solution?

However, Biden and Harris do support the two-state solution. The annexation plans of parts of the West Bank, which Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had, should thus be off the table under his administration.

Nonetheless, Netanyahu does not need to fear any demands of significant concessions to the Palestinians from Biden, as Obama attempted.

Biden made this clear during the Democratic primaries when Senator Bernie Sanders – a notorious critic of Israel – suggested that the US use its Israeli support as leverage and seek concessions in favor of the Palestinians.

Biden’s answer was concise and unmistakable, calling Sanders’ idea “bizarre.”

How Will Biden’s Policies Toward Israel Differ from Trump’s?

However, Biden’s policies will differ regarding a reversal of the Trump-instigated withdrawal of economic and humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. Moreover, Biden has also pledged to reopen the US Consulate in East Jerusalem and permit representation of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in Washington.

Accordingly, Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas quickly announced that he could hardly wait to work with Joe Biden.

Assessing the Biden-Netanyahu Relationship

What will also likely change is the relationship between Netanyahu and the White House. While Biden and Netanyahu have known each other for over 40 years, both Biden and the Democratic Party have not forgotten how Netanyahu fully sided with the Republican party in recent years. Netanyahu also openly supported Mitt Romney in 2012 and railed alongside Republicans against the Iran nuclear deal during his speech in Congress in 2015.

Netanyahu’s open dislike of Obama broke one basic rule of Israeli and American politics: fostering consistently good relations with Republicans and Democrats, like all Israeli prime ministers before him.

However, a US paradigm shift away from unconditional support for Israel towards prioritizing the Palestinians is as inconceivable under Biden as it would have been under Trump, even though the tone and diplomatic approach are about to change.

Moreover, with Biden’s pledge to tackle the coronavirus and help the economy regain traction, the new administration’s focus will undoubtedly shift towards the domestic side for the foreseeable future.

L'articolo What Does the Biden Presidency Mean for Israel? proviene da InsideOver.

In what has been a historic year for Israel following the normalization of relations with Bahrain and the UAE, the Israeli Government is now looking to end its long dispute with Lebanon over its maritime border.

Negotiations Over the Maritime Border

US officials mediated in the negotiations, which took place at the base of a UN peacekeeping force in the Lebanese town of Naqoura.

However, both sides have insisted that they have not normalized any ties.

Despite this, the most positive outcome from a potential agreement between Jerusalem and Beirut would be for both sides to be able to exploit potentially lucrative natural gas fields under the Mediterranean Sea.

The US under the leadership of President Donald Trump has been instrumental in ensuring that these talks happened on Wednesday. Since the US President was elected almost four years ago, the US has been mediating discussions between Lebanese and Israeli officials.

These Talks are a Foreign Policy Win for Donald Trump

The first round of talks were attended by US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker and the US ambassador to Algeria John Desrocher.

The negotiations lasted for only an hour, but both governments agreed to continue their discussions on October 28, which shows that the US can still have a positive impact on Middle Eastern politics.

The so-called Blue Line boundary was drawn up by the UN after Israeli forces withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, ending 22 years of occupation.

But following the month-long war that killed 1,190 Lebanese citizens and 163 Israelis in 2006, the ceasefire ended.

Both Lebanon and Israel have technically been at war since the Arab-Israeli conflict of 1948-49, but it appears unlikely that Lebanon will be unable to maintain its hostile stance toward Israel as the economic impact of the coronavirus and political turmoil continue to paralyze the entire nation. There are many benefits in store for both Israel and Lebanon if they can end their maritime border dispute on October 28.

Both Netanyahu and Diab Would Benefit Politically From Peace

Even though the timings of the talks are no coincidence as Trump hopes to use them to show how competent he is at handling US foreign policy, such a deal would also benefit both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanon’s current Prime Minister Hassan Diab.

Netanyahu is facing pressure at home due to his handling of the coronavirus and a forthcoming corruption trial. There is also the possibility that Israel may face a fresh set of elections in the near future, which means that the Israeli Prime Minister needs to convince his electorate beforehand that he is competent at handling foreign relations.

Diab also faces domestic and international pressure to reform Lebanon’s constitution following the Beirut explosion. He is also facing a prolonged economic crisis and being able to access billions of dollars’ worth of natural resources would be a significant boost to both the Israeli and Lebanese economies. According to Israel’s Energy Ministry, Lebanon could extract gas worth up to $6 billion annually from the disputed maritime area.

These Talks Could Help Israel and Lebanon Resolve Other Disputes

Wednesday’s talks failed to address the main bones of contention between Israel and Lebanon – the Shebaa Farms dispute, Hezbollah’s missile stockpile, and Israeli accusations that Hezbollah has violated UN Security Council resolutions by building covert weapons depots and military positions in southern Lebanon. But Shimrit Meir, an Israeli columnist and expert on Arab affairs, told Foreign Policy that the moment nations are tied together can be a de-escalating factor. This means that there could be progress on these issues in the future.

Most importantly, the strengthening of economic ties between Israel and Lebanon will be an important first step to help end a conflict between two countries that has lasted for over 70 years, and this could result in long-term peace in the Middle East.

The first round of US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon were truly historic in nature. Let us hope that they lead to further progress on October 28.

L'articolo The Benefits of Israel and Lebanon Resolving Their Maritime Border Dispute proviene da InsideOver.

In a surprise move by Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s government has imposed a total ban on importing goods and a freeze on bilateral trade exchanges with Turkey. Although the real reason behind this Saudi step is totally clear, it also reflects a high degree of dissatisfaction with a major regional trade partner and is bound to have some serious economic as well as political ramifications on Turkey’s ailing economy and on President Recep Erdogan‘s internal posture.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey have often described their economic ties and trade exchanges as being strong and steadfast, as reflected by the magnitude of their $8 billion USD annual trade relationship. This is bolstered by huge bilateral investments and the sheer numbers of Saudi tourists who flock to Turkish resorts every year, as well as the large Turkish workforce operating on some key Saudi projects. Leaders of both nations often exchange visits and a number of economic and trade agreements were signed during King Salman of Saudi Arabia’s visit to Turkey in April 2016, and Erdogan’s visit to Riyadh in July 2017.

What Happened Since 2017 That Led to the Saudi Ban?

A number of incidents took place over the past few years that have influenced relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both politically as well as economically. Most notable of those incidents were the failed coup attempt against Erdogan in 2016 – Ankara accused some Arab Gulf regimes, mainly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, of supporting the coup attempt.

Then came the brutal assassination of Saudi journalist turned dissident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi General Consulate in Istanbul on October 2, 2018 by agents of the Saudi government.

Ankara’s siding with and crucial support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s arch enemy and key Arab rival and GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) member, Qatar, under a stifling embargo from its “sisterly” nations since June 2017, has added fuel to the raging fire of regional rivalry between Turkey on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the other.

Both Riyadh and Ankara have cherished the role of leading the so-called “moderate” Islamic world for decades; a rivalry that has reached new and unprecedented levels under Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince MBS’s firm grip on power in recent years. Both nations are deeply involved in a number of ongoing regional crises, conflicts and wars, from Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya to Yemen and beyond.

How Significant is Trade Between Turkey and Saudi Arabia?

At its golden era in 2012, the trade balance between Ankara and Riyadh stood at $8 billion USD per year, however it started to decrease over the following years. Before the Saudi ban, it was believed to stand at $6 billion a year; still an indication of the large bilateral trade between the two countries. Saudi imports from Turkey totaled $3.5 billion, while its exports to Ankara stood at $2.5 billion, bringing the overall trade balance between them over the past eight years to over $50 billion. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have often expressed their aspiration to bring their bilateral trade size over the next few years to $10 billion a year, however that was before everything was brought to a sudden halt by Riyadh’s latest move.

While only 11 Saudi companies existed on Turkish soil in 2011, recent studies estimated that some 1,000 Saudi companies operate in Turkey where they have invested some $6 billion in an array of solo projects as well as some joint ventures. The sharp rise in Saudi as well as Gulf nations’ investments in Turkey came only after Ankara had amended its laws in 2012 allowing foreign investors to own their own projects in Turkey. (As Syria’s ambassador to Turkey, I was part of the intense negotiations between Arab ambassadors and Turkish authorities on this issue at the time).

Key Sectors of Saudi Investment in Turkey

One quarter of Saudi companies in Turkey, 249 in all, focus their investment in the thriving real estate sector where they have invested over $11 billion so far. Saudi Arabia retreated last year from the 12^th to 17^th place on the list of foreign capital investors in Turkey. It was not all Ankara’s fault; the decline was a result of Saudi Arabia’s own economic hardships exacerbated by the colossal cost of its war efforts in Yemen, for the fifth year running, and elsewhere.

Tourism is another sector where Saudis have invested heavily in Turkey over the past eight years, with over 650,000 Saudi tourists flocking into Turkey last year alone. However, the number of Saudi tourists who visited Turkey in 2018 was 35% higher than that of last year, despite the fact that many Saudis seem to have fallen in love with Turkey and have chosen to settle there, mainly in Istanbul, Trabzon, Antalya, Bursa and elsewhere.

On the other side, some 100.000 Turks work and live in Saudi Arabia which is the sixth most common destination for Turkish expats. They are spread over variety of projects, ventures, and activities including construction, restaurants, fashion, hotels and medical care. How much will they be affected by the recent Saudi ban and its ramifications remains to be seen. The only definite outcome so far, is that Saudi-Turkish ties appear to be taking an economic nosedive that is bound to affect bilateral and regional politics at least for the foreseeable future.

L'articolo Economic and Political Ramifications of the Saudi Ban on Turkish Imports proviene da InsideOver.

The Emir of Kuwait has died. Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah died on Tuesday at the age of 91. The monarch has ruled the oil-rich state on the Persian Gulf, which borders Iraq and Saudi Arabia, since 2006. He was considered one of the most experienced diplomats in the Arab world and tried for decades to improve the balance of power in the Gulf region.

‘Today We Lost a Big Brother’

“Today we lost a big brother and a wise and loving leader … who spared no effort for Arab unity,” Jordan’s King Abdullah II wrote on Twitter in Arabic.

The de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan tweeted that: “Sheikh Sabah epitomized wisdom, tolerance, and peace and he was a great pioneer of Gulf cooperation,” while UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the emir “an extraordinary symbol of wisdom and generosity, a messenger of peace, a bridge-builder”.

Sheikh Sabah’s Long Political Career

Sheikh Sabah was previously prime minister and foreign minister for four decades before he succeeded his cousin Sheikh Saad al-Abdullah al-Salim al-Sabah.

In terms of foreign policy, he attached great importance to maintaining close ties with the United States. As an emir, he had to contend with the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring protests and falling oil prices. With a population of 4.8 million, including 3.4 million foreign workers, Kuwait has the sixth-largest known oil reserves in the world.

The emir, known as a top diplomat and a peacemaker attempted to shield Kuwait from the conflicts in the region. His foreign policy relied on a moderate, balanced attitude, which also entailed amicable relations with Iran, to the suspicion of Saudi Arabia and various other states in the region.

Sabah also attempted to defuse the blockade of Qatar led by Riyadh and decided not to intervene in the civil war in Syria but instead held several donor conferences on humanitarian aid. However, while the Arab world is currently opening up to Israel, normalization of diplomatic ties with Israel remains deeply unpopular within Kuwait. There is substantial support for the Arab world’s historical position to insist on a solution to the Palestinian cause before making any diplomatic concessions to Israel.

A Serene Ruler Who Stabilized Kuwait

Followers considered the emir as a serene ruler who stabilized Kuwait in a region frequently shaken by unrest and military violence. The emirate’s parliament has the most powers of any elected body in the Gulf region, and opposition MPs openly criticize the Sabahs.

However, the ruling family has retained full control of the critical government and executive posts, and the emir has the last word on political affairs. He also has the power to override or dissolve parliament and hold elections. Sabah dissolved parliament or reshuffled his cabinet several times after lawmakers attempted to question or cast votes of no confidence in high-ranking ministers, including members of the ruling family. Critics have argued that freedom of expression suffered under Sheikh Sabah, with dozens of opposition activists and bloggers arrested in recent years on charges of defaming the emir.

His country’s greatest crisis occurred in 1990 when Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and occupied the nation for seven months. While fleeing with other Kuwaiti officials to neighboring Saudi Arabia, Sabah collapsed and lost consciousness during a particularly stormy meeting of Arab leaders. On February 24, 1991, US troops and their allies stormed into Kuwait and the occupation ended 100 hours later.

Sabah was sent to the hospital for an operation in July. However, details on his health or possible complaints remained confidential. After his death, the 83-year-old Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Jabir al-Sabah, a half-brother of the deceased, was sworn in as his successor. The Crown Prince had recently already taken over the duties of the emir and pledged to seek stability among fractious, powerful neighbors on Tuesday.

L'articolo Kuwaiti Ruler Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah Has Died proviene da InsideOver.

Most of Saudi Arabia’s history has been dominated by authoritarian systems of government, from caliphs to tribal leaders and kings. Democratic institutions such as a parliamentary body have never had a chance in the Arab kingdom. That history notwithstanding, a group of Saudis now residing in a slew of states across the globe have created a political party aimed at reforming Riyadh’s political system.

Introducing the National Assembly Party

According to Reuters, notable members of the recently formed National Assembly Party (NAAS) include Yahya Assiri, who leads UK-based Saudi rights group ALQST, Abdullah al-Awdah, the son of jailed Islamist preacher; esteemed Islamic scholar Saeed bin Nasser al-Ghamdi and Shi’ite activist Ahmed al-Mshikhs. 

Many of these individuals have been exiled by the Saudi government and now hold residence in the UK, US, and Canada. The budding group of politicians are therefore operating NAAS in absentia, making it even more unlikely that they will find success in their far-fetched goals, which include Riyadh establishing a parliament and introducing Constitutional separation of powers between the executive, legislative, and judicial branches.

As difficult as it is to imagine the Saudi monarchy relinquishing any sliver of power, it’s worth noting that Saudis are expressly forbid from even forming political parties such as NAAS. Other Saudis have previously attempted to do so from within the kingdom, but he monarchy stifled their plans in their infancy, arresting political party organizers on two occasions – first in 2007, then in 2011.

Given the astronomical odds of success, why even bother forming NAAS?

Planting Seeds For Future Change

“We are announcing the launch of this party at a critical moment to try to save our country… to institute a democratic future and to respond to our people’s aspirations,” Assiri, the party’s general-secretary, told Agence France-Presse.

Fellow party member Madawi al-Rasheed explained, “The timing is very important… the climate of repression is only increasing.” NAAS will not, however, call for protests in Saudi Arabia, she emphasized. That decision is likely a practical one as much as it is political.

Protest movements aimed at democratizing Middle Eastern governments have a lackluster track record that inspires little confidence. Following the Arab Spring that involved nearly 20 states including Saudi Arabia, only a handful actually emerged with sustained democratic reforms. For the most part, one of two outcomes happened: monarchies, such as Jordan, remained in power, but offered some economic and political concessions; or governments were overthrown with their states devolving into more conflict, like civil war. 

In short, NAAS organizers understand little will come from inspiring an uprising that will surely be doomed to failure. Instead, NAAS was founded with the intention of planting seeds for slow, long-term changes — ideas that could take generations to become fixtures in the Arab kingdom.

MbS Gave Hope For Progressive Ideals

One need only look at how long it took the kingdom to reverse bans on women driving and cinemas. From 1957 to 2018, women were forbidden from driving in Saudi Arabia – the only state in the world to enforce such a measure. 

After the prolific rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, commonly referred to as MbS, Riyadh started to quickly change. International observers and Saudi nationals alike were drawn to MbS’ openness for change. During a 60 Minutes interview, the Saudi heir even lamented on how he desires a return to pre-1970s Saudi Arabia when women walked freely without wearing abayas. 

Riyadh Has a Long Way To Go

In this new age of progressive reform in Saudi Arabia, NAAS wants to push the envelop further. However, as progressive as MbS can be, he can be equally as brutal clamping down on threats to his power.

“The government constantly practices violence and repression, with mounting numbers of political arrests and assassinations, increasingly aggressive policies against regional states, enforced disappearances and people being driven to flee the country,” NAAS said in a statement.

MbS has targeted high-profile critics of his government, as illustrated the October 2018 murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, an American resident and Saudi national. 

Riyadh has one of the world’s worst records on human rights and an incredibly centralized power structure whereby the crown controls every aspect of government including the media and judiciary branch. Under MbS, freedom of expression has come under attack by the monarchy as Saudi Arabia attempts to curtail any notions of democratic life.

The Time Is Now

Judging by current events the future of Saudi Arabia is bipolar. On the one hand, MbS has breathed modern life and progressively, direly needed reforms into his state. On the other hand, enjoying these reforms requires submitting to the crown prince’s conception of complete and total control of all life within the kingdom. 

NAAS was created as a challenge to that idea and although its members can’t possibly realistically expect it to succeed in forcing constitutional changes, it is taking shape at an interesting point in time. The Saudi monarchy rose to power on the back of oil revenues, which led to a storied alliance with the US. 

But the sun is setting on oil empires, an observation made clearer this year as demand plummeted. MbS has a plan to reshape the Saudi economy, known as Vision 2030, but will the world buy into a state that has no glimmer of democratic institutions? Elsewhere across the globe, authoritarian leaders wield near complete power, but their people still some form of legislative representation. Take China, Russia, Iran, Jordan, Egypt, almost any other state and you will find political parties at the national level.

The goals of NAAS may take generations to achieve, but the time is now, as its members say, to put the wheels in motion. For right now, the party operates from outside the kingdom’s borders, but one day political parties may become a reality in Riyadh.

L'articolo Saudi Dissidents Create Political Party to Oppose Riyadh’s Monarchy proviene da InsideOver.

On Tuesday, the White House celebrated the creation of diplomatic relations between Bahrain, the UAE, and Israel. It is another foreign policy success. Within a few weeks, both the UAE and Bahrain agreed to establish relations with Israel. However, without Saudi Arabia, neither the United Arab Emirates nor Bahrain would have concluded their agreements with Israel.

Saudi Arabia’s Growing Closeness with Israel

Riyadh has initiated a process of slow but steady normalization with Israel. The latter can be noticed by occurrences that used to be unthinkable in the monarchy. For instance, the Imam of the Great Mosque of Mecca demanded a dialogue with non-Muslims, particularly Jews, in a sermon. He reminded his audience that the Prophet Muhammad sought good relations with Jews and other non-Muslims. These words may appear ordinary.

However past sermons in Saudi Arabia have had a very different ring to them, including regular calls for Israel’s destruction. Another example of the paradigm shift in Saudi Arabia can be seen in a media that openly criticizes the Palestinians – also a novelty.

These are not coincidental occurrences but preparations for establishing ties with the Jewish state. Riyadh’s green light for Bahrain and UAE is the best validation of this hypothesis. After all, both are close allies of the kingdom and rely on Saudi Arabia’s support in Bahrain’s case.

Bahrain Becomes Fourth Arab State to Recognize Israel

After the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan, Bahrain is the fourth Arab state to recognize Israel. The transformation from anti-Semitism and calls for the destruction of Israel is not without geopolitical self-interest, however. The Gulf Arabs see an alliance with Israel as insurance against their common enemy and the region’s main threat: Iran. For Saudi Arabia, the Shiite mullah’s regime is moreover the main rival for regional hegemony and has repeatedly provoked Saudi Arabia, for example, in Yemen due to its support of the Houthis.

The parallels between Israel and Saudi-Arabia are apparent: both are declared enemies of Iran. Mohammed Bin Salman and Benjamin Netanyahu are allies in their quest to isolate and counter Iran in its malevolent conduct. New allies are becoming increasingly crucial to Saudi Arabia since the protection of America, which has officially existed since 1951, may alter over the next years. MBS is hence more inclined than ever to approach Israel, albeit in well-measured steps.

The New Generation of Arab Leaders Sees Israel More Objectively

So far, however, the Gulf state’s traditional loyalty to the Palestinians and emotions the Six-Day War with Israel has left behind ever since, shaped the older generation of influential Arab politicians such as King Salman. Several times The king has made his proclivity for the classic Arab position towards Israel apparent. However, the current generation, such as Mohammed bin Salman or UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed are not as bound by old sentiments nor traditional hate towards Jews and thus are inclined to disregard Palestinian interests I exchange for geopolitical and economic stability in the region.

However, this does not mean that MBS can disregard his father’s position nor public opinion entirely. He has major plans for his country and is dependent on the king and society’s support. A society that, for the aforementioned reasons, has been indoctrinated with hostility towards Israel for decades.

Gestures, such as the sermon given by Abdulrahman al-Sudais, serve the goal of slowly getting the Saudis used to the idea of ​​a peace agreement with Israel.

Which Country Will Recognize Israel Next?

Sudan or Oman could be the next Arab countries to recognize Israel. Even below the threshold of official treaties, normalization between the Muslim world and Israel continues. Saudi Arabia opens its airspace to flights between Israel and the UAE. According to Israeli media reports, there could soon be direct flights between Israel and Morocco for the first time.

With Saudi Arabia still being the custodian of the holiest Islamic sites of Mecca and Medina, Riyadh has invaluable influence in the Arab-Muslim world and thus remains the key to lasting peace between the Jews and Muslims in the Middle East.

The accords that have been signed are a significant step in the right direction, and despite all controversies, Saudi-Arabia has been one of if not the leading facilitator of progress. Its own peace agreement with Israel has become more likely than ever.

L'articolo Saudi Arabia: the Hidden Key to Peace in the Middle East proviene da InsideOver.

In recent weeks, the Trump administration has made rapid progress on normalization of relations between certain countries that have been hostile to one another for decades.

Firstly, US President Donald Trump signed a deal that normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, which was then followed by a deal that strengthened economic ties between Kosovo and Serbia.

And now, the US President has done it again by announcing a landmark deal to normalize relations between Bahrain and Israel.

This is a Historic Achievement for Trump

For decades, most Arab states have boycotted Israel, insisting that they would only establish ties once the Palestinian dispute had been resolved.

Bahrain has become the fourth country in the Middle East – following Egypt, Jordan and the UAE – to recognize Israel since its founding in 1948.

Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both welcomed the deal, as did the UAE.

However, both Palestine and terrorist group Hezbollah were quick to condemn the agreement.

This is a historic achievement for Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who has been instrumental in forging these deals for his father-in-law in his capacity as senior advisor to the US President.

The Bahrain-Israeli Deal Could Affect the US Election

The Bahrain-Israeli deal will affect Trump domestically. Although the latest opinion polls suggest that the US President is on course to lose this year’s election, Middle Eastern politics could have an impact on specific groups of voters that the Republicans need to win over if they have any hope of ensuring Trump returns to the White House in November.

A Pew research poll in July showed 8 in 10 white evangelicals still intend to vote for Trump. Mark Tooley, editor of Providence, a journal that focuses on Christianity and foreign policy, believes that the US President’s foreign policy successes will convince those who were “tottering on the edge that God’s support remains.”

Time reports that Tony Perkins, President of the Family Research Council, one of the largest evangelical advocacy organizations in the US, says that Trump’s Middle East accord that was signed earlier in the year is unlikely to dissuade many evangelicals from voting for Trump, even if Israel suspended its annexation of Palestine.

A major Jewish donor also told Time that peace in the Middle East “is a real feather in his (Trump’s) cap with the Jewish voters.”

Iran and Turkey Will Feel Increasingly Isolated

The significant impact of the Bahrain-Israeli deal will be felt in the Middle East. The pact will isolate both Iran and Turkey further.

The growing threat from Tehran has no doubt pushed many nations who used to be hostile toward Israel further into Jerusalem’s arms before the Palestinian dispute has been fully resolved. Growing insecurity made it easier for Trump to sign peace deals with both the UAE and Bahrain.

There will now be increased pressure on Saudi Arabia to normalize its relations with Israel too.

The Times of Israel suggests that Bahrain would not have proceeded with the Bahrain-Israeli deal without Riyadh’s blessing.

Will Saudi Arabia Normalize Relations with Israel?

The Saudi Government allowed an Israeli El Al jet to fly over Saudi Arabia to the UAE for the first time on August 31, but it is unlikely that Riyadh will be normalizing relations with Israel soon.

Despite this, the more Iran poses a security threat to the Saudi kingdom, the more likely they are to forge their own deal with Netanyahu, particularly if the US pushes for one behind closed doors.

Countries that cut off their ties with Israel in the past may be persuaded to reforge them again because of the increasing threat that both Turkey and Iran pose to the Middle East. For example, in 1999, Mauritania established diplomatic relations with Israel, but severed ties again in 2010.

Either way, the Bahrain-Israeli agreement ensures that there may be more deals like this one in the future as long as Iran and Turkey continue to push many Middle Eastern nations closer together.

L'articolo What Impact Could Trump’s Bahrain-Israeli Peace Deal have? proviene da InsideOver.

Lebanon has been in turmoil since a massive explosion rocked the Beirut port on August 4. This blast, which was blamed on a neglected stockpile of ammonium nitrate, has shaken the tiny country to its core. It has caused widespread destruction in a country which was already reeling under a crippling economic crisis.

Lebanon’s Power-Sharing System

The disastrous explosion has triggered a wave of public anger at political corruption and state ineptitude. This was mainly blamed on the country’s sect-based political system that laid the foundation of Lebanon as a multi-confessional state.

In 1943, Lebanon’s different sects reached a power-sharing agreement that guarantees the representation of every sectarian group. This agreement has shaped Lebanon to this day.

Under this pact, Maronite Christians agreed to accept an Arab identity for Lebanon, instead of a Western one, while Muslims agreed to abandon their demand to unite with Syria.

According to this power-sharing arrangement, the president and army chief must be a Maronite Christian and the prime minister a Sunni Muslim. The agreement also stipulates that the Speaker of the Parliament must be a Shia Muslim, his deputy and the deputy prime minister Greek Orthodox Christians and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces a Druze.

The flaws of this sectarian political system have been partly blamed for the country’s civil war that broke out in 1975. This war initially began as a conflict between Christian militias and Palestinian groups allied with Lebanese Muslim factions.

It quickly developed into a devastating conflict that lasted 15 years.

An Inconclusive Peace

Guns fell silent in Lebanon under the 1989 agreement that was negotiated in the Saudi city of Taif. This agreement has reshuffled the country’s sectarian-based political system by transferring many presidential powers to a cabinet divided evenly between Christians and Muslims. The agreement, however, failed to fix the flaws of the sectarian political system. Rather, it led to a divisive tension between Lebanon’s two main Muslim communities, the Sunnis and Shias.

The Sunni-Shia frictions sharpened after Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, a Sunni, was assassinated in a massive car-bomb explosion in 2005. Many Lebanese pointed the finger at the Shia group Hezbollah over the assassination. A UN tribunal, however, ruled earlier this month that there was no evidence that the leadership of the Shia group was involved in Hariri’s killing.

The Hague-based court, however, found a Hezbollah member guilty in the killing. The Sunni-Shia rift further deepened with the outbreak of the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions and the civil war in next-door Syria.

Lebanon is at its Breaking Point

Living under this system of political sectarianism for 77 years, Lebanon is now at a breaking point, with its economy collapsing and its government hardly functioning. And as the country’s sectarian-based pact failed to resolve Lebanon’s troubles, it has become a necessity to draft a new pact on non-sectarian lines to help prevent the country from collapsing.

Drafting a new political pact in Lebanon was first proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, the first foreign leader to visit Lebanon after the port explosion. “I will propose a new political pact in Lebanon, and I will be back in September, and if they can’t do it, I’ll take my political responsibility,” Macron said as he was greeted by crowds during his visit to the blast-stricken country.

The French leader also called for urgent reforms to resolve the country’s problems. “Lebanon will continue to sink. What is also needed here is political change. This explosion should be the start of a new era,” Macron said.

The Urge for a Hopeful Future

The urgent need for a new political order in Lebanon was very evident when thousands of Lebanese – frustrated with their country’s political elite – signed a petition to put Lebanon under the mandate of France, the former colonial power.

Sensing the growing public anger over their failure to handle the country’s affairs, Hezbollah said it is “open” to discuss the French proposal for a new political pact in the country. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said his group’s consent was, however, conditional on the approval of all Lebanese sects.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun also backed the French call for a new political pact. He admitted that, “The current sectarian system is no longer valid and has become an obstacle in the way of any progress or reform.”

Nonetheless, it remains to be seen whether these calls for a new political pact would be translated into action, or if they will remain merely wishful thinking.

L'articolo Lebanon Needs a New Pact to Rebuild its Broken Political System proviene da InsideOver.