Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is facing pressure to act swiftly after hundreds of people protested in towns and cities across the nation on Monday night against lockdown restrictions. These restrictions include the 6 p.m. closure of bars and restaurants and the complete closure of gyms, swimming pools, cinemas, and theaters.

Business owners held another demonstration outside the Italian Parliament on Tuesday and more are planned in the coming days.

Conte is facing pressure on two fronts: members of his ruling coalition and opposition parties are urging him to ease the restrictions, even as scientists warn that they might not be enough to combat escalating coronavirus infections.

The rescue package is worth approximately €5 billion and will help all businesses and workers affected by the measures.

Government Support Packages are Not the Only Answer

Government support packages only provide short-term economic relief. As Paul Johnson argues for the Institute for Fiscal Studies, subsidy schemes can support the wages and living standards of a lot of people, but economic shocks can have permanent effects because there are jobs and businesses that cannot be saved in the long-term. It can take a long time for new ones to appear.

Furthermore, Italy’s slow and obstructive bureaucratic system caused companies to wait months to receive funding. According to The Guardian, many workers are still waiting for payments owed as part of Italy’s original support scheme. If Italy is to move forward once the COVID-19 crisis is over, then it is clear that Italy’s bureaucracy needs rapid and significant reform in the near future.

Italian Politicians Need More Imaginative Solutions

But Italian politicians need more imaginative solutions to solve their country’s long-term economic problems once the lockdown is over. Desmond Lachman, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in The Hill that Italy’s prospects of a quick post-coronavirus economic recovery are slim. Whilst the country is stuck in the single currency, it does not have its own monetary or exchange rate policy to jump-start its economy.

Italy’s exit from the eurozone could become a reality in the future. According to a survey by the Tecné Agency, 49 percent of Italians are in favor of withdrawal from the EU. Politico‘s Joseph Stiglitz said quitting the eurozone will benefit the Italian economy by providing politicians with control over interest and exchange rates. It also means that they can devalue their own currency, something that the eurozone prevents them doing right now. However, Italy will have to wait for the outcome of the next general election before it quits the eurozone. There are other measures Italian politicians can implement in the near future.

Startups Will Play a Vital Role in Boosting Italy’s Economic Growth

Dimitri B. Papadimitriou et al of The Levy Economics Institute said that the Italian public sector should increase the number of workers by about 40 percent. They would like that to be paid for by increasing taxes on the wealthy. Yet such a measure would more than likely push Italy’s wealth creators out of the country at a time when they really need them. The evidence that increasing taxes on the wealthy boosts tax revenues is also pretty inadequate. Italy already has a €29.3 billion deficit and throwing more money at the public sector will add to that debt.

The Italian Government should encourage more startups to relocate to the South of Italy. EU-Startups suggests that 2,200 innovative startups were created in the South at the end of 2019. Michelantonio Trizio, the CTO of Scotty.Expert, a business that connects first-line workers with remote experts through augmented reality, told EU-Startups that Italy’s lockdown nullifies the competitive advantage of being in a region with a bigger concentration of companies and potential customers. Therefore, startups are likely to play a vital role in boosting Italy’s economic growth in the future.

Italy needs to look beyond stimulus packages to rescue its economy post-COVID-19. Instead, future Italian governments need to get serious about leaving the eurozone in an orderly manner, reforming Italy’s tired bureaucracy and encouraging more start-ups. Italy may then start to witness levels of growth it enjoyed before joining the euro.

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As many nations flirt with the possibility of reintroducing national lockdowns, the Sun reports that Ireland has become the first European nation to return to a nationwide shutdown as the number of COVID-19 cases rocket — in a bid to rescue Christmas.

Ireland’s New Lockdown Restrictions

From Thursday all non-essential retail businesses in Ireland will have to close and bars and restaurants will only be allowed to offer takeaway or delivery.

Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin urged people to support the measures in a last-minute attempt to save Christmas and ensure that retailers could look forward to a ‘bumper’ December.

Other measures being implemented include people having to stay within three miles from home.

Less severe measures include:

• Schools being allowed to remain open, and elite sports like horse racing and Gaelic football will continue.
• The building industry will not be halted by the lockdown and people will be able to meet one other household outdoors.
• Funerals services will be allowed to admit a maximum of 10 people and weddings will continue to admit 25 guests.
• Citizens will be encouraged to work from home unless they are essential workers.

The Irish Government is Pursuing Draconian Measures

The Irish Government’s justification for these measures is based on recent data which confirms that infections are exceeding 260 per 100,000 people over the past two weeks, though that had fallen as low as three per 100,000 in July.

The number of Irish citizens who have died as a result of the coronavirus has reached 1,865 so far. Since the coronavirus crisis began, Ireland’s total confirmed cases have so far reached 50,000.

While any number of deaths are regrettable and tragic, it remains questionable as to why Martin has decided to pursue such draconian measures.

Ireland’s Lockdown Modelling was Wrong

According to the Irish Times, COVID-19 modelling suggested that Ireland would have a 50 percent attack rate and a fatality of 2.5 percent in a worst case influenza scenario. This would have resulted in 78,000 hospitalizations and almost 53,000 deaths. Ireland is currently nowhere near 53,000 deaths and it is worth noting that Irish politicians seem to forget that about the economic impact that lockdowns can have.

At this time of writing, there is no data available to explain how many Irish citizens have died as a result of lockdown itself, but The Daily Telegraph suggests that Britain’s lockdown has killed 21,000 people so far, and maybe as many as 200,000. If future figures reveal that Ireland experienced similar numbers as a result of its first lockdown, imagine how many more could die due to a second one.

The Central Statistics Office discovered that 54.1 percent of Irish businesses surveyed had lower than normal turnover for the four weeks ending July 26th. Many business owners also told Sky News that a second lockdown will result in them having to lay off staff.

Unemployment Will Lead to a Surge in Health Conditions

The Mises Institute referred to a 2014 piece in Harvard Public Health magazine, which found that unemployment can increase the odds of new health conditions such as stroke, hypertension and heart disease by 83 percent. Considering 2,427 and 2,260 Irish citizens died of coronary heart disease and heart attack in 2012, Ireland’s two lockdowns may trigger a spike in people suffering from heart conditions as a result of the unemployment caused by such draconian measures. Those 2012 figures are higher than the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in Ireland so far, yet the Irish Government did not shut down its economy back then.

With the possibility of a no-deal Brexit looming round the corner and living standards damaged by the 2008 recession, which resulted in Sinn Fein’s victory earlier this year, it is unlikely that Ireland’s economy can also cope with a second lockdown alongside these other events.

Taoiseach Martin may be doing what he believes is necessary to stop the spread of a virus, but history may find that lockdowns were far worse than COVID-19 itself in years to come, and that we paid an excessive price to curb a pandemic that is far less deadly than previous ones.

L'articolo Can Ireland Survive a Six Week Lockdown? proviene da InsideOver.

As the coronavirus continues to consume politicians’ time across the globe, both the UK and Italy are witnessing an increasing number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. On October 11, Italy recorded 5,456 new cases, and the UK recorded 12,872 extra cases. The rising number of cases has been used as a pretext by politicians in both countries to justify a raft of new lockdown measures, ostensibly to prevent the virus’s further spread.

The logic behind these new restrictions remains questionable as the number of deaths in both nations is very small. The UK recorded 65 new COVID-19-related deaths on Sunday – all but one of the victims had an underlying health condition – while Italy recorded 26.

The UK is Developing a Localized Approach

One of the biggest new changes British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Monday night is that of the “three-tier” lockdown system. The new system will see parts of the country where the virus is most prevalent put back into a more severe lockdown – closer to the situation experienced by the nation in March and April during the beginning of the pandemic.

The first tier will result in minimum restrictions such as a 10 p.m. curfew for bars and pubs, and a ban on gatherings of more than six people.

If the number of cases reaches more than 100 cases per 100,000 of the population, households will be banned from mixing indoors.

Tier three will be triggered if the first two tiers of measures have failed to contain the spread of the virus. This will result in the closure of social venues.

Italy Introduces Strict Nationwide Measures

Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced new restrictions such as banning private parties, involving both children and adults, and he will also target hours for bars and restaurants to reduce people’s contagion risks.

Unlike the British Government, Italian politicians are not implementing local lockdowns yet. Nonetheless, Italian Health Minister Roberto Speranza did not rule out that targeted local lockdowns could be imposed in the future, if critical situations arise.

Italy’s measure of targeted hours for bars and restaurants is very similar to the 10 p.m. curfew that has been introduced in the UK.

However, Italy’s policy of banning private parties goes one step further than Britain’s social distancing guidelines. UK citizens can technically still hold private parties in certain parts of the country, but only if they adhere to social distancing guidelines and stick to the rule of six, and this is despite the fact that Italy has fewer cases than the UK.

Italy’s Measures are Much Harsher than the UK’s

Regarding face masks, both the British and Italian governments have been equally harsh toward their citizens. Last Wednesday, Rome made it mandatory to wear face masks outdoors nationwide, which means that they introduced compulsory face coverings far later than their British counterparts did.

It is also equally clear that both governments are keen to avoid a national lockdown. British Health Secretary Matt Hancock told the House of Commons last week that the UK Government wants more “consistent approaches to levels of local action, working with our colleagues in local government.”

Earlier on Sunday, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio ruled out another national lockdown, claiming that the Italian economy could not afford it.

On balance, it appears that Italy has introduced a stricter set of lockdown measures than the UK. While the British Government is aiming for a localized approach, Italy has brought in harsh national measures such as banning private parties.

Despite this, there are some similarities between the British and Italian governments’ policies, which includes compulsory outdoor face masks and targeted hours for pubs and restaurants. What is clear is that both governments are determined to avoid imposing national lockdowns upon their own citizens, but a bigger question remains: how long do both governments intend to retain these draconian measures before they realize how counterproductive lockdown policies are?

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Italy and Sweden have one thing in common right now – they are both bucking the trend regarding the increasing number of coronavirus cases worldwide. Over the past two weeks, Italy’s cumulative number of COVID-19 cases was just over 37 per 100,000 people. The BBC’s Mark Lowen suggested that this was down to many reasons, which include: an efficient test and trace system, a longer lockdown and the fact that the trauma of the virus frightened numerous Italians into strict compliance with social distancing measures.

Yet Sweden was one of the very few nations in the world to not go into lockdown, and many now think that their strategy has paid off. So far, the country has recorded 5,895 deaths and 94,823 cases.

Meanwhile, Italy has recorded 35,918 deaths and 317,000 total cases. An immediate conclusion one can draw from this comparison is that Sweden managed to tackle the coronavirus without shutting down its entire economy, and they still managed to avoid recording more deaths than Italy did.

COVID-19 Deaths are Linked to Population Size

However, it was always inevitable that countries with larger population sizes were going to experience a higher number of deaths compared to smaller countries. In 2019, Italy had a population total of 60.36 million people, whereas Sweden’s population consisted of 10.23 million people that same year.

One of the main reasons why Italy experienced a higher number of COVID-19 deaths than many other countries is because it has one of the oldest populations in Europe. 23 percent of its residents are 65 or older. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from the coronavirus.

Sweden has an average age of 41.1 years. Therefore, it has a much younger population than Italy does.

Population Density is a Crucial Factor

The density of populations is another important factor that can trigger the spread of the coronavirus. Figures from the Italian statistics agency IStat show just how bad things have been in parts of northern Italy. Deaths in Lombardy during March 2020 were 186.5 percent above the five-year average, and in Bergamo they were 567.6 percent above the average.

Another reason why Sweden was able to curb the spread of the coronavirus was because it has a high proportion of single-occupancy households, and a relatively low proportion of multi-generational households. This meant that the coronavirus was far less likely to spread across Sweden than in Italy.

But it would be a mistake to suggest that Sweden did nothing to stop the spread of the virus. In March, Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven urged people to take responsibility and obey the Government’s advice, which included staying at home if you feel sick, working from home if you can, and to stay at home if you are aged 70 or over. Swedish venues were also only allowed to provide table service to avoid crowding. Like Italy, many Swedes complied with their Government’s guidelines and this is why both countries are successfully curbing the spread of the pandemic.

Sweden Was More Successful Than Italy in Tackling the Virus

Due to Italy’s population density, size and age, it was always inevitable that they would experience more coronavirus deaths than Sweden, but considering the latter was able to prevent the virus’s spread without a lockdown due to its compliant population, it is a tragedy that Italy felt it had to go into lockdown. The effects of lockdown will be far greater in the long-term than COVID-19 itself.

Sweden’s GDP drop of -8.6 percent is far lower than Italy’s (-12.4 percent). A recent report from Capital Economics concludes that Sweden’s economy is the least damaged in Europe, the “best of a bad bunch”, whilst the rest of Europe suffered from a significant recession. Italy’s economy was in major trouble before lockdown, and its politicians have made it worse for generations to come.

Out of the two countries, Sweden tackled the spread of COVID-19 far better than Italy did. They avoided a total lockdown and trusted their people to follow government guidelines. The Italians also followed their government’s recommendations, but their politicians still felt it was necessary to impose draconian measures upon them. The lesson from both countries is that it does not matter how lightly or harshly governments restrict their populations, people must take ultimate responsibility for their health, not politicians.

L'articolo Italy and Sweden: Which Country Tackled the Coronavirus Most Effectively? proviene da InsideOver.

Israel has imposed a second lockdown on its citizens to contain the spread of COVID-19, with tough restrictions coming into effect during the Jewish new year.

It is due to begin on Friday and last for three weeks.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that his decision was necessary as Israel has experienced an average of 4,000 new daily infections in recent weeks.

Netanyahu Has Introduced a Raft of Tough Measures

The measures that he announced include: no more than 10 people can meet indoors while groups of 20 are allowed outdoors; schools and shopping centers will close; non-governmental offices and businesses can stay open but they must not accept customers; supermarkets and pharmacies can remain open.

Netanyahu believes that he reopened the economy too soon in April and May, but the restrictive measures that the Prime Minister introduced in July have made no difference in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. Some of these restrictions included closing markets, shops and other public venues on weekends, and allowing restaurants to provide take-away services and deliveries.

Gamzu is Using the Poor as a Scapegoat for the Surge in Infections

A week before Netanyahu announced his latest set of restrictions, coronavirus commissar Professor Ronni Gamzu said on live television that Israel’s Arab and strictly Orthodox populations were to blame for a surge in COVID-19 infections. This is because they were not abiding by social distancing guidelines.

This is cheap political point-scoring as Jewish News suggests that these are two of Israel’s poorest communities. Yet the evidence proves that these communities had the smallest number of cases and casualties when the coronavirus spread throughout Israel, which makes Gamzu’s attacks against them even worse.

Israel’s Arab community only experienced five deaths at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and ultra-Orthodox towns and neighborhoods witnessed infection rates of around 18 per 100,000 people, according to a report entitled A Picture of the Nation. 

Aida Touma-Suleiman, a Knesset member for the Joint List, said the Arab community collaborated with health, employment and communication experts to ensure that people in this community cooperated with each other. Touma-Suleiman argues this was essential in urging citizens to be careful.

France 24 states that because the Arab community has a strained relationship with the government, many Arabs could not depend upon politicians to help them. It is likely they will have to depend upon themselves again during a second lockdown given the government’s track record of communicating with Israel’s Arabic population so far.

A Second Lockdown Will Damage Children’s Lives

Despite this, some cities like Kafr Qasim closed schools completely and this could have a damaging effect on children’s life chances later on.

The Daily Telegraph discovered that in the UK, seven in 10 parents said their children’s mental health had been impacted by lockdown, and one third said their children’s physical health had been damaged. Another study was conducted for children in Israel and other nations which reached a similar conclusion.

Studies of clusters of infections in family groups across China have concluded that children that participated in these studies did not spread the coronavirus. It is not worth damaging the prospects of Israel’s future generations just to contain a virus that has affected a small proportion of Israel’s population.

Israel Should Learn from Sweden’s COVID-19 Approach

A second lockdown will inflict further economic damage on Israel’s economy, which is already experiencing a recession due to the pandemic, and it will cost taxpayers an estimated $1.88 billion.

Considering Sweden has managed to reduce its number of coronavirus-related deaths and maintain a healthy economy without going into lockdown, the time has come for Israel’s politicians to rethink their COVID-19 strategy.

Although Netanyahu is understandably worried about a surge in coronavirus cases, a second lockdown is not going to make a difference, and it will only inflict more economic pain later on. It appears that the Prime Minister is using COVID-19 to score cheap political headlines to distract people’s attention from his own corruption charges and recent failures.

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Sweden’s approach to the coronavirus continues to stir controversy as Anders Tegnell, the country’s leading epidemiologist, said that there is no point in Swedish citizens following the World Health Organization’s advice, which is to wear face masks when social distancing is not possible. Tegnell said that there is no point in adopting this measure because Sweden’s number of COVID-19 infections is dropping sharply.

The Health Agency of Sweden says that since reaching a peak in late June, the infection rate has rapidly dropped despite an increase in testing over the period.

Sweden’s Unorthodox Approach to COVID-19

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the Swedish Government has consistently refused to take its country into lockdown while many of its EU counterparts and the UK took the opposite direction. At one stage, the number of Swedish deaths exceeded those in the US and Brazil. On Tuesday 28th July, Sweden reported only two new deaths. The current death toll there stands at 5,743. This is a remarkable achievement for a nation that bucked the trend and kept its economy open as COVID-19 crippled the rest of Europe.

The Science Behind Face Masks is Unclear

As Sweden continues to recover from the coronavirus in its own way, was Tegnell right to argue that face masks should not be mandatory in his own country? The one reason why the face coverings debate remains unresolved is because there are a lot of contradictory arguments over their purpose and efficacy.

In the UK, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) that is advising the British Government on its response to the coronavirus argues that the evidence of coverings preventing the spread of infection from one person to another is “marginal, but positive.”

This argument is supported by a study conducted by Cambridge and Greenwich universities which discovered that requiring everyone to wear a face mask would prevent a ‘second wave’ of coronavirus for 18 months.

Some Studies Show Face Masks are Effective

Nonetheless, Denis G. Rancourt, PhD, conducted a study into whether face masks work or not. He reviewed established knowledge about viral respiratory diseases, the mechanism of seasonal variation of excess deaths from pneumonia and influenza, and other factors.

He found that the “second wave” of an epidemic is not a result of ‘human sin’ regarding mask wearing and hand-shaking. Instead, it is a consequence of an air-dryness-driven many-fold increase in disease contagiousness among populations that have not yet gained immunity from a virus.

Furthermore, mask stoppage efficiency and host inhalation are only half of the equation because the minimal infectious dose (MID) must also be considered. If the MID surpassed by the virions carried in a single aerosol particle is able to evade mask-capture, then the mask is of no practical utility.

Do Face Masks Actually Work?

Rancourt states that because there is no sufficient scientific evidence on face masks, governments should not make policies that have a hypothetical potential to cause harm.

Radonovich et al (2019) conducted a study that investigated whether N95 respirators and medical masks prevent influenza among healthcare personnel. It also found that among 2,862 participants, 2,371 completed the study. Among outpatient health care personnel, N95 respirators versus medical masks as worn by volunteers in this experiment resulted in no substantial difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

This was also supported by a 2020 Hong Kong study which came to the same conclusion, but also stated that improper use of these masks increases the chances of getting transmitted.

Sweden’s Approach is the Right One

People in many countries are being told that cloth masks are better than nothing, but in 2015 MacIntyre et al compared medical masks to cloth masks. They found that cloth masks are ineffective and can put people at a greater risk of catching a virus. Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in an increased risk of infection.

Considering Sweden has succeeded in curbing the rate of COVID-19 infections without the need to impose a lockdown so far, it would appear that Tegnell’s decision not to force Swedes to wear face masks is justified based on the scientific evidence currently available. There is no certainty that they do work and more countries would do well to follow Tegnell’s lead. It should be a matter of choice for people to wear a face covering. Sweden may well be the unsung hero of the coronavirus pandemic in years to come.

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Sweden, typically a poster child for healthy living, has been forced to defend its coronavirus strategy as the state finally begins to see the curve flatten. The fact that Sweden — a state that was rated 8.5 for healthy by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) —failed to control the disease for so long even as its neighbors managed to succeed gives reason to question the Swedish strategy, which was unconventional from the beginning.

Voluntary Measures

From the onset, Stockholm decided not to lockdown, a decision it maintained through the worst of the crisis in April. The Swedish strategy essentially boiled down to trusting its residents to do the right thing. Social distancing has been voluntary and the only hard rule issued by the government is a prohibition of gatherings with more than 50 people, BBC News reported.

Although the government did not explicitly declare herd immunity a goal, some health experts suggested Sweden could be a test bed for the theory. However, others have argued against such an approach and most agreed that for it to work properly, an average 60-85% of a state’s population would need to be infected, according to the New York Times.

Furthermore, vulnerable demographics such as the elderly are unlikely to mingle in public as frequently as a healthy individual, thereby decreasing the likelihood that they would obtain the antibodies. Finally, the jury is still out on whether an immunity can even be established against COVID-19. Even with a vaccine, it is possible that it may not be 100% and permanently effective with the first dose.

The Swedish Public Health Agency revealed a paltry 6% of its population has tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, as BBC News reported, which is hardly a raving endorsement for herd immunity.

Astronomical Death Rate Among the Nordic States

For these reasons, Sweden stirred controversy when it decided that it would not shutdown with the rest of the world and it continued to pay a price in casualties. As of Friday, it ranked 27th with 5,676 deaths according to health data compiled by Worldometers.

Its neighbors boast far better results, however. Denmark has only 612 deaths, Norway 255, and Finland 328. Even when considering population differences (Sweden has roughly twice the population of each of its neighbors, the numbers are harrowing. So why then are Swedish health experts so resolute in defending their strategy and insistent upon declaring it a national success?

“The epidemic is now being slowed down, in a way that I think few of us would have believed a week or so ago,” said Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist.

‘No Strong Evidence’

It is true, the numbers are now looking incredibly favorable particularly when compared with the virus’ peak in April. Tegnell hailed recent statistics as vindication of the Swedish strategy saying, “We have managed to [slow the spread] with substantially less invasive measures.

Have daily deaths and cases fallen? Yes. Did resisting a nationwide lockdown keep the Swedish economy afloat? Yes. However if these are the only metrics, then what is the point of fighting the coronavirus at all, if we are to entirely ignore the lives sacrificed needlessly?

Tegnell conceded there may have been too many casualties, but he remained in stark denial that lockdown measures would have helped, declaring there was “no strong evidence that a lockdown would have made the much of a difference.”

Lofven Government Loses Support

Lives weren’t the only casualty as a result of the strategy—support for the government, including Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, plummeted. Although Lofven and his Swedish Social Democratic Party have enjoyed higher approval numbers since before the pandemic began, June marked a turning point as Lofven’s approval rating fell 10%, according to SBS News. Public faith in Lofven’s party similarly dropped 9%.

Swedes are now questioning whether or not Stockholm leaders made the right call. Estimates anticipate a 5% economic contraction this year, less than Sweden’s neighboring states. Consumer spending was higher, however, but an unemployment rate of 9% leads the Nordic states, BBC News reported.

“Sweden, like the other Nordic countries, is a small, open economy, very dependent on trade. So the Swedish economy tends to do poorly when the rest of the world is doing poorly,” said Prof. Karolina Ekholm, a former Deputy Governor of Sweden’s central bank.

It remains to be seen if Sweden’s strategy has further reciprocal effects, but for now the damage, aside from casualties, appears to be limited to its image. The state, usually a top-tier nation in terms of health and wellness, now is forced to defend the sacrificing of its citizens to preserve its economy. 

L'articolo Sweden Defends Coronavirus Strategy Despite High Casualty Rate proviene da InsideOver.

South America has seen a sharp rise in the number of new COVID-19 cases for the past few weeks, even while countries in Europe and Asia have begun to relax their lockdown measures.

On Sunday June 28, Latin America and the Caribbean recorded 2,432,245 infections (1,319,274 of which are in Brazil) with 110,6821 deaths and 1,373,504 cases in recovery.

The surge in the COVID-19 figures is due to the loose lockdown, non-synchronized responses from governments and worsened by massive economic inequality.

Brazil Has the Second-Highest Number of COVID-19 Cases in the World

Brazil — the largest country in the region — has recorded the world’s second-highest numbers of COVID-19 infections behind the U.S. As of Monday, June 29, Brazil had 1,345,254 cases, with 733,848 cases in recovery and 57,658 deaths.

The alarming amount of COVID-19 cases in the country are at least partly due to the mishandling by President Jair Bolsonaro, who underestimated the virus from the beginning, claiming it was a “little flu”. COVID-19 has symptoms similar to common flu such as cough and sore throat but is potentially much more serious.

The former army captain also ignored health protocols by not wearing a face mask and shunning physical distancing while attending a mass rally. He opposes lockdown measures for the sake of sustaining economic activity. Bolsonaro’s responses to the pandemic led to the resignation of the country’s health minister, Nelson Teich, who served for just one month.

‘We’re Fighting Against the Coronavirus and Against the Bolsonaro Virus’

Teich replaced Luiz Henrique Mandetta, who was fired by the president after calling on all citizens to stay at home to prevent the further spread of the virus. Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic also triggered a stand-off with Brazil’s state governors, with one of them calling the president’s approach the “Bolsonaro virus”.

“We’re fighting against the coronavirus and against the Bolsonaro virus,” said Joao Doria, governor of Brazil’s densely-populated state Sao Paolo, adding that Bolsonaro’s has taken “incorrect, irresponsible positions,” in dealing with the pandemic.

Brazil’s states and cities have adopted their quarantine measures, different from the president’s policy. Also, there is a rising concern over the spread of the virus in slum areas, indigenous communities, and areas with a lack of testing capacity.

Research from The University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated the death toll over COVID-19 in Brazil could exceed 125,000 in August.

Chile’s Health Minister Resigned Over COVID-19 Data Discrepancy

On Sunday, June 28, Chile’s total COVID-19 cases reached 271,982, with 232,210 cases in recovery and 5,509 deaths, according to official data.

Chile is one of the countries in the region that took early anticipatory measures to slow down the outbreak, such as the closure of borders and extensive testings. However, the quarantine policy did not help to control the number of new cases as the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases surged in May.

In the middle of June, Chile’s then-health minister Jaime Manalich resigned amid the controversy over the numbers of COVID-19-related deaths.

Previously, Chile’s Sebastian Pinera government informed the public that the COVID-19 had taken over 3,000 lives since the first case emerged for the first time on March 3.

However, a report from an investigative journalism organization (CIPER) exposed that the government informed the World Health Organization (WHO) that the COVID-19-related death toll had exceeded 5,000. The organization got a copy of the country’s health ministry document handed over to the United Nations (U.N) health body, CNA reported.

Chileans took to the streets demanding food aid during the lockdown measures, which led to chaos. President Pinera promised to deliver support to the most vulnerable groups of people.

Peru Scrapped Lockdown Despite Rising Infection Numbers

As of Monday, June 29, Peru has 279,419 COVID-19 cases, with 9,317 deaths and 167,998 cases in recovery.

“Although the number of cases in the country is still high, there has been a decrease in infections in recent weeks,” the country’s health minister Victor Zamora said, cited in Menafn.

After imposing social restrictions for about three months, Peru decided to end the policy on June 30 despite the rising numbers of new COVID-19 cases. The Andean nation has gradually reopened its economy. The pandemic has worsened the economy as at the end of this year, Peru is estimated to lose 4.2 million of jobs.

Other Countries in South America are Performing Relatively Well

Uruguay, the tiny nation in the region, has successfully dealt with the pandemic as the country had only 847 COVID-19 cases, with 23 deaths as of June 14.

The country’s president Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou, never issued a lockdown measure, but Uruguay quickly imposed a social distancing policy and conducted a massive testing program, as BBC reported. Uruguay’s long history of less income inequality and trust in political institutions has been one of the most important keys to its successful tackling of the pandemic.

Uruguay’s larger neighbor Argentina slapped a quarantine on March 20, and citizens complied with the social restrictions. The Alberto Fernandez government provided financial aid to low-wage workers to help them survive the crisis, as Reuters reported. Even though the policy could trigger inflation and will increase the government’s debt, at least Argentina prioritizes its people during the health crisis.

Shining Star: Cuba

Cuba has been the leading example of how a country should deal with the pandemic. The communist state is widely known for its excellent healthcare and qualified medical workers, who have done extensive work to visit residents and interview them to discover and document new COVID-19 cases.

The country even sent its doctors to some of the hardest-hit nations around the world, such as Italy. Cuba guarantees that every citizen has access to healthcare. Despite people in the country making a monthly wage of around only $20 USD, the government works to ensure their wellbeing. 

The ratio is one doctor for ever 150 Cubans, which is an outstanding figure compared to other developed nations. The United States, for example, with its private healthcare system has only 0.4 doctors per 150 people. Therefore, Cuba’s success story during this pandemic — while richer nations are still struggling deeply — should come as no surprise.

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France has become the next European nation to end its lockdown in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. French President Emmanuel Macron recently  hailed a “first victory” against the virus over the weekend while also promising that lessons will be learned from the pandemic, referring to the impact that it has had on France’s economy and its healthcare system.

On Monday, cafes and restaurants in Paris reopened, nearly two weeks later than the rest of the country.

France’s borders with other EU member states also reopened on Monday, while borders with nations outside of the bloc where the virus has also been defeated will reopen on July 1st.

On June 22, every school child under the age of 16 will be required to return to full-time education.

Macron’s Battles Have Just Started

According to recent data, 194,153 French citizens were infected with COVID-19. Officially, 29,410 people died as a result of the epidemic in France, whilst 72,982 others were cured. As of June 14, only 9 people died of COVID-19. This is a remarkable turnaround for France and it is little wonder that Macron feels confident enough to reopen his country’s economy again, even if it means that travelers from the UK and Spain will have to self-isolate for 14 days.

However, while the French President may be claiming he has defeated the coronavirus, his real battle starts now. France has been struck with an economic blow because of the lockdown, which caused output in the first quarter to drop by 6 percent once Macron placed his entire nation into quarantine.

France’s Lockdown Will Have Long-Term Negative Effects

The IMF claims that the French Government’s fiscal support measures equal 4.7 percent of GDP, including the nation’s chomage partiel job subsidy scheme. Furthermore, they anticipate that output will drop by 7.2 percent for the rest of the year.

The Governor of France’s central bank, the Banque de France, said in May that the lockdown had cost the French economy around 6 percent in lost activity.

If Macron cannot trigger economic growth in France, many French citizens may wonder whether it was worth going into lockdown in the first place, especially when nations such as South Korea were able to tackle the pandemic’s spread via a contact tracing system.

Prior to lockdown, France’s economy was already in a poor state. GDP fell by 0.1 percent in Q4, with Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire blaming protests earlier in the year for harming economic growth.

Macron Has Many Upcoming Struggles in Europe

France’s economic fortunes also depend upon what happens in Europe. If Britain and the EU cannot agree on a post-Brexit trade deal, then the French economy could potentially lose 140,000 jobs according to a report released last August. With the French President in a powerful position to influence the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations, and the deadline for a deal fast approaching, the time is coming for both sides to show some flexibility if they are serious about reaching an agreement.

Macron is due to attend a tricky European Council (EC) meeting that will discuss European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s €750 billion stimulus, and despite Germany’s support for this package, a watered-down total could be negotiated as the Frugal Four (Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands and Austria) oppose member state grants and prefer loans. Failure to approve of a package of this size will have wider political and economic consequences for the rest of the EU.

Can Macron’s Presidency Survive?

Prior to COVID-19, the French President supported a vision for greater economic integration in the eurozone, and the coronavirus will continue to test the EU’s solidarity for the rest of the year. But with Italy’s economy in dire straits, it is clear at some stage that EU leaders will have to decide whether they support Macron’s vision or not. This will be an ongoing struggle for the French leader.

Macron may have felt it was necessary to place his entire nation into lockdown, but the economic effects of his decision have yet to creep up on him. How France’s economy recovers will determine his fate.

L'articolo Macron’s Post-Coronavirus Economic Challenges Are Just Beginning proviene da InsideOver.

As the Italian Government begins to ease its country out of the recent lockdown designed to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, thousands of right-wing protesters took to the streets of 70 Italian cities on Tuesday, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government. They accused his administration of being incapable of handling the COVID-19 crisis. They also demanded that Italy readopts the lira currency and drops the euro.

The demonstrations were staged to coincide with Italy’s Republic Day.

What is the Orange Vest Movement?

The rallies were organized by right-wing opposition parties to give voice to what they referred to as “the country that does not give up,” referring to Italian citizens devastated by the virus and struggling to cope with its substantial consequences. The protest took place in Rome’s central Piazza del Popolo.

Many of Italy’s right-wing leaders joined the demonstrations, including the League’s Matteo Salvini, Georgia Meloni, the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, and Forza Italia’s Antonio Tajani. They joined together with hundreds of protesters to unfurl a 500-meter long Italian flag.

This protest was later joined by “Orange Vest” protesters, who are led by former army general Antonio Pappalardo.

Born on social media, the orange vests’ membership includes conspiracy theorists, anti-vaccination activists as well as ordinary Italian citizens who have seen their economic fortunes hindered by the lockdown. Many of their members also oppose Italy’s EU membership.

This is Just the Beginning for the Orange Vests

Pappalardo told protesters that children should not be made to wear masks and threatened to slap anyone who did. He argued that only he will take care of his lungs, stating that such containment measures infringe upon his freedom.

The Orange Vest movement insists that it is not going away. Organizers told the Daily Express that Tuesday’s rally was only a rehearsal for one that they have planned for July 4th. They intend to shape the future direction of Italian politics. It is too early to judge how successful they may be, but in order to gain an insight into what sort of impact these protests have, the Gilets Jaunes movement is a good example.

Inspired by the Gilets Jaunes

The number of protests in France has diminished, but the Gilets Jaunes still forced the French Government into providing billions of euros of tax breaks for French citizens, and they put neglected swathes of the country back on the map. Frédéric Gonthier, a political scientist at the Pacte research center and the School of Political Studies in Grenoble, told France 24 that they have put the working classes back at the heart of France’s political debate.

If the Orange Vests pursue their aims successfully, they are likely to have a similar impact on Italian politics. Euractiv reports that Giovanni Orsina, professor of politics at Rome’s LUISS University, told AFP that right-wing propaganda will become more attractive if people begin to suffer throughout the country.

How Will Conte Respond?

There are plenty of reasons to believe the Orange Vest movement may continue to grow in numbers. Already, millions of Italians have lost their jobs and the Italian economy is likely to contract by 9.1 percent this year- the worst peacetime decline in nearly a century.

A Tecne poll conduced on April 9th-10th found that support for leaving the EU was as high as 49 percent.

But the Orange Vests’ true impact on Italian politics will be measured by how Conte’s government responds to this movement. Considering he is a fervent supporter of the euro, he is unlikely to take Italy out of the eurozone. Assuming he stays in power, he may be forced into making further concessions to speed up Italy’s economic recovery if the orange vests succeed, which is what he did earlier this year by providing a €4 billion tax break for businesses.

If the League regains power, then Salvini will attempt to please the orange vests as much as he can, more so than Conte.

Either way, the Orange Vest movement represents significant dissatisfaction and anger towards Italy’s political establishment. Ordinary Italians are beginning to witness the potential they could have to transform Italian politics forever, but that depends on whether the Orange Vests succeed in expanding their membership and whether they continue to boost their visibility in the long-term.

L'articolo What Impact Could the Orange Vests Have on Italian Politics? proviene da InsideOver.