On a surprise move, Khalifa Haftar has visited Athens on Thursday 17 January, late evening.The next morning General Haftar met the Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nikos Dendias, before heading to the Hellenic Parliament, to meet Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The upcoming talks in Berlin have been at the top of the agenda between the Libyan strongman and Mr. Mitsotakis. Albeit the wide and enthusiastic coverage the visit has received from Greek media, there has been no official joint statement by General Haftar and the Greek side, once the talks have been completed.

Mr. Dendias has tried to highlight the key points of the meeting in an interview he gave on Friday night, 17 January, to the Greek state-owned broadcaster ERT. According to the Greek Minister, Athens would pursue – by all means – the establishment of an unconditional and open-ended ceasefire and at the same time the cancellation of the two Memoranda of Understanding between GNA and Turkey. Mr. Haftar is allegedly totally agreeing with the Greek pledges for the cancellation of the MoUs, a claim that makes absolute sense, considering that LNA wants to limit any Turkish involvement in the Libyan front. Mr. Dendias could not confirm if and to what extent General Haftar will put on the table the cancellation of MoUs, as a necessary condition for the smooth progress of the negotiations, during the Berlin summit tomorrow. It has also been stressed out that Greece is not seeing the current situation in the eastern Mediterranean as a zero-sum game between Ankara and Athens, and the ideal solution should guarantee benefits for all the sides involved.

At the same time Greek PM, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, stated that the absence of Greece in the Berlin summit is a sad fact and Germany has overlooked the crucial role of Greece, as a factor of stability in the region. Mr. Mitsotakis clarified that Greece was willing to veto any decision with regards to the Libyan crisis, that would not reject the validity of the two MoUs between Tripoli and Ankara. A statement that has been probably a part of the Government’s communication policy, considering that even if Athens tries to veto any decision about Libya in the level of EU foreign ministers, the impact on the outcome of the process would be minimal. Besides, we highly doubt that Greece could proceed to vetoing any such plans, in the first place.

Back to Haftar’s presence in Athens, we should look at the timing and the implications of the visit. Greece has been struggling to establish herself as an equal negotiating party on the Libyan process, especially after the Turkish latest moves, that impact directly the Greek vital national interests. Athens failure to secure a position in the table of negotiations in Berlin had a significant political backlash for the government, which had to be turned around the soonest.

Mr. Dendias has visited Libya and met with General Haftar in late December 2019 and expressed the Greek support to the LNA efforts. The two parties have agreed to hold another meeting in Athens, and the current timing could not be better for Greece. The absence of a joint statement and the limited comments from the Greek side about what has been discussed, indicates that little progress has been made in terms of promoting the Greek demands against the Turkish provocations in the region. On the other hand, the Greek major media -most of them friendly to the current administration- have presented the event, as an unprecedented Greek success that could constraint the EU and Turkish options and the only possible outcome from the Sunday negotiations would be the most favorable one for Greece. Briefly Haftar’s meeting has been sold to the Greek public, as a game –  changing development, speculating that Haftar is planning to decisively promote the Greek positions in Berlin. Apparently this approach is ignoring the fact that Haftar forces are waging war for almost six years in Libya, and the top priority for the General is to consolidate his power all over the country and secure his very survival.

Assessing the current power balance in-country and the ongoing international developments related to Libya, we believe that Haftar’s role will be considerably upgraded, opening the road to the General to eventually control the country. The Greek side is relying on this scenario to capitalize on the potential gains, assuming that things will play out well for the Libyan General. However, we should always consider that several regional powers have also supported Haftar, including Egypt, UAE and allegedly Israel. These powers have provided much more substantial support long before Greece and will certainly seek to use the potential Haftar’s prevalence in their best interest.

L'articolo Implications of Haftar’s Visit in Greece proviene da InsideOver.

Rage, resentment and multiple resignations among high-ranking Syrian rebel leaders and commanders have come fast at the heels of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s unilateral decision to dispatch thousands of proxy Syrian fighters – with the possibility of sending additional Turkish military forces – to Libya. Erdogan is sending the fighters there in support of his ally in Tripoli, prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj, who heads the internationally recognized Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). A major offensive has been gaining momentum in recent weeks launched by forces loyal to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar‘s Libyan National Army, who is quickly advancing to overtake the capital Tripoli and topple Sarraj and his government whom they perceive as a gang of pro-Turkish and pro-US traitors. Al-Sarraj himself is said to be of Turkish origin and his birth name was Fayez Fawzi Mohammad Agha from the city of Manisa, Turkey. His grandfather is also reported to have served as an officer in the Ottoman army, although such claims have not been independently verified.

Erdogan’s Plan Splits Opposition, Leads To Collective Resignations

The Turkish leader’s Libya intervention effort has rapidly split the so-called military wing of Syrian opposition factions, including some of the main Ankara-backed militias in Syria. Collective high-level resignations followed Erdogan’s unilateral move and selective dispatching of hundreds of pro-Turkish Syrian National Army (SNA) fighters to Libya without any consultation with their military commanders outraged some Syrian factions. A statement issued earlier this week by the so-called Interim Government’s Ministry of Defense and circulated widely over social media carried the resignation of all four SNA top commanders as well as those of three main hard-line Syrian rebel groups.

The statement reads: “We, the following names, hereby declare our resignation from the Syrian National Army in opposition to the dispatching of fighting groups to Libya without our consent:

1-General Salim Idriss, SNA’s Chief of Staff and Defence Minister in the Interim Government.

2-Brigadier Adnan Al Ahmad, SNA’s Deputy Chief of Staff.

3-Colonel Fadl Al Hajji, Commander of National Liberation Front.

4-Colonel Afif Suleiman, Idlib Army Chief.”

The resignation statement also included Jaber Ali Basha, Commander of ‘Sham Liberation Front’, Abu Eissa Al Sheikh, Commander of ‘Sham Hawks’ and Abu Saleh Tahhan, Commander of ‘Army of the Free’ rebel militia groups.

Opposition In Turkey, Outrage In The Region And Beyond

Erdogan’s latest controversial move has sparked fierce both regional as well as international condemnation especially  by Egypt, Iraq, Algeria, Syria, Tunisia—despite Erdogan’s visit to Tunisia five days ago to discuss his Libya intervention plan with his newly elected Tunisian counterpart Kais Saied, amid strong popular resentment towards Erdogan’s visit and policies—as well as by leaders of some EU nations such as France and Greece. Yet, Erdogan seems unwavering in his Libya intervention plan which is already underway.  Recently published reports and released footage both confirm the arrival of hundreds of Syrian and foreign pro-Turkish fighters in Libya, including some senior Turkmen militia leaders as an ‘avant guard force’ preparing for the imminent dispatch of some 8,000 fighters promised by Erdogan to his ally Al Sarraj.

There is also strong opposition to Erdogan’s Libya adventure within Turkey itself. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the second most powerful political force in the country and main opposition party in Turkey, the Republican People’s Party (GHP), has publicly denounced Erdogan’s plan for Libya, reiterated his party’s outright rejection and opposition to sending any Turkish servicemen or forces to Libya. GHP is a Kemalist ‘secular’ party established in 1923 by Kemal Mustafa Ataturk, founder of the Turkish republic, first leader of the party till his death in 1938. GHP was the only political party in Turkey until 1946.

From The Syrian Fire Into The Libyan Frying Pan

Earlier this month, Erdogan took another controversial and destabilizing step when he signed a trade and security deal with al-Sarraj during a visit to Tripoli, that gives Turkey unprecedented gas and oil exploration privileges and production rights in the Mediterranean. The deal radically which overhauls historic maritime lines and exploration rights in favor of Turkey at the expense of other nations, mainly Greece and Cyprus, has met with strong condemnation and even threat of military action against any Turkish vessels or rigs in the Mediterranean, particularly by Egypt.

Erdogan has used his AK Party majority in the parliament to pass and adopt the deal with Libya orchestrated by Erdogan and al-Sarraj who, as agreed, later invited Turkey to provide military support and protection to GNA against Haftar, who has the full political and military backing of Erdogan’s arch enemy, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. In a speech in Ankara on Thursday, Erdogan said on January 7, he will present a bill to the Turkish Parliament authorizing deployment.

“Since there is an invitation right now, we will accept it,” Erdogan told members of his AK Party. “We will present the motion to send troops to Libya as soon as Parliament resumes. God willing, we will pass it in Parliament on January 8-9 and thus respond to an invitation” from the Tripoli-based GNA, Erdogan maintained.

Many observers and experts predict that Erdogan’s Libya intervention carries a good deal of risk and danger, both politically and militarily. While optimists in Syria and the region hope that, by transferring terrorists and jihadists from the Levant to Libya – be it by Turkish military planes, cattle freight ships or even by swimming to Tripoli—could at long last bring about an end to the Idlib dilemma, pessimists ,including many anti-government rebel groups, feel that Erdogan is hopelessly trying to revive an Islamist Neo-Ottoman empire that stretches from the Levant to Africa and the Far East. However, they warn that, by wearing shoes far too big for his real size, Erdogan might well be writing his own epitaph, as well as spelling his AK Party’s demise, through a final precarious war dance and rope walking from Syria’s fire into Libya’s frying pan.

L'articolo Outrage, Rift and Resignations Over Erdogan’s Libya Plan proviene da InsideOver.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated his intention to provide military support to Libya’s recognized government in his latest attempt for increased geopolitical relevance and projection of Turkish power. In order to facilitate the deployment of Turkish troops, Erdogan will request the Turkish parliament to vote on the plan early next month. The corresponding law will likely be submitted by the beginning of January Erdogan confirmed in a speech to representatives of his party AKP.

Turkey’s Libya Deployment Timeline

Erdogan stated that “based on the security and military cooperation memorandum, once Parliament opens the first thing we will do is to submit a resolution on the deployment of soldiers.” Specifically, the resolution authorizing deployment to Libya is expected to be passed on January 8 or 9.

Moving forward, Turkey would go to places where it was invited but never anywhere where it was not wanted, Erdogan continued. The latter is his rationale for his Lybia plans, as Libya’s GNA government has invited Ankara to intervene and requested it. It’s an invitation that Erdogan is more than willing to accept. In fact, Turkey will provide the Tripoli government with “any kind of support against a coup-planning general backed by several European and Arab countries,” Erdogan said, adding that “we stand alongside Libya’s legitimate government.” The legitimization of the current government, however, remains a conundrum among the international community.

Libya’s Bloody Civil War

Libya has been suffering from a civil war since 2014. Erdogan already agreed on Sunday to provide more military support to the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, and to examine the possibilities of deploying boots on the ground, as well as air force and navy assets. At this stage, it is hard to predict what type of troops Erdogan will ultimately send. However, as NATO’s biggest army other than the US, Erdogan certainly has several options to explore.

Turkey and the al-Sarraj government in Libya had already concluded on a comprehensive security and military cooperation agreement, which allows Turkey to send military trainers and advisers. The Turkish government also has authorization for joint military exercises and may send weapons and military vehicles to Libya on request. Moreover, Turkey has pledged to help build a protection force to undertake police and military duties. In order to deploy combat troops, Erdoğan’s government requires separate parliamentary approval. The latter can be seen as a pure formality, however, as Erdogan’s AKP and his coalition partner, the MHP command a majority in the Turkish parliament.

Turkish Deployment Could Lead To An All-Out Proxy War In Libya

Nonetheless, Turkey’s increased involvement will likely further complicate the current situation in Libya with the fear of an actual proxy war becoming conceivable. The UN-recognized al-Sarraj GNA government and the powerful opposition Libyan National Army (LNA) forces commanded by dual American-Libyan citizen, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, have been competing for power since the overthrow of Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. Haftar’s Libyan National Army has been trying to capture the capital, Tripoli, since April. According to the UN, more than 280 civilians have been killed and more than 140,000 people displaced since Haftar’s offensive began eight months ago.

Amongst as-Sarraj’s primary supporters are Turkey, Qatar, and Italy. On the other side, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE have been supporting Haftar. Meanwhile, Russia, which also supports Haftar in Libya, has expressed concern about Turkey’s possible involvement. A delegation from the Turkish government traveled to Moscow on Monday to speak to Russian diplomats about Libya and Syria. The latter demonstrates Turkey’s status as an opportunistic power, as Ankara has been increasingly fraternizing with Russia in recent times, a development that is seen highly negatively in the West. The move now appears to be solely in Turkey’s interest.

L'articolo A New Proxy War? Turkey Plans to Deploy Troops to Libya proviene da InsideOver.