In a devastating blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s premiership, Likud Member of the Knesset (MK) Gideon Sa’ar — long seen as the Prime Minister’s nemesis in the Likud Party — announced he was quitting the party and will form his own right-wing party. Sa’ar’s new party will be called New Hope and he will run under its banner for the premiership in the next election, which looks likely to come soon.

The former leading Likud minister said his party had become a “tool for the personal interests of the person in charge, including matters relating to his criminal trial,” and has fostered a “cult of personality” around Netanyahu.

Sa’ar will also be resigning his Knesset seat because he felt it was right for him to step down as he was elected to parliament for Likud.

Sa’ar: ‘Replacing Netanyahu is the Order of the Hour’

Sa’ar, who failed in a leadership challenge against the current Prime Minister last year, said the current coalition had wasted its parliamentary support, and failed in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Replacing Netanyahu is the order of the hour,” he declared, adding that the dangers of overly protracted leadership create a moral hazard.

There are many reasons why Netanyahu should be worried about Sa’ar’s leadership bid. Israel elects its governments using proportional representation, which means that the number of seats a party receives in the Knesset is proportional to the number of votes it wins.

Sa’ar Could Pose a Direct Challenge to Netanyahu

On their own, New Hope might not receive a lot of votes, but Sa’ar’s new party will aim to join forces with other existing political factions before the next election. Derech Eretz MKs Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel — who quit the Blue and White list when they joined the Netanyahu-led government in May — may also join New Hope.

Israel looks likely to be heading towards its fourth election in two years. Last Wednesday, the Knesset gave initial approval to a bill to dissolve the parliament amid a budget crisis and call a new vote.

Though the polls currently suggest Likud would be the largest party after a fourth election, Sa’ar could split the vote for Netanyahu. The Prime Minister is fighting back against Naftali Bennett’s Yamina, which is the official opposition party. Bennett has made significant gains in recent polls and he also poses a challenge to Netanyahu.

Has Netanyahu’s Luck Run Out?

Despite this, Israelis have little faith in either Netanyahu or his Blue and White counterpart Benny Gantz. The Israel Voice Index survey shows that 62 percent of Israelis view the Prime Minister as having very low or moderately low credibility, while 60 percent say the same for the Defense Minister. These low levels of support for both figures will affect how both of their parties perform during a fourth election, especially when Bennett’s credibility is rising in some polls.

Many political analysts told The Times of Israel that the current Likud-Blue and White coalition might incline more toward a compromise in the light of the electoral threat posed by Sa’ar’s party. If both parties do this, it is unclear what impact this will have on the state budget, which is due to be rejected on December 23. Once it is rejected, an election would automatically be called for March 23. Either way, both Gantz and Netanyahu realize that Sa’ar poses a threat to their coalition.

Netanyahu has been fortunate enough to win the last three elections over the last two years. Until now, he has also been the favorite to win a fourth election. The Prime Minister has survived many different scenarios over the last two years and with Sa’ar now leading his own party, maybe Netanyahu’s luck is about to run out, but that may not be a bad thing given how much his credibility has been damaged recently.

L'articolo What Impact Will Israel’s New Right-Wing Party Have on Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

2020 continues to be a dramatic year for Israeli politics as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly decided against passing an Israeli state budget by the late-August deadline. This is because the coronavirus could thwart the two-year budget stipulated in the coalition deal he signed up to. Instead, Netanyahu wants a budget that covers the rest of 2020. This conflict has the potential to trigger another set of elections in November.

Netanyahu’s Strategy

Haaretz reported on Wednesday that the Prime Minister intends to create chaos in the coalition to increase support for tearing apart the government.

The current coalition is led by Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party. They were sworn in after three inconclusive elections. The coronavirus pandemic caused the Blue and White leader to break his promise not to join Netanyahu’s government due to the latter’s indictment on corruption charges.

An Election is Still Netanyahu’s Preferred Option

Another reason why the Prime Minister has allegedly decided to seek another set of elections is because of the Jerusalem District Court’s ruling last week that witnesses will start testifying in his criminal trial in January. Apparently Netanyahu worries that he will be barred from serving as Prime Minister while he is on trial.

This is an incredibly risky move should Netanyahu choose to pursue it. He has already held three elections in over a year and neither one of them have improved his electoral fortunes. Nonetheless, the Prime Minister insists that this is still his preferred option and that he has no intention of breaking his rotation agreement that would allow Gantz to become Prime Minister in November 2021.

He may live to regret those words as Israel struggles to tackle the coronavirus pandemic. Opinion polls conducted by The Times of Israel at the end of June found that if the Prime Minister held fresh elections, he would win two more seats, which would take his final total to 38. Netanyahu currently has 36 seats in the Knesset. Meanwhile, the Blue and White Party would collapse to 9 seats. However, these polls were conducted before Israel witnessed an increase in coronavirus cases.

The Coronavirus Has Sparked Anti-Netanyahu Protests

433 Israelis have died of COVID-19 and 23,560 others have recovered from it, but there are still 56,748 confirmed cases. Although Israel has experienced a small number of deaths compared to other nations, Netanyahu’s handling of the virus has sparked protests throughout Israel.

Last Saturday, thousands of demonstrators gathered outside the Prime Minister’s residence in Jerusalem and at a park in Tel Aviv, voicing frustration over the government’s response to a pandemic that has devastated Israel’s economy.

Netanyahu’s government has also been torn between reopening the economy and extending the lockdown. The Prime Minister said that he reopened the economy too soon through late April and early May following the news that Israel experienced 1,000 new coronavirus infections a day in recent weeks, which triggered a broad range of restrictions. Markets, shops and other public venues have closed on weekends, while restaurants have been restricted to take away and delivery.

Israel Cannot Afford to Remain in Lockdown

Netanyahu announced plans to send cash to all Israelis in a bid to quell public anger over the economic effects of the lockdown, but many experts said Israel needs more targeted assistance.

The Israeli Government cannot afford to remain in lockdown forever. The same polls the Times of Israel conducted in June found that 58 percent of people disapproved of Netanyahu’s performance on the economic aspects of COVID-19. With unemployment already a problem in Israel, the Finance Ministry predicts that the economy could contract by 5.9 to 7.2 percent this year and it forecasts budget deficits of 13 to 14.2 percent of GDP. This is an awful time to hold an election.

If the polls are correct, Netanyahu would be able to remove Gantz from his coalition and collaborate with other right-wing parties. But polls are unreliable and an election could be an opportunity for voters to express their dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s handling of the coronavirus in general. He should proceed with caution.

L'articolo Why a November Election is a Risk to Netanyahu proviene da InsideOver.

The end of the political deadlock that has crippled Israel for almost one and a half years seems to be in sight after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he has managed to form a government.

Past Inability to Form an Israeli Government

The events leading to the formation of the government began soon after the election early this year. Both the Likud and the Blue and White had failed to secure enough seats in the Knesset, therefore making the formation of the government impossible.

Although Benny Gantz’s Blue and White — backed by other leftist parties — had gained a slight majority in the Knesset, divisions among them made it impossible for them to form a government. The participation of the Arab Joint List alliance in any government that was to be formed was particularly resented by other members of the pro-Gantz bloc.

This was because of its sympathy and support for the plight of the Palestinians. In fact Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu had vowed not to participate in any government that would involve the Joint List.

Gantz’s Chance

Owing to the support he had from various political parties, Gantz was given the first chance to form a government within 28 days. But this proved to be mission impossible after two members of his own Blue and White party insisted that they would vote against a government propped up by the Joint List. He, therefore had no other option but to return the mandate to the president.

With no end in sight for the deadlock, there were growing calls for both Netanyahu and Gantz to compromise their political ambitions in order to avoid a fourth election which would require millions of dollars. Furthermore, the dysfunctional Knesset meant that the government was not able to pass its 2020 financial budget to meet its obligations.

For instance, all ministries were only allocated a twelfth of what they had received the previous year per month. This meant long term projects and investment in basic services had to be put on hold .

The lack of annual budget also meant that the government couldn’t address the national budget deficit which had risen drastically to $3.9 billion in 2019, causing a reduction of 1.7% in the amount allocated to ministries in the final quarter of that year.

The fluid political situation was further exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic that was sweeping across Israel. Without a substantive government and key Knesset committees in place, many feared that the raging pandemic posed an even more significant threat to the Israeli public.

Netanyahu’s Reaction to COVID-19

Netanyahu as interim prime minister had reacted to the health crisis by introducing various measures to control the spread of the virus. Among them was the closure of the courts which resulted in his trial being postponed.

His appeal for Gantz to join him in the formation of a unity government to deal with the health crisis was strongly rejected by Blue and White and its allies. Most members of the pro-Gantz bloc — including Gantz himself — were maintaining their stand of not serving in the same government with Netanyahu who was facing criminal charges.
Some members had gone as far as drafting a bill to prevent a person facing criminal charges from forming a government.

But as the coronavirus situation became dire so did the calls for a unity government intensify. The proposal Netanyahu was making to Gantz involved him staying in power for two years as prime minister after which he would step down. The pro Gantz alliance, however, dismissed the proposal terming it as a plot by Netanyahu to outmaneuever them.

Gantz’s Surprise Agreement with Netanyahu

After much back and forth, Gantz agreed to form a unity government with Netanyahu catching most of his political allies by surprise. Many accused him of betrayal by agreeing to work with his opponent after vowing not to do so because of the criminal charges the Likud leader was facing.

This led to do the breakup of the Blue and White alliance which had been led by Gantz since February 2019. Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid and Telem factions led Moshe Ya’alon filed a formal to break away from the alliance leaving Gantz’s to form a unity government with Netanyahu.

According to the deal signed between Netanyahu and Gantz, government positions would be shared equally between their respective factions, with the position of prime minister alternating between them.

Netanyahu would start off as prime minister while Gantz as defense minister. After 18 months the two would swap roles with Gantz taking over as prime minister and Netanyahu as cabinet minister. Each of them would use the title “alternate prime minister” when not serving as prime minister

The government would have 32 ministers, 16 from each wing, before rising to 36 in six months. It will definitely be the most bloated cabinet in Israel’s’ history. “This partly to accommodate the demands of multiple divergent parties within the coalition who have little in common,”  according to the Guardian.

During the first six months of the unity government only legislation related to the coronavirus would be brought to the  Knesset. Any other legislation unrelated to the coronavirus would be brought to the Knesset only after consultation between the two wings.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu was to be allowed to continue with the legislation to annex parts of the occupied West Bank as envisaged in Donald Trump’s peace plan.

A New Unity Government Will be Formed

As a result of this deal, on May 7,2020, Israel president formally gave Prime Minister Netanyahu the mandate to form a unity government. Five days later, Netanyahu in a letter to both Gantz and President Rivlin, announced that he had been able to form a government.

The new government was to be sworn in the following day May 14, but this has now been postponed until Sunday as Netanyahu comes under immense pressure from his allies who feel left out from ministerial positions.
Naftali Bennet the leader of Yamina which stood with Netanyahu during the elections accused him of not making an attempt to include the party in the government.

Despite Netanyahu then offered the party the ministries for education and Jerusalem, Bennet insisted that he could only accept the ministries of transportation and health.

With the discontent over cabinet slots heightening, there are reports that Netanyahu has been pushing for the government to start with the 36 ministers instead of 32, to enable him calm the storm among the disgruntled Likud politicians.

“Those who flattered Netanyahu got jobs and those who are professionals and have done their job well have come up empty,” one Likud minister complained.

Whether Netanyahu will be able to calm the storm before Sunday remains to be seen. However considering that he has managed to overcome the political turmoil of the last 18 months, mollifying the disgruntled Likud politicians won’t be a big task for him.

L'articolo Israeli Political Turmoil Nears its End proviene da InsideOver.

In a meeting with the Israeli parliament’s Knesset’s right-wing bloc on Wednesday, March 4, PM Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the left-wing bloc did not receive 62 seats in the March 2 elections. For Netanyahu the left-wing bloc only received 47 seats, because, he argued, the Joint List, an Arab-led party that gained 15 seats, should not be counted as a legitimate part of the Knesset’s left wing, for they are not Zionists. But if the Joint List should not be counted on the left, where it truly belongs, its votes — according to Netanyahu’s reasoning — essentially don’t count at all.

Why is This Debate Happening?

During the recent March election, none of Israel’s parties reached the 62-seat requirement to be able to form the next government. The Joint List gained more seats than the previous rounds of elections with 15 seats. However, the parties in opposition to Netanyahu’s re-election did reach 62 seats, though they are unlikely to form a coalition that would include all 15 Joint List lawmakers to form the next government.

“The people’s will is clear,” Netanyahu said. “The national Zionist camp includes 58 seats. The leftist Zionist camp includes 47 seats.” “The Joint List, which attacks our soldiers and opposes the state of Israel, is not part of the equation,” he concluded.

Although Netanyahu’s declarations appear to have shocked many, some say they only reflect a true reality in Israeli politics across the board. Netanyahu has built his political campaigns on anti-Palestinian and anti-Arab sentiment, a rallying cry among his base as tensions with Palestinians grow amid controversial policies often in favor of Israel.

Trump’s ‘Deal of the Century’ and the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Recently, the conflict has seen a sharp revival after Donald Trump announced his late-January “Deal of the Century”, which Palestinians received as sheer incitement. During his last campaign, Netanyahu also promised the building of hundreds of thousands of new settlements in territories already occupied or to be annexed according to the Trump deal.

But over the past 15 months, Israel’s Arabs were the most demonized and portrayed as a fifth column by Netanyahu. He often urged voters to take to ballots because Arabs were voting “in droves”. To Netanyahu, Arab — and particularly Muslim — citizens are almost by default enemies of the state of Israel. Trump’s deal says Palestinians must recognize Israel as the unique and sovereign nation state of the Jewish people. The new deal would also have some 400,000 Arab citizens pushed out of Israeli borders.

The deal has sparked a new wave of violence, which even beforehand had seen an increase. In 2019, Israeli forces killed 133 Palestinians, 28 of whom were minors. That same year, 10 Israelis were killed including 1 minor. Trump’s deal, which attributes about one third of the West Bank to Israel, demands a demilitarized Palestinian state with no control over its own borders or sea and air space. Even the tunnels and bridges linking the sparse Palestinian lands would be under Israeli supervision. Trump’s “peace plan” already appears to stand at the antipodes of resolving the decades-long problem.

Are Any Israeli Parties Willing to Work With the Joint List?

Kahol Lavan is the only party on the left wing willing to cooperate with the Arab-led Joint List. It recently said it was now more likely to form a minority government with the Joint List, in condition of excluding 3 of its lawmakers. The Joint List, perceived as only wanting to further the interests of Arabs in Israel, said last summer that it was ready to take part in the Israeli government.

Yet analysts consider the only instance left-wing parties would team up with the Joint List is when it is indispensable to push Netanyahu out. This time, if Benny Gantz gets a chance to form a coalition before Netanyahu, a bill (proposed by Kahol Lavan) may be passed to ban an indicted individual from forming a government. Such law doesn’t exist yet, but it clearly aims at impeding Netanyahu, whose trial on corruption charges will start next week.

Netanyahu: Gantz’s Party ‘Undermines the Foundation of Democracy’ in Israel

Netanyahu said Gantz’s linkup with the Joint List is dangerous. “The movement Gantz is leading undermines the foundation of democracy,” he also said at the meeting. “He is trying to cancel out what the people determined,” he went on, before adding that he and his party have “repeatedly warned that Gantz is linking up with terror supporters.”

But even within Kahol Lavan the idea of closing ranks with the Joint List has been rejected when the option was considered during earlier elections. Members like Yaoz Hendel and Zvi Hauser — both former Netanyahu staffers— had vehemently objected to the idea. In the previous round of elections, Gantz was even quoted as having said, “Because of Zvika and Hendel I am not prime minister,” according to Haaretz.

Moreover, Kahol Lavan and Yisrael Beiteinu — today’s major opponents to Netanyahu — also said they were willing to form a government with Likud, provided that it is not led by Netanyahu. Nonetheless the fact remains that to effect Netanyahu’s departure the Knesset’s left bloc may need to work with the Joint List, which is parliament’s third-largest party.

L'articolo The Joint List Is Unwanted But Needed To Defeat Netanyahu proviene da InsideOver.

Israel is heading to the polls for the third time in one year, in what is turning to be one of the longest political stalemates in the country’s history. With opinion polls putting Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz close to a tie, a fourth election cannot be ruled out completely. As the entire world casts its eyes on the Jewish state, here is what you need to know about Israel’s elections.

Israel’s Unique Electoral System

What  makes Israeli elections unique is that people vote for parties and not individuals. The number of parties is also high with at least 22 parties participating in the current election. However in an attempt to appeal to the voters and to break the ongoing  deadlock, smaller parties leaning to the left and to the right have teamed up on their respective sides.

Why Are There So Many Parties?

The Israel Democracy Institute says the profusion of parties is due to Israeli society which “is extremely diverse, with multiple political divisions that run along ideological ethnic and religious fault lines.” This has resulted in a politically fragmented society.

Having many parties is considered a good thing since it grants minorities adequate representation in the Knesset. However, the representation comes at a price in terms of political stability and good governance, according to the IDI.

What Does a Party Need to Form a Government in Israel?

The Israeli parliament, called the Knesset, has a total of 120 seats which are allocated to political parties depending on how they perform in the elections. For a party to be allocated a seat in the Knesset it has to get 3.25% of the popular vote. This means that the better a political party performs in the elections the more seats it gets in parliament. A party that wins 61 seats in the Knesset is entrusted with forming the government.

According to the current projection by the JC,  Likud is set to get 31 seats while the Blue and Whites which is made up of Israel Resilience, Yesh Atid and Telem is projected to get 34 seats. Among the smaller parties, Labour Mertz is predicted to get 9 seats, Right Wing Union 11 seats , Yisrael Beiteinu 7 seats, United Torah Judaism 8 seats, Joint least 13 seats, and SHAS 8 seats.

Since no party has ever won the 61 seats needed to form a government,  Israel has always been  ruled  by coalitions of  parties with almost similar if not similar  ideologies.

Internal Trouble in Coalitions

However there have been situations where clashes of ideologies have occurred among coalition  partners leading  to political crisis. For instance, in 2015 Netanyahu’s Likud formed a coalition with smaller right wing and religious parties after winning 30 seats. But  this coalition entered headwinds when Yisrael Beiteinu walked out  because of the ceasefire in Gaza among other reasons .

The party leader Avigdor Lieberman has always been  against religious Jews being  accorded certain privileges. He has been particularly opposed to the exemption of  Heradi Orthodox from military service in Israel’s military. It was this misunderstanding that made Netanyahu to call for the election in 2019.

Without the support  Lieberman’s and his Yisrael Beiteinu, Netanyahu couldn’t garner enough seats to form a government. He consequently called for another election in September last year which again ended in a stalemate.

Why a Third Election Could Change Things

After almost a year of dysfunctional government many are now hoping that a third election will help get things moving. As the results of exit polls begin to trickle in we are likely to see a series of maneuvers by the leading parties in their bid to cobble coalitions that would enable them to form a government.

Depending on the outcome of the results, whoever will emerge on top will have the opportunity to form a government within 28 days. If he fails then Israeli President Reuven Rivlin will pass the responsibility to the party with the second highest number of seats. If he also fails then the two parties would be asked to work together in a unity government.

The responsibility of forming a coalition government will be passed to parliament which will have 21 days to come up with any candidate. Whether this will be possible considering the current acrimony between Gantz and Netanyahu remains to be seen.

This was the biggest impediment last year when the two leaders were expected to form a unity government.
Among the key issues that led to the failure was Netanyahu’s insistence of bringing his entire right wing coalition into the unity government. This was opposed by Gantz who said: “I will not cooperate with an effort to turn the majority of the people to a hostage being held by a small group of extremists.”

Netanyahu Characterizes Gantz as Accommodating Terror Sympathizers

For his part, Netanyahu accused Gantz of attempting to form a minority government propped up by Arab members of the Knesset whom he said were terrorist sympathizers.

There was also disagreement on the rotational premiership which was a key subject  of the negotiations. Netanyahu’s insistence that he should have the first go was rejected by Gantz who had already vowed not to serve under a Prime Minister facing criminal charges.

A similar scenario could play out in the coming weeks or months if a unity government is proposed. Gantz is still maintaining his stand of not serving in the same government as Netanyahu because of the charges Netanyahu is facing.

Another contentious issue that is likely to hamper the talks is the question of Jordan Valley and the Israeli settlements in the West Bank. While Netanyahu has vowed to annex the Jordan Valley, Gantz has promised to do so only in cooperation with the International community.

Since the trial of Netanyahu is slated to begin two weeks after the elections, perhaps many would want to know whether he would be able stay on as prime minister in case he is re-elected. Legally, Netanyahu won’t be required to step down unless a conviction is secured. Furthermore the process is likely to take years, giving his allies a chance to pass legislation that will prevent him from being jailed.

L'articolo All You Need to Know About Today’s Israeli Election proviene da InsideOver.

The past year has been rather uncertain for Israel as the country has undergone two elections, both producing no final result. Maybe third time’s the charm, as incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu might finally have enough factors working in his favor to get across the finish line and fully beat his rival Benny Gantz. 

Netanyahu’s Ongoing Political Struggle

Faced with a major corruption scandal including charges of bribery and fraud, Netanyahu has found it difficult to woo enough voters to his camp to form a majority. But he might just have gotten a golden opportunity to swing the decision of the upcoming March 2 elections by riding the international political waves of nationalism and anti-Arab, anti-Muslim rhetoric. 

Already the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel’s 72-year history, Netanyahu is currently serving his third term and he has been in power since 2009. During this period, he has steered the Jewish state further to the right, encouraging settlements in Palestinian territories and launching military offensives in Gaza that have killed hundreds of civilians. 

In the elections too, Netanyahu has gone with the same strategy. Where his rival and former military chief Benny Gantz has taken a centrist outlook, Bibi has tried to pander to the far right and secure that voting bloc in perpetuity. While the strategy failed to get his coalition the required 61 seats in Israel’s Knesset to form a majority, things may well be different this time around.

Will American Support Boost Bibi’s Popularity?

For starters, Netanyahu’s popularity has been boosted by getting Washington firmly into Israel’s camp, first by its recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state and by shifting the US embassy there. This was followed by the Trump administration breaking away from a 40-year status quo, saying it doesn’t view the Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal. 

The biggest problem for the Prime Minister, however, was when he flanked Trump while the US President announced his Middle East Peace Plan. A far cry from its namesake, the document basically gave the Jewish state unprecedented concessions, including the recognition of settlements as official territory while also making Israel the final authority on any Palestinian state. 

Outcast by its neighbors and criticized widely by the international community, Israel almost always turns to the United States for diplomatic support. However, during the Obama era, it was hard to come by as relations between Netanyahu and the former US President were quite strained at times. However, ever since Trump came into power, that equation has changed drastically and Washington has rallied behind the Jewish state rather unconditionally, giving Bibi something to boast about and rely on.

Netanyahu has also tactfully exploited anti-Arab sentiment in Israel, especially in the last elections when the Joint List – a coalition of four Muslim parties in Israel – came out as the third largest electoral group with 10.6% of the vote share. Their success had put them in the kingmaker position, which centrist rival Gantz was expected to rely on to plug the gap in his numbers. 

Netanyahu’s Skill at Stoking Anti-Arab Fears

Speaking on the possibility of Gantz forming a coalition with Joint List, Netanyahu said in a rally: “such a government is an existential threat to the State of Israel. If a minority government like this is formed, they will celebrate in Tehran, Ramallah and Gaza the way they celebrate after every terror attack. This would be a historic national terror attack on the State of Israel.” The strategy worked as Gantz didn’t seek Arab support since he couldn’t risk associating with perceived enemies of the Jewish state, thus leading to yet another election in less than a year. 

To further establish himself among the nationalist camp, the Prime Minister on Feb. 25 approved new Israeli settlements of 3,500 homes in East Jerusalem, the proposed capital of Palestine, thus dealing another major blow to the two-state solution. 

Even the international political currents are such that they put Netanyahu at an advantage. Just days earlier, Iran elected a new parliament in which conservatives and hardliners won 221 of the 290 seats, potentially giving Bibi another factor to stoke fears about.

Likud Party Passes Rivals in Polls

It is no surprise that after months, Netanyahu’s Likud was finally able to surpass Gantz’s Kahol Lavan in the latest polls. However, that’s not enough since the former is expected to get 57 seats, still leaving a shortfall of 4. Will closeness with the US or the threat of Iran give Bibi another term in the office? We’ll find out on March 2.

L'articolo Is Third Time A Charm for Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to seek parliamentary immunity from prosecution over corruption charges. Until fresh elections have been held in March, a trial will likely be delayed. This will be the third election Netanyahu faces in one year.

Why Was Netanyahu Charged?

Netanyahu is alleged by prosecutors to have accepted presents from wealthy businessmen and alleged favors to try and generate more positive press coverage. Because of these criminal indictments, on December 12, Netanyahu announced that he would drop all portfolios from his cabinet on January 1st other than his role of Prime Minister. Beside being Prime Minister, Netanyahu has served as Israel’s Social Welfare Minister, Diaspora Affairs Minister, and acting Agricultural Minister. Until Sunday, he was also Israel’s Health Minister.

Pros And Cons For Netanyahu

The Prime Minister has one factor going in his favor: a trial cannot commence once an immunity request is made and the Israeli parliament the Knesset – which has been dissolved because of fresh elections—is unlikely to rule on the request before then. Any Israeli prime minister must resign if they are convicted.

The cons of Netanyahu’s decision far outweigh the advantages. Elections held in April and September 2019 witnessed the Prime Minister’s Likud Party deadlocked with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party. They both gained 32 and 33 seats, respectively.

The Prime Minister’s impeachment charges were the biggest obstacle to coalition negotiations, despite his protests that he is innocent. Until Netanyahu faces trial for the crimes he has been accused of, it will remain almost impossible for him to form a functioning government, regardless of the result of March’s election.

His opponents have already made it clear that they will not vote to retain his position and they have reacted angrily to Netanyahu’s decision to call fresh elections. Both Gantz and Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu, have said they will vote against the Prime Minister’s immunity request.

Forced Compromise

Furthermore, the Israeli electoral system is designed to prevent a single party from gaining a working majority. Based on proportional representation, its intention is to ensure that smaller parties can influence the will of the ruling party, and trigger the dissolution of a newly elected parliament if necessary. Therefore, it does not matter whether Netanyahu increases the number of seats Likud currently hold, without being able to form a coalition, they will not be able to achieve anything until they compromise with their opponents.

Last month, Netanyahu defeated former aide and Cabinet minister Gideon Sa’ar in a Likud primary, winning 72 percent of the vote. Although he has succeeded in unifying the party’s base, he may find the next election a struggle. Polls indicate the March vote will produce a similar outcome to September’s, which will lead to another year of deadlock. The Christian Science Monitor’s Joseph Krauss referred to Netanyahu as a “political magician” who could transform this situation into an opportunity. His stance on the 2015 Iran Deal is popular with voters, but his political fortunes have waned and it is difficult to argue March will be any different for him.

Also, Sa’ar is unlikely to go anywhere. Polls show that 50 percent of Israelis believe that Netanyahu should resign and if he fails to increase Likud’s share of the vote in March, this will increase the pressure on him to step aside. Although the Likud’s structure demands complete loyalty from its members which prevents leaders from being ousted in a coup, the fall of Netanyahu and Sa’ar’s links to the Blue and White Party could be two factors that go in the latter’s favor, and could help create a functioning government.

The Prime Minister has bought himself short-term immunity, but this is the only factor in his favor when it comes to holding another election. His decision carries far more risks and if he fails to win a majority, he will find an unsympathetic Knesset will vote to impeach him. Likud’s luck could be running out.

L'articolo Why a March Election is Risky for Benjamin Netanyahu proviene da InsideOver.

For fourteen years, Benjamin Netanyahu has led Israel’s conservative Likud party. Now, however, he faces a real challenger in Gideon Sa’ar, who could redefine Israel’s position in the Middle East.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is one of the longest-serving leaders in the region who has, so far, defeated all opponents who have failed to form a government against him despite decreasing popularity.

His reign could come to an end, however, due to an internal leadership vote that will be held today. Back in October, Netanyahu announced that he sought to hold an internal leadership election, not anticipating he could be challenged for his position.

However, Gideon Sa’ar accepted the challenge, which led Netanyahu to cancel the election subsequently. It is reasonable to assume that Netanyahu was cognizant of a scenario that would have had him lose to Gideon. Two months later, Netanyahu will no longer be able to avoid the conflict with Sa’ar.

After two parliamentary elections within a year, after which Netanyahu failed to form a government twice in a row, Likud is holding a leadership election today, December 26. However, who is Gideon Sa’ar, the man who could end Netanyahu’s tenure? Furthermore, what are the implications for Israel?

First and foremost, the 52-year-old former Minister of the Interior and Education is a relatively unknown quantity on the international, less politically affine, stage. Unlike the astute and rhetorically gifted Netanyahu, who not only grew up in the US but studied at US universities, and obtained university degrees, Sa’ar has had little opportunities to present himself to the international media.

Nonetheless, Sa’ar has earned himself a reputation among astute observers and is a highly popular politician in Israel. In the Likud, Sa’ar has twice been the runner up to Netanyahu, who has had the bonus of being the country’s Prime Minister, in the past few years.

Moreover, Sa’ar is also popular outside the party: According to a recent survey, 33 percent of Israelis would like Sa’ar to become Netanyahu’s successor. A remarkable result, considering other candidates reach a maximum of seven percent in the same surveys. His popularity has surged so drastically that even media that is considered to be left-leaning cheer Sa’ar’s candidacy.

The latter is particularly surprising because, on several issues, Sa’ar has taken stances that are further to the right than Netanyahu’s. As a teenager, Sa’ar was already politically involved in the nationalist Techija movement, which opposed and protested the evacuation of Israeli settlements in Sinai as part of the peace treaty with Egypt.

Moreover, Sa’ar has described the two-state solution as a “non-helpful illusion” and continues to support annexation of the West Bank, while he promises the Palestinians at most limited Palestinian autonomy in a federation with Jordan.

Sa’ar has also positioned himself to the right of Netanyahu in domestic debates. He ordered the Minister of the Interior to close shops in Tel Aviv on the holy weekday Sabbath – as an expression of his ostentatious return to the Jewish faith, which is manifested in compliance with Jewish eating regulations and an intensive study of the scriptures. This adherence to principles explains its appeal to traditional right-wing voters.

His main advantage, however, seems to be his character, which even political opponents unanimously describe him as “extremely decent.” While Netanyahu has been accused of corruption in three cases and has had his fair share of somewhat controversial takes on Israel judiciary, the police, or the media, Sa’ar stands out for his moderate manner of expression and strong support for the Israeli rule of law.

However, for Sa’ar to utilize all the praise about his persona for political power, he will have to win the vote. He already took the first step when he emphasized that he can be the man who cannot only lead Likud but built bridges that can gap the rift within Israeli parliament.  A rift Netanyahu has evidentially failed to gap after two failed attempts to form a coalition because the opposition categorically rejects him.

So far, four Likud members of the Knesset have endorsed Sa’ar. Nonetheless, Netanyahu continues to command widespread support within Likud. However, Netanyahu appears to be concerned about the outcome tonight, which is the most reliable indication that Sa’ar has more than an outsider’s chance to overtake the party and potentially reshape Israel’s role in the region.

L'articolo Gideon Sa’ar, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Internal Antagonist proviene da InsideOver.

Ever since he joined politics, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been dogged by scandals and controversies that never seem to go away. Known to his supporters as “Bibi”, in July this year he became Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister surpassing, David Ben-Gurion the founding father of the Jewish state.

But just like the proverbial cat with nine lives, Netanyahu has always surmounted the challenges on his political path even when some of his closest supporters thought he wouldn’t survive. His early challenge came in 1993 when he joined the race to lead the right-wing Likud Party against his main rival David Levy. One anonymous caller claimed that he had a secret tape of him and his image consultant Ruth Barr in a sexually compromising position.

Such allegations touching on the morality of a member of the Knesset, especially one who was campaigning to lead the main opposition party, were set to derail Netanyahu’s political ambitions. At first he dismissed them as part of a smear campaign by his main rival. Without mentioning names, he told Mabat TV that “one man, surrounded by a not-small group of criminals,” was blackmailing him to drop out of the race with a sex tape of him and someone who is not his wife.

Although Netanyahu later accepted the he had an affair with Barr, and apologized to his wife, he made a thinly veiled attack against his rival Levy saying “Whoever uses methods of spying, recording and breaking in, is not worthy to be a leader and should be in prison.” Despite the scandal, he won and became the leader of the Likud.

As the opposition leader, Netanyahu’s strong nationalist views won him support from the disenchanted Jews who embraced right-wing extremism. He strongly based his opposition politics on disparaging the Palestinian-Israel peace accord which had been signed by the then Prime Yitzhak Rabin and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in Oslo Norway. One of his most extreme speeches in this regard was the one he made from a Jerusalem balcony with a banner reading, “Death to Arafat” as the crowd below chanted slogans against Prime Minister Rabin.

This growing right-wing extremism resulted in the assassinations of Prime Minister Rabin in 1995 by Yigal Amir. Rabin had just finished addressing at a pro Oslo accord rally in Tel-Aviv when Amir fired three shots fatally wounding him.

Following the death of Rabin, Shimon Peres took over as Prime Minister but decided to call for an early election to give his government a new mandate to implement the peace process. But despite, the assassination of Rabin being blamed on incitement by right-wing politicians such as Netanyahu, and opinion polls showing that Peres was in the lead, there was a last-minute shift in voters’ opinion after a series of terrorist attacks by Hamas.

These attacks provided fodder for Netanyahu to justify his strong opposition of the Oslo accord and to despise Peres as a weak leader who couldn’t protect Israel from attacks. When elections did eventually take place, Netanyahu won by a slight margin in a surprise victory that made him Israel’s youngest Prime Minister at the age of 46. Because of his strong nationalistic views, he drew most of his votes from the ultra-orthodox community while Peres was supported by Israeli Arabs.

Just months after his election, criminal charges were launched against Netanyahu for appointing Mr Robin Bar-On, who was a lawyer with close links with Likud Party, as Attorney General. This he did, intending to facilitate a plea bargain for his political ally called Aryeh Deri who was facing corruption charges. Although Netanyahu later admitted that he erred in making the appointment he absolved himself from any crime arguing, “This error was inflated totally out of proportion by our political reasons”.On April 21, 1997, the charges against Netanyahu were dropped by Israel state prosecutors who said that they didn’t have enough evidence to prosecute him, even though they believed that there was a “tangible suspicion about the propriety of his role in the affair.”

But this was only a temporary reprieve, as scandals and controversies continued to follow Netanyahu throughout his multiple terms as prime minister. In February this year, Israel’s Attorney General announced that he would face charges of bribery and breach of trust concerning three cases, pending a final hearing. It is alleged that he received gifts from wealthy businessmen and granted favours to be given positive coverage in the press. This comes as dramatic recordings which are part of the investigations revealed how Netanyahu threatened an Israeli newspaper with retaliation with all the tools at his disposal if he was not given favourable coverage. But in his usual stoic manner, he has rubbished the allegations terming them as baseless.

Adding to his string of predicaments is his failure to form a government after the just concluded elections. The responsibility has now been transferred to his main rival, Benny Gantz. If he also fails then parliament could be asked to provide a third candidate in a final bid to avoid a repeat election. But sources intimate that Gantz is likely to form a minority coalition with the sole intention of ousting Netanyahu and not to govern. However, Netanyahu has vowed to fight such an arrangement by taking the battle to the people.

The truth is that storm clouds have now gathered over Netanyahu’s political horizon and are threatening to send him to political oblivion. He knows very well that losing his grip on power would also make him susceptible to prosecution. One thing that cannot be ignored in all these is the cult-like support Netanyahu enjoys among Israelis

L'articolo Is This the End of Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

A meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and rival party leader Benny Gantz ended Sunday without a conclusive plan to form the nation’s next government. The 10-year incumbent was handed the mandate following Israel’s second election this year, but failed to form a government amid a sharply divided Knesset. Consequently, he returned the mandate to Israel’s President, Reuven Rivlin, who then tasked Benny Gantz, chairman of the Blue and White party with succeeding where Netanyahu failed. 

Gantz is poised to potentially become the first prime minister since Netanyahu took the reins in 2009, but that possibility is a continued point of debate for negotiations between both sides. One option put forward is that the two leaders could take turns ruling, but that too raises the question of who will lead first, Netanyahu or Gantz? Concurrent to their meeting Sunday, negotiators from both parties also held discussions in an attempt to reach a workable framework. While Blue and White holds 33 seats, one more than Netanyahu’s Likud, the prime minister also insists on representing a larger coalition of conservative members of parliament, totaling 55 seats, which still does not constitute a 61-seat majority. 

The push for a unity deal, which both sides favor, is the last countermeasure to prevent a new election, which would be Israel’s third this year. 

“The two discussed the structure of political options available,” a joint statement read following the meeting of Gantz and Netanyahu. “Another meeting is anticipated between the two.” 

Although they agree a unity is required, Gantz continued to refuse to serve under a Netanyahu-led Knesset while the prime minister is engaged in a legal battle over corruption charges. An indictment is possible within the coming weeks, but the current law does not forbid Netanyahu from continuing to serve during the court battle. The Blue and White party is reportedly considering legislation to change that, which would force him to step down should an indictment be filed. 

Netanyahu faces three criminal charges. In Cases 1.000 and 2,000, he is charged with fraud and breach of trust, and in Case 4.000 he is facing charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. Netanyahu already scored an early victory in reducing the charge of the first case from bribery during pre-indictment hearings. For Blue and White to successfully pass a bill requiring the prime minister to relinquish his post, it will need a majority. Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avidgor Liberman could play a part in uniting with Blue and White to bring the votes it needs, but it may be unwilling to face the backlash that would come with it. 

Liberman has maintained that he supports a unity government, but the bill would cast him in a different light. He has also refrained from criticizing Netanyahu on the basis of the charges, signaling that he it would not be an issue he would be willing to lead his party against. 

However, the Yisrael Beitenu party would be a strong fit for a coalition against Likud as it is highly secular. Lieberman also has a history of opposing a Netanyahu after refusing to join his bloc following the April elections. That action cost Netanyahu a parliamentary majority and forced another election in September. Still, Lieberman also refused to endorse Gantz, a move that has put the party at the center of the government’s paralysis. 

Gantz is scheduled to meet with Lieberman on Monday and other minority party leaders throughout the week. 

For Netanyahu, the future is even less certain than that of Israel’s government and the process will be considerably more drawn-out. If convicted of his charges, he could certainly face jail time, but that possibility is limited. Previously, the prime minister had hoped to form a government that would pass legislation preventing his indictment, however when that did not occur, he was left to face the judicial process. There exists a recent precedent of sorts when his wife, Sara, was charged with smilier crimes. She ultimately struck a plea deal that saved her from serving prison time. 

Netanyahu could look to make a similar deal if conviction appears imminent. Even if he does not serve jail time, there is the question of his political future. This year’s elections have shown that his influence is waning as Likud continued to lose more seats. Netanyahu has been a staple of Israeli politics for two decades, so there would be an undeniable void without him. However Israel has made clear, twice now this year, that it is prepared to move on. Politics is a difficult game without being a convicted criminal; Netanyahu must realize how much that difficulty would increase upon a possible conviction. 

Barring a return to the office of prime minister, he could serve Likud in another capacity, such as an advisor or party official. Despite criminal convictions, he would still carry weight for the conservative faction of Israeli politics, the question is would it be willing to carry Netanyahu? 

L'articolo Netanyahu And Gantz Meet To Form Unity Government proviene da InsideOver.