Israel’s Blue and White party was formed in the run up to the April 2019 Knesset elections with the aim of defeating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Its formation was necessitated by the need to present a united front in the election by bringing together the centrist parties, primarily Benny Gantz’s Resilience Party, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Moshe Ya’lon’s Telem.

Blue and White’s Core Mission

At its inauguration the alliance described itself as a pluralistic party alliance representing all citizens on the political and religious spectrum of Israeli society. Its name Blue and White is derived from Israel’s national colors, and is colloquially used to portray patriotism.

A manifesto released after Blue and White’s inauguration promised to address “all the essential issues facing the State of Israel and the citizens of Israel … embodying the right of Israeli citizens to live in dignity, security, prosperity and freedom.”

Prior to and after the March 2020 elections Blue and White’s leaders vowed not to serve in the same government as Netanyahu because of the criminal charges facing him. When Netanyahu was indicted Gantz declared, “Netanyahu goes to trial, and we must move forward. Israel’s citizens have a clear choice: a prime minister who will work for them or a prime minister who is preoccupied with himself.”

“No one can run a state and at the same time manage three serious criminal cases for bribery fraud and breach of trust,” Gantz added.

The Pressure to Compromise in the Midst of Electoral Chaos

However, with Israel’s recent third election also ending up in a stalemate, there has been pressure for the leaders to compromise in order to save Israel from another election. Ever since the impasse began in April last year the Israeli government has been unable to carry out key factions as the national parliament — the Knesset — remained dysfunctional.

The emergence of the coronavirus pandemic also compounded the need for a substantive government to tackle the situation. Since Gantz had the support of most political parties, he was entrusted with trying to form a government by president Reuven Rivlin.

However,  any attempts by Gantz to form a minority government were bound to fail for most of parties supporting him resented the participation of the Arab Joint List in any unity government. Gantz himself knew that trying to form a minority government with the support of the Joint List was likely to attract anger among conservatives.

This coupled with the coronavirus emergency, necessitated the need of a unity government that would also involve Netanyahu and his Likud party. But this is was going to be a tough balancing act for the former leader of Israel Defense Forces. He had always promised his supporters not to work with Netanyahu but now the prevailing situation was forcing him to reconsider his stand. To most of his political supporters he would appear as a traitor and a man with no principles

Gantz Denies First Reports of Collaboration to Buy Time

Last week when Netanyahu leaked details about a deal that had been agreed between the Likud and Blue and White, Gantz chose to dismiss it by blaming Netanyahu for dangerous leaks and using threats. It appears that some of his supporters were not aware that the negotiations were at an advanced stage and that Gantz’s denial was only a face-saving tactic.

Most Blue and White members had been strategizing on how to block Netanyahu from participating in a unity government through legislation in the Knesset. To this effect a bill had been brought to parliament to bar anybody facing criminal charges from forming a government. In order to achieve they compelled the pro-Netanyahu Speaker to call for the election for his replacement.

With 61 Knesset members, the pro-Gantz bloc was assured of taking the Speaker’s position and also passing the bill into law. These efforts were being led by Gantz’s running mate in the Blue and White Yair Lapid of the Yesh Taid.

Gantz’s Surprise Move to Become Speaker

But in a surprising twist Gantz submitted his candidature for the position of the speaker, a move that shocked his partners in the Blue and White. Apparently according to sources this was part of the secret agreement between Netanyahu and Gantz as part of the discussion which he had previously denied were taking place.

The initial agreement within the Blue and White was that the speaker should come from the Yesh Atid wing of the alliance. However when the name of Meir Cohen was submitted during negotiations, the Likud rejected it on the grounds that the party was opposed to any government led by Netanyahu.

It was under these circumstances that Gantz found himself as speaker supported by the Likud and his Resilience Party. As speaker he is expected to use his position to continue with negotiations to push legislations that would protect Netanyahu. According to Haaretz he is already in the process of instigating legislation that would allow Netanyahu to serve in government as minister despite his trial.

Indicted Prime Ministers are Barred From Serving

While prime ministers are allowed to continue serving until found guilty, they cannot serve when indicted. Under the new deal that is yet to be finalized, Netanyahu would serve as prime minister while Gantz would serve in the cabinet possibly as deputy prime and Minister of Defense.

After 18 months they would be expected to rotate, with Gantz becoming prime minister and Netanyahu serving as deputy PM and Defense Minister. This is where the challenge lies for Netanyahu who is facing criminal charges and would therefore be barred from serving as deputy prime minister.

It is for this reason that plans to sidestep High Court rulings that bar indicted ministers from serving by redefining the positions of deputy prime minister are at the center of the negotiations. According to Haaretz, Netanyahu and Gantz will promote the legislation in the coming days.

End Result: Bye Bye Blue and White

The result of all these moves is that the Blue and White has now disintegrated. The Yesh Atid and Telem have split away from Gantz’s Isreal Resillience, although Gantz will still technically retain the name Blue and White.

“We formed Blue and White to offer an alternative to the Isreali people. Benny Gntz decided today to break apart Blue and White and crawl into Netanyahu’s government. It’s a disappointing decision,” said Yair Lapid. “What is being formed today isn’t a unity government or an emergency government. It’s another Netanyahu government. Benny Gantz surrendered without a fight and crawled into Netanyahu’s government,” Lapid added.

Moshe Ya’lon the leader of Telem accused Gantz of committing political suicide.

The new government that is expected to be formed by Gantz and Netanyahu is modeled on the unity government between Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir between 1984 and 1988 when the two leaders rotated as prime ministers.

L'articolo Is Israel’s Blue and White Party Finished? proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an interview this weekend in which he claimed that a deal on a unity government between his Likud party and his rival Benny Gantz’s Blue and White has already been reached and is just waiting to be signed. The deal would provide for a rotational premiership between the leaders of the two main parties over a specified period.

More About the Power-Sharing Deal

The power-sharing arrangement would involve the Likud party starting off with the posts of prime minister, finance minister and Knesset speaker, while Blue and White would start with the positions of deputy prime minister and foreign minister. The two parties would hold the positions for one and a half years after which they would rotate.

In a message directed at Gantz, Netanyahu vowed to stick to the deal saying “I will leave office on the agreed date. There will be no shticks and tricks. Millions of Israelis are waiting for us.”

However the claims of a deal were quickly downplayed d by Gantz who said “those who want to unity do not work with ultimatums and harmful leaks and certainly do not try to hurt our democracy and citizens by paralysing the Knesset.”

Gantz’s Position

From Gantz statement one could deduce two important points: one is that while there is the possibility of a deal the details have been leaked too early by Netanyahu. Secondly is that the issue of who will be the speaker of the Knesset continues to present the biggest hurdle in the talks of a unity government.

Israel’s center-left have been mounting pressure on Knesset speaker Yuli Edelstein to organize for the election of a new speaker of the Knesset speaker to allow the formation of the Arrangement Committee . Efforts to replace Edelstein started late last year when the Blue and White accused him of being part of a plot to protect Netanyahu from prosecution through new legislations.

Emboldened with the endorsement  of a number of parties, last week the Blue and White increased pressure on Edelstein to act but he refused. At first Edelstein argued that his refusal was a safety precaution to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in line with social distancing policy, but later on said it was meant to put pressure on Gantz and Netanyahu to compromise.

Gantz: ‘In a Democratic Regime the Legislature Cannot Be Paralyzed’

This prompted the Blue and White to send Edelstein a letter informing him that he had no authority to stop the convening of the Knesset and claiming that his decision was mainly motivated by a personal interest to remain speaker. Adding his voice to the standoff was Gantz who declared, “In a democratic regime, the legislature cannot be paralysed and prevented from expressing the will and the votes of the citizens. Anyone who thinks he can advance us to a borderline dictatorship is mistaken.”

Although  the pro-Gantz legislators are claiming that their goal is to help deal with the current emergency situation caused by the coronavirus, they also have a hidden aim of disqualifying Netanyahu from forming a government because of the charges facing him.

Netanyahu’s Power Bloc: Removing Knesset Speaker Would be a Dealbreaker

A bill that that would prevent anybody facing criminal charges from forming a government has already been submitted by Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beytenu who is now a leading supporter of Gantz. According to the newspaper Ynet Netanyahu’s replacement in any unity government formed would be sought from members of his party serving in the cabinet.

Pro-Netanyahu bloc has warned that a move to remove the speaker would be a red line in the formation of a unity government.

“We seen any attempt to oust the incumbent speaker before a viable government emerges crosses a red line and eliminates the possibility of forming a broad emergency government ”

“These Iranian laws will prevent Prime Minister Netanyahu from serving as prime minister and running for direct ministerial elections , which Lapid scandously plan to hold in in this term already during the crisis,” Likud leaders have said.

Netanyahu Accuses Blue and White Party of Disloyalty and Playing Politics in a Time of National Crisis

Netanyahu himself has decried the plans to oust him saying, “While I am fighting the coronavirus , they Blue and White are trying to topple a prime minister who is steering the ship through a storm.”

But in what is seen as a major victory for the pro-Grantz bloc, the High Court in Jerusalem made a decision this past Sunday wherein they ruled that Knesset speaker Edelstein must organize a parliamentary vote on his replacement by Wednesday.

The Likud legislators have ruled out participating in such a vote accusing the Blue and White party of “dictatorial , destructive conduct.” If they make good their threats and boycott the vote then this will give the pro Gantz faction an opportunity to dominate key committees. With 61 members supporting it, the Blue and White party is already assured of obtaining the speakers position.

Time is Running Out

Gantz has only three weeks remaining to form a government. In recognition of the task that lies ahead of him he recently said, “Since I received the mandate to form a government I have been working — exactly as I promised — to form a wide, stable and statesmanlike government that will know how to deal with the great challenge before us.”

However these efforts are being hampered by the decision of most of his party members and other factions within his blocs not to participate in any government that would involve the Arab Joint List.

L'articolo Political Gamesmanship Heats Up as Israeli Politicians Try to Form a Government proviene da InsideOver.

As Israel’s new political impasse enters its second week after a highly divisive election, a breakthrough seems to be in sight following the endorsement of Benny Gantz by the Arabic Joint List party. The political alliance which is mainly made up of Arab political parties, recommended to President Reuven Rivlin that Gantz be given the mandate to form a government.

Gantz’s Promise

This recommendation resulted in Rivlin officially tasking Gantz with forming a government. While accepting the offer Gantz stated: “I give you my word I will do everything to establish within days, as few as I can, a national government. One that is patriotic and broad as possible.”

The Joint List with its 15 members gives Gantz the much needed boost in forming a government. The Blue and White leader has also received support from former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman of the ultra nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party. In total the pro-Gantz bloc now has a majority of 61 Knesset seats: enough to form a government.

Why is the Joint List Backing Gantz?

However what surprised many was the sudden change of heart by the Joint List politicians to support Gantz despite the deep ideological differences that exist between them. What is clear is that the support is being driven much more by their goal of ousting Benjamin Netanyahu than by any love for Gantz.

The schism between Netanyahu and members of the Joint List stem from the Likud leader’s radical nationalist and religiously hardline policies. Although most leaders of the Joint List are Israelis, they have always been sympathetic to the Palestinian causes apart from fighting for their own rights as Israeli Arabs.

Exacerbating these tensions is Netanyahu’s ongoing incitement of anti-Arab sentiments in his attempts to win right wing support. Last year his official Facebook account was suspended for hate speech over a post that stated that Israel’s Arab politicians “want to destroy us all.”

Joint List’s Past Support for Gantz

It is not the first time the Joint List is endorsing Gantz. Following the September 2019 election the alliance recommended to the president that Gantz should be given the first opportunity to form a government. As Joint List leader Ayman Odeh stated in an op-ed in the New York Times, his party supports Gantz was because “it would create the majority needed to prevent another term for Netanyahu. It should be the end of his political career.”

But despite the 2019 endorsement Gantz refused to give any public comment as the pro-Netanyahu camp heightened its smear campaign against him. Gantz’s real stance on the Joint List has always been murky. This has mainly been influenced by the fear of a backlash from the conservatives who distrust the alliance because of its support for the Palestinians. At the same time for the sake of political expediency and in his attempts to forge political unity he has been very measured in his statements touching on the Joint List.

Gantz: ‘This Incitement Campaign is Inappropriate and Wrong’

Late last year when Netanyahu made a speech in parliament accusing the Joint List members of the Knesset of being terrorists, Gantz stood in opposition to the remarks stating,”I do not accept the incitement that was directed against Knesset members who are his political rivals.” He continued, “In general, I do not accept the incitement that was directed against Arab members of the Knesset who represent a public that is a legitimate part of the State of Israel. This incitement campaign is inappropriate and wrong.”

This moderate stand on the Joint List has often given Netanyahu ammunition to attack Gantz as a terrorist sympathizer. Just after Joint List endorsement in September, Netanyahu issued a statement saying he was seeking to form “a minority government that relies on those who reject Israel as a Jewish state and glorify terrorists who murder our soldiers and civilians.”

Netanyahu’s Angry Denunciation of Gantz: He Supports ‘Arab Politicians Who Want to Destroy Us All’

In fact part of the Facebook post that led to the suspension of Netanyahu’s account rallied his supporters to “prevent the formation of a dangerous left wing government whose Jewish leaders would rely on the support of Arab politicians who want to destroy us all, women, children and men, and enable a nuclear Iran that would wipe us out.”

In the run up to the March 2020 elections because of the concerted efforts by Netanyahu to link him with the Joint List, Gantz declared that he would not accept the support of the group. “I am not afraid to speak to any legitimate political party, but the Joint List will not be part of the government I form,” he said. “My disagreements with its leadership on national and security issues are deep, difficult and unbridgeable.”

By the same token, Joint List leader Ayman Odeh had ruled out supporting Gantz unless he dropped certain elements of Donald Trump’s Middle East peace plan, such as the transfer of Arab Israeli to a Palestinian state and the imposition of Isreali sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and areas of the West Bank.

The Joint-List and Gantz Agreement

However the two sides seem to have now dropped their har-line stances in their efforts to remove Netanyahu and to avoid a fourth election. The leaders of the two organizations held a meeting during which Gantz stated that he intends to form a government that serves Jews and Arabs, while Odeh tweeted, “We stick to our goal of replacing Netanyahu’s legacy, and it starts by respecting the united voice of the Arab public and our Jewish partners.”

It remains to be seen how the pro-Gantz political parties will work together in a Gantz-led government. Traditionally the Joint List members have always refused to serve in the government since they feel that would be akin to endorsing Israel’s policies on Palestine. On the other hand, Lieberman who has previously also endorsed Netanyahu, has vowed not to serve in a government with the Joint List. Therefore, the most likely scenario would be for the Joint List to support the government from outside.

L'articolo Why is Israel’s Arab Joint List Party Now Supporting Benny Gantz? proviene da InsideOver.

On March 3 just after polling closed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters went into a frenzy. Exit polls showed the Likud Party and its allies were just one seat short of the number required to form a government. The exit polls predicted a total of 60 seats for the pro-Netanyahu Right-wing and 54 seats for the centre-left bloc leaning towards Benny Gantz.

Netanyahu: ‘The Victory This Time is Sweeter’

“Dear Likud members, citizens of isreal , when the month of Adar begins, joy is increasing. And what a joy we we have tonight. It is a huge victory tonight. My friends we have been marching together for many years now. I remember the victory in 1996, but the victory this time is sweeter,” declared Netanyahu.

In reference to charges of corruption and bribery facing him he said.”We were facing tremendous forces. Our rivals said, ‘the Netanyahu era is over.’ We turned the lemons into lemonade.”

What Victory?

As it turned out, Netanyahu had celebrated too early. Two days later an announcement of final yet unofficial results by the Central Elections Committee placed the number of seats won by the right-wing at 58, two seats below what the exit poll had predicted .

The breakdown of the Pro-Netanyahu bloc was: Likud 36, Shas 9, United Torah Judaism 7 and Yamina 6. The opposition had a total of 62 seats, with Blue and White getting 33 seats, Labor Meretz 7, Yisrael Beiteinu Party 7 and the Joint Arab List 15.

Despite failing to garner the 61 seats needed to form a government, Netanyahu has continued to claim victory, emphasizing that Likud had won the election in a knockout and accusing his opponents of “trying to steal the decision from the masses of Israeli citizens who gave the Likud under his leadership a crushing victory.”

Gantz: ‘The Decision of Voters Must Be Respected’

Netanyahu’s claims have attracted a quick rejoinder from Gantz who warned that “in a democratic country , election results and the decision of the voters must be respected.” Ganz has also accused the Prime Minister of dangerous incitement against him. He pointed out the assassination of prime minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995 which he claimed was caused by the incitement of Netanyahu was the serving as the leader of the opposition at that time.

Taking to his Twitter handle he wrote, “Bibi we saw what happened when the incitement was out of control and no one stopped it in 1995. If you think that your threats will stop us you are making a bad mistake. You are only showing how important it is to replace you.”

“If we don’t wake up, the next political assassination is around the corner,” Gantz added.

How Will Israel’s Next Government be Formed?

These mudslinging, accusations and counter accusations will even be more heightened in the coming days as the two leaders position themselves to form a government. In normal circumstances the responsibility of forming the government usually goes to the leader of the party with most number of Knesset seats. But without a clear winner, it will be upon President Reuven Rivlin to choose a leader who will try to form a government.

What happens next is that the election results will be submitted to Rivlin who after consultation with the Knesset , will come up with the name of a leader who will attempt to form a government.

As things stand now the anti Netanyahu coalition has a total of 62 seats , which are enough to enable Gantz to form a government . The only barrier to this is the strong divisions among them. While Avigdor Lieberman now supports Gantz for premiership, he has a very hostile relations with the Joint List which has a total of 15 seats. The Joint List  on the other hand has  insisted that it wont seat in any government with Lieberman.

“We will not allow Lieberman to become a minister .We will not surrender our role as a legitimate group in politics,” Ayman Odeh the party leader said. Part of the disagreement emanates from Lieberman’s support for the transfer of Arab settlements near the Green Line into a future Palestine state.

The party has also urged Benny Gantz to drop the idea of a Jewish majority and the extension of Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria as a precondition of forming any coalition government with him. These clashes of views rules out the possibility of Joint List supporting Gantz. This position is further strengthened by Gantz’s  remarks just before the election that he wouldn’t partner with the Joint List which is predominantly Arab.

Netanyahu’s Options Going Forward

For Netanyahu, one of the options available to him is forming a narrow coalition by attracting defectors from the opposition. His allies are already trying to convince individual defectors from the smaller parties on the center-left. If this fails then he could negotiate with one of the opposition parties especially Yisrael Bietenu to back him. Unfortunately Liberman the party leader has ruled out such a possibility. Instead, according to reliable reports, he will be recommending the name of Gantz to the president and assessing him as the best candidate to form a government.

Perhaps the best way out of the deadlock would be for the formation of a unity government. This will, however, be a very complicated process which is bound to fail. Gantz has ruled out being part of any unity government involving Netanyahu because of the criminal charges facing him. One of the scheme that has been crafted by his allies is for the introduction of a bill barring indicted individuals from serving as prime minister.

The aim of the bill that is being fronted by Blue and White is to block Netanyahu from forming the government and to compel him to join a unity government led by Gantz. According to  sources in Blue and White the bill would not be enacted retroactively, but “would be designed to pressure the Likud party to accept the formation of a unity government” under the conditions of Blue and Whites.

No matter the extent of the negotiations, it will require much more than political alignments for Israel to break out of  the deadlock that has been  running for almost a year now.  Israeli leaders will need to compromise by stepping  down from their hard-line positions and to sacrifice their own political ambitions in order for Israel to move forward.

L'articolo Another Israeli Election, Another Deadlock — What’s Next? proviene da InsideOver.

With just days to go before its third election on March 2, Israel is staring at yet another stalemate as opinions polls indicate that there will be no clear winner. This will be a major blow to embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who had hoped that Trump’s Middle East peace plan would boost his chances of winning.

Current Forecast for Israel’s Upcoming Election

The Channel 13 poll predicted 36 Knesset seats for the Blue and White while is projected to receive Likud 33. The overall bloc of religious and right wing parties supporting Netanyahu was put at 54 while those supporting Benny Gantz was put at 58. Ironically when the respondent were asked on who was best suited to become Prime Minister, 45% supported Netanyahu while 33% were for Gantz

Another poll by Walla news site, also predicted a deadlock with the Likud at 33 and Blue and White at 34. The survey also showed that 54% of the respondents were against a minority government led by Gantz even if it was the only way to stop Israel going to the elections for the first time, while 28% said they would support such a government. Just like in the Channel 13 poll, when the respondent were asked on who was best suited to lead the government, 43% said Netanyahu while 35% were for Gantz.

Troubles Ahead for Gantz

However the better performance of the Blue and White as shown by the opinions polls could be at risk following the decision of Israel prosecutor to open criminal investigations on a company once headed by Gantz. The Fifth Dimension Cybersecurity company is being accused of signing a multi-million deal with Israel police without a public tender.

Although Gantz is not a suspect, he oversaw the company until it went bankrupt. He has, however, denied any wrong doing saying “ It all sounds like political pressure to get this thing on the public agenda. I am totally at ease. This was checked in the past and no criminal suspicion was found.”

Many Leftist commentators have seen the prosecutor’s move as an attempt to harm Gantz campaigns . Among those who are seeking to capitalize on the accusations for political mileage is Netanyahu who declared that the Blue and Whites can no longer talk about clean governance. “Benny Gantz and the Fifth Dimension company he led are the subject of a serious criminal investigation for misleading the police,” he said.

With the elections being just days away this mudslinging could as well help turn the tide against the Blues and Whites under Gantz.New polls released early today by channel 12 and Kan have showed Likud pulling ahead of the Blues and Whites for the first time in what many believe could be as a result of the recent accusations against a company once associated with Gantz.

Polls Are Shifting Daily

According to the poll, Likud went up by 1 digit to 34 , while Blue and White went down to 33. Almost Similar results were projected by Kan poll which showed Likud at 35 and Blue and White at 34.

The Channel 12 poll further showed that a pro-Netanyahu coalition of Likud and right wing parties, would have 57 seats in the Knesset , while a coalition of Blue and White and left wing political parties would give Gantz 50 seats. But the results still show a stalemate since  the required number of seats to form a government is 61.

One way of coming out out of the impasse, would be the formation of a unity government. But forming such a government will be a complex task. Although Gantz has expressed his willingness to form a unity government with Likud , he has maintained that he wouldn’t do so if Netanyahu remains as the Likud party leader.

“He is going to go to trial . Imagine that while he is preparing for trial with a battery of lawyer on important issues from his personal point of view , and then the chief of staff wants to hold a very urgent discussion at night on a matter of security.” Gantz told Channel 13.

Gantz could as well garner enough members to form a government if he accepts the support of the Joint List Alliance which is predominantly Arab. The leader of the Joint List, Ayman Odeh, has committed to offer him support on condition that he denounces certain elements of Israel-Palestine peace plan such as the transfer of Arabs Israeli towns to a Palestinian state. Gantz has however rejected the offer saying “ I will not sit with the joint list and I do not need their support.”

According to the latest opinion polls, by Channel 12 Joint List is likely to get 13 seat in the Knesset. With the same poll predicting 50 seats for Blue and White and its allies, support by the Joint List would push the number seats to 64, three seats more than the 61 required to form a majority government.

Nevertheless with another impasse looming, Netanyahu and Gantz will have to put their personal ambitions aside and put the interest of the country first. For one year now Israel has been without a functioning government. This is likely to continue if no party wins enough votes to form a government.

In such a situation, instead of the country going into a fourth election, Netanyahu will have to step down to allow for the formation of a new government. After all, his corruption trial starts just two weeks after the elections.

L'articolo Stalemate Looms as Israel Prepares for Yet Another Election proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s gamble to call a March election may be the riskiest decision he has made in his political career so far. The polls so far have been close for the current Prime Minister as the Walla news site discovered in December that 38 percent of people believe that Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White Party, is better suited to be Prime Minister, while 37 percent say Netanyahu is better for the role.

In a devastating blow to the Likud Party before the March poll, 41 percent of respondents blame the Prime Minister for the reasons why a third election has been called, whilst only 6 percent blame Gantz.

Furthermore, on Monday the Blue and White Party succeeded in voting to form a committee that will debate, and is widely expected to reject, his request for parliamentary immunity. Politicians in the Arrangements Committee voted 16 to 5 in favour of establishing and staffing the crucial House Committee, which will see the Prime Minister’s supporters outnumbered by his opponents on the panel.

The panel is an opportunity for the Blue and White Party to debate and reject Netanyahu’s request within three weeks, with time to spare before the March 2nd election. Likud sources told The Times of Israel that they will attempt to delay the process by tying it up in court and with other obstacles, hoping to push it past March 2nd, which is when a new Knesset will be voted in.

But the Likud Party may find that their electoral fortunes, and their leader’s chances of surviving impeachment, have been slightly thwarted. Labor Leader Amir Peretz and Meretz Chairman Nitzan Horowitz have reached an agreement to run together in the March election. This will have an impact on the upcoming poll and could benefit Gantz more than his rival.

Neither Labor nor Meretz will drop below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold. If neither party failed to gain enough votes to make it into the Knesset, more than 100,000 left-wing ballots would have been wasted. This would have made it almost impossible for the Blue and White Party to form a government.

The reason why this provides Gantz with a substantial electoral advantage is because he no longer has to worry about stealing votes away from the left to win more seats than Likud.

Netanyahu will have to work harder to defeat Gantz and push for unity on the right. That could mean Defence Minister Naftali Bennett and far-right Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir finding a way to temporarily coexist in one party. If both leaders do collaborate, the Prime Minister has a chance of surviving this poll. But until they do, this is a significant blow for Likud.

Peretz and Horowitz both took a calculated risk by making a deal, because they know their respective parties will end up with fewer MKs for their parties in the next Knesset. However, their top priority is ensuring Netanyahu does not form the next government. This moment will be remembered as a turning point in Israel’s third election in less than a year.

If the Labor-Meretz deal results in a Blue and White-led government, Netanyahu’s immunity will be lifted as Gantz’s primary motivation is to ensure he is impeached. Likud will no longer have the numbers to delay this process. If the House Committee votes to lift the Likud Leader’s immunity before that, his chances of surviving are even slimmer.

If the Prime Minister hopes to survive impeachment, Bennett and Ben-Gvir need to form a deal to unite the right-wing vote. Netanyahu is a remarkable political survivor and he could find a way to escape this process, or his luck may have just ran out this time.

L'articolo The Factors Making Netanyahu’s Impeachment More Likely proviene da InsideOver.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again proved his popularity by decisively winning Likud party primaries held Dec. 27, despite the corruption charges facing him. Netanyahu got 41, 792 votes, which was 72.5 percent of the total votes cast, while Gideon Saar got 15,885 representing 27.5 percent of the total votes.

Following his victory Netanyahu declared, “A huge win!, Thankyou to all members of the Likud for the trust, support and the love. I will lead the Likud to a big win in the upcoming elections, and we will continue to lead the State of Israel to incredible achievement.”

Netanyahu Is Still The King Of Likud

According to Israeli political analyst Mayer Cohen, the landslide victory was proof that Netanyahu has no contender within the Likud despite the corruption charges against him and his failure to form a government twice. Looking at Netanyahu’s popularity, a Gallup poll released in January 2019, found that Netanyahu’s popularity continued to rise despite the controversy surrounding him.

“Even under the shadow of corruption allegations that could end with his indictment, Israel’s long-time leader , Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to remain popular,” explained R.J. Reinhart an analyst and editor of Gallup.com said at that time.

According to the survey which was conducted after news broke out that Israeli police had enough evidence to indict him for bribery, 51 percent of those interviewed expressed confidence in the work Netanyahu was doing as prime minister. The approval ratings were almost similar to the ones he had received in 2017. However despite the high approval ratings, the same survey showed that nearly three in four Israelis, that’s a whopping 73 percent, were of the opinion that corruption was widespread in the government.

Why Do So Many Israelis Still Back Netanyahu?

In essence the message Israelis are expressing is that although they feel Netanyahu’s government has been riddled with corruption they are not ready to abandon him for someone else. Why? It is quite simply because Netanyahu has managed to position himself as the only leader who can protect Israel and has reinforced this by pursuing a close relationship with US President Donald Trump, amplifying the guarantee of US military and security protection for Israel’s expansion. This was evident from Netanyahu’s speech after his last re-election when he declared:

“In the years ahead we will deliver more achievements that could have only have been dreamed of. We will set our final borders: bring about America recognition for Israeli control over the Jordan Valley, the Dead Sea and our sovereignty over every settlement in Judea and Samaria; obtain a defense pact with the US that will ensure Israeli freedom to act; we will defeat Iran and achieve a peace pact with Arab countries,” Netanyahu promised.

In explaining Netanyahu’s characterization of himself as a protector of Israeli journalist Matti Friedman wrote, “he says to Israelis: there’s a room, and In that room are the likes of Putin and Assad and Khamenei. Who do you want in there? A straight shooter who believes in the fundamental goodness of humanity? Or your most wily representative? Many Israelis say yes, the latter. That’s who we want in that room.”

Netanyahu: An Unapologetic Nationalist From A Military Family

Netanyahu’s nationalistic views resonates well with Israel’s right wing who also see him as the only leader who they can trust with their security owing to his family’s military background. The Israeli right have always been a key support base for Netanyahu and he recognized this after his latest victory by stating, “most of the nation supports the right and most of the nation supports me to be Prime Minister. The sweeping victory in the primaries was huge vote of confidence in me and our path.”

According to James Sorene the CEO of the Britain Israel Communication Research Center, and former Head of Communications for UK Deputy Prime Minister, “For Netanyahu’s right wing base the main attraction is the authenticity and veracity of his vision … As an Officer in Israel’s elite Sayeret Matkal Unit, he fought the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) terrorists for years. His brother Yoni’s death in 1976 propelled him onto the public stage as an international anti-terrorist leader.”

In Sorene’s opinion Netanyahu’s support is based on an “Israel consensus that wanted terrorism to end and no longer believed there would be peace with the Palestinians because every territorial concession became a missile launch pad.”

Additional Reasons For Israeli Support Of Netanyahu

Netanyahu has also presided over a booming Israeli economy, further bolstering his support among Israelis. With their security guaranteed the economy became the major concern for most Israelis, who now rank it as their number one priority. Currently, Israeli unemployment rate is close to record lows and the economy has shown solid economic growth throughout Netanyahu’s period in office according to data from the Financial Times.

Between 2003 and 2005 when Netanyahu was Israel’s finance minister he was credited with putting in place measures that shielded Israel’s economy from the impacts of the second Palestinian uprising (Second Intifada) particularly in the West Bank and Gaza strip. Investment, tourism and businesses continued to thrive despite regular attacks.

According to the Financial Times Netanyahu also “halved subsidies for the unemployed and cut child assistance payments, pushing people into the job market. He continued a privatization drive that he had kick started in his first run as Prime Minister in the mid 1990s.The combined impact on revenues and the deficit shielded Israel’s strictly regulated bank from the 2008 financial crisis.”

“It was pure right-wing economics: cutting welfare, privatization, and Israel is still reaping the benefits from bold decisions he made years ago,” Michael Sarel the former chief economist of the Israeli Treasury told the paper.

In summary, Netanyahu’s biographer Pfeffer Anshel says the Israeli leader has been able to enjoy unbridled support because “he has delivered ten years of relative calm and economic prosperity, has a strong right-wing base and a lack of alternatives.”

L'articolo Why Netanyahu Is Still Popular In Israel proviene da InsideOver.

The situation facing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is looking increasingly desperate. He is being challenged from within his own Likud Party by a Member of the Knesset (MK) called Gideon Sa’ar. He has warned the Prime Minister that he has no chance of forming a government and that Netanyahu would lose a third election, which is more than likely to happen in March 2020 now. This has left him with no choice but to concede to a leadership election if a third poll happens.

David Shimron, the Prime Minister’s cousin, has already been indicted for corruption in relation to a contentious £1.5 billion deal to buy German submarines. Meanwhile, Netanyahu himself is being investigated for bribery, fraud and breach of trust by Avichai Mandelblit, Israel’s Attorney General.

Both the Prime Minister and Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White Party, failed to form a coalition government before Wednesday’s deadline. The Blue and White leader called on Netanyahu to ‘serve as an example’ by resigning his post and allowing his immunity to public prosecution be removed. However, one institutional body may find itself having to resolve this crisis: Israel’s High Court.

Many hi-tech businessmen started a new petition running in parallel to the one already filed by the Movement for the Quality of Government in Israel to the High Court and an anticipated future petition by the Labor Party.

Although Mandelblit is protecting the Prime Minister by analysing whether he can form a new government whilst being indicted for bribery, he has ruled that the issue can be ‘kicked down the road’ because it is only theoretical.

But many of these businessmen argue that the situation is concrete, and not theoretical because electors should know whether Netanyahu has the legal means to form a government before they vote. Some of these officials include Dr Orna Bari, Shai Weininger and Pinhas Buchris. They are being represented by Daphna Holech-Lechner, who has been involved in other substantial High Court cases.

Fortunately for these hi-tech giants, the High Court’s powers have not been curbed yet and it is an effective means to maintain the balance of power in Israel. It is only fair that the judiciary should be allowed to intervene in this case. Earlier this year, Netanyahu wanted to introduce a bill to prevent the court from interfering in his decision to stop Palestinians from participating in a joint Memorial Day ceremony.

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the High Court defended Israeli citizens from successive governments clamping down on their right to freedom of speech and freedom to demonstrate. They also reduced military censorship and limited the use of certain military methods. Therefore, Israel’s judiciary guards citizens against excessive political power.

The judiciary is the only independent branch of government that can ensure Netanyahu is proved guilty or innocent in his impeachment inquiry. The Prime Minister’s bill would also mean that he would have had permanent immunity from corruption charges, even though there is a strong chance that he is guilty. This would have destroyed the High Court.

It is also one of the few institutions left in Israel that is trusted among its population. According to a 2017 poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, the majority of Jewish (57 per cent) and Arab (54 per cent) Israelis believe in the High Court. If it was prevented from intervening in the Netanyahu case and he was found guilty of all his charges, this would damage Israelis’ trust in their political system.

The High Court should intervene in the Prime Minister’s impeachment inquiry. As Netanyahu’s bill to reduce the judiciary’s role in the Israeli constitution did not pass, nothing is preventing them from doing so. For the sake of transparency and fairness in Israeli democracy, the hi-tech officials’ petition should be approved.

L'articolo Should Israel’s High Court Intervene Over the Netanyahu Case? proviene da InsideOver.

“There won’t be anything, because there wasn’t anything,” he said time and again. But in a bombshell intervention last week, Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand-picked attorney general begged to differ. Indicted on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, Israel’s longest-serving premier is fighting for his political life. And fight he will – despite mounting calls for his resignation to clear the nation’s chronic electoral impasse, ‘Bibi’ has sworn to battle on. 

Thursday’s shock announcement has inflamed the political crisis gripping Israel. For months the country has been without a government, with two successive elections failing to break the deadlock. Benny Gantz, Netanyahu’s main rival, had hoped his centrist Blue and White party might form the elusive majority – but he too conceded defeat last week. Israel’s Knesset parliament now has three weeks to find a way forward, lest voters return to the polls for a third time. 

Netanyahu’s indictment – the first against a sitting Israeli prime minister – has only fanned the political flames. But he’s in no mood to back down. Denying all allegations in a blistering response video, Bibi attacked the judiciary’s apparent political motivations, accusing judges of an “attempted coup”. The charges range from more minor infractions – receiving luxury gifts from wealthy individuals – to the utmost serious: bribery in return for favourable media coverage.

Yet, despite the gravity of the indictment, Netanyahu faces no legal obligation to step down, and could, in theory, still strive to form a government over the next 21 days. He’s failed in that endeavour twice already, and now facing criminal prosecution, the 70-year-old’s coalition-building credibility is frailer than ever. Public opinion seems to be turning against the prime minister too, with 56% of Israelis believing he must now resign.

But among the Likud party faithful, Netanyahu’s unassailable stature appears intact. His strengths in security and economic policy outweigh any allegations of malfeasance, most on Israel’s Right will reason. One government minister, Amir Ohana, expressed his pride in all Likud parliamentarians for standing by their man – “except for two,” he added pointedly. 

Gideon Sa’ar is doubtless one of these. A rising star in the party, the 52-year-old has made no secret of his lofty ambitions, calling on Netanyahu to face him in a leadership contest (a challenge the prime minister has, in principle, acceded to). Untarnished by decades in office, Sa’ar believes he can offer Likud lawmakers what Bibi demonstrably cannot: a reasonable chance at bridging the political divide and forming a government. 

Even if Sa’ar were to lose a primary race, his card would be marked for the future, experts believe. “He is calculating that a strong showing would allow him to position himself as the natural successor to lead the party,” says Natan Sachs of The Brookings Institution, a research group. 

But with Netanyahu’s grip on power unyielding, succession may be years away. Fighting yet another election seems an extraordinary enterprise – even without the baggage of a serious indictment. But the other option, bowing out, is not in Bibi’s playbook. He wants to prove that the system is flawed, that Israel’s judicial institutions have overstepped the mark. Doing so will involve an ugly, internecine battle; but so be it. 

And he has another more practical reason to fight on: the prospect of immunity. As prime minister, he is significantly more likely to receive legal protection from the Knesset during his prosecution. Given the 10 year sentence he faces if found guilty, that is a lifeline Netanyahu cannot afford to lose.

But the charges against him will be easy game for Gantz and others should a third election be called. And even if Netanyahu triumphed in another public poll, it remains unclear whether he could take office while on trial. Who takes up the mantle of assembling a government is in the gift of President Reuven Rivlin, who could well baulk at selecting a suspected criminal. Bibi would, of course, challenge such a ruling, ultimately pushing the final decision to the courts – setting the stage for an even greater constitutional showdown.

So, all told, Israel’s political future is far from clear. Netanyahu will fight on, that’s for certain, but the forces of opposition are amassing.

L'articolo Netanyahu Indicted For Bribery And Fraud – But He Pledges To Fight On proviene da InsideOver.

The Israeli prime minister’s political career seems to be on the ropes after the country’s Chief Justice indicted him with charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. It is the first time in the history of the Jewish state that a sitting prime minister has been charged with crime. Despite his indictment, Netanyahu has vowed to stay put instead accusing the Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit and the police of plotting to remove him from office.

“A day in which the Attorney General decides to serve an indictment against a seated prime minister for serious crimes of corrupt governance is a heavy and sad day for the Israeli public and me personally,” said Netanyahu. On his part, the Attorney General Mandelbeit has denied that his actions were politically motivated, insisting that he was only carrying out duties bestowed on him by his office.

The Attorney General had delayed announcing Netanyahu’s indictment until Benjamin Gantz failed to form a government. This was to avoid accusations of interfering in the political process. However, his decision comes at a critical time when the country is experiencing an intense political turmoil that has seen the main political parties fail to form a government after a closely contested election.

The charges now makes it difficult for Netanyahu to form a government before or after the election. Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin had initially suggested a compromise plan of forming a government of National Unity, composed of Likud and the Blue and White parties. Under his plan, which was also supported by Avigdor Lieberman of Our Home Party, Netanyahu of Likud was to serve as Prime Minister with Benny Grantz of Blue and Whites serving as his deputy.

The plan further suggested that in case, Netanyahu was indicted, Gantz was to take over until the trial was completed. But the possibility of a unity government are now off the table as Gantz has insisted that he will never form a coalition government with a prime minister who is facing criminal charges. This was evident from his statement in which he condemned Netanyahu for refusing to resign saying that the “Prime Minister has no public or moral mandate to make fateful decisions for the state of Israel.”

Similar views were echoed by lawmaker Tamar Zandberg of the left-wing Democratic Union who said, “The Prime Minister cannot serve even one more day. He must resign this very evening. He has no mandate to run the state. If he does not do this, no one should agree to sit in his government or his party. He should not run for election and cannot receive a mandate to form a government. He must leave public life immediately,”

One key fact is that Netanyahu is a leading protagonist and a hardliner in the current political deadlock. Therefore loosening his grip on power would soften up the current political impasse, leading to a breakthrough in the formation of a unity government.

Gantz has already expressed his willingness to form a government with any other leader from the Likud party but not Netanyahu. Being one of the main political figures, any compromise plan without Netanyahu would benefit him to a great extent.

But is there any likelihood of Netanyahu loosening his grip on power especially after he defiantly refused to resign? The most probable chances would be through legal and political means.

Removing him as the leader of the Likud Party would, without doubt, disqualify him from leading any government. This could involve his party members voting him out of office through primaries, or defecting to Gantz’s side to form a government of national unity. Already some disgruntled members have been calling for party primaries to elect new leaders. Just hours before the indictment Gideon Sa’ar, the second senior-most leader in Likud had declared his readiness to challenge Netanyahu and form a government.

But as the Likud party leader, Netanyahu wields great influence and loyalty among members and removing him from office would be a tall order. Furthermore, as chairman, he has the final say on when the primaries should be held.

Legal channels could involve citizens petitioning the High Court to prohibit Netanyahu from getting a new mandate to form a government due to the indictment. However, one party official expressed his scepticism that a court would prevent Netanyahu from heading under indictment charges “because the law doesn’t touch on premiership status in an interim government.”

A Supreme Court Ruling of 1993 that directed the then Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin to fire indicted ministers could also offer good legal grounds to get rid of Netanyahu. Under Section 18 of Israel Basic Law, the prime minister can only resign after a conviction and not during the indictment. However using the 1993, the High Court can argue that if indicted ministers were forced to resign, the same should be applied to the prime minister, who in this case is Netanyahu.

This would be backed with the argument that Netanyahu’s refusal to resign after being indicted and amid legal proceedings would seriously affect his ability to carry out his public duties as prime minister. However, some legal experts would argue that there’s a difference between a prime minister and a minister, as the former is not appointed but elected.

Netanyahu is desperate to remain in office to fight the charges, since as prime minister he is not required to resign in case of criminal charges. What he is likely to do is use his powers as prime minister to request immunity from parliament. This has to be done within 30 days after the indictment according to the laws.

In case he doesn’t submit the request, the parliament’s House Committee would convene to deliberate on whether he should be granted one. The House Committee’s final decision would then be put to vote in parliament. The only limitation to this is that no new House Committee has been appointed since April this year due to the political deadlock that preceded the elections. This means that the question of whether Netanyahu should be granted immunity cannot be discussed in parliament until a new committee is appointed.

This also means that that the indictment against him cannot be filed, and the court wouldn’t be able to start the trial. According to HAARETZ, parliament could appoint a House Committee specifically to consider Netanyahu’s request for immunity.

But even if parliament decides to grant him immunity, Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit or any other citizen could appeal the decision to the High Court which could end up overturning the decision. Similarly, Netanyahu can also appeal to the High Court if parliament rejects his request for immunity.

What is evident from all this is that Netanyahu’s morality as a leader is in doubt. As prime minister he is facing enormous political and legal hurdles.  This could embolden and influence his rivals both in the Likud and the opposition party to gang up and form a coalition government thus breaking the current political deadlock.

L'articolo The Indictment of Netanyahu Could Break Political Stalemate proviene da InsideOver.