Recent developments in Libya are setting the ground for a renewed cycle of violence. While both sides are gradually fueling the tension, UN and international concerns are focused on the potential failure of the ongoing peace process.

Haftar Reacts Angrily to Turkey’s Libya Troop Extension

On the day marking the 69th anniversary of Libyan Independence, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar stated that as long as Turkish Forces remain stationed in Libya, there will be no peace in the country. As predicted, Turkey’s Grand National Assembly recently approved a bill extending deployment of Turkish troops in Libya for another 18 months.

In his inflammatory remarks, Haftar stated that Ankara should withdraw its forces, otherwise the “Libyan people would by force drive out the colonizing force.” With these words, the Benghazi-based Libyan strongman indirectly passed an ultimatum to Turkey at a point where there is no chance that Ankara would back down. This highlights the fragility of the ongoing peace process.

Turkey Responds to Haftar’s Demand

Shortly after Haftar’s speech on Dec. 26 there has was a straightforward Turkish response. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar landed in Tripoli accompanied by Turkey’s military leadership in an unscheduled visit to inspect the Turkish Forces based in the country. It was clear that at the same time Akar’s visit was intended to send a message to Haftar, emphasizing that Ankara is ready and committed to fully support Fayez al-Serraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA).

Prior to Akar’s visit, his Libyan counterpart Minister Salahaddin al-Namroush stated in a televised interview that the UN-recognized Tripoli GNA government would not let Haftar carry out another major offensive to capture the Libyan capital. He also said that the Libyan Army, under GNA command, has been following and respecting the ceasefire terms, however the armed forces would be standing by to effectively respond to any provocations from the Haftar-led LNA.

Even earlier, during an interview on Dec. 11, al-Namroush was even more critical of Haftar, calling the General a war criminal and ruling out any possibility of forming a political coalition where Haftar could play any role at all. Considering that al-Namroush will remain one of the key GNA players and his footprint -in both the political and military aspects of the process — is significant, we could assess that a new escalation between the two sides could be likely. Therefore it is understandable that while Haftar remains in the equation, some GNA key officials could hardly negotiate to reach a consensus; in this respect a realistic precondition for the successful completion of the peace process would be the withdrawal of either party, which is not expected to be easy or uneventful.

We should note that the completion of the process could be the successful organization and implementation of the Libyan elections, scheduled for December 2021.

What is UNSMIL Doing to End the Libyan Conflict?

While the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has publicly congratulated the Libyan people in several instances, the in-country situation still remains far from optimistic. The recent exchange of prisoners between the opposing sides and the successful organizing of municipal elections in Al-Zawiya Al-Gharbia and Ar-Rajban areas in the northwestern parts of the country, are definitely positive signs.

However, the current transitioning period of the mission, will be critical for the next steps on the process. The experienced diplomat Nickolay Mladenov — who was expected to succeed Ghassan Salamé as the Head of UNSMIL — recently turned down the position due to personal and family reasons. Mladenov has previously held key roles in the UN Mission in Iraq and in the Middle East Peace Process; additionally his appointment was expected to be welcomed by Turkey as the Bulgarian diplomat built strong ties with Turkey, while serving as the Foreign Minister of Bulgaria several years ago.

For the moment, Stephanie Williams will remain the Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL, until a new decision is reached for the permanent placement of the Head of the Mission.

Many Challenges Lie Ahead

Despite the positive signs, mainly derived from the exchange of prisoners, there are many challenges ahead, with one of the most prominent threats being related to the oil industry of the country. The LNA’s recent raid in Awbari (or Ubari) underscores this reality. UNSMIL has also strongly condemned the efforts of armed groups to intimidate the National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli. With oil exports being one of the main sources of revenue for the Libyan economy, any disruption in this sector could trigger hostilities and further destabilize the country.

Occasional skirmishes during December also indicate that the ceasefire agreement is not being fully adhered to, and an incidental unfortunate event could easily lead to another vicious cycle of violence. Finally, the harsh rhetoric and the military build-up from both sides is another worrying sign.

Turkey’s overt action and deep involvement in Libya — not only through the deployment of military forces but also through a direct intervention in the shaping of the political context — is also a critical destabilizing factor. The most telling example of this political involvement was the recent surprise resignation of al-Serraj — which rather disappointed Ankara — only to be revoked shortly after its announcement.

L'articolo Haftar Demands That Turks Leave Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj recently performed a complete U-turn and withdrew his resignation as Prime Minister. This means that he will remain in office until the ongoing intra-Libyan political dialog comes to an end.

Last week, Stephanie Williams, the acting head of the United Nations (UN) mission in Libya, presided over a permanent nationwide ceasefire including the exit of all foreign fighters and mercenaries from the nation for a minimum of three months.

The ceasefire includes the full opening of land and air routes, efforts to tackle hate speech, an exchange of prisoners and plans to rebuild the Petroleum Facilities Guard, a militia body and oil company linked to the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), General Khalifa Haftar.

This Ceasefire Has More Potential to Stick

Although many ceasefires have been agreed and shattered in Libya with frequency, this time it could be different because senior military officers have signed the agreement.

The ceasefire also paves the way for political talks between the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the LNA on future power-sharing arrangements, as well as the future of sovereign institutions like the Central Bank of Libya and the Libyan Investment Authority.

The Libyan Prime Minister’s decision was motivated by the insistence of the High Council of State, which suggested that al-Serraj should remain until a new presidential council is selected to prevent a political vacuum detrimental to Libya’s stability. This just shows how much support the Libyan Prime Minister has at the top and how crucial he is in uniting the opposing sides in Libya’s war.

Al-Serraj Has the Support of the International Community

Al-Serraj enjoys international support. According to al-Jazeera, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas pleaded with the Libyan Prime Minister to remain in his post “in order to guarantee institutional and executive continuity” in the crucial weeks ahead, which is a reference to in-person negotiations due to take place on November 9 in Tunisia, to discuss holding national elections.

Furthermore, the UN recognizes the GNA as the only legitimate governing body in Libya, as does the U.S., Turkey and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and all of these factors are a significant boost to al-Serraj’s premiership.

Al-Serraj also enjoys support from the GNA as they released their own statement begging for him to remain in office. Because of the domestic and international support that the Libyan Prime Minister has, it is clear that if he did permanently resign, it would have had a detrimental impact on the Libyan peace process. Therefore, al-Serraj is the only Libyan politician capable of ensuring that his country’s latest ceasefire becomes permanent.

The Libyan Prime Minister is capable of building ties with nations that once supported the LNA. Al-Sarraj used a Twitter account that he created recently to thank Egypt for welcoming Libya’s permanent ceasefire. He also told Bloomberg that support from Egypt, the US and Turkey is crucial.

Al-Serraj Must Do All He Can to Make Libyan Peace a Reality

However, Egypt’s support for peace comes at a price. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi warned during his meeting with Libyan tribal chiefs on July 16 that the Sirte-Jufra red line, which is crucial to both Cairo and the LNA due to its vast oil supplies, must not be crossed. If al-Serraj is serious about remaining in office until the peace process has been completed, these are factors he must take into consideration.

The only country acting as an obstacle to peace right now is the UAE. They could persuade Haftar to disrupt the peace process and push for Turkey to be expelled from Libya. As Tarek Megerisi wrote for the European Council of Foreign Relations, the LNA chief should be threatened with sanctions if he disrupts the upcoming proceedings.

It is a huge relief for all the parties involved in the Libyan ceasefire that al-Serraj has withdrawn his resignation. The world will be watching him closely in the coming weeks.

L'articolo Libya’s PM al-Serraj Withdraws His Resignation – What Impact Will This Have? proviene da InsideOver.

According to a Janes report from early September approximately 5,000 Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries have been deployed to Libya to support the Government of National Accord (GNA).

The report quotes sources from the US Africa Command and the US Office of the Inspector General. The same sources reveal that dozens of military advisors of the Turkish company SADAT are also in Libya, training the Syrian fighters and monitoring the day-to-day operations of Turkish-affiliated militias.

Rumors around SADAT have started circulating shortly after the publication of the report, and some recent comments of the company’s President Adnan Tanriverdi for the Daily Telegraph did not provide any further clarity. We shall now have a brief look into the company that according to many commentators could be the Turkish counterpart to the Russian Wagner Group on the Libyan front.

Who is Adnan Tanriverdi?

Adnan Tanriverdi is the founder and current President of SADAT Board of Directors. A former General in the Turkish Armed Forces, Tanriverdi was discharged back in 1996 allegedly due to concerns around his strong religious beliefs.

Tanriverdi became widely known to the public in August 2016, when President Recep Erdogan chose him as his new military advisor. The appointment came shortly after the failed coup attempt against the Turkish President; this move indicated Erdogan’s intention to establish a network of supporters and allies in key positions of the country’s administration in order to cement his position in the long-term and diminish any internal threats that might lead to another regime change attempt.

Further to his SADAT Presidency, Tanriverdi was also appointed President of the Turkish-based NGO Association of Justice Defenders back in 2004,, a Group Member of the Union of NGOs of the Islamic World.

What is the SADAT International Defense Consultancy?

SADAT is a private registered company, providing Security and Military Training and Consultancy Services. It was founded in 2012 by Tanriverdi who has also been serving as President since then. The personnel is exclusively composed of Army Officers and Non-Commissioned Officers of the Turkish Armed Forces from all ranks, with many having a Special Forces background. As clearly stated the company is not providing services to individuals; SADAT is working entirely with branches of the Turkish government and possibly with fellow Muslim governments which hold friendly ties with Ankara.

The company’s Vision and Mission is to “reorganize or modernize the Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces of Islamic Countries in a modern and effective sense to ensure National Defense and Internal Security.” Inspired by the concept of Private Military and Defense Companies, which has thrived in Western Countries over the past decades, Tanriverdi came up with a plan to establish a Turkish Private Military Company that would fit in an anti-Western religious and political context.

The ex-military personnel, which should be estimated at approximately a hundred individuals directly employed by SADAT, is reportedly utilizing its broad experience in the Turkish Armed Forces to deliver services ranging from urban warfare operations training to training courses for helicopter pilots.

A Counterweight to the Wagner Group?

Even though SADAT has been presented by mainstream media, as the Turkish equivalent to the Russian Wagner Group, there are some critical differences. Wagner has managed to establish its presence out of nothing. The term Wagner today refers to any Russian-affiliated foreign fighter operating abroad. There is no official record about Wagner, its activity is not advertised online or through other means and there is no company registered under that name either in Russia or abroad.

The “Wagner Group” is a ghost entity pushing Kremlin’s interests overseas, and since it doesn’t officially exist, the Russian President and his administration can’t be held accountable for the activity of the Group under any circumstances.

On the other hand, SADAT does officially exist and there is nothing secret about its presence and area of operations. Headquartered in Istanbul and under Tanrverdi’s leadership the company does not seem to be keeping anything covert about its very existence. The company is publicly advertising its activity through its website and the press. There is a precise organizational chart and an approximate estimation on the number of personnel acting as consultants and advisors.

In this respect there is no point comparing the ambiguous and shadowy Wagner group to the commercial entity registered in the issue 8015 of “Turkish Trade Registry Gazette” and doing business under the name “SADAT International Defense Consulting Construction Industry and Trade Inc.”

Evaluating Claims of SADAT in Libya

Until now there have been many claims that SADAT has a presence in Libya, and the latest AFRICOM report comes to further strengthen these assumptions. Tanriverdi for his part has repeatedly rejected these claims. The most probable scenario is that SADAT personnel could be actively involved in the Libyan front, however no traceable connection between the company and operators deployed to Libya should be expected.

The fact that SADAT is gaining international attention could also prove to be a very useful tool for massive recruitment if played right by the Turkish authorities. In the case of Wagner we have seen that the wide media coverage urged hundreds of Syrians to rush to sign up with Wagner for a deployment in Libya.

We should not expect by no means an open recruitment process for fighters willing to fight in Libya or Syria on behalf of the company; however the public talk around SADAT could prompt several individuals to become involved in one of the Turkish fronts abroad, with the company acting strictly as an initial point of contact, if there is any involvement in the whole process at all.

In the case of Wagner, President Vladimir Putin, a mastermind in psychological operations and political manipulation, undoubtedly managed to turn the whole Wagner story to his advantage. We only need to stand by and see if Ankara could exploit the noise around SADAT in a similar way at this particular moment.

L'articolo New Report Says 5,000 Turkish-Backed Syrian Rebels Deployed to Libya proviene da InsideOver.

The head of Libya’s internationally-recognized government Fayez al Sarraj has called it quits. His departure comes almost five years after presiding over the government and the Presidential Council that controls most of western Libya.

Al Sarraj Announces His Departure: ‘No Later Than the End of October’

He said in a televised address on Wednesday that he would remain in office to the end of October, until a new presidential council is elected.

“I declare my sincere desire to hand over my duties to the next executive authority no later than the end of October,” Sarraj said, adding that “hopefully, the dialogue committee will complete its work and choose a new presidential council and prime minister.”

Sarraj’s move opens the door for speculation over the future of the political situation in Tripoli, the Libyan capital where his Government of National Accord (GNA) is based, along with the presidential council.

It also raises questions on the future of the Libya conflict as a whole.

Sensitive Timing

Al Sarraj’s resignation declaration comes as Tripoli boils in anger over the GNA’s failure in addressing the problems of its residents and catering to their needs.

Tripoli’s residents complain against electricity cuts and the lack of fuel and basic necessities. They staged a series of protests over the past few days. However, the protests were quelled by armed groups believed to be affiliated to the GNA.

The resignation declaration also comes at a time of major power struggles and rifts within the GNA, especially between Sarraj on one hand and his interior minister Fathi Bashagha on the other.

Bashagha is believed to be pulling most of the strings in Tripoli, being in control of most of the militias and armed groups that control the Libyan capital.

International Power Play?

There is belief that Sarraj’s resignation is part of an agreement between international and regional parties to the Libyan conflict to settle this conflict.

Libya has descended into civil war since the downfall of autocrat Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. This civil war opened the door for international and regional interference in Libya, namely through support of local parties to the conflict.

Apart from being recognized by the United Nations, the GNA receives support from Turkey which sends arms and mercenaries to Libya.

Turkish support succeeded in reviving GNA hopes for gaining a sizable space on Libya’s political map. It also succeeded in repelling a 14-month campaign on Tripoli and western Libya by the GNA’s rival force, namely the Libyan National Army (LNA) which controls most of eastern and southern Libya.

The LNA, which is commanded by Khalifa Haftar, a Gaddafi era army officer, receives support from a long list of states, including France, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia.

“Sarraj’s resignation is a reflection of the presence of an international will for settling the conflict in Libya,” said Abdel Qadir Qazit, a member of the Supreme State Council, an affiliate of the GNA.

“There are international arrangements for forming a new presidential council, one in which Sarraj will have no place,” Qazit added.

Sarraj’s resignation comes also while representatives of the GNA and LNA hold talks in Morocco. The talks followed the declaration of a ceasefire throughout Libya by the GNA, on one hand, and the House of Deputies, the eastern Libya parliament, on the other.

Al Sarraj: Libya Was Targeted by ‘Internal and External Conspiracies Every Day’

Sarraj said in his televised address on Wednesday that his government worked in tough conditions.

“The government was the target of internal and external conspiracies every day,” he said.

He said all talks aiming at reaching a political settlement to the conflict in Libya failed because some parties he did not name always wanted war.

This also opens the door for uncertainties on the future of the conflict in Libya after Sarraj’s resignation and whether this resignation can give the go-ahead for further power struggles inside the GNA.

The formation of a new presidential council as a prelude for negotiations between Libya’s rivals to open the door for general elections and then a comprehensive settlement of the conflict were stipulated in an Egyptian initiative for ending the war in Libya.

The Cairo Declaration

The initiative, known as Cairo Declaration, was welcomed by most western powers. Nevertheless, it was rejected by Turkey and the GNA.

Representatives of Sarraj arrived in Cairo a few days ago to hold talks with Egyptian officials on means of ending the conflict in Libya.

There was not a statement on the talks from the Egyptian government, but observers expect them to have focused on pushing the Egyptian blueprint for resolving the conflict in Libya forward.

Nevertheless, some Libyan officials believe Sarraj’s resignation amounts to more than a political maneuver.

By making his resignation conditional on the success of the dialogue committee which holds talks in Morocco now in forming a new presidential council and naming a new prime minister, Sarraj wants to shirk responsibility for either staying in office or leaving.

“So, if the committee fails in forming a new presidential council and naming a prime minister, Sarraj can stay in office,” said Gaballah al Shibani, a member of the eastern Libya parliament.

“This will give him the chance to claim that he does not cling to power, but it is the committee that failed in paving the road for his exit,” al Shibani added.

L'articolo Libya’s Sarraj Calls It Quits, Opening Door For All Scenarios proviene da InsideOver.

Morocco and Egypt recently presided over joint talks between rival leaders in Libya and it’s been reported that both sides have been able to secure some substantial breakthroughs, particularly regarding elections and uniting rival governments.

Dubbed the Libyan Dialog, the talks brought together five participants from the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), which controls the capital, Tripoli, as well as the northwest, and five figures from the House of Representatives (HoR), based in Tobruk.

An Agreement Seems Possible

Although the HoR’s Idris Omran did not provide further details on the objectives that both sides agreed to, the two groups said that they would meet again during the final week of September to finalize mechanisms that would implement the agreement.

Consultations also took place in Montreux, Switzerland, on September 7 to 9 under the auspices of the Center for Humanitarian Dialog. Stephanie Williams, the UN’s interim envoy to Libya, told Al-Jazeera that the Montreux talks “would provide a basis for all responsible Libyan stakeholders to forge the way forward.”

Elections in Libya May Soon Become a Reality

While it was not clear if any of the discussions in Morocco included binding agreements, members of both delegations said that one of the key points of agreement was to split positions in the ruling Council of State from among Libya’s three geographic regions.

Negotiators are due to meet in Switzerland on September 17, and they have agreed that elections must be held on a mutually acceptable constitutional framework.

Considering the GNA and the LNA, led by General Khalifa Haftar, have been engaged in a long civil war that has allowed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin to take advantage of the chaos in the war-torn country, this is a remarkable achievement.

If both sides play their cards carefully, they could realistically end the Libyan war in the near future.

Peace Seemed Unlikely Only a Few Months Ago

Steps toward peace did not seem possible months ago. In June, increased Turkish support allowed pro-GNA forces to seize control of northwest Libya, which devastated Haftar’s plans to occupy Tripoli. The strategic city of Sirte, which could provide Russia with a gateway to dominate the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast, also became a bone of contention between Ankara and Moscow at one stage. Until the war is over, a siege on the city still seems possible.

However, the Geneva talks will be much harder than the ones held last week. Arab League head Ahmed Aboul Gheit said that Arab states must oppose Turkish interference during a meeting in Cairo. Yet it is almost certain that both Turkey and Russia will want a stake in determining Libya’s future.

The Arab Weekly reports that the GNA was opposed to Turkey’s withdrawal from Libya and it is likely this issue will cause a stir in future peace talks. They added that Erdoğan was unhappy about being excluded from the Moroccan talks.

Russia and Turkey May Jeopardize Peace

Russian and Turkish ambitions in Libya could become an obstacle to peace and both nations may carve the country up between them. For example, Turkey could acquiesce to Russian control of al-Jufra in return for Sirte. It will be interesting to see if Ankara and Moscow fulfill their territorial aspirations in the region and how far they are willing to go to do so.

The Libyan people are also crucial for peace to become a reality. This was acknowledged by Russian Ambassador Aleksei Erkho. Thomas M. Hill of the US Institute of Peace believes that Libya’s citizens have played an active role in making peace possible through initiatives like successfully convincing young people in the city of Misrata to quit the local militia.

Therefore, the Libyan people themselves must provide their consent for any peace agreement.

The Libyan Dialog has helped guarantee the beginning of the end of the Libyan conflict, but there are still many stages to go yet.

L'articolo Why the Libyan Dialog is the First Step Toward Peace in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Following the announcement of the Libyan ceasefire two weeks ago, delegates from Libya’s National Army (LNA) and the Government of National Accord (GNA) met for talks in Morocco on Sunday at the behest of the Moroccan Government.

The Libyan Dialog

Dubbed the Libyan Dialog, the discussions brought together five members of the GNA and five from a parliament in the eastern Libyan city of Tobruk. They met in Morocco’s coastal town of Bouznika, south of Rabat.

The talks were a prelude to a significant meeting in Montreux, Switzerland to be held today and Tuesday that will bring together the leaders of Libya’s rival factions.

The United Nations (UN) will be monitoring the talks closely and insisted that a solution to the Libyan war must be decided by the Libyan people themselves.

The Libyan Ceasefire Would Pave the Way for a Truce in Syria

The last decade witnessed the start of two almost seemingly endless conflicts in Libya and Syria, with Turkey and Russia vying for control over both nations. But if the Libyan ceasefire paves the way for a permanent and peaceful end to the war there, there is a chance that it could set a precedent for a ceasefire in Syria too.

As Talmiz Ahmad of Arab News writes, Syria has too many fronts and too many contending players. Rather like with the Libyan city of Sirte, Idlib has become a city of strategic importance to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. According to Ahmad, there are reports that the Syrian Government and its advisors are planning a major assault to decimate the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and seize control of this rebel territory. Turkey may also be negotiating with Russia the possible accommodation of its interests in Libya in exchange for its acceptance of some actions against HTS in Idlib.

Erdoğan is supposedly adamant that the HTS is not a terrorist threat anymore, but a mainstream political entity.

Peace is Dependent upon Diplomatic Action

Diplomatic action has a role to play here. The Russian Government hosted a conclave of the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), and the Popular Will Party that it supports. The SDC wishes to maintain relations with Russia, despite its support from the US, as a means of restraining Turkey.

Anything is possible once the assault in Idlib has taken place. One peaceful solution to the Syrian conflict is to rewrite Syria’s constitution, which was attempted at a meeting in Geneva. When one opposition leader demanded a ceasefire, all the parties involved in the Syrian war ignored this request.

It seems like all the key players are focused on the upcoming siege of Idlib right now.

The Syrian War is Only Getting Uglier by the Day

US President Donald Trump, who was elected on a promise to end all of America’s “pointless” wars, should be interested in an end to the Syrian conflict as well. The US and Russian standoff in Syria risks prolonging a war that has lasted for too long. Four American troops were recently injured in the country and as Business Insider’s Christopher Mott argues, Syria’s oil reserves are not worth fighting over. Syria possesses 2,500,000,000 oil barrels, making it 31st in the world for its number of oil barrels. If anything, Washington’s presence in Syria is provoking Iran.

US-Iranian disputes over Syria continue to foreshadow any solution toward peace. Iran’s mission to the UN has issued a statement saying Tehran will continue helping the Syrian Government after a spokesperson of the US State Department told Newsweek that removing Iranian-backed proxies is a key US objective. Washington and Tehran are unlikely to engage in a diplomatic solution to restore peace to Syria until they have resolved their differences over the end of Obama’s 2015 Iran Deal.

The Libyan ceasefire shows that it is possible to pave the way for an end to continuous regional conflicts. The impetus for a Syrian ceasefire is there, but peace does not seem possible until the latest siege of Idlib has happened.

Compared to Libya, the world could be waiting longer for a Syrian ceasefire until all sides can compromise over their objectives there. They must do so fast, because the Syrian war only continues to get uglier over time.

L'articolo Libya’s Ceasefire Should Set a Precedent for Syria proviene da InsideOver.

Tensions between French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have been escalating since June following an incident involving a French frigate near the coast of Libya. The ship was there to enforce a NATO arms embargo and tried to search a cargo ship. However, it was targeted by Turkish naval vessels which escorted the ship away, according to Paris. Ankara said the cargo ship was carrying humanitarian aid.

The situation has only gotten worse since the incident, as Macron has sent warships to the Aegean Sea in case Erdoğan does not withdraw his naval forces from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Greece is also planning to double its western territorial waters with Italy to 12 nautical miles, a right provided under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, an agreement which Turkey has not signed up to.

Erdoğan Calls Macron ‘Greedy and Incompetent’

EU member states agreed on a list of sanctions against the Turkish Government in case they fail to deescalate tensions in the region. Considering France is one of the loudest advocates for sanctions against Turkey, Erdoğan responded by calling Macron “greedy and incompetent.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Saturday said that the EU’s actions could even spark a war.

Brussels has responded by saying that it will implement further measures if Ankara does not comply with the first set of sanctions.

Macron is Worsening Tensions with Turkey

Macron is failing to reduce tensions between himself and the Turkish leader, which is why Germany would like to mediate the Turkish-Greek dispute over the Mediterranean. If the French leader is not careful, he could lose the wider strategic battle that he has been pursuing with Erdoğan since June.

The French President has the capacity to regain the initiative from his Turkish counterpart, but that largely depends upon his success in ending tensions in Libya.

Last week, Macron invited Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) to visit Paris.

Can Macron Restore Peace to Libya?

Sarraj accepted France’s invitation because it represents a chance to implement a new ceasefire alongside fresh elections. It is also a chance for Libya to resume its oil production.

Yet Macron’s initiative faces two obstacles. Any settlement in Libya depends upon Sarraj receiving Erdoğan’s approval and support.

The Turkish President has the upper hand in the Libyan conflict and he would like to occupy the strategic city of Sirte that provides the Turks with a gateway to the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast.

Considering the Turkish leader has nothing but disdain toward Macron, why would he support a peace initiative led by his French rival?

Erdoğan Has Outflanked Macron in the Middle East

Also, other key players like Russia would need to be involved in the discussions. Due to a lack of US involvement in the Libyan conflict, Moscow and Ankara have emerged as the main rivals for control over the war-torn country. Russia is also interested in controlling Sirte and that is why the Libyan war cannot end until Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdoğan have resolved their differences over Sirte.

If Macron, who has been a vocal critic of Sarraj’s GNA, can also persuade the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar to support a ceasefire, it would provide France with a huge strategic advantage over both Turkey and Russia.

Nonetheless, Macron faces other strategic battles with Erdoğan beyond Libya. The French President visited Lebanon this week to show that he is interested in pursuing political reform there, but French attempts to influence Middle Eastern politics will be met by resistance from Turkey, Russia and Iran. The Russian-Iranian-Turkish triumvirate is working closely to squeeze US influence out of Syria and without wider NATO support, Macron cannot hope to take on this triumvirate on his own.

The Turkish President seems to be winning a strategic battle with Macron, whether that is in Greece or the rest of the Middle East. Macron has made tensions over the Mediterranean worse and he cannot afford to risk war with Turkey, which the latter has proposed in response to EU sanctions.

There is still a chance Macron could score a win in helping Libya, but by and large, he cannot defeat Turkey and should take steps to deescalate his confrontation with Ankara.

L'articolo Is Macron Losing His Strategic Battle with Erdogan? proviene da InsideOver.

On Friday, August 21, Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) issued a statement saying its leader Fayez al-Sarraj had given instructions to “all military forces to immediately ceasefire and all combat operations in all Libyan territories.”

Temporary Ceasefire

The Tripoli-based government’s plead for a truce was unexpected and soon received a similar call for a truce from Aguila Saleh Issa, the leader of an eastern-based parliament aligned to Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA).

The two sides mentioned the growing spread of the coronavirus in Libya as grounds for bringing the armed conflict to a temporary halt. Although with scarce testing, daily Covid-19 cases across the country rose by the hundreds in recent weeks, reaching a total of over 8,000 confirmed cases and more than 150 confirmed deaths.

The ongoing Libyan conflict has left the North African country with impaired infrastructure, not least its healthcare system, after almost a decade of relentless fighting. On Thursday, August 20, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) warned that the humanitarian crisis in Libya has deepened, amid the country’s abrupt cuts in oil production, blockades of its ports and, more recently, the spread of the coronavirus. The Red Cross also called for negotiations between the warring factions.

Skepticism in Sirte

Although the mutual call for peace shed some hope in the ravaged country, adding to the Libyan National Oil Company statement that same day that it was ready at last to resume oil operations at a rate close to the pre-COVID-19 rate, many people in Sirte were still skeptical.

The call for a ceasefire itself came in a time where the two belligerents’ armed forces were both heavily settled near the central city of Sirte. The coastal city, which also nears the country’s major oil terminals, became the conflict’s point of focus recently, bearing the new frontlines as Haftar’s forces settled around the city after the Turkish intervention pushed the LNA back from Tripoli in June.

Haftar’s forces, backed by Egypt and the UAE, among others, were attempting to seize Tripoli, where the GNA is based, for over a year since April 2019. Although recognized by the United Nations, the GNA mainly benefits from the support of Turkey and Qatar.

‘Deceptive Calm’

During a visit to Tripoli last week, Germany’s foreign minister Heiko Maas warned of a “deceptive calm” and noted that both sides were still arming themselves “on a massive scale” although there hadn’t been much confrontation in recent months. Maas also reiterated the United States’ call for a demilitarized zone in Sirte and Jufra.

Although there has been relatively little fighting since June, Turkey and the GNA seem poised to make further advances, even after Haftar’s forces withdrew to Sirte.

The LNA did not quickly respond to Sarraj’s call for peace on Friday, but on Sunday it said it deemed the new ceasefire attempt dubious.

“The initiative that Sarraj signed is for media marketing,” said Ahmed Mismari, the LNA’s spokesman. “There is a military build-up and the transfer of equipment to target our forces in Sirte.” Mismari even noted that the LNA was “ready to respond to any attempted attack on its positions around the coastal city of Sirte, and Jufra, to the south,” according to Reuters.

Too Many Actors

Observers have long argued that the conflict of Libya could not be solved by military means. But given the level of foreign meddling in the country, it has proven even harder to resolve diplomatically.

Turkey, who is at odds with its Mediterranean neighbors over energy reserves in the basin, soon sided with the Tripoli-based GNA, who promptly signed a maritime boundaries contract in favor of Ankara, while the United Arab Emirates and Egypt openly back Khalifa Haftar’s military rule. Other major powers, such as France and Russia, have also been accused of meddling in favor of Haftar.

In June, Egypt was among the first to warn the GNA —and Turkey— that attacks on Sirte and Jufra constituted crossing a “red line” that would systematically trigger an Egyptian military intervention.

Many Unsuccessful Peace Attempts So Far

All attempts to bring about peace to the Libyan people after almost a decade of war —most recently, the Berlin Summit earlier in January— stalled so far, not least because of the pressure exerted by foreign actors, on whom either factions heavily depend, to further their geopolitical and sometimes economic interests.

No longer than the following weekend, however, on Sunday, August 23, guns were fired in Tripoli to disperse hundreds of protesters who had gathered near the headquarters of the GNA to demonstrate over their squalid living conditions amid the current sanitary and economic crises.

L'articolo Glimmer of Hope for Peace in Libya, but Fear Lingers proviene da InsideOver.

Al-Jazeera reports on a study conducted by the US Army War College, which suggests that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS) remains a “persistent threat” in Libya and could rise again unless the nation’s ongoing conflict is brought to an end.

It added that the terrorist group retained its capacity to launch “small-scale” attacks in Libya, which is a shift from its previously predominant tactic of “shock and awe raids.”

ISIL is Still Active in Libya

Considering the UN and Turkish-backed Government of National Accord’s (GNA) armed forces succeeded in defeating ISIL in May 2016 in the strategic city of Sirte, this is an alarming development. The study suggests that most of the terrorist group’s activities have moved to Fezzan in the southern Libyan desert.

If ISIL was going to succeed in expanding its number of recruits, then Libya is an easy target for the terrorist group for many reasons.

Firstly, the country has been torn apart by a civil war conducted by two opposing armies. One of the main rival forces in Libya is the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, which has the support of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The GNA, the LNA’s main adversary, has the backing of the US, the UN and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. If the international community should learn any lessons from the last decade, then it is that IS’s recruitment strategy thrives during civil wars.

As The Atlantic’s David Ignatius argues, ISIS’s rise in Syria was made possible by several factors. The terrorist group began as a bottom-up movement, with mosques gathering their own young recruits to defend their local areas.

Syria Showed How Civil Wars are a Breeding Ground for Terror

Because of a lack of US intervention, the Free Syrian Army, whose stated goal was to overthrow Assad’s government once the Syrian civil war started in 2011, received inadequate training. Although the US tried to bolster covert Syrian missions with an overt “train and equip” program backed by $500 million in congressional support, the initiative proved to be a disaster. President Obama terminated it in October 2014. This meant that Jabhat al-Nusra and his ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates were able to fill the vacuum left by the moderate opposition in Syria.

Poverty is another factor that can cause terrorist groups like ISIS to prosper, and according to the Index Mundi, about one-third of Libyans live at or below the national poverty line. The country suffers from widespread power outages, caused by shortages of fuel for power generations. Living conditions, including access to drinking water, medical services and safe housing have declined since 2011. A study conducted by International Alert in 2016 discovered that poverty, desperation and the desire for revenge pushed many Syrians to join ISIS, particularly among adolescent boys and young men between the ages of 12 and 24. There is no reason why many Libyans today would not feel the same way as many Syrians did back then.

The Libyan War Must End as Soon as Possible

Therefore, it is vital that the Libyan people are involved in a peace settlement between Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. As Thomas M. Hill of the US Institute of Peace argues, Libyan citizens have played an active role in making peace a reality through initiatives like successfully convincing some youth in the city of Misrata to quit the local militia.

Fehim Tastekin of Al-Monitor argues that Turkey could acquiesce to Russian control over the city of al-Jufra in exchange for Turkish control over Sirte. However, carving up Libya between Russia and Turkey could only boost ISIS’s support further. That is why it is vital that US President Donald Trump intervenes in this conflict to prevent Putin and Erdoğan from exerting their influence over the war-torn state.

Because of recent history, there are many reasons to believe that the findings of the US Army War College could come true. It is vital that all the superpowers that have a stake in the Libyan conflict come to an agreement soon, and that the Libyan people are consulted on any progress toward peace. The worst outcome for Libya right now is if many of its citizens fall under ISIS’s influence again.

L'articolo ISIS Could Re-emerge in Libya if Conflict Continues proviene da InsideOver.

On August 6, Greece and Egypt signed an historical deal in an unexpected move, demarcating their maritime boundaries, and essentially declaring their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). Several geopolitical factors across the Eastern Mediterranean and the Libyan front have contributed to this development, which could trigger a new round of tension in the region.

A Late But Important Step for Athens

Surprisingly, Greece has been one of the few countries to remain particularly idle in the initial demarcation of the EEZ. In a region where significant energy reserves have been confirmed, Greece has previously omitted to take the necessary steps in order to proceed to exploration and drilling in the respective area in contrast to numerous other countries nearby like Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Israel.

Now, the current Greek administration has taken remarkable action in a field that has been lifeless for decades. Last June Greece came to an agreement with Italy with regards to the maritime boundaries in the Ionian Sea and now Athens has signed a very important deal with Cairo. It should be noted here that in the case of Italy the negotiations have started in 1977 and in the case of Egypt in 2004.

Specific terms of each deal seem to be unfavorable for Greece: for instance in the latest one, 56 to 44 percent of territory was apportioned in favor of Egypt instead of following the equidistant principle. However, the current Greek government is seeking out to gain political capital through these moves, emphasizing that a necessary step for the Greek economy and the international standing of the country has been finally taken after such a long delay.

Geopolitical Gains for Both Sides

The Greek-Egyptian deal comes at a moment when both countries have a lot to gain from this development. On the one hand Greece manages to de facto override the so-called Turkish-Libyan MoU, as the coordinates of the deal are covering a major part of the area established in the questionable pact between Ankara and Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA). Once the deal and the resulting map have been officially published and adopted by the United Nations, then Athens will have also cancelled de jure the Turkish claims.

At the same time, Egypt creates an unwanted situation for both Turkey and the GNA; we should consider here that the ongoing Libyan conflict has gradually developed into a proxy war between Ankara and Cairo, therefore any action that could worsen the Turkish position and standing in the region. This is definitely welcomed by Egyptian President Sisi. The domestic politics of Egypt are also relevant to this decision, considering that several elements of the Egyptian opposition are firmly supported by Turkey. The Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni Muslim organization with expanded popular support from a part of the Egyptian population, poses a significant internal threat for President Sisi; it is well known that the Brotherhood receives considerable financial, logistical and political support from Turksih President Erdogan. Since the Turkish support is a key factor for the power of the Brotherhood in Egypt, every blow to Ankara’s prestige is a push towards the stability and prevalence of Sisi’s regime.

Turkey’s Angry Reaction

Turkey responded fiercely, shortly after the announcement of the deal. Erdogan stated after Friday prayers that Greece acted in a deceptive way and the that the deal is worthless. The Turkish President also claimed that he backed down after the recent provocative actions in the Aegean Sea as a gesture of good will and just because of the German intervention. He also suggested that new drilling activity will soon start in the suggested area, while Turkish vessels are once again sailing within the Cypriot EEZ now. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has also used similar rhetoric, describing the deal null and void, with Turkish Press encouraging these claims.

Finally, just after the announcement by the Greek-Egyptian side, the Antalya Navtex Station issued a NAVTEX advising that a region between the Greek islands of Kastelorizo and Rhodes will be used for a Turkish gunnery exercise on August 10 and 11. The Navigational Telex has alerted the Hellenic Armed Forces and has prompted the Hellenic Navy to closely monitor the area.

There Are Potential Issues with the Deal

The agreement with Egypt is being promoted by the Greek administration and most of the major country media as a huge national success. Even though the deal could be perceived as a smart move to essentially cancel the Turkish-GNA MoU, and finally boost the Greek presence in the eastern Mediterranean, the terms and specifics of the agreement raise some substantial concerns.

One is that the deal excludes the area east of the Meridian after 28° East; even though there have been disagreements between Cairo and Athens, and reportedly those disagreements have blocked the two parties from reaching a deal all this time, the main point of concern has been the island complex of Kastelorizo. But surprisingly Athens has also decided to leave out a part of Rhodes, a major Greek island westwards, in the proximity of Turkey.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias stated that this move would leave space for further negotiations in the future among Greece, Egypt, Cyprus and ideally Turkey. However the Greek move could be interpreted as a way to achieve a desired balance for the Greek Government. It is a way of cancelling the already disputed Turkish-Libyan MoU, gaining political capital in-country, but at the same time avoiding the area that has been the main friction point with Ankara and therefore indicating that there is the intention to cooperate and work on a possible bilateral agreement with the “troubling neighbor”.

Unintentionally Empowering Turkey?

In potential future talks, this latest move from Athens has actually provided Ankara with an additional negotiating card, since leaving parts of the islands out of the EEZ agreement actually aligns with the Turkish allegation that islands are entitled to limited EEZ rights. Taking this line of thought thought further and keeping in mind the unofficial trilateral meeting among Greece, Turkey and Germany prior to the aimless tension incident of late July, one could say that a pretext for a Greek-Turkish deal could be unofficially already on the table of negotiations, with the surrounding tension being probably used just to manipulate the domestic audiences of each country. The developments to follow in the next weeks and months will confirm or disprove this claim.

L'articolo The Landmark Greek-Egyptian Deal and the Turkish Factor proviene da InsideOver.