Recent developments in Libya are setting the ground for a renewed cycle of violence. While both sides are gradually fueling the tension, UN and international concerns are focused on the potential failure of the ongoing peace process.

Haftar Reacts Angrily to Turkey’s Libya Troop Extension

On the day marking the 69th anniversary of Libyan Independence, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar stated that as long as Turkish Forces remain stationed in Libya, there will be no peace in the country. As predicted, Turkey’s Grand National Assembly recently approved a bill extending deployment of Turkish troops in Libya for another 18 months.

In his inflammatory remarks, Haftar stated that Ankara should withdraw its forces, otherwise the “Libyan people would by force drive out the colonizing force.” With these words, the Benghazi-based Libyan strongman indirectly passed an ultimatum to Turkey at a point where there is no chance that Ankara would back down. This highlights the fragility of the ongoing peace process.

Turkey Responds to Haftar’s Demand

Shortly after Haftar’s speech on Dec. 26 there has was a straightforward Turkish response. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar landed in Tripoli accompanied by Turkey’s military leadership in an unscheduled visit to inspect the Turkish Forces based in the country. It was clear that at the same time Akar’s visit was intended to send a message to Haftar, emphasizing that Ankara is ready and committed to fully support Fayez al-Serraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA).

Prior to Akar’s visit, his Libyan counterpart Minister Salahaddin al-Namroush stated in a televised interview that the UN-recognized Tripoli GNA government would not let Haftar carry out another major offensive to capture the Libyan capital. He also said that the Libyan Army, under GNA command, has been following and respecting the ceasefire terms, however the armed forces would be standing by to effectively respond to any provocations from the Haftar-led LNA.

Even earlier, during an interview on Dec. 11, al-Namroush was even more critical of Haftar, calling the General a war criminal and ruling out any possibility of forming a political coalition where Haftar could play any role at all. Considering that al-Namroush will remain one of the key GNA players and his footprint -in both the political and military aspects of the process — is significant, we could assess that a new escalation between the two sides could be likely. Therefore it is understandable that while Haftar remains in the equation, some GNA key officials could hardly negotiate to reach a consensus; in this respect a realistic precondition for the successful completion of the peace process would be the withdrawal of either party, which is not expected to be easy or uneventful.

We should note that the completion of the process could be the successful organization and implementation of the Libyan elections, scheduled for December 2021.

What is UNSMIL Doing to End the Libyan Conflict?

While the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has publicly congratulated the Libyan people in several instances, the in-country situation still remains far from optimistic. The recent exchange of prisoners between the opposing sides and the successful organizing of municipal elections in Al-Zawiya Al-Gharbia and Ar-Rajban areas in the northwestern parts of the country, are definitely positive signs.

However, the current transitioning period of the mission, will be critical for the next steps on the process. The experienced diplomat Nickolay Mladenov — who was expected to succeed Ghassan Salamé as the Head of UNSMIL — recently turned down the position due to personal and family reasons. Mladenov has previously held key roles in the UN Mission in Iraq and in the Middle East Peace Process; additionally his appointment was expected to be welcomed by Turkey as the Bulgarian diplomat built strong ties with Turkey, while serving as the Foreign Minister of Bulgaria several years ago.

For the moment, Stephanie Williams will remain the Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL, until a new decision is reached for the permanent placement of the Head of the Mission.

Many Challenges Lie Ahead

Despite the positive signs, mainly derived from the exchange of prisoners, there are many challenges ahead, with one of the most prominent threats being related to the oil industry of the country. The LNA’s recent raid in Awbari (or Ubari) underscores this reality. UNSMIL has also strongly condemned the efforts of armed groups to intimidate the National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli. With oil exports being one of the main sources of revenue for the Libyan economy, any disruption in this sector could trigger hostilities and further destabilize the country.

Occasional skirmishes during December also indicate that the ceasefire agreement is not being fully adhered to, and an incidental unfortunate event could easily lead to another vicious cycle of violence. Finally, the harsh rhetoric and the military build-up from both sides is another worrying sign.

Turkey’s overt action and deep involvement in Libya — not only through the deployment of military forces but also through a direct intervention in the shaping of the political context — is also a critical destabilizing factor. The most telling example of this political involvement was the recent surprise resignation of al-Serraj — which rather disappointed Ankara — only to be revoked shortly after its announcement.

L'articolo Haftar Demands That Turks Leave Libya proviene da InsideOver.

According to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is working to make peace in Libya a reality in the near future.

Specifically, Conte extended an offer from the head of the country’s presidential council Fayez Al-Sarraj, to field marshal the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), General Khalifa Haftar. The offer asks Haftar to nominate a new prime minister for the national government as part of a political solution.

Italian diplomatic sources were quoted as saying that allowing Haftar to nominate a new leader has “a thousand flaws” as he could nominate someone who may be very good at the job, or he may choose someone weak enough to allow militia leaders to manipulate him.

Al-Serraj previously announced his willingness to resign his position when there is a new head of the council, but due to the failure to reach a consensus on who his replacement should be, he was forced to withdraw his resignation and continue his role.

Enabling Haftar’s Control Over Libya’s Government Has Big Risks

La Repubblica is right to argue that enabling the LNA chief to decide who should become the next Libyan prime minister carries many risks. He may well choose a leader who he can easily manipulate, but as Aidan Lewis wrote for Reuters, he holds significant sway over the Libyan peace process regardless. 

Haftar may have suffered some significant setbacks this year such as his troops being driven out of western Libya, and his failure to take control of Tripoli, but over the last six years he has built up a massive security apparatus in eastern Libya.

The blockade that the LNA general imposed on Libya earlier this year led to the closure of the main eastern oil terminals. Haftar then allowed oil to flow again in September, which demonstrates that he still has relevance left.

Haftar Still Enjoys Significant Support from Russia

Furthermore, it has been reported that the LNA can still depend upon support from France, the UAE and Russia. Moscow has recently been accused of using a Syrian airline to send mercenaries to Haftar, alongside Paris and Abu Dhabi. This has led to accusations by Dr Guma el Gamaty, a special envoy to Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) to Northwest Africa, that such a move adds strength to Haftar’s forces. With the support of three important nations, it is impossible to ignore the LNA.

Moscow is particularly anxious to not let the Turkish-backed GNA control the strategic city of Sirte, which remains under Haftar’s influence, as it could provide Russia with a gateway to dominate the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast. The Russian Government will continue to support Haftar so long as he can help the Russians advance their interests in Libya. This makes a permanent ceasefire even more complicated.

Peace is Better Than More War

Recent events have proven how difficult it is to end the Libyan conflict. Earlier this month, Libyan Defense Minister Salahaddin Namroush threatened to withdraw from a ceasefire agreement in his country because of Haftar’s actions. He called on the UN and peace-supporting nations to curb the LNA general following his attack on the southern town of Awbari, 964 kilometers south of Tripoli. Libya’s High Council of State decried it as a new violation of the ceasefire by the eastern warlord. In many ways, peace  nowdepends upon the LNA chief ending military action altogether.

Western influence has only made the Libyan war worse. For example, the 2018 Paris summit failed to consult the Libyan people or make significant progress on bringing together the war-torn nation.

But this time, Conte may be right to argue that Haftar should be provided with the opportunity to determine who becomes Libya’s next prime minister. He may select someone who is an utter disaster for the war-torn country, yet this could still be a better solution for the Libyan people than continuous fighting.

L'articolo Why Haftar’s Support is Crucial for the Libyan Peace Process proviene da InsideOver.

A proposal for the extension of the deployment of Turkish forces in Libya has been submitted for approval in the Turkish Parliament.

In January 2020, the Turkey’s Parliament approved the deployment of Turkish assets to Libya in support of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord GNA).

Turkey’s Previous Deployment Approval

According to that bill, the Turkish Forces would assist Tripoli for one year, including – but not limited to – logistics coordination, training, intelligence services and shipments of weapons, arms, and provision of technical equipment. The motion for the extension of the Turkish military presence has already raised concerns, as it comes at a moment where a ceasefire is ongoing between the opposing sides and the international community is urging for an arms embargo in Libya.

Ankara has officially announced that the latest moves of General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) are worrying, and a potential restart of the clashes could put at risk the Turkish interests in North Africa and the Mediterranean. It should be noted that Turkey has invested heavily in its Eastern Mediterranean presence and the Memorandum of Understanding with Tripoli has been a crucial and integral part of Turkish foreign policy so far in terms of its 2020 strategy.

Turkey is allegedly seeking the consolidation of the ceasefire agreement which has been in force since late October, under the condition that the GNA will maintain and potential expand its power and control across the country. The motion will be discussed in the Turkish Parliament in late December, and the most probable result is its approval by the majority of the MPs.

The establishment of Turkish assets in the country is fully aligning with my previous conclusions on Erdogan’s long-term plans for Libya.

Recent Incidents That Provoked Ankara’s Wrath

Earlier last week the Libyan National Army seized the Turkish commercial cargo ship Mabrooka as it was en route to the port of Misrata. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has harshly responded to the incident declaring that these are attempts to target the Turkish interests in the region, and such moves come at the expense of any efforts for a peaceful solution to the Libyan conflict.

The vessel was seized on the grounds that it entered a restricted zone, and did not answer to repeated calls from the coastal authorities. The incident came a few weeks after the Merchant Vessel (MV) Roseline A was boarded and inspected as per the standard operating procedures of the EU Operation IRINI; during the search, Turkish authorities rushed to officially deny the right to inspection, prompting the EU personnel to disembark the ship. The incident has been deemed as illegal by Ankara and caused friction between Turkey and Germany, considering that the inspection team operated off the German frigate Hamburg.

Is the Ceasefire at Stake?

While Turkish foreign policy dictates bold moves across Mediterranean and North Africa, the context of the Libyan ceasefire on the ground seems more and more fragile. GNA Defense Minister Salahaddin Namroush has warned that actions of Haftar and teh LNA are putting the ceasefire agreement at stake and could force Tripoli to withdraw.

An attack against a GNA military camp near Awbari last week was attributed to an LNA-affiliated militia. Namroush urged that such moves could trigger a new round of battles in the country. Awbari is located near the Sharara oilfield, one of the most important oilfields in Libya, therefore the latest attack could easily lead to a rapid escalation, without warning.

In the meantime, according to the latest information from the Sirte-Jufra Joint Operations Unit, Haftar is boosting the presence of LNA forces and military resources in the proximity of Sirte and Jufra. Reportedly during the weekend there has been a – possibly Russian – shipment of at least 23 armored vehicles, arms, and ammunition. These indicators raise further concerns for the viability of the current ceasefire deal.

Growing Presence of Foreign Fighters in Libya and Proxy War Scenario

Stephanie Williams, the UN Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Libya, highlighted in her opening remarks on the October agreement, that the immediate departure of all foreign fighters should be a prerequisite for the effective implementation of the ceasefire. More than a month later, Williams sounded the alarm again, stating that an estimated number of more than 20,000 foreign fighters are still in-country.

This fuels a serious crisis and constitutes one of the greatest challenges in Libya at the moment.  Despite the continuous negotiations and attempts for a long-term agreement, the EU and UN efforts for an arms embargo and the progressive monitoring of the situation on the ground, the mercenary numbers in Libya at the moment are growing exponentially and a major military build-up through foreign shipments for both sides is still ongoing.

Despite the random skirmishes and the expansion of mercenaries, the most important factor is essentially the ultimate intentions of the foreign forces involved. The Libyan Civil War has taken on all the characteristics of a proxy conflict over the last two years, the prospects for a stable and peaceful Libya that could go through an institutionalization process undisrupted, are depending on the long-term objectives of the major powers, backing the opposing sides.

A lasting ceasefire and peace would be desirable for Ankara, considering that current GNA elements could ensure their certain win in the elections planned for December 2021, thus prevailing all across Libya. Abu Dhabi and Cairo on the other hand treat this scenario as a catastrophe, considering that such a political outcome could boost the Muslim Brotherhood presence and undermine erratically the regional and domestic security status quo at their expense.

Even though those powers would also like to see stability in Libya, they demand that it should be achieved under their own terms, which means the marginalization of the GNA forces. Finally Russia seems to be benefiting from the extension of the conflict, gaining time and influence in the war-torn country. The combination of these particular circumstances and the conflicting interests of each side could possibly compromise the current truce any time and quickly drag the country back into chaos once again.

L'articolo Turkey Prepares to Extend Military Presence in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper made his first African tour this week for talks with officials in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. The main aim of the tour was to discuss how to limit the growing Russian influence in North Africa and the Mediterranean.

Tunisia-USA Defense Agreement

In Tunisia, the Pentagon chief signed a 10-year security cooperation pact with Tunisian Defense Minister Ibrahim Bartagi. The agreement envisages cooperation in fields such as freedom of navigation, sharing intelligence and disaster response operations, according to the Pentagon.

The American concerns over the increasing role of Russia, and also China, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region were evident in Esper’s statements during his visit to Tunisia.

“Today, our strategic competitors China and Russia continue to intimidate and coerce their neighbors while expanding their authoritarian influence worldwide, including on this continent,” he said during a ceremony in Carthage.

“And, together, we continue to counter the malign, coercive, and predatory behavior of Beijing and Moscow, meant to undermine African institutions, erode national sovereignty, create instability, and exploit resources throughout the region,” he added.

The defense secretary also signed a similar 10-year security agreement with Morocco that charts military cooperation between the two countries through 2030.

Russia’s Reach Grows in North Africa

Esper’s tour came amid Russian moves to bolster its foothold in neighboring Libya, where Moscow backs the Libyan National Army (LNA) of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar. Mercenaries from the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group are also fighting alongside Haftar’s forces against the Turkey-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

The Russian involvement in Libya is part of a regional strategy by President Vladimir Putin after the 2011 Arab Spring revolution to return to regions where Moscow used to be a key player.

Russia perceived the Arab Spring revolutions as part of a US-sponsored plan to carry out regime changes in the Middle East and North Africa, causing Moscow to lose its influence in the region.

As part of the new Russian strategy in the region, Moscow provided support to the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria against Turkey-backed opposition groups. The Russian military support has helped tip the tide of the war in Assad’s favor and gained Moscow a foothold in the pivotal Arab country.

Washington’s Fear of Russia’s Future on the Libyan Coast

Russia now has access to a naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean coast in Syria. This base can accommodate 11 warships and perform operational capabilities throughout the Mediterranean. Moscow also operates the Khmeimim airbase in the Syrian city of Latakia.

Russia has also involved itself in Libya following a NATO-backed uprising led to the ouster and subsequent death of ruler Muammar Gaddafi. Washington fears that if Russia managed to earn military bases on Libya’s coast, it would be able to threaten southern Europe and reduce US ability to maneuver militarily.

Russia has also managed to forge a strong relationship with the new regime in Egypt, where it signed a $25-billion agreement to build the country’s first nuclear power plant. Moscow has also maintained a strong close relations with Algeria, which has relied on the Russian arms sales for decades.

Washington’s allies Tunisia and Morocco have also edged closer to Russia in recent years. This increasing Russian influence was quite visible in Tunisia’s tourism industry, which is vital to the North African country’s economy.

Scrambled to halt the Russian advances, the Trump administration moved to dispatch Esper to North Africa in an attempt to convince officials in the region to join the US efforts to limit the Russian influence in MENA region.

Tunisia and Morocco: Major Non-NATO Allies

Washington sees both Tunisia and Morocco as major non-NATO allies, who can play a role in preventing Russian penetration into Africa, given their strategic location.

The Pentagon chief’s visit to Algeria was also an attempt by Washington to convince the country’s new leadership to play a more active role in combating militant groups in neighboring Libya and consequently helping diminish the Russian role in the country.

His visit came weeks before Algerian voters will cast ballot in a constitutional referendum that, if approved, would allow the country to send troops outside its border for peacekeeping missions.

In any case, Russia appears to be determined to regain its status as a key players in the MENA region, making use of the American retreat that began under the Barack Obama administration and continues under the Trump administration.

L'articolo US Looks to Draw North Africa Away From Russian Orbit proviene da InsideOver.

Morocco and Egypt recently presided over joint talks between rival leaders in Libya and it’s been reported that both sides have been able to secure some substantial breakthroughs, particularly regarding elections and uniting rival governments.

Dubbed the Libyan Dialog, the talks brought together five participants from the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), which controls the capital, Tripoli, as well as the northwest, and five figures from the House of Representatives (HoR), based in Tobruk.

An Agreement Seems Possible

Although the HoR’s Idris Omran did not provide further details on the objectives that both sides agreed to, the two groups said that they would meet again during the final week of September to finalize mechanisms that would implement the agreement.

Consultations also took place in Montreux, Switzerland, on September 7 to 9 under the auspices of the Center for Humanitarian Dialog. Stephanie Williams, the UN’s interim envoy to Libya, told Al-Jazeera that the Montreux talks “would provide a basis for all responsible Libyan stakeholders to forge the way forward.”

Elections in Libya May Soon Become a Reality

While it was not clear if any of the discussions in Morocco included binding agreements, members of both delegations said that one of the key points of agreement was to split positions in the ruling Council of State from among Libya’s three geographic regions.

Negotiators are due to meet in Switzerland on September 17, and they have agreed that elections must be held on a mutually acceptable constitutional framework.

Considering the GNA and the LNA, led by General Khalifa Haftar, have been engaged in a long civil war that has allowed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin to take advantage of the chaos in the war-torn country, this is a remarkable achievement.

If both sides play their cards carefully, they could realistically end the Libyan war in the near future.

Peace Seemed Unlikely Only a Few Months Ago

Steps toward peace did not seem possible months ago. In June, increased Turkish support allowed pro-GNA forces to seize control of northwest Libya, which devastated Haftar’s plans to occupy Tripoli. The strategic city of Sirte, which could provide Russia with a gateway to dominate the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast, also became a bone of contention between Ankara and Moscow at one stage. Until the war is over, a siege on the city still seems possible.

However, the Geneva talks will be much harder than the ones held last week. Arab League head Ahmed Aboul Gheit said that Arab states must oppose Turkish interference during a meeting in Cairo. Yet it is almost certain that both Turkey and Russia will want a stake in determining Libya’s future.

The Arab Weekly reports that the GNA was opposed to Turkey’s withdrawal from Libya and it is likely this issue will cause a stir in future peace talks. They added that Erdoğan was unhappy about being excluded from the Moroccan talks.

Russia and Turkey May Jeopardize Peace

Russian and Turkish ambitions in Libya could become an obstacle to peace and both nations may carve the country up between them. For example, Turkey could acquiesce to Russian control of al-Jufra in return for Sirte. It will be interesting to see if Ankara and Moscow fulfill their territorial aspirations in the region and how far they are willing to go to do so.

The Libyan people are also crucial for peace to become a reality. This was acknowledged by Russian Ambassador Aleksei Erkho. Thomas M. Hill of the US Institute of Peace believes that Libya’s citizens have played an active role in making peace possible through initiatives like successfully convincing young people in the city of Misrata to quit the local militia.

Therefore, the Libyan people themselves must provide their consent for any peace agreement.

The Libyan Dialog has helped guarantee the beginning of the end of the Libyan conflict, but there are still many stages to go yet.

L'articolo Why the Libyan Dialog is the First Step Toward Peace in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

On Friday, August 21, Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) issued a statement saying its leader Fayez al-Sarraj had given instructions to “all military forces to immediately ceasefire and all combat operations in all Libyan territories.”

Temporary Ceasefire

The Tripoli-based government’s plead for a truce was unexpected and soon received a similar call for a truce from Aguila Saleh Issa, the leader of an eastern-based parliament aligned to Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA).

The two sides mentioned the growing spread of the coronavirus in Libya as grounds for bringing the armed conflict to a temporary halt. Although with scarce testing, daily Covid-19 cases across the country rose by the hundreds in recent weeks, reaching a total of over 8,000 confirmed cases and more than 150 confirmed deaths.

The ongoing Libyan conflict has left the North African country with impaired infrastructure, not least its healthcare system, after almost a decade of relentless fighting. On Thursday, August 20, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) warned that the humanitarian crisis in Libya has deepened, amid the country’s abrupt cuts in oil production, blockades of its ports and, more recently, the spread of the coronavirus. The Red Cross also called for negotiations between the warring factions.

Skepticism in Sirte

Although the mutual call for peace shed some hope in the ravaged country, adding to the Libyan National Oil Company statement that same day that it was ready at last to resume oil operations at a rate close to the pre-COVID-19 rate, many people in Sirte were still skeptical.

The call for a ceasefire itself came in a time where the two belligerents’ armed forces were both heavily settled near the central city of Sirte. The coastal city, which also nears the country’s major oil terminals, became the conflict’s point of focus recently, bearing the new frontlines as Haftar’s forces settled around the city after the Turkish intervention pushed the LNA back from Tripoli in June.

Haftar’s forces, backed by Egypt and the UAE, among others, were attempting to seize Tripoli, where the GNA is based, for over a year since April 2019. Although recognized by the United Nations, the GNA mainly benefits from the support of Turkey and Qatar.

‘Deceptive Calm’

During a visit to Tripoli last week, Germany’s foreign minister Heiko Maas warned of a “deceptive calm” and noted that both sides were still arming themselves “on a massive scale” although there hadn’t been much confrontation in recent months. Maas also reiterated the United States’ call for a demilitarized zone in Sirte and Jufra.

Although there has been relatively little fighting since June, Turkey and the GNA seem poised to make further advances, even after Haftar’s forces withdrew to Sirte.

The LNA did not quickly respond to Sarraj’s call for peace on Friday, but on Sunday it said it deemed the new ceasefire attempt dubious.

“The initiative that Sarraj signed is for media marketing,” said Ahmed Mismari, the LNA’s spokesman. “There is a military build-up and the transfer of equipment to target our forces in Sirte.” Mismari even noted that the LNA was “ready to respond to any attempted attack on its positions around the coastal city of Sirte, and Jufra, to the south,” according to Reuters.

Too Many Actors

Observers have long argued that the conflict of Libya could not be solved by military means. But given the level of foreign meddling in the country, it has proven even harder to resolve diplomatically.

Turkey, who is at odds with its Mediterranean neighbors over energy reserves in the basin, soon sided with the Tripoli-based GNA, who promptly signed a maritime boundaries contract in favor of Ankara, while the United Arab Emirates and Egypt openly back Khalifa Haftar’s military rule. Other major powers, such as France and Russia, have also been accused of meddling in favor of Haftar.

In June, Egypt was among the first to warn the GNA —and Turkey— that attacks on Sirte and Jufra constituted crossing a “red line” that would systematically trigger an Egyptian military intervention.

Many Unsuccessful Peace Attempts So Far

All attempts to bring about peace to the Libyan people after almost a decade of war —most recently, the Berlin Summit earlier in January— stalled so far, not least because of the pressure exerted by foreign actors, on whom either factions heavily depend, to further their geopolitical and sometimes economic interests.

No longer than the following weekend, however, on Sunday, August 23, guns were fired in Tripoli to disperse hundreds of protesters who had gathered near the headquarters of the GNA to demonstrate over their squalid living conditions amid the current sanitary and economic crises.

L'articolo Glimmer of Hope for Peace in Libya, but Fear Lingers proviene da InsideOver.

During a news conference in Moscow on Thursday, Alexey Zaytsev, deputy spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that Russian and Turkish delegations will discuss the Libyan conflict and a possible ceasefire declaration. According to Zaytsev, the third round of consultations will be held in Moscow in the near future as the previous two rounds of consultations were held in Turkey. One was held in Istanbul in June and the other in Ankara in July.

This is a promising development, but if the third consultation goes ahead as planned, there are many obstacles that both countries need to overcome if they want to restore peace and stability to Libya.

The Libyan People Must Be Involved

If they want to avoid the mistakes that were made during the 2015 peace agreement in Morocco and the 2018 Paris summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan need to consult the Libyan people more. It is encouraging that Russian Ambassador Aleksei Erkho recently stated that a political solution to the conflict lies in the Libyan people themselves, and he is the first foreign official to recognize this. Thomas M. Hill of the US Institute of Peace believes that Libya’s citizens have played an active role in making peace a reality through initiatives like successfully convincing young people in the city of Misrata to quit the local militia. Therefore, both Ankara and Moscow should listen to the Russian Ambassador’s words if they want to end tensions in Libya.

Can Turkey Ease Tensions With Egypt?

Before Putin and Erdoğan have any hope of resolving their differences, Turkey should end its hostilities toward Egypt. Both Cairo and Moscow support the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, whilst the Turkish President supports the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Egypt is anxious that the GNA seeks to regain control over the LNA-controlled city of Sirte, which is vital for control over the nation’s oil sector. At the end of July, Egypt sent soldiers to Syria’s northwestern Aleppo province, near Idlib. Some 150 Egyptian soldiers arrived in Aleppo’s rural areas, and some have been deployed in the city of Saraqib to the south of Idlib. This proves that as tensions between Turkey and Egypt escalate, the latter’s forces are arriving closer to Turkish borders. Because of this reason alone, the third consultation would need to proceed as soon as possible to prevent Ankara and Cairo from going to war.

Sirte is the Key to Peace Between Russia and Turkey

The problem Putin has going into the third consultation is that Erdoğan has the upper hand in the Libyan conflict. Since the start of June, increased Turkish support has allowed pro-GNA forces to seize control of northwest Libya, which devastated Haftar’s plans to occupy Tripoli. Equally, Sirte provides Russia with a bargaining chip during the third consultation as the city is a gateway to dominate the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast. Fehim Tastekin of Al-Monitor argues that Turkey could acquiesce to Russian control over the city of al-Jufra in exchange for Turkish control over Sirte.

If the third consultation is a success, another outstanding issue is the interest that the USA and France have in ending this conflict. Considering US President Donald Trump supports the GNA, this provides the latter with leverage as they have the world’s most powerful country on their side. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron backs the LNA. Both leaders could counter the influence Moscow and Ankara have in Libya, but it remains yet to be seen whether Putin and Erdoğan would want them to get involved, especially when you consider France’s recent dispute with Turkey and the USA’s lack of interest in Libya in general.

The Libyan war has been happening for far too long and many nations that have got involved in it have only made it worse. The third consultation seems hopeful, but there is a long way to go yet before peace is restored to Libya.

L'articolo How Can Turkey and Russia Resolve Their Differences Over Libya? proviene da InsideOver.

Germany, France and Italy are increasing pressure to resolve the conflict in Libya, at least officially: Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Marcon and Italy’s Guiseppe Conte have stated openly that states that violate the UN arms embargo on Libya should be seriously punished. The only question now is how exactly this would happen.

Will Sanctions Be Enough to Enforce a Libya Ceasefire?

Germany, France and Italy have threatened to punish countries that fail to abide by the UN arms embargo on Libya. Chancellor Merkel, President Macron and Premier Conte said on the sidelines in a joint statement that they were ready to “consider imposing sanctions” should violations of the embargo at sea, on land or in the air continue of the EU special summit was published.

However, names of states that could be considered for sanctions are not mentioned in the declaration, even if the suspects are widely known. France, for example, has long accused Turkey of violating the arms embargo by delivering arms to the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). Turkey, in turn, accuses countries such as the United Arab Emirates and France of supplying the opposite side of the Libyan National Army (LNA) with weapons.

What About Operation Irini?

The EU launched Operation Irini in spring to monitor the Libyan arms embargo. The primary aim of the military operation is to stabilize Libya and to support the UN-led political peace process. In addition to arms smuggling, the EU operation is designed to prevent illegal oil smuggling. Moreover, the Libyan Coast Guard and Navy personnel will continue to be trained to help break the business model of trafficking and trafficking networks.

If the sanctions were actually enforced they would presumably be imposed on persons or companies involved in arms deliveries to Libya in the EU framework. Those affected should fear asset freezes and EU entry bans. The punitive measures could be based on reports from the United Nations on violations of sanctions. In this way, the knowledge gained during the EU operation Irini is also transmitted to New York for evaluation.

The Reality of the Libyan War

In Libya, an internationally recognized but almost powerless government is fighting in the capital, Tripoli, and a counter-parliament in the east of the country is dominating led by General Khalifa Haftar. The latter control the oil wells in the east and recently tried to conquer Tripoli, which did not succeed. For weeks, both sides have been preparing for a fight for the city of Sirte, which is essential for oil exports and is considered key to the outcome of the war.

Both warring parties are supported logistically, financially and militarily by foreign actors. Turkey and Qatar are behind the GNA government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Haftar and the LNA are supported by Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The USA had also helped Haftar in the fight against the Islamic State.

Proxy War Intensifies

Some of the foreign countries that support one of the warring parties are becoming increasingly aggressive in the Libyan civil war. The US military recently announced that Russian mercenaries were said to have laid landmines around Tripoli. The so-called Wagner group, a private unit equipped by the Kremlin, made 800 to 1,200 fighters available to Haftar, according to UN experts. Russia, as usual, denies playing a role in the conflict.

The situation could now come to a head again, as threats have been coming from Egypt since Monday that Cairo will go straight into the conflict after Parliament approves an intervention. In keeping with this, the Haftar camp in Egypt recently called for military operations to begin in the neighboring country.

The Importance of Egypt’s Role

The parliamentary mandate only provides that the Egyptian armed forces only have the right to intervene in Libya if they see “an immediate threat to security.” In Egypt’s view, however, this seems to be the case. Turkey has invaded Libya militarily, has occupied the country and is now threatening Egypt, Cairo claims.

Last month, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt warned that an attack by Libyan government forces on Sirte was a “red line.” Haftar’s troops have held the city so far but were pushed back with Turkish help after their failed offensive on Tripoli.

Civil war has raged in Libya since the downfall of long-term ruler Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. After a temporary relaxation of the situation, the violence escalated again. In 2014, a general election failed, and numerous militias began to fight for influence. By now the violence has spiraled completely out of control. While Europe has a key interest in stabilizing the country, Russia and Turkey, in particular, are continuously attempting to subvert European effort – albeit for different reasons.

L'articolo EU Seeks to Impose Sanctions Over Libya Ceasefire Violations proviene da InsideOver.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed France’s role in the Libyan conflict. Trump also held a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyep Erdogan last week to discuss the same matter. As Al-Monitor argues, these phone calls are significant because US National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien expressed sympathy for France over an incident in which the French Government accused Ankara of harassing French vessels as they sought to prevent a Tanzania-flagged ship allegedly smuggling weapons to Libya.

Although the US President has delegated Libyan matters to lower-level State Department officials, the US has been intervening in the Libyan war more frequently recently. In June, a US delegation pushed militias affiliated with both the Government of National Accord (GNA) and General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) to disband.

Macron Has Made Matters Worse

Although NATO is investigating the French-Turkish naval clash, France has issued demands that it wants its NATO allies to fulfill before rejoining the Mediterranean naval operation.

However, this is not the time for France to be pursuing its own economic and security interests, as Middle East Eye’s Jonathan Fenton-Harvey argues. Differences between Macron and Erdogan have exposed NATO’s deep divisions over Libya. After France withdrew from the alliance’s naval operation along the Eastern Mediterranean, it became engaged in antagonizing Ankara instead of seeking a diplomatic solution to resolve the conflict.

Furthermore, Macron’s earlier track record suggests that he is undermining efforts to restore peace in Libya. During the Paris summit aimed at reaching a political solution in 2018, many Libyans were anxious that the French Government intended to supplant UN efforts and steer peace talks towards its own self-interest. They also did not consult enough actors involved in the war.

Macron Has Been Acting in Self-Interest

Although Macron has been clumsy in the way he has attempted to initiate an end to the Libyan war, there is no doubt that he has a desire for peace nonetheless. In a recent joint statement with Italy and Germany, the French leader called on all Libyan actors to return to the negotiating table.

A lack of US involvement in the peace process has enabled Turkey and Russia to become the dominant forces in Libya. Recent events show that there is a need for both Macron and Trump to be more involved in ending the Libyan conflict. For example, Egypt’s parliament has authorized the deployment of troops in a move that threatens the stakes in the proxy civil war by increasing the potential for direct clashes between Egypt and Turkey.

Both France and the US could counter the influence that Moscow and Ankara have over Libya and Trump could use his relationship with Erdogan to help end tensions between the French and Turkish Presidents.

Trump and Macron Have Too Many Differences

The US and the UN could also issue sanctions against Haftar’s LNA considering the Libyan general has violated numerous UN Security Council resolutions.

Despite this, the biggest obstacle a Trump-Macron initiative would face would be the GNA. Macron is more inclined to support Haftar whereas Trump has a history of helping the GNA. In the summer of 2018, both American diplomats and the UN envoy prevented oil reserves from falling under Haftar’s control. The French President’s support for the LNA means that he will find it difficult to collaborate with the US in Libya.

Both the 2015 peace agreement in Morocco and the 2018 Paris summit failed because the Libyan people were not consulted about either one. As Thomas M. Hill of the US Institute of Peace argues, Libyan citizens have played an active role in making peace a reality through initiatives like successfully convincing some youth in the city of Misrata to quit the local militia. Therefore, to prevent a repeat of the mistakes made in 2018, Macron would need more actors involved in any peace process he and Trump supported.

Both Trump and Macron could play an active role in ending the Libyan war, but both leaders will need to find a compromise on their respected positions before they do.

L'articolo Could a Trump-Macron Initiative Bring Peace to Libya? proviene da InsideOver.

Unidentified jet fighters delivered an air-strike to Al-Watiya air base in the west of Tripoli on July 5. The strike received significant international attention as the civil conflict in Libya is escalating, and the foreign backers of the opposing sides are consolidating their in-country presences and roles.

Akar’s Visit and the Strategic Importance of the Base

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar, accompanied by the Chief of General Staff Yasar Guler, visited Western Libya last week. They met with key officials of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), which is being fought against by Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA). This was the second visit of high-ranking Turkish figures in a matter of weeks, since Berat Albayrak and Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the Turkish Ministers of Finance and Foreign Affairs respectively, also went to Tripoli in mid-June. These visits are indicative of the ever-growing Turkish interests in the Libyan front; Akar’s latest visit in particular emphasizes Turkish strategic planning around bolstering its military presence — and eventually its geopolitical influence — in the country.

Shortly after the completion of the Turkish Defense Minister’s trip, reportedly in the early hours of Sunday, July 5, a sudden jet-fighter attack took place on the Al-Watiya base. Fighter planes bombarded the base, with heavy military weapons deployed at the base suffering severe damage; there have been reports around personnel casualties, but these claims have not been officially confirmed until now.

GNA Seizure of Al-Watiya

Al-Watiya has been a key position for the LNA forces and Haftar’s effort to conquer Tripoli. In late May GNA forces recaptured the base, with the vital support of the Turkish Armed Forces. Without military and logistical assistance from Ankara, it is highly dubious if the GNA forces would have been able to retake the base and tip the balance of the ongoing conflict.

After the recapture of Al-Watiya, Ankara has been building up its military strength in Libya, by reportedly deploying F-16 fighters, armed drones, and batteries of the Raytheon MIM-23 Hawk missile system. The presence of such weapons systems in Al-Watiya constitutes a considerable advantage for the GNA-affiliated forces, significantly upgrading their strategic depth and bringing closer the possibility of a major attack against the Sirte base. Capture of the Sirte base would foreshadow the end of the civil conflict in favor of the Turkish-backed GNA. The unexpected Sunday airstrike has reportedly destroyed an important part of the aforementioned deployed weaponry and reshaped the context of the conflict once again.

One Strike, Many Potential Perpetrators

The strike came at a moment when Ankara has created too many open fronts and loose ends. Turkey’s heavy involvement in the Libyan front, and its aggressive policy in the Eastern Mediterranean has fueled tension not only with some of the major LNA-backing players in Libya, namely Egypt and the UAE, but also with Russia and France.

In the aftermath of the attack, there have been many speculations around who exactly is the perpetrator of the bombing. There have been references to Dassault Mirage or Dassault Rafale, as the fighter jets that carried out the strike to Al-Watiya. These types of French combat aircraft indicate that behind the attack could be either Cairo or Abu Dhabi. Mirage fighters are also being used by both the Egyptian and Emirati Airforce, however, in case the reports about Rafale are accurate. In this case Cairo is more likely to have carried out the attack, since this specific fighter jet is deployed only by Egypt and not the UAE.

At the same time, several sources indicate that Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) which has been crucial for the successful accomplishment of the operation, was provided to the attacking forces through the involvement of France. The possibility of a coordinated effort to carry out a deep strike against Turkish interests in Libya is a highly likely scenario, considering the provocative strategy that Ankara has adopted during the last year in the region and its growing rift with France.

Turkish Reaction and UN Concerns

The Turkish reaction in the immediate aftermath of the attack highlights Ankara’s intention to be more deeply involved in the Libyan conflict and leverage its current position. The Turkish Directorate of Communications, which partially serves as the Press Office of the Turkish President, announced shortly after the strikes that the LNA-controlled bases in Al Jufra and Sirte form priority targets for Ankara and the GNA forces. This statement clarifies that Turkey will definitely seek retribution for the attack, aiming to capture the Ghardabiya Airbase in Sirte, which is probably the last LNA stronghold and is also a red line for the Egyptian President al-Sisi and Cairo. Such a move will certainly boost Egyptian interference in Libya.

At the same time, Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has charged France with militarily aiding the Libyan National Army, while the Libyan Deputy Defense Minister of the GNA Salah Al-Namroush, declared that the attack against the al-Watiya base would not go unanswered.

Amidst the growing tension from all the sides involved and the likelihood of further escalation in Libya increasing day-by-day, the Spokesperson for the United Nations Secretary-General, Stéphane Dujarric, has reportedly expressed further concern about the fragile situation, urging all sides to adhere to the international calls for peace and agreements for a lasting ceasefire.

L'articolo Motives and Outcomes of the Al-Watiya Airstrike in Libya proviene da InsideOver.