The German warship FGS Hamburg is en route to join the EU-led Mission Irini. As the German Navy announced, the warship left the port of Wilhelmshaven on August 4 to join the task force. The deployed forces of Operation Irini, form a coalition with primary mission to monitor any illicit movements related to the Libyan civil war and implement the UN arms embargo in the North African country.

Putting the latest developments in a wider context, one must admit that Berlin is clearly trying to showcase that the German role is critical not only in the field of diplomacy but also in the developments on the ground — or in this case in the developments at sea.

FGS Hamburg and the Operational Upgrade of the Mission

FGS Hamburg is a Type 124 Class Guided Missile Frigate (FFG). With a displacement of 5800 tons, FGS Hamburg comes as a considerable addition to the HS Spetsai frigate of the Hellenic Navy and the ITS San Giorgio of the Italian Navy, which are already deployed in the area. The armament of the ship consists of a Mark 41 Vertical Launching System with RIM-66 Standard medium-range surface-to-air Missiles and RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles. Four secondary missile launching systems (Mark 141 and Mark 49) can be also found in the frigate, while OTO Melara 76 mm and Rheinmetall MLG 27 mm machine guns are included in the main weapon systems of the ship. Thales and Atlas Electronic L-long rage and surface radar systems are also used by the FGS Hamburg and will provide an additional benefit to the monitoring power and capabilities of the deployed assets. Finally, 2 Naval Helicopters Westland Sea Lynx Mk.88 will be stationed on the ship for the duration of the deployment.

Apparently the addition of FGS Hamburg to the mission contributes drastically to the operational capabilities of the task force but at the same time Berlin is making a political statement, over-stressing its re-emerging role in the new status quo of the troubled Mediterranean region.

Berlin Looks into Boosting its Role in the Mediterranean

FGS Hamburg will be part of the Operation Irini for five months, with 250 navy personnel being reportedly onboard. Prior to the deployment of FGS Hamburg, Germany has been contributing to the mission with only one P-3C Orion aircraft. The decision for the deployment of the German Navy frigate comes at a moment when Berlin is trying to boost its role in the Mediterranean in several fronts.

Since early 2020, Germany has been playing a pivotal role in the developments of the Libyan conflict During the Berlin Conference, held on January 19, 2020, Chancellor Angela Merkel has hosted a meeting where all the major regional players participated. The ultimate objective of the conference has been to assist the opposing sides coming to an agreement and setting the context for the steps forward, in order peace to be established and the state-building process to start promptly. The conference has addressed the key regional and international factors that have been fueling the crisis, but at the same it highlighted the significance of the German element in international politics.

Berlin as a Gatekeeper of Regional Balance

Following the recent escalation between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean Sea in late July, Berlin has once again emerged as a mediator and a gatekeeper of the regional balance. Germany not only intervened in the aftermath of the provocative Turkish NAVTEX but — as the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu divulged — Berlin has also organized an undisclosed trilateral meeting at some point before mid-July, among Greece, Turkey and Germany.

Last week, Germany took further steps to stress its role in the Libyan de-escalation process. Following the resignation of the UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame, discussions have been taking place for the successor of the Lebanese academic and the very structure of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). The US has reportedly tried to promote a specific candidate to overtake Salame’s role, but Germany responded via Dr. Christoph Heusgen, Germany’s Permanent Representative in the UN. Dr. Heusgen stressed that the UN Secretary-General should nominate the candidate without any US interference.

German Controversies Caused by Berlin’s Previous Actions

The tension in the Libyan front and in the Eastern Mediterranean also coincide with a critical moment in German politics. Since July 1 and until the end of the year, Germany holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Merkel’s close ally, Ursula von der Leyen is currently serving as the President of the European Commission, while Merkel herself is gradually moving to the end of her term without any intention to run for another one in 2021, as per her own statements. In this particular timing, both German institutions and Merkel would like to emphasize the stabilizing role of their country in a regional and international context.

On the other hand, besides the mediation efforts and military support that Berlin has been pursuing in order to secure stability in MENA and the Levant, controversy has been raised with regards to the arms deals that Germany has approved since the start of the year. According to data available from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), Berlin has proceeded forward on arm deals with some of the major foreign actors involved in the Libyan crisis, of a total value of approximately €331 million, specifically €308.2 million with Egypt, €15.1 million with Turkey and €7.7 million with the UAE, respectively. Such a move amid the escalation in the Libyan civil war and knowing the role that the aforementioned countries in the conflict hold has prompted several prominent accusations of misconduct and hypocrisy against Germany.

L'articolo German Navy Boosts Mediterranean Presence with Increased Commitment to Operation Irini proviene da InsideOver.

On a surprise move, Khalifa Haftar has visited Athens on Thursday 17 January, late evening.The next morning General Haftar met the Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nikos Dendias, before heading to the Hellenic Parliament, to meet Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The upcoming talks in Berlin have been at the top of the agenda between the Libyan strongman and Mr. Mitsotakis. Albeit the wide and enthusiastic coverage the visit has received from Greek media, there has been no official joint statement by General Haftar and the Greek side, once the talks have been completed.

Mr. Dendias has tried to highlight the key points of the meeting in an interview he gave on Friday night, 17 January, to the Greek state-owned broadcaster ERT. According to the Greek Minister, Athens would pursue – by all means – the establishment of an unconditional and open-ended ceasefire and at the same time the cancellation of the two Memoranda of Understanding between GNA and Turkey. Mr. Haftar is allegedly totally agreeing with the Greek pledges for the cancellation of the MoUs, a claim that makes absolute sense, considering that LNA wants to limit any Turkish involvement in the Libyan front. Mr. Dendias could not confirm if and to what extent General Haftar will put on the table the cancellation of MoUs, as a necessary condition for the smooth progress of the negotiations, during the Berlin summit tomorrow. It has also been stressed out that Greece is not seeing the current situation in the eastern Mediterranean as a zero-sum game between Ankara and Athens, and the ideal solution should guarantee benefits for all the sides involved.

At the same time Greek PM, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, stated that the absence of Greece in the Berlin summit is a sad fact and Germany has overlooked the crucial role of Greece, as a factor of stability in the region. Mr. Mitsotakis clarified that Greece was willing to veto any decision with regards to the Libyan crisis, that would not reject the validity of the two MoUs between Tripoli and Ankara. A statement that has been probably a part of the Government’s communication policy, considering that even if Athens tries to veto any decision about Libya in the level of EU foreign ministers, the impact on the outcome of the process would be minimal. Besides, we highly doubt that Greece could proceed to vetoing any such plans, in the first place.

Back to Haftar’s presence in Athens, we should look at the timing and the implications of the visit. Greece has been struggling to establish herself as an equal negotiating party on the Libyan process, especially after the Turkish latest moves, that impact directly the Greek vital national interests. Athens failure to secure a position in the table of negotiations in Berlin had a significant political backlash for the government, which had to be turned around the soonest.

Mr. Dendias has visited Libya and met with General Haftar in late December 2019 and expressed the Greek support to the LNA efforts. The two parties have agreed to hold another meeting in Athens, and the current timing could not be better for Greece. The absence of a joint statement and the limited comments from the Greek side about what has been discussed, indicates that little progress has been made in terms of promoting the Greek demands against the Turkish provocations in the region. On the other hand, the Greek major media -most of them friendly to the current administration- have presented the event, as an unprecedented Greek success that could constraint the EU and Turkish options and the only possible outcome from the Sunday negotiations would be the most favorable one for Greece. Briefly Haftar’s meeting has been sold to the Greek public, as a game –  changing development, speculating that Haftar is planning to decisively promote the Greek positions in Berlin. Apparently this approach is ignoring the fact that Haftar forces are waging war for almost six years in Libya, and the top priority for the General is to consolidate his power all over the country and secure his very survival.

Assessing the current power balance in-country and the ongoing international developments related to Libya, we believe that Haftar’s role will be considerably upgraded, opening the road to the General to eventually control the country. The Greek side is relying on this scenario to capitalize on the potential gains, assuming that things will play out well for the Libyan General. However, we should always consider that several regional powers have also supported Haftar, including Egypt, UAE and allegedly Israel. These powers have provided much more substantial support long before Greece and will certainly seek to use the potential Haftar’s prevalence in their best interest.

L'articolo Implications of Haftar’s Visit in Greece proviene da InsideOver.

Sergey Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, was in Washington last week for meetings with US President Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo, his secretary of state. Lavrov’s visit at The White House came as the House of Representatives concluded its impeachment hearings primarily centered on evidence the American leader attempted to extort a political favor from Ukraine by holding up foreign aid. Considering the 2016 allegations of collusion, the pending impeachment vote, and the upcoming elections, Lavrov’s visit to the US raised eyebrows. The two nations understandably have other issues to discuss outside of US domestic politics, but if there was any concern of a Kremlin official meeting Trump, it was amplified when both sides recalled the subjects of their discussion.

Two Tales

Whereas Pompeo and The White House insisted Trump personally “warned against any Russian attempts to interfere” in the 2020 presidential election, Lavrov denied elections were discussed at all.

“I will leave to the White House to give the details of what is said. I never talk about what the President says in those private settings, but I can tell you that Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statement is not accurately a reflection of my recollection of that meeting,” Pompeo countered. “[T]here is no mistake that President Trump made clear in the meeting that he had with Foreign Minister Lavrov and the rest of the Russian team that was there that President Trump personally, and America, finds their meddling in our elections unacceptable in the very same way that I had said it earlier to Foreign Minister Lavrov.”

Lavrov not only denied the conversation took place, but also took umbrage with the notion that The Kremlin even interfered in the election. In denying this basic premise, he argued there are no facts to support the argument Russia meddled in the election, which was well-documented in Mueller’s 500-page report. Furthermore, Lavrov stated that because of the undue focus on the “alleged” interference, other work between Russia and the US has been inhibited. These topics include nuclear arms control and weapons shipments to Libya.

Unrestricted

In February, the Trump administration announced the US would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. The agreement was a landmark deal when it was signed at the end of 1987 as it heralded the beginning of the end of the Cold War. The INF forbid both nations from possessing land-based missiles and launchers with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometres. Consequently, the two states drastically reduced their stockpiles.

Former US President Barack Obama negotiated the New START treaty, a followup to the 1991 START I agreement. Like the INF, New START placed limits on the nuclear programs, capping the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550. It also placed limits on missile launcher systems and heavy bombers.

Trump has signaled his intention not to renew the New START treaty, which expires in 2021. Complicating matters further, the treaty expires on Feb. 5, 2021, leaving no time for Trump’s successor to broker an extension or work a new deal, if Trump is defeated in the election. Since the American president has chosen not to renew the treaty or work toward a new one, it seems the US and Russia will be without an agreement for the first time in over three decades.

Although Russia is willing to extend it, Trump is refusing because he wants to see China added to the deal. China’s nuclear arsenal is comparatively small, but experts estimated it will double its stockpile over the next 10 years. China is not a member to any nuclear treaty and, as Lavrov declared, Beijing is uninterested.

Hinging a critical nuclear deal such as New START on a condition beyond Moscow’s control is unreasonable. Nuclear arms cannot be left to irrational demands especially when the other party is powerless to fulfill them.

Libya Embargo

On Libya, Pompeo called for a peaceful solution in coordination with The Kremlin to limit the weapon flow. Libya has been in a state of civil war since April when General Khalifa Haftar, a Gaddafi holdover, began a campaign to take control of the government. Washington has evidence Haftar’s Libyan National Army is supplied by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia.

“We want to work with the Russians to get to the negotiating table, have a series of conversations that ultimately lead to a disposition that creates what the UN has been trying to do,” Pompeo said. “Foreign Minister Lavrov told me directly yesterday he is prepared to be part of that, to continue it. I reminded him that there is a weapons embargo that is still in place in Libya, and that no nation ought to be providing incremental materiel inside of Libya.”

The US and Russia often find themselves on different sides when it comes to the Middle East and North Africa, particularly under Trump as the US has attempted to extricate itself from the regions. The US still looks to put its weight behind international affairs, however, and Trump has publicly called on Haftar to end his campaign. As in Yemen, when outside powers invest resources for war, conflict becomes difficult to stop. In the case of Russia, there are few options that will not risk an international incident except harsh words during an Oval Office visit.

L'articolo Lavrov Visits Trump and Pompeo but Contradicts Their Story proviene da InsideOver.