Germany, France and Italy are increasing pressure to resolve the conflict in Libya, at least officially: Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Marcon and Italy’s Guiseppe Conte have stated openly that states that violate the UN arms embargo on Libya should be seriously punished. The only question now is how exactly this would happen.

Will Sanctions Be Enough to Enforce a Libya Ceasefire?

Germany, France and Italy have threatened to punish countries that fail to abide by the UN arms embargo on Libya. Chancellor Merkel, President Macron and Premier Conte said on the sidelines in a joint statement that they were ready to “consider imposing sanctions” should violations of the embargo at sea, on land or in the air continue of the EU special summit was published.

However, names of states that could be considered for sanctions are not mentioned in the declaration, even if the suspects are widely known. France, for example, has long accused Turkey of violating the arms embargo by delivering arms to the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). Turkey, in turn, accuses countries such as the United Arab Emirates and France of supplying the opposite side of the Libyan National Army (LNA) with weapons.

What About Operation Irini?

The EU launched Operation Irini in spring to monitor the Libyan arms embargo. The primary aim of the military operation is to stabilize Libya and to support the UN-led political peace process. In addition to arms smuggling, the EU operation is designed to prevent illegal oil smuggling. Moreover, the Libyan Coast Guard and Navy personnel will continue to be trained to help break the business model of trafficking and trafficking networks.

If the sanctions were actually enforced they would presumably be imposed on persons or companies involved in arms deliveries to Libya in the EU framework. Those affected should fear asset freezes and EU entry bans. The punitive measures could be based on reports from the United Nations on violations of sanctions. In this way, the knowledge gained during the EU operation Irini is also transmitted to New York for evaluation.

The Reality of the Libyan War

In Libya, an internationally recognized but almost powerless government is fighting in the capital, Tripoli, and a counter-parliament in the east of the country is dominating led by General Khalifa Haftar. The latter control the oil wells in the east and recently tried to conquer Tripoli, which did not succeed. For weeks, both sides have been preparing for a fight for the city of Sirte, which is essential for oil exports and is considered key to the outcome of the war.

Both warring parties are supported logistically, financially and militarily by foreign actors. Turkey and Qatar are behind the GNA government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Haftar and the LNA are supported by Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The USA had also helped Haftar in the fight against the Islamic State.

Proxy War Intensifies

Some of the foreign countries that support one of the warring parties are becoming increasingly aggressive in the Libyan civil war. The US military recently announced that Russian mercenaries were said to have laid landmines around Tripoli. The so-called Wagner group, a private unit equipped by the Kremlin, made 800 to 1,200 fighters available to Haftar, according to UN experts. Russia, as usual, denies playing a role in the conflict.

The situation could now come to a head again, as threats have been coming from Egypt since Monday that Cairo will go straight into the conflict after Parliament approves an intervention. In keeping with this, the Haftar camp in Egypt recently called for military operations to begin in the neighboring country.

The Importance of Egypt’s Role

The parliamentary mandate only provides that the Egyptian armed forces only have the right to intervene in Libya if they see “an immediate threat to security.” In Egypt’s view, however, this seems to be the case. Turkey has invaded Libya militarily, has occupied the country and is now threatening Egypt, Cairo claims.

Last month, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt warned that an attack by Libyan government forces on Sirte was a “red line.” Haftar’s troops have held the city so far but were pushed back with Turkish help after their failed offensive on Tripoli.

Civil war has raged in Libya since the downfall of long-term ruler Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. After a temporary relaxation of the situation, the violence escalated again. In 2014, a general election failed, and numerous militias began to fight for influence. By now the violence has spiraled completely out of control. While Europe has a key interest in stabilizing the country, Russia and Turkey, in particular, are continuously attempting to subvert European effort – albeit for different reasons.

L'articolo EU Seeks to Impose Sanctions Over Libya Ceasefire Violations proviene da InsideOver.

An end could be in sight for the civil war in Libya as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently said that “some agreements” have been reached with his US counterpart Donald Trump. According to Erdogan, these developments could herald a “new era” in Libya. Both the US and Turkish Presidents did not provide any details about what their agreements entail, but it shows that Washington can still play a positive role in international affairs as its reputation for intervening in the Middle East has been damaged in recent decades. Either way, both Turkey and the US are likely to strengthen their cooperation in Libya in the foreseeable future.

In a further boost to the Libyan peace process, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed on Monday that it is vital for both their nations to create the necessary conditions for peace through collaboration.

More Countries are Supporting Peace

The two foreign ministers also agreed that a new United Nations envoy must be appointed quickly.

Furthermore, Erdogan hinted that he would discuss Russia’s role in Libya with President Vladimir Putin, including the supply of Russian planes and Pantsir air defenses to Haftar’s forces.

Egypt had called for a ceasefire on Monday, as part of an initiative that proposed an elected leadership council for Tripoli. Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), who also support the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Khalifa Haftar’s leadership also welcomed the idea.

Although all the participants in the Libyan conflict appear to be preparing for peace, Putin is not reducing his support for Haftar. The LNA lost al Watiya on May 18, and then they retreated from Tripoli when the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) drove them out of the capital. This triggered the arrival of Russian combat aircraft in eastern Libya.

The GNA is the Lesser of Two Evils

That is why Trump’s intervention in Libya is welcome at this time. Haftar is a threat to American interests and he is not the hero that he claims to be. As Frederic Wehrey and Jeffrey Feltman of the New York Times suggest, his army depends heavily upon militias who have committed war crimes. The LNA general opposes democracy and totalitarianism is an inadequate solution to long-term peace in the Middle East. A Haftar victory would also strengthen Putin’s interests in the Middle East, which is why the weak GNA could be seen as the lesser of two evils in this conflict. 

With the Turks and the Russians both pursuing their own interests in Libya, America has an opportunity to act as an honest broker between both sides.

US Intervention Can Make a Difference

The US has a track record of helping the GNA. In the summer of 2018, when Haftar’s forces seized oil reserves in central Libya, both American diplomats and the UN envoy prevented these resources from falling into the LNA’s hands.

But America should have also issued sanctions against Haftar sooner. They only threatened to do so in March, but considering other Libyan militia leaders have had similar measures imposed on them, so should the LNA. Haftar has violated many UN Security Council resolutions and that is why both US and UN sanctions apply to him.

The Libyan peace process would also be more legitimate with participation from the Libyan people, too. As Thomas M. Hill of the U.S. Institute of Peace argues, the peace agreement negotiated in Morocco in 2015 was viewed as illegitimate because it was negotiated by political elites who failed to consult their own constituents.

The Libyan People Should be More Involved

Many Libyans have also mediated between tribes to prevent conflict and to generate opportunities for shared economic growth in the southern city of Ubari. They have also collaborated to solve problems like the indiscriminate use of celebratory gunfire in the city of Sebha.

Therefore, the US still has a part to play in Libya, even if it means working with the GNA and Erdogan, because the alternative under the Russian-backed LNA is much worse. But the time has also come for the Libyan people to participate more actively in the peace process.

L'articolo Can Trump Collaborate with Erdogan to Achieve Peace in Libya? proviene da InsideOver.